Before the Cahill/Gonzalez/Bailey trades this offseason, we were looking at a middle-of-the-pack farm system. Thanks to the top notch pitching we traded away, Billy Beane restocked the farm, and suddenly moved the slider to win a few years away from now. As you can see, last year's Baseball America #1 prospect Grant Green has been bumped down to the second half of this list due to new arrivals of Jarrod Parker, Brad Peacock and A.J. Cole (also due to Green's shift from SS to OF).
The AN community has voted Jarrod Parker and Michael Choice at #1 and #2 in our Community Prospect list. The consensus list tallies 9 of these top prospect lists and really doesn't show too many surprises. Each prospect was assigned points based off of how they placed (#1: 10 points, #2: 9 points, etc). I've listed all the sources after the jump.
Does this match up to what you expected, or do you think there's some guys that may be more deserving of top 10 spots?
Prospects #11-15 shook out like this:
#11 OF Michael Taylor
#12 OF Jermaine Mitchell
#13 RHP Faustino De Los Santos
#14 SS Yordy Cabrera
#15 OF Aaron Shipman
New A's blog, A's Farm, did a pretty good consensus breakdown this weekend, while with similar results, includes some notes on each with ETA.
Here's the full list of prospect lists that the graphic was sourced from:
-Baseball Prospectus
-Baseball America
-Minor League Ball
-Perfect Game
-Top Prospect Alert
-Baseball Prospect Nation
-Seedlings to Stars (Preview list)
-Jonathan Mayo on MLB.com
Check out FUNGraphs.info or follow me @cobradave for more.
0 recs | 33 comments
DLS
still has prospect status? that surprises me, i woulda thought he’d exceeded the amount of necessary days to be on the 25 man roster.
i chose aaron shipman, high ceiling, high obp last year.
guessatomo - February 6, 2012
Fautino is, as far as I know, no longer considered a "prospect"
(And I am even more sure that his first name does not contain an “s”.)
Nico - February 6, 2012
He showed up on some of the lists, so I kept him in the poll.
I should have put an * next to it.
David Fung - February 6, 2012
Faustino
Played Bud Bundy on Married With Children. ; )
CmdrKhraanik - February 6, 2012
Does he get to make a special deal? Head for the crossroads?
Not my worry if he wants to trade a little eternal damnation for 120 saves over the next three years.
paris7 - February 7, 2012
Hmm...you come up with Goethe, I come up with a Fox sitcom.
One of us is a very shallow person, and that person is me.
CmdrKhraanik - February 7, 2012
If at Faust you don't succeed...
Nico - February 7, 2012
i you would most likely be wrong then
i’ve seen it spelled both ways but i believe most improperly drop the “s”
heartstopper - February 7, 2012
No, it's definitely "Fautino"
It’s only spelled with an ‘s’ when someone misspells it because it “seems like there should be an ‘s’ in it”.
Nico - February 7, 2012
My bad.
David Fung - February 8, 2012
No disrespect, but what's the point of this image?
It doesn’t tell me anything more than a table would. It doesn’t even have any special data in it, like maybe the average slotted position to the first decimal based on each of the sources, or even your point system. It just seems like it’s a graphic for the sake of making a graphic, when the data could be represented in a better format, or the format could be used to show better data.
LoneStranger - February 6, 2012
The colors are pretty...
the_rozeboom - February 6, 2012
Could have used the colors
to designate Pitcher or Position player
fruitattack - February 6, 2012
Ooh.
I should have done that. Good call.
David Fung - February 6, 2012
agreed...
why is this in a “graphic” if said graphic illustrates….nothing?
oakballnack - February 8, 2012
Hey thanks for mentioning my list
at A’s Farm. We actually got the exact same results at #1-8. Then we’ve got Milone at #9, Taylor at #10, and Cowgill actually came in at #11 – but it’s pretty arbitrary at that point. Man, I really like our Top 5 prospects though. I think those guys are as can’t miss as it gets. I’d be very surprised if they’re not all contributing in a big way on the major league roster in a couple years. Can’t wait to see Parker, Peacock, Gray and Cole striking out an (hopefully) aging Albert Pujols!
wcmori - February 6, 2012
We're on the same page. =)
David Fung - February 6, 2012
"Can't miss" = "Could very well miss..."
There ain’t no way of knowin’. A few years ago Chris Carter was “can’t miss”.
the_rozeboom - February 6, 2012
"can't miss as it gets"
Does anyone have info on top pitching prospects vs. top hitting prospects success rates in the majors?
wcmori - February 6, 2012
I was just being a sarcastic know-it-all...
I guess I’ve just been a little cynical ever since Van Poppel.
the_rozeboom - February 6, 2012
haha
Billy Frijoles - February 6, 2012
Van Poppel, Dressendorfer, Zancanaro et al
Still curious if anyone’s got any hard stats on % of top minor league pitching prospects who succeed in the majors as opposed to top minor league hitting prospects who succeed – not % of draftees who succeed, but top prospects who’ve actually got game time in the minors.
wcmori - February 6, 2012
None of the above, for the poll.
I would dramatically rearrange the order, but those 10 are the same as my 10.
iglew - February 6, 2012
Very nice
The only website’s opinion you’re missing there is Bullpen Banter.
/shameless self plug
Wiers103 - February 6, 2012
Is your list updated?
I think all I could find was the list pre Cahill/Gonzalez/Bailey trades.
David Fung - February 6, 2012
they did an updated list
after yu darvish signed. all the teams that needed updating were thrown into one thread
guessatomo - February 6, 2012
Draft order updated
I guess the draft order is preety much set, minus a few type B’s
A’s draft at
11
34
47
61
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/ask-ba/2012/2612924.html
Slide Giambi - February 6, 2012
Mark Ellis netted a type B pick
I wish that could have been included as part of the trade, i.e. we’ll take your worthless minor league relief pitcher plus the type B pick that Ellis is going to yield.
Billy Frijoles - February 6, 2012
Also...this was copied and pasted from your link
I guess that’s how much DSL stats matter…
I have no idea what 50/Extreme means.
Billy Frijoles - February 6, 2012
I would have rated him as Xtreem!/Do the Dew, but that's just me.
DDroney - February 7, 2012
This is ludicrous logic
Yes, the DSL is a very low level of pitching/competition, and yes, it maybe comparable or only slightly ahead of very good high school divisions in the states, BUT they rank prospects ALL the time that were drafted out of high school and either didn’t play because they signed late or a minor injury or concerns with fatigue etc.
Bubba Starling is ranked as KC’s #2 overall prospect – he’s never played professional ball as far as I can tell, the highest level he’s played at is High School. So if De La Cruz played in a league whose stats are
how is he not considered for a higher ranking despite the fact that there are multiple high school prospects that are on various other club’s top 10’s. It seems like a clear bias against international prospects that don’t have big name recognition.oakballnack - February 8, 2012
That is a great point...I didn't really think of it that way.
I thought the guy was full of shit with the 50→>EXTREME!! ranking (seriously wtf does that mean?) but yes, he does indeed illustrate that he is full of shit pretty clearly.
As you rightly point out, if DSL stats are more meaningful than high school…then we should be even more impressed that he dominated that league, not less.
His next sentence kind of says it all
But they are fine judging prospects against HS competition all the time. I wonder if he’s even read a real scouting report on the guy or watched some video.
Billy Frijoles - February 9, 2012
Where's the beef?
To me the underlying problem for the A’s is that they are coming up way short in the area where, given their perennial financial situation, it is paramount that they excel — the draft. Their drafts have been mediocre in the post-Moneyball era.
Until they restocked their farm system this winter by trading the three young All-Stars for several prospects, their organization was rated near the bottom. Even now with the influx of new prospects in the system, the reports I have seen don’t have them in the top 10 in baseball.
It could be these independent judges of talent are wrong and the A’s are right. But as far as those prospects who have come up in recent years, it would appear that the system simply has not born enough fruit. This time three years ago, true, the A’s prospects were rated second only to the Rangers’, but that high ranking was helped much by the prospects who came in the trades of Haren, Swisher, Harden and Blanton in the 2007 offseason and during the 2008 season. And we’re still waiting for those ships to come in.
Overall, in looking at Oakland’s drafts since the 2002 Moneyball draft, I have to ask this: Where’s the beef.?
nativetexanasfan - February 8, 2012
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