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Impact Bats and The Need For Them Now

The A's can find young pitching. You may have noticed this over the last dozen years. First, there was Hudson, Zito, and Mulder. They were complemented by Ted Lilly and Cory Lidle for a couple of seasons. Rich Harden showed all the talent in the world, but couldn't stay on the field. Joe Blanton came up through the minors and Dan Haren was acquired from the Cardinals. We watched Greg Smith and Dana Eveland get a chance to prove they were quality major league starters (they weren't). Then the next wave hit, featuring Dallas Braden, Brett Anderson, Trevor Cahill, and Gio Gonzalez, but also included Josh Outman, Vin Mazzaro, and Tyson Ross. Even Brandon McCarthy, who seems like he's been around forever, is only 28.

Since Jason Giambi, Miguel Tejada, and Eric Chavez arrived though, the A's have not landed a single impact bat. Their best hitters over the last decade include Josh Willingham (one season), Jack Cust (two seasons), Daric Barton (one season), Frank Thomas (one season), and Jermaine Dye (one season). The closest thing to a home grown position player "star" is Nick Swisher.

Star-divide

It's not for lack of trying. The A's have drafted a bunch of position players in the first few rounds. They're in free agency discussions every offseason, even when it seemingly makes little sense. Last year, they tried to sign Lance Berkman and Adrian Beltre, as some pundits/bloggers/fans were screaming against the moves. Those two guys combined for .298/.374/.554 with 63 homers, 199 RBI, and 10.4 rWAR.

As Nico noted Monday,

But what about the fact that come 2014, the A's won't be moving into their new stadium -- assuming they do move into one -- for another two years? I've never seen the goal as having to be "Start contention the year you move in." Much better to arrive a contender. First of all, attendance patterns are well known: Attendance lags a year behind the success or failure of a team. The A's want to move into a new stadium known as "that winning team that's coming!" and Cespedes gives them a better chance to do it.

Which is exactly right. I would almost view the deal for Yoenis Cespedes as a three-year, $36 million contract. Don't get me wrong, I think Cespedes will provide value in 2012. But the A's aren't paying him for those wins. In 2013, there should be enough young players at the big league level to get excited. By 2014, they should be fairly competitive; with a resolution regarding the possibility of a new ballpark, it could be a very exciting time for A's fans. Having Cespedes around also allows the A's to possibly attract free agents in the next couple years with anticipation of the new ballpark.

If you consider Cespedes a "prospect*," the A's have seven or eight of the best 100 in baseball, most of whom should be up by the end of 2013. That's a lot of talent to potentially bring to a major league team. But again, most of them are pitchers (Gray, Peacock, Parker, Cole). Even the impact position player prospects have question marks (Choice, Green, Norris). The A's needed a centerpiece for their rebuilding effort, and I think they found it in Yoenis Cespedes.

*Personally, I don't think Cuban/Japanese imports should be considered prospects or should be eligible for Rookie of the Year Awards. The guy is 26. Of course there's uncertainty as to transferring his skills to MLB, but there's little to project. He can hit, he can run, he can field, and he's shown it for years. Remember this when Yu Darvish wins Rookie of the Year in October, having spent the last half decade dominating the second baseball league on the planet. Rant ended.

Plus, we all get the added benefit of watching Coco's noodle arm in right field this season.

0 recs  |  119 comments

Comments

dont

This has been the same exact story for the last 5 or so years. Problem is that the prospects who have developed into good major leaguers are shipped out and then we get to start over again.

The only reason to believe it will be different this time is the chance of a new stadium. In reality, actually playing in one before 2016 is probably a long shot, so I don’t see any reason to believe the team will behave any differently in the near future.

I’ll still watch the team and hope for the best, but I don’t think we have even one MLB LEAGUE AVERAGE batter in the lineup. Yoenis could be a total flop in MLB, or just merely average, still leaving the A’s with a lot of work to do in amassing a decent MLB lineup.

Then again, look at the 2010 Giants. Buster Posey and a few veterans, plus great pitching of course.

LOL I guess that’s why we watch, and why the A’s don’t completely throw in the towel and do a proper Marlins-type rebuild, although I really think they should.

Jemile Weeks?

He seems above average to me, but I’m not looking at any metrics.

We actually have several average-or-better hitters

Weeks, Reddick, Coco, Sizemore, and possibly Barton (who was far more than average in 2009-2010).
We didn’t trade any hitting this offseason, so I’m not sure why you disagree with this article. You just sound mad.

While technically you're correct, in that by ZiPS, no A's hitter is projected to have an OPS+ above 100

I don’t think that’s what you’re referring to. There are several players, however, such as Cespedes, Reddick, Barton, Sizemore, and Crisp who could easily reach 100 OPS+ or more.

Where Does Choice Ultimately Go?

We know there are no guarantees with of our recently purchased or traded for OFs (you know the list by now), but I find it interesting that we have 4 CFs in our house, namely Green, Choice, Crisp and El Cubano.

Early thoughts about the fates of these players makes me believe that Green will be too light of a hitter to take a corner spot, Crisp is gone before the season ends, Choice will tear up AA or AAA and force Oakland’s hand but not enough to make them budge on moving Smith, the Bostonian or anyone else on the parent club.

I'm not sure it's fair to call Green a CF at this point

Green is a bad-glove SS who will never make it to the majors at his original position. He’s been moved to CF but at this point has all of 47 games in CF since, I dunno, Pony League. And he has fairly significant problems as a hitter, as well.

are you including innings in the AFL?

there have been reports that his transition to playing center was pretty smooth, and his slight change in stance helped him out some

I have heard he played a decent CF as well

think it was on the Up & In podcast w/ Goldstein

That's a good point

I’m not including AFL games. Quick check: he seems to have played 26 games in the AFL this year, though in the batting leaders they list him at RF, not CF.

FWIW his slash stats were: .290/.342/.551 9 2B, 2 3B, 5 HR, with 8 BBs and 26 Ks.

Welp. I'd take those numbers from a CF any day of the week.
He's 24 and he's not doing that against major leaguers

And the AFL is a notorious hitters’ league.

Are you trying to tell me

that a player does in the AFL isn’t a mirror image of what they’ll do in the MLB?! BLASPHEMY!

Could be a good a problem to have (too many CFs)

But it’ll likely sort itself out.

1. Can Cespedes actually play above average center?
2. Can Crisp stay healthy?
3. Most people think Choice will move off of CF soon.
4. Can Green hit?

Having 4 CF's and two that can play passable or better CF in Reddick and Cowgill is a very good and rare problem to have

You can look at it this way: Even with the question marks about each OF, we have so many that can be good major leaguers that down the road we should be satisfied with whatever OF appears out of the fog.

Side note: When Choice is ready, the team WILL find a place for him.

Grant Green

Any idea if his bat (or glove) can play at 3b?

Is his glove good enough to be a backup infielder

The only game I’ve seen him play was an all star game and he didn’t look good. I don’t see a starting role for him in the outfield unless he has another 20 hr season.

Eric Chavez

His glove at 3rd was awful we he first started and look what happened with him.

I like the idea of moving Green to 3rd this year and letting him play a whole season at AAA. If he does well, then we can move him up in September to get some major PT. If he sucks, then we can move him back to the outfield or even first. Maybe Green and Parker can even split time at third????

When he started he played SS, not 3B

And Wash made him into a Gold Glove Third baseman.

So, you are saying Green will be traded to Texas and then become a GG AllStar?
would you be surprised if that happened?
Sadly, ....no. :(
Eric Chavez was 21 in his first full season in the majors at 3B after a Sept callup when he was 20

and he won his first GG at the age of 23.

Grant Green turned 24 last September.

It doesn’t make sense to use Chavez’s career development as a guide for what Green might do. Even in a best-case scenario, Green is 4 or 5 years behind Chavez.

As to moving him back to the OF of to 1B: 1) as far as I know there’s no evidence at all that he can play OF in the Majors, just the observation that he’s a good athlete and 47 games in CF last year in AA. 2) The last thing the A’s need is another 1B, and Green has lots of work to do before he’ll be even an okay hitter in the Majors.

Green isn’t a bust yet, but his progress has been derailed in two huge ways: he has no defensive position at this point, and still strikes out way too much and walks way too little. I think this is his make-or-break season.

Green actually reminds me a bit of Cardenas right now.

Only he’s a 1st round pick.

Cardenas was, too, actually, but a lot lower down (#37, one of the comp picks)
Ah, trueness. I still hold out

a touch of hope for Green, based on the possibility that injury and the need for stance-adjustment suppressed his offensive numbers and that he could take to CF enough to become a solid hitter, solid CFer, and above-average speed guy.

But like you, the horrid K/BB numbers alarm me and given that he’s also a guy without a position and without a lot of power…not loving the odds.

Give any promising hitter a chance in our system

and he will go backwards it seems.

Hopefully not but not many of them improve do they?

Michael Choice an exception

And Weeks

If/When he returns to his minor league BB rates, he’s a very good offensive player.

OK Then

Let us hope so

I forgot to include him

He’s more than OK in my book.

"Like you, the horrid K/BB numbers alarm me..."

I’m sorry I alarm you, Nico.

GAAAAAAAAAH!!!!

You did it again.

Mattress
Sigh, great.

Now I have to stand in the tea chest.

agreed

and I think in addition to that we must find his defensive position. I just don’t think that he will hit well enough to stick in the OF and certainly not 1B. I think that we should stick him at 3B and see if he can sink or swim.

Green at 3B seems like a non-starter to me

He struggled with errors and a lack of arm strength at SS, moving him closer to the batter and further from first base seems like it would only exacerbate his problems. By all indications he just doesn’t have the natural tools to succeed at 3B.

So is he a LFer?

I don’t see him making the majors at a “hitter’s” position.

I haven't heard much about how his transition to the outfield is going

But my thinking is that his future hinges on his ability to handle center. I’m very doubtful that he will hit enough to be worth starting as a corner outfielder.

More perspective on Green

Bobby Crosby tore the cover off the ball in Sacramento when he was 23:

.308/.395/.544 with 32 2B, 6 3B, and 22 HRs, in 127 games while playing SS pretty well.

After all that, he was rated as the #24 prospect coming in to the 2004 season, when he won ROY with the A’s.

It’s virtually inconceivable that Green will put up those numbers anywhere this year, much less at AAA, and even if he did he’s already a year older than Crosby was when ChoCoBoCro dominated the PCL.

I’d love to be optimistic about Green, but unless he takes huge steps forward both at the plate and at his new position in CF, this year, I think he’s done as a significant prospect. He has too many weaknesses as a player and he’s not really that young any more.

Stats are

fair to compare but don’t tell the whole story. Obviously he sucks as a SS otherwise we wouldn’t have converted him to OF, but who knows what he will do this year? You can use the stats from other players to justify how good they were in AAA and there ensuing debacle of a career in MLB, but making that assertion backed up with stats only speaks to the ability of Crosby and not Green. Are they similar? Maybe, but we won’t know until he get’s to the majors (if he ever does).
As for Green playing 3rd, the possibility is there, but the fact that he is not there now speaks volumes. I think we all want a stud 3B prospect, but that’s just a pipe dream at the moment!
I hope that Sizemore makes us forget about all this!!!

Agreed.

It’s funny how we want to convert everybody to 3b. When’s Barton moving over there btw?

our next 3B prospect

will be a two headed manbeast named Grant Barton who doesn’t like jumping into swimming pools.

And who has no power, and also no power.
his middle names are

Chris Carter

He's also afraid of the ball
Wait...so if you hit well at AAA, you will become a terrible player?

I kid…Crosby comparisons are always problematic because…well…he should have been very good. He just never learned to control the batter’s box, never altered his stance, and got dominated by big league pitchers.

Right -- like I said, it's just perspective

Part of the reason I mentioned that Crosby was the #24 prospect after that season is that he wasn’t thought of as some kind of sure thing, even with that kind of AAA success under his belt. It’s too late for Green to have that good a season as a 23-year-old, and I think it’s incredibly unlikely that he’ll suddenly hit like that this year, when he’s 24.

To be brutally frank, Green is unlikely to be a good major leaguer. He still might do it, and I’m rooting for him, but worrying about how we’ll fit him and Choice and Cespedes in the OF together is going a little too far.

I'd trade for him.

How about Luke Gregerson?

You guys have any low-level SS prospects?

I’d trade Green for basically anything at this point, but SS/3B would be a good place to acquire.

If we had any SS in our system I wouldn't be looking at Grant Green.

I’d mention James Darnell 3B, but I’ve been trying to trade him to you guys for about a year and a half so I’ll shut up about him.

Unless the Padres have some magical infield dust

trading for Grant Green is not a way to solve your SS problem. He’s not capable of playing SS regularly in the major leagues.

Magical Infield Dust...

…Give Wash a call and try to score some.

At this point

I like this plan for Green more than any other out there. I just don’t see him hitting enough to compete in the OF given that we have Choice and now Cespedes for CF options in addition to the Bostionian.

Converting him to 1B

would bring his value to approximately zero.

Cespedes

photo (4)


that needs to be a poster

that ends up on my wall.

Or a tee shirt.

They need to make this into a Fathead
One Thing:

Nico, do you mean that we should arrive already as contenders – in other words, a team that has been fighting for the playoffs in recent years – or that we should arrive in the new stadium with a fully functional team that is now ready to contend, especially in the right environment?

I mean that ideally, the year you first contend for real

should be your last year in Oakland, so that San Jose awaits the arrival of this winning team. Call the last two years in Oakland “1999” and “2000” and then arrive to San Jose ready for the “2001-2003 seasons”.

Giant's Management

Why do the really care so much about San Jose? Are they afraid of corporate sponsorship going awry?
Are their ego’s that big that they just can’t let it go because they’ve ‘claimed’ and defended that territory like the MS13’s would?
What about the SJ Giants? Do they own them? Are they afraid of their attendance #’s dropping?
Seriously what is it???

The SF Giants bought the SJ Giants two years ago

Most feel it is to bolster their claim to San Jose and their damages claimed if the As move.

SJ Giants hardly even charge admission anymore, they give out tickets all over town. Most of the money seems to come from Turkey Mike’s (the BBQ place behind the 3rd base line).

I think the Giants believe that with a baseball team in SJ with a good park fewer people would come up from the South Bay to see Giants games. They’re probably right, but I don’t think that would cripple the Giants.

They may not sell out every game anymore, but with a park that good they’re still going to pull tons of casual fans and the true Giants fans won’t leave them anyway.

The Giant's financial situation won't change much if the A's move

The reason they are so opposed is that, if the A’s can’t move to San Jose, the team will likely be sold and moved to another location entirely leaving the Giants as the only team in the Bay Area.

For the Giants, the upside of that happening is immense.

This is why I prefer to portray Giants ownership as cartoon supervillians… because the only way this makes any sense is if you realize how diabolical their plan is and how unreasonable it requires them to be.

Ah

I get it now. Thanks.
Yes, that would be ideal in really any situation, but if 2013 is our last year in Oakland, do you honestly think that Beane could put together a winning team this year and during the next offseason? There are (obviously) holes; the only guys you can say are really set (good or not) are Weeks, Suzuki and Cespedes, and perhaps Penny and Sizemore (and a few other guys that I may be missing). What about the rotation? This’ll be a big year for Parker, Milone and Peacock, and as a result a big year for the A’s future.

The last year in Oakland is probably 2015,

with “best case scenario” being 2014 (but that now seems unlikely).

because the world will end in 2016?
Really?

I thought the plans were that we move into the new stadium (if we get one) in 2014. I must have been mistaken…

That ship has apparently sailed, and the 2015 ship likely as well.
Well, you didnt ask me but this is how I see it...

Ideally, we would like to be a post season contender (if not a success) and continue to be contenders as we move to a new stadium. What I see being a little more realistic is more like the Marlins situation: called up some of their best prospects, they succeeded (unpredictable, but I think at least Parker, Peacock, and Choice should), and then just be a couple big name players away from contending, players that we would be able to sign due to the increase in revenue sharing. I think that’s the route we’re heading. We have enough major league talent now and good crop of high potential prospects where at least 2 or 3 should be stars and the rest should be major league average at worst (not including Whatchamacallit) It could be possible, but unfortunately, we have to play the waiting game right now

Hmmm...

…what about starting Jeremy Lin at 3rd? I’m pretty sure he’d bat & field well!

could the Koji trade

be a precursor to shipping Balfour out? Seems like he’s at his peak value, and he’s not signed into the San Jose years. Seems like a good call to see what we could get for him.

if that was the idea, then why not just sign Mike Gonzalez and trade Balfour?

I don’t get it, personally.

I think it's to fill out the bullpen

so that Ross AND Godfrey (assuming a good ST from them) fill the rotation rather than Ross OR Godfrey fill it out, that way leaving parker and peacock in AAA

that makes sense, but based on recent seasons I wouldn't be surprised to see Parker and Peacock in the majors really soon if they perform well
i should have said

leaving parker and peacock to develop in AAA for a month or two (definitely expect to see them up in the bigs by the all star break), jarrod to keep working on his stamina/slider and peacock to work on his changeup

If we could trade Balfour and Taylor

For a high upside 3b with a great glove in A+ ball I’d ship him out right now.

i'd do it for

a signed copy of Krush Groove

Nah, we're just weak in the bullpen.

Not a lot of proven MLBers in the bullpen right now.

Shoo-ins, if healthy

Balfour
FDLS
Fuentes
Devine
-
Not quite good enough to be comfortable with
Blevins
Cook
Norberto
-
Minor Leaguers who could be surprises
Brett Hunter
Blake Treinen

We just don’t have enough in the bullpen right now. Uehara would be a good target. The only guys I could see being traded for him are Taylor, Carter, Allen, Kila, and as far as prospects go the only one I can see the A’s giving up is Krol.

Andrew Carignan could be in that last category as well.
Another minor league possibility is AJ Griffin

Dont know much about him but Jonathan Mayo rated him as our 13th best prospect on MLB.com and said that he pitched at 4 levels last year, ending in AAA, and lead the organization in ERA and doesnt give up many walks (dont know any advanced stats for him). He currently a starter and, according to Mayo, could make the majors soon. Maybe he could fill out the rotation or pitch in the bullpen. He doesnt sound too bad

I think Griffin is gonna be a starter.

Likely with the Rivercats this year. I can’t see the A’s turning him into a reliever yet, he was too good as a starter last year.

if griffin joins the big league camp

and has a good enough showing, he could possibly be a runner for the 5th starter/long relief spot like tyson ross a few years ago

I would be pretty shocked if he was in the running for a big league job this spring

Griffin didn’t really end the year in AAA last season, he had one start there when he was called up from Stockton in an emergency. He actually finished the season with 6 starts in AA and he was pretty mediocre there. I think he needs to show he can make the adjustment from low minors to AA before we start speculating on his major league future.

i was kinda just going hypothetical

but yeah, the chances of him breaking the bigs this year are slim to none

He isn't in big league camp. I think there is zero chance that he is in OAK in April
Alright

I was just throwing a name out there. Didnt know too much about em but Jonathan Mayo made him sound pretty good

Wagner as well

I hope Fuentes is included in any uehara trade

Rangers are just trying to dump salary.

No way they’re interested in Fuentes.

damn.

We’ll pay half?

I don't see Texas being interested in any of those position players
I live here in Texas

Ranger fans act like there the Yankees around here. I guess they don’t remember when they were the doormate of the AL west.

at least travis buck plays for the Astros now ;)
The A's have had good hitters

I think people have nibbled on this point a bit, but some very good hitters have passed through this system: Carlos Gonzalez, Nick Swisher, Andre Ethier, Carlos Pena and Nelson Cruz.

And if you want to stretch it a bit you could include Ryan Ludwick, Marco Scutaro, Jose Guillen and Brett Wallace. Imagine what the 2010 81-81 club could have achieved with some of these guys. Or the 2011 club.

Uehara

From what I’m reading, the trade is primarily a salary dump for Texas, and the A’s will give up one excess outfielder plus either Rosales or Sogard, with the A’s leaning toward trading Rosales. At least that’s what it looks like from seeing several different links.

Who might the outfielder be? Obviously speculation here says Taylor, but it wouldn’t surprise me if it was Green.

Green for Uehara seems downright crazy

Even without the addition of Rosales or the Elf

Green for Uehara?

That’s beyond horrible for the A’s. My God, man. Allen and Sogard for Uehara sounds fair.

yeah, the only reason it makes sense is that if they believe Green is Corey Brown II

And they just want to get some value from him before he completely craters. Given the way the organization has treated him, it lends me to believe that they still believe he can be a productive big leaguer, so trading him while his value is this low is a bad move.

Baltimore’s interest in Uehara is even weirder than the A’s interest in him; but I hope they get uninterested because there is absolutely no point in bidding against other teams for Uehara.

I find it weird that no contender wants to add him to their bullpen. He’s pretty damn good and available for next-to-nothing.

i was thinking

cowgill/taylor and rosales for uehara

Billy <3 Cowgill

I don’t see him giving up Cowgill without letting him play a game in white shoes.

Looking at the Rangers roster

They need a CF more than a corner guy. So maybe Jermaine Mitchell?

That said, I think the A’s would give away Kila or Allen so it could be one of them.

jermaine mitchell

he can’t be traded right now since he had the surgery and will be out for the beginning of the season.

Cespedes and Tejada

Yes.

http://a1.sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-ash4/395607_296607243719938_140359366011394_753799_56779684_n.jpg

again

wow

talk about looking eerily similar

I have been saying

That Cespedes reminds me of Tejada and that just makes it even more so now. It doesn’t make sense now, but I’ve always wanted Tejada back with the A’s. Im sure Cespedes would agree.

Any chance Miggy

Had a hand in having Cespedes go to Oakland? Im sure he might have asked him about it since they are on the same team and he considers Tejada as one of his favorite player

I'd take Miggy over Rosales and Sogard

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