News that the A's have signed Yoenis Cespedes to a 4 year, $36M deal has Oakland fans legitimately excited. It's also another move that smacks of confidence that the team will get the go ahead to build a new stadium soon, though Lew Wolff recently acknowledged that in regards to San Jose, "soon" probably meant for the 2016 season. So how does Cespedes, a 26-year old OFer under contract through 2015, fit in with the hopes of building a new stadium to move into for the 2016 campaign?
My first thought is that the A's see their "window" of contention starting, if all goes according to plan, in 2014.
By 2014, the Rangers could be vulnerable again with Josh Hamilton likely gone, Michael Young's career likely winding down as he turns 38, and Adrian Beltre's contract starting to shift from a good one to a not-so-good one (similar to Torii Hunter's, a calculated 5-year deal that paid off early and then predictably didn't feel so good later).
Meanwhile, if the A's let Jarrod Parker and Brad Peacock get their feet wet in 2012 they, along with Tom Milone, could form a "young veteran" trio in 2014 (ideally behind Brett Anderson), followed by Sonny Gray, a likely 2013 arrival, with plenty still in the pipeline for 2015 and beyond -- specifically A.J. Cole and Raul Alcantara, along with possibly Michel Ynoa. By 2014, Cespedes and Choice could be joining Weeks as an actually formidable offensive trio, something the A's haven't had since the Chavez, Tejada, Giambi years.
But what about the fact that come 2014, the A's won't be moving into their new stadium -- assuming they do move into one -- for another two years? I've never seen the goal as having to be "Start contention the year you move in." Much better to arrive a contender. First of all, attendance patterns are well known: Attendance lags a year behind the success or failure of a team. The A's want to move into a new stadium known as "that winning team that's coming!" and Cespedes gives them a better chance to do it.
Finally, the A's stated goal all along has been to increase payroll, and specifically to keep their good talent, as a by-product of getting a new stadium. If Cespedes is under contract as the A's are moving into a new stadium, and is a big part of their current success, the A's have every chance to keep him beyond 2015 because they'll know their stadium situation, and thus their increased payroll flexibility, long before Cespedes is a free agent.
For the first time in a while, the future is looking bright -- and perhaps it's only a couple years away.
0 recs | 117 comments
Cespedes means fields, yes?
JamesS - February 13, 2012
yes...
or “lawns” if you want to be more precise. “Cesped” is a word used for grass.
kwlarson - February 13, 2012
Grama
OaklandSi - February 13, 2012 via mobile
That is the other...
It just depends on what part of Latin America (or Spain) you are in. I lived in Nicaragua for 2 years and they used both words. I know different parts Mexico or South America they use one or the other.
kwlarson - February 13, 2012
Strawberry cespedes forever?
Nico - February 13, 2012
"Campo" is field
OaklandSi - February 13, 2012 via mobile
Fieldy Fieldaneris?
Nico - February 13, 2012
well, "Campy" was only his nickname in the US
OaklandSi - February 15, 2012
Campos!
iglew - February 14, 2012
I'm nervous
I’m optimistic about the future of the A’s.
PistolPete7556 - February 13, 2012
If it's a true rebuild then...
we should make trades and draft SS and 3B prospects.
DoomandGloom - February 13, 2012
With the A's I'm not sure there's such a thing
As a “true rebuild”
OaklandSi - February 13, 2012 via mobile
So far, it is..
unlike acquiring Holliday, Cespedes didn’t cost us any players, just cash.
sf drift king - February 13, 2012
buying a player w/o trades isn't necessarily part of a rebuld
OaklandSi - February 15, 2012
YORDY!!!!!!
Nico - February 13, 2012
...VDLS...RENATO...MUNOZ!!!
Halloffamer7 - February 13, 2012
I never thought that we should wait until the year before the stadium is finished to start to compete
We should do what the Marlins have done. They brought up Coghlan, Morrison, and Stanton and let them prove what they could do. Then with their success and an already strong foundation of Josh Johnson, Hanley, and a solid enough 2-5 rotation they were able to sign some big name prospects. I think this year might be a little too early to bring up our top pitching prospects but I think next year would be good. This year should be when we figure out what our older prospects (like Carter, Allen, Taylor, Reddick, etc.) can do and then keep those that perform well and demote or get rid of the cancers (<- maybe that’s too harsh). Then in 13’ we build around the proven prospects and the unseen, highly touted ones and start to prove that we can have a winning team given a couple whole filling FAs. But, regardless, I’m excited for this season. Although it’s unlikely, I hope to see breakout seasons from our young talent and hopefully be stronger contenders than anyone would predict
NJA'sFan - February 13, 2012
and everyone seems to leave Ian Krol out of the future rotation picture
he’s been one of our top prospects for awhile and Jonathan Mayo rated him our 10th best prospect on MLB.com. The main thing that’s been holding back his progress has been injuries
NJA'sFan - February 13, 2012
and
douchebaggery
guessatomo - February 13, 2012
this, I never did see him get reinstated from suspension last year
I’m sure it happened just flew under the radar cause he was hurt (I think)
Copenhagen - February 13, 2012
i think for them
“indefinitely” meant til the end of the season, he was there for fall instructs
guessatomo - February 13, 2012
yea, forgot about that
I never found out what he said though. I just knew that he said something he wasnt allowed to say
NJA'sFan - February 13, 2012
it was aimed towards ASU people
he called them f**s i think.
guessatomo - February 13, 2012
I chalk it up to Krol being "young and stupid"...
He’ll get for sure get older and, hopefully, wiser.
the_rozeboom - February 14, 2012
The part that bothered me most about the Krol incident
is not that he said something stupid. It’s that after he said the stupid thing, he never made the obligatory semi-scripted apology that always follows after that sort of thing. I know those apologies aren’t always sincere, and that’s fine, but they do show that the guy understands his role in the business and will show the proper respect in public regardless of what he really thinks. When he doesn’t do that, it tells me he doesn’t get it.
iglew - February 14, 2012
Ohhhhh... I didn't know that part of it.
Then maybe he really is stupid. And not just young…
the_rozeboom - February 14, 2012
plus
he had gotten suspended from playing in his senior year of high school, kid just isn’t bright
guessatomo - February 14, 2012
I agree, but I'm not sure there's room for our "sink or swim" guys in 2012.
That’s all the more reason NOT to mess around with Manny Ramirez. Our margin for error is so thin, that we can’t afford to be short-sighted and allow even one guy like Carter, Allen or Taylor to become Nelson Cruz, Carlos Pena or, hell, even Jack Cust elsewhere.
RyanFromBonas - February 13, 2012
Marlins have actually been competing more often than not
when they would dismantle their teams they usually got really good prospects in return.
OaklandSi - February 15, 2012
Basically, we have like 20 guys, of which hopefully 10 or more will pan out to be quality MLB players.
by 2014-15 or so. By that time we prove how awesome we are even with a dump for a stadium, then move to SJ, sign missing pieces to get to 80 mill payroll, then ??, and then PROFIT!
true torture - February 13, 2012
I wish I believed in the stadium
But not with the comments this weekend. I just don’t.
Also, the Mariners started spring training early because they start the season early in Japan against Oakland. But Oakland didn’t do the same. Any reason to think this is for any purpose other than to save money?
4-6-3 - February 13, 2012
Spring training is too long already.
Although, having the A’s go to Japan really screwed up my spring training travel options.
And if the A’s weren’t going to move, why would Beane sign through 2019? I’ve never held one job that long!
WhizDad - February 13, 2012
BB may sign through 2019 or whatever year, but...
he and Lew have a well publicised agreement that BB can leave at any time, so I think it is just another showcase for MLB’s benefit on how much the A’s are committed.
robertmelvin - February 13, 2012
maybe they asked and the players were like meh
pretty sure most sports athletes think their training camps are too long.
buddahead9 - February 13, 2012
I don't believe in any new stadium until construction begins
I do, however, believe in doing what is possible to build a good farm system and put a competitive and entertaining team on the MLB field.
OaklandSi - February 15, 2012
I didn't realize he was hitting all those HR in less than 90 games each year.
this is the best signing for the A’s offense since Frank Thomas the first time.
elBONESAW - February 13, 2012
Wow really?
Where did you read this? I thought it was odd that 33HR was the record for the league.
Pop N' Locktapus - February 13, 2012
I just assumed the ballparks were really, really big.
Nico - February 13, 2012
Blerns!
Pop N' Locktapus - February 13, 2012
Add a one and 2 zeros in front of that and you got yourself a deal
OkayJay81 - February 13, 2012
He did it in 354 at bats
Fangraphs has his Cuban stats
wcmori - February 14, 2012
I know the Cuban league is like the minor leagues but
to hit 33 hrs in 90 games is still a really impressive thing. Im not sure if anyone is really sure how those numbers will translate. Can’t wait to see him in an A’s uniform. Its really going to be exciting watching Weeks and Cespedes. I’m still hoping Carter and Allen get a chance to full fill their potential (I don’t want to see a Nelson Cruz situation) but everything is pointing to the fact that they aren’t going to get it. Allen probably has his future in his hands if he outperforms Barton, but I don’t see Carter DH with Smith/Gomes without a position.
JJ209 - February 13, 2012
Really small ballparks
there were like 10 guys who hit 28+ last year. It was a record but nothing earth shattering.
Rio - February 14, 2012
this
bbower - February 14, 2012
more impressive was his performance in the WBC of 2006 and 2009
where the ballparks were bigger and the pitching was better
OaklandSi - February 15, 2012
If things break right, 2013 is the contention year
Reddick should break through in 2012; Cespedes in 2013; Choice starts 2013 as the third outfielder and maybe is headed for a good rookie season. Weeks is in his third year. Hopefully one of the crowd makes it at 1B and/or DH or Smith proves himself in 2012.
On the pitching front, Anderson and Braden are back full-strength; Milone has a full year under his belt; Parker makes the transition to MLB front-line starter
-keep in mind that the transition for pitchers is usually one or two years, so it’s very possible that Parker and Anderson will head a very fine rotation.But things have to break right: Cespedes must be for real; Reddick needs to break through; Choice continues his torrid pace through the system; there are no injuries to these players.
Could happen.
richwol1 - February 13, 2012
If things break right, this is the year I get with Adrianna Lima!
elBONESAW - February 14, 2012
you can have her
Copenhagen - February 14, 2012
Wow. I had no idea who she is until now, but wow. Wow.
Who else are you ready to give away?
paris7 - February 14, 2012
Many I'm fickle
Copenhagen - February 15, 2012
The big question mark with the A's, as usual is....
“there are no injuries to these players.
Could happen.”
robertmelvin - February 13, 2012
not just injuries, minor injuries are meh
more like “no SIGNIFICANT injuries a la anderson and braden this year”
guessatomo - February 13, 2012
Don't forget Green, too
So we should have an outfield of Michael Choice, Grant Green, and Yoenis Cepedes in 2013-2014.
We might actually have, like, a middle of the order for the first time in a while.
LunaCI - February 13, 2012
I'm not sure Green projects to be any better than Reddick
But there are a lot more options for the outfield going forward than there were 3 months ago.
OkayJay81 - February 13, 2012
I really hope Grant Green bounces back
this year and puts up a nice line
305/360/490 with 15 HRs and sub 100 K’s would make me very happy
Pop N' Locktapus - February 13, 2012
The A's redid his batting stance completely for the AFL
And he raked. Hit like, 5 bombs in 22 games when he had hit 9 in 133 the whole year.
His pop is back, and could be better than before. Look what a batting stance change did for Jose Bautista XD
LunaCI - February 13, 2012
I hope that's true
It’s also worth noting that Green had a nagging wrist injury for the first half of the season in 2011 which he felt sapped some of his power. Not sure how much of his power output during a short time in the AFL is attributable to a new stance versus a better hitting environment or better health. Either way I would love to see him show significantly more pop this season.
OkayJay81 - February 13, 2012
Well, actually, Bautista's newfound success is credited to his new approach:
Swing hard at fastballs in the zone and adapt to the breaking ball
NJA'sFan - February 13, 2012
and steal signs
BWH - February 14, 2012
AFL is a hitter's paradise
The main issue with Green is his terrible K/BB ratios. There’s no way on earth that a guy who goes 117/38 as a 22-year-old in A+ and 119/39 in AA as a 23-year-old is capable of hitting major-league pitching.
Scouts keep talking about how his swing looks and how he has power to all fields, but the vast majority of guys he’s been facing will never even get close to the big leagues and they’ve been making flail like Bobby Crosby. He needs to cut down on his Ks and increase his BBs significantly this season or I think he’s pretty much done as a real prospect.
Nick - February 14, 2012
didn't we hear that Green had back issues during the season?
this would definitely hurt your swing speed
echerrst - February 14, 2012
Question?
If this guy is all that, why is he just signing a deal at the age of 26 and not sooner?
sf drift king - February 13, 2012
Defecting from your country and leaving everything and everyone you know behind is probably a tough decision
Hard to judge the reasons why someone would choose to make that decision at the time they did.
OkayJay81 - February 13, 2012
$$$ and new challenges
Aroldis Chapman once remarked, when the offers of $13-16 million seemed low to him – “If I’d known they’d be offering that low I would have stayed in Cuba.”
In his promo video Céspedes said that he was looking for new challenges.
I wouldn’t classify either as political refugees.
OaklandSi - February 15, 2012
because in cuba
you dont make decisions, the decisions are made for you
Wreckonized - February 14, 2012
keep in mind that because of the US embargo a player can't just sign
unlike China – also a dictatorship – where Yao Ming did sign to play in the US but could travel back and forth.
OaklandSi - February 15, 2012
as others have noted...he only left Cuba at 26...unlike Dominican prospects he didn't have the freedom to sign earlier.
Billy Frijoles - February 14, 2012
Call me a pessimist...
…but I’m not all that thrilled by Beane signing Cesp. Beane has done some good things, but is highly overrated due to having all of those good pitchers like Hudson, Mulder, etc. Me? I remember when they signed people like van Poppel, Andujar & that Cuban pitcher that never panned out before. Cesp is no sure thing & he isn’t exactly lighting up winter ball even though it is early. Me? I want the scouts that signed people like Tejada, McGuire, Canseco, Hudson, Mulder & Chavez. Seems that our scouts keep picking losers which is why we have one of the worst farm systems around. Also, there is no way we are gonna compete w/o Gio, Cahill & Bailey. Colon will just get injured or something. So, what do we have? Braden & Anderson & nothing. At least one, if not both, of the 2 will be injured early & out for the year. At best Cesp will hit around 240-50 & hit about 10-12 dingers. Just remember how batting averaged go down when people sign w/ the A’s. So, I ain’t no fan of what Billy is doing this off season at all. Prospects are just that-prospects & no sure bet! Nuff said!
Bulgaricus - February 14, 2012
I don't want to reply to all this
But I will say that you have a ridiculous amount of speculation in your post. Secondly, no where did anyone say that we would be competitive this year.
Pop N' Locktapus - February 14, 2012
Well if we brought in Tejadas and McGwires* and Cansecos their batting averages would just go down too according to you.
I know you have every right to be pessimistic, but this could be a great signing.
true torture - February 14, 2012
downranked into oblivion
cuppingmaster - February 14, 2012
McGwire
Nick - February 14, 2012
well aren't you a negative nellie
my_cat_max - February 14, 2012
Joaquin Andujar?!
He was a proven, veteran 20-game winner coming off a world championship with a li’l bit of injury history when he got here. WTH does that have to do with Big Yo?
BigJ7489 - February 14, 2012
Maybe Bulgaricus was a big Tim Conroy fan
Nick - February 14, 2012
How dare you, sir.
Say what you will about the A’s moves, but I’ll be damned if I’ll let you forget the name of ARIEL PRIETO!!!
Dr. Handsome, D.D.S. - February 14, 2012
Can anyone tell me what they feel the level of the Cuban professional league is?
As of now I’ve seen it compared to High-A ball here
And AA-ball here
And AAA-ball here as well as when I listened to Orestes Destrade give an interview to day on 95.7
Dunno what to think.
Pop N' Locktapus - February 14, 2012
Good question
Im wondering the same thing. cuban league might be hard to judge based on the limited video thats out there.
JJ209 - February 14, 2012 via Android app
Nippon Pro League is overrated, AAAA equivalent?
If so, Darvish is gonna have like a 2.20 ERA and be a top 5 pitcher easily… I’d say NPL is AA or AAA based on how few NPL players become successful here. The talent is probably top heavy there.
Anyway, off topic, but I’m interested to know about Cuban Leagues as well. They are probably no better than NPL I would think.
A .270 avg and 20 HRs with some speed would be amazing.
true torture - February 14, 2012
With plus OF range and a plus arm?
Yes please.
Pop N' Locktapus - February 14, 2012
Mark Kurlansky
Mark Kurlansky wrote a book about the Dominican League, but when I interviewed him he talked about Cuba and the players there. He said that after watching a number of games, he’s convinced that maybe a hundred could play in the big leagues (which I think he said was about a third of the talent).
richwol1 - February 14, 2012
Maybe...
…but just wait until the season is over & you will see. The A’s simply can’t make it through a season w/ out half of the team ending up in the ER!
Bulgaricus - February 14, 2012
Another thing to think about
Is who won’t be here for that peak window that has some value. The first person that comes to mind is Grant Balfour. As good as he has beenm his contract will be up before our supposed golden years and I doubt we would resign him. I’d look to trade him now and right the wrong of not trading Wuertz a while back when he was in god mode and everyone wanted him.
sourstuff - February 14, 2012
I tend to think Balfour is a perfect complementary piece to go in a package that deals away some OF surplus
And nets either some low-level gambles in high-upside prospects, or maybe another starter. Lannan perhaps?
cuppingmaster - February 14, 2012
agreed
sourstuff - February 14, 2012
is this guy really 26 years old?
does it matter?
is he going to be the real deal?
HUNGRY HUNTER - February 14, 2012
Yes
No it does not matter, you are getting some of his prime years regardless.
I think he is at the very worst your getting an above average CF who hits for power. That is hard to find.
ogallalabob - February 14, 2012
remember before the season Slusser reported that if the team thought it was moving it would do a complete rebuild
and if it thought it wasn’t it would raise payroll?
So they’re doing both?
DDroney - February 14, 2012
*before the off-season moves, that is
DDroney - February 14, 2012
Looks to me more of a rebuild
with keeping in mind that the new CBA pressures teams to spend the profit sharing on the major league and not the minor league. So I think the A’s are targeting 2013-2014 to be competitive. It’s not like they broke the bank on anyone.
ogallalabob - February 14, 2012
Another way to look at the signing
To me its like the A’s signing the first pick in the draft. If he was out in the draft he had #1 pick written all over him. Its a gamble but like the Sheets gamble you either win or lose. The money is back ended in the deal so you must understand that is in case a trade is down the road.
Arcman - February 14, 2012
I've got no complaints
Beane is rebuilding, and at the same time, is going to put an interesting team on the field in 2012. Not a contender, but a team that will be fun to watch develop.
I really do not get the Manny thing, however. Put Smith/Gomes at a DH platoon and you’re set.
If they’re going to use any of the surplus to make another move, how about a solid IF backup? I hate the thought of Rosales as the guy on the bench. Ideally, you’d get a guy who could put in significant innings at 3b if Sizemore takes a step backward.
boilerdan - February 14, 2012
I think Manny thing is about:
Getting a cheap vetern with a big name who really might pay for himself through ticket sales.
ogallalabob - February 14, 2012
I see that
but I weigh it against clubhouse issues, likely production from a DH platoon, etc. Still don’t like.
boilerdan - February 14, 2012
Manny is reviled more than just about any player in the game...
I don’t think anyone is buying a ticket to see him.
AsFan72 - February 14, 2012
he is polarizing enough and has the personality to still be fascinating...
Love him or hate him he would boost TV ratings and attendance, even just as a curiosity.
Billy Frijoles - February 14, 2012
And he's a damn good hitter.
the_rozeboom - February 14, 2012
Is there an evidence that an individual player has ever driven either of those things?
I’ve only ever researched Bonds and his arrival (and departure) in San Francisco showed virtually no impact on attendance there.
AsFan72 - February 16, 2012
I don't understand the suck until the new stadium is built mindset at all
They’re making all the right moves this offseason, positioning themselves for short term flexibility, so that they can jump at opportunity if it arises, and restocking talent for the long term. The Cespedes signing only further strengthens this argument.
If there does end up being a second wild card, it is well within the realm of possibility that this team gets lucky with a few of the young players and contends for it in 2012. Not likely, but possible. Depending on how things break, this could also be a very competitive team in 2013 and 2014.
I want to see this team win some games now, and it looks like that’s exactly what’s going to happen. 2012 isn’t going to be a bad year at all.
laserbeams - February 14, 2012
You could also see it as the same MO as the last two or three years
Trade or buy a couple of average players with red flags that make them available for us. Trade the top starters for slightly younger versions of them so you could rush them to the big league like they did with Cahill/Andersonand.
Rio - February 14, 2012
The difference with this year is that we got a ton of prospects along the way
I’m really impressed with what we’ve done. I don’t see any way other than injuries that we’ll win fewer games than we did last year. And we have a ton of prospects to show for it. Billy Beane may not be a genius, but if we are even in contention for the 5th playoff spot (if it exists) while getting better for the future and saving money, what’s not to be impressed with?
A'sFanDFW - February 14, 2012
Here's to the A's
being baseball’s version of the 49ers this year. The team no one thought would contend, but shows up well coached, plays top line defense (and pitching), and gets just enough offense to win some games.
SoCal As Fan - February 14, 2012
There is at least one team like this every year
why not us?
hope springs eternal
sactownbull - February 14, 2012
Let's hope Cespedes isn't Alex Smith
cuppingmaster - February 14, 2012
and get's us to the final four?
elBONESAW - February 14, 2012
As long as we get a bowl invitation, I'll be happy.
paris7 - February 14, 2012
Pssh, it's nothing unless we go to the curling world championship
cuppingmaster - February 15, 2012
Sounds good. Too bad Coco cut off his fro; I think he had a projected .330 fCurl+!
fCurl+ is the weather adjusted curl according to fangraphs.
paris7 - February 15, 2012
Who knew he was a Christopher Cross fan?
http://youtu.be/ej4AP-veuF8
sactownbull - February 14, 2012
Yeah, well call me negative...
…but check out Ken Rosenthal’s article on the Cesp. deal. Nothing says he’ll work out & 36 million is a lot of change for a broke team like the A’s. Also, as Rosenthal says, remember the MIchael Ynoa deal?
Bulgaricus - February 15, 2012
36M isnt...
when you consider that, at the time (and still possibly now), we had yet to satisfy the new CBA agreement where we have to spend a certain amount of money during the offseason (isnt it like 40M or something like that?). If we had already satisfied that agreement then, yea, it’d be a problem. But I’m pretty sure that deal put us over the hump
NJA'sFan - February 15, 2012
isnt that bad*
NJA'sFan - February 15, 2012
Ynoa was 10% of the Cespy deal
AND he’s still got a chance… too early to call it a failure.
echerrst - February 15, 2012
We haven't heard much about Ynoa in the past year
I’m curious where he’s thought to be at this point. He’s still awfully young, and if the TJS recovery is a good one he still has a chance to have a great career — or to be a complete bust.
Nico - February 15, 2012
The A's may be called many things, but "broke" isn't one of them
OaklandSi - February 15, 2012
Love the analysis in this post
great discussion, too.
stranahanahan - February 18, 2012
Gracias!
Nico - February 18, 2012
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