Athletics Nation

Fixed.

Maybe instead of coming up with RHP comps, I’ll leave the ones I have and let the community offer their best comps among RHPs.

BTW, I wouldn’t say Sutcliffe just because Sutcliffe had impeccable control. Cole seems like more of an “electric stuff” guy with average control.

Wait a minute

When you said “I’ll fix that” I assumed you meant that you would contact Beane and tell him to have Cole start throwing lefthanded.

As to Sutcliffe’s control, I just looked at his stats and it took him a long time to get to that point. Take a look at his numbers in the minors and the majors — his BB/K really sucked for a long time.

Nick - January 24, 2012 reply

Then he got good control but his broadcasting sucked.

He seriously puts me to sleep.

"It's not that busy, man...."

(Hiccup!)

mrod - January 24, 2012 reply

Good call, BTW, on Sutcliffe's control

Not sure why I thought Sutcliffe had better control than he did, but it was really pretty middling. Assuming he is a good comp for Cole, I fully expect Cole to go 16-1 for someone else down the stretch.

That was crazy... the 16-1 for the Cubs, that is.

the_rozeboom - January 24, 2012 reply

So if the inverted W is bad for a pitcher...

what do we make of the inverted frontslash?

OkayJay81 - January 25, 2012 reply

Good stuff

A great look at the A’s prospects.

Flamethrower - January 24, 2012 reply

Thanks!

Of course I’m doing it solely on scouting reports and stats, so I could be way off. For example, had I seen AJ Cole pitch, I might well have noticed that he prefers to release the ball out of his right hand.

It might be a good idea

to also post two or three 12 year old little leaguers’ names beneath each the prospects, regarding who our guys could potentially be traded for in 2018. It’s always good to look ahead.

Dan Bowen - January 24, 2012 reply

a nice reminder (not that I needed any)

of why I wasn’t particularly impressed for the most part with the returns on this offseason’s trades.

I don't know. Just two "90%ers" makes it a pretty good haul.

Latos and Goldschmidt? Price and Napoli? One can hope…dream…

even one of those actual player would make my day

sadly, I’m not one for “ceilings and floors”…but that’s just me…

That's why you get wet a lot.

oh, but I have umbrellas and waterproof gear!

I just edited the AJ Cole section to give RHP comps

Just seems to make sense to try to do that.

rec'd!

Go A’s and pray these prospects develop into their 90th percentile…

MMunoz33 - January 24, 2012 reply

Kind of OT from the OP...

…but the way you phrase this makes me think of my least favorite phrase common here on AN… “upside”.

Essentially, “upside” means “I hope and pray he works out better than he realistically should… because we ain’t got shit behind him.”

UncleLeo - January 24, 2012 reply

good point

OnlybuyBeaneJerseys - January 24, 2012 reply

I know "Comps"

Are lazy and dangerous, but they are so much fun! Deaming of a 2015 all A’s allstar team.

Comps are ok for body types.

Useless otherwise.

Glomar - January 24, 2012 reply

And Peacock's comp is apparently: N/A

So, you’re projecting total bust? I kid, I kid. But yeah, looks like you missed one. Fun read. Thank you for acknowledging that there are most likely comps and ceiling comps. I especially enjoyed the 10th percentile guys.

Good ole Eric Milton. Solid workhouse but the guy just could not keep the ball in the park. He’s #5 all time among pitchers with 1000+ innings pitched for HR/9 (career of 1.52 HR/9).

Fun fact: While a minor leaguer in the Yankee’s system, Eric Milton got a tattoo of the New York Yankees logo on his pitching shoulder. He never got into a game with the Yankees, after being traded with three other players (including Cristian Guzman) to the Minnesota Twins for Chuck Knoblauch.

Ciderbeck - January 24, 2012 reply

Well crap, I did miss Peacock!

Hmm…How about…

With a 94MPH fastball, good curve and changeup, and still refining his secondary pitches, Peacock projects as a #3 starting pitcher.

50th percentile: Freddy Garcia
90th percentile: Adam Wainwright
10th percentile: Tommy Hunter

I’ll add that to the OP.

Hey, changing the subject...

Any word on who Gomes is going to replace on the roster?

richwol1 - January 24, 2012 reply

Looks like no word yet.

I hope its Kila.

Rio - January 24, 2012 reply

Wow

I did not realize Brad Fullmer had 32 homers in 2000, to go along with a .898 OPS. I guess that’s when everyone was raking, but still. Crazytown.

Leap Year - January 24, 2012 reply

Would they be that stupid?

I’d give up a pretty good haul to get Castellanos. I would have done Bailey and Sweeney for Castellanos before doing that trade we did with Boston.

Castellanos isn't THAT great

His 2011 was very BABIP fueled, and he had a 23% K rate and an 8% BB rate. He’s worth less than Bailey, but probably a little more than FDLS.

BWH - January 25, 2012 reply

I didn't realize he had a high BABIP

He has great numbers for his age (19 in A ball) and his glove should be decent enough considering he played SS in high school. He’s huge and should have both power and average. (but maybe not the average since you said he had a high BABIP)

I still like him and think he’s worth more than FDLS.

I kind of wish Fielder was signed before we traded Cahill.

Billy Frijoles - January 25, 2012 reply

I'd rather have Parker than Turner and Castellanos.

I think Parker is gonna be amazing.

BWH - January 25, 2012 reply

Using the 10th percentile...

Since I have a big mediation brief due I thought I would look up the WAR totals for the comps. Using the players Nico listed as comps for the 10th percentile, and Dreifort & Powell for comps for Peacock and Cook, those players produced a total WAR of 77.5. Even if the players the A’s received only reach the 10th percentile the trades would be a tremendous success.

what kind of law do you practice?

Billy Frijoles - January 24, 2012 reply

I have a small private practice.

65% is Civil litigation/35% Criminal Defense.

nice. good luck w/the mediation, just had one yesterday that went pretty well.

I do entertainment law (mostly transactional, some litigation).

Billy Frijoles - January 24, 2012 reply

Thanks

I just finished. I think it will go well. Sounds like you are much further along than I am. I still am in the eat what you kill mode. I look forward to the day when I can say I practice “entertainment law” or whichever area of law I specialize in.

Thanks for looking it up

My gut told me that this post was crazy-optimistic. Which can be fun. But it’s still crazy.

laserbeams - January 24, 2012 reply

I actually don't think it's crazy-optimistic

I just think some folks are misunderstanding the ratings. Again, it’s IF they make it to the big leagues and are healthy.

So it’s not the “10th percentile overall” or “50th percentile overall” — it’s the “10th percentile amongst players who DID stay healthy and DID have a big league career” and the “50th percentile amongst players who DID stay healthy and DID have a big league career” and so on. Totally different bell curve from one that includes all the injured busts and all the healthy busts.

I love crazy-optimistic

Screw the 10th percentile, I’m holding out for the 99th percentile! I’m looking forward to Parker becoming Hudson like, and Milone becoming the left handed Maddux.

Hey, I'm just hoping AJ Cole becomes a right-handed AJ Cole.

write_said_fred - January 24, 2012 reply

With our medical staff

it’s a distinct possibility!

Kallus - January 25, 2012 reply

bust is all relative

Maybe I misread, but I think Alcantara, Head, Cole, and Norris are far enough away from the bigs that the 50% comp and 10% comp should be much worse players. Honestly, I think Miles Head has less than a 10% chance of making the bigs, even less so having an impact, in which case Chris Carter is more of a 90% comparison.

I agree...

Like Hang Man’s comment above, these 10th percentile players are all solid regular MLBers. 10th percentile should be a AAA flame out or worse on a 19/20 year old with < 2 seasons of pro ball.

I also think that Tommy Hanson is an amazing 50th percentile. IMO Tommy Hanson and Chris Carpenter shouldn’t be all to far apart.

echerrst - January 24, 2012 reply

Point being that IF Cole makes it to the big leagues, and IF he stays healthy,

“Hanson” is probably about where he’s headed.

Wha????

How can you say that??? It’s utter speculation and fully unfounded at that. Hanson is a VERY good major league pitcher. What, other than pure speculation, leads you to believe a guy who hasn’t pitched above A ball is going to resemble Hanson should he make it to the bigs and remain healthy? You’re projecting the statistical success he’s had at the lowest levels of minor league ball across the board all the way into the major leagues and simply doesn’t work that way. At least rarely. Hanson would make a LOT more sense as your “90%” comp, and even then there’s little foundation for such a comparison.

You're factually right on about everything, comps are by definition speculation

In addition, these were based on the assumption that all these players will go on to have productive major league careers, which basically means assuming they will turn out better than 95% of minor leaguers. So assuming that they hit this upper echelon of multi-year major league careers, this is what their career might look like.

IT IS INCREDIBLY SPECULATIVE.

But that’s kind of the point of the post, speculating on what these players could be like if they make MLB. I think it’s more about the prism that you look at this in.

And yes some of these comps might be stupid…I would invite you say, what is your 10% comp for Cole? (obviously with the caveat that it is simply speculation based on scouting reports).

Billy Frijoles - January 25, 2012 reply

Exactly right, BF

And since the OP asked for “your better suggested comps,” it seems like quite a cop-out to take a post designed to be speculative and “the range of the right side of the bell curve,” and say “this is speculative!!! it ignores the left side of the bell curve!!!!” without even offering “better ideas”.

It should be "overly optimistic"

because it assumes they make it, and that they stay healthy, neither of which is certain — especially for players currently in A-ball.

Neither of which is likely

let alone certain. See: percentages of successful A ball pitchers that make it to the big leagues and succeed even when healthy. Likely under 5%

No this is actually accurate

Because of the IF! Since they are fair away, the distribution will be wider. Therefore they will have better comps among major leaguers. You’re probably right that head has a 10 percent chance of making it to the pros.

Then if that 10 percent happens. Who will he become. Then Nico presented a curve.

EXACTLY

It’s the “bell curve within the bell curve” zooming out on what is in fact already “the right side of the full bell curve”.

Tyler Bleszinski - January 24, 2012 reply

I'm just going to dream happy thoughts and dream

of each one of the guys reaching their ceiling ;-)

Well crap I forgot Peacock. Cole is actually a RHP.

Can you explain your methodology?

This is entirely disinformative. I learned nothing about the actual players.

You arbitrarily assigned a bell curve to comps. COMPS. Something that is entirely subjective and based on people’s observations. I always assumed bell curve were based on actual data.

If you cant get the simple stuff right, why would I believe the rest of the information has any merit?

BTW if you aren’t a fan of ceilings or floors, then don’t do the whole bell curve exercise. Because essentially you are assigned floors and ceilings.

Glomar - January 24, 2012 reply

He has to write something...

What very few people here are admitting to themselves is that this could well be a very, very bad team. Unless Carter or Allen (assuming he hasn’t been dumped after the Gomes signing) suddenly learns to hit major league pitching, there’s nobody who has the potential to hit 25 homers on the club, let alone 30 or 40. At this point, Reddick and Weeks are the only ones likely to come close to hitting .300, unless Cowgill pulls a shocker or Pennington has a BABIP over .400. Your starting rotation consists of Brandon McCarthy, Bartolo Colon and a bunch of unknowns at the start of the season - and then who knows when/if Braden and/or Anderson will be back in form when they arrive.

So what’s Nico going to write about? How this team has a lower ceiling than that office in “Being John Malkovich”?

richwol1 - January 24, 2012 reply

To be honest, I didn't "have to write something"

I actually thought this was an interesting exercise, and a fun one for others to kick around comps they could come up with, maybe better or just different.

I think it was a good post

Takes a different picture on these prospects. Whereever the flaws may be, it was not meant to be scientific or perfect measurement of the possible outcomes. Just a couple of players that have some kind of similarity in the scouting reports and comparable stats with our prospects, and on which different ways they could end a major league player.

Personally it says more to me than the scouting report of a guy like alcantarra with one good pitch that says he has the ceiling of a #1 or #2. Shows me that the higher possibility for him to see the majors is as a reliever.

Rio - January 25, 2012 reply

Precisely. Glad you got it and glad you enjoyed!

re: the floors/ceilings

The floor is generally el busto for all of these people…but instead of writing “bust” for all of them, he did a low/mid/high comparison. I don’t think 10% is accurate, but I guess the comps are, if this player goes on to have a productive major league career, it will probably look like one of these players.

Of course the true floor is flame out in the minors/never have a productive MLB career. Or crippling injury. Or something like that.

I do think the posters who said that the “lows” were still too high might have a good point. If they become productive MLBers and hit the “low” on this chart, that would still be not bad.

In other words, the problem may be one of definition, not one of the comps themselves.

Billy Frijoles - January 24, 2012 reply

Right. I tried to be clear, and think I was,

that these are the 10/50/90 comp guesses for IF they make it to the big leagues and have a big league career (which also requires them not to be totally derailed by injury).

The point Glomar was making, however

is that your 10% is essentially a floor and your 90% a ceiling because these comps seem totally arbitrary. I agree with him – what was your methodology here? These comps seem ridiculously optimistic – on what information are you basing your opinion that Cole’s 90% optimal production could be anything near what Chris Carpenter has done? How could you say that when few if any could have predicted Chris Carpenter himself could have accomplished what he’s done? Even your 10% comps include players that have had productive major league stints. Eric Milton for Coles 10% comp??!?! Are you kidding me? The guy threw a no hitter and had a 9 year major league career with multiple 3+ WAR seasons as a SP. I that’s Cole, a guy who hasn’t seen significant time above high A ball’s 10% likely comp, then that is an UNBELIEVABLE trade becuase Gio Gonzalez could just as easily turn into a rich man’s Eric Milton – not to mention, that would make his 90% comp more along the lines of Roger Clemens! Your unbridled opptimism aside, these projections seem wholly unfounded. Perhaps the Norris/Napoli comp would resonate more had we not read that same comparison from various well publicized analysts.

The methodology is really, really simple: There is none.

It is completely and utterly out of my head.

What you seem to be overlooking, no matter how many times I explain it, is that Cole is perfectly likely never to pitch in the big leagues. Or to get injured. Or both. And all of that is not part of this “bell curve”. This “bell curve” begins with “healthy and has a big league career,” meaning it essentially crosses out the left most x% (25%? 30%?) of prospects who never get that far. These are the suggested likely highs and lows if they get past the significant hurdles of health and “have a big league career at all”. All of which is pretty clearly explained in the post.

Eric Milton, incidentally, had a career ERA of 4.99.

No - I understand your premise

But even assuming, as you are, that these guys are healthy and in the bigs, what makes you project a guy like Cole’s median comp to be Hanson? I admire the optimism, really, but it just seems unrealistic. It’s like saying A J Griffin’s likely comp is Ervin Santana – its arbitrary and an excercise in futility. But if that’s the sort of excercise that gets your heart pumping, then, more power to you!

Eric Milton's career ERA, btw

has no baring on my argument that he was a successful major league pitcher that had a number of productive seasons and even threw a no hitter (only the 5th in Twins history) and if that’s Cole’s low end comp, we scored big time in that trade.

Right. The chance that we didn't score

is the significant chance that Cole never becomes a healthy big league pitcher at all. That’s a very strong possibility — and is not part of this particular “bell curve”.

Are you available for parties?

No offense intended

But if there was zero methodology applied to this analysis, as you indicated above, what really makes this piece worthy of a front page post? It seems more like a fun game of dreamy non-substantive projecting – which I suppose has a place, but isn’t that sort of thing usually relegated to fanposts?

First off, "scouting reports and minor league performance so far."

Unless there’s some high tech definition of the word “methodology,” that’s not “zero methodology.”

Second, being someone who only reads blogs that use methodology on their front page posts, you must not read many front page posts here. No offense intended.

sleepingcobra - January 25, 2012 reply

No offense taken.

It’s not a “high tech” definition, just a simple definition, period. I ask how “scouting reports and minor league performance so far” translates into Cole likely becoming a Tommy Hanson-esque pitcher were he to make it to the majors and remain healthy? If your pulling that out of thin air or your “head” which is what Nico claims, then it is, by simple definition, not methodical. It would be like me saying “my three year old daughter just started cello lessons and has faired very well with the Suzuki method thus far. If she were to become a concert cellist, there is a 50% chance she will be as good as Yo-Yo Ma, but if she reaches her 90% potential, she will be as good as Jaqueline du Pre.” It’s a fanciful dream at this point, nothing more. And no, I don’t read many front page articles here; perhaps that is the reason, though it was nothing I was conscious of.

oakballnack - January 25, 2012 reply

Comps are specifically that (they have little methodology)

Comps are looked down upon by professional scouts, statisticians and pretty much any baseball geek. They are lazy and since human beings are not clones they give a false sense of reality.

But they are really fun because they can provide a visional clue to a not well known prospect.

IMO this is perfect front page because it’s more for everyone. The baseball geek in me agrees with you, but the game watching, simple mind, child in me loves them.

Good Read Nico

I read somewhere that A..J. Cole was compared to Jared Weaver can’t find the link but I’ll keep looking.

Halloffamer7 - January 25, 2012 reply

Me likey!

mrod - January 25, 2012 reply

Josh Reddick comp.

I’m interested in how you came up with the David Dejesus comp for Josh Reddick. I’m not a Josh Reddick apologist by any means, but it would seem that the two have different approaches. Reddick has more power than Dejesus, while Dejesus has a much better eye. I don’t see Dejesus as a ceiling (I assume that’s what 90% means) for Reddick.

asyouwish33 - January 25, 2012 reply

Looking at it again, I would also say

that Cabrera and Dejesus should switch, even though I don’t think either really fits Reddick’s mold except maybe on defense.

asyouwish33 - January 25, 2012 reply

I started with looking for OFers

who were “very good RFers who could play CF…” in that “tweener” way, and then looked for the offensive quality of doing many things well but nothing at a really high level. DDJ has ok power, good on-base skills, pretty good speed, yet doesn’t truly excel in any of those departments: “Good at many things, great at none”. So that’s kind of where I found DDJ as a comp, but there’s probably a better one — any ideas?

David Murphy?

Billy Frijoles - January 25, 2012 reply

That's a very good one!

Sold.