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Defense Independent Perfect Games

Brandon McCarthy, the author of Oakland's last defense independent perfect game.

Thearon W. Henderson - Getty Images

Brandon McCarthy, the author of Oakland's last defense independent perfect game.

I love defense-independent pitching staffs. I love them because a poorly positioned outfielder lets a hit drop him and then the pitcher gets blamed. I love them because a third basemen cant react fast enough when playing in on the line and a ball gets by him into left field. I love them because a shortstop and second basemen but defer to the other on a slow roller and someone ends up on first. How much pitchers actually do control is up for debate but many in sabermetrics think that once ball meets bat, unless that ball is hit over the fence, the pitcher is now out of the equation. I like this. It has its flaws, there is a fair debate to be had over whether or not a pitcher induces people to roll over and induce "weak contact" as opposed to screaming line drives, but it is simple and I think a decent measure, if far from perfect, of true pitcher performance. FIP is a common stat that I use on this blog. It is scaled to the ERA scale so that sub-3.00 is very good, sub-4.00 is solid, and so on. It measures three outcomes that it says pitchers are responsible for: 1) Strikeouts, 2) Bases on Balls and 3) Home Runs. Therefore a pitcher who keeps their walks and home runs (the two negative outcomes) to a minimum can have a very tidy and low FIP much like Brandon McCarthy - who with 1.3 BB/9 and just 0.6 HR/9 managed to get an AL-leading 2.86 FIP. But if a pitcher can't control hits and their existence is a mere derivative of luck, a pitcher can be perfect in performing their duties if they do not walk anyone nor surrender a home run. With that in mind, let's take a look back at McCarthy's September 3rd start versus the Seattle Mariners.

Star-divide

In that game, McCarthy went the full nine, striking out ten, walking no one, and allowing no home runs. Defense-independent perfection! However, three Mariners got base hits: Dustin Ackley in the fourth inning, Ichiro Suzuki in the sixth inning, and Josh Bard in the eighth inning. Furthermore in the fifth inning Kyle Seager got on base on Cliff Pennington error. Far from team perfection, the defense let McCarthy down allowing three hits and an error. It is often said when a perfect game occurs it is a team effort and many games have defensive gems that are remembered for salvaging the game, like the leaping catch Dewayne Wise made in saving Mark Buehrle's perfect game. But how often does pitcher perfection happen? I was curious and looked it up. Using this definition of a "defense independent perfect game", a complete nine inning game where a pitcher walks no one and surrenders no home run, here is a list of this more common feat in A's history.

Date Pitcher Opponent
09/03/2011 Brandon McCarthy vs. Seattle
08/28/2010 Dallas Braden at Texas
05/09/2010 Dallas Braden vs. Tampa Bay
09/14/2009 Brett Tomko at Texas
07/08/2008 Justin Duchscherer vs. Seattle
06/02/2007 Joe Blanton vs. Minnesota
08/23/2006 Esteban Loaiza at Toronto
07/14/2005 Rich Harden vs. Texas
06/23/2005 Kirk Saarloos at Seattle
05/31/2005 Dan Haren vs. Tampa Bay
08/17/2004 Tim Hudson at Baltimore
05/21/2004 Mark Mulder vs. Kansas City
04/10/2004 Tim Hudson vs. Seattle
07/04/2003 Mark Mulder vs. Anaheim
04/30/2003 Mark Mulder at Chicago (AL)
09/02/2001 Mark Mulder at Tampa Bay
07/07/2001 Tim Hudson at Arizona
07/06/2001 Mark Mulder at Arizona
06/22/2001 Tim Hudson vs. Texas
09/10/2000 Barry Zito vs. Tampa Bay
09/09/2000 Tim Hudson vs. Tampa Bay
09/05/1998 Kenny Rogers vs. Tampa Bay
08/28/1996 Don Wengert at Baltimore
09/17/1995 Todd Van Poppel vs. Minnesota
06/23/1994 Bobby Witt vs. Kansas City
07/22/1990 Dave Stewart at Minnesota
04/30/1990 Bob Welch at New York
08/11/1989 Mike Moore at California
06/24/1989 Dave Stewart vs. Toronto
06/05/1989 Curt Young vs. Minnesota
06/28/1987 Steve Ontiveros at Cleveland
10/05/1986 Curt Young vs. Kansas City
09/19/1986 Curt Young vs. Cleveland
07/07/1984 Steve McCatty at Milwaukee
09/18/1983 Mike Warren at Kansas City
08/15/1983 Gorman Heimueller vs. California
07/29/1982 Rick Langford vs. Minnesota
09/08/1981 Steve McCatty vs. Texas
05/24/1981 Mike Norris vs. Toronto
05/22/1981 Rick Langford vs. Toronto
04/18/1981 Brian Kingman vs. Seattle
08/10/1980 Rick Langford vs. Seattle
07/18/1980 Mike Norris vs. Cleveland
08/01/1979 Rick Langford vs. Minnesota
07/15/1979 Rick Langford vs. Minnesota
06/03/1978 Matt Keough vs. New York
07/26/1977 Vida Blue vs. California
06/29/1977 Rick Langford vs. Texas
05/11/1977 Doc Medich vs. Boston
09/07/1976 Mike Torrez vs. Chicago
09/01/1976 Vida Blue vs. New York
08/04/1976 Paul Mitchell at Chicago
07/27/1976 Vida Blue vs. Chicago
07/19/1976 Vida Blue at Cleveland
05/28/1976 Stan Bahnsen vs. Chicago
04/23/1976 Vida Blue at Cleveland
09/22/1975 Ken Holtzman vs. Minnesota
08/13/1975 Stan Bahnsen vs. New York
07/27/1975 Stan Bahnsen vs. Chicago
05/16/1975 Vida Blue at New York
04/27/1975 Vida Blue at California
09/09/1974 Catfish Hunter vs. Kansas City
09/05/1974 Catfish Hunter vs. Texas
08/13/1974 Ken Holtzman vs. New York
08/04/1974 Glenn Abbott at Minnesota
07/28/1974 Ken Holtzman vs. Chicago
06/20/1974 Catfish Hunter vs. Kansas City
05/29/1974 Ken Holtzman vs. Detroit
06/09/1973 Ken Holtzman vs. Detroit
05/06/1973 Ken Holtzman at Cleveland
09/27/1972 Catfish Hunter vs. Minnesota
09/03/1972 Catfish Hunter vs. Detroit
07/31/1972 Vida Blue vs. Texas
06/16/1972 Ken Holtzman vs. Cleveland
06/04/1972 Catfish Hunter at Baltimore
05/17/1972 Ken Holtzman at California
05/05/1972 Ken Holtzman vs. New York
04/19/1972 Ken Holtzman vs. Kansas City
08/29/1971 Catfish Hunter vs. Washington
08/24/1971 Vida Blue vs. New York
07/04/1971 Vida Blue at California
05/13/1971 Catfish Hunter at Kansas City
08/01/1970 Chuck Dobson vs. Washington
06/28/1970 Chuck Dobson at Milwaukee
05/28/1970 Chuck Dobson at California
07/11/1969 Lew Krausse vs. California
05/09/1969 Chuck Dobson vs. New York
09/17/1968 Blue Moon Odom at Chicago
08/22/1968 Catfish Hunter vs. California
07/24/1968(#2) Blue Moon Odom at Chicago
07/24/1968(#1) Jim Nash at Chicago
06/22/1968 Lew Krausse vs. Washington
05/22/1968 Jim Nash vs. Cleveland
05/08/1968 Catfish Hunter vs. Minnesota

Since the A's moved to Oakland, A's pitcher have pitched 997 complete games. Only 94 or 9.4% have happened without a pitcher allowing a walk or home run. The feat was once more common as you can see, even happening in both ends of a doubleheader in 1968 at Comiskey Park. The two perfect games (fielding included) are obviously on the list. Oakland's first defense-independent perfect game was Catfish Hunter's perfect game in 1968 whereas Dallas Braden's perfect game was the first of his two defense-independent perfect games in 2010.

Just like real perfect games which go from pitchers of Hall of Fame caliber like Catfish Hunter to pitchers who we may love but would otherwise be relegated forgotten in the annals of history like Dallas Braden had he not had 27 up and 27 down, these defense independent perfect games have all types of pitchers on them. But it is a fun list and if it weren't for those pesky eight other fielders letting in some hits there are 92 other guys here who did everything they were supposed to do.

2 recs  |  46 comments

Comments

But when you talk about defensive positioning....

It is also dependent on the pitcher being accurate with the pitch the defense was expecting. You can’t measure if hits were poorly positioned fielders, poorly pitched balls or just good hitting. You also can’t differentiate between a home run and a double/triple that hit off the wall (especially in Boston).

Like all stats, I see a point in FIP, but I don’t see it as the be all end all that you and others do.

David can defend himself, but I don’t think he sees it as the be-all-end-all, and I further don’t think there’s a sabermetrically inclined analyst worth their salt who does. This seems to me like a strawman.

That is correct.

This was more of a fun exercise as opposed to a super-in-depth piece of gravity. But sort of a way of highlighting what are not everyday occurances but are still stellar pitching performances.

I see FIP as a "better but not perfect" metric,

and the problem with metrics like FIP being that we tend not to realize how unreliable ALL metrics are compared to “20/20 hindsight” (i.e., “the crystal ball”).

I’d look at it like this, as a way to acknowledge that baseball is just an insanely difficult game to predict accurately:

ERA—————————FIP—————————————————————————————————-crystal ball

In other words, FIP may be, and is, a vast improvement over the metric it has replaced, but the real “huge gap” is between the best metrics or eyes, and reality.

Sketchy "graphic" aside... I agree ;)
I try not to get too graphic.
i ilke this is as a start for fun analysis

i’d like to see this list added with a few more stats added, that being the number of balls missed (that fell for hits) for each ‘difficulty zone.’

its early in the morning but i think part of rating uzr is rating for each batted ball what kind of zone it was in (right at player, 1 range, etc). So that would help find out which shoulda/coulda been perfect games.

Course, uzr doesn’t incorporate how fast or tricky the play was (as it believes it all evens out right?) so this added facet wouldn’t maybe be much help, is there a combination of uzr’s analysis which ranks how hard the play it was, say fast line drives vs slow high flyballs?

I suppose someone could do that analysis for more recent games

But that person is not I. It would be interesting to see how everything sort of shakes out. Of course not all these performances were created the same. Some where great some merely solid.

But here in the real world

Games are not played independent of pitching. Indeed when the pitcher through his skill induces weak contact, often who is called upon to make the play defensively is the pitcher himself. Indeed, I remember one game in particular, a weekday home game in April or May, where Brandon McCarthy made two errors that contributed to his losing a game he pitched well enough to win. Unlike the Ron Washington years, defense was a problem for the A’s in 2011, and pitchers were the worst offenders. I long for the day they, to steal from 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh, “dominate the details” and make a point to work on fielding and indeed the instant they release a pitch focus intensely on their defense, indeed, saying “hit it to me! hit it to me!” Emulate Greg Maddux. Alas, Greg Maddux is now working with the Texas Rangers.

The A’s were the median team this year at turning batted balls into outs.

Now, if they wanted to win, they had to be better than the median because their collection of hitters was not very impressive. But overall, their defense was perfectly adequate.

Wait a minute: our collection of hitters was VERY impressive

You should see how many batted balls they turned into outs!

Perfect games should be high achievements

At the very least, a “DIPG” should include 0 BBs, 0 HRs, and no “line drives”.

That's an interesting concept.

In the link Dan shared, TangoTiger argues that it ought to be an FIP of 0.00 or lower in which case the A’s have NEVER done it, including Braden and Hunter’s actual perfect games.

not does FIP account for all those balks!

Sarcasm

Hey David,

congrats on The Book Blog mention!

http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/fielding_independent_perfect_games/

Thank you Dan!

@cuppingmaster brought it to my attention as I “re-got” cell reception in the middle of the desert. It was pretty exciting waiting the 6 minutes for it to load (thanks AT&T 3G!)

Just saw that Hardball Times added it as a link too on their THT Links

(freaking cool) :D

I went back and watched the Condensed Version of the game, and there are important insights from the visual perspective.

Perhaps the biggest one is to recall the unbelievable 9th-inning Weeks-flip-to-Pennington-to-Allen ground out. Here, the defense made it so McCarthy would pitch to one less batter, increasing his chances of successfully finishing the DIPG (or, maybe better, DIReallyAmazingGame or DIRAG).

Second, and this is an interesting point about McCarthy more than anything else, it looks like pretty much every K was an above-the-belt fastball.

Third, I think that eyeballing a game gives some sense of the non-randomness of BABIP. When the ball comes off the bat, you can pretty much tell with 90% accuracy whether it is a hit or an out. This means, to me, that there is such a thing as the “quality of contact” and that is something between the pitcher and the batter. DIP/FIP is cool because it is predictive, but I’m not convinced it tells us any better than Game Score how well a pitcher pitched on that day.

Fourth, I love this post!

Great post.

Am I the only one worried about Weeks defense?

I know that play is outstanding but I recall a couple moments when he tried that and it failed.

It makes me think if a good 2b would have gotten to it. Would Ellis? Would it even be possible if Pennington didnt range past the bag and have an absolute cannon?

He kind of reminds of Tejada or Jeter. Make highlight plays but overall below average.

I've always worried about his arm -- not real strong, not real accurate

I think his glove/footwork can and will improve; not so confident about his arm.

of course arm is least important for 2Bs
Least important amongst 2B, SS, and 3B

Not less important than the left earlobe.

Well I guess I should make it clear

I am worried about his footwork, his reactions and his propensity to turn normal plays into flashy plays.

Being able to tell a hit from an out when the ball leaves the bat

even if you can do that, is not the same thing as saying that the pitcher controls that quality of contact. That was Voros McCracken’s original insight: that pitchers really don’t seem to control the quality of balls-batted-in-play.

That is quite an insight - I think I've not yet truly incorporated it into my mindset.

It’s like, I understand it over the long haul, but when I watch a game, I see two guys, 60 feet 6 apart, and the outcome is the outcome of their little dance together. Funny how my brain cheats me so often.

Or at least as much as we previously thought/assumed

What I wonder is whether this might change specifically when a pitcher gets tired (“hits a wall”). Do pitchers, once they run out of gas, become more hittable on balls in play? I wouldn’t be surprised.

I think you're probably right about Game Score

I always thought that FIP was more useful for its predictive value, as generally the components are repeatable, more so than ERA. But then again Fangraphs has FIP as a component of WAR, so they obviously think it works well at evaluating past perfomance. But is it anymore valuable than Game Score or ERA? I don’t think so unless you are trying to predict future performance

I like this.

How long did the research take?

Or how long was the SQL query?
yeah, that.
Actually I did it the old fashioned way (sort of)

I just sorted it in a giant excel spreadsheet.

So it took a little while just to download 40+ season’s worht of pitching logs.

Anyone who can help me with a FASTER way of doing it

(I know I should just subscribe to Baseball-Reference!) I’m all ears.

It all depends on where you access the data and the data format.
The leaders:

The Original Big 3- Hunter/Holtzman/Blue- tied with 10 each, Langford 6, Hudson and Mulder 5.

Were any of these extra inning games?

Yes

Just ONE – September 27th, 1972 (Catfish Hunter) it was a 10 inning complete game 2-1 win. I also did not count 8 inning ones, I went back and forth on that, because if we are truly saying defense independent, it should also be offense independent, so the pitcher can be faulted for the game ending prematurely on the road due to a poor offense, but ultimately I scrapped that in favor of just nine inning affairs.

Good to know

It looks like good pitchers are able to get several of these. I wonder if that holds true across the league?

Actually I inspired someone (a first!) to do it for the Kansas City Royals

http://kcbbh.blogspot.com/2012/01/royals-as-defense-independent-perfect.html

He did not do my mistake of excluding HBPs (that reduces my numebr from 94 games to 86, I haven’t yet searched whcih they are). But he has a similar mix of Bret Saberhagen and Zack Greinke to guys like Jason Jacome and Hipolito Pichardo.

"Hipolito Pichardo"

Can you imagine if that was a real name!

his real name was Fausto Carmona and he was 104
Kinda pitched like it.
also though...

Jacome’s name is pretty sweet for a P. It was pronounced Hack-o-me which is like Hack-on-me. Maybe that’s why I never minded him with the Mets or Royals

its funny

you said the defense let down the picher by giving up hits…dingers are usually slightly mishit balls with some air underneath them..as a coach when my pitcher gives up hard hit balls i become concerned hes done..even if the balls are outs…hows is a ball pissed on the defensesd fault?

The big surprise for me is Stan Bahnsen.

He has three. It took me a couple of minutes to even remember him. He was the fifth/spot starter for a couple of years in the mid 70s. I looked it up – he only had 32 starts with the A’s. That’s one out of evey 11 starts. Of the leaders that 67marquez lists above, Holtzman is the only one that did it more than half as often (one for every 15 starts).

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