First off, I'm on record saying my ideal scenario is to see Tommy Milone make the rotation out of spring training, but to see Jarrod Parker, who is coming off of TJS, and Brad Peacock, who still has some refinement work to do on his changeup, start at AAA and delay their service clocks another year as a bonus.
That being said, my hope of an Opening Day rotation of Brandon McCarthy, Guillermo Moscoso, Josh Outman, Tommy Milone, Tyson Ross/Dallas Braden took a significant hit when it was established that Seth Smith cannot pitch left-handed one day and right-handed another. It's looking more and more like Parker and Peacock are going to have the same opportunity Trevor Cahill and Brett Anderson had in 2009. Is this a big problem?
I think there's a tendency to forget that aiming to be competitive in 2015 does not mean "saving all your bullets for 2015" in a "don't unveil them until the grand opening" kind of way. Pitchers need time to go through rough patches, adjust, get adjusted to, and settle in before they are usually of the caliber and consistency you would associate with a "playoff contender".
At the same time, it's necessary to note that if you want 5 good starting pitchers you had better have 10 prospects. About half of them will either get injured or flame out. So the following list discusses each pitcher's projected standing if he stays healthy, and progresses right on schedule, from here on out. It will only actually happen some of the time. But here's how the A's could be lined up for 2015 if Parker, Peacock, and Milone all start burning their service clocks in April, 2012 -- and also start getting big league experience in April, 2012.
Your 2015 Oakland A's starting rotation, with "rotation slot" in parentheses:
Parker (#1 or #2), Peacock (#3), and Milone (#4) are established "young veteran" pitchers entering their 4th season in the big leagues. They still have three years of contract control left.
Sonny Gray (#2), perhaps making the rotation out of spring training in 2013, has two full seasons under his belt and is entering his 3rd season.
Brett Anderson (#1) is two years removed from Tommy John surgery, entering the final year of his contract.
A.J. Cole (#1), perhaps having gotten a taste of the big leagues in September, 2014, is fighting for a spot in the 2015 rotation.
Michael Ynoa, now 23, Raul Alcantara, now 22, perhaps Tyson Ross, A.J. Griffin, Daniel Straily, or a pitcher drafted in the upcoming 2012 draft, vie for available spots.
My point being, if you're serious about contending you need to have a core of good established pitchers and the A's are poised to have that in 2015 without the spectre of losing a bunch of them at the same time. Even if they don't extend any of them, all but Anderson are going to be under contract through 2017 even if their service clocks begin 2 months from now. Seems ok to me, and in some ways beneficial -- you don't want almost all your pitchers to have 2 years or less of major league experience as you rev up for your playoff run.
In other news, Susan Slusser reports that the A's are close to signing Jonny Gomes, who mashes LHPs, doesn't mash RHPs, and kind of mashes balls in the OF not in a good way. Based on their career splits, a Jonny Gomes/Seth Smith platoon could rake to the tune of about a .287/.367/.513 line while taking up two roster spots and combining to be a below-average LFer.
0 recs | 62 comments
J Willy & DDJ v. Reddick/Smith/Gomes
Could this actually be a LF/RF combo that is almost as good as last year? It’s definitely cheaper.
A'sIN - January 19, 2012
Interesting question, because
while Smith and Gomes hurt you defensively, so did Willingham, and while DDJ was a good defensive player so is Reddick. So defensively you’re about the same and offensively…could be very similar.
Nico - January 19, 2012
There is this possibility...
Figure that Reddick, Crisp and Smith are the primary outfielders, and the #4 outfielder is Cowgill for defense and possible offense. That puts Gomes as the #5 outfielder and primary DH against lefties. It also means that Mitchell, Taylor and Cardenas start the season in AAA, unless somehow Cardenas can force his way into the line-up as the back-up 3B/1B/sixth outfielder.
richwol1 - January 19, 2012
I would think Carter is going to DH against LHPs
(and hopefully RHPs too!), so not sure Gomes fits there.
Nico - January 19, 2012
I don't think Beane trusts Carter
But I do think Beane meant it when he said that Smith would play every day, which puts Gomes at DH.
richwol1 - January 19, 2012
Possible.
I don’t see Carter at AAA, where he has nothing to prove and will just stall, putting up “good numbers because he’s old for his league”. I have to think he’s on a big league roster somewhere in 2012.
Nico - January 19, 2012
they are not likely to match Willingham's power production
OaklandSi - January 19, 2012
oops, meant to be a reply to Nico
OaklandSi - January 19, 2012
No, though combined Willingham and DDJ had 39 HRs
and I could see Smith/Gomes and Reddick combining for about 30.
Nico - January 19, 2012
Re: Jeth Smomes
Your guess at the Lowenstein/Roenicke platoon might be pretty close to the mark.
I’ll bet Murray, Singleton, Palmer and Boddicker are available, too.
Nick - January 19, 2012
I worry that Palmer could be past his prime.
Nico - January 19, 2012
So you're telling me that you wouldn't trade first and second round draft picks for him?
Jack_S - January 20, 2012
Hey, we're not selling Jockeys here
Nick - January 20, 2012
Another stray thought that didn't make it into the post:
I could be totally 100% wrong on Brandon Allen and he could be an uber-bust, but I have this dread that he is poised to become the next Ryan Ludwick, Nelson Cruz, Carlos Peña: A guy the A’s don’t stick with and who blossoms when finally given a real chance.
He’s an agile defender and a very good baserunner, both indicators that he has some athleticism and “baseball acumen” as well as an indicator that he can help you beyond how well he is mashing baseballs. And the guy might be able to mash baseballs — maybe not yesterday or today but maybe tomorrow and soon. I wish the A’s would stick with him.
Nico - January 19, 2012
I totally agree.
If I’m going based solely on upside, athleticism and effort-level I’ll take Allen at first. He really seemed like a good guy and a good fit last year. Barton just flat out cannot hit, even if he’s a great defender and a patient hitter. Chris Carter is not a good defender and sometimes it looks like he’s not trying. I hope we hold on to Allen for this season and see what he can do.
A'sIN - January 19, 2012
Barton can hit, and has hit
He doesn’t have power but does have on base skills and defensive skills. Basically, each player potentially brings some stuff to the table and can’t bring other stuff.
Barton’s actually the only one of the two who has had a great, or even good, big league season. So my feelings about sticking with Allen have nothing to do with Barton, one way or the other.
Nico - January 19, 2012
Well it's hard for me to forget 2009 and 2011 Daric
but you’re right 2010 Daric was pretty darn good. He had a high WAR that year, even for a 1B.
A'sIN - January 19, 2012
Ben Grieve once had a pretty nice season too
But let’s not bring him back. Barton may be the best we can do (I really hope not), but I really don’t think there is any team in baseball which would be excited to have him as their every day first baseman
Alvin Dark - January 19, 2012
Indeed
I wish we’d cut Kila, who does have bust written all over him.
cuppingmaster - January 19, 2012
You need to clarify that
Let’s review, shall we?
Ryan Ludwick
99: drafted by A’s
02: traded to Rangers*
03: traded to Indians
05: released**
05: signed by Tigers
06: released**
06: signed by Cardinals
and then finally becomes good.
Nelson Cruz
98: signed by Mets (international FA)
00: traded to A’s
04: traded to Brewers
06: traded to Rangers
06: put on waivers, but clears because nobody claims him**
06: called up by Rangers
and then finally becomes good.
Carlos Peña
98: drafted by Rangers
02: traded to A’s*
02: traded to Tigers
06: released**
06: signed by Yankees
06: released**
06: signed by Red Sox
06: released**
07: signed by Rays
and then finally becomes good.
* = same trade!
** = At this point, any team could have had him.
So if your fears are realized and Brandon Allen becomes the next Ludwick, Cruz or Peña, his career mght look like this:
Brandon Allen
04: drafted by White Sox
09: traded to Diamondbacks
11: traded to A’s
12: traded to ??
12: released**
13: signed by ??
13: released**
14: signed by ?? and then finally becomes good.
2014 till the end of time: Disgruntled A’s fans say, “ZOMG, we gave up on Brandon Allen! Billy Bean suxks! Moneyball is a fraud!”
iglew - January 19, 2012
True. Perhaps there are better examples of players the A's gave up on very quickly,
who went on to become good pretty soon after. They just don’t pop to my mind.
Nico - January 19, 2012
The standard answers lately have been Ethier and CarGon
Nick - January 19, 2012
Actually, CarGon is a great example because
he clearly had potential, the A’s didn’t seem to like his attitude or plate discipline, and gave him up really quickly in a trade of questionable thinking.
I’d say Ethier was more of a calculated move designed to compete in 2006, in which the A’s got what they needed and had to give up someone good in order to make it happen.
Nico - January 19, 2012
the A's have actually said that they were surprised that
Ethier was so good when he got his MLB shot. They thought he would develop a little more slowly than he did. They also mentioned that Travis Buck was the same player, just a bit behind, which made them more open to trading Ethier.
Obviously, there were two mistakes in judgment.
OaklandSi - January 20, 2012
But in a different way, those are bad examples.
Both Ethier and González had actual value when we “gave up on them”, and therefore they got solid players back in trade.
Ethier was traded for Milton Bradley, who had a 2.7 WAR year after the trade. González was part of the trade for Matt Holliday, who had a 5.6 WAR year after the trade.
Does anybody here think Brandon Allen could get a 2.5 WAR player in trade? I don’t.
iglew - January 19, 2012
exactly
why trade him if the A’s can’t get anything good for him? The A’s only had to give up Brad Ziegler (aprox a 1 WAR per year reliever) to get him (and the D-Backs had to throw a young reliever as well). Do the A’s really need a 1 WAR reliever this year?
micdog2001 - January 20, 2012
me too
OaklandSi - January 19, 2012
We should've held on to all of those guys for 7 years.
When Richie Robnett hits 30 HRs in 2016, people around here are gonna be pissed.
BWH - January 19, 2012
F***
reply to iglew
BWH - January 19, 2012
On the plus side, there's this:
Jack Cust
97: drafted by Diamondbacks
02: traded to Rockies
03: traded to Orioles
04: released**
04: signed by A’s
05: released**
05: signed by Padres
07: traded to A’s
and then finally becomes good.
iglew - January 19, 2012
YAYYYY in 2015:
Brett Anderson
Peacock
Parker
Milone
Gray
A.J. Cole
Ynoa
McCarthy
Ross
The 9 man rotation of death!
true torture - January 19, 2012
Service clock
Even aside from any question of when the A’s will be competitive, I just don’t see what the big deal is.
In “The Book”, Tom Tango concludes that a pitcher’s best years are age 24-30. If you figure you’re going to control a guy for six years, you get the best part of his career if he debuts at age 24 or 25.
How old are our guys? Milone turns 25 in February. Peacock turns 24 in February, and Parker turns 24 in November.
Even if we start them right out of spring training, we’re not that far off. If we start them later in the year, we’re pretty much right on schedule. It’s not like we’re starting them at 21 and going to lose them while still in their prime years. Worst-case scenario is Parker becomes a free agent for his age 29 season in 2018.
iglew - January 19, 2012
No reason they'll have to walk in their first FA year either.
The A’s tend to buy out early free agency years anyways, and we should have money by 2018 after the hopeful SJ move.
BWH - January 19, 2012
But enough about Cahill and Anderson!
Nico - January 19, 2012
You make an interesting point there, iglew.
My main concern is that I don’t want any of these kids to be forced into the starting rotation by default.
I’m actually ok with Mllone making the rotation since he seems to have enough experience in the big leagues to handle himself. The other guys, I’m not comfortable with yet…….me thinks they definitely need more seasoning….like my taco meat!
:-)
mrod - January 19, 2012
We'll also be signing free agents
Nico – come the mythical 2015, which could easily be 2016, 2017 or next decade, you’re making the default assumption that it will be all home grown talent. I’m guessing at that point in time, we’re going to have some $ to invest in Free Agents, perhaps $30-$40mil, so I don’t think up to two high quality free agent starters is out of the question. Given that what we really need to do is produce 3 really good solid SPs (no mean feat), and we’re in good shape for 2015 (or whenever it is)
Shed - January 19, 2012
oh and we'll also possibly be mortgaging....
…. our 2013 and 2014 prospects for major league tades
Shed - January 19, 2012
I'm hoping to build around big money to Jorge Soler
I call it the “Soler System”.
Nico - January 19, 2012
Will we rename his hits to,
“Soler Flares”?
Tutu-late - January 19, 2012
I'll send that idea to a vote
from our “Soler Panel”.
Nico - January 19, 2012
But is this guy projected to have "Soler Power?"
puts a new spin on green and gold.
Toast4 - January 20, 2012
Totally OT:
Baseball fans:
try this. I got 28 in 10 mins. I think most of you can do better
http://www.sporcle.com/games/mlbdarinh/mlb-most-hits-by-batting-order-position-2000s
closetasfan - January 19, 2012
I only got 20. I suck.
Many of those names seem obvious afterward, but somehow I blank out when I’m trying to come up with a bunch.
iglew - January 19, 2012
Cindi actually got 2, but she also thought she was doing the Jumble.
Nico - January 19, 2012
Or maybe she thought she was ordering a
Jumbaco?
mrod - January 19, 2012
I also got 20 and that was only because a few had the same last name
I played a 2nd time, and could only come up with 28 (somehow I missed a couple that I wrote down the 1st time so I technically I got 30 total).
that was diffiicult, I kept thinking of players who only have been around a few years. I only got 1 name in the 7,8,9 spots.
micdog2001 - January 20, 2012
I'm addicted to those sporcle quizzes
I got 40.
stormtown - January 20, 2012
wow
nice
micdog2001 - January 20, 2012
I had not known Sporcle before this.
I followed the links and went crazy, especially with the history and geography ones. I’m not sure that’s a good thing. They are way more addictive to me than any game would be.
iglew - January 20, 2012
What's always been hard for me to wrap my head around in these trades is how long we could have controlled Gio and Cahill.
Gio just signed an extension with options through 2018. Cahill has options through 2017. If we start the guys we got in 2012 then I think we have contract control through 2017, right? So we’re really not trading now for the future, we’re trading now for cheaper and different (and hopefully better and more numerous). These aren’t the paradigmatic “rebuilding” type trades.
DDroney - January 20, 2012
*although cheaper also opens the door to signing free agents during our competitive window of 2015-2017
DDroney - January 20, 2012
Wouldn't we also potentially be competitive for longer once (if?) the new stadium opens?
If the SJ stadium is completed around 2015, then the A’s would only have Gio and Cahill for the first two or three years in the yard. I think the FO is aiming to build a team that won’t fizzle out or lose its window within the first five years of a new park.
TheWoodyD - January 20, 2012
that's just what I'm saying though, most of the new guys will only be around for the first three years in the yard, same as Cahill and Gio.
The trades give you more players for cheaper, but you don’t control them any longer unless you extend them.
DDroney - January 21, 2012
That's Alright
Considering the fact that they would all be fairly young guys with a few years of experience. Of course, hopefully they’ll actually pitch well, because if they do, then we should have a good rotation. How about the bullpen, though?
Sean Fortuna - January 20, 2012
Chances are, the bullpen will turn over nearly 100% from now to 2015
Maybe DLS is around, maybe Ross is around and in the pen. Most likely, there’s 7 guys, 5 of whom aren’t on the roster right now one of whom we know well, and one of whom is currently in our minors.
Nico - January 20, 2012
Recommended posts.
In the old days, when there was an obsolete DLD clogging up the “recommended posts” section of the sidebar, we would put a comment at the end asking people to unrecommend it to make it go away.
But I can’t put a comment in there. Just sayin’.
iglew - January 20, 2012
Hmm...I can "hide" it if you want
and then “unhide” it when it would no longer show up in the recommended section. Or you could hope this comment reaches enough people who can “unrec” it. Or we can just wait for it to run its course. Those are the only 3 options I can think of.
Nico - January 20, 2012
you might as well hide it
micdog2001 - January 20, 2012
Yes, because THAT never gets me into trouble. ;-)
Nico - January 20, 2012
No, I wouldn't hide it.
I was just thinking bump it off the recommended list. I suppose we could over-rec everything else in order to promote them.
iglew - January 20, 2012
I'll get Cindi to do separate FanPosts for each of her 6 favorite recipes,
and then you can all promote them like crazy.
Nico - January 20, 2012
I rec'ed a bunch of stuff
and got one more fanpost to the list but your is still up there.
micdog2001 - January 20, 2012
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