With the trades of Andrew Bailey, Trevor Cahill, and Gio Gonzalez, I hope we're now all on the same page. 2015 or bust. Over the next two years, there will be a lot of baseball that is difficult to watch. Hopefully, there's growth and signs that the future is in fact bright. I'm not inventing any new doctrine with this next statement, but I'd rather watch a terrible team on which each player is under 25 than a mediocre team with a bunch of veterans that leave little to the imagination.
Which would be good for a number of reasons. Most obviously perhaps, building a baseball team internally, whether through the draft, trades for prospects, or international signings, is the most cost effective manner by which to build. The A's have no choice but to use cost-effective means to build a team. You may have seen a major motion picture describing this phenomenon. Another side effect of a roster full of young players (meaning pre-arbitration) is that they're ridiculously cheap. Not one of them will make a million dollars in a season. Having a roster full of players with less than three years experience would create a payroll as low as $20 million.
That said, the MLB Players Association has certain....let's call it expectations. The MLBPA is one of the most powerful unions in operation, made so by fierce leader Marvin Miller and helped enormously by the Peter Seitz decision regarding Andy Messersmith and Dave McNally in 1975, effectively creating free agency. The players association would never allow a team to artificially hold salaries down by having no veterans on the roster, despite that being the optimal strategy for the organization. There's a breakeven point at which the A's could satisfy the MLBPA while spending as little money as possible. Where is that point?
They've spent between $40 and 80 million in each of the last ten seasons, averaging about $58 million. In the last five years that average is $63 million with a minimum of $48 million. Let's round and call the minimum $50 million, which probably accounts for a small bit of inflation and the like.
I went back through each team's payroll for the last five years to find the smallest payrolls. Here's the bottom five:
After re-signing Coco Crisp, a move that raised some eyebrows around here, the A's have eight players under contract for next year for just over $28 million. They have 31 more players on the 40-man roster with under three years of experience, meaning they'll be paid between $200,000 and $900,000 for the coming season. If we call that $600,000 per player, that's another $10 million, putting us shy of $40 million in total team payroll. The A's have made it very clear that they don't plan to contend this coming season, so $40 million might be enough to satisfy the MLBPA.
Of course, the A's are short on outfielders, and someone had to play centerfield. It just so happens that that someone likely won't be around when the A's have a chance to be good again, but it's not hard to imagine Coco earning his $6 million this season. He could prove to be a valuable trade chip this summer or next offseason. But I think his contract as much as anything was about making sure the A's spend enough money on players to not hear from Michael Weiner and his posse at the MLBPA this winter, and I wouldn't be surprised if there's one or two more like it still to come (looking at you, Cody Ross).
0 recs | 103 comments
Coco's a No-Go
The A’s won’t be able to use Coco as a trade chip for prospects because right now, the only way to get a decent prospect is to trade a front-line young player, and even then you’re probably only going to get pitchers, not position players. Trading Crisp will most likely yield another older former top prospect or a kid with a low ceiling. If Gio Gonzalez, Trevor Cahill and Andrew Bailey combined can’t get a top position prospect, why would Crisp? And the A’s at this point don’t need another pitching prospect.
richwol1 - January 12, 2012
I'm not optimistic about Coco's trade value
but I’m still in favor of bringing him back simply because the A’s need someone to play the outfield. People on AN have been getting worked up over the fact that Coco will take away at-bats from the younger guys, but I guarantee that whoever is 7th on the outfield depth chart at the end of spring training will still end up getting significant numbers of major league at-bats.
colin - January 12, 2012
Agreed: I think Coco was a good signing and we needed to spend anyway.
theoriginalrods - January 12, 2012
Agree on trading Coco
It wouldn’t be for much anyway, given that it was a two-year deal and next year he’ll be a 34-year old centerfielder whose value relies heavily on his defense.
DanHennessey31 - January 12, 2012
just checked the A's website
merging the LF/CF/RF depth charts, I get:
Plus you could get some outfield play from Carter (listed as 1B/DH), Allen (listed as 1B), and Rosales (listed as SS/3B).
I think everyone I just listed will get at least one outfield start for the 2012 A’s.
colin - January 12, 2012
I'm okay with having Coco
Some veteran presence is necessary on the team, and he can help stabilize the outfield. But I think he has absolutely no trade value, and anyone who thinks he can be flipped for anyone with value is just plain wrong.
richwol1 - January 12, 2012
I tend to agree with you here
if a contending team wanted him they could have signed him instead of having to give up a player for him.
micdog2001 - January 12, 2012
If the A's fall short of the "floor"
They should look into signing a Rich Harden or Roy Oswalt to a one-year deal to push them over. These types of players have trade deadline trade value, plain and simple. Also gives the A’s a chance to let the pitching prospects mature in Sacramento if need be. The starting pitching depth contrary to many people’s claims is not particularly deep at the MLB level for us right now.
dwishinsky - January 12, 2012
I really like the idea of bringing in Oswalt
I think the A’s should bring in at least 2 more free agents. Oswalt would be a great pick-up. He unlike Crisp can bring decent prospects at the trade deadline. Free Agents can add to a team with realatively little negatives. I don’t think 1 more starting pitcher will crush the development of the young guys. Also, I just don’t think Beane will resist a true steal of a bargain.
Yellowhorse - January 12, 2012 via mobile
I sort of like the Oswalt idea
but I really want them to be in the bottom 5 for the next couple years so we can get a top 5 pick or 2. Oswalt may pull some prospects at the deadline, but ironically, he may help us win too much if that makes sense.
Dan Bowen - January 12, 2012
Oswalt
Signing Oswalt if he seem to be health, could turn into a fucking-A move.
With the MLB seeming to all be showing self control. The A’s could sign Oswalt for around 10 million. Ten starts into the season they then flip him to the Yanks or Sox when Garcia or Cook or Silva have not worked out. If the A’s sign Oswalt for 8 million with a 2 million signing bonus, the team getting would only be on the hook for about 5 million. Maybe Peacock comes up to replace him. He is not here long enough to keep the A’s from sucking. He helps push Parker and Peacock back to AAA, to stop their clock from starting. So many good reasons, if he is health, to make this happen.
dougald1 - January 12, 2012
How many wins do you think half a season of Oswalt adds?
In his best years his WAR was between 6 and 7, and he’s declined a bit since then. If we trade him in July, then optimistically he’s adding 3 wins.
Now let’s take a look at last year’s reverse standings to see what that translates to. Three more wins does not drop the Astros from #1 to #2. Three wins does not drop the Twins from #2 to #3. Three wins does drop the Mariners by one slot, from #3 to #4.
After that it gets interesting because now there are five teams clumped up with either 71 or 72 wins. As a result, three wins would drop the Orioles from #4 to #7, or the Royals from #5 to #10.
The Royals situation can be seen as the worst-case scenario. If Oswalt really does get us 3 wins, and those wins just happen to span a stretch where a bunch of teams happen to be clumped, he could make us suffer a drop comparable to #5 to #10. But really, how bad is that? Is the #10 pick that much worse than the #5 pick? And that’s worst case. More likely it will be something milder like dropping #3 to #4, or possibly no difference at all.
iglew - January 12, 2012
If Oswalt is worth 3 wins by July 31st, I'll eat my hat.
King Richard - January 12, 2012
hat
Would that be an A’s hat or the hat of the team he is traded to?
dougald1 - January 12, 2012
Is that 3 wins or 3 "wins"?
If Oswalt is 10-3 with the A’s by July 31st, I don’t care how many “wins” he’s worth.
richwol1 - January 12, 2012
I don't care
I don’t care how many wins he has, if on July 31 or before, he brings a B+ prospect in return as he is traded away
dougald1 - January 12, 2012
Two things.
Realistically, would Oswalt come here, with other teams like the Red Sox, Yankees, and Rangers after him?
His WAR in 2010 was 4.7, but dipped to 2.5.
David Fung - January 12, 2012
Money
For some reason each of those teams have not signed Oswalt yet. The Sox and Yanks are both in a self imposed cap on spending, while Texas is likely only interested if Davish falls though. If the A’s strike fast and hard, they can likely be a high bidder.
The reason for Oswalt coming is that he will get a chance to increase his value in a pitchers park, in a low stress team and know that come July he will be moved to a contender. In addition to the A’s being a high bidder.
Yes he was hurt last year, but before that he had something like 8 years in a row of making 30 starts a year. If health he is a great pick up.
Oswalt is a way better option than a Damon, Harden, Ludwick or Ross,
dougald1 - January 13, 2012
Furthermore
If he signs with the A’s knowing full well they will deal him at the deadline, he could very well be better assured of being with a winner if one of those teams stumbles out of the gate or something or is befelled by injuries and is buried in teh standings unexpectedly.
dwishinsky - January 13, 2012
I like it if he's healthy obviously.
I don’t think we need to see another Ben Sheets type contract given out to a player that will likely just get hurt. But I don’t know that Oswalt’s injury history is on par with Sheets. And if he pitches well he should be able to be traded to someone for something decent.
And as far as free agent pitchers go he’s probably the one that will get us the most in a trade, right?
Cartwright - January 12, 2012
I don't think that Harden qualifies as a type of player that has
I mean, what kind of trade deadline did he provide us with last year? And why is there any reason to believe he’ll be any healthier or valuable this year?
The same really goes for Crisp. One of the reasons few if any teams would be willing to part with even mid level prospects in exchange for him is that his health has been such an issue in the past, that he’s just not reliable enough to take a flier on. Teams weren’t even really interested in shelling out free agent money for him, a low cost risk, comparably, considering the insurance involved, because of his inability to consistently stay on the field.
oakballnack - January 12, 2012
The Red Sox were going to send a prospect in Anderson to us for him
That deal fell thru cuz of the medicals yeah but there was interest in him and inexplicably the Red Sox went in another direction. It happened so late I bet it stymied any chance to make something else work out. Then the Indians claimed him off waivers in August. There was clear interest. Coco deals went NO WHERE and understandly so.
dwishinsky - January 12, 2012
If Coco had trade value he would have been flipped at the deadline last year.
I think it’s all about spending the $ to keep MLB happy. Good read, and agree that there will be at least one more signing before opening day. I’m just hoping it’s a pitcher, not an aging veteran with a declining bat.
theoriginalrods - January 12, 2012
+1,000,000
MMunoz33 - January 12, 2012
Amen
dwishinsky - January 12, 2012
flip
I think each year is different. While last year Coco was not flipped, that in it self does not mean that he could not be flipped. Last year, there might have been a few reasons. Did any team need a centerfielder? If for example, if Ellberry was hurt for the Sox, likely there would have been interest. Also, and this is just a guess, was there a chance that Coco could have been or gotten to a type B comp FA? If there was little interest, does Beane just hold out hope that Coco can be a B?
All that being said, with Coco signing for two years, that makes it much harder to flip him.
dougald1 - January 12, 2012
Good thing we're not looking at Johnny Damon or anything
Oh wait. Damn.
cuppingmaster - January 13, 2012
Eff it...
Spend like crazy and move to the high end of the $40 to $480 million range, $300 million minimum.
Max Hartman - January 12, 2012
HAHA
Thanks for the catch. OOPS
DanHennessey31 - January 12, 2012
You can edit it and fix it, no harm done...
justANotherAsFan - January 12, 2012
One word...Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks went from last in 2010 to first in 2011. They had the 28 worst pitching staff in 2010, by ERA. After a few changes and “going young” they ranked 14th in pitching in 2011. They “lost” Dan Haren, Edwin Jackson, and Rodrigo Lopez from the 2010 staff, yet vastly improved. Rookie Josh Collmenter and a few additional no names lead them to the playoffs.
The offense stayed about the same with a team OPS of .736 in 2010 and a .740 in 2011. Who is to say Oakland can’t accomplish the same feat.
The A’s were 25th in OPS in 2011 leaving plenty of room for improvement. We have had a few fans chime in with predictions of win/loss record for 2012, but with all of the rookies such predictions are very difficult to support. They could actually lose 100 games…but then again they could be the Diamondbacks of 2012!
Hang Man - January 12, 2012
In the NL West, or the NL in general maybe. The AL is just too strong for such a feat to be accomplished.
theblackpearl - January 12, 2012
Anytime I see "feat" and "accomplished" in the same sentence...
…I think of this exchange from “Happy Gilmore”
“Trying to reach the green from here, Shooter?”
“I’m afraid that’s impossible, sir.”
“I beg to differ. Happy Gilmore accomplished that feat no more than an hour ago.”
“Well, moron, good for Happy GilmoOH MY GOD.”
(at the risk of turning this thread into a “Happy Gilmore” quote barrage)
DanHennessey31 - January 12, 2012
Wanna go to Red Lobster later?
Geronimo Berroa - January 12, 2012
Gold jerseys? Green jerseys? Who gives a shit?
Degolas - January 13, 2012
The A's don't have Justin Upton or anyone who could potentially become 1/2 of Justin Upton.
Dan Bowen - January 12, 2012
Upton produced 6.4 WAR last year
I could see any of several of our guys putting up 3.2 WAR next year (Barton, Reddick, Coco, Weeks, Sizemore…)
A'sFanDFW - January 12, 2012
I also could see several replacement level seasons
Carter, Taylor, Barton, Allen
cuppingmaster - January 12, 2012
we may improve in some positions but such a dramatic turnaround is damn near impossible given that the Rangers and Angels play in this division...
Billy Frijoles - January 12, 2012
There are two wild card spots now, right?
laserbeams - January 12, 2012
like others have said, the A's could be the 2012 D-Backs
if Carter, Allen, and Suzuki play like Upton, Young, and Montero did. And if someone pitches like Kennedy and Hudson (some combo of McCarthy, Anderson, Braden, Outman, and Moscoso)
micdog2001 - January 12, 2012
pass whatever you are drinking
certainly, expectations could not possibly be lower. Opponents will rest their starters against us and still crush us 3 out of 4. We will rejoice if we do not lose 100 games.
bajablue - January 12, 2012
I don't expect it to happen
the odds are way against it, I’m just saying it could happen.
my offical prediction is in the crystal ball thread. I don’t think they lose 100, it has only happened once in Oakland history.
I also don’t think opponents will rest their starters, I always thought players rest if they are hurt or slumping not because an opponent is bad (except for maybe in September when some teams are out of the race.) It would be interesting for someone to research that though.
micdog2001 - January 13, 2012
I love Coco
because he’s a lot of fun. But I think it’s extremely unlikely he’ll be a “valuable trade chip”.
iglew - January 12, 2012
Agreed on both counts
Coco is awesome. With him coming back and all the youngsters getting time, I’m more excited about this season than I have been since 2009.
laserbeams - January 12, 2012
Also no Geren helps.
Billy Frijoles - January 12, 2012
I don't see why not
He keeps getting underpaid in terms of $/WAR. Also, he was 2.2 WAR this last year with -5 UZR, and I’m almost positive he’s more like 0-3 UZR. He’s a useful player.
cuppingmaster - January 13, 2012
Define: useful.
There is some utility to him obviously, but it is a strange mix of skills that makes him hard to place. I think his trade value is limited at best.
dwishinsky - January 13, 2012
A league-average hitter with good speed and plus defense
Someone will be interested in him
cuppingmaster - January 13, 2012
Who is Brandon Moss?
I was reading Al Yellon’s Baseball Nation article on AAAA players…and he had this to say:
He names Moss the #1 AAAA Hitter, which I guess is a backhanded compliment if there ever was one, but basically thinks he has a chance. I haven’t really seen much about him on here. With our pathetic OFs in camp, do you think this guy has a chance to make the team?
Billy Frijoles - January 12, 2012
He could be the third coolest Brandon on our team.
iglew - January 12, 2012
Who is Brandon Moss?
He’s the guy who hit a game-tying ninth inning home run against Huston Street in Japan in the 2008 season opener. It was really early in the morning when I watched the game (because of the time zone difference) so I was particularly grumpy. I think I’m still angry about that one.
LongLiveLangerhans - January 12, 2012
If were just handing out cash to suffice MLBPA why not hire Bonds to see if he's still a draw in the Bay Area?
Maybe he could also push/ sell supplements during A’s 2012 Fan Fest and garner up some “JUICED UP” Root Beer Floats with McGwire, Canseco, Tejada, Harden, and Giambi??
2012 is about cutting costs to ensure Wolff gets his profit!!!
MMunoz33 - January 12, 2012
Monkeyball 2012; A's apply/beg for MLB foodstamps
starring Brad Pitt
MMunoz33 - January 12, 2012
If Brad gets cute and tries to charges Lew too much, our backup is Charlie Sheen!
MMunoz33 - January 12, 2012
Bonds = do not want
iglew - January 12, 2012
I don't want him either! I don't want 80% of the players on our current roster either! :)
these are very tough times!!!
MMunoz33 - January 12, 2012
I care more about the team's reputation as the steriods team
than I do about this year’s W-L record.
iglew - January 12, 2012
You mean in case anyone's forgotten about Canseco, McGwire, Giambi and Tejada?
WaddellCanseco - January 12, 2012
Is that a law firm?
Bed. - January 12, 2012
Hee
WaddellCanseco - January 12, 2012
Meanwhile, this.
I’d be shocked if it didn’t happen by the end of next week. Potentially huge news.
BWH - January 12, 2012
I want so much to believe.
Do you think Lucy is actually going to hold that football in place this time?
UrgentMirth - January 12, 2012
Lucy never holds the football long enough
robertmelvin - January 12, 2012
I think there's an open bold tag somewhere around here.
goldfish - January 13, 2012
I'm clapping like Mama Klump saying "Hercules Hercules Hercules"
Geronimo Berroa - January 12, 2012
Here?
goldfish - January 13, 2012
Looks like it.
It’s fixed now, at least.
UrgentMirth - January 13, 2012
"at a rather quick pace"
When I think of the commissioner’s office being described as quick, it makes me think of one of the Molina brothers being described as quick. Not the most accurate statement ever made…
Maybe a “quicker pace” than they had previously been moving would be a better way to put it.
Vaillant - January 12, 2012
It's not on the front burner
it’s in the worlds slowest slow-cooker.
Nick - January 13, 2012
blank check
was my childhood dream
falconsfury - January 12, 2012
The A's want to bring Johnny Damon back?
But Jonah Hill proved he wasn’t worth the money.
Bed. - January 12, 2012
But now he's not good anymore so he's worth the money.
DDroney - January 12, 2012
this
hehehe
OnlybuyBeaneJerseys - January 12, 2012
First: I love the Coco signing...
second, my guess the A’s will be somewhere around $45 million and be safe from the untion bosses; and I am +1, +1, +1 that I would rather see an extra 10 loss season, say 60 losses with all the young studs going all out, than a 70 loss season with a bunch of 1-year expensive veterans sprinkled into the mix, as in recent years.
robertmelvin - January 12, 2012
You must mean 60 wins, because 60 losses means we won 102 games... lol
Geronimo Berroa - January 12, 2012
Well, he did say "all the young studs going all out"
When you’ve got multiple young studs, and they’re all going all out, you usually don’t win only 60 games.
laserbeams - January 12, 2012
I meant 60 wins, but now that I think about it with all those
young studs running around doring their thing, maybe I got it right the first time!!
robertmelvin - January 13, 2012
Great piece
i think they are short and would guess another $5 MM will do it. While admit not likely, not inconceivable that CoCo could be moved for some value if A’s eat salary. Let’s assume hitting .290,, has 30 sb’s and playing his best cf at break—- just need contender with hole in cf and at top of order and A’s willing eat salary. Isn’t that what we are talking here— A’s spending money for purpose of spending money, not because it is what they would do for baseball reasons?
Alvin Dark - January 12, 2012
I agree great piece
I think this was overlooked by a lot of people to shed light on what has to happen in Oakland. ie we have to sign some veterns to please the union.
I also agree with some of the comments about A’s need to sign some high risk high reward veterns like Oswalt, or Penny, hope they can do well and if they do well trade them at the deadline. It’s a win win considering the pitcher gets to play for a contender if they pitch well. A get a prospect.
Crisp can also be traded at the deadline if he plays well in the first half. I believe this is why he decided to stay in Oakland and why the A’s signed him. During the off season he said he °wants to play for a contender° I bet Beane convinced him he can play for a contender if he plays well in Oakland. And this signing pleases the union.
OnlybuyBeaneJerseys - January 12, 2012
Off subject by Associated Press
PARADISE VALLEY, Ariz. — Commissioner Bud Selig says Major League Baseball is working “at a rather quick pace” to resolve the proposed move of the Oakland Athletics to a proposed new ballpark in San Jose.
Selig says there was a comprehensive presentation on the situation to the owners’ executive council on Wednesday. Selig says he doesn’t want to get into any details yet but the issue is, in his words, “very much on the front burner.”
The A’s want to move to San Jose but the San Francisco Giants have had territorial rights to San Jose since 1993. Selig appointed a committee in March 2009 to evaluate the issue facing the Bay Area teams.
robertmelvin - January 13, 2012
A follow-up link
http://www.contracostatimes.com/mark-purdy/ci_19732321
robertmelvin - January 13, 2012
Looks like the Mariners and Yankees are doing a Pineda-Montero trade
https://twitter.com/#!/JonHeymanCBS/status/157984607516639232
UrgentMirth - January 13, 2012
what else did the M's get? sounds like a pooptastic trade for the M's?
stm72 - January 13, 2012
From reading LL, the current information is Pineda/Campos for Montero/Noesi, but that's not been confirmed
UrgentMirth - January 13, 2012
that seems like a lot to give up given what the a's got for cahill/gonzalez and the pads got for latos. no?
stm72 - January 13, 2012
M's fans don't seem particularly pleased, as a whole
UrgentMirth - January 13, 2012
i would be skeptical too, if there's any question about montero sticking at catcher
stm72 - January 13, 2012
this.
If Montero is a 1B/DH…not really that great. If Montero is a C, well, they’ve solved a pretty big problem.
Billy Frijoles - January 13, 2012
can we haz smoak?
stm72 - January 13, 2012
I'm not sure many people still believe Montero is a C, but maybe the Mariners see something everyone else doesn't?
UrgentMirth - January 13, 2012
I guess that depends on what you think of Pineda
He’s probably better than Gio, Cahill, or Latos.
Billy Frijoles - January 13, 2012
and younger and cheaper and with more team control
stm72 - January 13, 2012
Glad to see Pineda off the M's
I have to say I’m not getting that trade from the M’s point of view.
Bed. - January 13, 2012
my view as well. montero is a future dh. that's a lot to give up for a hitter no matter how much pitching talent the m's have coming.
stm72 - January 13, 2012
well if they find several million dollars between the couch cushions they can sign Oswalt or Jackson
DDroney - January 13, 2012
and be worse and poorer?
stm72 - January 14, 2012
how does the package of Montero and Noesi compare to what we got for Gio?
I’d say it’s pretty comparable, but we got the value spread out over more players who are further away from playing in the big leagues. So, more geared toward 2015 than 2013. I just wish we could have at least one player who looked like a star like Montero.
DDroney - January 13, 2012
I much prefer what the A's got
(partly due to Montero’s long-term defensive limitations), and Pineda is likely to be as good or better than Gio, is cheaper and under contract control longer. More to the point, this is the most any team was willing to offer for Pineda??? I highly doubt that. Pineda is an incredibly valuable “trade chip” and the Mariners need a lot of help. And all they got was one potentially great hitter who doesn’t play good defense? Horrible trade for the M’s, IMO.
Nico - January 14, 2012
agreed all the way around
stm72 - January 14, 2012
M's didn't just give up Pineda
M’s gave up their #5 prospect in Campos as well.
Sickles:
I don’t see how Pineda was not worth as much, if not more than montero who is (basically) a 1B/DH and also blocked by Texeria & ARod.
Hmm – looks like Sickles had Noesi as Yank’s #5 in 2011
So i guess overall it’s Pineda for montero and Noesi (who is MLB ready for Campos who is a few years away).
For the A’s
Had we not already traded Gio, this trade would have lit a huge fire under the Blue Jays to give up the farm to get him. Jays are coming into their window and w/o pitching depth they’re going nowhere fast.
I bet Beane will be wondering what could have been on that front. I like the package we got from the Nats, but I think we all would have preferred the depth of the Jays system and that we would have actually added some big bats.
ru155 - January 14, 2012
Jays
So will the Jays start sniffing around McCarthy? And is it time to give him a two or three year deal?
dougald1 - January 14, 2012
as far as I recall the Yanks have never been willing to deal Montero
to anyone except the Mariners. Just before the 2010 trade deadline they were all set to send him to Seattle in a deal for Cliff Lee – and we know it was the Mariners who changed their minds at the last minute and sent him to Texas in exchange for Justin Smoak.
Interestingly, if Montero can’t stick at catcher he’ll be playing 1B and DH. As far as I know Smoak only plays 1B.
OaklandSi - January 14, 2012
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