HAPPY BIRTHDAY to my baseballdad! Love you!
AN General Consensus on 2010 starting pitching: Weed out the best starters from this season and call it a rotation. See if Duchscherer can/will come back. Maybe add a veteran starter.
AN General Consensus on 2010 bullpen: It's one of the best in the league. It is unlikely that a reliever FA is needed. Jettison Casilla. (Side note: ANDREW BAILEY FOR ROOKIE OF THE YEAR!)
AN General Consensus on 2010 offense: It's fairly awful and is missing several pieces. You know, like hitters.
As much as I love Rajai Davis, never has the phrase "sell high" been more apropos. Unless we really believe he can hit .360 for half a season ever again in his career, it might be worth entertaining some offers. If not, we have a very fast leadoff or number two hitter for next season. The A's will also have to make a decision on Adam Kennedy (and third base), and it's possible they aren't fully committed to Jack Cust and/or Scott Hairston as full-time players next season. Have the A's found the shortstop answer in Cliff Pennington (and we're assuming that 30 year old Free Agent Bobby Crosby will finally leave Oakland) or are they still searching for something they haven't had since Miguel Tejada (coincidentally, who is a FA of his own this year)?
So who is out there for the A's to sign? View the 2010 Free Agent list. Some thoughts:
First of all, I would like to see the A's sign a veteran pitcher, even though I know the offense is the pressing concern. I have decided that John Lackey is too expensive, too elite, and too sought after for the A's to sign, and I liked Randy Wolf right up until he had an amazing season for the Dodgers this year, putting him out of reach, as well.
If we're going to have to play the game where we try to get someone on the (relative) cheap just before they have an amazing year, I would suggest one of the following:
Ben Sheets (MIL)
At 31, Sheets has missed the entire 2009 season due to surgery on his right elbow. He appears to be rehabbing with the 2010 goal in mind, and his injury may drive down his price, and his suitors. He is coming off a 13-9, 3.09 ERA, 1.15 WHIP performance in the 2008 season, with a career 3.72 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP. Heady numbers for a veteran who could anchor our young pitching staff.
Brad Penny (SF)
At 32, Penny was subpar for Boston in the 2009 season, and has been very good for the Giants in 4 starts. He has a lifetime 4.17 ERA and 1.35 WHIP, and his inconsistency might make him affordable. He has had some very good seasons, and has shown recently that he might be able to replicate them.
Erik Bedard (SEA)
At 31, Bedard was supposed to have been another elite starter in the Seattle organization for the 2008-2009 seasons, but injuries (most recently a labrum tear) have limited him to just 15 starts both last season and 2009. With a career 3.71 ERA and 1.32 WHIP (and a couple of elite seasons to show for it), Bedard would be an awesome pickup, IF he can stay healthy. His price will probably reflect the last two years, bringing him down into the A's range.
Now, what do we do about offense?
First of all, it is worth noting that the A's have both Chris Carter and Brett Wallace primed for a 2010 appearance. Buster Olney in his ESPN insider article gives the money quote from BP on the first-baseman Carter:
After leading the minor leagues with 288 total bases in 2008, Carter upped the ante a bit this year with 310, in no small part because he raised his batting average from .259 to .329. The A's have been desperate for any kind of real production from the first-base position for years, and they'll take a long look at Carter in the spring to see whether he is ready to be the answer -- and whether they can live with his hands of stone at first base. -- Kevin Goldstein, Baseball Prospectus
As for Wallace, that depends on if Chavez is truly done with baseball. I won't believe he can play until he is actually out on the field, and it's late summer and he's still playing. Despite the fact that Chavez is actually signed through next season, all signs seem to point to Plan B: a healthy third baseman that is not a fill-in (love you, Kennedy!). At least for next season, Wallace could play there, if the A's don't have a better option other than starting his clock.
Carlos Delgado (NYM)
The 37 year old first baseman is a free agent coming off an injury-shortened season (hip surgery) and could play first /DH for the A's in the role that Giambi was supposed to fill in 2009. He's two years younger than Giambi, and is still considered a real power threat. He is only 27 homeruns away from 500, so it's likely he wants to continue his career.
Aubrey Huff (DET)
Huff is having the season that no free agent wants in his last contract year. His batting average is 60 points lower than his 2008 numbers, and he's hit half as many homeruns (from 32 to 15) in the same number of at-bats in 2009. Still, Huff's track record suggests that he's a streaky hitter, and could rebound with a solid, if not great season. At 33, he can easily fill the role of 1B/DH (and can also play some 3rd) and if all goes well, could fill a power spot in the lineup. With his 2009 numbers, Huff will likely be undervalued by teams seeking power, and he may be available for a team like the A's.
Vladimir Guerrero (LAA)
At 34, it's likely that Guerrero has finished his years with the Angels, and even more obvious that he needs an AL home, since he looks to turn into the classic DH. A true Angel, yes, and would probably never agree to come to Oakland, but he can hit.
Nick Johnson (FLA)
Labeled as "injury-prone" for the last few years, the 31-year-old Johnson has had a great year for Florida this season at first base. His injury history may keep his price down, but this year shows he can still play.
Adrian Beltre (SEA)
Although discounted a notch due to his injury history, the 30 year old Beltre is still a Boras client, so it might not be worth the hassle, but the thirty year old still might well have life left in his career, even after a dismal performance this year in Seattle. Beltre was fantastic in Los Angeles in 2004, but never really panned out for the Mariners over the last five years, and has been plagued with injuries during that time. He comes with risk, but also a strong (and fairly young) upside.
Jerry Hairston Jr
He can play all three infield positions, and can also spell in outfield as needed.
Chone Figgins (LAA)
Will probably be too high profile for the A's, but the 30-year-old has all of the running numbers that the A's (might) be playing for in their recent shift. Again, he's a true Angel, but the A's could do a lot worse at third base.
Hank Blalock (TEX)
The 29 year old first baseman's price will probably be one the A's can afford. He has hit 25 homeruns in his 120 games this season, but his average and OBP are way down. He only played 58 games in 2007 and 65 in 2008, and he is four years removed from his great 2003-5 seasons. The question will be a) can he stay healthy and b) can he replicate the mid-2000's instead of the late ones?
And finally, we come to two of our own. Would you welcome back either Jermaine Dye or Miguel Tejada back to the A's?
Jermaine Dye (CWS)
Although the A's appear to be loaded in the outfield, Dye could be the kind of player that the A's would make room for. Pricey, yes, but still a legitimate power threat, and coming off a down season (where he still hit 27 homeruns).
Miguel Tejada (HOU)
Although his power has dropped considerably over the last few years, this 34 36 year old can still play some baseball. He's hitting .313 on the 2009 campaign, and can still play a little shortstop.
Discuss.
0 recs | 218 comments
I use to have a romance with nostalgia....
but I think Jason has cured that. But I would be a little intrigued by signing Miggy if he’s willing to play some hot corner, especially if the A’s elect to keep Kennedy. We would have a little redundancy at short with Pennington, plus Miggy and Kennedy in tandem could hold down third when Chavez inevitably collapses. Then Wallace can step in at the ASB.
Lackey is going to end up in Boston. Which is fine with me. Chone on the other hand would be another intriguing possibility, albeit one that might give LB fits.
alox - September 30, 2009
Agree Alox
nostalgia has come and gone…only go after Miggy if they can get him on the cheap…
mills16 - September 30, 2009
Chavez ain't coming back.
And even if he does, it won’t be any longer than a handful of courtesy appearances. Make Plan B Plan A.
UncleLeo - September 30, 2009
I get nostalgic, too,..
…though I know it is almost never the same. Gotta say, though, that bringing Giambi back in ’09 bombed worse than even I had thought it might.
UncleLeo - September 30, 2009
NONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONO
NONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONO
NONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONO
NONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONO
NONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONO
NONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONO
NONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONO
NONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONO
NONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONO
NONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONO
NONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONO
NONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONO
NONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONO
NONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONO
NONONONONONONONONONONONONO. no.
Leopold Bloom - September 30, 2009
(ahem)
This.
Joey C. - September 30, 2009
When you're through
seizing LB, call me. We’ll talk.
alox - September 30, 2009
No alox!
That’s a bad alox!
(whacks alox on snout with rolled up newspaper)
Leopold Bloom - September 30, 2009
(I still love my sigline)
Leopold Bloom - September 30, 2009
I thought you would enjoy the prospect
of cheering for your favorite nemesis. You could personally take up the challenge of hanging some ridiculous AN nickname on him.
alox - September 30, 2009
Just pronouncing it Cho-ney would be sufficient.
He can be Cho-ney when he’s good and Shawn when he’s bad.
iglew - October 1, 2009
If you read that right-to-left
it looks like a concrete poem by John Lennon.
Nick - September 30, 2009
If you want nostalgia
look at your baseball cards. Have we ever signed a returning A’s star that didn’t go on to completely suck? Please don’t sign Tejada
Cust Rockwell - September 30, 2009
What?
I suspect you may be an infidel, especially in light of your avatar.
alox - September 30, 2009
Not an infidel
I love Miggy and don’t get me wrong. I’m just going back to the beginning of the franchise and can’t seem to find any success stories. Rudi in 82, Reggie in 87, Giambi in 09. We need to try and get Pennington broken in for the next big run.
Cust Rockwell - September 30, 2009
Rickey wants to know why you are forgetting Rickey
Rickey came back and helped you win a world series
easyraider - September 30, 2009
Like 3 times.
mikev - September 30, 2009
Apparently it doesn't count if the player was acquired in a trade?
PaulThomas - September 30, 2009
I said aging star
bringing him back in his prime after 5 years with the yankees isn’t the same as the other examples. Also you can’t really compare the greatest athletic of all time to the others.
Cust Rockwell - September 30, 2009
Rickey came back in 1998 at the age of 40 (i think, maybe late 30's)
and had a “decent” year. 60 SB but hit like .236.
micdog2001 - September 30, 2009
Sure you can find some minor exceptions
I’m just say the odds are against success, and why pay the extra money when we have the talent in house already.
By the way I want Rickey for 1st base coach. And I want him signed to a 1 day deal next year so he can play in 5 decades.
Cust Rockwell - September 30, 2009
I agree about playing the young guys
that is my vote for next year. I also agree about Rickey.
micdog2001 - September 30, 2009
I posted this around the time Giambi was signed this year
Former MVP’s that re-signed with Oakland the formatting is a little crappy, sorry.
micdog2001 - September 30, 2009
If you want nostalgia, let's talk Marco Scutaro
cityplANner - September 30, 2009
Resign Adam Kennedy on the Cheap
So we have an option at 3b until Wallace is ready. We can eat the poor D with the rest of our defense being stellar.
Give Cust another year, see if he figures it out/rebuilds some value. He is still one of our top two or three hitters, even in a down year. Don’t sign anyone else. As we’ve seen this summer, it helps to figure out what you have in your own organization before paying lots of money to older players.
Basically, free agent signings won’t help us compete next year, so why sign them?
librariansunite - September 30, 2009
Oh,
and I guess we can offer arbitration to Duke, as he is a Type B currently. Wouldn’t hurt if he was able to come back. We will probably need 1-2 pitchers, but we can wait until after Spring Training to go dumpster-diving.
librariansunite - September 30, 2009
Offering arbitration to Duke would be a mistake
He’d accept it without blinking an eye, and then about 4.5M would be given to a guy who probably won’t pitch.
mikev - September 30, 2009
Agree 100%.
He’s already been paid nicely for one full year of zero performance. Why would we want to do that again?
Personally, I am not in favor of signing him at all, at any level, for any amount of money, but if he could maybe be had for a minimum minor league contract I wouldn’t complain too much.
UncleLeo - September 30, 2009
Eh
Release him on March 15 (if he hasn’t pitched yet) and he’s only owed 1/6 of that.
PaulThomas - September 30, 2009
wow, i didn't know that.
Cool!
Jessse - September 30, 2009
I'd encourage anyone who's bored and has a few hours on their hands to read the MLB collective bargaining agreement
It’s surprising what you find in there.
PaulThomas - September 30, 2009
Specific Needs
We need to fill at least one of the two corner infield spots with a power bat. Since it seems we are done signing the over-the-hill type deeply discounted vets, our options may be limited. By trade or by FA we need to fill this need.
We should sign a veteran starter or two to plug into the mix for the open rotation spots. Preferably a guy with good character who can mentor the kids. Doug Davis type maybe.
I just cannot imagine going into next season with Wallace at 3rd and Carter/Barton at 1B. Too many questions.
bajablue - September 30, 2009
I don't think anyone is suggesting Wallace AND Carter
to start 2010. In September, yes, but in April, no. Carter needs a full season at AAA, and Wallace still is yet to totally tear AAA apart.
RyanFromBonas - September 30, 2009
Re: FA OF power bat = Chris Carter?
What if Daric Barton is for real, and he’s ready to be a .300 hitter with gap power? Wouldn’t Chris Carter then be our corner OF power bat of the future? No, not to start 2010, but hopefully by the end of it.
This is entirely possible – and probably our best-case scenario – but the tough thing about this is that we won’t have a full assessment of Barton until at least the 2010 ASB. We’ve seen him tear the cover off the ball in September before, but we need to see where he stands when given consistent AB’s over the course of a season. If he was too young in 2008, let’s hope he has it figured out at least to the tune of .280/.350/.440 in 2010.
RyanFromBonas - September 30, 2009
barton's not for real
unless you fix all his calendars to read “September” he cant be counted on.
PL78 - September 30, 2009
but Rajai is.
Dude, you’re awesome.
mikev - September 30, 2009
3 great months in a row
versus 3 great months over 3 years. take your pick.
PL78 - September 30, 2009
Or, we could use sensible concepts like "regression to the mean"
and “evaluating players’ minor league performance” and “age relative to level.”
Hm.
PaulThomas - September 30, 2009
Down goes Frazier! Down goes Frazier!
Joey C. - September 30, 2009
is this a seriority thing?
he’s simply ignoring my points about outliers and re-iterating nonsense to try and “win” an argument that doesnt even exist.
PL78 - September 30, 2009
I don't think you understand how badly PT is destroying you across three threads.
so yes it is serious.
You have given no evidence that any of your favorites are outliers or people you randomly don’t like shouldn’t be regressed to the mean.
So you are down for the count.
designatedforassignment - September 30, 2009
This is the kind of talk that nauseates me.
Why must AN be an arena in which you have to “destroy” anyone whose opinions aren’t as smart as yours?
PL78 has his way of looking things. You, PT, and the rest of the analysis-minded community have your way. Everyone who reads AN knows this, we’ve seen the arguments a million times, and most of us already agree that your way is better.
So what’s the point of declaring him wrong every time he opens his mouth? Give it a rest already.
iglew - October 1, 2009
One of the things I love about you.
You continue to try. Civility seems to have seen its last sunrise, or so it seems at times.
Only the naive and the young would think being labeled “wrong” is intolerable. Over the years I’ve noticed that she’s a steady companion, but at least she’s a far better friend than arrogance.
alox - October 1, 2009
yep
when cahill is stinking it up so bad that he gets sent down, i’ll gladly post an apology. i dont believe it will happen though, so we’ll see. would these other dudes who seemingly get off so hard on “destroying” me do the same? not likely. arrogance is the damn devil, youre right.
PL78 - October 2, 2009
whats funny
is that I love stats and analysis as much as anyone, I just dont believe its worth your time arguing that Cahill should be in the minors, of course he should be, he should have been all year. But we got a serviceable year out of him despite him somehow being “the worst pitcher in the game”. He’s NOT going back to the minors, so theres no argument.
Its also very strange to me that people are grouping an outlier like Cahill like he’s pitched more than the 238 IP he had in the minors before this year. He’s not a 30 year old bad at baseball type like Backe or Olson. Let him learn at the big league level already, we’ve started his arby clock so he’s not going back down.
@iglew I dont really focus on petty nerds who think they can predict the future. They can “destroy” an argument that doesnt exist all they want. Cahill will never be at AAA unless his real time ERA says he deserves to be.
PL78 - October 2, 2009
Carter will be our DH of the future
Which is fine, cause all our other prospects show real field ability
tafkasam - September 30, 2009
+1
Taj Adib - September 30, 2009
Glaus
He’s a guy I’d like to see. Glaus is not too old at 33 and just one year removed from a .856 OPS season – I don’t doubt he can be a better hitter than Kennedy was this year if he’s 100% fit. He would be a starting 3B or in a 3B/1B/DH musical chairs game with Barton, Cust and Wallace, if Wallace is MLB ready (which I personally think he is).
Manstein - September 30, 2009
If we're going to compete, we should make a run at Lackey and Beltre
If we aren’t, we shouldn’t bring in any of these guys, since we have players in need of regular playing time.
By no stretch of the imagination should we sign any of the 1B options on the list.
nevermoor - September 30, 2009
I disagree...
I think the young guys can compete in a weakened West next year.
Gaijin_Suketto - September 30, 2009
I'm confused about how your comment relates to mine.
nevermoor - September 30, 2009
Presumably, the argument is that we shouldn't sign anyone
because we can compete with those “players in need of regular playing time.”
LongLiveLangerhans - September 30, 2009
If you ignore the title of my post, that makes sense.
nevermoor - September 30, 2009
Would it be to much of an assumption...
that the beasts of the east are going to engage in a bidding war for Lackey’s services? I can’t see Boston standing pat in the pitching department, and it’s certain that the Yankee’s will take an interest if for no other purpose than to thwart Boston. I don’t think the A’s will be able to compete in that arena.
On the other hand, I think if we are indeed going to compete, then we must have offensive production from third. I don’t think Beltre is the answer.
alox - September 30, 2009
Who knows. We have less than $40 mil committed, so there's room to bid
As for Beltre, you’re wrong. We must have
offensiveproduction from third. Beltre is likely to provide that (and on a 1-year make-good type deal).nevermoor - September 30, 2009
Beltre will get an offer for more than one year
And he will take it. No one who doesn’t have to takes one-year contracts.
PaulThomas - September 30, 2009
I certainly wouldn't mind being proven
wrong. But what are we going to do with him while we wait for the carcass of Chavez to finally expire for good? If limited production is our goal while we await salvation in the form of Wallace, wouldn’t signing someone like Miggy make more sense? At least we would have a backup for SS.
alox - September 30, 2009
Not my point
My point is that we do not need OFFENSIVE production, we need OVERALL production.
nevermoor - September 30, 2009
Albert Pujols
JamesCaprio - September 30, 2009
He's pretty above average.
mikev - September 30, 2009
Babe Ruth.
What? It’s just as likely!
GET IT DONE BEANE
Boonee - September 30, 2009
He'd fit right in...
…on the DL.
UncleLeo - September 30, 2009
Ted Williams...
Well just his head.
JamesCaprio - September 30, 2009
I wonder where Bobby Crosby ends up next year?
If they don’t re-sign Marco Scutero, the BlueJays will need a shortstop. It’d amuse me if they continued to play A’s infield cast-offs.
bobnothing - September 30, 2009
It will amuse me more....
watching A’s pitchers mow him down with the slider low and away. Of course, having said that, his daddy will probably teach him how to hit during the off season.
alox - September 30, 2009
Insanity I say...
We made the mistake of ditching Scutaro and keeping crosby – you think the Blue Jays would do the same????
SheridanH - September 30, 2009
Eh
I’m pretty sure the only reason the A’s made that “mistake” was that Crosby was under contract and couldn’t be traded, and Scutaro didn’t have a guaranteed deal and could be…
PaulThomas - September 30, 2009
If I were a betting man I'd put money on that.
UncleLeo - September 30, 2009
I think crosby had little to do with it
it was a choice between Sutaro and Donnie Murphy really,
Future Ed - September 30, 2009
Probably going to be a Surf Dawg
or a Newark Bear. No disrespect to Rickey.
Cust Rockwell - September 30, 2009
I'll bet the Camden Riversharks could use a starting SS..
Nick - September 30, 2009
Not exactly related to the topic
But why do people think Rajai Davis is a sell-high candidate?
Not, to say, that I think he isn’t at his peak value. Rather, to ask, does anyone really think teams are out there biting at the chomp to get Rajai Davis? Really? He’s a useful little player and all, but I don’t think he’s fooling anybody.
walk off bunt - September 30, 2009
Why not?
He certainly fooled us for quite some time.
alox - September 30, 2009
I dunno
I just can’t envision some team with visions of contention looking at Davis and thinking “there’s our answer in center field this year.”
Unless Dayton Moore is running that team, I guess.
walk off bunt - September 30, 2009
well
Coco Crisp will be a free agent, so maybe Dayton will be looking for a CF.
colin - September 30, 2009
How about?
Davis for Alex Gordon?
drink - September 30, 2009
this
cityplANner - September 30, 2009
Biting at the chomp? No.
But, he’s probably at the highest he’ll ever be. It’s a relative statement, not absolute.
UncleLeo - September 30, 2009
yeah, it’s “chomping at the bit.”
AV - September 30, 2009
Yeah, that too.
Serious face palm… by ME!
UncleLeo - September 30, 2009
I assumed the chomp/bit reversal was intentional
iglew - September 30, 2009
Well, no, I started it
Mindfart.
walk off bunt - September 30, 2009
mindfart, face palm
in this mix-and-match thread, i’m expecting a mindpalm face fart any second now…
AV - September 30, 2009
LOL, I didn't even notice yours.
Maybe it was a subconscious thing on my part when I responded. I read yours right, and I proof-read mine right. Too funny.
UncleLeo - September 30, 2009
Actually, it's "champing at the bit"
worldblee - September 30, 2009
Champ is just an older spelling of chomp
As far as I can tell, they’re the same word. In the U.S., “champ” is old-fashioned and rarely seen except in the “at the bit” idiom; I’m told that it’s still used in Britain.
Completely unrelated to “champ” as short for “champion”, which is much newer.
iglew - October 1, 2009
Regarding Beltre
He was well worth his contract. And i’m pretty sure he’s only had injuries the past 2 seasons.
Cheezombie - September 30, 2009
My mistake ....
that SHOULD have read “dismal year in Seattle” not “signing”.
baseballgirl - September 30, 2009
I am big on the Huff idea....
I like the chance of getting someone like him coming off a horrible season…might be some value there and a guy we couldn’t afford if he had repeated 08. He is also a bit wacky which is always fun.
OaktownPower - September 30, 2009
Huff intrigues me, as well.
And I thought this little bit to be funny (you’ll never hear a “big-market” fan utter these words):
Haha, BBG you are a true saleswoman!
dtownmbrown - September 30, 2009
Huff intrigues me for the same reason that Cust does.
But do we have room for both?
iglew - September 30, 2009
Skeptical
Am I the only one who’s very skeptical on players who used to be power hitters, and now suddenly with proper drug testing, have fallen off dramatically.
SheridanH - September 30, 2009
No, you're not.
UncleLeo - September 30, 2009
I'll throw another name into the mix
How about bringing Harden back?
ozzman99 - September 30, 2009
Only if we can trade him again, and for something better than we got last time.
speckops - September 30, 2009
Judging by what the Cubs got, I'm pretty satisfied with that one
Joey C. - September 30, 2009
Ben Sheets wants to play in Texas
The Rangers actually did sign him at one point, didnt they? Then both parties realized he wouldnt be able to play in 09 so they decided to wait. Cant see him signing with any other team.
PL78 - September 30, 2009
Didn't pass the physical
ended up having surgery instead. The question is the Rangers’ budget. Maybe the Astros will do something crazy, but I don’t think so.
JetSam - September 30, 2009
Did you miss NSJ's Rajai market discussion, BBG?
The near-consensus there was that he really isn’t such a “sell-high” candidate. Yes, he probably had a career year, but that does not automatically equate to being overvalued by the rest of the league. A fairly thorough and open-minded examination of the market suggested that there probably wouldn’t be much to be gained from trading him.
iglew - September 30, 2009
I did!
linky? :-)
baseballgirl - September 30, 2009
'twas on the front page.
mikev - September 30, 2009
No wonder she missed it.
Who reads that crap?
Nico - September 30, 2009
got yer link right here
link
it got bumped up to the front page, so I’m surprised that you haven’t seen it
colin - September 30, 2009
Thanks!
KEEP RAJAI DAVIS NOW! :-D
baseballgirl - September 30, 2009
hey iglew
did you see my response to your comment on the 9/23/09 DLD. I was off AN for a couple days that week.
micdog2001 - September 30, 2009
Here's my rundown on those players listed:
Ben Sheets (MIL) Its a near-certainty he will be with the Rangers next year. I like him and think he’d be pretty good in Oakland, but those 2 parties have been dancing with each other for a while.
Brad Penny (SF). You look at his overall numbers and its tempting, the 3rd place finish in the cy 2 years ago etc, but he really cant pitch in the AL well at all. Why bother wasting money when a wily guy like Mazzaro, Tomko or even Randy Johnson would put up similar numbers at a fraction of the cost?
Erik Bedard (SEA) an elite pitcher when healthy, i expect teams with more money than oakland to offer him a deal. Would love to have him here though.
Carlos Delgado (NYM). I love the idea of Delgado as a 1B/DH in Oakland. The 1B market is flooded, he’s coming off injury, he reeks of Frank Thomas circa 2006. This economy is going to force him to take a 1/$5MM deal, and we can definitely offer him that. If Barton pulls his “I cant hit in months not starting with the letter S” then we have our ’10 1B. And if Carter forces the issue, and Delgado doesnt flop, then we throw him at DH and go back to
shudderCust in RF. But if Cust declines some more or Sweeney is playing out of his mind, then trade the overstock.Aubrey Huff (DET). The gamble here is that he goes back to his 08 form and then you win. He can sub at 3B horribly too. But the bottom line is: he’s a DH. We have a DH who’s having a better year than he is and is underperforming. Id rather stay away.
Vladimir Guerrero (LAA). A living legend. A living, declining, legend. Cust will have a better year than him with the bat next year.
Nick Johnson (FLA). He’s 3rd in MLB in OBP. That’s not going to come cheap and we have Barton, Carter and cheaper FA options. Beane has had a boner for him for a long time though….
Adrian Beltre (SEA). Its an interesting concept, the “1 year to rebuild value” player. It can work like Bobby Abreu or like Mike Piazza. The Twins absolutely love this guy though, I cant really see him signing anywhere else. He might be more expensive than AK too.
Chone Figgins (LAA) & Jerry Hairston Jr (NYY). Gotta love these multi-position types: Figgins, DeRosa, Hairston and Iwamura would make any team instantly the most versatile team in mlb. Unfortunately, aside from Figgins, these guys are more suited to the NL. I wouldnt hate the A’s for signing any of them, just because we always are kind of injured and need that guy who can play 1B, 2B, SS, CF etc in a pinch. The Yanks are in on Figgins, so you can almost count him out already.
Hank Blalock (TEX). This guy shouldnt have a job in mlb. Cust without the walks, no thanks. No care ever that he can play 3B. Id rather have AK honestly.
Jermaine Dye (CWS). Too old and you block Sweeney who’s 100x better defensively.
Miguel Tejada (HOU). I have a personal vendetta against players who GIDP too much, and he’s almost at 30 rally killers for the year. Absolutely not.
PL78 - September 30, 2009
Re Erik Bedard: take a look at the numbers
He has notoriously bad smile data. His caring points average is among the lowest in the league.
iglew - September 30, 2009
raj davis = one of the best smilers in the game
we dont need bedard and his expressionless, cold demeanor. we need more players with glowing faces!
PL78 - September 30, 2009
Chone Figgins
I think he’s a class act…but do we have any reason to believe he won’t get a huge multi-year contract and be totally out of our price range.
SheridanH - September 30, 2009
yeah, he's a saint.
Leopold Bloom - September 30, 2009
My next fanpost is all about
desmond DeChone. Just to make LB’s mind explode.
Now THAT is funny.
Future Ed - September 30, 2009
O/T Quick question
I have a friend who is on Facebook. I do not use it but a friend of hers got on her computer and deleted all her friends (400 of them) .
Is there anyone here familiar with Facebook and is there anyway she can retrieve the list.
I would think she is screwed but if someone can give a quick answer, it would be much appreciated.
Trainman - September 30, 2009
Contact customer service ASAP
Facebook may be able to retrieve…probably screwed though.
OaktownPower - September 30, 2009
You were a little unnecessarily generous with the word "friend" there.
Her friend, I mean.
UncleLeo - September 30, 2009
LOL
I don’t think she is her friend anymore.
Trainman - September 30, 2009
I'm sketchy on guys who only do well in the NL
Like Brad Penny. There is a difference in mentality/style (AL pitchers tend to paint corners more and thus AL teams are much more patient, where as NL is alot more fast ball- battle).
I have identified 3-4 needs. A veteran starter, a corner infielder, a utility infielder, corner outfielder. One of the hitter needs to be a middle of the lineup presence, PREFERABLY right handed. Otherwise I’d like to give Wallace a chance ti win a starting position.
-Erik Bedard would be great, division familiar. Any Idea how much he’d cost?
-I love the idea of Jerry Hairston. Again, how much?
-For corner infielder, Adrian Beltre would be GREAT. Seattle is a bad hitters park.
Other names: Joe Crede, Adam LaRoche (unlikely), Miguel Tejada (he would be comfortable here)
-If we can’t find a corner infielder w/ power, we should try to add that bat in outfield. I’d love to grab Xavier Nady (Nor cal guy), or Jermaine Dye
Also what about Coco Crisp? He’s off a nightmare season, so he could come for cheap.
tafkasam - September 30, 2009
Rajai Davis reminds me of Scott Podsednik
a nice player, he was 27 when he came on the scene, Rajai is 28. If the guy bats .275 with 50 SB next year and scores 85+ runs, whats wrong with that?
I’d like to see minimal trades involving the 40 man roster. (if you can trade from a strength, like outfield bullpen and get Adam Dunn, maybe for Hairston, Kilby) I’d do it.
The riskiest thing the A’s should do this off season is offer arbitration to Duke. I’m not certain of that either.
If the teams plays .500 or better ball in the first half next year, then add players, but I want at least another half season of what I’ve seen this half season. No more guess work.
Jessse - September 30, 2009
Even if Raj hits 270, has an obp around 340
He’s still steal you 50 bases in a full year.
it’s not like all his speed his going away next year, there’s no reason to trade him.
Walton711 - September 30, 2009
Steals aren't as valuable as you think they are
nevermoor - September 30, 2009
How can you tell how valuable Walton thinks they are?
If I say “Sweeney is a great player; he will hit 20 HRs next year”, I may or may not be completely wrong about that, but it really tells you nothing about how much I value HRs. Isn’t it the same thing here?
iglew - September 30, 2009
To be fair Walton did creat the syllogism
Speed is not likely to slump, therefore Rajai will steal 50 bases, therefore there is no reason to trade him.
Which inherently values steals equal to the difference between a .270/.340 hitter and having him be untouchable, which is a quantifiable value for observers.
designatedforassignment - September 30, 2009
I haven't used this for a while:
Joey C. - September 30, 2009
The only question is whose head is exploding?
designatedforassignment - September 30, 2009
I started getting a pounding headache at "syllogism"
Explosion complete by “quantifiable.”
Joey C. - September 30, 2009
ok, fine, there is not ‘no reason to trade him’, but peoples ‘one step forward, two steps back’ routine is just tired.
Also, speed doesn’t just relate to steals. Just look at the Angels and how the announcers ALWAYS talk about first to 3rd and 2nd to home. It may sound like a broken record, but it’s true and more importantly, it works.
Walton711 - September 30, 2009
except when you get thrown out all the time.
designatedforassignment - September 30, 2009
I need to dig up that Vlad Guerrero FAIL pic I made during last year's playoffs
PaulThomas - September 30, 2009
when does he get thrown out all the time?
oh yeah, when he was forced to steal pinch running when he started in one game every three weeks.
times have changed.
Walton711 - October 1, 2009
damn
Jessse - September 30, 2009
Seems to me like you're reading an awful lot into that comment.
iglew - October 1, 2009
A Rajai single is almost like a triple
Seems like he has a way of advancing around the bases on the smallest of opportunities. Outfielder’s bobble. Short sac fly. Voila, he’s scoring.
kotakoli - September 30, 2009
good point....agreed.
mrod - September 30, 2009
Nick Johnson plays for the Nationals, not Florida
I wouldn’t want to sign Bedard on anything but a one year <$5m type deal. With Penny I would be willing to go up to 2/8 with incentives, the same with Sheets.
I would sign Beltre but not for the 3/27 that grover thinks he will get. more like 1/10 or 2/15.
I would be willing to sign Tejada for up to 2/16 and play him either at SS or 3b depending on Wallace and Cardenas.
everybody else on this list I am not interested in.
designatedforassignment - September 30, 2009
Hate to rain on the parade
But Nick Johnson was traded to the Marlins this summer. So more accurately, “Nick Johnson had a good year playing for WAS/FLO this year”
And I think Nick Johnson would be a good candidate if they really don’t want to play Barton and/or Cust.
el generico - September 30, 2009
youre right... I looked it up when I made the statement and saw the nationals cap and didn't read
My bad.
designatedforassignment - September 30, 2009
several lashings for you dfa!
:)
mrod - September 30, 2009
Im fine with that...
I hate being wrong.
On the all time list of worst things on the planet.
Being Wrong
Losing
Laundry
Genital herpes
Being a prisoner of war
designatedforassignment - September 30, 2009
for some reason
I love laundry.
Folding is such a zen experience. It’s all warm and fluffy out of the drier. And when you’re done, you’ve created order out of chaos.
cityplANner - September 30, 2009
If you find folding so zen I invite you to my house where my clean laundry sits in a basket under my bed
and my dirty laundry is hidden behind the loveseat in my room or the closet.
designatedforassignment - October 1, 2009
I don't mind laundry
As chores go, it’s one of the easier ones. You just put the stuff in and then the machine does all the work. I like passive chores where most of the “work” is just waiting.
On the other hand, I hate to load the dishwasher, so go figure.
iglew - October 1, 2009
you can't just throw dishes in a dishwasher
at least if you want non-broken ones. Doing the dishes sucks.
micdog2001 - October 1, 2009
True, those are all very bad. .
I’d move to put these things above those:
Burning to death
a mealy apple
the tooth polish dentists use
mayo (and anyone who really likes it)
your child saying you never really loved them
deathby9 - October 1, 2009
This explains a lot.
iglew - October 1, 2009
So you'd rather get herpes than do laundry?
Fascinating.
muffinpryde - October 1, 2009
Jonhnson FA will cost more than cust arby amount
barton’s contract is irrelevant since he makes the minimum
not sure if johnson moving to dh full time will keep him healthy enough or not
Asfan4ever723 - September 30, 2009
trade market
Looks like the brewers might shop hardy/fielder and the dbacks with drew
Both teams are looking for pitching.
Asfan4ever723 - September 30, 2009
id trade so much for fielder
cahill, h-rod, simmons, cunningham, mazzaro & buck for him+hardy.
tell me why this is a bad idea and how far away is it from milw accepting it.
PL78 - September 30, 2009
That is a terrible idea
especially since we have plenty of good 1b prospects that you want to trade 6 former top 100 prospects for Fielder and Hardy.
designatedforassignment - September 30, 2009
agreed
micdog2001 - September 30, 2009
Not to mention...
… he’s got the “Gigantic Player With Power and Walks Skill Set Falls Off a Cliff After 30” syndrome written all over ’im.
Joey C. - September 30, 2009
I think he's 25
he’s hitting something like .295 as well
JetSam - September 30, 2009
Sure
I’m just saying I don’t want to throw 6 former top 100 prospects in for some a guy who might have even less shelf life than the average ballplayer. Even if he’s good for 5 years. As DFA said, we got us some good 1B prospects.
Joey C. - September 30, 2009
If he were to become an A
he probably would play somewhere else in 5 years. Its pretty meaningless. I get the argument against the high price.
JetSam - September 30, 2009
you just said
youd rather have “good propspects” than Prince Fielder.
ARE YOU INSANE?
PL78 - September 30, 2009
The line is back thataway
Also, you totally missed the point. I would trade almost any A’s prospect straight up for Prince Fielder. Six of ’em, on the other hand, is a different story.
nevermoor - September 30, 2009
Yeah, the only A's I wouldn't trade one-for-one for Fielder are Suzuki and Anderson
PaulThomas - September 30, 2009
Thank you, I was busy elsewhere
Joey C. - September 30, 2009
The likelyhood that Fielder out preforms six top 100 prospects is next to nothing.
designatedforassignment - September 30, 2009
Thank you, I was busy elsewhere
Joey C. - September 30, 2009
Six top prospects
In your enthusiasm to explain why Prince Fielder is not more valuable than six top prospects, I think you’re exaggerating the value of PL78’s offer. I don’t see six top prospects there. I see three top prospects, two formerly top prospects who are starting to look like busts, and one young non-prospect who is closer to replacement level than average.
That said, I agree PL78 is offering too much and Milwaukee would jump at the offer. But it’s not as far off as you guys are making it out to be.
iglew - October 1, 2009
"former top 100 prospect" lol
I think a former top 100 prospect pumped my gas last week. I take yoga classes from another top 100 prospect. Some former top 100 prospects are in the bigs, lots arent.
Its Prince Fielder. He guarantees you a 1000 OPS and is entering his prime years. He’s one of the top 5 hitters in baseball, and we always have a miserable hitting team. We can also drag out literally dead men whose flesh is rotting off their bones (Tomko, DiNardo, Eveland etc) and get them pitching well here. Its a price to pay, but we are so deep in SP prospects and have enough dough to sign another, its worth it. Play Prince at DH and all of a sudden we are outstanding team.
PL78 - September 30, 2009
Dude. Seriously. Stop it.
This comment is wrong on so many levels it’s like you’re trolling.
1. These are guys who are a lot more likely to suceed than players who are out of baseball.
2. Fielder has only had a four digit OPS once. He did it in the NL in a much easier park. He probably wouldn’t put up a .900 OPS in Oakland, let alone “guarantee” 1.000.
nevermoor - September 30, 2009
You are right but Miller field is not much easier to hit in according to park factors.
designatedforassignment - September 30, 2009
cliches live a long time
The NL Central is all bandboxes!
JetSam - October 1, 2009
Its Matt Holliday. He guarantees you a 1000 OPS and is entering his prime years. He’s one of the top 5 hitters in baseball, and we always have a miserable hitting team. We can also drag out literally dead men whose flesh is rotting off their bones (Tomko, DiNardo, Eveland etc) and get them pitching well here. Its a price to pay, but we are so deep in SP prospects and have enough dough to sign another, its worth it. Play Matt in LF and all of a sudden we are outstanding team.
danmerqury - September 30, 2009
lol
brian.only - September 30, 2009
Pwnage
designatedforassignment - September 30, 2009
Fielder=/=Holliday
JetSam - October 1, 2009
really? you sure... I thought it was just a disguise
I guess I should have done smilitics to figure that one out.
designatedforassignment - October 1, 2009
He guarantees nothing. He could get hit by a bus the day after the trade.
We are a miserable hitting team (I don’t think so but ill accept your assertion), but fielder would only provide 3 more wins than playing cust at DH assuming cust plays at 2008 levels next year. Also we have a ton of potential 1b/DH prospects who are excellent right now. Quite frankly it would be a terrible trade
designatedforassignment - September 30, 2009
I don't think you are getting everything out of that yoga class
Future Ed - September 30, 2009
He didn't mention what KIND of yoga it is
It’s actually a class on stretching the truth.
PaulThomas - September 30, 2009
Damn, PT. 2 for 2 on jokes today?
danmerqury - September 30, 2009
He's 2 for 2 on something
JetSam - October 1, 2009
Still waiting for introspection from DFA though.
:-)
iglew - October 1, 2009
But it would be for one year only, correct?
Seems like a lot from our side and not enough from the other.
Plus Carter, Barton?
brian.only - September 30, 2009
2, FWIW
However, I don’t think trading away half the potential rotation candidates for the next two years is really a particularly wise idea.
PaulThomas - September 30, 2009
its 2 and
in that time frame, Chavez’s contract expires, so he could be signed for 3-5 if needed.
PL78 - September 30, 2009
You really are a win now kind of guy aren't you?
Nothing wrong with that, I suppose. It’s just a formula for near constant disappointment unless you have the payroll of the yankees. And given their experience this decade, even if you have the payroll of the yankees.
I’d like to see your 2010-2011 roster if your trade goes through. I’m wondering how you manage to fill any part of the rotation outside of Braden and Anderson. To be honest, it looks like your number three is Tomko.
eastbayexpat - October 1, 2009
The only guys I would want on this list
would be Figgins, Dye, Tejada and I don’t necessarily think the A’s should sign any of them. Sheets and Bedard I’m a little iffey about, I doubt they would be healthy enough.
I think the A’s should just stick with young guys, re-sign Kennedy for 3B since Chavez won’t be healthy enough, and then try out a couple players excelling at AAA near mid-season. Oh, and ban Crosby from Oakland.
micdog2001 - September 30, 2009
Why would you want Dye or Kennedy since both are likely to cost a bundle and suck face next year.
designatedforassignment - September 30, 2009
mostly nostolga (spelling?)
I didn’t think Kennedy would cost that much. How much do you think he will ask/get on the FA market?
micdog2001 - September 30, 2009
I cant see him getting more than we threw away on Croz (5M).
brian.only - September 30, 2009
I would only be willing to pay league minimum which is less than he will get
I would say probably 2/6?
designatedforassignment - September 30, 2009
I dont see Kennedy requiring a ridiculous amount to come back next year.
He can play a few IF positions and hasn’t had a ‘suck face’ year in his career aside from being injured in 07’.
brian.only - September 30, 2009
He hasn't been league average in 4 years and his 07 was truely suck face since he was significantly worse than replacement
designatedforassignment - September 30, 2009
well
His OPS is better than Kurt Suzuki’s and Ryan Sweeney’s and he has never made more than $3.5 million in a season. If they A’s could sign him for $1-$2 million I would be fine with that.
I’m not saying he is better than Suzuki or Sweeney and I guess he could regress (if I’m using that correctly) and be much worse next year. But it is better than paying Crosby.
micdog2001 - September 30, 2009
Well one would hope that the A's will not be re-signing Crosby on similar terms this offseason
PaulThomas - September 30, 2009
yep
but with not having to pay Croz makes the prospect of paying AK47 not that bad.
micdog2001 - September 30, 2009
Exactly my thought as well, considering most of the A’s line-up is already ‘suck face’ or relatively unknown- it’d be a fair/good sign imho.
brian.only - September 30, 2009
and he still isn't a league average player like both Sweeney and Suzuki
There are a bunch of players I would rather spend $1-2m on than Kennedy.
designatedforassignment - September 30, 2009
fine
be that way ;-)
micdog2001 - September 30, 2009
Clarification regarding offering Duke arbitration.
A lot of people seem to think that offering Duchscherer arbitration this off-season is “really risky”. I’m no expert on these matters, but I think that from reading MLBtraderumors and Cot’s every now and then, I have gleaned a little insight into the arbitration process.
1) The idea that every player that is offered arbitration somehow increases their salary from the previous year automatically regardless of if they played well or not – or even played at all the previous year – is a somewhat inaccurate generalization. It’s true that most 3-6 service time players that are offered arbitration by the team they played for the previous year tend to see their salaries increase the next season – especially if they just got on the field most of the time the previous year. This stems from the fact that the MLB players union is very strong and adamant about providing increasing salaries to the vast majority of active players each year they take the field. Also, there is a rule that stipulates that once a team offers arbitration to a 3-6 year player, that team cannot pay that player less than 80% of their previous year’s salary. However, that rule ONLY applies to 3-6 year players and NOT impending free agents – like Duke. For free agents, team’s can offer any amount to the player if he accepts.
2) When teams offer arbitration to players and the players accept, the team has the right to cut that player at a later date (I think it has to be before the beginning of the season) and then only have to pay them a pro-rated portion of the arbitration settlement/award previously agreed to. This is what happened with the A’s and Rob Bowen this past Spring Training. A’s offered him arbitration, he accepted, was set to earn 500K or so over the full year, but was cut late during Spring Training and the A’s only ended up on the hook for about $86,000.
Thus, in Duke’s case: say the A’s offer Duke arbitration and he accepts arbitration, he’s not automatically awarded the $3.9 million he made this past season or even 80% of that. The A’s could offer him $1 million instead or $2 million or whatever, and he’ll either accept that figure or the team and Duke’s camp would go in front of an arbitration panel and they would decide Duke’s 2010 salary. Beyond that, even if the team loses the arbitration settlement and say, has to pay Duke $3 or $4 million, they could evaluate him during Spring Training and then, if he’s not fully healthy, they could cut him before the start of the season and only have to pay him a portion of that.
(Note: I could be wrong on some of the specifics here, so anybody that knows more about the process, feel free to chime-in, but I think I’m at least on the right track).
So, the moral of the story is: there is virtually no downside to offering Duke arbitration from the team’s perspective. There is some risk from Duchscherer’s perspective though, if he accepts arbitration. Since the arbitration-awarded salary is not-guaranteed, he could find himself on August 1st with only a fraction of the money he thought he was getting and without a job and (presumably) health insurance!
With all that being said, I could really see the A’s and Duke come to a more reasonable re-signing agreement that doesn’t directly involve arbitration. I could see the team offer him $1 million guaranteed with a few more million in performance incentives built into the contract. That really isn’t “risky” at all.
Taj Adib - September 30, 2009
Great write up all good reasons why offering Duke arb is basically a no brainer
designatedforassignment - September 30, 2009
I agree with your larger point...
… but I think it would be absolutely crazy to see a veteran player lose millions of dollars in arbitration relative to his previous year’s salary. I only did a cursory search and didn’t find anything— do you have any citable cases where something like that happened?
Joey C. - September 30, 2009
Not off the top of my head, no.
I think you’re right, that major cuts in salary via arbitration are very rare. However, the process is structured in a way in which it kind of goes both ways, especially in terms of underachieving/injured players: I doubt an arbitration panel would rule in Duchscherer’s favor if he asked for what he made this past year based on his extensive injury history. Plus, the team wins arbitration cases most of the time, because, by and large, they aren’t dumb, they have experience preparing for these cases and know what the arbitration panel is looking for in the hearing.
Overall, you’re right though. If the A’s and Duke go to arbitration, and the A’s low-ball him with like a $2 million figure and he asks for $3.5, it’s likely the panel might side with Duke. But then again, even if they did, the team could just cut him during ST and not have to pay him more than like 200-grand or whatever.
Taj Adib - September 30, 2009
Thoughts
Isn’t it the same rules though? Team submits one offer, player submits another. Arbitrator has to choose one. If the A’s lose the arbitration by offering a too-low salary, they have to pay whatever Duke asked for.
nevermoor - September 30, 2009
True, but the awarded salary is not guaranteed.
That’s the big catch. I mean, it’s in the A’s and Duke’s best interest to settle his salary away from an arbitration panel, with guaranteed sums of money included in the contract. Because, ultimately, the team holds the trump card by being able to just cut the player and save the money at any time before the start of the season.
Taj Adib - September 30, 2009
Sure, but it's guaranteed if you want Duke on your team
nevermoor - September 30, 2009
I do not see anything incorrect about this post
As far as I can tell, all of this is 100% accurate. The risk involved in offering arbitration is quite low.
I would add some specifics. Players are paid 30 days’ termination pay if they are released during the offseason or after spring starts but before March 15. If they are released between March 15 and the day before the season starts, the termination pay is 45 days. If they are on the opening-day roster, however, their annual salary becomes guaranteed.
PaulThomas - September 30, 2009
so we should release Bobby now, just to be safe?
Leopold Bloom - September 30, 2009
+1000000000000000000000
Taj Adib - September 30, 2009
Heck
let’s do it just to be mean.
eastcoasta'sfan - September 30, 2009
DO YOU SEE WHAT YOU GET, ED? DO YOU SEE WHAT YOU GET WHEN YOU BADMOUTH A FRANCHISE IN THE ASS?!
danmerqury - September 30, 2009
Do you see what happens when you feed Ed Crosby scrambled eggs?!
Leopold Bloom - September 30, 2009
Rec'd! Nice way to put it into perspective Taj!
I would love to see if Duke could make the comeback, once again, in an A’s uniform in 2010! Honestly, I see no reason why this scenario isn’t at least feasible…..the A’s made good on their end in 2009 and Duke was hurt, yet again. If he really is healthy in 2010 then maybe he can go out and prove that he is at least capable of “lasting a whole season healthy”…..Go A’s!
mrod - September 30, 2009
Don't sign/resign anyone except someone to play 3b.
Let everything else work itself out. I think we should be okay everywhere else. I am looking forward to next season.
Seb - September 30, 2009
I don't think the team is 'set', even for the long term, so...
…I still see them making some moves during the off-season with the long term in mind.
UncleLeo - September 30, 2009
So apparently the Marlins are going to non-tender Jeremy Hermida
My thoughts are, in order:
1. Damn they’re cheap,
2. Surprised they don’t think they could trade the guy,
3. I would like to sign him to play for the Oakland A’s, since he is young and has high upside and does not cost a draft pick, and he might resurrect his career with a change of scenery, and
4. Damn they’re cheap.
PaulThomas - September 30, 2009
I dunno
He’s never really showed anything (especially defensively) and I don’t think we need more outfielders.
nevermoor - September 30, 2009
I dunno, Hermida>Buck
and maybe Hermida>Hairston.
stranger things have happened
cityplANner - September 30, 2009
OK the goal is to give a shot at contention without killing the future
Priority 1. Get Yunel Escobar, JJ Hardy, or a yet unmentioned SS for all the trade chips we’re willing to part with. For simplicity Pennington is included in the deal. He’s fooled many into thinking he’s worth a shot. But his upside is that of a slick fielding guy who relies on walks and SBs on offense. He’s putting up an ISO higher than anything he’s done since rookie ball. ZiPS predicts a .285 wOBA the rest of the season (which is likely what we’re looking at in his sophomore campaign). Add in Desme, Donaldson, Powell, Simmons, Davis, Hairston, Wuertz, Buck or other trade chips to complete the deal. All 8 of those names could draw some level of interest and because of that are my top trade chips. If we’re not able to pry either Yunel, Hardy, or another SS loose, I’m in trouble. I end up considering Miggy but I also try to pick up as many former prospect SSs as possible. The first guy I look at is Brandon Wood. Past that, I go crazy and either sign a good glove 2b (Polanco/Hudson) and plug them into SS or try Cardenas there. If you haven’t figured yet, I don’t like Pennington on any A’s playoff squad.
Priority 2. Inquire about Alex Gordon. I doubt even Dayton Moore will consider him available for any combination of the 8 names above (especially as the most attractive are likely to be taken in the previous trade), but Gordon has underachieved just enough that KC might suffer SNTS and look at a FA or trade and replace him. If they seriously consider moving him, I might consider parting with Wallace for Gordon. The Royals would need to add a bit more to the deal, and I’d have to run through a lot of calculations (mainly about Wallace’s D) but I might just do it. If Gordon’s not available I look at Beltre’s price tag. If the bidding on Beltre gets too high, I’m again up a creek. I consider Tejada. What I don’t do is sign Kennedy. I’m real happy AK did well but he’s precisely the type of option that has no upside. He’ll likely perform great as a replacement if one of your infielders is out on the DL (remember D’Angelo Jiminez? That’s when AK could have been great), but there’s no way Kennedy performs enough to lift the A’s to the playoffs. I’d rather the A’s go young and throw Wallace into the fire. But I’m against that unless there are no more options.
Priority 3. Find 2 big hitters for the 1b/OF/DH. The A’s have 3 solid options in CF. Unfortunately none is great for COF. Sweeney is the only one of Raj, Ryan, and Hairston who I can foresee getting to 3.5 WAR next year (and even that’s uncertain). However all could get to 1.5 WAR. The absolute best thing to do would be to consolidate and trade two of them to get one great LF with a couple years of control. In a perfect world that’s a guy like Shin Soo Choo (well in a perfect world, it would be a guy like Holliday, in a semi-realistic perfect world it’s Choo). However, I don’t see that happening. That leaves two options: get a guy who’s not a big hitter yet or get a couple of guys who combined could be a big hitter. Now the only suggestion I have for the prospect that the A’s could acquire with their trade pieces is Matt Gamel. Cameron is a FA, leaving the Brewers with a hole in CF. The Brewers’ C is Jason Kendall. Need I say more? Of the A’s trade pieces I’ve mentioned before, two are catchers and two are CFers.
I’ve already mentioned three trade ideas: SS, Gordon, and Gamel. If the A’s don’t have the pieces to get all three done, they’ll need to get some help from the FA market. One of the easiest ways to get a lot of production for little cost is a platoon. Luckily, the A’s already have half of one in Scott Hairston. Hairston crushes lefties. Who can the A’s get as the second half of the platoon? How about Eric Hinske? Strangely, Hinske does not have much of a split this year, but in years previous Hinske has shown that he can hit righties at a very good clip. Better yet, Hinske can be a good backup at 1b, 3b, RF, and LF. Plus he’s only 32 (not too old for a FA) and likely to be cheap.
Without looking, whom did Beyond the Boxscore name the 1st and 5th most valuable Rfers of 2008? Here’s a hint: they’re both FAs. Still don’t know? Brian Giles and Randy Winn. Both have had bad years (Giles a terrible one). Both could be available cheapish. I wouldn’t sign either for more than Giambi signed for, but G’s contract seems reasonable to both. Mike Cameron could be an interesting pickup as well.
That leaves 1b and DH. Barton and Cust are the incumbents and both deserve a shot. However, getting a guy like Huff or Vlad (if he’s cheap) wouldn’t be that bad an idea. It may seem like that’s too many players for too few positions, but remember what happened with Jay Payton. The players who perform and stay healthy will find playing time.
Priority 4. Get a number two starter . A rotation with Cahill as the 4 starter looks a lot better than one with him as the 3. There’s a bunch of aces who get injured a lot on the market: Harden, Bedard, Duke, Escobar, Hudson, Penny, even Prior. Sign the one that’s the cheapest. Investigate Doug Davis and Randy Johnson. Maybe sniff at Chapman if you’re feeling frisky.
No one can argue that 2010 should be about two things: trying to win a World Series and building to win future World Series. Argue about how much each objective should play into your moves, but those are the goals. I think the moves I suggested give the A’s an outside shot at competing next year and still leave the A’s in good position to call up Carter, Wallace and others if it’s decided the A’s can’t compete.
vignette17 - September 30, 2009
I really like your Hinske option
that’s some outside the box thinking, in that I haven’t seen his name bounced around AN at all. What would you think of bringing in Nady?
cityplANner - September 30, 2009
Brewers have a couple top prospect catchers in the upper level of the org as well as decent fill-ins in the meanwhile. They’ve got some nice CF prospects that are a year or so away as well as possible fill-ins in the meanwhile. For whatever reason Melvin doesn’t like to use young guys other than top prospects though.
Gamel fills an organizational shortage for left handed hitting. I don’t know if it was by fashionable sites, but some rated him as the top hitter in the minors after last year. Your trade proposal is a C and CF prospect? At least it doesn’t include Dana Eveland again.
And later are you suggesting Doug Davis as the #2 starter?
JetSam - October 1, 2009
Anyone who rated Mat Gamel as the top hitter in the minors after last year should be put on your "ignore" list of prospect sites
I mean, that’s just ridiculous. He probably wasn’t in the top 20.
PaulThomas - October 1, 2009
I don't see much of this happening
I really don’t think the A’s will be this active in the offseason. I also don’t quite understand why you are willling to bail on 2 of our outfielders but not on Barton or Cust. Our whole team is at that good but not great level. We can either run with what we have and hope that a few guys set themsevels apart and then promote from the minors to replace those that don’t, or we can consolidate via trades.
I do like the trade idea but trading 2 so-so players for a better player is hard to do. I know because I try to do it in fantasy baseball every year.
Seriously though, I think Escobar and Hardy will have too high a price given that they will cost us more $ and their upside is limited. To give a top prospect in addtion just seems like too much.
Gordon would be good to have, but I wouldn’t trade Wallace for him. They aren’t that far apart in development given Gordon’s struggles and Wallace will be cheaper for longer. If we can get Gordon for someone lower in our farm system then I go for it.
I also get the sense that the Brewers still value Gamel pretty high, but maybe I am wrong. I am wary of his defense but he should hit.
I am all for getting a SP… I think thats where our extra money needs to go. Duke seems likely. Hudson would be nice. Not real keen on the rest of those names given the risk/reward.
DrDoom - October 1, 2009
DO NOT SIGN ERIK BEDARD!
I’ve been living in Seattle for 4 years now and Erik Bedard is the biggest sissy to ever play the game.
Hes hated in the clubhouse and flat out refuses to throw more than 90 pitches in a game. Ever.
Do not sign Bedard. Please, I’m begging you Oakland.
jwnewman - September 30, 2009
I can't say anything about the feelings in the clubhouse,
But he’s only had three starts this year where he pitched less than 90 pitches. Out of 15. In his great 2007 year, he had two starts where he pitched less than 90. Out of 28. Hell, that year had a 120-pitch game.
danmerqury - September 30, 2009
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