Athletics Nation

No Sowers power today

you're quick Flash

hey you think I could have a few of those?

sirbed - September 19, 2009 reply

Take all you want

emperor nobody - September 19, 2009 reply

cool, thanks

sirbed - September 19, 2009 reply

Winz!

I still think 2010 will be a break out year for Gio, he can do this.

Daniel777 - September 19, 2009 reply

As long as he works in the offseason

I remember him coming into Spring Training 2009 all out of shape.

muffinpryde - September 19, 2009 reply

You mean with a "mike v sized ass"?

Nico - September 19, 2009 reply

Hi.

mikev - September 20, 2009 reply

He's definitely got the stuff

But wildness and some combination of bad luck or not being focused can lead to his downfall at times. Then we get games where he shuts the other team out with 8 K’s which tells us that he can be a really good pitcher.

Helloooo 1st - September 19, 2009 reply

he probably needs at least three pitches that he can command to succeed at starting

for relieving, two are sufficient

OaklandSi - September 19, 2009 reply

I'm not convinced he wouldn't be better out of the pen.

DDroney - September 19, 2009 reply

so lemme get this straight

May-September romances end in September, so you’re supposed to what, have a short 3-week fling while you’re waiting for October? Someone needs to write some sort of Serial Monogamy for Dummies manual for this stuff.

I started growing a beard about a week ago and I ain’t shaving until we lose. So I figure by the time next spring rolls (mmm, spring rolls :drool:) around and we’re going for #21 to break the consecutive win streak record, I will be ready to star in the Dada version of The Life and Times of Grizzly Adams. Or maybe I’ll play Billy Gibbons in the ZZ Top Story, just need one of those Gibson Custom Pearly Gates guitars and I’m in.

You'll be a sharp dressed man

sirbed - September 19, 2009 reply

Ah hah hah hah hah

Helloooo 1st - September 19, 2009 reply

Was the "sell high" snark possibly directed to those members of the community...

who might be pushing to do exactly that with Prince Rajai this off-season?

OptimistPrime - September 19, 2009 reply

Nico, snarky?

I know....what was I thinking...

No, there was no intended snark

“Sell high” is a pretty common baseball term.

Nico - September 19, 2009 reply

Fair enough.

I wished it were that way, though. I have a hard time believing that it’s a great idea to automatically look to trade Rajai and “sell high” on him right now or anytime soon just because he’s performing well. Sure, the BABIP is not sustainable and he’s a little too old to really “build around” but what the heck is another team going to give up for someone of his caliber? A B-level pitching prospect in Double-A? An A-minus pitching prospect in the Rookie League? Are those “pieces” really worth getting rid of someone who just might be a solid catalyst for an interesting, potentially-borderline-competitive 2010 team?

Asfan4ever723 - September 19, 2009 reply

Good lord

If someone were willing to give up an A- pitcher in any level of the minors I would jump at that deal.

Helloooo 1st - September 19, 2009 reply

for rajai? unlikely

Rajai reminds me of scutaro. His value might be higher to the A’s, than other teams. If they trade rajai and wanted pitching in return maybe they’d get like an equivalent prospect like a mortensen, godfrey, banwart type.

I agree here. He does seem more important to the A's than other teams.

I love Scutaro as much as the next A’s fan, but I think it’s important to note that most of us wouldn’t really be having major regrets if Scutaro hadn’t suddenly developed a Barry Bonds-like eye and plate discipline this year. A OPS+ of 111 fueled by 89 BB’s with a slugging percentage barely north of .400 for the first time in his career screams for a huge regression next year.

I bet that you are right Taj

I doubt that the A’s can find a sucker GM to give up someone really valuable for Davis. He’s been someone for the team to rally around. His best value is to the A’s. I hope he stays( unless a sucker does show up).

IM4Oakgal - September 19, 2009 reply

That kind of thinking...

…will always mean that the A’s won’t compete. You can’t keep trading the present for the future, over and over and over again. There are too many top prospects in places like the rookie league that don’t pan out to give up the potential to be a contender or near-contender in 2010, particularly when dealing with a catalyst like Rajai Davis.

Otherwise, I wait until there’s a more appropriate time, during the season if the A’s aren’t competitive, or next off-season when there’s an outfield glut. If someone wants to offer an A- prospect and Rajai’s place is filled here in Oakland, then I think it’s a decent idea. But now - no way. As PT pointed out, maybe you trade Davis for a SS or 3B top prospect who’ll play in 2010. Maybe.

richwol1 - September 19, 2009 reply

We just differ

On believing that Rajai will keep up his current offensive prowess. I’m of the belief that he won’t sniff these numbers again and that if someone offers an A- prospect you take it.

Helloooo 1st - September 20, 2009 reply

"Sell high" was an AN meme long before Rajai came along.

iglew - September 19, 2009 reply

to sell high, you have to be high

and to be honest, the only times the A’s have been high involved illegal narcotics this year.

MobiusKlein - September 19, 2009 reply

(this year that is)

MobiusKlein - September 19, 2009 reply

Did Travis get to play?

iglew - September 19, 2009 reply

hafner?

yes.

Asfan4ever723 - September 19, 2009 reply

geren

hitting hairston/nomar/crosby trio in the middle order worked out today, but playing nomar/crosby is irrelevant to this team’s plans

why use ziegler/wuertz w/ a 4 -5 run lead, they recalled 5 or 6 relievers over the past month + to avoid overuse in situations. If they are worried about durability/pitch counts for SPs, it should be the same with the relievers. Hrod couldve been used in this “low pressure” situation

carson- Even if this is temporary filler as reward for a good AAA season, they need to evaluate buck, cunningham, patterson, etc just as they are doing w/ barton, pennington, rajai, sweeney in recent weeks. I would say the same for everidge who should be up here, filling that nomar role vs lefties.

A's 2009 season issues in a nutshell...

but contrary to the game plan a victory resulted here.

BleedGreen - September 19, 2009 reply

I wasn't at the game so didn't get to see Gio firsthand

but I wish Geren had left him in there. This is the perfect time for him to learn to work through some issues. And I agree, I hate seeing Weurtz pitching in low-pressure situations.

faninphilly - September 19, 2009 reply

Yeah, this game was perfect for him to keep playing

six run lead, let him go.

5 walks in 3 innings.

That’s plenty of a chance. The guy is too inconsistent, and while I won’t mind him being penciled in for a rotation spot in 2010, I also wouldn’t mind him making the transition to long relief.

Great stuff. No poise. I’d rather the A’s sign a middling veteran SP instead, honestly.

Gio is basically a middling veteran SP right now, for a fraction of the cost, and with the potential to develop into something really good if he ever cuts down the walks. If we’re going to be signing a veteran SP next year, it really shouldn’t be to displace Gio from the rotation.

Seriously?

I guess our definitions of middling differ quite a bit.

The guy has a WHIP of 1.81. This is significantly more than league average, which is what I’m arguing for.

He really needs more than two pitches, and a better psychological facet. One of these might develop. Both is a very dicey proposition.

Yes, the WHIP is ugly. But it’s been somewhat inflated by a .374 BABIP. Obviously that is in part because he’s been all too hittable, but my guess is that even bottom-of-the-barrel pitchers don’t have a BABIP north of .350 over the course of 80 IP. Looking at WAR, he’s been worth ~0.67 WAR in 81.2 IP. Project that out to 200 IP (a full season) and he’s worth around 1.7 WAR, which is slightly below major league average, as I recall. In other words, a middling veteran SP is likely to give the A’s about the same level of production next year for about >10 times the cost.

A lot of us have noted that he needs something other than just his fastball and his curveball. I think the psychological aspect of his game will come with time, and probably goes hand-in-hand with having enough confidence to trust that whatever third pitch he develops (e.g. his change) won’t get slammed every time he tosses it.

Sorry, he’s pitched 82.2 IP, not that really affects much.

So he's not quite as terrible as his WHIP implies.

I’ll concede that. In any event he still has a long way to go to even approach league average, regardless of what one wishes to assume about how he’ll progress over the winter.

He’s benefited plenty from a very solid bullpen as well. And ultimately, even if his BABIP are higher than the norm, he has allowed hitters to reach base at a .389 clip or something. Even if some hitters are getting lucky against Gonzalez, that leaves an incredible amount of walks to account for.

In other words, I don’t believe that Gio’s atrocious statistics represent an anomaly as much as they do the low part of his potential. I guess he could develop into a league average hurler and I hope he does.

He’s pretty much already a league average hurler. He’s just league average in a different way than most people are average, e.g. more K’s and BB’s than league average.

Also

obp
slg
ops
home runs (15 in 80 or so innings)

It isn’t just statistical happenstance that makes Gio look bad, and it isn’t a case of small sample size.

It’s great that you are optimistic about him turning it around, but I have far less faith in Gio.

I would trade half of those strike outs for a stat that actually meant something. He has the third worst OOBP among pitchers with 80 innings or more.

Gio will get another chance, that’s not up for debate. And altogether, I can accept his presence in the back of the rotation while Outman/Braden/Duke recover.

I’d love for his trajectory to be Randy Johnson-esque, but I think his only hope as a starter is to reinvent himself, and stop relying on strikeouts. He may find that this leads to a reduction in walks and extra base hits which, combined with the unflappability of a true veteran, will result in a polished and dependable major league starting pitcher.

The above scenario is not likely, especially if he lacks the psychological capability to reinvent himself (likely).

We can afford a known-quantity type SP going forward, and I’d rather have that type of guy every 5th game than Gio’s Grab Bag.

But like I said, unless he gets traded he will get another crack at the rotation and a chance to make me look like a Debbie Downer. Awesome.

For the record, e.g. != i.e., so yes, I could’ve listed a bunch of other stats as you did. If you list OBP and SLG, as ststas where he’s among the league leaders (and not at the right end of the leaderboard), it’s funny to list OPS as well, given that it’s simply OBP + SLG. Not an attack on you at all, just an amusing note to me.

I think we’d all trade 3 K/9 for 2 BB/9 (not that we can), because it would bring his walk rate down to the acceptable range. Randy Johnson is always the diamond in the rough, strike the mother lode comparison for every pitcher who is wild but still K’s 1/IP (especially lefties). Based on that alone, I’d rather continue to give him chances at the majors league level than go after a known, league average quantity. I’m fairly convinced that at this point, Gio is just a shade under average at the MLB level. Spending money on a veteran SP also means that that money won’t be spent elsewhere to upgrade other positions of need, like half the infield.

Umm

Your entire first paragraph is borderline condescending. None of that actually needed clarification. An amusing note to yourself is something you keep to yourself.

The A’s can probably afford suitable infielders without breaking the bank on an actual starting pitcher. I don’t think they’ll do it, but that’s just fine also.

We’ll just have to wait and see.

It's also inflated by a pretty high walk rate

Among the main A’s starters this year it goes like this (per 9 innings, today’s start factored in):

Gonzalez: 5.7
Mazzarro: 3.8
Cahill: 3.6
Outman: 3.3
Braden: 2.8
Anderson: 2.4

In Gio’s favor, he also has the best strikeout rate:

Gonzalez: 9.6
Anderson: 7.6
Outman: 7.1
Mazzarro: 5.8
Braden: 5.3
Cahill: 4.7

He’s got stuff, though like you note he needs one or two more pitches he can throw with confidence. He needs the consistency.

So he needs:

control
additional mastery of pitches
a vastly improved mental/emotional skill set

Thus far he’s gotten by on pure stuff, nothing wrong with giving such a guy a fair shake. But over 120 innings he hasn’t progressed much, if at all.

With those three major areas of improvement in mind, I think its unlikely that he reaches a plateau of competence as a starter. Giving him the benefit of the doubt, maybe he’ll conquer two of the three demons.

His control isn’t just bad. It’s obscene.

A fastball and a curve

will not get it done as a starter.

He may end up in the pen.

Needs to work on his change for 2010

Trainman - September 20, 2009 reply

The only way Gio will get the poise he requires

is to keep wheeling him out there to learn, learn and learn some more.
Just giving up on him as a starter after 2 part-seasons is terrible decision making.

Daniel777 - September 19, 2009 reply

So then he's a confident and poised starter.

With two reliable pitches. I don’t think he can overcome enough of his challenges to become a solid starter.

I believe he can overcome enough of them to be a very valuable middle reliever or swing man.

I think the same thing about Mazarro. Call me conservative on pitching prospects-Joe Slusarski broke my heart once and I never got over it.

There is no such thing as a very valuable middle reliever or swing man

That’s like saying “a very wet desert”.

PaulThomas - September 20, 2009 reply

exceptions to prove the rule

some relievers are more valuable than others and that must make 1 or 2 of them very valuable.

and LA… thanks to imported water: a very wet desert.

AV - September 20, 2009 reply

Even deserts have an oasis or two.

mikev - September 20, 2009 reply

what is the worst that could happen

the A’s lose the game? SO what. today was a day Gio should have gotten through the bad inning.

But that's the whole issue.

He lacks the mental makeup to do so, in my opinion. Leaving him in there only worsens his mind state, and he’s proven this over and over this season. I don’t think he’s progressed one iota in the last season plus.

Are we talking about the same pitcher? I’m just curious what makes you think he’s not gotten better at all. Compared to ‘08, this year his K rate is up, his BB rate is down, obviously as a result his K/BB rate is far better, the HR/9 is better (by almost a full HR). As far as I can tell, he’s a vastly improved pitcher this year.

As far as I can tell, normalizing his BABIP to .290 would take away ~18 or so hits, leaving his WHIP at 1.58, still a very ugly number. His HR/FB% is also slightly higher than league average (~14.3%) Normalizing both of those would make a lot of his stats look quite a bit better.

2009 has not been a great year for him by any means, but he has certainly improved over the 2008 version.

I still see the same pitcher.

While I understand that normalizing those numbers would help him out, it’s a rather,um, pointless point.

My whole argument is that he is not capable of performing statistically at this level, and regardless of whether individual stats have shown improvement, Gio still belongs in the “bad” class of pitchers. His progress would have to be positively revolutionary for him to be worthwhile, IMHO. Yeah, he’s pretty young. On the other hand, failure for pitching prospects is the rule, not the exception.

We’ll just have to wait and see.

Again: what (quantifiable) things are the same as before?

Really?

I just explained it. None of his improvements point to a meaningful change in his approach to the game or his level of success. His specific rates have changed, but not so much that he’s a significantly better pitcher.

I’m not arguing for a purely quantitative analysis, but there is no getting around the fact that Gio Gonzalez sucks, statistically speaking. There may be faith on your part that he can overcome all of his difficulties and continue to improve at the same rate or greater (and not level off), but I don’t share it. What it comes down to is that Gio Gonzalez hasn’t actually been consistently successful yet. I take this as evidence that he never will be. To me that makes sense.

Some people have faith in Ryan Sweeney too based on his potential and possible statistical progression, but its all speculation until he breaks out (or does not). For now he hasn’t, so it’s kind of bizarre to assume that he will. Not an attack on you at all. Just an observation on my part.

Anyhow, we’ll see next year.

Agree to the we’ll see next year part. I’m hoping that he does some work in the offseason to work on at least a third pitch.

yesssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssss

im so Fing drukn
b-schooll is awesome

oakinboston - September 19, 2009 reply

Amazing what winning does...

A couple of months ago, I would’ve said to trade in virtually the entire team and try again. Now I’m thinking: Well, maybe if Beane re-signs Orlando Cabrera for insurance at third and short (and Adam Kennedy if Eric Chavez is forced to retire before the season), and maybe if he re-signs Brett Tomko as a back of the rotation veteran, finds a good back-up catcher and makes Landon Powell the regular DH, this team could be going places in 2010. (Yes, that means either trading or non-tendering Jack Cust).

richwol1 - September 19, 2009 reply

Buck can still draw a crowd

JLaff - September 19, 2009 reply

Aw. Trav.

whiteshoes40 - September 20, 2009 reply

takes a great artist to draw a crowd with a sharpie…

AV - September 20, 2009 reply

Pennington

btw, is it just me or is pennington looking like a player?
or is he pulling september ’07 barton?

tas7b - September 19, 2009 reply

September ‘07 Barton had had a more impressive (if streaky) minor league career than ’09 Pennington has. I like what Cliff’s doing, but I don’t expect a repeat in aught-ten.

DDroney - September 19, 2009 reply

But Pennington plays a defensive position

The question isn’t whether he can lead the A’s in SLG next season, or OPS 800+. The question is whether he can hit well enough to be a reasonably good player given his defensive contributions. His performance over the first couple months of his first real chance in the majors gives me some hope that he can hold his own offensively next season.

Nick - September 20, 2009 reply

Congrats to Midland, who won the Texas League title

Is that like a free throw contest?

where the team with the most bloop hits wins?