is that he's a drag queen. No, I'm kidding. I just said that because what I love about being an AN writer is that I can start a piece by surprising the reader with a complete non-sequitor before getting on to the business at hand. How many times do you think Susan Slusser, or Mychael Urban, or AP Writer has secretly wanted to throw something completely wacky out there, just for a change of pace, and then has come to his, her, or its senses and decided it would be wiser just to recite the attendance? I love my job. Anyway...
Watching Rajai Davis all year, I wanted to go back to his early season performance and add one observation on what was going wrong before -- compared to this stretch of pure brilliance, in which he is hitting, running, and fielding like an All-Star. One reason many fans, myself included, were down on Rajai in April and May is that his batting and getting on base aside, Davis was also not doing other things well: For example he made several blunders in CF, from dropping balls on the run to juggling caroms while runners advanced key bases. What was going on here?
What I want to point out is that these mistakes were almost always in the "frantically trying to do too much" category, and almost always came in situations where "giving 110%" -- and in this case I mean spazzing out instead of being calm -- would backfire. Just as it can, in some situations, be problematic for Sweeney to calmly field a carom, tap the glove, uncork, and throw, on plays when microseconds matter, it is equally problematic to play a carom while the winning run is trying to score from first by going "ZOMG, IHAVETOGETTHEBALLASQUICKLYASPOSSIBLEANDGETIT BACKTOTHEINFIELDORWE'REGONNALOSE! Dang, now I've kicked the ball!!!!!!" I remember 3-4 times, over a short stretch, where Davis tried to do too much and as a result made things far worse, once running down a fly ball only to drop it with runners on base, once kicking around a carom on a pivotal sequence, once getting picked off, and so on.
Now that he is getting regular playing time, has more leeway to make a mistake here or there without it being magnified, and is playing with more confidence -- and I think as a result, more calm -- Rajai Davis is playing far better. He won't, of course, be able to sustain the .333 batting average, or the 1.000 OPS, he has put up during this reign of terror. The question is: If he can calm down and just play with confidence, to what level can he regress?
This brings me to my next point, which is that if Rajai Davis can put up a .340 OBP he's a good starting OFer. Speed may not go into slumps and it may create spark, energy, and excitement that is infectious -- and put in the group that believes all this absolutely happens and is extremely real and valuable -- but speed does have to get on base in order to help an offense. The batting average is, to me, unimportant -- Rajai, whether he walks or hits, needs to get on base, period. The slugging percentage is pretty unimportant too, because Rajai's "doubles" and "triples" will come from his feet; when he's on 1B he can slug his way to 2B in a different way than Landon Powell can, get himself around to score all by himself in a different way than Jack Cust can.
For Rajai, his offensive value is really tied into his ability to get on base, and if he can get on base about 34% of the time or more, with his baserunning speed, his base-stealing ability, his ability to disrupt and distract, and his ability to play a solid defensive CF, he's helping you, period.
Is Rajai a late bloomer -- a guy who has finally calmed down and harnessed his ability -- or is he a one-month wonder whose deal with the devil to channel Rickey for 30-days is about to expire? I am pretty sure the guy can run down fly balls just like he's been doing lately -- that what he did in April and May was the outlier -- and that as a baserunner he will do you far more good than harm. The answer to the question lies, IMO, in the answer to the singular question: When Rajai regresses to the production he can maintain, can he get on base 34% of the time?
0 recs | 60 comments
I love me some RAJAI
(July and august versions)
robbo650 - August 8, 2009
Well, we have nothing to lose by trying to find out how good he is.
Though he was a bit old for each level, his minor league numbers are really pretty good. .305/.375/.407 is plenty from a centerfielder that can wreak havoc on the basepaths; consistenly, he drew walks and didn’t strike out in the minors.
My only real problem with this plan is Hairston’s bat plays so well in center. A league-average bat in left, and Hairston in center, would be better.
jeepers - August 8, 2009
I don't understand this.
What does it mean that Hairston’s bat “plays so well in center”.
Either Rajai is a better defensive CF than Hairston or he isn’t. If he is, why would you put Hairston in CF over him? They’re both in the lineup anyway, so why does the bat dictate what defensive positions you put them in?
I must not be understanding this.
iglew - August 9, 2009
It has to do with opportunity costs.
If the A’s had Hairston in LF and Rajai in CF then this prevents the A’s from potentially putting a player with a better offensive pedigree than Hairston in left. And since Scott Hairston’s bat is probably worse than the average MLB LF’s going forward, Scott Hairston’s overall value declines as a result. But if the A’s managed to find that hypothetical league average LF, Hairston would move to CF, and his offensive performance, as jeepers put it, would probably be better than the league average CF. And assuming his defense stays around league average relative to position, his overall value as a player would be higher.
All of this has to do with the idea that defensive values for different positions are not equal, which obviously isn’t something that’s entirely novel. A good fielding shortstop is far more valuable that a good fielding left fielder. Why? It has to do with scarcity: good fielding shortstops are harder to find. As such, people (Tom Tango to be specific) have actually calculated positional adjustments based on that idea. This is a why people make a big deal about Brett Wallace being quite a bit more valuable if he can play third rather than first or Chris Carter being able play any position at all (as you can see from Tango’s chart, DHs are worth -17.5 runs relative to other positions).
lenscrafters - August 9, 2009
Hairston is busy adjusting to the AL
His A’s line is 242/284/418 which is worse than Rajai’s 288/361/412 for the season. When you look at defense, Scott’s Range Factor is 2.31 (both Padres and A’s) and much worse than Rajai’s 3.01. For the time being there is an opportunity cost in moving Rajai.
If Scott manages to repeat his Padre figures from this season 299/358/533 he will look good in LF/RF.
pyrfan - August 9, 2009
Yes, I understand about positional adjustments.
I just figured that with both guys on the team anyway, the positional adjustments net out — eg, if Hairston is +2 as a CF or +0 as a LF, and Rajai is +1 as a CF or -1 as a LF, then playing them both gives you net +1 either way — so you may as well play them in whichever position gives you the best defense.
With regard to opportunity cost, I guess you’re saying we’re more likely to bring in an upgrade at LF than at CF. Since that means our erstwhile LF will get bumped, you want the LF to be the lesser player, which you perceive as Rajai. Right?
But if that happens, couldn’t you just move Hairston back to CF then? Or are you saying there’s value in sticking in the same position to get more comfortable in it, and since Hairston is more likely to be in our future than Rajai we should be playing Hairston in CF now even if his defense is currently inferior?
iglew - August 9, 2009
Rajai's speed makes him a better CF than Hairston for this team
when Jack Cust or another lesser defender is a corner OF. His speed lets Rajai get to balls that a better RF would cover. Having Scott in LF lets Rajai shade more to RF too. If/ when Rajai runs better routes and gets more of a good jump, he will be Gold Glove material.
For defense the ideal OF is to have 3 good CFs. It takes away a lot of hits from the other team. Of course the trade off is their batting lines aren’t usually as good as the average LF/RF. If Scott gets his A’s OPS over 800 and Rajai does too, this will be a great OF next year (or even this) when Cunningham or Buck start delivering.
pyrfan - August 10, 2009
I agree that he was trying too hard
Earlier in the season he had some of the most horrific at-bats I’ve ever seen – it was like he was closing his eyes and just swinging as hard as he could. He often looked completely overmatched.
Someone has finally convinced him that he doesn’t need to be a slugger, he just needs to make contact. This might be one of the biggest coaching successes on the team in the post-Chavez era. Too bad it never sunk in with Crosby.
coffee roaster - August 8, 2009
Speed kills
When you look at some of our recent top draftees it’s hard not to believe that the A’s Front Office has turned a corner and is looking at a 2011 team that’s closer to the Rays than the A’s of recent years.
Watching Rajai on base recently it’s hard not to gain some of his infectious enthusiasm. Anybody else gets on 1st base and it’s a ho-hum event (nobody likely to homer so he’s not likely to score) but our Rajai makes everyone sit up and take notice. Gotta love it.
And the timing of his coming out party is pretty much perfect with Rickey fever still on our minds.
itsgemme - August 8, 2009
RUN RAJAI RUN!
LoneStranger - August 8, 2009
I've been watching Rajai since 2007
I saw him play with the Giants, and was impressed with the energy he brought to his play. He didn’t play much, however, so when he got picked up by the A’s I was interested to see how he fared.
Both in 2008 (and especially during this second half of 2009) his offensive and defensive performance improved with regular play. That might sound like “so what, that’s true of all players”, but there are some players who can stay sharp and play signficant roles from the bench. Rajai – at least from what I’ve seen – doesn’t seem to be one of those players. He himself has said that he improves with lots of repetition, playing every day.
As for being a late bloomer: he certainly wouldn’t be the first player. Some have even been older than him (ok, not a whole lot older) when they started to bloom.
OaklandSi - August 8, 2009
Good Stuff Nico
Out of curiosity, do you know what his OBP is on his “reign of terror” recently?
No one ever doubted his speed, but it’s his relatively recent hitting and fielding prowess that now has people looking twice. In many ways, he’s an AL Jose Reyes (when he could hit). I don’t think he’ll ever be as good as a Carol Crawford, but I think he can be a poor man’s Crawford. Nonetheless, he can’t do it if he can’t get on base. To me, .340 is decent, but needs to be significantly above .350 for him to be a great difference maker.
cuppingmaster - August 8, 2009
So Nico got it wrong
It’s Carl / Carol Crawford who’s the drag queen :-)
itsgemme - August 8, 2009
He is hitting
.358 since AS break with an OBP of .417, a .547 sluggin percentage and an OPS 0f .947
Has only struck out 5 times in 53 AB’s. Has 7 SB’s and has driven in 18 in 19 games with 12 runs scored.
Trainman - August 8, 2009
Ok. not bad.. but can he do better ?
Eastbayjim - August 8, 2009
re: RUN RAJAI RUN!
I tried to start that cheer on Thursday with Rajai on base but it wouldn’t take, nothing will from section 120 as the average age is higher than the ’07 Giants will be in 2027. If anybody sits in the left field bleachers, might try starting it on next homestand.
BTW, stood in line for an hour with Kailen, 11, to get Rickey’s autograph Thursday and told him how much I liked his “Run Rickey Run” in his speech last Saturday, brought back old memories.
vk - August 8, 2009
Speed does go into slumps
Speed is worthless going from first to third on a single or stealing bases if you cant get on base in the first place. The value of speed declines markedly with success of other tools that is why with consistent speed the value of Rajai Davis has changed from DFA candidate to starting CFer as he busted out of his slump at the beginning of the year. I know you didn’t invent the phrase but it is one I really hate because when you think about it, speed by itself produces almost no measurable gains for a team.
designatedforassignment - August 8, 2009
Speed is a tool
Obviously, someone has to be on base in order for speed to count. But speed can get someone on base, and once on base, it not only can get someone from first to second, or to third, but it also can disrupt a game plan, a pitcher, and a defense. This kind of disruption is probably not quantifiable because it depends so much on the team, the individuals, the game plan, and the next batters. But I saw it every time Rickey Henderson in his prime was on base, when Tim Raines was on base, even when a smart player like Ichiro in his prime was on base. And of course, it’s not just speed, it’s speed and smarts.
I don’t think you can just look at Rajai Davis and say that his recent success is all due to a higher OBP. Last year, and earlier this year, when he was running the bases, he got caught (I heard he says he learned to never look at the ball and just go all out once he starts to run). He’s starting to pick up Rickey’s habit of toying with the pitcher, threatening to run and causing the pitcher to lose his cool. Again, it’s not quantifiable because you can’t get into every pitcher’s head. Rajai Davis would DESTROY Gio Gonzalez, for instance, if they played opposite one another.
Rajai Davis is now playing smart. That’s huge. Insofar as a .333 average and a 1.000 OPS go, I think the former could well continue, but the latter almost certainly won’t. Rajai Davis’s success lately is a combination of so many factors at the same time, and he can do damage and get on base in so many different ways, that I think we’re in for a nice stretch of quality work by the guy. It wouldn’t surprise me if it continued for a couple of years, as long as he remains healthy. Some players are hot, and just see the ball well for a while. Others somehow finally figure it out, and their game improves. I think that’s what happened with Rajai Davis.
richwol1 - August 8, 2009
You prove my point
Unless you contend that Rajai increased his speed recently, this statement is proves that speed can slump as for a long period of time Rajai underperformed his talent level.
designatedforassignment - August 8, 2009
Well, I'm not sure about that
Rajai never ran the bases well
-not with the Giants, and not last year with the A’s, and not the early part of the season with the A’s. Now he does. He claims it’s because he changed his approach.Which means it doesn’t have anything to do with a slump…it’s his learning curve.
richwol1 - August 8, 2009
Are you saying that Rajai's baserunning will never temporarily regress?
or that he will continue to get on base enough for it to matter whether he is fast or not?
designatedforassignment - August 8, 2009
DFA, please READ WHAT I SAY:
Speed may not go into slumps and it may create spark, energy, and excitement that is infectious — and put in the group that believes all this absolutely happens and is extremely real and valuable — but speed does have to get on base in order to help an offense
Does it sound like we are disagreeing, or saying the same thing?
Nico - August 8, 2009
Yes and no.
Im suggesting that the speed tool can in fact slump like a hit tool and that it needs on base skills to be useful. I am saying that the ability to steel bags and take bases can improve or decline above or below a players talent level.
designatedforassignment - August 8, 2009
Also can we cut out the drag queen stuff especially after the fairy caption incident?
Making that joke cements norms in a way that is not productive to treating all members of society equally.
designatedforassignment - August 8, 2009
As AN's resident "out" crossdresser,
I just want to say I’m not personally insulted.
Gaijin_Suketto - August 8, 2009
It promotes the idea that cross dressing is something to be "shocked" by.
It furthers stereotypes that suggest that athletes aren’t gay or that it would be unacceptable for one of them to do drag. While it isn’t as insulting as the fairies caption, that doesn’t mean it isn’t insidious or harmful. Furthermore, looking at Nico’s explanation for it, he uses it in a shock jock fashion, only saying it because he could, rather than it having any relevance to the rest of his post.
designatedforassignment - August 8, 2009
This is simular to the laws of sexual harassment.
If the person you are talking in a sexual manner to is not offended but someone else nearby to sees/hears the conversation can file a sexual harassment claim.
So in this case, and I have no idea of the sexual leanings for designatedforassignment, but the fact that it was written here and he (I am making an assumption here) was offended is enough to prompt Nico to remove the statement altogether.
Now, we do have another problem where designatedforassignment used the word/term “fairy” which Nico did not, and if one has to go then both do. For to use another apparently sexual degrading term in reference to what you don’t like in another’s post is just as bad.
Eastbayjim - August 8, 2009
Except that designatedforassignment
is referencing “fairy” because Nico used it in a picture caption earlier this year. Hence, “fairy caption incident”.
To be honest, I happened to see the drag queen comment before the story was posted, and I thought, “Me thinks someone is going to call this out.”
67MARQUEZ - August 8, 2009
Its just so unnecessary...
no if it was a drag bunting joke that would be funny. This however is just kinda crass.
designatedforassignment - August 8, 2009
Give me a break.
Face it buddy, for whatever reason you just cannot stand Nico.
I personally do not care one way or the other. Free speech is free speech, but when you in the other thread endorsed Blez’s calling Lackey Slingblade in a demeaning manner and further continue the hate against the mentally ill, how is that any different?
Seems like a slippery slope that you give Blez the pass yet Nico takes all the flack for making a very, very innocuous comment.
Pucking Insane - August 8, 2009
Slingblade? I have no idea what my endorsement was nor what the reference point is.
And if Blez went made jokes that harmed the LGBTQ community I would call him out on it too.
designatedforassignment - August 8, 2009
Because you asked:
From this thread:
http://www.athleticsnation.com/2009/8/6/980455/time-to-update-ancillary-terms
Dan Merqury: "Slingblade = John Lackey for his inability to keep his mouth closed and his resemblance to Billy Bob asking for some "french fried taters"
DFA: “I like that one but i haven’t heard it in years and years.”
Pucking Insane - August 8, 2009
Ok... I had no idea that that was the reference
I thought it was just because John Lackey is the kinda guy that would start screaming at you and try to cut you in a bar. Apparently its a movie that Ive never seen. If you have an issue with a comment bring it up in the thread don’t go all ape somewhere else.
designatedforassignment - August 9, 2009
I tend to agree
I wasn’t offended by the fairy caption – in fact, I laughed because the photo itself was so silly and the caption expressed that perfectly – but now I’m finding this stuff a little tiresome.
Would Nico make an overtly racist remark to tell the “truth” about Davis? No, of course not. So why is it okay to target cross dressers? It’s bad enough that prejudice against GLBT is so acceptable in our society, but it doesn’t really need to appear on the front page of a baseball blog as a throwaway non-sequitor.
coffee roaster - August 8, 2009
I was not aware that drag queen was a derogatory term.
Not to mention that in this context, it’s pretty obvious that there is no malice behind it.
Pucking Insane - August 8, 2009
The term itself isn't derogatory
But to apply it in a completely ridiculous way, in a mocking “I’m just throwing out a non-sequitor here” way, is pretty unnecessary. I never said there was malice behind it. I just don’t think it belongs on a baseball blog.
coffee roaster - August 8, 2009
Im not saying there is "malice" just that it causes harm and Nico should stop it.
The way we use words in language engenders meaning in them. The way Nico constructed his post cannot be seen as neutral.
designatedforassignment - August 8, 2009
Well, as long as we're being all sensitive here.
I’m a little annoyed by your implication, DFA, that drag queens are gay. Nico mentioned drag queens only, and said nothing about homosexuality. You’re the one who brought up gays.
I used to cross-dress occasionally. But I’ve never been gay at all. A lot of guys who cross-dress regularly are straight. The idea that all cross-dressers must be homosexual is a false stereotype that you might want to avoid propagating.
Not that I care much about any of this. Nico’s jokes don’t offend me at all. Your comment I wouldn’t have bothered with except that you seem to be taking the side of opposing sexual stereotypes, in which case you ought to be more consistent.
(By the way, to anyone who out there who is open to it, I highly recommend trying cross-dressing at least once. If your body is such that you can pass, and you’re open-minded enough to try it in earnest without freaking out, it’s a very enlightening experience, and kind of fun, too. You’ll have a much better understanding of what it’s like to be a woman in social settings.)
iglew - August 9, 2009
I am not trying to imply that.
The gay part referred to the fairies comment, which Nico never apologized for, rather than implying that people like you, me, or J. Edgar Hoover are gay simply because they have cross dressed.
designatedforassignment - August 9, 2009
OK, cool. I guess I misunderstood your comment.
iglew - August 9, 2009
I agree and
The thing I noticed the most about him in the last 2 weeks is his pitch selection. He is making much more conntact and not swinging at pitches out of the strike zone. I do see him as a 280/350 hitter. His biggest problem will be hitting right handed pitching. He has always been good against lefties but if he can hit the righties also then he is a everyday player.
Arcman - August 8, 2009
More agreement on Rajal and it underscores a major weakness of Geren and maybe Beane too.
As a manager of a very inexperienced/youthful team, Geren has created a culture of uncertainty. Thus, players like Buck, Barton, and Davis feel like they have to perform like studs NOW or it’s back to AAA, while he seemingly has given a season pass to vets like Giambi & Nomar. When players (like Davis or now Everidge) have a sense of just going out and playing, we can see their true performance. Give Pennington and Everidge a real chance to rise or fall, which is what is now happening. Geren has allowed the pitchers that leeway, mostly out of desperation I think, and the flaws and strengths have emerged. It just took Geren far too long to figure out what was obvious to AN; this team is not a contender.
JJ Martin - August 8, 2009
Wait a minute
It’s pretty amazing to me that people can use Rajai Davis as a reason to criticize Geren. Through the All Star Break, the nearly universal consensus on AN was that Davis sucked, needed to be DFA’d, and should never, ever, have started ahead of Travis Buck, who deserved Rajai’s spot in the majors and was only in the minors because of some stupid, petty, personal issue between Buck and Beane.
In fact, Geren’s insistence on giving Rajai regular playing time, despite the fact that he was playing badly, was one of the main reasons people called for his head for the first half of the season. If it were up to AN, Davis would have been DFAd some time in April and he’d be tearing up the league for someone else now.
Geren got this one right. We didn’t. Wear it.
Nick - August 8, 2009
Great post.
We also blamed Geren for a lot of the dropped popups, but now we’re saying it’s because Rajai was trying too hard.
travdog6 - August 8, 2009
what is his contract status?
Love to have him around for a while…
Colorado Booze Hounds - August 8, 2009
League minimum 1 year deal
2010 Arb eligible.
A'sfansince1970 - August 8, 2009
and 2011-12-13 arb eligible
OmahaHi - August 8, 2009
Mort
Should pitch about as well as Vinny did last night. 1.32 WHIP, best pitcher in Sac. Hopefully Greneike pitches as well as he did last time out against the Rays!
A'sfansince1970 - August 8, 2009
Personally,
I’ll take Brett Anderson in this game…. Maybe I’m jinxing him, but Brett Anderson might be a Top-5 lefty in the game, Right Now. Health on his side, I see a better version of Mark Mulder.
Colorado Fan - August 8, 2009
King Brett is a top 5 lefty in the AL. Right now.
The stats are there.
I knew Anderson was good but this is holy shit awesome.
Blicks - August 8, 2009
Rajai's stats
On May 30, Rajai went 0-for-1 to drop his line to .146/.205/.146/.351. He didn’t play again until June 2. Since then he is at .336/.403/.504/.907. If that date sounds familiar, that was also Vin Mazzaro’s MLB debut (aka the beginning of “Mazzaro World”).
To go even deeper into his “Reign of Terror,” on June 22 he went 2-for-4 with a triple in the A’s only win over the Giants this season. After that date his season OBP never went back below .300. Since then, it’s been .446, with a full line of .356/.446/.562/1.008.
May 30 was his low point (besides the nifty 0/0/0/0 line he had after 2 games). After a terrible April, he had an even worse May and was sitting on a .146/.205/.146/.351 line.
thashyt - August 8, 2009
Remember another time when May 30th was rock bottom?
IT’S 2005 ALL OVER AGAIN!!!!
harenshair - August 8, 2009
does that mean we'll be in the ALCS next year?
thashyt - August 9, 2009
So good
Well done, Nico. This is what I love so much about AN 7.8…
I’m really getting the things you actually see on the field on a day-to-day basis, watching the team religiously through thick and thin. These “things” (mental aspect of the game) need to be better evaluated (Barton, cough) within (Eveland, Cough) the Front Office (Buck, cough… cough).
So anyways, if guys like Cunningham, Buck, Carter, Cardenas, Grant Green, Brett Wallace… (i.e. future centerpieces of the ballteam) can start producing like everyone thinks they should, you can more than afford to run Rajai Davis into CF 150 days a year. You cannot expect Rajai Davis to become a centerpiece of this team.
Colorado Fan - August 8, 2009
Thanks, CF. For the first time in a while,
I’m finding myself looking forward to watching games not just because “well they’re my team, they’ll be good again soon,” but because the games are interesting to watch, and Rajai has been no small catalyst.
Nico - August 8, 2009
rajai IS kind of a spazz
but it works for him. at least, that’s how i’ve been explaining to myself the weird number of throwing errors by players trying to pick him off. there’s something completely unnerving about the way he moves his body when he’s kind of in trouble and whatever that is, it induces a bad throw. i’m serious. i think it’s rajai’s doing. he’s moving like a bullet, but a little clumsily too, and the look on his face says that he himself doesn’t know what he’s gonna do next. there must be something in that unpredictability that makes the thrower doubt where to throw for just long enough to botch his mechanics.
AV - August 8, 2009
Great points.
Rajai looks like he’s in control of his game. At the beginning of the season, he looked absolutely overmatched on offense and defense. I think one thing to be learned from Rajai is that we need to give guys a fair shot to adjust before sending them back down.
travdog6 - August 8, 2009
or in Rajai's case, DFAing him, since he's out of options
OaklandSi - August 8, 2009
As i said...
in my my fanpost , he really needs to learn to bunt and maybe do some ichiro swings so he can get more infield hits. This, combined, with the walks he’s been taking of late should keep his obp around .335-.340 and ensure he gets starts here and there. If he regresses to his career norms, and continues to get bad reads in the outfield, he’s DFA bait….
ST - August 8, 2009
Save bunting and Ichiro swings for Spring Training
For the season Rajai now has an OBP above 360, a Range Factor over 3 (just below the AL leaders for the last 5 years and in the middle of the NL leaders over that time) and is stealing bases better. So he is giving plus defense with an OPS that is Carl Crawford’s career average (not as good as this season) and Rajai is giving other teams problems with his base running.
For the rest of the season let’s enjoy what he is already doing well and let him work on improving that…
pyrfan - August 9, 2009
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