As I watched Brett Anderson mow down one Angel after another yesterday afternoon, a silly thought popped into my head:
Why aren't there more perfect games?
The effort set forth by Anderson seemed so effortless that I started to feel like a perfecto was within reach around the fifth inning. But Bobby Abreu had no interest in history being repeated- Catfish Hunter was perfect in 1968 on the same mound Anderson pitched off of yesterday- and his seventh-inning single ended a string of 20 straight batters retired by the young southpaw.
And it reminded me just how daunting the feat of 27 up, 27 down really is.
There have been several near-misses in Major League history- nine pitchers have come within a single out of a perfect game- but since this is an A's site, we'll revisit only those games where the Green-and-Gold was involved.
It is worth noting, however, that had Anderson completed his quest for baseball immortality without getting any run support from his own team, he would have joined Harvey Haddix and Pedro Martinez as the hardest-luck pitchers of all-time.

All told, there have been 15 Perfect Games since 1903, but none between 1922 and 1956 (and that one came in the World Series). The decade with the most was the 1990's (4). The 60's and 80's had three each, while the 70's had none. Randy Johnson has pitched this decade's only Perfect Game.
I have an unusual fascination for no-hitters, and I've seen two in person (one by the A's, and one against them). The no-hitter pitched by the A's was a combo-package; four pitchers had a hand in stifling the Angels in 1975. I hardly remember that one. I did see Nolan Ryan pitch his sixth career no-no, which came at the Coliseum in 1990.
One thing that I find funny is the superstitiousness that surrounds these kinds of games. Not necessarily from those who are extra careful not to mention "no-hitter" as one is being pitched, but by those who find the whole idea ridiculous. Of course we don't really believe that saying it is going to jinx it or not saying it won't, but the reaction to us superstitious types is sometimes even funnier than our own actions.
What side of the fence do you sit on? Do you groan when an announcer mentions a no-hitter, even though clearly it is his job to inform listeners who might be late to check in? Do you think he should cleverly advise his audience of the current situation without mentioning those fateful words? What is an acceptable replacement to "no-hitter"? And lastly, what lengths will you go to as a fan to "preserve" the no-hitter?
The A's and Twins take the field tonight at 7:05.
0 recs | 82 comments
i hate when announcers actually say anything or elude to it at all
But I think the right thing to do, in a radio broadcast, is for the announcer to calmly recite Runs, Hits, and Errors for each team, in the case of TV, the graphic should be enough.
But I truly believe announcers should shut it otherwise, I can remember more than a few occasions where some announcer started talking about it and within the next half inning, No-Hitter gone.
stranahanahan - July 20, 2009
( allude )
elude is for whey you escape those chasing you.
MobiusKlein - July 20, 2009
Doesn't Whey go with Porriage?
alox - July 20, 2009
auto-correct off
MobiusKlein - July 20, 2009
Not to worry....
I can’t spell porriage either. But I know what it is. I can’t say the same about whey.
alox - July 20, 2009
sorry
i misspelled it in the first place and went with spell check, just clicked the wrong one!
stranahanahan - July 20, 2009
I've never understood this at all
Sure, I get the idea of jinxes, but… an announcer mentioning a no-hitter has absolutely no bearing on whether or not it gets thrown. Does the pitcher hear it? No. All the announcer is doing is cluing in casual readers that something special may be going on.
ORthey - July 20, 2009
Cool article
I remember the Witt game – Gagne looked out. The next game I think he threw a 2 hit shutout.
Also Curt Young is a lefty.
DeJay - July 20, 2009
Thanks
for breaking up my perfect game, DeJay. ;-)
67MARQUEZ - July 20, 2009
lol
Well considering the topic of the article it is quite fitting!
DeJay - July 20, 2009
He was CLEARLY out
I bet the umpire has felt bad for it ever since. I was SO angry for a long time. However, if the guy gets called out, you never know what happens yet… like in Sanchez’s the other day, had Uribe not made that error, who knows what happens?
ORthey - July 20, 2009
Jinx
Personally, I’m not superstitious at all, so I don’t give a flip about any jinx. But if I’m in company (including game threads) I like to see the traditional decorum observed for the sake of my fellow fans who do care about it. Whether you believe in the jinx or not, to mention a no-hitter is simply rude (or ignorant).
That goes for announcers, too. There are plenty of ways to communicate the information without saying it directly. One formula that Ken Korach used last night that I really like is he said, “The A’s have the only baserunners so far tonight”. Others could learn from Ken.
iglew - July 20, 2009
"The A’s have the only baserunners so far tonight"
I heard that from Ken yesterday, and thought it was great. When I listened to Sanchez’s no hitter, the Giants radio team spent three solid innings talking about the last time the Giants had a no hitter, the no hitters that Sanchez threw when he was younger, all that. I am a superstitious fan, and I blame them for the error that broke up the perfecto.
gigglingone - July 20, 2009
But Sanchez ended up getting the no-hitter
Shouldn’t this change your superstition?
CarGon's Jock - July 20, 2009
But he didn't get the perfect game
They were talking about perfect games too
gigglingone - July 20, 2009
I don't ever talk about anything ever
so as not to jinx anything.
Future Ed - July 20, 2009
...
…….
bobnothing - July 20, 2009
How about we talk about
this sudden rash of A’s fans listening and watching Giants games? That can’t possibly be good luck.
67MARQUEZ - July 20, 2009
well, I think that's why he DID get the no-hitter
because I was torn between rooting for the no-hitter, or rooting against the Giants.
And really, if there’s a no-hitter on the line, I’ll watch or listen, no matter who is playing.
gigglingone - July 20, 2009
Oh I tease, gigs.
And I agree with you. I remember waking up from an afternoon nap to catch David Cone’s perfect game in ’99, and later smiled at my good timing.
67MARQUEZ - July 20, 2009
Seriously.
My best friend from my Bay Area days, with whom I became an A’s fan in 1994 of all years, bought a fuggin SF hat last week.
Elvez - July 20, 2009
Numbers
On your initial question, a big part of the difficulty is just in the numbers. Intuitively, we figure if something is “really really likely” then it must also be “really really likely” to happen over and over again. But in fact, any probability that strays too far from 100% deteriorates quickly when multiplied 27 times.
For example, suppose that with each batter faced, a pitcher is 97% likely to get the out. That would be insanely good, and if you think that’s the real odds, you’re probably high. But even if that really is his odds for each batter, it still turns into only 43.94% chance of getting all 27 outs.
Dial it down to 90% for each batter (which is still insanely good), and the chances of a perfect game is 5.81%.
Dial it down to 80% for each batter — that sounds unimpressive until you realize it means each hitter has .200 OBP against him, which is still excellent — and the chance of a perfect game is 0.24%.
iglew - July 20, 2009
Oooooh, numbers. I feel all tingly inside.
I wonder if that 0.24% corresponds to the number of perfect games thrown in comparison to the number of games in ML history.
OldhamA - July 20, 2009
Well, considering that the average OBP in baseball
is significantly more than .200, the number of perfect games ought to be significantly less than 0.24% (and I’m pretty sure it is).
Take average OBP over all of MLB, subtract from 1.000, take that ratio to the 27th power. The result ought to approximate the percentage of all games which are perfect games. I expect it will be a pretty tiny fraction.
I’m not sure we have the data to calculate over ML history, but should be pretty easy for any given recent year.
iglew - July 20, 2009
Easy enough
AL OBP is 0.335 this season, and the NL OBP is 0.330. If I weight these by the number of teams in each league, I get an overall OBP of 0.332. (1-.332)^27 = 1.86E-5, or 0.00186% chance of a perfect game. Given that there will be 4860 games this season (assuming no rain-outs), the number of perfectos we can expect is 0.09.
The actual chance of a perfect games is probably a little less because using OBP does not account for errors, or having crappy fielders like Cust , Adam Dunn, or Jay Bruce.
doctorK - July 20, 2009
That hurt my head.
But come on doctorK, I want more than that. I want you to predict the next one, so I can be there for it.
67MARQUEZ - July 20, 2009
The next one - that's real easy
Tonight – when our bat-less A’s take the field!
doctorK - July 20, 2009
I couldn't figure out if I thought the actual chance
is slightly more or slightly less. Besides errors, some other factors:
Our calculation assumes that each hitter has exactly .335 OBP, but in fact some will have more and some will have less. This has a net effect of making a perfect game slightly less likely than our formula predicts.
But we’re also assuming that every pitcher is of average skill on any given day, when in fact some pitchers are better than others, and those good pitchers are better on some days than they are on others. This has a net effect of making a perfect game slightly more likely than our formula predicts.
Combining those, the possibility of errors, plus probably other factors I’m not thinking of, I really don’t know if our formula overestimates or underestimates the chances. My gut feeling is that it slightly underestimates it.
iglew - July 20, 2009
No-hitters in general.
To me, it’s a wonder no-hitters happen at all. Especially looking down onto the outfield from up top of any stadium. There is a lot of space and only three guys to cover all that ground! Aerial shots of stadiums are always amazing to me because you really get to see how big a baseball field really is.
When a pitcher is on, and he is getting strikeouts and pitching to how the defense is set up, it’s a magical thing. I was seriously nervous and pacing around the house after the 5th innng. Anderson may never do this again, but I am pretty impressed with his last couple of games. If the A’s can get Cahill and Mazzaro on track…look out!
Coach Cleats - July 20, 2009
The Perfect Game
I think this might be the toughest single thing for an athlete to accomplish in sports. Pitching a no hitter is tough enough, a perfect game is even more difficult.
With all of the advance scouting and player substitutions seeing a perfect game thrown is getting more rare. A pitcher needs to have everything break right for it to happen.
I am very excited by what I am seeing with Anderson. He has great stuff, but his mound presence is very impressive for a 21 year old.
KCa's - July 20, 2009
I blame Baseball Tonight
After the sixth inning they did a 30 second run down of Andersons performance. They must had said perfect about 10-15 times.
robbo650 - July 20, 2009
That's less than sportscenter did.
I think they showed Anderson throw one pitch, then they showed Abreu’s base hit, Aybar making that stupid ass looking running catch in centerfield, and then Abreu’s homer.
mikev - July 20, 2009
I just upgraded my comcast package to HD and the extra channels
now I get the MLB network and don’t have to watch sportscenter :-) OH HAPPY DAY!
oh and baseball in HD, ssssssoooooooooo great! I know some HD is better than others but I’m hooked, everything is so clear and bright and shiney.
micdog2001 - July 20, 2009
When the Perfect Game was in fact broken up
Is it just me or was Anderson kind of giving a half hearted tip of the cap to the fans?
To me, it looked like he did, and that was cool.
stranahanahan - July 20, 2009
When calling Don Larsen's perfect game at Yankee Stadium
From wikipedia:
smokelanda - July 20, 2009
Vin Scully, like Ken Korach, is a consummate professional.
Unlike several other broadcasters I can think of….
iglew - July 20, 2009
I do like Vince's alludings over outright saying it
I think he mentioned “Anderson hasn’t allowed a base-runner yet” a number of times.
I am superstitious; my memory is of a game in 2003 (?) where Cory Lidle had a no-no going into the 7th or so when my friend, whom I delicately tried to inform of Lidle’s status, promptly said “Lidle pitching a no-no?? Yeah right, that’s never gonna happen.” Meanwhile I’m going “SSHHH!!! Shut up!”, and Lidle gives up his first hit of the day.
I promptly punched my friend in the shoulder. I give him a hard time about that day every time we discuss A’s baseball.
popcornjames - July 20, 2009
...which is exactly how these superstitions get started.
smokelanda - July 20, 2009
That game was on ESPN right?
My aunt lived at the same retirement community as Cory lidles grandmother and would always ask about how he was doing. I had to call her and tell her in no uncertain terms to turn on the game without telling her why. I t was a longer conversation than I anticipated.
Future Ed - July 20, 2009
I think you now have to include Sanchez' game
in the list of close calls. He never walked a batter, after all, and unlike Bosman, he didn’t make the one error.
jasonthea - July 20, 2009
Oh I see
only involving the A’s. Never mind.
jasonthea - July 20, 2009
I have imperfect thoughts all the time.
mikev - July 20, 2009
I often think about imperfect verbs.
</grammar nerd>
iglew - July 20, 2009
Rooting for perfect games.
I often hear people say that after a certain point they will root for the perfect game, no matter who it is. I’m just the opposite. I guess I’m a purist in rooting for my team. Even if we’re down 10-0 in the ninth, and even if the opponent is my second-favorite team and a pitcher I like, I still root for my team to at least get that one hit.
Then again, as game-thread regulars know, I’m the sort of guy who refuses to give up on the game until the final out, no matter how badly we’re being blown out.
iglew - July 20, 2009
I was happy
about the error in the schilling game. even happier with the stewert hit. For me its a case by case thing.
Future Ed - July 20, 2009
Oh, I was REALLY happy with Stewart's hit.
I too vary on case by case, but never to the point of actually hoping for the no-hitter against us.
If Felix Hernandez is pitching a no-hitter against us and I am watching in the company of friends who are Mariners fans, I will keep quiet about it and be respectful of their disappointment when we break it up, not mentioning till later that as an A’s fan I was secretly pleased.
At the other extreme, if it’s Curt Schilling pitching for Boston, I will jump up and down and whoop, “Ha! Suck it! In your face, m*****f****!!!” (Which, in fact, I think is a pretty close approximation of what I actually did do, in the privacy of my own home….)
iglew - July 20, 2009
I did the same thing.
But at the game. Nah, there was no reason to. Red Sox fans actually looked as if they lost that game. It was great.
67MARQUEZ - July 20, 2009
+1
micdog2001 - July 20, 2009
My uncle will walk out of games that the A's are being no-hit.
And I like the fact that you refuse to give up. Refreshing. For me and perfect games, if I am at the game, I might root for it, but it would surely have to depend on who is pitching and/or the team he was pitching for. If I am not at the game, I don’t care who it is, I don’t want to see one pitched against us.
67MARQUEZ - July 20, 2009
I will not root for it against the A's.
I’d make mention of Schilling’s repeatedly, hoping that there was something to this jinx thing.
But if succeeded, I would have stood up and recognized the feat for what it was.
alox - July 20, 2009
Curt's near miss
One thing I want to add about Curt Young’s near perfect game in 86… the only batter to reach (Kevin Seitzer) did so on an infield hit. It was a high chopper off home plate that Carney Lansford had to wait forever for it to come down. Curt was amazing…. I don’t even think there were any hard hit outs that day.
The funny thing about that day was, before the game started, I was watching Brett Saberhagen warming up and thinking he had no hit stuff. I don’t think he made it out of the fifth inning and Curt Young pitched the best game I’ve ever seen…. even better than Ryan’s no hitter in 1990.
McBain - July 20, 2009
It's all coming back to me.
I was at that game, and you’re right, it was agonizing waiting for that damn ball to come down.
67MARQUEZ - July 20, 2009
Carney said...
He knew he didn’t have a chance to throw out Seitzer and thought about dropping the ball so it would look like an error.
For about a year to a year and a half, Curt Young was one of the best left handed pitchers in the league.
McBain - July 20, 2009
So with Giambi on DL
Barton gets the call.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/blogs/athletics/detail?&entry_id=43955
Trainman - July 20, 2009
THANK GOD
mikev - July 20, 2009
Jason won't know why he is injured
he will just know what he was told.
Future Ed - July 20, 2009
Are you sure it is Barton that is getting called up?
I haven’t seen that anywhere, but I imagine that is who they will call on.
I bet Giambi got hurt when he slid into 1B on defense and then fell down trying to get up.
jakebmill - July 20, 2009
Rotoworld also says Barton
Trainman - July 20, 2009
Thanks...
Let’s see if he makes it there in time for tonight’s game. I have seen enough of Crosby/Nomar/Powell at 1B for this season.
jakebmill - July 20, 2009
The rivercats are in tacoma
they were at home over the weekend. its a 2 hour flight from tacoma.
I hope he is in the lineup as well.
Future Ed - July 20, 2009
Also, I expect Geren to
run NOmore out there everyday and let Barton cool off on the bench. At least until Nomar goes back on the DL. I won’t be surprised.
jakebmill - July 20, 2009
Well crap.
That might take all of four or five innings.
alox - July 20, 2009
Wooooo!
Whether Jason is actually hurt or not, I am so glad to see this.
Come on, Staplehead! Be so hot that they can’t send you back down!!!
iglew - July 20, 2009
< cries when Geren announces that Crosby will start at 1B tonight >
iglew - July 20, 2009
I want to see Everidge up here
robbo650 - July 20, 2009
Barton is better.
mikev - July 20, 2009
I agree
but I would like to see Everidge up here also. Dont know where to put him though.
robbo650 - July 20, 2009
First base.
Convert Barton to third.
mikev - July 20, 2009
Kennedy?
Trade?Move to 2nd again?Ellis?
robbo650 - July 20, 2009
Show some respect
For a guy who was gunna play first base and DH 50/50 who is 38 and broke down because of a manager that refuses to DH him. I give Jason credit for going out there everyday and playing first base. He broke down because of it.
Oakland F's - July 20, 2009
Right, except he DOESN'T go out there everyday.
mikev - July 20, 2009
Reading this
I feel good about the pitching staff developing, but I just can’t stop thinking that’s it’s only a matter of time before our offense gets no-no’ed
fruitattack - July 20, 2009
Or that one of our guys throws one.
67MARQUEZ - July 20, 2009
That would inject a lot of life into the team
I’d take a Cahill no-no with 6 walks over a Cust walk-off shot
…provided we actually have a run on the board in the case of the former
fruitattack - July 20, 2009
Why not this
A Cahill no-no with six walks, and a shot of Custy walk-off goodness.
doctorK - July 20, 2009
Fire someone?
Why isnt the hitting coach Skaleen on the hot seat? He’s the hitting coach for the worst offensive team in the big leagues. He has a team full of guys with track records who are way below where they should be. Geren skates because he’s Billy’s boy but get rid of someone to shake this up. Its a joke. Complete joke.
Oakland F's - July 20, 2009
I have never understood all this jinx stuff, btw
Somehow, we believe that no-hitters need to be respected and handled with kid gloves – even WHILE THEY ARE HAPPENING. After the game, of course – they are amazing feats. But during the game??? Makes no sense to me. These are major leaguers, getting paid thousands and millions to play games at the very highest level in the world. We don’t need to be worried about Ken Korach mentioning that a pitcher has not given up a hit, the same way we shouldn’t bash a bunt attempt during a no-hitter (that always got me too – since when is getting a bunt hit easy or cheap? A defense needs to be ready for anything, especially in a close game).
I know baseball is a game of lore, tact, and superstition, but as a fan and a former pitcher I say that we give in-progress no-hitters more reverence than they deserve.
ORthey - July 20, 2009
My wife and I got in an arguement over the bunting during a no-hitter thing
I don’t like it when a batter tries to break it up with a bunt. It isn’t against the rules but it bugs me. I can’t get a hit off of you so I will try to trick you.
It’s like throwing dirt/sand in the eyes of an opponent during a fight because your getting the crap beat out of you.
micdog2001 - July 20, 2009
Yeah, but...
A bunt single is just as valid as a line smash off the wall. It’s actually very hard to bunt for a hit. If it’s a 15-0 game in the 9th, I guess I can understand getting angry, but… baseball is a game that because it has no clock can change incredibly quickly. 5-0 game in the 7th? You’re not only trying to break up a not-hitter, you’re also trying to get a win. Baserunners are the way to start accomplishing that. Bunting is a perfectly fine way of getting on base. And the infielders need to be aware of that. Bunting isn’t some secret, cheap way to get on base… it’s hard.
ORthey - July 20, 2009
that is true
it still bugs me though.
micdog2001 - July 20, 2009
If bunting to get on base were easy, guys would do it all the time.
I’m totally in favor of getting a bunt single against a guy who’s throwing a no-hitter. Whatever it takes to get on base.
iglew - July 21, 2009
Dale. Staplehead.
pam5981 - July 20, 2009
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