I am not here to start trade speculation… or to talk about the A’s farm system. (Bad, grover… I know. Does this mean I need to be spanked now?)
What I am here to do is assess the potential trade markets available to the A’s as they attempt to unload Matt Holliday, Orlando Cabrera, Adam Kennedy & Jason Giambi. Sure, normally I talk about A’s prospects in these weekly chats but I figure discussing the A’s prospects to acquire MORE prospects is close enough to count. Not that I intend to talk about any potential prospect packages in this write up, I feel it’s a little early to start getting into that kind of detail. Besides, I want to give other posters the opportunity to create their own fanposts about whom they’d want from whichever particular team. Designatedforassignment, for example, wrote a very solid piece discussing the New York Mets and their interest in Matt Holliday and I’d like to see him (or her?) tackle some of the teams I’ll discuss in a bit. I encourage other posters to try their hand as well. (Believe me, it’s so much easier on me if I can just comment on the work of others and not have to put in the hours of research!)
Just a friendly reminder… if you’ve got questions about another team’s prospects or you’re worried that your idea is too off-the-wall to avoid ridicule, my e-mail is listed in my bio.
So to do this right, I had to first figure out who might be a potential match for the A’s in a trade scenario. I looked at every team that (as of 6/28) was either leading their division or were within 3 games of their division leader and/or the Wild Card. That gave me 17 teams whose immediate futures are a lot brighter than the
I’m going to start with Matt Holliday… as I’ve sorta segued to him anyways and he’s the biggest trade chip the A’s have. He’s still considered the premier bat on the trade market even though he’s had a bit of a down season in
NY-NL: 248/323/348 (RF) 281/358/424 (LF) 280/377/439 (+145 OPS vs. RF)
Cincy: 240/307/403 291/387/456 (+133 OPS)
SF: 245/314/358 285/382/448 (+158 OPS)
Let’s talk about this a little bit. To start with, why did I split Adam Lind’s production from
This leads me right to Jason Giambi! (Gee, it’s almost like I planned that.) I’ll be honest, Giambi becomes much more marketable if he’d get hot over the next couple of weeks and the best chance of that happening is if the A’s make him the DH through the end of July.
Like I said, there’s an extremely limited market for Giambi but it would help immensely if he went on a tear right now. I doubt the A’s would get a whole lot for him straight up, and they’d have to kick in the cash to cover his $1.25 million buy-out in 2010, but it might be worth it to pick up a couple of low-level prospects with some upside.
I don’t have a clever way of getting to Adam Kennedy, then again, the A’s showed enough cleverness to pull him away from
SF: 231/280/271 307/373/480 (+202 OPS)
Now to the curious case of Orlando Cabrera. He’s sucked thus far, and if he played any position other than SS he wouldn’t be under consideration for anything other than the waiver wire. As it is,
I’m not going to take the time to write about the bullpen arms the A’s could deal, save one. A lot of people seem to think that Russ Springer has no trade value. It is my esteemed opinion that a lot of people are dead wrong. Sure, his overall numbers are poor but consider what he did in April and June:
April: 11 G 10.1 IP 8 H 4 BB 14 K 1.74 ERA
June: 9 G 7.1IP 7 H 2 BB 10 K 1.23 ERA
Those are not the numbers of a guy with zero trade value.
Enjoy and discuss.
1 recs | 123 comments
I am looking forward to the things to come.
Let the trades begin!
IM4Oakgal - June 30, 2009
I really hope AK gets to stick around.
While he’s cooled off a bit, the guy has been solid.
Add all of the injuries to the equation, I think it’d be a shame to trade a vet that can play the left side and gets on base.
If it happens- I’d prefer we get someone ready/ currently playing MLB.
brian.only - June 30, 2009
I hope AK remains on fire, and that Ellis comes off the DL hammering the ball all over...
…so we can ship them both before they start (inevitably) sucking eggs again, or in Ellis’ case before he goes on the DL again…
kitoko - June 30, 2009
Kennedy's OPS for june is below .600
Cheezombie - June 30, 2009
I saw this posted earlier...
It’s interesting to say the least!
MMunoz33 - June 30, 2009
AK
He would be a nice around the diamond fill in at 3B, 2B and maybe even 1B. But as a starter at 3B I am not inspired. With Ellis back that is where he will be. A Marco Scutaro guy is what I see him as. Valuable piece. Giambi, Cab, Matt H., – those are the chips to push across the table.
bajablue - June 30, 2009
Agree.
When he’s at the plate we can hope for a hit…that’s a good feeling for bitter fans.
IM4Oakgal - June 30, 2009
Kennedy plays baseball correctly
He should stay so others can see what that looks like, .600 OPS or .900 OPS.
Nico - June 30, 2009
+1
MMunoz33 - June 30, 2009
ehhhh...
rebus - June 30, 2009
you mean he plays Scioscia-ball?
He’s gritty and hard-nosed, gets his uniform dirty and hustles on every play!
cityplANner - June 30, 2009
AND plays the game right.
Nico - June 30, 2009
oh god..
I watched too much mlb network during spring training…and they did that 30 clubs in 30 days thing. John Hart said, for every team, “they play the right way!” WTF does that even mean!? Is there someone who doesn’t play the right way?
Cheezombie - June 30, 2009
Have you watched Emil Brown?
Nico - June 30, 2009
I meant in the opinion of John Hart
Cheezombie - June 30, 2009
When it comes to baseball and grittiness,
I only care about what Mary Hart has to say.
Nico - June 30, 2009
=P
you’re such a good sport, Nico.
cityplANner - June 30, 2009
I really hope Duke comes back soon, healthy, effective, and STARTING...
…because that kind of a trade chip is worth a TON this year…the Phillies have a couple of kids (one IF and one OF) they’ll maybe talk about swapping for a quality starter +…
kitoko - June 30, 2009
there was a blurb about that on espn.com today, maybe someone a little more tech-savvy can post a link to it...
kitoko - June 30, 2009
haha...
MMunoz33 - June 30, 2009
It'd also be nice to fill in Outman's spot with a healthy Duke
cityplANner - June 30, 2009
woke up this morning thinking the same thing....nice!
mrod - June 30, 2009
Silver lining!
I completely forgot about Duke being alive.
muffinpryde - June 30, 2009
Demand-side economics
This is why Holliday is going to be traded. It has nothing to do with what the A’s W-L record is come the trade deadline. It’s not about whether the A’s want to be “buyers” or “sellers” — Beane has been saying for years that he doesn’t believe in that false dichotomy, and I believe him.
It’s about the fact that there’s a huge demand for him. There are a lot of teams that want an outfielder who can hit, and not many teams prepared to give one up. That will drive the offers up, and if the offers get good enough, Beane will deal no matter what the team record is.
If it gets really crazy, I could even see him dealing Holliday and Cust.
iglew - June 30, 2009
If this version of Cust is what it's going to be from here on out then yes he should be dealt
Helloooo 1st - June 30, 2009
He's had slumps before, he'll bounce back
I wish Geren would put him back to DH, though.
As for trading him, didn’t the Blue Jays have intererst in him over the off season? They have a lot of good young pitching coming up, too, so that’s likely what they’d be offering.
bobnothing - June 30, 2009
A lot of this argument
depends on the White Sox. Jermaine Dye is probably Holliday’s main “competition” for best available corner OF bat. Dye is cheaper and hitting better than Holliday (OPS+ 133 vs 118). Right now the Sox are back in contention so they may not deal Dye, but its worth watching.
I’m hoping the White Sox stay in the race leaving Holliday alone on the island.
echerrst - June 30, 2009
I totally agree!
I’m rooting for the White Sox.
Jessse - June 30, 2009
except Dye's defense is poor at best
Holliday is a far superior defender and has the added component of speed on the bases.
cityplANner - June 30, 2009
He's not much cheaper
I believe Dye is making 11 mil.
asyouwish33 - June 30, 2009
but would cost MUCH less in prospects.
But, Dye’s also a far inferior player. Dye is awful in the field. Holliday is really good in the field.
Blicks - June 30, 2009
Regardless of whether Dye or Holliday is better,
it’s definitely true that having Dye off the market is good for the A’s in terms of getting a better deal for Holliday. Go White Sox!
iglew - June 30, 2009
I think Holliday still has a lot of value
though perhaps not as much as he might have if he’d been able to quiet doubts about his non-Coors hitting.
Giambi needs to show that he isn’t well down on the downhill side of the age decline. Otherwise who will want to trade for hiim? Maybe if he DH’s more and plays 1B less that might help, but I’m not sure that’s the problem.
Cust is clearly not suited to play RF on a regular basis. He might have some trade value as a DH, however.
Despite his below average play this season Cabrera still has value as a shortstop. He probably can still produce more consistently at the plate, on a team that rests him every once in a while and has more offense than the A’s do.
Duchscherer will need the rest of what is left of this season to prove that he is physically capable of pitching…there’s simply not enough time for him to do that enough to be able to trade him.
I don’t expect big hauls this season from anyone. But I’m all for playing the younger guys.
OaklandSi - June 30, 2009
I think playing Cust in RH
is the best example of why Geren is not doing a good job. Number 2 reason is the young starter burn rate. But as for Cust…he is a disgraceful example of an outfielder. DH or bench for him.
bajablue - June 30, 2009
Meant RF
Note to self. proof read.
bajablue - June 30, 2009
to be fair, there's been interleague
and then Giambi has been DH for a few games (right, I know, that’s not ideal), so, yknow. I don’t think for a second that Cust is a decent RF, but I also don’t think that playing him here recently has been Geren’s greatest sin by a lonnnnnnnnng way.
and like, since when is the starter burn rate his fault? He gets given the team?
bobnothing - June 30, 2009
Isn't it telling?
Isn’t it telling that even if the A’s wanted to trade, they have so little of value that other teams would want? There’s Holliday, who is having a down year for whatever reason, Suzuki and then…nothing really. It tells me that this team really doesn’t have a lot of talent in their offensive unit.
1st Base: No one really wants Giambi – he’s a defensive and clubhouse morale liability plus he’s lost his bat – and I’m guessing the only value he really has is if the A’s were to release him outright and eat his salary. Someone might pick him off the waiver list.
2nd Base – Adam Kennedy has been a big plus, but you’re not going to get much of anything for him on the open market. Mark Ellis is too fragile for any team to give much for plus he earns an unsightly 10-11 million a year, some of which the A’s would have to eat. Might as well stay pat.
SS – Cabrera looks old out there. He has little value. Crosby is a fragile utlitly player who delusionally thinks he’s starting material.
3rd Base – The A’s have nothing there at all. They could use a 3rd baseman certainly and to my mind, that’s what they should pursue when they try to trade Holliday.
OF – Beyond Holliday, the A’s have nothing in the outfield anyone would want.
So I say:
1) Trade Holliday since he really does seem to have a lot of value in the eyes of other GMs I’m guessing that once he leaves the A’s, he’ll do better as well. It was just bad luck that he slumped here. He needs a change of scenery.
2) Simply dump Giambi outright and come to terms with the fact that this was a bad acquisition.
3) Don’t trade Suzuki. He has a solid future and the A’s need some continuity.
4) Keep everyone else since they aren’t worth much anyway.
5) Dump Cabrera, Cust and Crosby at the end of the year.
5) Hope the farm teams have some offensive gems that come through in the next couple of years.
Next year, the A’s will have some decent pitching, a solid 2nd baseman (if Ellis stays healthy) and catcher, whatever they get for Holliday if they trade him (hopefully a good 3rd baseman) and then a lot of question marks. IMO they will be about three offensive players away from being a contending team.
rovingralph - June 30, 2009
Mark Ellis is a huge bargain.
He the best defensive second baseman in baseball and earns about $5M/year, not $11M. If Kennedy can be sold now for anything, it’s still a net positive in comparison to what we paid for him.
jeepers - June 30, 2009
Sweeney could still net something
Young enough some will still feel he has upside. And I think he does.
bajablue - June 30, 2009
I don’t think we should be trading Sweeney.
Rated-R Superstar - June 30, 2009
+1
Why would we trade Sweeney? We need to get younger…Sweeney is already young.
winchester5 - June 30, 2009
Young is good, being good is better
The A’s need to be getting gooder, not necessarily younger.
grover - June 30, 2009
I think Ryan Sweeney can really become a really solid player and hold down the center field spot for years to come.
Rated-R Superstar - June 30, 2009
I fear the A's feel the same way.
Nico - June 30, 2009
He’s playing like it.
Rated-R Superstar - June 30, 2009
If he can add a consistant bat I'm happy w/ him
He’s made some good catches this season.
brian.only - June 30, 2009
So is Rajai Davis
Doesn’t mean it’s going to last.
Nick - June 30, 2009
Ryan Sweeney is over four years younger than Rajai Davis and Ryan Sweeney did at least have a season in which he hit .286 in.
Rated-R Superstar - June 30, 2009
Sweeney also slugged .383 and scored a -4.8 run mark for his CF defense
grover - June 30, 2009
dumping Cust
awesome Idea.
No-one would pick up one of the A’s most productive players. Oh no. He’s in a slump now, so this is totally the time to make judgements on him.
bobnothing - June 30, 2009
Now is a good time to sell
There’s a lot of competition, and no team is really out of it, so a lot of teams will be looking for any edge they can get, and very few teams will be willing to give up anything. So we could get more than usual for our players. So I would say everyone is tradeable for the right price, even guys like Suzkuki (especially considering the minor league depth behind him). I would first start with some of our Quad-A starters like Dana Eveland, who could get a good PTBNL from a team desperate for warm bodies in the rotation (Mets, Brewers).
harendaman365 - June 30, 2009
Agreed, and you bring up a good point about Eveland
He’s not good, and he doesn’t have a future with the A’s, but he should definitely garner interest, especially in this economy and in the NL. He’s a cheaper option than Washburn, and he isn’t a rental.
Maybe package him with Holliday to the Mets, although I don’t see how Eveland is better than Niese (he’s not, but Omar isn’t giving Niese starts).
91 tRA+ (98 tRA+ in limited MLB action in ‘09)
-that’s about an average #4 starter last year4.09 FIP
4.34 ERA, 1.53 K/BB (awful K/BB, but Garland got like 7MM with worse numbers, Eveland will cost his team 400K)
9-9 W-L record (stupid, but Ruben Amaro doesn’t believe in stats and the ERA is also pretty)
And the Phillies just lost Bastardo. Awful week for pitchers with cool names who spent time in the Phillies org. There’s another desperate team for you.
Blicks - June 30, 2009
Trade Eveland to a team that's obsessed with tRA!
Nico - June 30, 2009
Do the Mariners want him??
Is Graham listening?
iglew - June 30, 2009
Can we trade him directly to Lookout Landing?
GreenNGoldSooner - June 30, 2009
For a blog to be named later, sure.
Nico - June 30, 2009
LOL LOL LOL
Graham MacAree - July 6, 2009
Let's resign Big Frank to be our DH.
My 2009 Oakland A’s iron man lineup
1. Ellis 2B
2. Garciaparra 3B
3. Giambi 1B
4. Thomas DH
5. Cust RF
6. Suzuki C
7. Kennedy at SS
8. Sweeney LF
9. Davis CF
Go A’s…
MMunoz33 - June 30, 2009
iron man and garciappara in the same paragraph
(shakes head)
harendaman365 - June 30, 2009
Did you like my pun?
MMunoz33 - June 30, 2009
powell should be catcher
robbo650 - June 30, 2009
Ye-HAW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
MMunoz33 - June 30, 2009
Awesome!
Can we get Pete Reiser for CF?
DiegoSegui - June 30, 2009
Are we better off just keeping Holliday for the full season
and getting the two draft picks?
I’m sure LAA, NYY, BOS, NYM, or even CHI (Cubs) would all make a play for Matt at the end of the season…
I really wish we still had Carlos Gonzalez and Eithier!!!!!
MMunoz33 - June 30, 2009
What are the chances that a team with a protected draft pick signs Holliday in the offseason?
It wouldn’t be worth it to hold on to him if we don’t get that first rounder when he signs somewhere else.
I also don’t want to see the A’s get Burnett’ed. What other FA’s for next year are going to get a higher ranking than Holliday?
cityplANner - June 30, 2009
Burnett'ed aka CC'ed
The Tex signing killed both the Brewers and the Blue Jays.
echerrst - June 30, 2009
The Furcal signing might have messed up the Braves and the A's
I suspect the Braves were ready to move Yunel Escobar, whom Bobby Cox doesn’t like apparently, and whom I happen to quite like.
Nico - June 30, 2009
Furcal is having a rough season too.
sox1844 - June 30, 2009
I know - I'm glad the A's didn't sign him,
but sad the Braves didn’t sign him as they thought they had. Because if they had, I think Escobar MIGHT be in an A’s uni now.
Nico - June 30, 2009
Escobar's in the doghouse?
Holliday and O-cabs for Escobar+!!
cityplANner - June 30, 2009
Holy fuck, I would make love to Billy if that happened.
if he wants to, of course. ;-)
Blicks - June 30, 2009
Beane, not Bean.
mikev - June 30, 2009
good thing he didnt spell it Bene
anybody get that?
harendaman365 - June 30, 2009
Holy fuck, I would make love to Billy if that happened.
if he wants to, of course. ;-)
Blicks - June 30, 2009
Good for you
but twice? Whoa, might be a little much.
muffinpryde - June 30, 2009
In one night?
mikev - June 30, 2009
Oh, lol.
Blicks - June 30, 2009
Hey, then as an A's you'd know you had both done it to each other this year!
Nico - June 30, 2009
Looking at standings right now and potentially interested teams.
Unprotected:
Yankees (will they go after him with Teixeira and A-Roid though?)
Red Sux (if they don’t keep Bay)
LAAAA (but what will happen to Vlad)
Detroit (economy in Detroit = worst in country, but ownership is willing to spend. And, the Magglio situation)
Giants (Lincecum hits arbitration next year…and Barry Zito is still on the books)
Cardinals
Seattle (they have lots of money coming off the books and might need a big bat who also plays good defense: read: Holliday)
Protected:
Reds – (do they have the cash?)
Mets (most obvious fit, IMO)
Braves – (both expensive relievers and most likely either Vazquez is traded or Huddy walks as a FA)
Cubs – (because I think Hendry and Lou bench or release Bradley…soon)
Of course, anything could change.
Blicks - June 30, 2009
0 chance of the Reds signing Holliday to a FA contract
talk over at Redreporter is that the current leftfielders, Laynce Nix and Jonny Gomes, have a higher combined OPS than Matt Holliday. Gomes isn’t special in the field, but, without looking up numbers, I’d say Nix > Holliday in the field (Nix has been spectacular).
I’ve read the Reds made a play at DeRosa, though, and would’ve picked up his salary, so there’s certainly a chance that Holliday to the Reds could happen as a trade this year.
As an A’s fan, I would want to see Todd Frazier come over in a trade – he’s been a 3rd baseman up until this year, and he’s a great hitter. Juan Francisco is another 3rd baseman with a good stick, though he has a much higher chance of never seeing the bigs (look at his K% and BB%!).
Who would be some other Billy Beane targets?
JJ - June 30, 2009
I see Frazier as an excellent A's target
and would love to see a Holliday-Frazier deal.
Nico - June 30, 2009
Straight across?
mikev - June 30, 2009
No, part of whatever trade package that would look like
Nico - June 30, 2009
+1
I would love to get Frazier…I mean he is a ex-LLWS champ….what else could you want? lol But really he can def hit…he went to Rutgers and I saw him play…I really like his stick, and he played SS at RU and was decent….i think he could handle 3b.
winchester5 - June 30, 2009
You're right. I was over there just a bit ago.
I was just making a list of teams that could possibly, snowball’s chance in hell, sign Holliday this offseason and whether they’ll have protected pick or not. Half the teams on that list are just wild guesses who might be interested and have a legit need.
but then, Nix and Gomes are both having MASSIVE career years. And Jocketty has blocked younger, cheaper guys (Willy Taveras and his 2 year deal over MLB ready Stubbs, Ryan Hanigan, who’s putting up a solid season, has been benched for .669 OPS Ramon Hernandez [although this is Dusty] ).
If this is their true talent level, they’ve struck gold. And although Gomes’ BABIP is going to regress, I hope he can produce enough offensively to stay a fixture in MLB for a while. One of those players I really like.
Trading for Holliday would NOT be a smart baseball move for the Reds. Their pitching is going to regress, as its way outperforming peripherals. That team could contend, but putting a large amount of eggs in one basket is going to hurt more than help.
Blicks - June 30, 2009
it wouldn't be a smart baseball move, but since
rumors are that Reds strongly desire a rent-a-bat, and were close on DeRo, it could always happen.
Blicks - June 30, 2009
Reds have been known for that
either not having a plan (Bowden) or not getting long enough to stick to a plan (Dan O’Brien, Wayne Krivsky).
Dusty loves his vets – Hanigan should be the everyday catcher, and Chris Dickerson should be playing over Wily Taveras!
I would love to see Holliday in a Reds uniform, but I just can’t see it happening, and I would hate to see the prospects gone from the Reds system, though I’d love them in the A’s system!
JJ - June 30, 2009
I really think that the Giants will make a run at Holliday
either trading for him this year, or more likely, trying to pick him up in the offseason. He’s exactly what they need, they have a gaping hole in left field, he’s a right handed hitter (which suits the ballpark); in their favour, he might want to hit in the NL West, where he’s previously had success; against them, San Francisco is not part of ESPN land.
But they need to really make a push at success the next couple of years while lincecum is still affordable; though they’re carrying two pretty bad contracts (zito and rowand), the rest of the side is pretty young and affordable, so they could probably make a bid for holliday in the region he’s looking for. Whether he goes there, who knows.
In trade value, again, they have a bunch of young pitching, but they may consider untouchable the prospects that the A’s would really be interested in.
I would probably go round to Beane’s house and expose myself through the window if Fred Lewis was part of any package.
bobnothing - June 30, 2009
I could see that
but they would need to backload the crap out of that deal to work around the triple albatrosses hanging around their necks known as the Zito/Renteria/Rowand bad-contract-Hydra.
Then again, backloading a deal would leave less money around in the future to throw at Cain & Lincecum.
cityplANner - June 30, 2009
I'm not sure what ESPN land has to do with it.
Are you saying Holliday would prefer to be with a more high-visibility team? My sense is he wouldn’t. I think he wants to be with a better team, but I don’t think he craves the spotlight.
I agree that the Giants is a good fit for him. If I had to pick one team as my guess for where he ends up, that’d be my guess.
iglew - June 30, 2009
He seemed pretty enamored of the possibility of playing for the Yankees
Most players think they prefer the spotlight, at least until they have to endure it.
Nico - June 30, 2009
higher ranking than Holliday
I believe Bay is higher and maybe Huff, but not sure there is anyone else.
So at worst the A’s would get around pick 32-36 for the supplemental first and about pick 60 (or 15th pick in 2nd round) if the best record “protected pick” team were to sign him.
Or best case is pick #16 and #31.
dougald1 - June 30, 2009
If Huff is offered arbitration, my money's on him accepting.
He’s not going to get more than the 8MM he got this year on the FA market, especially if he’s type A.
Blicks - June 30, 2009
the picks are why we should get a lot for him
whoever gets him gets a great hitter and decent defender for the stretch run, plus 2 #1 picks (possibly – i see one of the contenders sign him in the offseason, so the picks shouldn’t be protected). if we deal holliday, we get a large haul. no ludwick + cards junk. we need a few top prospects. if not, you keep him and get your picks – or, given the economy, maybe resign him to a 3 year deal in the offseason.
guy incognito - June 30, 2009
In a word... No.
designatedforassignment - June 30, 2009
+1
Blicks - June 30, 2009
Great read grover....
OaktownPower - June 30, 2009
Thanks for the shout out grover
I am in fact a dude and was working on the Cardinals when the Holliday rumor hit full force so it should be ready in the next couple of days.
designatedforassignment - June 30, 2009
Nice write up!
What’s the scoop with the Duke? Will we see him after the Break? What happened to the Cardinals as trading partners for Holliday?
A'sfansince1970 - June 30, 2009
They got DeRosa and don't want to give up Wallace
which is tough luck for them.
Although they’re still in the running for Holliday, just not as likely as before the DeRo trade.
Blicks - June 30, 2009
On a Mets deal...
News today that Carlos Beltran’s knee isn’t better. Beltran traveled to Vail, Colorado to see the doctor who performed surgery on ARod’s hip, and who pioneered microfracture surgery in the 1990s, leading to speculation that Beltran needed microfracture surgery and, thus, that his season was over and career in jeopardy.
Folks are walking back that speculation, but the word now is that Beltran’s injury will keep him out until after the All-Star break. I see this affecting trade talks with the A’s in two ways:
1) If Beltran is really out for the season, the Mets might just punt 2009, taking them out of the Holliday sweepstakes;
2) If they think Beltran might return, they’ll be unwilling to give up FMart (who’s starting in CF for them, fielding well and hitting like pre-June Rajai) without an adequate replacement.
So, here’s my thinking: the A’s target FMart and Murphy, and offer Holliday + Sweeney + a 3rd piece — maybe Eveland, maybe one of the lower-minors catchers (whom they’ll replace when they sign Stassi!), maybe something a little better if necessary (Wuertz?). Holliday is a big upgrade in LF as grover points out; Sweeney is a big offensive upgrade over FMart, and a good 4th OF when Beltran returns, which they’ll need if Beltran’s knee is less than 100%.
The Mets would get a 1-year-rental + picks (of the chance to sign Holliday without losing a pick), a useful young OF, plus some kind of lagniappe. The A’s would get the rough equivalent of CarGon back (except younger) plus a useful young 3B.
Nick - June 30, 2009
Oh, forgot to add...
If this hypothetical deal were to go down, the A’s would call up Cunningham and go Cunningham-FMart-Buck in the OF for the rest of the season, unless they though Martinez really needed time in AAA in which case they could start Rajai (yeah, I know, but it just for a few months and he’s been a good hitter lately) in CF instead.
Nick - June 30, 2009
I think the Phillies' continued stumbles preclude the Mets punting the season,
so this setback seems only to make it more likely the Mets will go hard after a hitter. Should be a good time to talk to them about Holliday.
Nico - June 30, 2009
I don't like that.
As outlined in my Mets piece I really don’t think that Fmart is going anywhere. A big part of Minaya’s motivation is political in an attempt to keep his job and the Mets have been pushing Fmart as the savior for some time now and Murphy has popularity from his hot streak as a rookie. The original deal i proposed was Fmart plus low level C grade throw in for Holliday, therefore your deal is Sweeney and Eveland for Murphy? That doesn’t make much sense. Murphy might not even be a substantial upgrade over Hannahan at 3b.
designatedforassignment - June 30, 2009
I haven't analyzed Murphy's hitting stats in detail or anything
but he hit very well in A in 2007, very well in AA in 08, then very well with the Mets last year, as well. So unless his BABIPs have been unusually high or something, he’s got a track record of being a very productive hitter. As far as Hannahan is concerned, he’s 5 years older than Murphy and Murphy’s OPS is 100 point higher this year. Murphy is already a better hitter than Miley and I don’t see any reason to think he’ll suddenly lose 100 points of OPS when he’s put at his natural position (3B) and left alone to hit.
FMart I admit I know less about, but a 20 year old who can handle playing CF in the majors has talent, at least, and he’d have tons of time to develop even if the A’s stashed him in the minors for a while.
As far as equity in the deal goes…I’m not wedded to this formula. Maybe it’s too weighted towards the Mets and Beane would want to get something else of value from NY. But I do think deals need to meet real needs on both sides. The A’s need a good CF prospect who’s not playing in Vancouver, and they need a 3B. The Mets need a bat and could really use a CF/4th OF. That’s my basis for thinking some kind of deal could get made. Hell, if Beane can persuade Omar to take Holliday and Rajai for Murphy, FMart, and another decent prospect, more power to him.
Nick - June 30, 2009
Quick note on CF
I know that the A’s have Brown in AA, but as exciting as he can be, he’s anything but a sure thing, given his high K rates, age relative to the league, and recent injuries.
Nick - June 30, 2009
When you say
“but a 20 year old who can handle playing CF in the majors has talent,” I can’t help but think of Carlos Gonzalez who, give or take a year, fit that exact description.
Nico - June 30, 2009
Pls dont bring him up- those last few days were hard to watch.
brian.only - June 30, 2009
Except CarGon is 23, 3 years older than FMart
Nick - June 30, 2009
Wasn't he 21 when he was called up to the A's?
That was the comparison I was making.
Nico - June 30, 2009
CarGon debuted on 5/30/08
and was born 10/17/85, making him 22 at the time.
FMart was born 10/10/88, so he’s 20 right now.
Nick - June 30, 2009
Lets look at that
I think the A’s would have to get a Reese Havens/Ruben Tejada or more back in order for that work. The other thing to remember is that the Mets have plenty of fourth/fifth outfielder types, Jeremy Reed, Angel Pagan, FMart now.
The problem with Murphy is this year his offense has not been excellent and he is suppose to be a butcher at third. I suggest you go to the Mets trade thread on why Murphy might not be a significant upgrade on Hannahan.
designatedforassignment - June 30, 2009
I don't care about trades (or FAs). I like fewer and fewer of Beane's decisions.
I’m just here to spank grover.
Poppy - June 30, 2009
And we're all here to watch, Poppy.
Nick - June 30, 2009
I was hoping to get baseballgirl
I didn’t think I’d be lucky enough for you to offer.
Sweet.
grover - June 30, 2009
Bad luck that it's 67MARQUEZ' day,
but you’ll enjoy his spankings. Trust me.
Nico - June 30, 2009
This is a bit OT but-
What ever happened to Gallagher?
brian.only - June 30, 2009
Here
lulz
Gallagher's Watermelons - June 30, 2009
On a different trade note...
“3. Garrett Atkins started at third base for the Rockies on Monday, rather than Ian Stewart, and manager Jim Tracy says it’s because of how Atkins is hitting. What Tracy can’t say is that it makes sense for him to play Atkins to help rebuild the infielder’s trade value; the Rockies need bullpen help, and if Atkins hits over the next couple of weeks, Colorado could deal from its infield depth and get a reliever.”
Garrett Atkins for Springer and Gray! Do it to it, Lars!
Gallagher's Watermelons - June 30, 2009
God, no.
Nick - June 30, 2009
BUT HE HIT US SO WEL!!!111
DIDN’T U SEE???? That was actually quite irritating.
Nico - June 30, 2009
Dye isn't the only other OF rumored to be available...
Vernon Wells and Alex Rios are also supposedly being shopped. Just mentioning this because it somewhat lowers the market value for Holliday.
Terk - June 30, 2009
Vernon Wells and Alex Rios don't lower the market value for Holliday
Contract status.
Wells and Rios ain’t going nowhere.
Vernon Wells’ contract is Barry Zito bad.
Alex Rios is making a good chunk of change for multiple years as well, and the Jays aren’t going to eat salary just to get rid of him. They’d only move him if they could do so without having to eat any salary, since the only reason they want to move him is to free up money to extend Halladay.
Blicks - July 2, 2009
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