Athletics Nation

Let's play some real games!!!

I wasn’t a big fan of today’s lineup… but let’s get this season goin’!

brenarlo - April 4, 2009 reply

Cabrera #2, Cust #6 = me no likey

Cust came up in the 1st with the bases loaded and one out, and struck out, and showed exactly why the end of the heart of the order is not the right place for him. He should, IMO, bat #2 and if not #2 then #3. As long as bats ahead of Holliday, Giambi, Chavez, I’m fine with it. And Cabrera should be batting 9th.

I think Geren put Cust 6th

cause he makes the least amount of contact. And OC #2 since he does make a lot of contact. Not saying I agree with it but I think thats his reasoning.

Or maybe Cust doesn't feel as comfortable at #2.

I don't think Cust changes much no matter what

the situation or spot in the batting order – he’s not someone who is best served by adjusting, just best served by being used in a way that maximizes his skills and minimizes his weaknesses. #6 is better than #4 or #5, but I think #2 and #3 are the best spots for him.

We don't know that he's impervious to these things. He could be a sensitive soul.

As much as he was jerked around the first 6 years of his career

I kinda doubt the sensitive soul bit.

mikev - April 5, 2009 reply

1.) CF — R. Sweeney
2.) DH — J. Cust
3.) LF — M. Holliday
4.) 1B — J. Giambi
5.) 3B — E. Chavez
6.) SS — O. Cabrera
7.) C — K. Suzuki
8.) 2B — M. Ellis
9.) RF — T. Buck

Rated-R Superstar - April 4, 2009 reply

Switch Buck and OC

Buck is just a better all around offensive player.

+1

brenarlo - April 4, 2009 reply

I would, but that would mean that three straight hitters would be left-handed hitters and four of the first five are already left-handed hitters.

Rated-R Superstar - April 4, 2009 reply

Well the lineup with be very different vs a lefty.

My lineup, if Cabrera HAS to bet #2 because

the A’s are just so convinced he should bat #2:

Sweeney – CF
Cabrera – SS
Cust – DH
Holliday – LF
Giambi – 1B
Chavez – 3B
Suzuki – C
Buck – RF
Ellis – 2B

Switch Ellis and Buck if it floats your boat.

LOOGYs

Our bench is Crosby, Davis, Powell, and Nomar. As long as Nomar is available to PH for one of those guys, we have some protection against a good bullpen.

You still have 3 straight lefties -- Buck, Sweeney and Cust with 4 of 5 lefties

True, I wasn’t looking at it with that angle.

Rated-R Superstar - April 4, 2009 reply

Listening to the radio broadcast

they were talking about how “Cabrera may be the best #2 hitter in baseball.”

I was choking . . .

eastcoasta'sfan - April 4, 2009 reply

I rarely disagree with Ken, but

when he says, “Cabrera is the perfect #2 hitter” I want to scream (as I did today), “No, the perfect #2 hitter has a good OBP!!!”

Who would you say is the best no.2 hitter in the league?

I’d have argued Jeter over his career, but I don’t have stats to back that up.

Pedroia or Youkilis is pretty solid

its pretty safe to say we'll see 100 different

lineups throughout the season so all of this really doesn’t matter…but no to cust at 2….do you see adam dunn batting 2nd? – no….O cab, ellis or suzuki and spread out the lineup with cust batting 6th or 7th

ryanmoser - April 4, 2009 reply

Suzuki did well at the 2 spot last year.

A lot of managers do a lot of "by the book" stuff that doesn't actually help a team win

Big-budget teams with stacked lineups can afford to make bad lineup decisions. The A’s will need to wring every ounce of productivity out of the team to compete. Cust is one of the A’s most productive hitters — he gets on base a lot and has excellent power. Batting him 7th instead of 2nd will cost him about 75 plate appearances, which will cost the A’s runs.

I wouldn’t bat him 2nd against a lefty, but no righthanded starter would rather face Cust than Cabrera.

Against a RHP, the OBP difference between Cust and Cabrera is huge,

as is the SLG. No way should Cabrera ever bat #2 vs. RHP.

Yeah, that's what I was saying, but in a pretty confusing way

We did see Brian Downing batting leadoff, and Jeremy Giambi

We also saw Mark McGwire batting 2nd and Carlton Fisk. It’s not unheard of to have a slow slugger in one of the top 2 spots.

Anderson

Gave up zero extra base hits (and I think Sandoval’s hit was the only non-grounder) and didn’t walk anyone until Torres in the sixth (the last batter he faced). That was a remarkable and efficient performance. More like this, please.

Jack Cust hit that ball real hard.

vegAN ryAN - April 4, 2009 reply

Wish I coulda seen that Cust HR.

I didn't really like the lineup today

And I would be surprised if today wasn’t the opening day lineup. But since lineups don’t make too much a difference except to player’s egos, Geren is letting veterans play where they’re used to. Cabrera could take offense to hitting 7th-9th and when it’s in a situation where it doesn’t make too much difference, better to keep everyone happy. Anyway, since I’m bored my ideal lineup (assuming no Nomar at SS):
Buck
Cust
Holliday
Giambi
Chavez
Kurt
Sweeney
Ellis/Cabrera
Ellis/Cabrera

Also, it seems like Devine is going to the 60-day DL.

vignette17 - April 4, 2009 reply

And Duke and Copeland to the 15-day per Slusser.

I like your lineup.

"since lineups don’t make too much a difference except to player’s egos"

That’s a really good point. I love the idea of Cust as #2 as much as anyone, but for all our fascination with what the studies demonstrate about lineup positions, we tend to forget that the same studies also demonstrate that the difference is negligible. All the lineup analysis stories always make that caveat right there in front, but in our eagerness to debate lineups we prefer to ignore it.

If occupying a certain slot in the lineup makes a player happy, that’s probably more important than the tiny effect on run probability.

I'm not sure the difference between a given hitter batting #2 and #6 is negligible

The importance of the order may be overstated, but the difference just in # of plate appearances in a season isn’t.

From Sky Kalkman's

article about “The Book”, on BtB:

the difference between an optimized lineup and a typical, mildly foolish one you’ll see MLB teams use is only about one win over 162 games

Swapping the #2 and #6 is a subset of that, so it is some fraction of a win over the course of a season.

To determine whether that statement is accurate, you have to go through the article, the referenced articles, the math, the logic, the assumptions, et cetera. Just because some young guy makes a claim doesn’t make it so.

I find it ironic that “lineup optimization” used to assume that hitting in different positions in the lineup were the same. Now that’s changing but nobody goes back to all the bold statements made, including the usual attacks on the intelligence of managers, and says gosh, maybe we were wrong.

Lovejoy - April 5, 2009 reply

Nice AAA reserve

Gio and Mazzaro— and Simmons and Williams, right?

Barton-Hannahan-Denorfia-Pennington isn’t a bad quarter for when the inevitable injuries occur.

jasonthea - April 4, 2009 reply

And Edgar.

And I expect there to be no injuries.

And Cunningham?

And Doolittle?

I bet Sean Doolittle starts the year in AAA.

OkayJay81 - April 4, 2009 reply

Me too.

In the AFL he played a good amount of RF too.

Syphon - April 5, 2009 reply

Injuries

My thoughts, assuming everyone does OK in AAA…

Giambi injured: Barton comes up
Cabrera, Ellis, Crosby: Pennington
Chavez, Garciaparra: Hannahan
Powell, Suzuki: the new guy, what’s ’is name.
Davis, Sweeney, Buck, Holiday: Denorfia
Cust: Barton (because Giambi then moves to DH)

richwol1 - April 4, 2009 reply

Best thing about today's in-stadium experience

In the middle of the third inning, the announcer (not Roy Steele, who I hope is resting his pipes for the home opener) said “Giants fans! We have a special edition of the Great Cap Caper just for you!” . Just like the usual Great Cap Caper except instead of three A’s caps, there was ….. one Giants cap. And, at the end, there was no ball, and the screen said “WRONG AGAIN!”. The Giants fans in front of us did not appreciate the implication.

Englishmajor - April 4, 2009 reply

hahaha

Cheezombie - April 4, 2009 reply

Good news that Gallagher made the roster and Hannahan didn't.

In slightly off topic news, why does the new Yankee Stadium look exactly like the old one? Why bother moving if you’re just going to build the same ugly stadium across the road?

I think the complaints about Yankee Stadium

had to do with facilities (mainly bathrooms and concessions). I’ve heard stories about 3-inning lines at the bathroom, endless concession lines. And there wasn’t room to improve the facilities. I’d also bet that they created some obscenely expensive luxury suites.

Also the old stadium prices were too low

I figured that much,

it’s just you think they’d get like an architect with vision in or something – Yankee Stadium was horrid to look at and so is the new one. If you’re spending a $1bn on a stadium I’d want it to be stunning to look at as well as all singing all dancing in terms of amenities.

It's still the South Bronx

richwol1 - April 4, 2009 reply

Also completely random, cos I'm in one of those moods:

Hands up if you were playing football on a Premier League pitch this afternoon AND won the office sweepstakes in the Grand National. Oh yes it’s been a good day.

By weird coincidence,

I actually had my hand up when I read this post. (I was stretching.)

But no, I didn’t do either of those things.

Yeah it's a random comment, it's the insomnia.

Why can’t the A’s be playing at 7pm pst like they usually do, then I’d have something to do!

I was playing soccer on the Gilman fields this evening, does that count?

gigglingone - April 4, 2009 reply

Did your team win?

You certainly have energy, after all the a.m. work.

LibrariAN - April 4, 2009 reply

Special sale of game-used merch at the NotExactlyFanFest tomorrow

In the C Gate (?) store — the one near the south parking lot. They were also on sale today and I saw some of the items as I trudged up to Will Call. Jerseys from Mecir, Rincon, and Dotel…..not really sure why someone would want them, except perhaps as assurances that since the jerseys were in the stands, the former owners of them would not be coming out of the A’s bullpen ever again.

Englishmajor - April 4, 2009 reply

Question

Why is/was so much of AN higher on Cahill than Anderson?

baetown415 - April 4, 2009 reply

I'm higher on Anderson, m'self

I think Cahill will be very good, but with high BB numbers, while Anderson will be very, very good with a great BB/K ratio.

Basically, I think Cahill will be Miguel Batista (circa 2001-03) before he’s Brandon Webb (ceiling), while Anderson will be “Mark Buehrle with a slightly better fastball” before he’s “Mark Buehrle with a slightly better fastball.”

My impression is that AN is much higher on Anderson than Cahill.

The Roto links, on the other hand, suggest that the front office is higher on Cahill, which always seemed odd to me, in contrast to AN, where Anderson is clearly preferred.