Athletics Nation

You sure?

Geren said he hasn’t settled on a batting order but he’s kicked around several things, including the possibility of hitting Cust second, with Holliday third and Giambi cleanup.

No, I'm not positive...

And, I’m sure Geren has “kicked around the idea.” That is exactly the order 2 through 4 I’d bat them. Why is he just “kicking it around?” Do you think that’s the order the A’s will send out on Opening Day? I don’t.

The article says he was considering it

Is there any reason to think he’s now ruled it out?

I would also guess that Geren does not have unilateral control over the opening day lineup.

I think it's more that you don't bother to commit to a lineup

until you know who all the players are. Let’s see if (hopefully) the lineup is, on April 6th, as we expect it to be.

Against LHP switch Chavvy for Nomar

At least at the beginning of the season I want Chavvy resting as much as possible. Past that, I like it (if we’re insisting on putting Cabrera near the top of the order some times).

True - you could also argue

that Ellis should bat higher against LHP, but I’m going on the more conservative assumption that Ellis might not hit great right away (if he’s going to hit great in 2009).

I like your willingness to compromise

but the numbers you posted really suggest you shouldn’t. Cabrera is close to equally capable against lefties and righties. At a minimum, I think you’d need to look for another right handed hitter to bat second, because Cust is genuinely worse against lefties. I’d rather see Zook or Ellis second than Cabrera.

Still, I think Cust is the best option for the second spot regardless of handedness.

I think your willingness to compromise

is a sign of weakness – if the so-called brains behind the A’s operation won’t crack on this, i say filibuster! Let’s see if they can get 60 votes!

Hot Cup Joe - March 8, 2009 reply

LOL - to jeepers, the premise of this piece is

“The A’s are determined to bat Cabrera #2 more than never.” Were it up to me, he’d be my #9 hitter 162 times.

No, it isn't.

Your mind reading skills suck.

I definitely agree that Cust should bat as early in the order as possible. I cant even begin to count the times I watched him strikeout with runners on, when we could have been taking leads, padding leads, or starting rallies.

chillicothe20 - March 8, 2009 reply

I'm even starting to warm up to him batting leadoff.

Just so his strikeouts bother me as little as possible.

And I can't even begin to count the number of times

the rest of the A’s offense didn’t even have runners on, not take leads, not pad leads, or not start rallies. Point of the matter is Cust’s 30+ HRs and 100+ BBs far outweigh the negative value of his K’s. He was a way better hitter than anyone else on the 2008 A’s.

On second thought, maybe you're being sarcastic

in which case, I don’t want anybody to read your comment and actually believe it. But you can ignore my last post.

And then there was 2007...

I cant even begin to count the times I watched him strikeout with runners on, when we could have been taking leads, padding leads, or starting rallies.

Cust’s career splits:

None on: .221/.370/.439
Men on: .260/.396/.516

Vs. RHP

You’d have four lefties and one righty in the heart of the lineup, so I can understand why you’d want to mix it up with another righty in there, but you want OBP more.

I agree wholeheartedly that Cust should be batting second.

NateHST - March 8, 2009 reply

In a different year yes

but I think with Garciaparra on the bench (if healthy, a big if) that doesn’t matter as much.

You also won't be facing RHP the entire game

I don’t want to make life too easy for managers to throw a LOOGY as a LTOGY (three out guy).

I’d bat Cust second in the lineup, but I’d bat Sweeney atop the lineup as well.

Rated-R Superstar - March 8, 2009 reply

but, but, but...

Nico doesn’t like Sweeney, so he’ll always put him at the bottom of the order.

Buck when healthy is a better hitter than Sweeney

Unless Sweeney develops a power stroke he is a nice singles hitter, nothing more. Buck is a great doubles hitter. If he hits like he can (i.e. not like the beginning of 2008), he is more deserving of the leadoff spot. Sweeney needs to show his ST power is for real before I’d move him up.

The "unless" part is a key consideration

Sweeney is still very young, at 24. He has lots of room to grow.

And if he does, you can always, you know, change the lineup

But right now (and likely in 4 weeks), Buck is a better hitter. He should bat first and Sweeney shouldn’t.

thejd44 - March 8, 2009 reply

well, technically, in 2009...

Sweeney has been a better hitter than Buck. But, of course, it’s ST and all.

Like I said

Couldn’t care less who bats first opening day. I don’t think there’s data that suggests any meaningful difference between the two, especially given the suckfest Buck had for most of last season until turning it around late, but if Buck’s better in your eyes, it’s fine by me.

Buck's been a better professional player. It's not just "in my eyes." It's in real life history, too.

thejd44 - March 8, 2009 reply

Most of the season?

especially given the suckfest Buck had for most of last season until turning it around late

Buck was absolutely awful for the first 3 weeks of the season. After April 18th, he hit .278/.356/.544 in 101 PA in the majors. I guess one could say he sucked in AAA, but 1) he was rehabbing for much of his AAA stint, and 2) .300/.400/.400 does not suck.

AAA stats don't count when he sucks?

only when he’s better than Sweeney? LOL

That's not actually even a little bit close to what Danny said

thejd44 - March 8, 2009 reply

In fairness, it was pretty close physically

Actually, Foolsh, I just prefer Sweeney in an RBI spot

A high-average singles hitter is a good guy to have up with RISP.

Right on...

Why Buck over Sweeney at the top in both line-ups? I still like Buck, but would put Sweeney atop the order because of his consistent track-record and slightly more confidence.

greenpaddedgloves - March 8, 2009 reply

I view that slot as a meritocracy

I don’t care which one gets it in April, but the one performing best better have it by the beginning of May.

exactly...

I don’t mind Buck leading off in April. He may be very good at it. But, if Sweeney continues to rake through April, Geren better move him up past guys like Ellis, Cabrera, Chavez (who I think will struggle) and maybe even Zooks (who I actually expect to perform and like where Nico has him).

Year by year comparison

Buck’s career: great, great, awesome, bad.
Sweeney’s career: good, decent, decent, good, bad, good.

Even Buck's "bad" season ends with a "great" stretch

Buck's definately a better hitter, he's just fragile.

OldhamA - March 8, 2009 reply

funny

thats what we said about Crosby…

Not that Buck IS the OF version of Crosby, it just reminded me of him.

DyeLongJustice - March 8, 2009 reply

Except Crosby was never very good when he was good

thejd44 - March 8, 2009 reply

He had an .875 OPS for like 2 months.

mikev - March 8, 2009 reply

ah, but there you are highlighting his inconsitency, so really he should bat 9th

They're both good hitters whose projected track record is a bit unknown,

so I’m starting with “who is better suited to the leadoff spot?” Buck is faster, Sweeney is a good RISP candidate, and both have similar career OBPs vs. RHP. So I’d put Buck leadoff initially and see how it develops.

yeah

it actually wouldn’t surprise me if both of them do better than a healthy Chavez, with Sweeney ending up at #5 or vice versa.

Though I suspect the one thing Chavez will maintain

is a strong OBP. Just based on how much he walked when he was batting as a cripple; teams just don’t itch to throw strikes to him.

Buck is faster?

Quite a bit, actually

Huh.

I’d have never guessed by their stats, as Sweeney went 9 for 10 in steals in 115 games last year, while Buck has stolen half as many (well, five). No reason to doubt it, though—speed’s not hard to measure, and stealing bases isn’t necessarily about speed.

not hard to measure, but has it been?

Based on watching both run to first base, I’d say Buck is faster, but I don’t know about the “quite a bit.”

Right - Buck really does have a lot more raw speed

Sweeney appears to be a good baserunner and he actually got on base last year, which helps.

well, we differ here...

Buck’s career… very good, terrible.

Sweeney’s career: bad (SSS), bad (SSS), great (regular playing time)

2009 Spring Training: Sweeney’s better.

So, your opinion is based on randomly excluding minor league stats?

That seems like something that’s important to know, so that we can weigh it properly.

I judge major leaguers on their major league stats... yes

a great minor leaguer can always be a bust. See, Ben Grieve. Bobby Crosby. Weren’t they both supposed to be the second coming of The Natural?

You should judge young major leaguers with a limited track record on more than just a SSS of major league ststs

Also, his 2008 was hardly great. I like Sweeney, but people here are getting carried away.

thejd44 - March 8, 2009 reply

no, there are very few that are getting "carried away"

I see a lot more “naysayers.” Mostly, stat guys who don’t see the forest for the trees.

I've never liked that saying

Someone who can’t see the forest for the trees will eventually get through the forest. Someone who can’t see the trees in the forest won’t see the path and will never get through.

As for the Sweeney/Buck debate, neither has really proven themselves. Buck struggles to stay healthy and struggled in his second year bad enough to lose his spot is a really crappy offense. Sweeney did “okay” but nothing special that would have gone mostly unnoticed had it not been for a really crappy offense. If anything, Barton, Cunningham & Denorfia should be added to the equation (of the roster spot, not the lineup position) and the best two make the team and then you can discuss where they bat.

Barton has no shot...

because of Giambi. Denorfia is just totally unrealistic. He has no shot of playing for the A’s, at all, this year barring simultaneous injuries to Sweeney, Davis and Cunningham. Cunningham may be an up and down replacement player this year.

Never say never when it comes to A's injuries...

I’d guess that Denorfia is an insurance policy — one that we can draw on, or sell/trade to another team. It would be helpful if he played well in the WBC to give at least a few GMs the idea of getting him as a 4th OF. Some contending team is going to lose an OF to injury at some point this year, and as long as it’s not the Slegna (or, hypothetically, the Rangers or M’s), I imagine Billy might get on the phone asking for one of their prospects and expecting Denorfia’s name to come up in the discussion.

true...

very true, indeed. So, I’ll amend my statement because it was a little rash. Barton probably has a chance of playing 81 games or more at 1st base because I have no confidence that Giambi will stay healthy all season.

Denorfia, on the other hand, I’d be surprised if he sees 5 games for the A’s this year. Really surprised.

I agree that Denorfia is pretty far down the OF depth chart

but I’m still happy that he’s there, even if his appearance in an A’s’ uni would indicate massive injuries again. Also, if Marcus McBeth (sorry, Marcus Scottish Play) were on the A’s, he’d be even lower on the BP depth chart than Denorfia is on the OF chart!

You forgot to advise Foolshgame22 that

if his statement was a little rash, he should have tried a little ointment.

as a father of a 3 year old and 4 month old...

I am all too familiar with the need for frequent ointment application.

As the lover to an 86 year old and 92 year old, me too

is that goat years?

do they get jealous of each other

Nico?

Trainman - March 8, 2009 reply

They're both just hard of hearing enough

that I can pull off the ol’ “Jack Tripper.”

LOL

Trainman - March 8, 2009 reply

Missing my point

Neither Sweeney nor Buck have done anything particularly special in the last year or so to suggest they’re well above those three other players. Now, all things equal, is Denorfia at the bottom of the list, sure. But if Cunningham and Barton stand out more than Buck & Sweeney, I’d stick Cunningham in Center, Cust into the outfield and Barton at first. To throw Barton out simply on the basis that Sweeney & Buck are better seems out of reach because none of them have done to deserve it. Which is why for a team “going for it” I’d pick the best 2 out of the 5 based on now and flip them around mid-season if they fail.

well, on that we most definitely agree...

I want them to play the best players they have. Makes sense since it will give the A’s the best chance to win.

Which means, if Cahill, Anderson and/or Mazzaro are better than Gio and Braden or Eveland, we’d play them, right?

A qualified yes

It’s not quite the same issue. None of SMAC has any real AAA time under their belt. I’d prefer they get that time. Gio, Braden & Eveland all have basically proven themselves at the AAA level and, to varying degrees, the Majors. Having said that, if anyone of SMAC consistently blows away opponents in Spring Training without floundering AND BEG all fail miserably, then I’d give SMAC their shot. But for me it’s really a situation where they HAVE to fail big for that to happen.

well, I was giving them all of April to fail or make the sale...

respectively. I don’t see more than one of the MAC making the rotation out of ST. On the other hand, I don’t see any of Barton, Denorfia or Cunningham making the 25-man out of ST. And, it’s not because any of them rake or not in ST. It’s just the way the roster is built. Ain’t happening.

That I can agree on completely

DMOAS - March 9, 2009 reply

As far as the A's were concerned, Ben Grieve worked out exceptionally well

yes, he was great...

brought a Championship to the team with his awesomeness!

Oh wait.

Grieve

Ben Grieve was actually a good hitter when he was with the A’s. Why do people find that so hard to grasp? Because he grounded into double plays or because he was a poor fielder?

By your logic Giambi and Tejada were also pretty useless here because we didn’t win a championship with them either. The big three as well. Actually why don’t we just say that everyone who played for the A’s after 1989 were rubbish.

DeJay - March 9, 2009 reply

Because of his career

I think people think of Grieve as a failure because of his post-Athletics career, actually. Many of us (I am guilty of this as well) think that when someone wins a ROY, they should turn into Junior Griffey, or at least Nomar at his peak. I remember thinking that Walt Weiss was going to be one of the greatest SS ever when he won the ROY in 1988 (hey, I was 9 and they had just gone to the WS, I thought it was always going to be like that). So I think Grieve’s post-Athletics time, where he lost much of his power and never looked good in the field makes people think “failure”, although as you say, he was a perfectly decent low-price hitter with the A’s.

el generico - March 9, 2009 reply

I agree

The entire point of having Cust in your lineup, is the hope that a pitcher will mess up and place a pitch right in Cust’s wheelhouse.

If Cust is in front of Giambi, Holliday, and Chavez it’s going to force pitchers to think long and hard about pitching around Cust which should be beneficial for both Cust’s average and his strike outs.

Threepwood XX - March 8, 2009 reply

Very good reasoning

Also, in the 2nd spot his strike outs are less likely to shut down an good inning.

Eastbayjim - March 8, 2009 reply

Walks and Shots

The ideal #2 hitter.

RLangford - March 8, 2009 reply

Do they get a shot of tequila at 1st if they walk?

Eastbayjim - March 8, 2009 reply

I like Cust in the 2-hole...

but I also like Giambi in the 3-hole, for many of the same reasons why you want Cust to bat second.

I think Giambi’s high OBS and low batting average warrant him the 3-hole. When either Cust or Giambi walk… Holliday, with his better average, can drive them in.

The drawback of course is that you’d have Buck, Cust, and Giambi at the top and they’re all lefties.

Yes but when the opposition least expects it we PH for Buck with Nomar or Denorfia!

They’ll fall right into our trap!

WaddellCanseco - March 8, 2009 reply

And Rajai for Holliday -

surprise triples masheeeeeeeen!

Calendar Says

March 8

I think there’s plenty of time for Beane and Geren to get to the right place. They know the numbers better than the rest of us.

windyfelix - March 8, 2009 reply

I'd like a talking claendar, but hope it will say more than March 8

FCUK OLIVER PEREZ

thank god he doesnt pitch for the A’s, I hate his 1st inning fastball pancakes

ATarHeel - March 8, 2009 reply

Someone's made a smutty joke about the title, right?

OldhamA - March 8, 2009 reply

Oh, sure, ruin baseball discussion with your jokes

Asshole.

thejd44 - March 8, 2009 reply

batphone

from YAHOO! corporate overlord rings.

Putting any type of bat in the #2 hole sounds pretty painful...

DeJay - March 9, 2009 reply

Cabrera shouldn't bat in the #2 hole, but it seems he is a #2 hole (there you go, OldhamA)

Seriously though, I’d prefer starting Nomar at third against lefties. In that case, you bat him second.

thejd44 - March 8, 2009 reply

at the rate Chavez is going Nomar starts everyday

I'd just slot Nomar into the #6 spot

and drop Suzuki to #7. Nomar doesn’t walk enough to bat 2nd, IMO.

And Cabrera does?

thejd44 - March 8, 2009 reply

I think

Nico’s point was he doesn’t want cabrerra at #2, but in the spirit of fraternite he is willing to allow geren to bat him there against lefties only.

Yeah, the subtext of this post is

“DO NOT BAT CABRERA #2 AGAINST RHP UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES!!!!!” Versus LHP he’s at least decent.

I don't get why the A's would bat him second at all

There’s no point in presenting this compromise if the A’s want him batting second (because then they’d be compromising with the fans, which is stupid even if the fans are right). If they’re compromising with Cabrera, who demands to bat second or something, then this is my first “I told you so” with regards to him being a colossal jerk.

thejd44 - March 8, 2009 reply

If that were the case

Then they could always tell him to STFU or else Crosby plays. We swear, we’ll do it. And you know what’ll happen if we do. So don’t make us. Please. Don’t make us. For the love of Baseball, DON’T!!!

Fuck compromise

Cabrera is strictly worse than Jack Cust as a hitter. Any lineup in which he is batting in front of Cust is one which is provably stupid.

Agree - although against LHP

the OBP and slugging are closer than one might think.

Until the righty relievers come into the game.

Pass.

Let me be sure

It sounds like you’re saying Cabrera shouldn’t hit #2.

No

He’s just saying he really doesn’t like compromise.

So says the guy that the batting order doesn't matter...

ok... here's what i meant to say...

So says the guy who thinks that the batting order doesn’t matter…

It doesn't matter as long as the manager doesn't do patently idiotic things like hit Orlando Cabrera second

It’s easy to make lineup order matter if you’re deliberately trying not to score runs, which is basically what batting Cabrera second is designed to do.

I think the evidence about batting order

is that it matters to the extent that it affects plate appearances — that is, the #2 hitter will get more PA’s than the #6 hitter, and if the #2 hitter is worse than the #6 hitter, that’s bad. But I don’t think there’s any evidence that high contact hitters are better or worse, all other things being equal, at #2 than low-contact hitters.

And I think the implied point about batting order

is not that it doesn’t matter, just that it matters more whether you have relatively good or bad hitters to put in whatever order floats your boat.

ziggy getting knocked around by venezuela

carlos guillen home run, jose lopez double, still no outs.

xbhaskarx - March 8, 2009 reply

Can't remember the last time he gave up back-to-back extra base hits

I guess it’s coming at a decent time, but that’s a rough start for him.

single by ramon hernandez

they said he’s throwing too hard, no sink.

xbhaskarx - March 8, 2009 reply

Settle down, Ziggy

There's the DP

Double play, and a nice play to end the inning.

That’s more like it.

Dunn just hit a ball about 850 feet to right.

Wow.

mikev - March 8, 2009 reply

That thing was absolutely destroyed

too bad dunn is lazy and doesn't enjoy playing baseball

xbhaskarx - March 8, 2009 reply

I'm SO glad that we didn't get that guy.

mikev - March 8, 2009 reply

yeah, I agree...

Nomah is a future HOFer. Glad Billy picked him up, instead.

I don't think Nomar gets into the Hall

His peak years were too few and he’s had too many post-prime seasons of mediocrity/obscurity. Plus, there’s the obvious PED cloud surrounding him (that SI cover from many years back could come back to haunt him).

thejd44 - March 8, 2009 reply

I guess my sarcasm wasn't quite strong enough...

but, yes, I agree with all of that.

Sorry, on a second read it is obvious

thejd44 - March 8, 2009 reply

AFAIK the A's haven't announced what Nomar's getting paid

but Dunn signed with the Nats for 2/$20, which has got to be a lot more money than whatever the A’s are paying Nomar. I doubt that Beane would/could have signed Dunn, except he had X dollars assigned to signing Garciaparra and passed up the opportunity.

Dunn also doesn't backup Chavez and possibly Ellis

that's what Crosby and Hannahan are for...

;-)

IIRC, Nomar is getting paid something like $1.5mil

plus some graduated incentives for plate appearances and games played that could get him upwards of 2mil.

It was in something at the Chronicle I believe

IIRC for something like 1.5 mil plus incentives for games appeared in.

Snelling (Doyle was it?) just went yard for Australia.

Boy can hit.

OldhamA - March 8, 2009 reply

Twice.

Doyle’s a FA too. I wouldn’t mind him as a backup OF assuming he could play CF. I mean he’d likely be injured before Nomah but I have always liked Doyle.

http://twitter.com/keithlaw

Injury-prone?

He’ll fit right in.

Leopold Bloom - March 8, 2009 reply

keith law on twitter

likely wrong but nice to hear since he’s not always high on As prospects

might prefer Brett Anderson to Dan Haren by the end of this year.

Asfan4ever723 - March 8, 2009 reply

Wow...

I hope he explains this more in a blog post or something. Haren is a good freakin’ pitcher. If Anderson is better than by the end of this year, the A’s may be the favorites in the division.

Though, it’s hard to say what he means by that statement.

aren't the A's the favorites in the division now?

I know, most of the “experts” are picking the Angels to win it, but they’re heavily hedging their bet… I mean seriously hedging it… saying the A’s could very well win the West. So, you know, like they won’t be wrong when the A’s do win it.

I think what he means by that statement is that he hates Dan Haren

who has no strikeout pitch, by the way. Pay no attention to the career 7.33 K/9 behind the curtain.