Considering that the A's ace, and only established starting pitcher (Duke), one of their more promising and most major-league ready young starters (Gio Gonzalez), and their true closer (Joey Devine) are starting the season injured, I am remarkably sanguine about the A's chances right now.
That's because baseball is graded on a curve: It matters less how good you are than how you stack up with the competition. Let's look at the competition in April:
The A's will start the season with an apparent rotation of Braden, Eveland, Gallagher, Anderson, and Cahill. However, the Angels will start the season with an apparent rotation of Saunders, J. Weaver, Moseley, Adenhart, and Loux. Meanwhile, the A's have the better lineup and defense, while each team sports a bullpen best described as "solid but not spectacular" (with Devine's injury I think the Angels have the edge, but it's not a huge one). Come the end of April, I have a hard time seeing how the Angels are going to be in much better shape than Oakland. The A's might be a couple games up or a couple games down, but the Angels team that takes the field in April is running away from no one.
Meanwhile, the Mariners can only start King Felix and Prince Bedard 40% of the time and must put an inferior lineup out there 100% of the time, while the Rangers sport a lineup whose heart of the order has lost Milton Bradley, and retained two aging veterans (Michael Young, Hank Blalock) who used to hit and field a lot better than they do now.
Even the A's "tough April schedule" has been mitigated by the fact that in four games against the Angels, Oakland will not to face A's killer Ervin Santana nor A's and league killer John Lackey, and that in three games the A's will catch a Yankees team that is missing Alex Rodriguez.
In other words, from April 6th at least until Lackey and Santana return, the AL West looks like a group of teams all just hoping to play .500 ball, all pretty much guaranteed to be separated by no more than a handful of games.
Then it's a question of how quickly the A's get Duchscherer back, how soon the young pitchers make the transition from "getting their feet wet" to "approaching their true ability," and so on. By May 15th, Duchscherer could be back or on the way, Cahill and Anderson could be hitting their stride.
If not, I certainly don't like the A's chances, but by May 15th some new injuries could also have hit some of the Angels' core players, so you just try to hang in there the first month, the first week, the first day - you don't have to contend for 162 games all at once. And the A's will contend for the first 6 weeks despite themselves, thanks to circumstance. From there, it's incumbent upon them to get healthier, to start pitching less like "newbies" and more like "oldbies," and maybe even to be pre-emptive and become buyers earlier rather than later.
But if you're looking at the A's starting rotation and saying, "Contend - are you kidding me?" look around at the rest of the AL West. You'll feel better.
0 recs | 61 comments
the A's also did suprisingly well last April
and even into June…
but the Angels stayed close, and their ace Lackey came back, while Santana was very good, and their young uns (Saunders, Weaver) were decent.
The Angels made a f’n A trade midseason to get Teixera…but by then the A’s were no longer a factor in the division race.
I doubt the Angels will be missing both Lackey and Santana for most of the season (perhaps Santana…). I’m not optimistic about Duchscherer, frankly…and the A’s starting rotation looks like a bunch of good prospects who would be in AAA if not for how few alternatives the A’s have.
Believe me, I will be rooting hard for the A’s, especially for the young pitchers…but looking at the rest of the division doesn’t really comfort me at the moment, because I’m looking more at the A’s.
OaklandSi - March 30, 2009
But your last sentence is kind of my point
Unless the Angels add another Teixeira, I’m not sure they’ll be great. If they get Lackey and Santana back without losing anyone, they might be good, but that’s best case scenario. Just as likely, C & A are closer to ready than their age would suggest and the A’s ride the unicorn to glory.
Nico - March 30, 2009
I don't think the Angels are as strong as last year
unless some of their young stars finally justify the hype (ie, Kendrick, Morales). But I am really nervous about the A’s starting rotation. Even terrific prospects can be problematic if they are brought up too soon…and that’s half of the rotation (the other half being barely experienced starters).
OaklandSi - March 30, 2009
I guess in my Spring optimism, I'm looking at
the young pitchers as being better dice to roll than, say, Jarrod Washburn and Carlos Silva – or Dustin Moseley, Nick Adenhart, and “‘Scuse me mate but where’s the” Loux.
Nico - March 30, 2009
Fel betr.
islandgirl - March 30, 2009
and remember, last year
it wasn’t just the angels gaining Teixerererera, the A’s traded away Harden and Blanton and Gaudin, and lost Duchscherer and Street (well, kinda) – so, assuming that the A’s aren’t going to do that this year (yes, i know, we could easily see the back of Holiday within three months), then I think it’d take more than one trade to tip the balance.
Unless the Rangers can find some pitching, of course.
alea iacta est - March 30, 2009
yeah
OaklandSi - March 31, 2009
And then when Paul Thomas returns from his 30 day suspension...
The A’s will be unstoppable!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
mrod - March 31, 2009
Sad to see Devine having trouble
Ziggy will close but I really am worried about Ziggy facing Lefties. He is going to have trouble with them.
We sure have had our share of injuries the last few years.
I have faith in our offense to come thru, certainly much, much better than last year. This will fo course help our shaky pitching. I think Anderson will be just fine no matter what. He has the makeup to handle any adversity.
Trainman - March 30, 2009
that's my question about Ziggy as closer
OaklandSi - March 31, 2009
I like this point of view.
I’ll take it. I usually read AN everyday but I started barely skimming when I saw all the injuries going down. When something stresses me out I like to push it to the back of my mind and ignore it. Works wonders. ; )
kellbell - March 30, 2009
is lackey hurt?
will he miss his game wednesday
Future Ed - March 30, 2009
ok
it will be a while for Lackey.
Chavez!
Future Ed - March 30, 2009
and
the suslu edition
Future Ed - March 30, 2009
I have a problem with this...
Is it really true? Certainly on defense we are going to field a strong team but..
BP seems to think offensively we are going to be the same offensively .006 higher OBP and .005 less Slugging. Our rotation has to be as good as theirs if we are going to win this division.
designatedforassignment - March 30, 2009
that's stupid
we replaced a replacement player with a superstar, another replacement player with a decent SS, and another with the Giambino. The only way our offense isn’t much better than last season is if the players we acquired don’t play.
Cheezombie - March 31, 2009
Um no its not.
Im suggesting that despite our offensive gains BP doesn’t think that our offense will be significantly better than the Angles, which is what this post is about, grading on a curve compared to the rest of the division not looking at last year.
designatedforassignment - March 31, 2009
that's just like...their opinion man
Cheezombie - March 31, 2009
I think Nelson Cruz
will fill Bradley’s void just fine. Not to mention you add in Chris Davis for a full season. That team will hit…of course, they still can’t get anyone out. But if pointing out a weakness with the Rangers, I certainly veer far from the offense.
OaktownPower - March 31, 2009
agreed, Texas lineup is going to be very good....
2B Kinsler – Yikes
3B Young – not great anymore, but still a good hitter and candidate for somewhat of a rebound season.
OF Hamilton – Yikes
OF Cruz – He has 5 homers in the spring and they are comfortable hitting him clean up, yikes
1B Davis – 40 hr threat
DH Blalock – DHing mostly could keep him healthy all season, that would be scary
OF – Byrd or Murphy depending on defensive alignment, probably Murphy at cost of hamilton in CF.
C They just need one of their awesome C prospects to do well
SS – Going to be bad
ChadGod - March 31, 2009
Let's see how they hit on the road
At home, they will score a ton and give up a ton of runs. On the road, they will give up a lot of runs and score…?
Nico - March 31, 2009
A lot
WaddellCanseco - March 31, 2009
This argument seems short sighted at best
The A’s can conceivably have Duke back in May to help the incredibly young rotation…..Meanwhile the Angels could conceivably have Lackey, Santana and Escobar if everything stays on track there. While the A’s will be able to bolster 1/5 of their rotation IF EVERYTHING goes right with the fragile Duke, the Angels would be able to bolster 3/5 of their starting rotation around the same time if EVERYTHING “breaks” right for them.
marco magic - March 31, 2009
I can't help but wonder if Angels
fans are bemoaning the fact that 3/5 of their rotation is a big question mark. All in all, I’d rather be in our shoes than their’s at the moment.
alox - March 31, 2009
Isn't 5/5 of the A's rotation a big question mark?
WaddellCanseco - March 31, 2009
Damn you.
I was beginning to feel a warm ray of optimism.
alox - March 31, 2009
(turns tanning lamp onto alox)
WaddellCanseco - March 31, 2009
Athletics Rotation:
Cheezombie - March 31, 2009
I think the operative word here is
die.
Nico - March 31, 2009
that's best case analysis for the angels
best case for the a’s is that 1) Duke is back, 2) Devine and Gio are also back, and 3) A/C start to reach their potential. Not to mention that there is more upside in the A’s offense than in the Angels’.
I do think that on balance the A’s need a little more luck and/or trading deadline magic than the Angels in order to win it. The difference is: 1) the A’s have more to deal at the deadline, 2) the A’s can do well as buyers OR sellers at the deadline and 3) a team with a unicorn simply DESERVES more luck.
eastcoasta'sfan - March 31, 2009
This just in: MLB embraces Moneyball -- Joe Morgan disconsolate
The Dogfather - March 31, 2009
Oakland's bullpen...
I’m not so confident in the bullpen at this point:
Devine (most likely DL, possibly exploritory surgery – out 6 weeks);
Ziegler (will probably regress to league average, forget the 1.00 ERA this year);
Casilla (looks great so far, but all it takes is one slider to jack-up his elbow – not to mention he’s a classic headcase)
Blevins (unproven to this point)
Wuertz (Jay Witasick like)
Springer (40 year old)
pick between Bailey, Outman or Gio (all untested at this point)
Not to be so negative, but the bullpen could be the A’s undoing.
athleticsBB4life - March 31, 2009
stop being negative
it’s spring. time for blind optimism.
eastcoasta'sfan - March 31, 2009
A's are gonna go 162-0!!!!!
ok, now I’m going to go get my coffee
OaklandSi - March 31, 2009
162-0 AND coffee!!!!
Life is good.
Nico - March 31, 2009
I've switched to green tea
WaddellCanseco - March 31, 2009
Green Tea and Goldschlager.
The beverage of the true A’s fan.
oblique - March 31, 2009
wow. i may have to try that
A'sfaninNC - March 31, 2009
And a PONY
With pink tassels, please!
MobiusKlein - March 31, 2009
I shudder to think
what your prediction will be AFTER coffee
eastcoasta'sfan - March 31, 2009
well, it's gone down considerably from 162 wins
OaklandSi - March 31, 2009
Im not concered about the pen.
We have a plethora of young arms that can fill the voids.
Syphon - March 31, 2009
Sheffield Released
Sign this guy and have him be the:
Oakland A’s Self Defense special coordinator specifically in charge of Hand Guns -
ryanmoser - March 31, 2009
I wonder??
Just a complete guess by me but could the A’s pick up a former A’s starter on the cubs Chad for Bobby Crosby? Crosby has had a ok spring and not doing bad as a utility player and the cubs did scout him this spring. A even trade would bring the A’s a #5 starter.
Arcman - March 31, 2009
Gaudin would have to be stretched-out, since he's...
been a reliever for over a year now, but I had the same thought. I wonder if the A’s would have any interest in Jeff Niemann from TB? He’s out of options and has been the center of a lot of trade speculation in the last week or so. He may make a nice fill-in starter and there’s been talk in the past that the guy will ultimately become a closer. It might not take a whole lot to get him and it would buy some time for Cahill.
athleticsBB4life - March 31, 2009
I have to think that the A's are at least monitoring the possibilities
OaklandSi - March 31, 2009
Hayden Penn from Baltimore
Looks like he’s potentially an “out of options” cut type.
mikev - March 31, 2009
I hope that the Angels don’t go out there and sign Sheffield now that the Tigers have released him. What concerns me is that they have the financial flexibility to make that trade for that key piece of the puzzle. As it is right now, it will feel strange (but good) to see Oakland with a more potent offense than LAA.
Both our pitching staffs are hurt, they obviously have the experience advantage by a bit. I would love to see our rotation consist of Braden, Eveland, Gallagher, Anderson and Cahill. I think Anderson and Cahill will do a decent job even with limited experience, they may even push Gallagher and the other three starters. Also, I’m hoping that our bats will give them ample run support so that they dont’ have to always be pitching with the narrowest of leads or pitching from behind.
Go A’s!
ATLDuck - March 31, 2009
The solution for the rotation
Trade Crosby to Detroit for Dontrelle. Get Detroit to pick up half the contract. Then have Dontrelle hire Pedro to pitch for him. They can cut their own deal.
Pedro might be good, but he would probably stink and get released. However, we’d be rid of Crosby and it would cost us nothing.
Sound good? I’ve got more ideas like this.
eastcoasta'sfan - March 31, 2009
teach us o wise one
A'sfaninNC - March 31, 2009
The only thing is....
Dontrelle sucks now.
mikev - March 31, 2009
Hence the outsourcing to Pedro
WaddellCanseco - March 31, 2009
the one good thing you can say about my proposal
is there’s no downside for the A’s. Even if BoCro plays well in Detroit, no one will think he would have played well here.
eastcoasta'sfan - April 1, 2009
feared words coming from Slusser today
that Devine is going to visit Dr. Andrews about his elbow.
Drs. Andrews and Yocum are the two surgeons most often mentioned regarding operations on pitchers.
OaklandSi - March 31, 2009
The Dr.'s Frankensteins of the pitching world.
alox - March 31, 2009
At least he's not Kevorian
WaddellCanseco - March 31, 2009
What is up...
with all our injuiries, particularly our pitchers? Can our pitching coach have anything to do with this? This is unbelievable!
ATLDuck - March 31, 2009
Cahill to pitch game 2 of the season?
Link
Also, on Rotoworld A’s News on front page
jakebmill - March 31, 2009
That's interesting
I wonder if Beane has demoted Eveland and Gallagher (symbolically, since it doesn’t really matter) to lower in the rotation as part of “lighting a fire” and making a statement. I can’t really see any other reason to do this, since you could use Gallagher to split L/R if you wanted.
Nico - March 31, 2009
He may also want Cahill to pitch against the free swinging Angels with two good righty hitters
WaddellCanseco - March 31, 2009
Right after I posted the idea?
Buuuuuaaaaahaha!!!!!!!
Nico - March 31, 2009
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