With Orlando Cabrera on the way and Nomar Garciaparra on the way to being on the way, the A's roster for position players is coming together. It's still unclear whether Chris Denorfia or Rajai Davis might win the 4th OF spot, but Davis may have the edge because of the two only Denorfia can be stashed in AAA. For a moment, though, consider the scenario where Denorfia gets the nod due to his ability to hit LHP well enough to platoon as a starter. The A's could actually use platooning to turn their offense into one that is more potent than meets the eye.
This is because Eric Chavez and Ryan Sweeney have historically struggled against LHP but could put up very good numbers if they mostly face RHP. In Garciaparra and Denorfia, the A's have an available Garth Iorg to Chavez' Rance Mulliniks, and an available Gary Roenicke to Sweeney's John Lowenstein, if you will (will you? please?).
Nobody expects Chavez to produce an .882 OPS this season, or for Sweeney to bat .307 while playing half his games at the Coliseum. Yet those numbers represent Chavez' career OPS, and Sweeney's 2008 batting average, when facing RHP.
What I want to present is a lineup, with projected stats that are realistic if the A's decide to platoon Chavez and Nomar at 3B, Sweeney and Denorfia in CF. Do these numbers (all projections rounded to the nearest tenth) seem reasonable when accounting for these four players enjoying a platoon advantage the vast majority of the time?
Buck - RF (.260/.350/.450, 15 HR, 15 SB)
Cust - DH (.240/.360/.500, 32 HR)
Holliday - LF (.300/.400/.500, 26 HR, 18 SB)
Giambi - 1B (.240/.360/.460, 25 HR)
Chavez/Nomar - 3B (.270/.350/.450, 20 HR)
Suzuki - C (.260/.340/.370, 12 HR)
Sweeney/Denorfia - CF (.300/.360/.370, 10 HR)
Ellis - 2B (.250/.330/.380, 12 HR)
Cabrera - SS (.270/.320/.360, 3 HR, 20 SB)
And it's a pretty solid defensive team overall. Not bad?
0 recs | 110 comments
add 20 points of BA for Buck and subtract some HR
Zonis - March 3, 2009
Maybe, but I'd say it's as likely he only hits .260 and does hit 15 HR
as that he hits .280 but falls short of 15 HR. 15 HR isn’t all that ambitious a projection for Buck, based on what he has done in the big leagues in his two stints. Also, I’m trying to keep park effects in mind when guessing batting averages.
Nico - March 3, 2009
Iorg, Mulliniks, et al?
You’re showing your age again, my friend. And when you do that, you show mine!
67MARQUEZ - March 3, 2009
Garth Iorg was monkeyball’s favorite player
(sobs)
OK, I’ll stop.
andeux - March 3, 2009
Damn you.
I was just getting over it.
;)
67MARQUEZ - March 3, 2009
Personally, I'm not sure we can agree to this arrangement
without also getting an Ernie Witt, a Rich Dauer, and a Floyd “Honeybear” Rayford.
Nick - March 3, 2009
I’d go with about .275 on Suzuki’s average.
Rated-R Superstar - March 3, 2009
That'd be great. I'm a Suzuki believer - I just think
the combination of playing half his games in Oakland, and catching a lot of games with a young staff, will compromise his overall stats a bit.
He seemed (just my subjective recollection) to hit much better when he came back from a day off and worse following a long stretch of games played. I’m betting his stats will depend a lot on how often he actually gets a day off.
Nico - March 3, 2009
I won't nitpick on stats since that's not the point really
So I will focus on your idea that platoons are possible and should be actively implemented next year. I agree.
Helloooo 1st - March 3, 2009
They're also wild guesses - "best guesses" maybe,
but let’s face it: people, and machines, who try to project these stats are generally off.
Nico - March 3, 2009
The Machines are never wrong.
Only BCS ones
ATarHeel - March 3, 2009
I think the A's are true believers when it comes to Sweeney
I just don’t see a Sweeney/Denorfia platoon in the offing. Actually, I don’t see Denorfia making the team, at all.
Sweeney will hit more than 10 home runs by himself in 2009, even if he’s platooned; so, your projection of 10 HR’s combined from the platoon is rather disappointing.
FoolshGame22 - March 4, 2009
Definitely not a bad lineup
and having reasonable right-handed complements to Sweeney and Chavez clearly helps.
The big question is going to be health. Again. Substitute Hannahan for one (or both) of Chavez/Nomar, Barton for Giambi, Denorfia full time for Buck, and whoever for Ellis and the offense is back to being decidedly mediocre, though still probably better than last year’s. I guess an added advantage of having a bench worthy of some regular playing time is it gives some of those front-line players a slightly better chance of staying healthy.
andeux - March 3, 2009
True - I'd hope Chavez' and Nomar's chances
of staying healthy are greatly enhanced if Chavez sits against all LHP for a while and Nomar is only slated to start 35-40 games. As for Buck…Who the heck knows what to expect?
Nico - March 3, 2009
In a full season Buck hits 20/20 easy
if not 25/25
I like the idea of platooning players, (it would help keep Chavey healthy). You would think the A’s coaching would make an effort toward this goal. If the past 3+ years have taught us, (and them) anything it is that when this team is healthy they compete.
adragon - March 3, 2009
I agree - my 15/15 numbers are intended to be conservative
so as not to come across as overly optimistic (after all he did have a crapola of a 2008 overall), and to acknowledge the unlikelihood of him playing 150 games. But given good health and any kind of resurgence, Buck could be a 25/25 guy in the big leagues.
Nico - March 3, 2009
I approve
drmmerchk - March 3, 2009
Bonds is looking for a job again
what about
CF Sweeney/Denorfia
RF Jack Cust
DH Barry Bonds
LF Matt Holliday
1B Jason Giambi
3B Eric Chavez/Nomar Garciaparra
C1 Kurt Suzuki
2B Mark Ellis
SS Orlando Cabrera
Zonis - March 3, 2009
No two Buck chuck?
I realize that Bonds still had a pretty good 2007, but it was no where near his previous levels. I can’t imagine he’d even reach his 2007 levels currently, considering he’s been out of baseball a year and has that whole age thing going against him, not to mention that they kind of test for steroids still.
My guess is that Bonds wouldn’t be that significant of an upgrade over Buck to warrant signing him at the expense of Bucks’ development. Of course, we did just sign Nomar and O Cab, so maybe the apocalypse is coming. I heard Clemens can still play.
DyeLongJustice - March 3, 2009
The warranty on Bonds has not only expired...
…it’s yellow and brittle.
FormerHuntsvilleStar - March 3, 2009
I'd be happy with it
But it’s become increasingly obvious that it’s Selig’s decision. Bonds is a symbol of steroids and Selig wants to rid baseball of that symbol. And since the A’s will need the owners’ approval (i.e. Selig’s) for SJ, the A’s won’t risk making Selig mad.
Bonds won’t play in 2009, but if he did, the A’s are as good a fit as any. But imagine a bench of Bonds, Crosby, Nomar, and Bowen (assuming Buck is the backup CF). Sure the A’s become pretty bad with the leather, but the A’s would get a ton of fans and could sure hit. And we, the fans, deserve that after the last couple years.
vignette17 - March 3, 2009
I don't disagree
But if it’s really Selig’s decision, that’s collusion, ipso facto.
FreeSeatUpgrade - March 3, 2009
Hey, who are you calling fatso?
Nico - March 3, 2009
Ya think?
PaulThomas - March 3, 2009
A mixed bag of stars!
fruitattack - March 3, 2009
Party Like It's 1999
Chavez is healthy!
Giambi and Bonds battling for the AL bases on balls title!
A shortstop with power!
GoA's - March 3, 2009
AN doesn't yet exist!
JediLeroy - March 3, 2009
I still don't see a reason to replace Davis with Denorfia
OaklandSi - March 3, 2009
Because Denorfia's track record is extremely strong against LHP
whereas Raj Davis in general, and R. Sweeney against LHP, have been very poor offensively over the years.
Nico - March 3, 2009
Denorfia still doesn't have a major league track record
and he battled injuries for most of last year even at AAA.
It seems more logical to start him at AAA and Davis as the a’s fifth outfielder. Besides the fact that Davis is out of options while Denorfia still has them, I don’t see that Denorfia has enough of a track record since he was out for a year — his track record is in the minors from 2006 and before. That seems a bit like comparing apples with oranges if you look at Davis’ record (while not playing very regularly in the majors).
OaklandSi - March 3, 2009
I think Davis has enough of a track record to say
“He’s an offensive minus.” As for Denorfia, he’s no sure thing but every indication from the minors suggests he can hit LHP well and just had his major league timeline delayed for two years by a specific injury.
Nico - March 3, 2009
in any event it will be interesting to see what the A's do
OaklandSi - March 3, 2009
My guess: They start with Davis in Oakland
and Denorfia at AAA. Then if Denorfia gets off to a good start in Sacramento while Sweeney struggles against LHP…
Nico - March 3, 2009
Isn't Bob Gibson is still alive.
Or we could always dig up Lefty Grove…
adragon - March 3, 2009
I can't imagine that the A's
would overtly platoon Chavvy, at least in April and May, simply out of a sense of loyalty and appreciation for his stature. Mind you, I’m not saying that’s a correct approach. But the A’s have been mighty deferential to Employee #3 over the years, and I suspect they’ll err on the side of “paying him the respect” of letting him try against lefties. Again, at least at first.
Now, to the extent they can skew a go-slow approach vis his health to some days the A’s happen to face lefties, then sure.
FreeSeatUpgrade - March 3, 2009
Why are players so offended by being confronted with the notion that they suck at something that they clearly suck at?
Does Bengie Molina want a green light to run?
Does Randy Moss want to play linebacker?
I don’t “get” why players are so opposed to platooning. If your job is to hit against righties, go out and do your job. If you want a “promotion” to hit against lefties too, earn it by showing that you’re competent.
PaulThomas - March 3, 2009
Same reason Crosby says he can't imagine playing anywhere
but shortstop. Because for every moment of the 20+ years of their athletic lives until that point, they’ve been the most talented guy on the field, head and shoulders above everyone else. And all their friends and coaches and agents have reinforced that view many times over.
It’s hard for anyone, in any field, to just accept that they’re no longer the man, even if that’s the best move for the team, and perhaps for themselves.
FreeSeatUpgrade - March 3, 2009
Again, that doesn't make any sense in context
I’m sure Randy Moss has been the most athletic player on the field his whole life, too.
PaulThomas - March 3, 2009
Your analogy is inapt
A better analogy would be asking an aging Randy Moss to be a third down receiver only. Or asking Julius Peppers to play only on passing downs. You’re suggesting a totally different job; platooning is asking the player to do the same job, but in only some fraction of the circumstances.
This again is just vis the athlete’s perceptions and reactions; I have no problem platooning Chavez.
FreeSeatUpgrade - March 3, 2009
It IS a totally different job
Every single player in MLB, so far as we can tell, does worse (though the extent of that worseness varies from man to man) hitting against a pitcher of the same handedness. I’m not aware of receivers developing better (or worse) statlines when playing only on third downs… although if you showed me a guy who (ceteris paribus, etc etc) went from 7 yards a reception to 15 yards a reception as long as you played him only on third downs, I’d be arguing to “platoon” him, too…
There’s nothing about being able to hit righties that necessarily means you’re capable of hitting lefties too.
PaulThomas - March 3, 2009
Every single player except
Ronny Cedeño.
Has anyone figured this guy out? One year, or even two years, I’d call it a fluke, but he’s now shown a significant reverse platoon split for four straight years. It’s freakish. It’s like he’s a screwball hitter.
On a related note, some Mariners wonks have perceived what they think is a pattern whereby hitters from Japan are more likely to have a reverse platoon split than other players. Ichiro had a slight reverse platoon split for several years (’03 to ’06, I think), though not recently. Johjima had a slight reverse platoon split in 2006, his first year here, though he reverted to normal after that. On the Rays, Iwamura had a pretty significant reverse platoon split in 2007, but was normal in 2008. Hideki Matsui had one year with a slight reverse split (2005) and a few more years where he was close to even. Fukudome was close to even in his first year here.
That’s not to say that Japanese hitters really are backward. On the whole, they’re still more likely to have a normal platoon split than a reverse one. But it’s striking how many of them break the mold. There aren’t that many hitters from Japan in MLB, and to find some hint of reverse platooning in nearly half of them is a pretty striking pattern.
iglew - March 3, 2009
oh, one more
Tadahito Iguchi had a noticeable reverse split in 2008, and was close to even the preceding three years.
iglew - March 3, 2009
I feel like that trend should make Cedeno more valuable
Since he could platoon with another righty. Yet he seems to have a rep as a backup middle infielder, not a platoon player
Ezzra - March 4, 2009
I suspect what's going on there
is that Cedeno is actually close to neutral, but has randomly fluctuated in one direction for 4 straight years, and it happens to be the “reverse split” direction. There are enough players kicking around MLB (especially at the levels of PAs that Cedeno has been getting) that someone has to be the outlier. It’s much the same argument (albeit a more nuanced version, since hitters aren’t either/or but a spectrum) as why I don’t think the Angels are special because they’ve outperformed their pythag 5 years straight— there are 30 teams, so odds are someone will outperform 5 years in a row.
The thing about Japanese hitters is interesting, though. There does seem to be a very distinctive “Japanese batting style”, especially for their lefthanded hitters, which involves pulling off the ball, almost a slap-hitting style. An interesting followup would be to see if slap-hitting softball players also often showed reverse splits. I know the pitches are not the same, but the only thing we care about is the interaction between the swing path and the spin on the ball, and that’s sufficiently close between the sports that it might tell us something.
PaulThomas - March 4, 2009
Interesting last paragraph there
In slow pitch softball, I can see how the reverse split might work to the advantage of the slap hitter types (a right-handed hitting guy on my team tries to drop the ball as close to the RF line as he can almost every time up). The pitch from a right-handed pitcher typically has a rotation on the ball – and somewhat of a “break” – towards the outside of the plate. It’s the perfect type of pitch for this sort of swing.
thejd44 - March 4, 2009
Also, everyone including Chavez knows that he
needs to take about every fourth day off. Why not maximize his ability by choosing the toughest pitchers for ANY lefty hitter (generally) to face? It’s not a slap to Chavez, just an acknowledgement of about 100 years of platoon data in baseball.
Nico - March 3, 2009
I'm still puzzled by Macha's benching of Kielty in favor of Kotsay.
I’d have benched Payton if anything.
WaddellCanseco - March 3, 2009
I'm sorry -
benching payton so the fridge could score a touchdown was inexcusable!
Hot Cup Joe - March 3, 2009
That was awesome!
Ah, memories. Back when I used to care about football.
When was that? Mid-80s?
iglew - March 3, 2009
Look at what we're paying for Chavez
He’s not going to platoon anytime soon. He might think its the best for his health, but his agent is gonna tell him “You play everyday or you’re not getting a good contract next offseason”
Let’s be realistic, there’s no chance he’s contantly platooning. Yes, Nomar might play 3B every now and then, but I expect him to play DH then.
ATarHeel - March 3, 2009
Being realistic is to say that Chavez will NOT be playing every day
in April, May, and June. He’ll be sitting 1/4 of the time one way or the other.
Nico - March 3, 2009
If he's not on the IR he's going to play everyday
What would make more sense would be
He’s going to get injured and will probably miss a month or two in the middle of the season, so we’re adding up his stats with Nomar
ATarHeel - March 3, 2009
In my e're so humble opinion, you're just
wrong, wrong, incorrect about that. I predict that if Chavez is not on the DL in April and May, he will still play only 5 days/week (sitting out 1-2 games/week depending on whether or not there is an off-day).
Nico - March 3, 2009
Those 1-2 games you think he will sit out
will be played as a DH, specially now that Barton isn’t in the mix
He’s winning 10 million a year, he better get his ass up in the batters box every damn day
ATarHeel - March 3, 2009
There is no way he'll DH,
because that would force both Cust and Giambi to play defense (along with a sub-par defensive 3Bman), meaning an infield with Nomar and Giambi at the corners, Cust in the OF, and Buck on the bench. Or you can sit either Cust or Giambi, which offsets having Chavez in the lineup.
Neither makes any sense. Chavez and his salary will be on the bench some in April and May, because he is recovering from serious surgeries.
Nico - March 3, 2009
Actually I find that infield perfectly possible
We already have a history of trying to get the best hitters in the lineup no matter what. I know it looks like crap but I wouldn’t be surprised. I just don’t see Chavez sitting out games unless he really needed a break, in my opinion Nomar was signed in order to be an upgrade over Barton, not to give Chavez a rest.
And even though it may be the best thing for Chavez health (and I agree with you on this) to sit every now and then, I doubt it happens.
Plus this what mikev said I I
V
ATarHeel - March 3, 2009
Choosing to DH Chavez instead of sitting him, against a lefty starter,
should be grounds for immediate termination of any manager.
PaulThomas - March 3, 2009
Then why the hell do we still have Chavez!
I dont get it!!!!!!
ATarHeel - March 3, 2009
Huh?
PaulThomas - March 3, 2009
Why didnt we cut him a year ago
We’re paying 10 million a year for hitter that doesn’t even play everyday
ATarHeel - March 3, 2009
Because his salary is guaranteed
We pay him 10 million a year whether he plays here or not. Cutting him and paying him all that money is profoundly stupid.
OkayJay81 - March 3, 2009
So we're "stuck" with Chavez
I see, I just failed to see how baseball is not like the NFL sometimes in regards to contracts and cutting players
ATarHeel - March 3, 2009
Yea, NFL has the worst players union out there
Chavez is the proverbial albatross he can’t be cut and no one would trade for him so you just take what you can get untill his contract runs out.
OkayJay81 - March 3, 2009
Thank God
Javon Walker doesn’t play baseball
ATarHeel - March 3, 2009
or that Al Davis isn't an MLB GM
UOSportsDude - March 3, 2009
Wow
my mind exploded
ATarHeel - March 3, 2009
With a handful of exceptions,
MLB contracts are guaranteed. The best you can hope for if you cut a player is that someone else signs him for the league minimum and you get out of paying him $400K.
The exceptions are players who go through the arbitration process (those contracts usually guarantee only 1/6th of their dollar value) and contractual options (Chavez does have one of those, eventually, so the A’s can choose to “cut” him after 2010 and only be out $3M in 2011).
PaulThomas - March 3, 2009
I think a promise to Nomar has been made
Nomar signed with the A’s on the promise they will play him and get him more AB’ss then any other team. Nomar will be in the lineup v LH no question. Chavez needs to hit like he did 5-6 years ago. If he does then, they will get him more AB’s v. LH’s. The other option is that Nomar can play 1st base and platoon with Buck/Barton.
Also, It’s not like Cust or Giambi kill LH’s and are Cal ripikenesque in playing every day. The A’s are over loaded with LH bats with Chavez, Buck or Barton, Giambi and Cust who should be with Holliday be the primary heart of the order.
ogallalabob - March 4, 2009
What are you basing this on?
Nomar wasn’t negotiating with any other teams (anymore), and if it’s at bats he wants any he gets with the A’s will be more than he would’ve gotten sitting at home.
thejd44 - March 4, 2009
Because professional athletes have fucking GIGANTIC egos, Paul.
mikev - March 3, 2009
and this, accompanied by a douchebag agent
ATarHeel - March 3, 2009
Again, why does Bengie Molina's ego not cause him to steal bases?
Why does Dwight Howard not ask to play point guard?
PaulThomas - March 3, 2009
I don't know if those analogies are quite apt
I think it’s more like would Molina be upset if you decided to pinch run for him everytime he reached base.
Or telling Dwight Howard he’s not allowed to shoot anymore, only dunk and play defense.
It may be better for the team to platoon guys, but I can understand why they would want to be out there every day. Hitting against same handed pitchers is not about a style of play, it’s a major part of the game.
OkayJay81 - March 3, 2009
+1,000,000
ZigFan31 - March 3, 2009
I approve of your ideas and wish to subscribe to your newsletter.
Particularly w/r/t Chavez, who needs days off anyway (might as well have them be against lefties, no?). Sweeney’s a bit more of a vexed issue since he’s young, but personally I don’t think he’ll ever be more than a platoon starter anyway, so screw it.
PaulThomas - March 3, 2009
one thing I noticed, Nico
In the first paragraph you say that Davis may be “ahead” in the race because Denorfia can go to AAA…
but then you lay out platoon lineups with Denorfia and not Davis :D
mikev - March 3, 2009
I gotta believe the job is Denorfia's to win or lose. If he can hit, he wins the job.
Davis is the fallback if Denorfia hits like a AAA player.
WaddellCanseco - March 3, 2009
I know, mikev -
but I then say, “For a moment, though, consider the scenario where Denorfia gets the nod due to his ability to hit LHP well enough to platoon as a starter.”
Nico - March 3, 2009
What, you want me to read the WHOLE thing?
mikev - March 3, 2009
Absolutely
I would love to see those two platoons. Only problem is that Nomar will have to be play some 1B to let Giambi rest, too.
Danny - March 3, 2009
He can play both 1B and 3B against LHP
I mean, Jeter would.
Nico - March 3, 2009
Really, it's not to much to ask.
After all, Jeter does represent the Unites States and the Yankee’s. Of course, in ESPN parlance, they’re one and the same.
alox - March 3, 2009
A scenario in which both Davis and Denorfia start with the big club:
If either Ellis or Chavez start on the DL – which, unfortunately, is not all that unlikely – I could see the A’s going with only five infielders and Davis as the emergency sixth.
If Ellis starts on DL:
1b: Giambi/Nomar
2b: Cabrera
SS: McRosby
3b: Chavez/Nomar
…with Davis as the emergency second baseman and Nomar capable of filling in at shortstop if need be.
If Chavez starts on DL:
1b: Giambi/Nomar
2b: Ellis
SS: Cabrera
3b: Nomar/McRosby
Both scenarios assume that we start the season with 12 pitchers, which I think is an absolute must regardless of what injuries occur.
I don’t think Barton starts the season with the A’s unless Giambi goes down.
notsellingjeans - March 3, 2009
Ok I just realized I haven't seen anything of Aaron Cunningham
What;s the deal with him, I thought he was going to be our 4th OF and play constantly with Buck sitting out sometimes.
ATarHeel - March 3, 2009
It's basically unanimous among any analyst who has looked at him
that he could use another half a season, at least, of AAA time.
PaulThomas - March 3, 2009
I see
so let’s say he has a pretty damn good Spring, any chance he enters the season as our 4th OF?
ATarHeel - March 3, 2009
I don't think so - I think the A's are committed
to starting Cunningham at AAA and then seeing what happens with the other OFers (and Cunningham’s readiness). There’s nothing really to be lost by starting Cunningham in AAA and then calling him up in a bit.
Nico - March 3, 2009
I assume Cunningham
is near the top of the list to come up if one of our other OFs is hurt and/or sucks.
Which is to say we’re pretty sure to see him some time during the season.
iglew - March 3, 2009
Aside from needing it
The addition of Holliday and Giambi sorta squeezes him out of a starting spot, assuming Buck remembers how to hit. No use having him on the bench.
thejd44 - March 3, 2009
There's also a chance that Denorfia simply beats out Buck
and that Denorfia and Cust are essentially the right fielders, while Buck starts in AAA and Rajai’s the fifth outfielder.
I know that that’s near heresy around here, but it could happen. Buck has broken our hearts before.
notsellingjeans - March 3, 2009
I think this could happen
but Buck would break our hearths in the beginning of the season, yet again
I think there’s no way Denorfia beats Buck during the spring, even if he does better than him
ATarHeel - March 3, 2009
Wouldn't that be "brick" our hearths?
PaulThomas - March 3, 2009
I didn't understand why the A's had any interest in Nomah
Until the OCab signing. Now it somehow makes sense. I’m late to the game again. Our offense looks freaking fantastic now, compared to the last few seasons. It is conceivable that Nomar could factor in almost any game to some degree.
somebodyelse - March 3, 2009
He is a RH bat who kills LHP and just about every position he can play has a LH who struggles against LHP
ogallalabob - March 4, 2009
I was saying that I do understand now.
Definitely on board. Late to the party, but on board.
somebodyelse - March 5, 2009
Davis vs. Denorfia
If Rajai Davis meets his projections, and barring some catastrophic defensive collapse, he’s not just a more valuable player than Chris Denorfia he’s actually good enough to be a starter.
Last year he was about 1 WAR (per 150 games) for position with the glove (by Fangraphs assessment, which is actually worse than MGL’s UZR, I think, and PMR, which had him as the best defensive CF in baseball). Denorfia is a bad defensive CF. Davis’ wOBA projections combined are about .310. Denorfia’s wOBA projections are around .330 (taking wRAA, Denorfia would be around half a win better with the bat over around 300 PA). Going by Fangraphs’ UZR, Davis is between 2 to 2.5 wins better than Denorfia with the glove (again, per 150). Even if you cut that in half – 1-1.25 wins since we want to have offense and defense on the same scale of playing time… Davis is at least half a win better than Denorfia.
And he provides a versatility that Denorfia doesn’t.
I really don’t see where the argument is with these two.
thejd44 - March 3, 2009
There's no evidence on which anyone could possibly conclude that Davis is 2 wins better with the glove than Denorfia
CHONE has the difference at half that.
I mean, it’s no wonder you don’t see the argument, if your approach to the argument is to cherrypick the most favorable stats for your side of it willy-nilly.
PaulThomas - March 3, 2009
How was I cherrypicking?
Look at the defensive stats. UZR /150 for Davis for his career for CF is 6.8. For Denorfia it’s -13.2. That’s EXACTLY 2 wins. If you look at last year’s numbers, it’s more like 3 wins. I did say, too, that since neither guy would play full time you could cut that in half (assuming the typical platoon, plus some defensive innings as a replacement, times as pinch runner, etc.). Even cutting it in half, Davis is significantly better. More than the difference in their hitting, favoring Davis.
I don’t see where there’s a cherry pick here.
thejd44 - March 3, 2009
The sample sizes for that defensive data are infinitesimal
As for the offensive data, you have three projections which have differentials of 27, 27 and 22 points of wOBA for CHONE, Marcel and Oliver respectively, and somehow that ends up being 20 in your summary? Forget that I don’t believe the Davis projections (although I don’t— I think they’re crap). They don’t even support your statement to begin with.
PaulThomas - March 4, 2009
Other than CHONE, which doesn't consider UZR, what evidence is there that
thejd44’s argument is wrong? Are you just giving your opinion based on your personal observation?
WaddellCanseco - March 4, 2009
Now who's cherrypicking?!
You just left out Rajai’s best projection to make your point! You have to factor in James’ projection if you’re using the others. So what if there isn’t a James projection for Denorfia?
But, fine, let’s make it 25 points of wOBA. Davis is STILL more valuable because he’s THAT MUCH BETTER DEFENSIVELY.
thejd44 - March 4, 2009
Also, why do you just dismiss all the projections?
Especially when they’re all fairly close. Why are all these systems wrong on him?
thejd44 - March 4, 2009
An on unrelated note....not that anyone cares, but
Manny and the Dodgers closing in on a deal
mrod - March 3, 2009
I wish I was so good at something that I could be an absolute prick about how good I was and still get paid to do it
JediLeroy - March 3, 2009
Rosenthal's take
on the whole Manny-Boras-Dodgers saga
OaklandSi - March 4, 2009
Stupid link function!
rrrrr!
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3949705
mrod - March 3, 2009
I hope Matt Holliday takes all this into consideration before next season
Boras just makes the game of baseball, although it is a business for sure, feel like a trafficking prostitution ring……dirty & uncouth.
mrod - March 4, 2009
I'm sure Mark Teixeira feels dirty every time he looks at his direct deposit.
WaddellCanseco - March 4, 2009
Or he would feel dirty.....
except that his accountant does it for him. Maybe he or she feels dirty.
alox - March 4, 2009
Hey more power to the guy...
I just don’t like Scott Boras or what he’s done to the game.
Tex is not one of my favorite players anyway….but I know what your saying.
mrod - March 4, 2009
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