Well, the inevitable finally happened. The team with the biggest need for a dependably starting-caliber shortstop finally signed a decent one. For $4 million, this is a good deal for the team. As I'm sure some of you have noticed from some of my recent posts, I was one of a handful of actual Bobby Crosby hopeless cheerleaders/apologists/believers on this site, and yet, even so, I'm happy and excited with this signing. O-Cab is an improvement over 2006-2008 Bobby Crosby in just about every aspect of the game of baseball, and he might just be enough of a net-win improver that he closes the projected gap between the A's and the Angels all by himself. Thus, this is good news.
The A's will lose their 2nd rock draft pick in the 2009 draft to the White Sox as compensation for O-Cab, but that isn't a huge deal. I'm not exactly sure where the A's would have picked in the 2nd round, but in any case, it would have been more like a 3rd rounder anyway due to the continued ballooning of the sandwich (supplemental 1st) round. And even so, the A's newfound willingness to go over-slot in the later rounds of the draft should allow the team to nab some promising players even without a 2nd round selection.
Some quick takes:
- O-Cab is best suited to bat in the bottom of the batting order. He doesn't have a great career OBP (though still better than Crobsy's) but he's a good baserunner and puts the ball in play a lot. I think he's best used in the 9-hole where he can act as a sort of "2nd leadoff hitter" type.
- Mark Ellis has yet to get medical clearance to play defense at Spring Training. I think having O-Cab around reinforces the bench quite a bit in the event that Mark cannot begin the season 100-percent, as Orlando had previously indicated earlier this off-season that he'd be willing to play some 2nd base.
- Fangraphs agrees that this is a good move for the A's. They think it adds one win to the A's over the course of this coming season, noting that O-Cab is not great offensively anymore, but that his defense is still likely to be above-average.
- Bobby Crosby's future is now quite murky. The A's are on the hook for his $5.5 million 2009 salary and they couldn't give him away earlier this off-season. Seeing as how any team could have (theoretically) signed O-Cab (a better player than Bobby) for as little as $4.1 million as recently as yesterday, it's pretty obvious that the shortstop market is dead. I'll predict that Bobby stays with the team as the primary middle infield backup and that he gets a fair amount of playing time, as he is probably still a better backup than Cliff Pennington or even Jack Hannahan at this point.
- The team is still in negotiations with both Nomar and Dennys Reyes. The addition of both would really solidify this team going forward, but in order for that to happen, the team would need to free up two spots on the 40-man roster as it is now currently full thanks to this latest move.
- Slusser just mentioned that O-Cab is expected to report to A's camp on Thursday...just in time for me to see him don the green and gold for the first time as I'll be at Phoenix Muni Wednesday through Friday! Whoo hoo!
Welcome back Hot Stove action!
1 recs | 283 comments
As mentioned in the O-Cab thread
There are expendable pieces on the 40 man roster should the A’s sign Nomar and/or Reyes. I’d guess Jeff Gray, Jack Hannahan and Ben Copeland are at the top of the Cut List should a move be necessary.
In case anyone’s interested, the A’s 2009 payroll now stands at approximately $57 million.
grover - March 2, 2009
ben copeland is as good as gone
xbhaskarx - March 2, 2009
That's my guess. Gray goes if Reyes strolls into town.
grover - March 2, 2009
i think Copeland would pass through waivers
and I wouldn’t be surprised if Chen did, too. He made it through the entire NL earlier this year, after all.
Some team would find a use for Gray. He’s got two options left, and teams always need a few relievers who can bounce back and forth during the year.
I think Gray wins this round of Roster Survivor.
notsellingjeans - March 2, 2009
To my understanding...
if Ben Copeland is not on our 40 man roster he becomes Giants property again. Thus wasting our Rule 5 pick for this previous draft. That is unless we trade for him which probably wouldn’t require a lot to get done, but probably isn’t really worth exploring since we have a glut of outfielders.
Zabat - March 2, 2009
Hey, at least the A's would get $25K back
Of course, they could have not spent $50K on him in the first place. Or, like, drafted a player who is vaguely useful.
PaulThomas - March 2, 2009
Jack never gets any respect...
Hannahan is better than at least 10 other guys on the 40 man roster. As the backup to an extremely injury prone player (Chavez), I can’t imagine he’d be on any shortlist of potential cuts.
Danny - March 2, 2009
Unless, of course, the pickup is Nomar.
My sister would be sad to see Hanananananananan go. She thinks he’s cute.
LoneStranger - March 2, 2009
Then he wouldn't make the 25 man roster, but Chavez and Nomar would likely get hurt
mikeA - March 2, 2009
If the A's sign Nomar he'd be the principle back-up at 3B
With Hannahan, what you see is what you get. Baisley still has some projection.
grover - March 2, 2009
2008 is what you get? Or is it 2007?
People seem to be judging Hannahan solely by his 2008 season, which is obviously a mistake. He projects to be miles better than Baisley (who I don’t see any projection in), and every metric rates Hannahan as a GG quality defensive player.
I see Nomar as backing up 3B and 1B—a platoon of him and Hannahan would be a nice fallback should Chavez go back to DL-land.
Danny - March 2, 2009
exactly
hannahan may not be a good hitter, but he is a better hitter than he was in 2008. and he plays great defense.
xbhaskarx - March 2, 2009
but wasn't the difference between '07 and '08 just BABIP?
2007 – .278 BA/.356 BABIP
2008 – .218 BA/.286 BABIP
scatterbrian - March 2, 2009
that's a great argument for Hannahan....
mikeA - March 2, 2009
Not really
Given his skills, a .286 BABIP is a lot more sensible than a .356.
I mean, there’s some room for bounceback there, but I sure as hell wouldn’t hang my hat on Hannahan having an above-average BABIP.
PaulThomas - March 2, 2009
But you don't have to pick one
You can do the sensible thing and conclude he’s likely to be somewhere in between.
Danny - March 2, 2009
Like maybe an average BABIP?
grover - March 2, 2009
.286
is a lot closer to league average than .356
sslinger - March 2, 2009
And...?
Who cares which is closer—neither is our best guess at his true talent level. That’s just a meaningless way to criticize the guy.
Danny - March 2, 2009
just because it's a criticism doesn't make it meaningless
anyway, league average is our best guess….and based on league average numbers, even a lucky Hannahan (circa 2007) ain’t that great. His defense is great, but you really don’t hold a roster spot for a 28 year old 3B who had trouble slugging .400 in the minors.
scatterbrian - March 2, 2009
it is not meaningless
tough to take you seriously when you say babip is meaningless
johnjahafanclub - March 2, 2009
that's not what he said at all....
mikeA - March 2, 2009
Thing is, Hannahan's main issue is not BABIP related,
and that is his difficulty making contact. I see Hannahan as a solid hitter against soft-tossers who is in big trouble against pitchers who throw 90+ MPH. He shouldn’t be platooing L/R, he should be platooning Hard/Soft.
Nico - March 2, 2009
true
it would be nice if Chavez’s shoulder only hurts when the A’s are facing Moyer or his ilk. Or it would be nice if they got Nomar, or if Chavez stayed healthy.
mikeA - March 2, 2009
Platoo barada Nico
iglew - March 2, 2009
you didn't say the words right!!!
Prepare to be taken out by Nico’s boomstick…
scatterbrian - March 3, 2009
ZOMG, really?
I would never have known that that was a possibility if you had not pointed it out. I must be some kind of idiot, or something.
PaulThomas - March 2, 2009
there's a pretty good chance you are either an idiot or something
oakinboston - March 2, 2009
PaulThomas - March 2, 2009
You've come a long way, baby
FreeSeatUpgrade - March 2, 2009
My usage of stupid internet memes has at least quadrupled since 2006 : /
PaulThomas - March 2, 2009
This.
Elvez - March 3, 2009
That is AWESOME.
baseballgirl - March 2, 2009
clearly my failed joke warranted that
glad im of some use.
oakinboston - March 3, 2009
He has a high ld%, I would expect it to be above average, and it's above average for his career...
Obviously, I wasn’t arguing he’s likely to put up a .356 babip, but the relatively pro-Hannahan people, such as myself, are only arguing that he’ll hit around his projection for this year, whereas a bunch of people think he’s going to repeat last year or else just want to whine about how he sucks and not give it more thought.
mikeA - March 2, 2009
The Bendix formula put his projected 2008 BABIP at .304
I won’t claim that’s the be-all and end-all of hitters’ BABIP, especially since I think it’s undergone some revisions since they published the spreadsheet that I’m looking at, but it’s a major data point.
Assuming the following, all estimated from fangraphs except the BABIP line:
BABIP: .304
K: 25 of PA
BB: 12 of PA
HR/FB: 7% of FB
FB: 41 of batted balls
ISO: .130
378 batted balls => 11 HR
367 BIP =>112 other hits
I get a projected line of .233/.325/.363… not exactly faboo.
PaulThomas - March 2, 2009
That line + good defense = good backup
mikeA - March 2, 2009
That's basically a Mike Gallego hitting line
but Gallego could backup at 2B (excellent) and SS (good), not just 3B. Hannahan is unproven anywhere but 3B.
Nick - March 2, 2009
He'd be a lot less valuable if our starting 3B wasn't going to get injured
and he’s worse than Gallego, but that is no crime.
mikeA - March 2, 2009
I don't think he's a worse hitter than Gallego necessarily
but that’s a bit like saying someone’s not a worse baserunner than Jack Cust.
Nick - March 2, 2009
According to TotalZone and scouting reports
He was above average at 2b in the minors too. And he’s recently said that he’s willing to play SS too (most likely because he’s willing to make 400k a year). I think Gallego who hits a bit better is Hannahan’s upside to the A’s.
vignette17 - March 2, 2009
Well, according to his minor-league stats at baseball-reference.com
Hannahan has played 92 games at 2B and 1 at SS in the minors. That doesn’t seem like a lot of experience at 2B, and none at SS. And even if he’s a good 3B, that’s still a matter of moving the wrong way on the defensive spectrum in the majors.
I mean, he might be good, but if the A’s want him to backup SS and 2B they better give him a whole lot of innings at each position in Spring Training, and maybe even send him to Sacto for some more work afterwards. Learning two difficult positions with infrequent playing time in the majors is a big, big risk.
Nick - March 2, 2009
OK, I have no problem with that statement
I don’t think Hannahan is or should be first on the 40-man roster chopping block, for what it’s worth. I do think he’s a significantly worse backup option than Nomar, however
PaulThomas - March 2, 2009
I definitely agree with that, especially because it's a huge difference as backup 1B
but I don’t think he should be cut from the 40 man roster under any circumstances as long as Chavez is the primary 3B, and they haven’t found someone better to back up (who won’t get hurt like Nomar).
mikeA - March 2, 2009
that's... exactly the position of the pro-hannahan people
xbhaskarx - March 2, 2009
Are we so sure Nomar will get hurt
if he is primarily a backup INF and pinch hitter? That’s a lot different than starting 80-100 games.
Nico - March 2, 2009
we're not sure nomar or chavez will get injured
but the probability is great enough that hannahan should be kept around in AAA just in case.
xbhaskarx - March 2, 2009
Well I can't see ANY reason not to keep Hannahan at AAA
since he has an option left. Would would the downside be (other than him blocking the 7 Chase Headleys the A’s have who are beating down the door in Sacramento)?
Nico - March 2, 2009
If I'm reading this discussion properly
the downside is that someone else must be cut from the 40-man instead.
But I think just about everyone agrees there are at least one or two candidates in line before Jack, if not more.
iglew - March 2, 2009
I'm one of them, relatively speaking
I just don’t think he’s going to have a BABIP in the .320s or higher…
PaulThomas - March 2, 2009
PECOTA projects his OPS to be about 50 points higher.
xbhaskarx - March 2, 2009
Its not a matter of disrespect
I agree with xbhaskarx that Hannahan can hit better then he showed in 2008. The problem is I don’t see him in a back-up role in Oakland if Nomar gets signed.
And if I’m counting right, Hannahan is out of options so he needs to be on the 25 man roster or the A’s risk losing him. If he gets placed on waivers I think he gets picked up by another team for all the reasons you just listed.
grover - March 2, 2009
Which years are you counting as option years?
Cause I thought he had one left…
Danny - March 2, 2009
he has one left
mikeA - March 2, 2009
I was counting 2005 but...
There is a chance the Tigers didn’t bother to put Hannahan on the 40 man roster the first year it was necessary to protect him. If he didn’t make Detroit’s 40 man until 2006 then he still has an option.
grover - March 2, 2009
I believe he actually still has 2 option years left
His contract was purchased in 2006, and he was then optioned down, using one. In late 2006, he was outrighted to the Tigers minors. In 2007, he was traded to Oakland and went straight onto the 25-man roster. He’s never been optioned down since.
He’d have to clear optional waivers if the A’s sent him down after May or so, but from what SuSlu tells us no one ever gets claimed on those. To all practical purposes, he still has 2 options left.
PaulThomas - March 2, 2009
Does outrighting a guy to the minors re-set the options?
1st option in 2006.
2nd option in 2007. He played 101 games for Toledo.
No option in 2008.
So 1 option remaining.
grover - March 2, 2009
Don't you have to clear waivers before getting outrighted?
That would seem like a legit basis for not using up an option year.
Nick - March 2, 2009
I thought Detroit purchased his contract again in 2007
But they didn’t.
I really wish Cots would keep track of options as well as contract info.
grover - March 2, 2009
Yeah, that guy needs to pull his weight.
mikev - March 2, 2009
Absolutely!
On a serious note, it would be good to have a single site that kept track of transaction info such as we’ve been discussing.
grover - March 2, 2009
No option used in 2007
He spent the entire season either a. not on the 40-man roster, or b. on the 25-man roster.
Options are used when a player is both a. on the 40-man and b. not on the 25-man. At no point in 2007 did he fulfill both of those conditions.
PaulThomas - March 2, 2009
He didn't make the 2007 40 man for Detroit?
Where are you getting your transaction info?
grover - March 2, 2009
i get mine from the mlb.com site
it’s an arduous process. Go to thebaseballcube to find out which years are in question, then go month-by-month on the team transactions page for those seasons in question to determine if and when a player’s contract was purchased, and if and when he was sent down again. That way you can look out for the 20 days loophole, etc.
That’s the only way to be even at least reasonably sure, short of getting confirmation from SuSlu or Urban, which I seek to do anytime we’re in contact with them. Urban has confirmed Hanny has at least one option left.
notsellingjeans - March 2, 2009
Meanwhile... forgo any hope at having a sex life
AN needs interns to handle that kind of monotonous work.
grover - March 2, 2009
+1
flipgatey3 - March 2, 2009
Agreed, on both counts
Mrs. Jeans often chafes at my AN time. Which, in turn, leaves me, uh…chafing, too.
notsellingjeans - March 3, 2009
word on the street is he has an option left.
xbhaskarx - March 2, 2009
Huston knows, even all the way in Colorado.
theblackpearl - March 2, 2009
Probably 2008.
thejd44 - March 2, 2009
Hannahan as a gold glove defensive player?
he doesn’t have the bat for that
travdog6 - March 4, 2009
+1
no way hannahan is removed from the 40 man roster even if the a’s sign nomar.
hannahan will go to AAA, waiting for a chavy / nomar injury.
xbhaskarx - March 2, 2009
yep
Sacramento’s team is going to be, once again, incredibly good.
notsellingjeans - March 2, 2009
Hannahan was drafted in 2001
Doesn’t that mean he used his first option in 2005, which means he’d be out of options in 2009.
grover - March 2, 2009
Only if they put him on the 40 man roster in 2005
Did they?
Danny - March 2, 2009
Answered above
grover - March 2, 2009
Would you prefer to see
Yung Chi Chen or Eric Patterson get it in the neck instead or Hannahan?
grover - March 2, 2009
Damn...
“instead of Hannahan?”
grover - March 2, 2009
i know nothing about chen, so him.
xbhaskarx - March 2, 2009
OK
I hereby declare Jeff Gray, Yung Chi Chen and Ben Copeland at the top of the Cut List should a move need to happen.
grover - March 2, 2009
but only two roster spots are needed.
xbhaskarx - March 2, 2009
Well yeah... I'm offering a variety of options
Adding options is the only way to try and hold baseline prices in this economy.
grover - March 2, 2009
The interesting thing to me
Is that the hot stove isn’t done yet. The A’s could theoretically still sign a couple more players at least. Maybe Dennys Reyes and even someone like Mark Mulder.
I was just writing a post about this, so I’m glad you beat me to it Taj. I do look forward to hopefully seeing Ellis and Cabrera turn the double play. I think those two could be something special. And there’s nothing like a cheap, one-year deal to motivate a guy to have a great year. I mean the A’s have three guys on the roster now, Cabrera, Holliday and Giambi (if G wants to keep playing beyond this year) who could be playing for a bigger payday in the future. Cabrera resisted the A’s for as long as he could. I don’t necessarily like giving up a draft pick, but at least the A’s I think had adequately, although not necessarily terribly impressively filled a hole.
It should be a good mix this year of really young and upcoming talent with seasoned vets who have been battle tested. I’m really liking the way the offense is coming together for the most part.
I think this could be a better year than what most baseball fans outside of the East Bay might think as long as the injury-prone remain relatively healthy and don’t miss really long stretches.
Tyler Bleszinski - March 2, 2009
mulder would be a minor league deal
i’m not sure the a’s should even bother, considering they already have jerome, edgar, and one of outman/giogon, plus MACS.
xbhaskarx - March 2, 2009
I'm strangely sentimental on Mulder
If all he asks for is a basic AAA-level minor league deal (with a major league bonus should he earn a roster spot) than I say sign him and give him a chance to re-build his career.
grover - March 2, 2009
I completely agree
Tyler Bleszinski - March 2, 2009
Me too - and I wouldn't count out Mulder
coming back as an awfully good lefty-reliever. Take him on a minor league deal and see what he has left in his arm.
Nico - March 2, 2009
Minor league deal for Mulder is a no brainer
fansince1980 - March 2, 2009
So since Duke is getting an MRI on his elbow, will Beane start talking with Mulder in case the news is bad?
I know there’s a lot of pitching prospects on the verge but we do need an experienced starter to pass on some knowledge.
LoneStranger - March 3, 2009
It'd definitely be low-risk for the A's
Flashfire - March 2, 2009
i have no problem with that
i just don’t think it matters one way or the other.
and it certainly doesn’t matter for the 25 man roster and most likely not even for the 40 man roster.
so basically it’s barely worth discussing.
xbhaskarx - March 2, 2009
I agree
I would like the A’s to offer Mulder a minor league deal and see what happens.
A'sfansince1970 - March 2, 2009
As in
Let’s hang out in robes and see what develops?
Leopold Bloom - March 2, 2009
That's what I was thinking
Wait, is this thing on?
67MARQUEZ - March 2, 2009
SNUGGIE!
Tyler Bleszinski - March 2, 2009
Noooooooooo
I don’t want to look like a dorky monk at a baseball game!
Flashfire - March 2, 2009
I actually find the thought of attending a baseball game dressed like a monk strangely amusing
PaulThomas - March 2, 2009
I actually did
Back in 2001 (I think) I got talked into shaving my head into a monk cut for a RenFaire in Gilroy, and I went to one of the playoffs games vs. the Yankees the next day, and sat out in right field bleachers.
zealotus - March 2, 2009
blankets are soooo inconvinient
Future Ed - March 2, 2009
no kidding!
before I got my Snuggie, I couldn’t even change the channel, let alone answer my phone! My hands used to be under the blanket, rendering them completely useless. Not any more….thanks Snuggie!
scatterbrian - March 2, 2009
I'm still pissed that the Snuggie ripped off the Slanket.
that the Snuggie ripped off the Slanket. Though maybe the Slanket folks just rebranded as the Snugge. I like Slanket better, but I’d been intrigued by the ads in SkyMall for a while.
The Snuggie pub crawl could perhaps morph into a bizarre promotion at the Coliseum…
batgirl - March 2, 2009
did you see bill mahers riff on the snuggie?
greendatitiz - March 2, 2009
Yes and it was great
Tyler Bleszinski - March 2, 2009
I'd like to see how he's throwing first
Sure, could be a low-risk move, but it could also be low-reward. And he could be taking innings away from guys the A’s are trying to develop for more than just nostalgic purposes.
scatterbrian - March 2, 2009
I'd take a trip to Sacto to see Mulder.
LoneStranger - March 2, 2009
See? The signing just paid for itself.
Nico - March 2, 2009
totally agree
I’d actually love to see Mulder back if he’s healthy.
batgirl - March 2, 2009
Slightly OT
but I’m wondering what high draft-pick signing bonuses and contracts will look like given the collapse in FA salaries this year.
Nick - March 2, 2009
well he likes green
scatterbrian - March 2, 2009
Why does every Angels fan
look like that
ATarHeel - March 2, 2009
Like What?
Douchebags?
Syphon - March 2, 2009
QOTM
Leopold Bloom - March 2, 2009
The shorter dude looks like the Fullerton equivalent of Dale Gribble
Nick - March 2, 2009
they're all going for "The Scioscia"
scatterbrian - March 2, 2009
Remind me neveer to walk around
In the A’s equivalent of those two guys get up.
jeffro - March 2, 2009
there's no A's equivalent of that
mikeA - March 2, 2009
Oh yeah?
Those guys are at every baseball game everywhere.
The Dodgers-ChiSox game on MLB yesterday had some good stereotypical midwestern b’ball fans: Muscle shirt, sunburn, mustache, stuffing their faces with a pile of condiments hiding a hot dog in the middle.
Mark H - March 2, 2009
A's fans are very attractive people who have unimpeachable style
mikeA - March 2, 2009
Also, there's me
nevermoor - March 2, 2009
That would describe me.
OldhamA - March 3, 2009
i have seen
these two guys in Concord. Well, at least their A’s cousins.
jeffro - March 4, 2009
Why are they posing with Usher?
I thought this was about oCab?
chuckcheeze - March 2, 2009
Is that a syringe in his left hand?
chuckcheeze - March 2, 2009
Oh god, unpop it, please!
NateHST - March 2, 2009
I would like to know
If anyone has an article or any information about Cabrera being a bad locker room personality.
I remember NSJ saying that he was a problem. If anyone has any info I’d love to see it
ATarHeel - March 2, 2009
he'll definitely
be pissed off after being forced to come to the A’s! lol
chuckcheeze - March 2, 2009
You have the info right there: people don't like him for reasons that are not entirely clear
mikeA - March 2, 2009
This is what I remember
NSJ saying.
67MARQUEZ - March 2, 2009
A's SS of the future...
Ivan DeJeus Jr. broke his leg on a play at-the-plate and will probably miss the entire season
athleticsBB4life - March 2, 2009
1) are you going to post this in every thread?
2) he’s not on the a’s, chances are he will never be on the a’s
3) are you going to misspell dejesus every time you post this?
xbhaskarx - March 2, 2009
it was a cut n' paste...
slow your roll, we’re all friends here. We’ve had a lot of converstion about DE JESUS (how the A’s should trade for him) on this site, I didn’t realize you would be so upset that I posted it on 2 threads.
athleticsBB4life - March 2, 2009
Hate to hear that news.
I doubt he’d end up with the A’s either way, but i’ve been interested to see what kind of player he turns into at the major league level. Too bad.
JPShark - March 2, 2009
No kidding - what a shame when talented young guys get major injuries
(and they’re not on the Yankees or Angels).
Nico - March 2, 2009
That was quick
TheRaiderWay - March 2, 2009
he looks better
with the mini-fro
chuckcheeze - March 2, 2009
photoshop is quick
xbhaskarx - March 2, 2009
At least BB is throwing some money out there this season
Holliday, Cabrera, Giambi – we haven’t seen spending like this in a while.
The best part is we don’t have to think about automatic ground outs 3-4 times per game with Crosby out.
chuckcheeze - March 2, 2009
Um, just so you know
Cabrera isn’t that much better at the plate than Crosby is. I’m sure there will be plenty of groundouts still.
mikev - March 2, 2009
But he gets a lot more RBIs
then Crosby, which will go a long way. AND he’s fast, so a ground ball might be a hit instead of an out.
A'sfansince1970 - March 2, 2009
Shakes head
Decides to leave it alone
nevermoor - March 2, 2009
Depends what you mean by "much better"
OPS+ over the past 4 years:
Cabrera: 88
Crosby: 80
3 years
Cabrera: 90
Crosby: 71
2 years
Cabrera: 89
Crosby: 73
Last year
Cabrera: 84
Crosby: 76
Danny - March 2, 2009
So you could say that they would be, potentially, pretty similar hitters this year?
mikev - March 2, 2009
Potentially, sure
I’d expect Cabrera to be 5-10 runs better than Crosby with the bat.
Danny - March 2, 2009
So about 10 points of OPS+, which is about 40 points of OPS, which is about 8 runs over a full season.
And with strikeout and walk rates that are both lower than Crosby’s, there will be no shortage of groundouts.
andeux - March 2, 2009
I like Orlando Cabrera
he seems very dedicated to winning and has confidence, two things Crosby lacks. This season is getting better all the time!
A'sfansince1970 - March 2, 2009
There are many things that Crosby is not particularly good at
But questioning his “dedicat[ion] to winning” is silly. I certainly don’t know Bobby Crosby on a personal level and I assume that you probably do not either.
He might not be very good at contributing to the success of this team, but accusing him of not wanting to seems baseless.
SkipT - March 2, 2009
I don't think Crosby wants to learn
He seems to do the same dumb thing over and over again as if saying “this is just how I am!” His act just got old. Someone who isn’t so great and refuses to learn or change just doesn’t appear to, in my opinion, have much desire to win. That’s all I was saying.
A'sfansince1970 - March 2, 2009
well what you're saying is nonsense
scatterbrian - March 2, 2009
Oh, that's a very effective comment!
How is it nonsense? Tell me of one situation when Crosby listened to coaches or changed his stance at the plate? He should have been shipped off long ago, and this is his final chance to adjust his approach. I hope for his sake he doesn’t blow it, or it’s Adam Piattsville for him!
A'sfansince1970 - March 2, 2009
just this offseason
Crosby worked with McGwire and Holliday on his stance at the plate. That’s not my idea of an unwillingness to learn.
More to the point, however, is that you have no idea about any coaching dialogue between Crosby and the A’s.
scatterbrian - March 2, 2009
Hmm...
… he finally started working on his offense the year before his contract expires? Isn’t that convenient.
Indeed, Bobby C has shown a a willingness to learn this offseason (when he has a financial incentive to do so). Before that, he hadn’t worked on shit, other than (1) complaining about the A’s training staff (a justified complaint given their record over the last 2-3 years) and (2) digging a large hole in the left-handed hitter’s batters box while swinging at sliders in the dirt.
In other words, you can give the “Bobby Crosby’s willing to learn” argument a rest. The guy spent the last three years playing like absolute garbage; I have no sympathy for his current predicament (making $5.25 million to sit on the bench).
Uncle Charlie - March 2, 2009
That is not true, he changed his stance last year, and has
changed it multiple times.
theblackpearl - March 2, 2009
Great
So he has no idea what he’s doing.
Another strike against him.
Uncle Charlie - March 2, 2009
for people who never liked him, he could never do
anything right.
theblackpearl - March 2, 2009
Dude...
… I liked Bobby Crosby when he first got called up. I was on board with letting Tejada walk, and going with a left-side of Chavez and Crosby. And then… Crosby turned into an absolutely terrible MLB player. And so… I have given up on him.
It’s not a question of whether I ever liked Bobby Crosby. It’s a question of looking at the facts, and realizing that Bobby Crosby is not the A’s SS of the future… He’s 29 years old and he stinks. Those are facts.
The fact is, Bobby probably got overrated based on his one really good year in the minors. No more than four years ago, Baseball Prospectus called him a future MVP candidate. Whether it was the injuries that derailed his development, or whether he simply wasn’t ever that good, we’ll probably never know…
Uncle Charlie - March 2, 2009
This is Baseball Prospectus on Bobby Crosby in 2005
“There was some concern that, at 6’3”, Crosby might be too tall to comfortably handle short, but he turned out to be one of the best in the league in his Rookie of the Year campaign. He has quick hands and feet, positions himself well, and sports a strong arm that allows him to set up deeper than most. The .239 batting average was an outlier, and Crosby should continue to improve his power and plate judgment as he progresses. A championship-caliber player about to happen."
A championship caliber player about to happen? … oops!! That ranks right up there with putting Josh Phelps on the cover of the book a few years back. Even BP can miss badly sometimes.
Uncle Charlie - March 2, 2009
you are correct
BP did predict bigger things for Crosby, and whether it was injuries, being overrated, or a combination, he just hasn’t worked out.
I was really only taking issue with the comment the Crosby isn’t dedicated to winning.
scatterbrian - March 3, 2009
Please
He could never do anything right even for the people who liked him!
grover - March 2, 2009
theblackpearl is right about Crosby changing his stance last year
Every single person on AN mentioned it over and over at the start of the 08 season — he basically looked like he was emulating Kendall, slapping everything to RF, and there was endless debate for a month over whether he should be experimenting in AAA or in Oakland.
Now, the adjustments didn’t work. But A’sfansince1970 is claiming that Crosby “isn’t dedicated to winning” and when challenged s/he demanded, “Tell me of one situation when Crosby listened to coaches or changed his stance at the plate?”
So here’s the answer: last year. He completely changed his stance and approach at the plate.
Nick - March 2, 2009
he did, it was quite obvious
but as the season wore on he stood farther and farther away from the plate. By the end of the season he was facing the pitcher with his head a bit more than earlier years, but otherwise looked pretty much like he had before.
OaklandSi - March 2, 2009
Yeah, but I think that's because what he tried didn't work
Or, maybe he didn’t give it enough time. Who knows?
I think that’s probably why players are so reluctant to make major overhauls in this way. If it doesn’t immediately improve things, they’re left wondering whether they should stick with it until it clicks, or dump it because it’s not working and go back to what’s familiar (and, in Crosby’s case, what’s familiar was responsible for being a 1st rounder and ROY — his new stance never got him anything).
Nick - March 2, 2009
agreed
in earlier years he had said that he hesitated to change things that had given him success as he was coming up through the minors.
OaklandSi - March 2, 2009
I feel bad for the guy
Look, we’ve all complained about Crosby, although I was one of his defenders at the start of last season. But I don’t have any reason to think he’s a bad guy, on or off the field; it’s not his fault that he’s injury-prone; and this is his dream, what he’s wanted to do for as long as he can remember, and after a promising start, and feeling like it was right there for him, it’s all falling apart for him.
At least his GM can probably relate (except for the part about having any success at all in the majors).
Nick - March 2, 2009
I agree, I don't question his desire
I still remember during 2007 fanfest when a fan asked him quite bluntly about his lack of production. while many booed the fan who asked him Crosby said, “No, let me answer him. It’s a fair criticism.” and he proceeded to discuss his disappointment with himself, and his commitment to work on his game and get better.
Also, in 2008 you couldn’t really call him injury-prone. He just couldn’t stay away from that long loopy swing, far away from the plate stance. He has not been able to break those bad habits. Will his work with McGwire finally do the trick? Who knows? But evidently the A’s aren’t waiting around to see.
OaklandSi - March 2, 2009
Yeah, injuries didn't do him in last year
although all his time on the DL since his ROY campaign might be partly (largely?) responsible for his failure to develop. How could he not wonder how different things would be if he hadn’t messed up his ankle sliding into Ramon Hernandez in Baltimore? Or if the A’s had diagnosed his back problem earlier?
As to the Fanfest story…you know, it’s kind of a cliché to say that sports teaches us how to handle failure and disappointment, as much as it teaches us to be winners. But we usually think of high school or college kids learning that lesson, not 29-year-old professionals. He could still turn it around and become a productive player, I suppose, and he could of course have a very happy life doing something else in baseball (as Beane has done) or away from baseball, for that matter. But there’s no getting around the fact that, so far, his baseball career has been an enormously frustrating disappointment, and it’s unlikely to turn around.
Nick - March 2, 2009
I don't think it's that Crosby lacks desire
or that he has never tried to make adjustments. I think it’s that he appears incapable of making, and sustaining, any effective adjustments over time – which means he may be a great guy but he’ll probably never be a good player.
Nico - March 2, 2009
And the nail has been hit squarely on the head...
… Bobby Crosby may be a good guy, he may have the desire to be a great baseball player, and he may even be willing to make adjustments to get better, but if that’s all that it took to be the A’s starting shortstop, then I’d be down in Arizona right now getting ready for my game tomorrow afternoon. Unfortunately, the ability to actually sustain success is also necessary; whether because of injuries or plain old lack of talent, Bobby C has not shown the ability to sustain success…
Uncle Charlie - March 2, 2009
+1
jeepers - March 2, 2009
I seem to remember him starting the season with a new stance...
Indeed, he was even standing close to the plate for a while, with a really wide, low stance. But then he slowly crept away from the plate and eventually wound up back to the same old swing he had before.
Elvez - March 2, 2009
didn't Crosby start backing off the plate again
after getting hit by a pitch?
I agree that Crosby isn’t very good at baseball (compared to other players) but I don’t question his desire and I don’t hate him as a person.
micdog2001 - March 2, 2009
This is how I recall it too.
When the season started, he was much closer to the plate and hitting the ball with authority. He absolutely murdered a ball to win a game played in freezing temperatures at Cleveland. For whatever reason, he moved back off the plate again and resumed his tiresome lunges at pitches on the outside part of the plate. Why the coaches let that happen, I’ll never figure out.
Monday Fan - March 3, 2009
I don't think that's the case at all
Bobby has altered his swing, tried to change his stance and approach. He obviously wants to get better. I think it’s just a matter of him maybe not having the ability to be a productive major league player more than him not WANTING it.
Tyler Bleszinski - March 2, 2009
True, but that is new.
IIRC there have been quite a few instances in the past where, at least based on quotes he’s given, he’s seemed completely unwilling to modify his approach.
The hitting-with-McGwire thing was encouraging to me for exactly that reason; not so much “maybe McGwire taught him how to hit” but more “maybe Crosby’s finally evaluating himself and making some adjustments.” But on the flip side of that, there’s been this fear of “how long till he reverts to Crosby-of-old and gets stuck in the same rut again” because of his past (perceived) behavior.
I still don’t think this speaks to a desire to win, more just a mental ability to make adjustments.
oblique - March 2, 2009
+1
Nick - March 2, 2009
Dave Cameron says its far better than I can
http://ussmariner.com/2009/02/17/geoff-baker-the-media-and-judging-motives
SkipT - March 2, 2009
Totally Awesome!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Very Happy. Pumped my fist after I saw this. Crosby must be like “Damn, thought I had it.” And then proceed to mope and complain for the rest of the year, telling everyone that will listen how “I just need an opportunity and I will show the A’s what I can do.” Hopefully he accepts his role because I think he and the A’s are stuck with each other this year.
jasonlbe - March 2, 2009
Maybe a mentoring idea again?
Have OCab teach Crosby how to be a good SS and effective hitter with swagger?
A'sfansince1970 - March 2, 2009
hasn't McGwire
been doing that this offseason? well at least the effective hitter with swagger part
and bobby is so different physically than o-cab i can’t imagine they approach the position the same way.
i’m very upset the A’s signed o-cab and didn’t give their ROY one more chance now that he has some lineup protection
IBSlater - March 2, 2009
Lineup protection effecting production is a myth
SkipT - March 2, 2009
+6548756297840469870986727865789326409864783925689769
mikev - March 2, 2009
unless your name is andre ethier
9Custs - March 2, 2009
hahahahaha, brilliant answer
ATarHeel - March 2, 2009
Good post Taj. My thoughts:
Other positive considerations for the A’s:
*The A’s will probably finish with one of the 15 best records in baseball this year. So, this was the year to invest in a Type A free agent, when it wouldn’t cost a first-rounder. Next offseason, sure, the A’s might re-sign O-Cab, or Holliday, or Duke…but you won’t see them spring for a Type A FA from another team if their pick isn’t protected. And I don’t think it will be protected next year. They are going to have at least a pretty good season.
*Next year, the team will have the flexibility to offer Cabrera arbitration, if a better shortstop replacement hasn’t presented itself internally (which is very likely, unfortunately). That means they have one more option at starting shortstop for the 2010 season – never a bad thing.
*If another team suffers a shortstop injury this spring and Bobby Crosby magically develops trade value, he may garner the equivalent value of the second-round pick (approximately #60-63) in return via trade.
*On that note, somebody asked up in the thread where the A’s second-round pick would’ve been. As of today – after the Cabrera signing – it would be exactly #60 overall. When Manny signs, it will be #61 overall. If a few other type B FA’s (like Reyes) sign major league deals, it will be around 62-63 overall, since those players garner compensatory draft picks in the sandwich round for the teams that lost them.
The #60 overall pick just isn’t that big of a deal. It means the A’s don’t have a pick between #13 overall and #91, but heck, maybe it means they’ll splurge on an over-slot talent again somewhere.
*If Mark Ellis winds up on the shelf for an extended period of time, the A’s still have two starting middle infielders to open the season. In this scenario, I’d imagine Cabrera would be the one who shifted over to 2b, even though he’s the better defender.
*Having Crosby as the team’s backup MIF for the time being is a slight upgrade over Pennington/Petit, even if we’re only talking 1/2 a win. Perhaps more importantly, it allows the team to start Pennington and Petit in Sacramento so that they can continue to get daily at-bats. It’s still possible one of that duo will be the team’s opening-day 2010 shortstop.
*O-Cab still has a very good chance of being a Type A again next season, due to the dearth of good American League shortstops.
So, unless there was some special language about promising to not offer him arbitration next offseason (which certainly could’ve happened), here’s the enviable position the A’s could find themselves in next offseason:
Cabrera is a Type A again, which is a win-win for the A’s: if they want him back and the feeling is mutual, they simply offer him arbitration, and his figure is based partially on this year’s low salary of $4M; or, they offer him, he declines, and his market value is again depressed by the Type A noose around his neck. Or, best case scenario, another team signs him and the A’s get two draft picks in the ’10 draft themselves.
The deeper I’ve looked at this, the more I’ve liked it.
notsellingjeans - March 2, 2009
If Manny signs with the Dodgers, which everyone seems to expect, it will still be #60
Don’t know how many other unsigned compensation-worthy players there are. Each of them would knock it down by another slot.
PaulThomas - March 2, 2009
that's the second time I made that mistake, thanks Paul
After Manny signs, we’re looking at only Type B’s Reyes, GruzielaniekIdlfkl (sp), and Paul Byrd remaining among compensated FAs, I believe (since no one will sign Sheets).
notsellingjeans - March 2, 2009
I think Byrd's sitting out the first half, like Sheets (although Byrd's doing it voluntarily)
so the pick will probably be #62, maybe #61. Someone is going to sign Reyes, but I could see Grudz hanging it up at this point. Although he’s certainly worth a one-year deal for somebody.
PaulThomas - March 2, 2009
Wonder what Byrd will do with all that free time
Nico - March 2, 2009
Well, you know what they say about idle hands
PaulThomas - March 2, 2009
GruzielaniekIdlfkl (sp)
Actually, I think you got that one exactly right.
mikev - March 2, 2009
On Pennington and Petit
Assuming neither makes the A’s out of Spring Training (injuries could change that, of course…), I’m really curious about what the A’s will do with them.
Billy seems not to like Petit’s game for some reason. That would make one expect to see Pennington as the starting SS at Sacto. But the A’s also seem to see Pennington’s role as a sort of Mike Gallego II — excellent defensive backup IF, who’s adequate offensively (we hope). In that case, I’d expect them to want Pennington to play at 2B and 3B as well as SS, to practice playing that role in AAA. Which would mean Petit could be the main SS for the Rivercats (who, I think I’ve mentioned before, should really be called the Solons).
Nick - March 2, 2009
Well done Billy (reposted from A's Sign O-Cab thread)!
Over the last 3 years, Crosby has been the 42nd, 47th, and 39th best offensive SS according to VORP (Value Over Replacement Player). Cabrera has been the 16th, 10th, and 13th best offensive SS. While Crosby has put up numbers worthy of a mediocre backup SS, Cabrera has been an above average starting SS. Over the last 3 years, he has been the 10th best offensive SS…and his 2-time Gold Glove defense may move him up a notch or 2 in overall value:
Average VORP for SS over 3 years
———————————————-
75.0 Hanley Ramirez
57.1 Derek Jeter
56.0 Jose Reyes
51.6 Jimmy Rollins
45.4 Carlos Guillen
39.0 Miguel Tejada
37.4 Michael Young
32.4 Edgar Renteria
27.7 Rafael Furcal
27.1 Orlando Cabrera
25.3 Jhonny Peralta
…30 other SS…
-3.8 Bobby Crosby
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=314858
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=204674
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=101087
Cabrera over Crosby is a huge improvement at SS for us. FWIW, Cabrera was ranked the highest of all of our free agent signings (until we sign Manny :) ):
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=jp-freeagenttracker111008
4) Matt Holliday, OF (if Matt was a free agent, I’d put him 4th)
26) Orlando Cabrera, SS
31) Jason Giambi, DH
49) Russ Springer, RP
63) Dennys Reyes, RP (hopefully)
64) Nomar Garciaparra, UT (hopefully)
…so the A’s could wind up with 5 of the top 64 free agents this year…while the Angels have a net loss of 2 of the top 32 free agents (Teixeira, K-Rod, Garland, Anderson, but they add Abreu and Fuentes). I’m liking our chances more and more in the AL West.
BillyWannabeane - March 2, 2009
Here's what I like about our position players
There is a decent chance, given natural progression, that the A’s will be better at C;
One way or another, they will almost certainly be better at 1B;
If— big if— Ellis is healthy they will be better at 2B, but probably not worse in any event;
They will unquestionably be better at SS and 3B;
They will be better in LF
They could— a la catcher— be better in CF
They should be better in RF
About the same at DH.
I see no regression, and at least 5, probably 6-7, and possibly all 9 positions where there will be improvement.
windyfelix - March 2, 2009
And the bench could be better, too, if they sign Nomar
and have Crosby as a backup.
Nico - March 2, 2009
Regardless of what happens with Crosby or Cabrera
this team just got that much deeper…which is never a bad thing. I see this move as more of “added insurance for injuries” more than I see it as Cabrera replacing Crosby straight up.
Sure makes spring training a hell of lot more interesting, though.
mrod - March 2, 2009
Crosby has said he's never played any position other than SS
since turning pro. Cabrera does have some pro experience at 2B. Since Ellis is coming off of surgery, I imagine he won’t be starting every day at 2B in the early part of the season….so it wouldn’t surprise me to see Crosby at SS and Cabrera at 2B sometimes.
OaklandSi - March 2, 2009
Is it a bad thing
that I like this move simply because I can now officially be excited about our chances this year? Of course, I do think this is a good deal as well (esp in light of NSJ’s comment/post), but as a baseball fan, this will make at least the first half fun. Hopefully I won’t feel hopeless after we give up a run or two, unlike last year.
DyeLongJustice - March 2, 2009
I DONT GET IT
Why are we going to pay croz 5.5 mil to sit on the bench. We are paying o. cab less but also giving up a F-ing draft pick. Is he really that much better than crosby for that price.
9Custs - March 2, 2009
As noted, second round draft pick. Almost meaningless when the A's stockpile those things.
And there’s nothing I’ve seen that says Crosby is going to stay here or not yet.
Flashfire - March 2, 2009
The draft pick isn't that big a deal
It’s kind of interesting how much people seem to care about picks now. In the past, they weren’t thought of that much (though obviously thought of higher by fans of small market teams like ours). Now we sign a new SS and everyone is questioning the merits of losing the pick. Draft picks are important if not crucial to a small market team. But the baseball draft is not like the basketball or football draft. Players on average are so far away from the majors that we can’t properly evaluate all of them.
First round picks are the only picks that we see an abundance of players who became above average. After the first round, busts are very common and almost as common are success stories like Rich Harden or Tim Hudson in the later rounds. Then there are the holdouts, the overslot bonus babies who can be good prospects because it takes money to lure them away from college or from football or from college football. Truth is the second round pick is a marginal asset, something which costs a bit of money but is only a bit more than a lottery ticket.
That second round pick can almost certainly be regained by trading Crosby and eating a million or two (which also happens to be a second round pick’s price tag). And that’s not even considering Cabrera could get us a 1st round pick and a supplemental next year (Hope the Astros finish with the 16th best record and don’t bring back Tejada). Point is there’s no Stephen Strasburg at number 60 in the draft and Cabrera will almost certainly not hurt the team.
As for the deal as a whole, it’s not that big an upgrade unless you feel really strongly about UZR as a defensive stat. Cabrera is probably a small upgrade but a known small upgrade. Crosby’s standard deviation on projected production is much much larger than OCab. We know what we’re getting. There’s a couple of small reasons to not like the signing but a whole bevy of reasons to like it (see NSJ’s post).
vignette17 - March 2, 2009
thought it was a first rounder
boy is my face red
9Custs - March 2, 2009
A's draft picks last 3 years AROUND the 60th pick
2008 #58 Tyson Ross
2007 #59 Corey Brown
2006 #66 Trevor Cahill
calas - March 2, 2009
Brett Anderson #55 for Arizona Diamondbacks
calas - March 2, 2009
Anderson drafted in 2006
calas - March 2, 2009
The A's are good drafters
But that could very easily be one good pitcher and two flame outs. In fact, that could be the most likely outcome. I’m not saying that there are no good players around 60 in the draft. But the list of guys who flame out there is larger than those who become Kurt Suzuki. That spot is not worthless but it’s worth giving up (assuming the A’s couldn’t get the CWS to do a sign and trade for a prospect less valuable than a second round pick) if one thinks it improves the big league team and said big league team is close to the playoffs.
vignette17 - March 2, 2009
Agreed
… not to mention, you’re probably just as likely to find a stud with the 150th-pick as you are with the 60th-pick.
Once you get past the first 10-20 picks of the draft (maximum), there are very few “sure things” (and even in the top 10-20, the “sure things” are few and far between). We’ll still get about 50 draft picks next year; I’m not too worried about the lost second-round pick.
Uncle Charlie - March 2, 2009
By that logic, the A's should be happy to give up their first-round pick instead
since their recent first-rounders have included Brad Sullivan, Brian Snyder, Richie Robnett, Cliff Pennington, and Landon Powell.
PaulThomas - March 2, 2009
They should certainly save $25,000 and skip the Rule 5 draft!
Nico - March 2, 2009
or just give that 25K to me.
mikev - March 2, 2009
i think it was $100k in the case of ryan goleski.
i remember when they got the #1 pick, numerous sources speculated they wanted soria. < sob >
xbhaskarx - March 2, 2009
It was $100 K to buy the 1st pick, $50 K to pick... someone other than Soria!
grover - March 2, 2009
I would have settled for Hamilton
though Soria would have been nice as well.
vignette17 - March 3, 2009
Yes!
fansince1980 - March 2, 2009
When I saw the ticker on ESPN announce the Cabrera signing
I accidentally hit my friend in the eye via a involuntary arm movement. He didn’t get mad considering he was over my shoulder, exclaiming the exact same thing I did. “Huh, 4 million dollars for a pretty good Shortstop? Whaaat?”
Morgasm - March 2, 2009
I don't like "O-Cab"; it sounds ridiculous.
We can do better. For the time being “Cabrera” is better.
mikeA - March 2, 2009
If I could post images...
This is where the “O RLY?” owl would be.
And this is where an image of Lando Calrissian would be.
Rocktopus - March 2, 2009
It's decided then, we'll call him Lando Calrissian
mikeA - March 2, 2009
PaulThomas - March 2, 2009
Great.
Now photoshop a surprised looking Orlando Cabrera and voila! Nickname and associated image complete!
Rocktopus - March 2, 2009
PaulThomas - March 2, 2009
man that was a stupid hat
Buck Turgidson - March 2, 2009
Thou shalt NOT hate on the powder blue jerseys.
mikev - March 2, 2009
when I was a kid
I couldn’t even tell what was on it. I thought it was a JB
oakinboston - March 3, 2009
elb!
franks a lot - March 3, 2009
We could just call him Tony
As in Tony Orlando.
Tyler Bleszinski - March 2, 2009
How about "Fidel"?
Or Magical Realism?
notsellingjeans - March 2, 2009
Your suggestions have the virtue of my having heard of those people unlike Lando Calrissian or Tony Orlando, who I had to google
mikeA - March 2, 2009
How have you not heard of Lando?
nevermoor - March 2, 2009
They must not have heard about his little maneuver at the Battle of Tanaab.
LoneStranger - March 3, 2009
Let's settle on "Comrade" and call it done
FreeSeatUpgrade - March 2, 2009
I like that
mikeA - March 2, 2009
although it's bad for the A's colors
mikeA - March 2, 2009
Green is the new Red
andeux - March 3, 2009
Just glad to see this go our way.
This is the year that we have Holliday and we need to go all out. I do agree with PT that there isn’t a chance in HELL that we keep Holliday past this year…so I hope that Beane goes all out to get the best of what’s left. (That we can reasonably afford, of course).
IM4Oakgal - March 2, 2009
Starting to believe!
Finally benching or getting rid of Crosby, shows me this team might actually be going for it this year.
No more or at least very little of Crosby! I do the dance of joy!
fansince1980 - March 2, 2009
I'll read through everything, but my first thoughts
Fangraphs agrees with me about Cabrera basically being only a win better than Crosby. And I think that’s if Cabrera doesn’t regress at all and Crosby is just as bad as his 2008 (meaning his oddly poor defense in 2008 wasn’t a fluke). I expect Cabrera is only about a half-win upgrade over Crosby when all is said and done.
Kind of a whatever move to me. The money was either going to Cabrera or it wasn’t being spent. May as well spend it.
thejd44 - March 2, 2009
The one win assumes Cabrera regressing and Crosby improving (on offense)
mikeA - March 2, 2009
I don't think they're accounting for Cabrera's regression + move from one of the best hitters parks to the exact opposite.
I expect a .650 OPS from him this year.
thejd44 - March 2, 2009
the fangraphs analysis based on chone was
He’ll be hurt by the Coliseum, but he probably wasn’t really helped at all by playing in Chicago. We’ll see if he opses .650 this year….
mikeA - March 2, 2009
Cameron doesn't even cite all the right numbers for the stats posted on Fangraphs
I’m not sure I should trust his conclusions.
thejd44 - March 2, 2009
I can get behind not trusting Cameron....
anyway the 6 runs was based on park adjusted chone numbers. chone has cabrera at .274/.332/.373 in a neutral park, and .266/.323/.360 in Oakland (way off his last few years), which is 6 runs better than the chone projection for Crosby either way.
mikeA - March 2, 2009
i wouldn't trust cameron even if he used the right numbers
xbhaskarx - March 2, 2009
That's half right.
Cabrera’s too old to be getting any better.
jeepers - March 2, 2009
Yeah, I don't necessarily think Crosby will hit better
But I don’t see why his fielding won’t return to normal. He hasn’t suffered a major leg injury that should permanently sap him of his ability.
thejd44 - March 2, 2009
Why Cabrera? They could have given some of it to me.
mikev - March 2, 2009
Fangraphs mistakes
Fangraphs said Crosby was a replacement level player. Crosby has been quite a bit worse than that (he ranked 42nd, 47th, and 39th in VORP the last 3 years). His average VORP over these years is -3.8 (a better VORP of 0 indicates a replacement player.
Unlike Fangraphs, I think the A’s are acquiring Cabrera (at least partly) for his bat. It is clear that Cabrera, the 10th best hitting SS the last years, is a better hitter than is Crosby:
Cabrera .288 BA .338 OBP .390 SLG .728 OPS
Crosby.. .232 BA .292 OBP .344 SLG .637 OPS
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?playerId=3739&type=batting3
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?playerId=5770&type=batting3
Cabrera’s defense is quite a bit better than Crosby’s over the last 3 years. Cabrera’s defense in 2008 is much closer to his Gold Glove year in 2007 than to any of Crosby’s years according the stats at Baseball Prospectus.
Cabrera RAR RAA Rate2 RAR2 RAA2 (bigger numbers better)
2006…. 99 . 21 . -1 . 100 . 27
2007… 111 . 37 . 17 . 113 . 48 Gold Glove year
2008… 104 . 27 . 6 . 105 . 37
Crosby RAR RAA Rate2 RAR2 RAA2
2006 . 95 . 9 . -5 . 95 . 12
2007 . 99 . 12 . -1 . 100 . 17
2008 . 92 . 7 -12 . 92 . 15
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/cabreor01.php
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/crosbbo01.php
The ChiSox park factor was 1039, the A’s was 957. That’s an 8.2% difference, but you only play 1/2 your games at home so it’s closer to 4% (not 4.1% since a handful of Cabrera’s road games are now at ChiSox). So, I project Cabrera to have a .699 OPS (.728 3-year OPS less 4%).
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/eqa2008.php#tmtot
BillyWannabeane - March 2, 2009
Statistics
OPS double counts average, so you really should look at something like wOBA/BRAA. In any case, we’re pretty good at evaluating offense and Cabrera is worth roughly 10 runs more given a full season of ABs if we assume they repeat their 2008 numbers. Most reasonable projections show them a little closer than that for next year.
Also, BP’s defensive stats are garbage. You should ignore them. UZR, PMR, and RZR are all roughly equivalent, and they don’t show a huge difference between the two defensively, and considering that Cabrera is on the wrong side of the aging curve, it’s probably about a wash.
We can expect this deal to improve the A’s by about half a win to a full win, which is actually a decent sized upgrade. It also pushes Crosby into the backup infielder role, which could be worth a bit more than simply swapping Crosby for Cabrera.
MrIncognito - March 2, 2009
Just curious...
… not attacking, but why do you say BP’s defensive stats are “garbage?”
As far as I’m concerned, most defensive metrics (UZR, Dewan’s, etc.) are pretty subjective and generally should be taken with a large grain of salt. But, you (and a number of other people) have suggested BP’s defensive stats are worse than others… why?
Uncle Charlie - March 2, 2009
They're not based on play by play data
FRAA is basically a gussied up version of Range Factor, which is nice for long ago eras when better data don’t exist, but well out of date at this point.
It’s basically being mothballed by BP as we speak.
PaulThomas - March 2, 2009
Follow-up...
… so, which defensive metrics are based on play-by-play data (is UZR?)?
And… what’s the difference between “range factor” and defensive metrics based on play-by-play? My understanding was that a player’s range factor was based on a subjective assessment on each play about whether the typical _ would have gotten to the ball… in other words, if the evaluator believed the average SS would have gotten to a ball, and Player X did not, that would factor against Player X’s range factor…
But, based on your comment, it sounds like range factor wasn’t even based on actual play-by-play data, but instead was based on a total accumulation of stats… in other words, a player’s range factor would be determined by saying, the typical SS would get to Y balls during a season, Player X got to Z balls, Player X’s range factor is better (if Z is greater than Y) or worse (if Y is greater than Z) than average. Is that what FRAA and Range Factor are based on…
Also, when you say “based on play-by-play data,” does that mean someone is actually watching the game and making a subjective judgment based on trajectory of ball, positioning of fielders, etc., about whether a player should have gotten to a ball…?
I don’t get how these defensive metrics come up with an exact number of runs a player saved or did not save without getting into the exact details of every single ball-in-play, which would include things like managerial decisions about positioning, and other things out of the player’s control…
Uncle Charlie - March 3, 2009
Range Factor is just the number of successful plays a player makes per game
Putouts and assists per 9 innings of defensive work.
FRAA, if I understand it correctly, is Range Factor, adjusted for which pitchers a player plays in front of, their tendencies with regard to grounders and fly balls, and maybe a couple of other factors.
By contrast, UZR and its ilk rely on actually plotting the landing spot/trajectory of batted balls. The field is divided into “zones”, and fielders are rated on how well they do against the batted balls that they faced in their zone. Sometimes fielders will go out of their zone to field balls, in which case they will get credit for making an unusually difficult play. (Defensive shifts will tend to cause people to get undeserved credit for unusually difficult plays but also undeserved blame for unusually easy plays that they didn’t make.)
I don’t know if any of the systems at this point use velocity of the ball as an added variable (giving fielders more credit for fielding harder-hit balls). It would certainly be relevant info and I’m sure once Hit F/X comes out all the best metrics will evaluate it.
PaulThomas - March 3, 2009
OPS is a pretty good stat
In fact, one of the reasons OPS works as well as it does (for a simple stat) is that it gives approximately good values to each of the offensive categories:
1 for BB or HBP slightly undervalued
2 for 1B ……… ……… |
3 for 2B ……… ……… |
4 for 3B ……… ……… v
5 for HR ……… slightly overvalued
OPS = OBP (BB,1B,2B,3B,HR each equals 1) + SLG (BB=0 1B=1 2B=2 3B=3 HR=4)
The percentage difference between each of the above OBP components is pretty close to the Run Values for each stat. Run Values tries to predict how many runs each stat will produce:
0.30 for BB or HBP
0.46 for 1B
0.75 for 2B
1.03 for 3B
1.40 for HR
http://www.tangotiger.net/runscreated.html
BillyWannabeane - March 2, 2009
But there are better, readily available offensive measures based on linear weights
SkipT - March 2, 2009
The goodness of OPS
First, I wanted to explain why the comment “OPS double counts average” is seemingly wrong and certainly misleading. Second, the other offensive measures you mentioned aren’t available to the average follower of baseball. If you’re watching a game in person or on TV, you can either calculate OPS or it may even be provided. Many scoreboards didn’t list OBP until recent years!?! Third, since OPS numbers are more prevalent, when someone says “Cabrera will have an OPS of .650”, I immediately know just how bad that is, and I have a knee-jerk reaction to actually calculate my prediction: “Cabrera will have an OPS of .699”.
Finally, when I look at Ruth, Williams and Gehrig at the top of the all-time OPS leaders, it emphasizs to me that OPS does a very good job of determining who the best hitters are.
Rank Player (age) OPS
1. Babe Ruth+* 1.1638
2. Ted Williams+* 1.1155
3. Lou Gehrig+* 1.0798
4. Barry Bonds* (43) 1.0512
5. Albert Pujols (28) 1.0489
6. Jimmie Foxx+ 1.0376
7. Hank Greenberg+ 1.0169
8. Rogers Hornsby+ 1.0103
9. Manny Ramirez (36) 1.0044
10. Todd Helton* (34) 1.0020
11. Mark McGwire .9823
12. Mickey Mantle+# .9773
13. Joe DiMaggio+ .9771
14. Stan Musial+* .9757
15. Frank Thomas (40) .9740
16. Lance Berkman# (32) .9730
17. Alex Rodriguez (32) .9671
18. Jim Thome* (37) .9663
19. Larry Walker* .9654
20. Vladimir Guerrero (32) .9634
21. Johnny Mize+* .9591
22. Chipper Jones# (36) .9554
23. Jeff Bagwell .9480
24. Mel Ott+* .9471
25. Ralph Kiner+ .9459
26. Lefty O’Doul* .9451
27. Ty Cobb+* .9450
28. Dan Brouthers+* .9425
29. Jason Giambi* (37) .9421
http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/OPS_career.shtml
Simply dismissing OPS with the misleading statement that it “double counts average” does a huge disservice to the people who aren’t as stat-aware as others.
BillyWannabeane - March 3, 2009
OPS leaves out a whole shitload of other stuff though.
Do you think Todd Helton is the 10th best hitter ever? OPS say so, right?
mikev - March 3, 2009
If Helton got his stats in an average park, maybe
Helton got his stats in probably the most freakish hitters park ever (certainly before the humidor when he amassed most of his stats). It’s easy to nit pick one point. Do you not think that Ruth, Williams and Gehrig are the best hitters ever?
OPS is only about hitting, not about baserunning, defense, etc. I know it has limitations. There are better stats. If you have better stats, bring them to the table. If you don’t like certain stats explain why you don’t like certain stats.
BillyWannabeane - March 3, 2009
wOBA
http://www.insidethebook.com/woba.shtml
oakinboston - March 3, 2009
Unfortunately, we’ve already had this same conversation about 129381948239484923534985 times on this blog. It is incumbent upon you to research your posts. If you really are curious about the relative merits of various offensive stats, about 20 minutes on Google should clear up a lot of questions. For the most part, people are perfectly willing to point you towards information, but it’s a bit much to expect a rehash of the same conversation every couple months.
OPS isn’t a terrible stat, and it’s well correlated with scoring. That being said, there is a whole world of more robust stats available at any number of web sites (ex: wOBA as pointed out in the post above this one).
MrIncognito - March 3, 2009
I wasn't here for these discussions
My point is: show me the wOBA stats for Cabrera and Crosby. I can google with the best of them to figure out what wOBA is. It will take me some time to become comfortable with wOBA numbers, and I’ll need proof like I provided with OPS that wOBA is a valid measure. But I may come around to it.
One of the reasons I haven’t spent much time on AN, is that I rarely saw the actually numbers discussions. I see vague comments like “Cabrera will have an OPS of .650”, but that is a number pulled out of someone’s a**. Thus, I found AN to be a waste of my time.
I am trying to raise the statistical analysis level of these discussions. And I feel like I’m being badgered into being quiet. And the people badgering really aren’t bringing much to the table.
I apologize if this hurts people’s feelings. I just needed to say where I was coming from.
BillyWannabeane - March 4, 2009
two deluded people
another team has to actually want you to play shortstop for them.
are those the same clubs that are bidding on manny?
xbhaskarx - March 2, 2009
obviously
Crosby can be traded to the 2 or 3 other teams bidding for Cabrera.
mikeA - March 2, 2009
Or to the mystery team!
Run, undoubtedly, by Jim Bowden.
Nico - March 2, 2009
apparently he's not willing to change positions, is crosby willing to change his name?
xbhaskarx - March 2, 2009
No - his name worked well for him in high school
Nico - March 2, 2009
Ah, back to the good old dumb-as-a-post Bobby Crosby we've all come to know and [not] love
PaulThomas - March 2, 2009
Are you serious?
Honestly, what the fuck is he supposed to say?
“Well, yeah, I kept hearing all the rumors about another shortstop, and I know they waived me, but we started Spring Training so I figured it was okay. Hey, I guess I’ll just sit the bench and shut up.”
Keep in mind that, even though everybody says he sucks, he’s been the starting shortstop EVERYWHERE he’s played in his life, ever.
mikev - March 2, 2009
And Crosby has been our worst starting position player the last 3 years
I don’t feel sorry for someone like Crosby who has put up numbers like this in 1377 plate appearances: .232 BA .292 OBP .344 SLG .637 OPS
The A’s are trying to win this year, and SS was our weakest position over the last couple of years. So Billy was smart to replace the 43rd best offensive SS in the league with the 10th best offensive SS in the league. The 43rd best SS in the league does not deserve to be a starter.
BillyWannabeane - March 2, 2009
What's he supposed to say?
“Nothing” would be a good start.
PaulThomas - March 2, 2009
I’m just happy to be here and I hope I can help the ball club.
I just want to give it my best shot and, the good lord willing, everything will work out.
MrIncognito - March 3, 2009
Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose.
Sometimes…it rains. Think about that.
67MARQUEZ - March 3, 2009
Draft pick is probably non-issue
Like notsellingjeans said, we may well get 2 draft picks in the future for Cabrera, worst case no draft picks if we don’t offer him arbitration. That averages out to 1 draft pick, which is what we’re giving up.
BillyWannabeane - March 2, 2009
I like the signing a lot!
Cabrera brings more excitement and depth to the A’s both offensively and defensively. I’m for bringing in Nomar too. Now if Beane can find a way to add a solid proven starting pitcher Oakland will make a strong run at the division title and maybe more.
jdub69 - March 2, 2009
great move
In Billy I trust…
joshers - March 2, 2009
I wanted to see Crosby again...
Maybe Beane knows Crosby is going to break out and is just benching him so he can re-sign him cheaply for 2010 when the team is really good.
Why didnt I see it before!!!
ChadGod - March 2, 2009
This is turning into a soap opera.......best of luck on that trade Bobby.
{shakes head…….calls up other mystery teams that may be interested in Manny Ramirez…..asks if they might want Bobby CRosby instead.}
mrod - March 3, 2009
he will provide better value for the $$ than furcal
guaranteed
exebache - March 3, 2009
My Favorite Part Of This Deal...
Is that It is only a one year situation. In this dannn age, the cruel reality is that players perform at their finest when they are on the last year of their contract.
hyphybeast - March 3, 2009
like... Crosby is?
mikev - March 3, 2009
Linked from Rob Neyer
congrats Taj. Nice work.
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?entryID=3948043&name=Neyer_Rob
closetasfan - March 3, 2009
nice work!
JJ - March 3, 2009
wht Cabrera had to say about signing with the A's
according to this article in USA Today:
OaklandSi - March 3, 2009
I'm glad he's not coming out with the usual agent speak.
OldhamA - March 3, 2009
Props for a non canned interview.
4M is a lot of money. But is has to suck losing 6M because you were greedy. You have to love irony and down market conspiring against Bobby.
alox - March 3, 2009
damn Taj
nice
greenpaddedgloves - March 3, 2009
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