It's posts like this that allow us to look stupid: Putting in writing predictions that will probably be half right, half wrong, allowing everyone to remember all the times you were wrong!
The question is: Which Athletics will exceed expectations for 2009 and which Athletics will fall short. My guesses, from a very cloudy crystal ball...
Bullish: Travis Buck. The guy is extremely talented with a track record of success, has shown he can perform at the major league level, and learned a lot from the adversity he faced in 2008. I see Buck pleasantly surprising those who were traumatized by his 2008 "season o' futility" and performing like a solid leadoff hitter. Yay, Travis!!!
Bearish: Daric Barton. I'm doing Daric a favor by predicting his failure, as last off-season I boldly predicted Barton would hit .300 in 2008 and he kind of didn't. So this year, I am ensuring his success by concluding that a lot of signs point to him struggling in 2009. First of all, he will get off to a late start due to his off-season hip surgery, and so he will begin "odd man out" in a "four players for three spots" scenario.
And as long as his leash was last year, Barton's leash will be short this year due to the combination of Giambi and a more competitive division race, so if Daric struggles out of the gate - likely enough given his late spring training and the pressure to perform immediately - he could easily find himself stashed in AAA until further notice.
Finally, I saw some of 2008 Barton's problems being a lack of maturity (and/or depth perception) and so I now see Daric as someone who will still be a solid major league player, but maybe not at as young an age as some of his teammates. I see Barton getting off to a late and slow start, and ultimately not "breaking out" as a big leaguer until 2010.
Bullish: Brett Anderson. I think Anderson is polished in a way that is more important than chronological age. He throws strikes, he knows how to pitch, and I think he is the best candidate of all the young pitchers to emerge at a young age. I see him opening lots of eyes in spring training, barely missing the rotation from the git go, being the first call-up from AAA and never looking back.
Bearish: Ryan Sweeney. Not because he's bad but because expectations are high and I'm not convinced Sweeney will meet them, at least in 2010. I really think he's a very average defender in CF and I don't see him having the foot-speed to get substantially better. As an average defender, he needs to do more than slap a lot of singles and that's what I expect from Sweeney: A solid batting average and lots of talk about how he'll hit for power someday that isn't today. And that will constitute a disappointment, if not a surprise.
Bullish: Eric Chavez. I just think the guy is going to be pretty healthy and as a result pretty darn productive. If Chavez turns in 120-130 games hitting .260/.360/.460 with 20 HRs and good old Chavy defense, I think most fans will be thrilled. I think he can do it.
Honorable mentions...Bulls Trevor Cahill and James Simmons may be closer to being ready to pitch in the big leagues than bears Gio Gonzalez and Vince Mazzaro...Bull Jack Cust may show that eye exercises and protection are real, while bear Mark Ellis may show that coming back from surgery is no quick or simple matter...
Disclaimer: Everything I just said may be utter baloney. Your turn!
0 recs | 118 comments
Bullish: Sean Gallagher
Bearish: Jason Giambi
Bullish: Bobby Crosby (in relative terms, of course)
Bearish: Joey Devine’s health
Goatish: Nico
HigherPie - February 21, 2009
-1
T-Money - February 21, 2009
+/- Bite me!
HigherPie - February 21, 2009
Bobby Crosby +1
Hoping he has a great year. We seem to be in the minority on this one.
somebodyelse - February 21, 2009
it's like the wife who keeps coming back after being cheated on time after time
dtownmbrown - February 22, 2009
Except in that scenario, a guy scores occasionally
Nico - February 22, 2009
I just want to be able to wear my Crosby tee
in public again. I Hate to waste a nice tee shirt.
somebodyelse - February 22, 2009
He said he was sorry.
somebodyelse - February 22, 2009
So then
these could just as easily be moose and squirrel predictions?
lynnzgal - February 21, 2009
Eveland: moosish
Duke: squirrelish (compared to last year)
Chavez: moosish
Ellis: squirrelish
dtownmbrown - February 22, 2009
What? Bare Mark Ellis?
Poppy - February 21, 2009
I'm bearish on the whole team. They could lose 95 games.
Expect little to no contribution from:
Duchscherer
Giambi
Devine
Ellis
Chavez
Crosby/Other SS
Braden
Gallagher
Expect mediocrity from:
Buck
Sweeney
Anderson
Cahill
G. Gonzalez
Outman
Mazzaro
Eveland
Ziegler
Blevins
Barton
Expect good years from:
Suzuki
Cust
Holliday (who’ll hopefully be traded for a SS prospect)
Three above average players don’t make for a very good team.
WaddellCanseco - February 21, 2009
Wow, anti-jinx?
OkayJay81 - February 21, 2009
Eeyore's back!
I’m donkeyish on you!
Nico - February 21, 2009
you think the a's will have only 3 above average players?
can we define what above average means and then place a substantial wager on this?
xbhaskarx - February 21, 2009
No betting on AN!
(Unless “the house” gets 10% off the top.)
Nico - February 21, 2009
How about greater than 2 WAR on Fangraphs?
WaddellCanseco - February 22, 2009
where is WAR on that site?
i don’t see it
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1564&position=DH/OF
xbhaskarx - February 22, 2009
down at the bottom--- "value wins"
mikeA - February 22, 2009
in that case i will take the bet
what do you say, WC, $100?
xbhaskarx - February 22, 2009
Seriously, no monetary bet made on AN is enforceable
Monastery bets are ok if you have one to wager.
Nico - February 22, 2009
I'll bet you on that
mikeA - February 22, 2009
I'd like a piece, too
PaulThomas - February 22, 2009
"All we are saying...is give Chance a piece..."
mrod - February 22, 2009
I wish there was a negative rec option
I can’t wait for you to be wrong
JediLeroy - February 21, 2009
Yeah, there's pessimistic and there's just plain ridiculous
Anything in the “95 win – 95 loss” range is pretty out there.
Nico - February 21, 2009
I said "could" not "would"
I’m “predicting” about 80 wins. But I see a lot more downside than upside. 95 losses is a lot more likely than 95 wins.
WaddellCanseco - February 22, 2009
I'd actually say they're equally likely
Nico - February 22, 2009
I agree with you on Buck and Brett Anderson
He (Anderson) appears to be quite polished for his age and throwing strikes is half the battle.
Let’s hope Travis stays healthy.
I expect Gallagher to improve outta sight as he gets more experience.
The offense is so much better on paper that it has to help the young pitching and I think that we see that very young pitching very early on in the season. There is much mediocrity as the rotation stands at the moment that I think one or two of the future will be here sooner than later.
Go A’s
Trainman - February 21, 2009
I skipped Gallagher because I think his development will be slow but sure
I could still him having too many walks and high pitch counts in 2009 in a “solid year,” en route to being really good in 2010.
Nico - February 21, 2009
Nico you landed somewhere between Jim Rome and Mad Money on this one.
Buck Turgidson - February 21, 2009
I don't understand that, but "thanks"/"hey that's not nice"
Nico - February 21, 2009
Sorry you didn't get it
My fault for making obtuse references. Bad habit of mine.
Buck Turgidson - February 21, 2009
At the risk of sounding stupid,
which I repeatedly do,
what is an “obtuse reference”?
somebodyelse - February 21, 2009
Not the same thing as an abstruse reference.
Poppy - February 21, 2009
Now you're just being sexy.
somebodyelse - February 21, 2009
Thanks!
An obtuse reference is an obscure one. Even the 21 century, obtuse angles are still widely ostracized in the triangle community.
Nico - February 22, 2009
Look, call me a shapeist if you must
But I would certainly never accept an obtuse triangle in my family.
thejd44 - February 22, 2009
Milton Bradley was right!
You are shapeist!
somebodyelse - February 22, 2009
"Rack em', yo!"
mrod - February 22, 2009
What? What did you call me?
scatterbrian - February 22, 2009
Bullish: Gio Gonzalez
I think he is going to win the 5th starter competition and perform like a pretty good 3 or 4 starter this year.
The stuff is definitely there, he’s been one of the best strikeout pitchers in the minors for the last 3 years and even when he was getting rocked in the Majors late in the season he was striking guys out.
The big problem for Gio is the walks but I don’t think he will be nearly as wild as he was as a starter for the A’s. Over 6 BB/9 is way above his previous walk rates, I expect it to drop back to the low 4’s this season.
Gio will probably always walk more people than you would like but I think his stuff is good enough to pitch around it most times and that he will be a very useful pitcher this season.
OkayJay81 - February 21, 2009
Of course when discussing Gio these days,
there’s kind of a big “but…”
Nico - February 21, 2009
I think he is trying to channel David Wells
in an effort to improve his command
OkayJay81 - February 21, 2009
Wells is, what, channels 58 and 59?
Nico - February 21, 2009
Not on Comcast
somebodyelse - February 21, 2009
58 = waist size 59= IQ
somebodyelse - February 21, 2009
Chavvy: Bearish
He’s probably more healthy than he’s been in a while, but I won’t believe it until I see it on-field. That might be a little while.
DyeLongJustice - February 21, 2009
Bearish: Jason Giambi
It’s cool to have the Giambino back in town holding court in the clubhouse but I think people who are expecting him to be an impact hitter might be disappointed.
He’s 38 now moving from Yankee stadium with the short porch in Right field and a powerful line-up to one of toughest parks for hitters in the AL where he will likely be protected by the like of Eric Chavez and Kurt Suzuki. On top of that his BB rate seemed to slip the last couple years from awesome to pretty darned good.
Giambi is well into the decline phase of his career so if I have to pick someone to be pessimistic on I’ll go with him.
P.S. I hope I’m wrong and Giambi parties like it’s 1999-2001
OkayJay81 - February 21, 2009
I think the "RF porch" factor might HELP Giambi
Away from Yankee Stadium, he’s likely to go back to the approach that made him most successful, which is to bang the ball hard to all fields. He’s always hit great at the Coliseum, so I’m not sure why everyone is so quick to knock down his projected stats due to park effects.
Age may take its toll, but a 38-year old Frank Thomas did just fine too. I expect something around a .245/.360/.480 line for Giambi, with maybe 25 HRs. I’ll take it.
Nico - February 21, 2009
It's not just the park effects
I think there could be some rough times if Giambi tries to remake his swing at 38 after 7 years in NY. Although if .245/.360/.480 with 25 HR’s is the general expectation maybe he won’t underperform by that much. I was just getting the impression that people were expecting Giambi to step into the middle of the lineup and OBP .400 with 35 or so HR’s.
OkayJay81 - February 21, 2009
He's definitely not going to do that -
and If he only hits .230/.340/.420 with 18 HRs you could definitely say he was “bearish,” but if he puts up the numbers I’m predicting I think the A’s will be happy and rightly so.
Nico - February 21, 2009
Giambi talked about going to left center at the Coliseum
and doing exactly what you say Nico. Said he thinks he can get his average up and was pulling the ball at Yankee Stadium and now back here wants to make the adjustments.
Let’s see what happens.
Trainman - February 21, 2009
Shift
I wonder if teams will still use the shift on him if he isn’t pulling the ball as much.
skalordes - February 21, 2009
He'll probably still pull all his ground balls
(see Harold Baines) so I imagine the shift will still occur in some form.
Nico - February 22, 2009
I think your prediction is on the high end of what I think is realistic
But a lot of people here are predicting 30-35 HRs from the guy. There’s bullish, and there’s just plain dreaming. Too many people are dreaming.
thejd44 - February 22, 2009
It's almost definitionally not "dreaming" to predict a player to hit the same number of HR as he did last season
Maybe it’s not his 50th percentile projection, but “dreaming”? Ludicrous.
PaulThomas - February 22, 2009
I got 5$ on it. Giambino goes yard 30+ times this year.
mrod - February 22, 2009
I'm not as optimistic about Chavez, but...
…if he can put together the performance you describe I’ll be very happy indeed.
UncleLeo - February 21, 2009
Bullish on Trevor Cahill.
I don’t think it’s long before he gets here, and I think his ceiling is Greg Maddux. There, I said it.
jeepers - February 21, 2009
I'm slightly bearish on Cahill
I still really like him as a prospect but I think he needs a bit more time working on controlling his sinker. I’m a little concerned about the jump in walk rate he showed when he moved up to AA last season. I wouldn’t mind seeing him start the season on AA and have him work on his control and change-up.
I think people expecting him to make an impact with the A’s this season might be a bit disappointed.
OkayJay81 - February 21, 2009
I would like to see him jump to AAA but not to the majors,
for the reasons you describe. I think he needs to be “pushed but not rushed” and I think AAA is the right place for him for at least the first half of 2009.
Nico - February 21, 2009
I think his ceiling is Brandon Webb and I'll more than take it.
There, I wrote it.
Nico - February 21, 2009
This....
mrod - February 22, 2009
i’ve heard the brandon webb comparisons, how is cahill anything like greg maddux?
cahill gets more strikeouts but gives up more walks. i guess they’re both right handed…
xbhaskarx - February 22, 2009
6 letter last names, a "double letter" in there...C'mon, they're practically twins.
Nico - February 22, 2009
Came from an interview I read.
He seems like a pretty bright kid. I was thinking of a smart pitcher without a blazing fastball, yet incredible potential. Not a perfect comparison by any means…
jeepers - February 22, 2009
GO AWAY AND DON'T COME BACK UNTIL YOU HAVE A PERFECT COMPARISON!!!
Is what a jerk might say.
Nico - February 22, 2009
I'm bullish on team health
Seems like the rehiring of Bob Alejo completes the desparately-needed reinvention of the training staff. It’s possible that I just have a lousy memory, but it seemed like players were much better at staying on the field during his earlier A’s tenure than has been the case the last few years.
Plus…the A’s are simply due to revert to the mean on the injury front. Yeah, I know, just because tails has come up 5 times in a row, it doesn’t mean heads is any more likely on the next flip.
Soaker - February 21, 2009
Sure it is!!!!111
Nico - February 21, 2009
I'm bearish on team health
though I too am happy with the changes in the training staff, and recollect the Alejo years as fairly healthy ones. But between Ellis, Chavez and Duke there’s an awful lot of rehab pitfalls out there. And the early spring noises about the pace of Ellis’ recovery are disquieting.
FreeSeatUpgrade - February 21, 2009
Why aren't the A's after Grudzielanek instead of Nomar?
Nico - February 21, 2009
It's the restraining order Grudz has against me.
Poppy - February 21, 2009
Wow, the guy really holds a Grudz, doesn't he
JediLeroy - February 21, 2009
Better to get a player who could potentially take over as starting SS
if Crosby really goes into the tank.
PaulThomas - February 21, 2009
Unless you think there's a good chance Ellis will not play 100 games -
Hopefully he will. I was surprised that given Utley’s situation, the Phillies haven’t gone after Grudzy, or someone better than Bruntlett, even though it’s just for 1/2 a season.
Nico - February 21, 2009
they have Jason Donald too.
I don’t think that hes ready… but then again i didn’t give Raul Ibanez 30m for three years.
designatedforassignment - February 21, 2009
Donald would be a decent A's target,
since the Phillies are pretty set with Rollins and Utley – but realistically he’s more 2010 material.
Nico - February 21, 2009
But the Phillies probably need him to fill in while Utley's out. Even after that
they need a 3B
WaddellCanseco - February 22, 2009
Not sure he's ready to fill in for Utley.
Nico - February 22, 2009
no
I really don’t think Donald is the answer. Hes too old and their are questions about his ability to play ss long term because of his lack of range. His total zone per 150 last year was -37 runs below avg. I know minor league defensive stats are to be taken with a grain of salt and he wasn’t terrible in 07 but hes going to be 25 this year and its his first year in AAA.. Additionally his numbers aren’t as shinny when you adjust for luck on BABIP.
designatedforassignment - February 22, 2009
Crosby's already in the tank, thrashing his arms about and only sinking deeper
mikeA - February 21, 2009
It's true that Ellis, at his worst, for 100 games...
…is probably better than Crosby for 162.
Nico - February 21, 2009
I think Nomar would be cool as a backup plan
he can play 1st. 2nd, and 3rd and gives the A’s another RH stick off the bench. As long as you don’t expect him to be a full time player anymore, I totally welcome “The Lowd Nomah!”
mrod - February 22, 2009
because spelling Duchscherer is enough of a challenge...
skutch - February 22, 2009
Because of PED's
When he was the head trainer before, not just steriods but ampthetamines were widely used.
skalordes - February 21, 2009
bullish on the younger guys in general
bearish on the older and injury-plagued players.
OaklandSi - February 21, 2009
and in between on the medium-aged guys?
mikeA - February 21, 2009
Goatish?
Nico - February 21, 2009
I'm bullish on Stomper
Last year’s Stomper was the weakest one I can remember. Unremarkable dancing, terrible field presence, zero camaraderie with A’s players and coaches, lousy with kids in the stands. And he committed the unforgivable sin of mascots everywhere during the September game in which his costume head came off and rolled across the field.
Stomper ‘09 can’t possibly be worse.
FreeSeatUpgrade - February 21, 2009
His penis could come off
That would be worse.
Nico - February 21, 2009
Nah, just soak it in some betadine.
Poppy - February 21, 2009
And serve with rice?
Nico - February 21, 2009
..on some shrimp
…then Pennington takes over.
JediLeroy - February 21, 2009
He found it lying on a blanket next to a broken toaster oven.
LoneStranger - February 23, 2009
Stomper Wayne Bobbit
somebodyelse - February 21, 2009
Bullish on Gallagher and Anderson
And bearish on Cahill but only slightly (as in, I really don’t see how so many of you think Cahill is going to be a better player than Anderson…)
baetown415 - February 21, 2009
It's all bullsh, if you ask me
JediLeroy - February 21, 2009
As a fan
I agree with you on this one!
danquadtwo - February 21, 2009
My bearish bullish prediction
Not alot to argue with Nico’s predictions they all could come true but where does Crosby stand? Even Nico is smart enough not to touch that one.
Bearish>>> Buck will have the break out year. Mazzaro will win a spot and be a shinning light in the rotation. Devine will end up as the closer and Ziggy as the set up man. Suzuki will be considered one of the top catcher in the AL. While Pennington wins the utility job and becomes the new scutaro. Dallas Braden will be our #3 starter.
Bullish…Cust will be gone half way through the season. Gallagher will not be better than a 4th or 5th starter. Gio will be in AAA. Eveland will be out of the rotation when Anderson joins mid year. Casilla will be hurt most of the year.
Arcman - February 21, 2009
you sir, would not do well on wall street
bearish = bad
bullish = good
UOSportsDude - February 21, 2009
Damn me
That is why I screwed up this year and made money on the stock market. Thanks I just noticed the mistake. Rule #1 for me don’t post after 9pm half asleep.
Arcman - February 22, 2009
Mazzaro =
a shinning light with strickouts!
somebodyelse - February 21, 2009
Actually, Mazzaro's strickout rate was pretty low last season...
PaulThomas - February 22, 2009
In no particular order:
Bullish: Crosby (if he’s on the team)
Bullish: Sweeney
Bullish: Giambi
Bullish: Holliday
Bullish: Barton (in AAA, then in MLB when Giambi needs some rest)
Bullish: Cahill & Anderson
Bullish: Devine
Bullish: Ziggy
Bullish: Eveland
Bullish: Cust
Bullish: Buck
Bearish: Ellis
Bearish: Duke
Bearish: Chavez
Meh: Mazzaro
Meh: Gonzalez
Meh: Simmons
FoolshGame22 - February 22, 2009
I knew I'd forget players...
but, after reading Arcman’s post…
Bullish: Gallagher
Bullish: Suzuki (very bullish)
Bullish: Braden (especially if he throws the scrooge)
Bearish: Pennington
Meh: Cunningham (I’m on the fence with this one… I tend toward bullish, but until Holliday is traded, he won’t play in the major leagues)
FoolshGame22 - February 22, 2009
Cunningham
Hard to say what he will do unless a injury to Sweeny/Buck or Holiday is traded.
Arcman - February 22, 2009
I'm very bullish on Cunningham, but I agree with where he's playing
But killing AAA pitching isn’t a bad thing. And I think he’ll do that.
thejd44 - February 22, 2009
Agree - he'll be on the same bus as one of the young pitchers:
Headed to Oakland around May on a one-way ride.
Nico - February 22, 2009
I'm glad to see that some have selected 'bullish' for Crosby
If he manages to stick around [and why wouldn’t he since it would be costly to get rid of and then replace him], I think that he exceedes current expectations of him. With expectations of him so low, final year of contract with no interst in him on the horizon, Crosby has to press to get his shit together. If Crosby can even slightly improve with a little self-induced stress, he will have met and surpassed the expectation that those in fandom have on him.
But what if he came out of the gate and was raking and his game came together in a big way? How many weeks would it take for him to get some love on AN? And what if the performance continued; could the love turn to gushing? Weirder things have happened in fandom. Personally, if this unlikely turn of events were to happen, I’d wouldn’t mind seeing him traded of if he could be replaced from within and by doing so it would hurt the team’s chances to compete.
LowcountryJoe - February 22, 2009
Screw Fremont.
Bulls- Giambi, Cust, Holliday, Suzuki, Duke, Gio, Casilla, Ziggy, Buck, Gallagher
Bears-Bobby frickin Crosby, Sweeney, Chavez, Ellis, Eveland, Barton
I wish it differently for Bobby but I haven’t seen he’s ever going to be the gamer we all thought he might be back in the day. Ellis and Chavez going to continue to get hurt.
Honestly, I just don’t know what to think of Mazzaro, Cahill and Anderson yet.
Time will tell.
Trotter - February 22, 2009
if nomar signs
looks like theyve run out of patience w/ barton
he may have been carlos pena’d, lousy season plus maturity issues
kind of interesting, since this time last offseason he was hyped to be their next great player.
considering, theyve had so much patience with other players (crosby) its a bit surprising,
bringing in giambi, rumoprs about nick johnson/nomar, doolittle/carter waiting for a chance…the pressure is being put on barton
Asfan4ever723 - February 22, 2009
I don't think Nomar affects Barton one way or the other
I think if the A’s sign Nomar, it’s strictly to be a good utility player. He’d probably replace Hannahan and Baisley, and mostly start at 3B against occasional LHP, as well as pinch-hit.
Nico - February 22, 2009
Bullish on Holliday, Buck, Devine, Ziggy, Giambi, and above all Sweeney.
So bored of Bearish the last few seasons, I’m meh.
oaklidiot - February 22, 2009
Sure, yeah, Bullish and Bearish
But which A’s players are you Foolsh on?
FreeSeatUpgrade - February 22, 2009
Sheesh.
. . . ish.
oaklidiot - February 22, 2009
There's only one A to be Foolsh on
green star oakland - February 22, 2009
lol
to FSU and you… gonna have to keep that pic, though. Classic!
FoolshGame22 - February 24, 2009
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