Don't worry -- this isn't the post where I say, "Because he's my mom's favorite player and she's barely over the Swisher trade." All this is true, as is the fact that when Rajai pinch hit with the game on the line, and he hadn't been playing much, my mom calmly declared, "He's going to win the game," which he did. And later on, when Davis was hitting well and I said, "He's not a good enough hitter to hit this well playing every day the rest of the season," she calmly retorted, "Yes he is," and she was right.
But while "mother knows best" works ok for child-rearing, it is not the thrust of this particular post. There are two other reasons why it would be a mistake for the A's to deal Rajai in the wake of an apparent Coco Crisp signing.
1. "Sell high." I get it. "Rajai will regress." I know. However, Rajai can regress and still be a big asset to the team. If you believe Davis is going to regress into a .230/.290 hitter, then sure he should be moved to anyone starry-eyed enough to interpret his .305 batting average in 2009 as gospel.
But Rajai may well regress to a line of .270/.330/.380, which would get him on base enough to steal about 40 bases, and to go first-to-third and second-to-home (and occasionally first-to-home because he's Rajai) on exactly a trruckload of singles, and he will play an above-average CF. That's a very good player at a very good salary. Otherwise known as "still a better value, and arguably flat-out a better player (especially when you factor in health) than Coco Crisp."
2. Here's the part that will drive some crazy, because it has nothing to do with the numbers. The A's are a young team trying to encourage their players to play hard, play well, and expect to win. Rajai Davis almost single-handedly ignited a comatose team last year and was as big a reason for the A's 2nd half resurgence as any position player on the team.
You don't trade that, you reward it with a full-time job on your team. Did Davis overachieve? Yes. Isn't that what you want your players to strive to do? "Overachieve and jump-start our team and we'll"...what? Trade you? No. Play you.
Sure, if come May 15th Rajai is hitting .230/.290 you might not start him everyday anymore, but he has earned the right to show that the last 3 months weren't a fluke, and given that the last 3 months were the first time, in his entire major league career, that Rajai Davis has played every day, it doesn't take some absurd leap of faith to think he might play very well in 2010, regression or not.
If the A's reward their overachieving, catalytic players by "selling high" and dumping them for Coco Crisp, they will send a terrible message to a young group of "kids." Are messages important? That's a matter of opinion. But Rajai Davis should be on the A's in 2010, no matter what breakfast cereals the A's add to the menu, and if you don't agree then my mom is going to beat up your mom. So there.
0 recs | 521 comments
Roomy........
2000 comments coming soon…
mrod - December 20, 2009
I think Hairston needs to go
Would a Hairston/Buck + Zeigler package be able to bring in any descent SS who can be a stopgap for a season or 2?
I think at this point Cardenas is the 3B of the future and I’m hoping for Beltre to be a stopgap for him for the season, because at least if we don’t “compete” this season, then we would have a great defense behind our pitching to allow them to develop to where we’ll need them to be in 2011 when Carter, Cardenas, Taylor, and Weeks will (hopefully) be ready to step in as full time starters.
supermarc589 - December 20, 2009
My dream is a Hairston for Maicer Izturis trade.
But I’d do Hairston for Brandon Inge and cash. Or Hairston for Dan Uggla. In fact anything involving Hairston sounds good to me. They could even try Hairston at 3B.
WaddellCanseco - December 20, 2009
Exception: Hairston for Crosby.
Nico - December 20, 2009
I'd take Casey Crosby
WaddellCanseco - December 20, 2009
re uggla
WC, please refer to my sigline
Buck Turgidson - December 20, 2009
Bill underestimates my wild alcoholic nightmares.
WaddellCanseco - December 20, 2009
Sell high.
bye bye, Rajai.
Leopold Bloom - December 20, 2009
+1
Syphon - December 20, 2009
.366 BABIP....
…goodbye Radio!
ST - December 20, 2009
I basically agree with all of this.
I can see Rajai as a 3 WAR player, who isn’t going to decline very fast because of his speed. Sure you can trade him if you get back a 3 WAR SS or 3B, but I doubt that his value around the leagues is perceived to be that high.
Here’s how I get 3 WAR:
Hitting and SB from CHONE: -7
Defense from Sommers (13) and Zimmerman (6): 9
Non SB/CS Baserunning from Dan Fox (2007-2009) (9 in 809 PA): +6
Position: +2
Replacement: +20
Total: +30 = 3 WAR
WaddellCanseco - December 20, 2009
Might want to average in CHONE's projection of his defense too (-1)
which would lower that number to 6.
What’s more important, though, is that trading him for a 2 WAR player at SS or 3B would almost certainly improve the A’s’ actual baseball team, because they would replace him with one of the approximately 92348972 2 WAR outfielders already on the roster and end up winning an extra game.
PaulThomas - December 20, 2009
I don't really like CHONE's defense projections (based on TotalZone) as much as the UZR
based projections. I’d use it only if there was no UZR projection available, and even then with a heavy dose of salt and scouting reports.
WaddellCanseco - December 20, 2009
Projecting Davis as a -1 defender in center is, in short, asinine
thejd44 - December 20, 2009
Why?
I’ve seen plenty of critiques of his technique, people saying that he often does not get good jumps on balls and has to use speed to make up for it. Just being fast does not ipso facto make you a good defensive outfielder.
PaulThomas - December 20, 2009
Where have you seen these critiques?
Fan Scouting Report rates him above average in Instincts (62), First Step (84), Hands (69) and of course Speed (91).
Also Speed Scores do correlate well with OF defense.
WaddellCanseco - December 20, 2009
From my observation, Rajai flat out got better with regular playing time
(maybe more due to relaxing than to the value of getting more practice). In May he was a fast player who made a lot of mistakes, but in June-Sept he seemed consistently to get decent jumps/reads and to run down most everything that was gettable, while showing a pretty good and accurate arm.
Nico - December 20, 2009
Yeah
Rajai never got as much MLB playing time as he did last season. Experience helps. I was never down on him for his mistakes in the first place—he made good plays to go with them and I felt like he’d even out over time.
worldblee - December 20, 2009
Whereas I wanted him DFA in May when he was dropping routine fly balls,
and now I want to marry him and have little Rajcos and Nicjais with him.
Nico - December 20, 2009
Rajai needs to play every day.
If so, keep him.
If he’s not gonna play every day, then trade him, because he sucks off the bench.
Gaijin_Suketto - December 21, 2009
There's another problem here too
viz, that -7 is for 371 PA. And likely includes the consideration that a higher-than-average proportion of those will have a beneficial platoon split.
If he is, God help us, hitting leadoff, you can pretty much double that for a full season.
PaulThomas - December 20, 2009
Hmm...that's a good point. FWIW, his career tOPS vs RHP is 98, so he hasn't shown
much of a platoon split. I guess you can reduce it by a run or something if you really want.
WaddellCanseco - December 20, 2009
sounds like Rajai is more like an average player (~2 WAR)
rather than a three war player. Useful…and i’d probably rather have him than Covelli “Coco” Crisp due to injury history, age, and grit.
I really don’t get the Coco move, and I thought the Holliday trade might be the most confusing thing I’d see for a while from Beane.
DyeLongJustice - December 20, 2009
Does the idea of a "message sent"
Also include that if Rajai goes to another team and continues to perform well, he will likely earn a higher payday than if he were to stay with the A’s? That might be a mitigating factor here — the A’s are the team that is willing to take a chance and if you prove yourself, you can become a free agent and make gobs of money.
I don’t like this whole thing of the A’s (or any other team in this position) being a farm league for the big spenders of the world, but one cannot deny that this is a consideration for some players.
cuppingmaster - December 20, 2009
Rajai still has 4 years to FA, doesn't he? I like the idea of keeping him till then.
WaddellCanseco - December 20, 2009
I like keeping him for 2 years, at which point
he may start losing speed (i.e., everything that makes him good) or may become more expensive at a time when the A’s may have a young CFer ready to take over. But I like having Rajai in place for…well…the exact span of time for which we just signed Coco Crisp.
Nico - December 20, 2009
Maybe but most fast players tend to stay fast and age well if they don't get hurt...
Oops.
WaddellCanseco - December 20, 2009
I have more of a problem with the money than anything
Why not Cust again?
cuppingmaster - December 20, 2009
Flexibility...
When factoring in defense… Crisp is about the same as Cust. So why not get some flexibility?
brenarlo - December 20, 2009
When factoring in offense
Why not keep a guy who can actually use the bat?
cuppingmaster - December 20, 2009
When factoring in defense...
why not get a guy who can actually use the glove?
brenarlo - December 20, 2009
I see the wisdom of having an awesome defensive outfield with a young staff
But I don’t see it at the expense of giving up our best offensive force. I hope we are going to trade someone whose WAR is more a function of offense than defense. Otherwise we’ll have a bunch of 3-1/4-2 games — and I’m not sure that will have a positive effect on the pitchers
cuppingmaster - December 20, 2009
Come on. More high pressure pitches will toughen them up.
WaddellCanseco - December 20, 2009
duh
DyeLongJustice - December 20, 2009
They can still bring back Cust if they really want him.
WaddellCanseco - December 20, 2009
It's clear, though, that they at least don't want Cust at $4M
and are willing to take the risk that another team will sign him. It’s not looking likely he will re-sign
cuppingmaster - December 20, 2009
Where does he really fit?
Royals — seem like the best fit
White Sox — Yes, if they have the budget space
Orioles — already have Ty Wigginton and Luke Scott
Tigers — already have Carlos Guillen
NL — he loses almost all his value if you have to play him in the OF
I find it hard to believe they can’t outbid the Royals if they want to.
WaddellCanseco - December 20, 2009
He does not lose "almost all of his value"
His value in LF is minimally different from his value as a full-time DH.
The Mets and Giants are already known to have made inquiries. And those teams are known for their overpaying tendencies.
PaulThomas - December 20, 2009
Really?
UZR based defense projections (Sommers and Zimmerman) have Cust at -9 and -21.
If you believe the -9 he’s about the same value at LF and DH. At -21 he becomes a 1 WAR player. Even if he’s -15, he’s a 1.5 WAR player, if you buy CHONE’s +21 for offense. He seems to be about an average baserunner, so we can basically ignore that.
WaddellCanseco - December 20, 2009
-21?
That’s ridiculous. It’s actually worse than his career UZR/150, which is only about one season’s worth of fielding opportunities and thus should be regressed substantially to the mean.
PaulThomas - December 20, 2009
The -21 was obtained by regression to Fan Scouting Reports
Even his his career UZR needs to be adjusted for age. I have no problem believing he’ll be worse going forward than his career UZR.
WaddellCanseco - December 20, 2009
defense gets worse in a hurry in the mid thirties, for most players.
oldjacket - December 21, 2009
I see no evidence at all that this is the case
In fact, to the extent that I’ve noticed any pattern at all, it’s of a gradual decline during a player’s 20s, then fairly steady play in the 30s until injuries catch up to the player.
There are plenty of guys who continue to be defensive standouts well into their 30s, and I have not seen many if any formerly good players whose values suddenly and unforeseeably crashed at that age. There’s a noteworthy example sitting right in your signature line.
I grant you that this is nothing like a true study, but the actual studies on defensive decline that I’ve seen left me with the impression that the rate of decline tended to be fairly constant, and very unlike the rate of decline of hitting.
PaulThomas - December 21, 2009
there are plenty of guys that maintain their defensive value but many who do not. For the average player, you can pretty much expect every successive year after their 30th birthday to be their worst, defensively.
oldjacket - December 21, 2009
you’re right that the decline should be fairly constant, BTW, but the slope is much more steep than for offense.
oldjacket - December 21, 2009
another team not on that list could pick him up to come off the bench
For instance, if the Yankees don’t re-sign Damon. And, like PT said below, the gnats ought to have interest too.
cuppingmaster - December 20, 2009
er, above
cuppingmaster - December 20, 2009
Royals have DH more than covered
Butler, Guillen, Kila Monster… But then they also have Dayton Moore….
Blicks - December 21, 2009
Dayton Moore is a good hitter?
mikev - December 21, 2009
He's a better hitter than some of their starters...
CaliforniaJag - December 21, 2009
If it comes down to Rajai and Hairston
then lets hope Hairston is the odd man out.
That leaves a very efficient outfield defense in Rajai/Crisp/Sweeney and Jake Fox becomes Hairston’s bat and he does not have to be much of an a bat to improve on Hairston.
We all know Rajai cannot perform with the bat they way he did the second half but if he hits like even .280 then the speed he brings to the table IMO makes Hairston very expendable when comparing the positives that those two bring to the table.
Trainman - December 20, 2009
Agreed. And Fox has competition from Buck and Cunningham at DH.
And later Carter, Taylor and Doolittle.
WaddellCanseco - December 20, 2009
I will say it again
A’s get injured … Depth is fine
Bud Light - December 20, 2009
question: stat for OBP + SB
The whole Rajai thing brings up a question which perhaps someone here may know the answer to. Is there a traceable stat for the “SLG” equivalent to OBP + SB? I’m trying to gauge how effective it is to steal after getting a slappy single, rather than hit an outright double. Conceptually, they should both about to getting a double (but one of which requires an additional act.
rollierollieOxenfree - December 20, 2009
Yeah
EQA.
I get it from BP here. That should be part of their free site.
grover - December 20, 2009
great. Thanks!
rollierollieOxenfree - December 21, 2009
It's also an additional act that doesn't advance other runners two bases
That’s one big advantage of a double over a “single and possible SB.”
Nico - December 20, 2009
Not to mention the whole CS part
But grover’s answer is more complete.
nevermoor - December 22, 2009
Return?
The only reason I’d accept Rajai being traded is if he brings a significantly better return than what we traded to acquire Hairston. If Rajai can bring back better than a Sean Gallagher level talent who is 1-2 years younger than Gallagher – Gallagher 2.0, if you will – I might be ok with it.
Does anyone remember when the comedian Gallagher sold his act to his brother, and his brother performed as “Gallagher Too”? I don’t like that I remember that, OR that I easily found a link for it.
fps31520 - December 20, 2009
i prefer black gallagher
guy incognito - December 20, 2009
Someone has to be dumped now
Well, actually, someone was already dumped (Cust) who is better than either Crisp OR Davis for what the A’s needed, and was going to cost less than at least one of them. But one guy was going to get bounced anyway. Now you have to kick someone else out of the rotation. The return on Buck or Hairston is likely to be— I think ze Americain word for it is, “crap.” If it’s Patterson, it might actually be nonexistent.
Meanwhile, Aaron Cunningham gets to spend another year stagnating in AAA. Speaking of “messages,” how about the message “even if you hit the crap out of AAA, we’re going to keep you out of the majors in favor of a waiver-wire dude who had a totally uncharacteristic three months”?
PaulThomas - December 20, 2009
C'mon, its not like you believe in messages
Besides, Cunningham “hit the crap out of AAA” to an MLE of a 690 OPS.
grover - December 20, 2009
True
Maybe he sucks.
One excellent way to NOT find out whether that is true or not is to keep putting known mediocrities on the field in front of him.
PaulThomas - December 20, 2009
Why promote someone after a mediocre AAA performance?
I’d force him to hit his way onto the major league team.
WaddellCanseco - December 20, 2009
I wholeheartedly agree with this.
notsellingjeans - December 20, 2009
I watched a lot of RiverCats games last year.
For what little that’s worth, it’s my opinion that Cunningham needs at least a couple more months of AAA.
Gaijin_Suketto - December 21, 2009
Maybe if he grows longer hair,
fans will clamor for him in Oakland.
iglew - December 21, 2009
this from a guy advocating buck for dh. talk about mediocre.
stm72 - December 21, 2009
Well yes, but he's the best option. I didn't say he was a good option.
WaddellCanseco - December 21, 2009
Why isn't it the best option to leave BOTH
Buck and Cunningham in AAA?
Start Sweeney, Davis, and Crisp. Let Hairston be the 4th outfielder, and let Patterson be the multi-purpose 5th-outfielder/pinch-runner/rot-on-the-bench guy.
(Taylor and Carter also stay in AAA.)
iglew - December 21, 2009
If the current roster stays as is,
that’s exactly what I expect. (Though I predict Buck will be dealt before spring training.)
Cunningham should start at AAA until he’s ready to come up to stay, Taylor should start in AAA until he hits his way out, and Carter should start at AAA until he has a clear defensive position and mastery of offspeed pitches.
Nico - December 21, 2009
Agreed.
Patterson, on the other hand, I’m willing to see in Oakland. Not because I think he’s better, but because I don’t. I don’t want Cunningham, Taylor, or Carter rotting on the bench. But if Patterson rots I don’t mind, since I see little chance of a future for him anyway. Also, I think he’s out of options, right?
iglew - December 21, 2009
He is. I still see him as a perfect fit for Petco Park
where his speed might help him be a good defensive corner OFer instead of a meh one, and where he can become “Eric Patterson, triples masheeeeeen!!!!”
That’s why the A’s need to include him as a throw-in to complete the deal that bring Chase Headley to Oakland.
Nico - December 21, 2009
That trade ain't happening
Not while Beltre and Glaus are still on the FA market.
grover - December 22, 2009
Kinda hard to get at-bats for all those guys in AAA
especially when you factor in the rest of the 2009 RockHounds’ outfield, all of whom were pretty good players.
Surely Corey Brown is the starting CF in Sacramento next year. Taylor starts at corner OF. Then you have three spots to put Chris Carter, Travis Buck, Matt Sulentic, Shane Peterson, Aaron Cunningham and Sean Doolittle.
It doesn’t add up. You can probably put 6 players in a rotation for those 5 spots and still get everyone plenty of ABs, but that probably means that Sulentic and Peterson are repeating AA whether they need to or not.
PaulThomas - December 21, 2009
Oh snap.
I didn’t think it through far enough to consider playing time in Sacramento. I guess we need to move someone then. I vote for Buck.
iglew - December 21, 2009
Im not really worried about messing with Sulentic's playing time.
Hes kind of not that good.
designatedforassignment - December 21, 2009
I guess you could do that and make Fox the everyday DH
You’d still need a bench OF though. Who’s that? Patterson? That’s a pretty weak bench.
WaddellCanseco - December 22, 2009
Hairston is the bench OF in my scenario
I imagine enough days off etc for the main three that he’ll still get plenty of ABs.
iglew - December 22, 2009
i know you weren't advocating buck per se, but i want to jump start the discussion on buck. i'm tired of him and his suckiness....
with bobby crosby gone, i need to turn my anger on some one and unfortunately it’s buck.
stm72 - December 22, 2009
Why is it you were so against Wallace getting called up to play a tougher defensive position
Yet so eager to call up Cunningham when he offers a similar minor league line yet plays at a position that demands even more offense?
grover - December 20, 2009
maybe because
Wallace would cost runs on defense, on top of having a crappy MLE. I’m not trying to put words in PT’s mouth. That’s just my guess.
colin - December 20, 2009
That's part of it
Two other factors are in play though. First, Wallace doesn’t have to start burning options until 2011, while Cunningham is already burning them; second, Wallace has not spent a lot of time in AAA. If he put up good-not-great numbers for a second consecutive season and wasn’t called up, I’d start worrying about stagnation for him, too.
PaulThomas - December 20, 2009
Problem with that argument
Cunningham has almost exactly as much AAA experience as Wallace.
103 G/476 PA vs. 106 G/466 AB (I don’t think playoff games are included in that count but the PA’s are.)
Total Zone says Cunningham was a below-average defender the past 3 years. It also says Wallace was slightly above average in 2009 (and below average in 2008).
And lets face it, if Wallace was still in the Oakland organization he’d have gotten called up at some point this season and most likely well before September. He’d only burn an option if he bounced between Sac and Oakland because he wouldn’t need to be added to the 40 man roster until the A’s were going to call him up.
grover - December 20, 2009
Alright, I recognize a loser when I see one
I’ll abandon this tack.
Thinking about why I am in favor of Cunningham getting called up and not Wallace, I think it’s because I feel like Wallace still has a lot of room for improvement in his skills. Waiting around for that improvement is a good idea, because it maximizes the value you get from him at the MLB level.
Cunningham has never been viewed as a tools type of player. I don’t really see his level of play rising much in the next few years. The sole question with him is whether that level of play is “good enough” or not. And the only way to figure that out is to give him an extended tryout at the big-league level.
To put this another way, minor league time has both informational value (it tells you how good a player is, or might be) and developmental value (playing time in advanced baseball makes players better). I feel like the values of each of these aspects of more minor league time are pretty low for Cunningham and pretty high for Wallace.
PaulThomas - December 21, 2009
I buy that
grover - December 21, 2009
one of those two (Buck/Hairston) + Ziegler/Wuertz
Should get SOMETHING.
cuppingmaster - December 20, 2009
Uh, that's Ziegler or Wuertz getting "something"
and the outfielder being thrown in because, well, it’s not like he’s helping Oakland anymore.
Why not throw in Coco Crisp? (I know this is not allowed by the rules. Don’t get pedantic on me.) Or how about just a bag filled with 5 million dollars?
PaulThomas - December 20, 2009
Well, right
But we have to get rid of some bodies as you mentioned. Someone could use a platoon outfielder, which likely means Hairston goes, I just don’t know who would take him. Gnats?
cuppingmaster - December 20, 2009
there are men in my living room watching football and screaming because raiders just tied game
i miss baseball….should i kick them out? hehe
OakA'sHoney - December 20, 2009
A rational person would say that kicking them out won't bring back baseball.
I say sure. Kick them out just for fun.
WaddellCanseco - December 20, 2009
if you send them out with a six-pack of sierra nevada
you might get a decent return
cuppingmaster - December 20, 2009
Braves have Matt Diaz
Marlins have Alejandro de Aza
Mets have the small Chris Carter
Diamondbacks have Eric Byrnes and Brandon Allen
Hairston’s gotta be better than those guys
WaddellCanseco - December 20, 2009
White Sox have De Aza...
Link
FWIW
athleticsBB4life - December 20, 2009
Yikes! So the Marlins have...Brett Carroll?
WaddellCanseco - December 20, 2009
Cust's only contribution
was 25 HR’s a year; he can’t play the OF, and the book is memorized on him: he’s not going to bring a 380 OBP to the table anymore either.
So how can you suggest either Crisp or especially Davis would be lagging behind Cusp “for what the A’s needed.?”
The A’s need people on base, and the ability to score on a single. Cust can’t go 1>3 or 2>H for squat; either Davis or Crisp do it in their sleep.
I am a huge fan of Cust, but I see no future in Oakland for him; there are so many players who can likely perform as well (Powell, Everidge, Barton, Carter, Taylor, just for a few) if all you’re looking for is some pop at DH. Heck, Eric Chavez can probably DH a lot better than Cust.
So no, Cust brings nothing to the table anymore, in comparison to the CHEAP players (exception Chavez, but he’s not going anywhere), especially in comparison to either Davis or Crisp.
Or maybe I should have just asked what you meant by “for what the A’s needed.”
BoyHowdee - December 20, 2009
If "the A's need people on base," perhaps they should have kept
the guy who gets on base better than anyone else on the team. That’s Jack Cust.
Nico - December 20, 2009
Jack gets on base
but can’t do much with it. So he can’t drive in many runs with a walk, he can’t run fast enough to put him leading off with a walk, and he doesn’t hit enough HR’s to justify keeping him around just to hit HR’s. When he was the ONLY guy getting on base, it was fun to have him around.
But this is Christmas, and now it looks like there a few players coming along, making Cust at best a role player.
BoyHowdee - December 20, 2009
Whereas Crisp goes second-to-home and first-to-third in his sleep,
but doesn’t actually get on base much when he’s awake.
Nico - December 20, 2009
I'm not a fan of Coco Crisp
I just think at this point, he’s nonetheless a better option than Cust, all else being equal.
BoyHowdee - December 20, 2009
On a team with Rajai Davis and no power whatsoever, I disagree
Nico - December 20, 2009
Buster Olney thinks the A's are going for premium defense
Sweeney, Crisp, Davis in the OF link He makes an interesting point about Oakland Boston and Seattle.
Jessse - December 20, 2009
I don't mind a running and good fielding A's OF
Our pitching is solid and if we play small ball, it’s a better fit for our roster than trying to walk and them mash the ball. Mashers, we ain’t got.
worldblee - December 20, 2009
What do you mean "all else being equal" here?
What is the “else” that’s equal?
thejd44 - December 20, 2009
I think he means "all l's" being equal
For example, the ‘l’ in “example” is equal to the “l” in “equal.”
Nico - December 20, 2009
$$$$$$$$
is mostly the “all else being equal” because when looking at them side by side, nothing else is close to equal.
Put another way, what does Cust do for you that a healthy Crisp won’t? Or Davis, if we’re only going to use 2nd-half numbers? (But wait: Davis out-performed Cust both for the year AND the second half, on an overall performance basis.)
BoyHowdee - December 20, 2009
Um, the point of getting on base isn't so the player can "do something" with it
The other guys on the team should, you know, help once in a while.
thejd44 - December 20, 2009
If you read my note
instead of just the first line, you’d note I pointed out when the “other guys” “help once in a while” Jack CAN"T DO ANYTHING WITH IT because he can’t go 1>3 or 2>H consistently.
BoyHowdee - December 20, 2009
So it's better to have players who get on base... LESS?
Seriously, explain how that makes any damn sense.
thejd44 - December 20, 2009
Fewer times "not going first-to-third"?
Nico - December 20, 2009
Well, hey, sign me to a contract.
I guarantee I’ll not go first to third less than anybody in the league.
thejd44 - December 20, 2009
Ehhh?
That’s the point: Jack can’t do it, so he manages to get to second if someone singles after he just walked.
BoyHowdee - December 20, 2009
What I think youre trying to get to
is that
CC getting on base slightly less than Cust but having the ability to go 1>3, 2>H, and steal bases is more valuable than Cust’s ability to get on base more often because he can’t do much on the basepaths
supermarc589 - December 20, 2009
Right
Except, this is completely, utterly wrong. It isn’t more valuable than Cust’s hitting ability. This is a known fact.
PaulThomas - December 20, 2009
It isn't completely, utterly wrong
However, it would require Crisp displaying excellent base running ability a certain number of times to compensate for the lesser OBP.
grover - December 20, 2009
I know that there is a theoretical possibility that a player could make up for a lower OBP through baserunning
In this instance, however, the application is wrong. This is NOT that exceptional circumstance.
PaulThomas - December 21, 2009
Looking back at the thread
I’m not sure exactly how much less OBP we’re talking about, so you’re probably right.
grover - December 21, 2009
Crisp is probably worth about 3 runs/year on the non SB bases more
than Cust using Dan Fox’s numbers. That’s not a lot. There’s not that much difference in overall value nor in cost. The big difference is that Cust is a lot more durable and isn’t coming off shoulder surgery.
WaddellCanseco - December 20, 2009
If only you could just use the second half to project Jack
Jack want’s several million dollars to play for the A’s. There’s your first consideration.
Here’s his numbers: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/custja01.shtml?redir
Where did I say someone should get on base less? That’s just asinine. The A’s are rebuilding the team with speed; Jack doesn’t have any. He strikes out at a record-challenging rate.
Last year, Jack had 612 Plate Appearances, during which he hit 25 HR’s. He had 70 RBI’s, meaning at best he drove 45 runs during the leftover 587 PA’s.
Jack has ONE career triple.
Funny as hell some of you seeminly prefer Jack to well, almost anyone else we have available.
Remember, I’m a fan of his; I think he’s had a great human-interest story. But no way in heck does he belong on the 2010 A’s.
BoyHowdee - December 20, 2009
I'm not just using the second half
But given that we know he changed his approach to start 2009, and given how well he did in the second half, it’s reasonable to suggest he may still be capable of maintaining a high OBP in 2010.
Nico - December 20, 2009
I'll concede his OBP, hell, use .400 if you want to.
But when your 400 OBP has zero triples and only 16 doubles in 612 PA’s, then it is apparent his “speed” isn’t going to help you, and he “only” hit 25 HR’s…again, if you put the 400 OBP in front, he’s an instant bottleneck, and if you put him lower in the order, how many runs is he going to drive in with 90-100 walks?
BoyHowdee - December 20, 2009
So let me just say: You're simply incorrect
A hitter with a .400 OBP will help your offense a lot, period. And if he hits 25 HRs with a .400 OBP, he’s a really, really good offensive player no matter how fast he runs.
Nico - December 20, 2009
So let me just say: You're simply incorrect
You’re letting yourself get seduced by that 400 OBP, but 200 of that 400 is Walks, and there’s not enough speed to do anything but get to second on a following single, then to third on another one (unless it is a long one) … if that man is in front, you just bottlenecked your offense to need at least 2 more, if not 3 more, hits to bring Jack home from 1B.
To say it doesn’t matter how fast he runs (or in Jack’s case, "doesn’t run) just isn’t accurate at all.
BoyHowdee - December 20, 2009
You realize this just isn't true, right?
mikev - December 20, 2009
this isn't like arguing Superman vs. Batman
this is like arguing 2+2=4 vs 2+2=3.38.
There is a right answer, unless everyone’s on acid and agreed to drop “reality” as a constant.
Gaijin_Suketto - December 21, 2009
+1
stm72 - December 21, 2009
Hello to you, doctor!
Gaijin_Suketto - December 21, 2009
Hello to you as well!
stm72 - December 21, 2009
A good example of the rare player
who hits 25 HRs with a .400 OBP and doesn’t steal bases or run very fast is Kevin Youkilis.
Nico - December 20, 2009
Sure, but Youkilis is oodles more valuable on defense than Cust
WaddellCanseco - December 20, 2009
Yes, I'm acting like he's DHing,
just saying that he’s a terrific offensive player. Any hitter who gets on base at a .400 clip and hits 25 HRs is a terrific offensive player regardless of speed.
Nico - December 20, 2009
But we're not discussing
Cust value soley as an offensive player. I’m aware the conversation got dragged that way — I helped drag it — but it got here because there was noise that Cust brought more overall value to the team than did Davis or Crisp.
Davis’ offensive numbers were at least equitable to Cust’s, and he plays defense.
It’s hard for me to mount any excitement for Crisp, but his historical numbers (do we get to throw away last year?) are offensively equitable. (And before anyone gets excited about "Where are these guys 25 HR’s….puhlease)
Davis and Crisp play excellent defense to go along with pretty good offense. Cust has a pretty good offense, and is a butcher in the OF.
There’s no companison.
BoyHowdee - December 20, 2009
I wouldn't say that either Davis or Crisp is as
good as Cust on offense. I’d say that their overall value is in the 2 WAR – 3 WAR range for each of them. The only exception is Crisp, who might be injured and therefore worthless.
WaddellCanseco - December 20, 2009
jumping in re: Cust
Of course he’s a butcher, there’s no denying that. BUT he was/is the most significant offensive force on this club, like it or not. His WAR value is dragged down in fact by his defense, and Rajai has more defensive contribution to his WAR than Cust does.
The way this team is made up right now, we have a surplus of defense and we just acquired someone who is almost wholly defensively oriented. AND not only that, we overpaid for him when Cust almost certainly will not sign with us because we didn’t want to pay him 80% of what Crisp will make
cuppingmaster - December 20, 2009
Unless no one else will sign him for 75% of what Crisp will make
WaddellCanseco - December 20, 2009
Maybe
But if our metrics are right, than other teams should be falling over themselves signing him for the steal price of $3.2M. Unless we are falling over ourselves overvaluing him.
cuppingmaster - December 20, 2009
What a clumsy world we live in
WaddellCanseco - December 20, 2009
If no one signs him for $3.2 M
I look forward to the debate about whether our metrics were not right or 30 GMs are just too stupid to know what’s good for them. (Or, I suppose, collusion.)
iglew - December 21, 2009
"Equitable" does not mean equal
It means fair, just, evenhanded, etc.
One thing that is not “fair” is judging two players’ hitting ability solely on the basis of their most recent season, particularly when one of those players did not even play a full year.
PaulThomas - December 20, 2009
I can bring up run expectancy tables if you really want,
but speed on the basepaths is simply just an almost negligible factor when compared to actually getting on base.
danmerqury - December 20, 2009
Usually yes, but Crisp and Rajai are good enough on
the bases that it matters.
WaddellCanseco - December 20, 2009
Right brain comment...
if it so happens that Crisp and Davis are 9&1 in the order, sometimes they’ll both get on base, you know, back to back…
that would be really cool!
Gaijin_Suketto - December 21, 2009
Oh man...
Not even touching this one.
lenscrafters - December 20, 2009
Gee, I wonder what the reply to that will be...
Nico - December 20, 2009
It's pretty much
LOL. You can have your man-crush on Cust. Bottom line, he’s a DH-only, 25-HR, 100-walk guy, and that’s about it. You can sabermetric the hell out of it, but …. well, if the rest of your team hits 280, maybe…but like I said, not for the $$$ Cust wants.
Not when any one of a half-dozen other guys will do the same or better job for major-league minimum.
BoyHowdee - December 20, 2009
Actually, I was anticipating a
TWSS.
Nico - December 20, 2009
TWSS???
Sorry. Don’t know that one.
BoyHowdee - December 20, 2009
Thrive with Susan Slusser.
Every once in a while, we pay props to our favorite beat writer.
Gaijin_Suketto - December 21, 2009
Isn't this the point where you say
“The joke is on you guys, you really thought I was serious??!!”
elcroata - December 21, 2009
You should take that one, BoyHowdee
If you said “Psych!” right now, and lied and said you were kidding, you might be able to pull some sort of victory from these ashes…
it would be like Bobby Ewing in the shower the next morning…
Gaijin_Suketto - December 21, 2009
I know a guy
its true, I do. Anyhoo, he told me that he likes to start arguments wit people on the internet tubes.
Casey? is that you?
Future Ed - December 21, 2009
that's the thing about Cust...
he got on and was rarely driven in. When others were on… Cust rarely brought them home.
athleticsBB4life - December 20, 2009
One of those is a lot more Cust's fault than the other!
Nico - December 20, 2009
agreed...
just making an elementary comment about thejd44’s post:
athleticsBB4life - December 20, 2009
Cust seems to get a pass on the...
bringing runners home part by the pro-Cust camp.
athleticsBB4life - December 20, 2009
No he doesn't.
Because that’s simply not true.
lenscrafters - December 20, 2009
Oh for heaven's sake.
Yes, it’s Jack Cust’s fault that the everyone else sucked at hitting.
The whole “Jack Cust doesn’t hit when guys are on base!” mantra has been repeated over and over by Cust detractors since the guy’s arrival. And quite frankly, it’s complete and utter bullshit.
Heck, I don’t even need sabermetric numbers to disprove that statement.:
Jack Cust (Career)
Bases Empty: .229/.363/.431 OPS .794
Runners On: .252/.387..485 OPS .872
RISP: .253/.415/.473 OPS .888
Bases Loaded: .276/.350/.552 OPS .902
Oh what the heck? Jack Cust actually hits about 100 OPS points higher when there’s guys on base and in scoring position? And he does better in pretty much every offensive category (AVG, OBP, etc)? No way!
And even in 09, his worst year with the bat:
Bases Empty: .244/.348/.417 OPS: .765
Runners On:.234/.367/.417 OPS: .784
RISP: .238/.411/.469 OPS: .881
Bases Loaded: (25 at bats) .500/.500/1.500 OPS: 2.000
He’s still hitting better with guys on. It’s such a small sample though, and I’m only bringing it up because someone will inevitably question his numbers this year.
And lastly, this is an excellent post by mikev disproving Cust’s “deficiencies” with runners on.
So once and for all, can we just drop these stupid, untrue accusations about what Cust doesn’t do well?
lenscrafters - December 20, 2009
He didn't do it with any mental toughness
Q.E.D.
Nico - December 20, 2009
B.P.O.D.!
That’s “Best Post of the Day” for those not in the know.
paris7 - December 20, 2009
is this the new form of QOTM?
i miss those days.
[resumes lurk]
oakinboston - December 21, 2009
I bet Poppy probably put in at least ten hours worth of work on each QOTM compilation
Gaijin_Suketto - December 21, 2009
back in those days.. i'd look to see if I made that list once
and be stoked if I did.
Gaijin_Suketto - December 21, 2009
+1
mikev - December 21, 2009
Out of 70 RBI
Nothing stupid or untrue about it. The guy can’t run. No matter where you put him in the lineup, he’ll be a bottleneck. Unless he hits one of his 25-30 HR’s a year.
BoyHowdee - December 20, 2009
DUSTY BAKER IS THAT YOU?????
mikev - December 20, 2009
Have to give him credit though. He hasn't resorted to the "He clogs the bases!" card yet...although "bottleneck" comes pretty close.
lenscrafters - December 20, 2009
He's totally used the clogging the bases argument
He just hasn’t actually unlimbered that exact phrase yet.
PaulThomas - December 20, 2009
What sucks here, is there is a legitimate emotional argument
It is boring to watch Jack Cust run the bases. As a fan of bread and circuses, I wish we could have a free-substitution designated pinch runner for him every time he gets on base.
Yet, the person arguing it is arguing it pseudo-sabermetrically, which always gets stomped on around these parts, and rightfully so.
Gaijin_Suketto - December 21, 2009
What I've tried to introduce into the debate
is that BoyHowdee is vastly underrating how good a .400 OBP is. Any hitter capable of a .400 OBP is already bordering on elite independent of their BA, power, or speed. It’s very unusual, and very good, to have that good an OBP.
Nico - December 21, 2009
The Seattle Game
where Cust stole his first base, I have to admit I found it exciting. Don’t forget the bunt attempts against the shift, the visibly shaken 3rd basement was great entertainment value as well……
hishnik - December 21, 2009
True, although the reductio ad absurdum conclusion to this
is to introduce free substitution at every position constantly, which would lead to a game in which position players are purely specialized as either DHs, baserunners, or defenders.
That would unquestionably increase the level of athletic skill with which an individual play is played out, but at the cost of taking out most of the strategy in the game.
PaulThomas - December 21, 2009
You're right, and that's why I'm not for it as a connoisseur of the game.
But my inner five year old hates base cloggers.
My inner five year old also says Cust should bunt to third against the shift every possible at-bat until they stop it.
Gaijin_Suketto - December 21, 2009
Your inner 5 year old is right about that second part
nevermoor - December 22, 2009
+1
xbhaskarx - December 21, 2009
Dan Fox's numbers say he's an average baserunner. Where do you
get the idea that he’s Bengie Molina?
WaddellCanseco - December 20, 2009
From TV announcers, probably.
They invariably assume that any guy who hits HRs and has shitty defense must also be slow, even if he’s not. We used to get the same thing with Erubiel Durazo.
It’s a dumb assumption, but it’s rampant among lazy announcers who haven’t done their homework. Maybe they’re thinking of Babe Ruth.
iglew - December 21, 2009
Ruth had 123 steals including 10 steals of home
I think he was fairly quick, especially when he was younger. He did get thrown out a lot, but just sayin’…
worldblee - December 21, 2009
They flashed him a gin and tonic sign from the dugout
to give him that extra inventive.
LoneStranger - December 21, 2009
ahem... incentive.
LoneStranger - December 21, 2009
It works both ways
grover - December 21, 2009
Ruth had 0 SBs that were ever shown on SportsCenter
Ergo, he was slow.
Nico - December 21, 2009
BTW
The second half last year, the A’s were 3rd in the AL in hitting.
Cust “brought home” 70 runs last year, 25 of which were himself trotting across the plate. 45 RBI’s last year that didn’t involve a HR. That ain’t clutch.
BoyHowdee - December 20, 2009
Gosh, let's see
He was FIRST on the team in runs scored, and second in runs batted in.
Using two decidedly idiotic metrics to try and determine how good a player is, I still can’t figure out wtf you’re talking about.
mikev - December 20, 2009
I'm pretty sure "clutch" doesn't mean "total of non-HR RBIs".
danmerqury - December 20, 2009
YAY, YOU QUOTED ME!
mikev - December 20, 2009
Stop using all-caps style, you jerk :p
PaulThomas - December 21, 2009
SORRY
er..
Sorry.
mikev - December 21, 2009
MikeV is at the plate, so the shift is on.
iglew - December 21, 2009
Fuck the shift, just bring the infield in and I'm done for.
mikev - December 21, 2009
Makes sense...
Assuming teams are correct in their belief that the best way to defend Cust is to use a unique “shift” (i haven’t seen the numbers, but my eyes tell me it’s likely the case), having guys on base would help Cust out by preventing teams from playing their usual defensive alignment against them.
rageon - December 21, 2009
A lesson in poor argument:
“was 25 HR’s a year; he can’t play the OF, and the book is memorized on him: he’s not going to bring a 380 OBP to the table anymore either.”
In basically one sentence, you say “A player could only do Good Thing A (which, btw, was an underselling of the actual production provided), some other stuff that’s irrelevant, and he’s no longer going to do Good Thing B, either.” But if he could only do A, then he must never have done B. Right? But wait, he DID! So premise number 1 is wrong. He did, at minimum, two good things.
Also, where’s the evidence to back up the point about his OBP. There are arguments for why his decline is real, but you don’t actually make them. You just state it as fact.
Sorry, not buying it.
thejd44 - December 20, 2009
Plus, one has to consider that Cust's OBP in the second half was .399
Maybe he’s in decline, but it’s not exactly a given.
Nico - December 20, 2009
If Jack
could steal a base and would play for a lot less than what he wants, he has value.
And speaking of “poor arguments”, noted above…that post is almost incomprehensible.
BoyHowdee - December 20, 2009
Seems like you just don't care for slow players,
which is totally your right.
Nico - December 20, 2009
I'm fine with slow players
if they’re in the 40-HR, “maybe advance a player even on a slow grounder” route or some other productive avenue. But 185 Strikeouts (last year) only helped in the way that he at least didn’t GIDP.
The old A’s mold of walk, walk, 3-run HR isn’t going to be there anymore; ’roids are bad bad bad now.
Jack just doesn’t fit in anymore.
BoyHowdee - December 20, 2009
Have 3-run HR by non 40-HR guys been outlawed or something?
WaddellCanseco - December 20, 2009
Well, not exactly....
but the legit ones that are left are employed by teams other than the A’s.
BoyHowdee - December 20, 2009
Well sure, now that Cust isn't there.
WaddellCanseco - December 20, 2009
*facepalm
You’ve been talking about Jack Cust for too long.
Your boner is showing
supermarc589 - December 20, 2009
How do you know I'm not a woman?
WaddellCanseco - December 20, 2009
Because of the boner?
grover - December 20, 2009
Stupid boner...gave me away again!
WaddellCanseco - December 20, 2009
You get more points for hitting it further and being on ESPN
don’t you watch the game?
bobnothing - December 20, 2009
well shit, then,
let’s move in the g***amned fences, then.
Pennant porch, anyone?
(strokes the air around him in a special way, but sarcastically)
Gaijin_Suketto - December 21, 2009
You have a very odd definition of "likely"
You also have a very odd definition of “like,” since you just claimed that the team’s former starting DH couldn’t outhit two prospects who’ve barely touched AAA, a backup catcher, a 26-year-old 10th round pick mediocrity and a guy who’s barely been outside the trainers’ room in 3 years and hasn’t hit even as well as Cust did in 2009 since 2005.
PaulThomas - December 20, 2009
PT, wouldn't it make sense that Cunningham is the trade piece?
More trade value than Buck, Hairston, or Patterson, but pretty expendable now with an OF of those guys plus Sweeney, Davis, Crisp, very soon Taylor, and pretty soon Doolittle and maybe Carter, followed by Desme and C. Brown.
Nico - December 20, 2009
Where do you get the idea that Cunningham has much trade value?
In order of value I’d go Taylor, Sweeney, Carter
Big Gap
Hairston , Rajai, Crisp (with his permission)
Big Gap
Buck
Big Gap
Cunningham
Small Gap
Desme, Brown, Doolittle, Patterson
WaddellCanseco - December 20, 2009
Cunningham has excellent minor league numbers from A to AAA
and he’s still only 23. Why would Buck, with more failed stints in the bigs, more injuries, worse minor league credentials, and older, have more value?
Nico - December 20, 2009
Cunningham is a bit ginger looking, isn't he
bobnothing - December 20, 2009
and everyone knows that that's a bad trait in a baseball player
Not even the might Chad Gaudin could overcome that handicap
bobnothing - December 20, 2009
hey, man...
Chad Gaudin is a world mutha**ckin’ champeen!
Gaijin_Suketto - December 21, 2009
Bobby Kielty. World Champion.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/COL/COL200710280.shtml
LoneStranger - December 21, 2009
Because Buck has also had successful stints in the bigs
Why do you say his minor league credentials are worse?
WaddellCanseco - December 20, 2009
Aren't Cunningham's better?
It’s off the top of my head, so I stand corrected if wrong.
Nico - December 20, 2009
I don't really know, but it doesn't make sense to me to separate minor league
from major league credentials. The overall credentials are stronger for Buck, except the one where his head is still ringing.
WaddellCanseco - December 20, 2009
Check for yourself
here
Sacramento numbers only:
iglew - December 21, 2009
I saw a lot of Cunningham last year,
and if it were my decision to make, he’d have to have one hell of a spring to make the ballclub out of s/t this year. Yet, he would be the first player I would call up if any of the starting outfielders were hurt or unproductive, and I would PLAY CUNNINGHAM EVERY DAY.
Gaijin_Suketto - December 21, 2009
Assuming we really do add Crisp,
and no other outfielders are sent away, I agree with starting Cunningham in AAA. The point is that he’s ahead of Buck on the depth chart.
iglew - December 21, 2009
Not really
The bottom third of MLB GMs, who are the idiots you want to be taking advantage of in this sort of situation, will look at his SSS MLB numbers and refuse to give him serious consideration.
PaulThomas - December 20, 2009
Okay
Let’s assume Billy Beane isn’t insane.
This means he’s in the process of working out a deal for a third baseman and/or shortstop and/or #2 or #3 starter.
My own feeling is that of the outfielders in line to be on the team, only Carter and Taylor are unobtainium. That means that for the right price, Davis, Sweeney, Hairston, Buck, Cunnningham, and Patterson, (and maybe Demel too) are all available. Knowing what we know about Billy Beane, he’s not “shopping” anyone…he’s gotten Crisp so people know that there’s an outfielder sale a-brewing, which means teams will come calling. All he has to do is sit back and wait for the best package. Of course, if nothing shows up, then Sacramento will have the best outfield in AAA.
richwol1 - December 20, 2009
Speaking of unobtainium
Has anyone seen the Avatar flick?
BoyHowdee - December 20, 2009
Yes!
Visually = unparalleled.
Plot = average.
mayfieldcol - December 20, 2009
Just got back from it tonight. Plot = Below average.
Cameron gets -17 UZR, hope for future regression to mean (see Aliens, 4 WAR, worth $3M on today’s market).
But, he’s slow on the basepaths, and is constantly clogging them up.
paris7 - December 20, 2009
agreed.
beautiful, and awesome, but the plot boiled down to a watered-down Dune (the book) with a “green” message.
Elston Gunn - December 22, 2009
I'd guess Sweeney isn't really available either
I think the A’s love Sweeney.
Nico - December 20, 2009
I think the case with Sweeney, as with Davis, as with every player
is that they’re available for the right offer.
In Sweeney’s case, however, I suspect that they A’s value him more highly than other teams (for better or for worse), so that ‘right offer’ won’t every be forthcoming.
bobnothing - December 20, 2009
Obviously, there's an offer every team could make that would
pry any one A’s player away. But Sweeney is part of the nucleus Beane intends to keep together for years, so I don’t see him being part of any reasonable trade. A Mulder-type trade, sure. But that’s an understood exception, when a GM is willing to make a really lopsided deal.
Nico - December 20, 2009
To be fair, though
That’s what we thought (or at least, I thought) about Wallace until about a week ago
bobnothing - December 20, 2009
Yes, except Wallace was traded for another "nucleus, impact" player
so it was at worst a lateral move in that regard — except for the fact that a player with no lateral movement was dealt for a player who has some!
Nico - December 20, 2009
Ha, yeah, I know what you're saying
Just – we could be surprised by something like this again. Like I said, with Sweeney, I don’t see it happening due to the difference in perceived value.
Or at least, my perception of that difference.
Which might be skewed by not knowing anything about much
bobnothing - December 20, 2009
Yeah, my thought
Particularly since this coming year will be the year when we actually do find out if he has hidden power. If it doesn’t emerge in 2010, it won’t emerge. What a horror if Beane trades Sweeney and the guy suddenly becomes a 30-homer hitter.
Of course, it’s possible there are folks here who would say there’s no way that could happen.
richwol1 - December 20, 2009
Can we trade Sweeney to the Dodgers for some hothead?
Nico - December 20, 2009
LOL
That was mean. :o)
BoyHowdee - December 20, 2009
Griffey will help Bradley in Seattle
How many people and organizations does that make now that have tried to “Help” Bradley?… Oh man….
420Sharksfan - December 21, 2009
Blah
forgot the link.. http://www.chicagobreakingsports.com/2009/12/piniella-believes-griffey-will-help-bradley-succeed-in-seattle.html
420Sharksfan - December 21, 2009
Some of those were successful.
Both Frank Thomas and Ron Washington did help Bradley. That’s a big part of why he was just fine in Oakland in 2006, and in Texas in 2008.
I don’t think it’s unreasonable to think that Griffey would help him, too. He’s someone Bradley respects, he’s black, and he has a track record of helping difficult guys get along. Other things that I think will help Bradley get along in Seattle are the current abundance of non-Latino black guys on the team, and the extreme mellowness of Mariners fans compared to fans in other stadiums.
iglew - December 21, 2009
Waitng for godot
sweeney power.
Future Ed - December 21, 2009
List of 4 things to do today:
1. Count on Sweeney to develop power.
2. Hope this is the year Crosby puts it all together.
3. Assign Milton Bradley a veteran mentor and hope he becomes a model teammate.
4. Wait for Godot.
Nico - December 21, 2009
I can't go on. I must go on.
Leopold Bloom - December 21, 2009
Hope deferred maketh the something sick
bobnothing - December 21, 2009
"Fuck you, Shakespeare!"
-Pete Rose
Gaijin_Suketto - December 21, 2009
The A's Organization
never fails to speak of the love they have for Sweeney….Be it Geren or Beane.
hishnik - December 21, 2009
What we know and what we don't know
Being loyal A’s fans the only thing we truly know is Beane most likely trading 1 of the surplus of outfielders. Most likely not to be traded is Sweeney because Beane has stated many times how much he loves him unless its for a top rated 3b. So that leaves Buck, Hairston, and Davis as the ones being traded even maybe Cunningham since the A’s did pick up Taylor. Hairston has the best trade value. Davis almost as much because of playing CF very well. Whoever Beane gets either plays 3b or SS. All the rest is us just guessing on the next move.
Arcman - December 20, 2009
OR...........
he’s completely lost faith in Hairston, Buck, or Cunningham.
brenarlo - December 20, 2009
Probably all 3 or them
by the moves he has made
Trainman - December 20, 2009
He may have lost faith in buck/cunningham much earlier
Though there’s less track record to judge cunningham. Hairston, taylor, and crisp is basically telling buck to find a new team
MagicMike23 - December 20, 2009
I don't think the A's have lost faith in Cunningham
But I do think he’s a tweener type (“good but not great”) capable of being worth more as a trade piece to address a weakness elsewhere.
Nico - December 20, 2009
No reason to lose faith
in Hairston; the guy was hitting 300 in San Diego. Can’t do much about the injury, and if the injury is a long-term risk, he’s not tradeable.
Buck is out-of-favor with Billy, and that has ALWAYS guarenteed a one-way trip out of Oakland. Billy has cut his nose off to spite the face a number of times; Buck will be no exception.
Cunningham has some potential; just hard to see him getting enough playing time at the MLB level anymore. Last year was kinda his window, and it didn’t pan out.
BoyHowdee - December 20, 2009
Cunningham
His defense was not very good. I see him as a 4th outfield type unless he can improve his outfield play. Buck is a goner unless Beane is going to use him as the DH.
Arcman - December 20, 2009
They could also trade Carter or Taylor
WaddellCanseco - December 20, 2009
Not happening
Carter and Taylor (along with Sweeney, Suzuki, Cardenas, and Anderson) are precisely the kind of player Beane is trying to acquire, and hold onto, for years. He’s been consistent about saying that from the start and he has walked the walk. This is the nucleus of “special talent” the A’s hope will return them to glory from 2011-2014.
Nico - December 20, 2009
That's just what Beane is expecting you to think
WaddellCanseco - December 20, 2009
how about Carter for taylor?
Future Ed - December 21, 2009
Zachary was a much better general than Jimmy
WaddellCanseco - December 21, 2009
IDIOT!
Jimmy was a Navy man.
Future Ed - December 21, 2009
Oops I forgot.
My dad was an Army man though.
WaddellCanseco - December 21, 2009
A typical Beane move
Wouldve been to sign Ryan Church and/or Jeremy Reed, but he signs an OF coming off 2 shoulder surgeries for $5mill. i like crisp but 2 mill wouldve been the most i’d offer
MagicMike23 - December 20, 2009
Is that dollar you're quoting
the real deal? I haven’t found the money anywhere.
BoyHowdee - December 20, 2009
I've heard "$4.5M-$5M" and "$5M" quoted, and nothing else.
Nico - December 20, 2009
Good point
The fact that he didn’t go after Ryan Church (who is outstanding in RF, but not so great in CF) makes me think Crisp HAS to be playing CF…otherwise, why not Church? That means Rajai is likely either moving to LF or getting traded.
CaliforniaJag - December 21, 2009
I know what it is!
After the success of the running game last year, Billy has decided to forget the walk/ HR thinking and turn the team into the GoGo Cardinals of 1985! Raj will be playing Coleman and Coco will be our Willie McGee and when Taylor comes up, he will be Jack Clark.
Now if we could just find the next Joaquin “youneverknow” Andujar to anchor the staff.
ChickenStanley - December 20, 2009
Trevor"allhisstatsarebadexceptWins" Cahill?
Gaijin_Suketto - December 21, 2009
The Runnin' A's!
LoneStranger - December 21, 2009
You know what?
Screw the Chargers. There, I said it.
I feel better.
Leopold Bloom - December 20, 2009
Touchdown
Raiders!
Rated-R Superstar - December 20, 2009
THAT was a good game.
Glad I was wrong on my prediction that Russell wouldn’t ever see the field again.
I dislike the AFC West, save Oakland.
Leopold Bloom - December 20, 2009
(plus it probably made sirbed very happy)
Leopold Bloom - December 20, 2009
Hell yeah it did!
sirbed - December 20, 2009
I couldn't believe Russell actually pulled it off.
Wouldn’t have believed it in a million years. And…he actually looked sharp.
danmerqury - December 20, 2009
blind squirrel meets acorn.
Leopold Bloom - December 20, 2009
stop clock meets right time
bobnothing - December 20, 2009
(stopped)
bobnothing - December 20, 2009
Maybe he the guy
who has to be scared, really scared, in order to be effective. Charlie FRYE beats him out???
I’ll tip my hat to the guy. I’m a huge Raiders fan, and for 5 years now, it has just been painful.
BoyHowdee - December 20, 2009
Hell, I figured Losman was going to move in front of Russell on the depth chart.
Guess it’s a slightly different story now.
danmerqury - December 20, 2009
Has to just about be gut-check time
for Russell.
BoyHowdee - December 20, 2009
Losman would have been in instead of JR
If he knew any plays.
worldblee - December 20, 2009
I'm so damn happy right now
anytime we can knock off the evil Broncos I’m a happy boy! Russell got it done when he needed to and Michael Bush was a stud.
sirbed - December 20, 2009
Sweeney for Alex Gordon
Most fair deal out there for both teams.
MagicMike23 - December 20, 2009
Gordon can't hit... and can't field...
Sweeney is a league average hitter and a good fielder. Not sure if that meets my definition of fair.
brenarlo - December 20, 2009
Gordon projects around 3 WAR and Sweeney a bit less.
Why do you say Gordon can’t hit?
WaddellCanseco - December 20, 2009
His career slash line is pretty much the poster boy for "average"
(.250/.331/.415).
Nico - December 20, 2009
I could live with an "average" hitter at third for once.
mikev - December 20, 2009
League average or A's average?
iglew - December 21, 2009
But he's still young enough that he can be expecte to improve on "average"
CHONE projects him at +9 on offense and UZR says he’s basically average on defense. That’s a pretty good player at 3B. Not George Brett or anything, but still…
WaddellCanseco - December 20, 2009
I'm not suggesting he's a good or bad trade target,
just disputing that he’s either “good” or “bad” at the plate so far in his major league career.
Nico - December 20, 2009
So you very strongly believe that he's been neither good nor bad, but take
no position on his future prospects?
WaddellCanseco - December 20, 2009
Correct.
I was only responding to the assertion that “Gordon can’t hit.” He has hit at an incredibly average level so far this career, which does not warrant being characterized as a player who “can’t hit” (nor as a player who “hits really well”).
Nico - December 20, 2009
vision
Watching Raj play makes me feel proud of Beane and the scouts finding players and the loose atmosphere in Oakland allowing guys to be themselves and develop. Raj has excellent eyesight, er pitch recognition, shortens up, goes the other way, can take a walk, at a primer defensive position. If a regression in performance is imminent, due to his pitch recognition skill, he will be an exciting, impact player for three more years minimum. Plus, he stays healthy!!! I do not believe there is a stat for that…yet.
greenpaddedgloves - December 20, 2009
Center fielders article
I cant find the article…
Has anyone else read a recent article about a surplus of Cf’ers in Mlb…I can’t recall the source…
greenpaddedgloves - December 20, 2009
Fangraphs.
Here’s one. A while back they had a different one about how deep the position is.
travdog6 - December 20, 2009
Also, there's this discussion of the
“Rajai Davis trade market” here on AN in September.
iglew - December 21, 2009
A new day is dawning
JaMarcus wins a game…
Oakland wants to build a water front ballpark…And the A’s are listening…
York is willing to cohabitate with Al Davis in an Oakland stadium…
Now only if Don Nelson retires, we get Wall in the draft and we sign and trade for Chris Bosh.
I see light at the end of the Caldecott tunnel…
StewCrew - December 20, 2009
Getting Wall might be the biggest dream here
Warriors will have to play a lot worse than they are now to get Wall, the sure #1 next summer.
But I can see the A’s on the waterfront and the football teams in a single stadium. Not likely, but possible.
Since1972 - December 21, 2009
Didn't they just, you know, draft a point guard last year?
PaulThomas - December 21, 2009
Wall looks to be way better than Curry
Wall looks special. Curry looks like a solid player. Curry could also be a pretty good trade chip.
vignette17 - December 21, 2009
Am I the only person that thinks Stephen Curry isn't gonna be any good?
travdog6 - December 21, 2009
No... I was not impressed by him as an NBA prospect, either
I think I might rather have Jerome Randle running my offense… and he’s fringy even to get drafted at all, much less in the lottery.
Still, it’s kind of throwing good money after bad to take another PG at this point. I guess Wall’s enough better than the alternatives that you swallow hard and take him anyway, but it’s kind of annoying.
PaulThomas - December 21, 2009
I don't think any of you guys are giving Curry enough credit yet
He has not even played a half of a full season in the NBA and people are already writing him off. He’s easily the best passer on the team, he’s probably one of the smartest, if not the smartest player, on the team, and he’s starting to build his confidence in the backcourt with Monta Ellis.
I’ll wait till the end of this season to give Curry a true grade, thanks.
mrod - December 21, 2009
Well I never liked the pick all along,
I’m not just judging him based on this season. I’m just not a fan. I hope he turns into a solid player, but I’m not too optimistic.
travdog6 - December 21, 2009
I've never seen him play in the NBA-- I hardly ever watch NBA hoops
It bores the crap out of me. The games are so incredibly, incredibly meaningless. You could have a regular season that was a month long and it’d do almost as good a job of sorting out the good teams from the bad ones.
My knowledge of him is strictly based on what he showed in college. He was very good there, don’t get me wrong, but he never impressed me as freakishly athletic or quick, or a particularly outstanding shooter or passer. I was quite surprised by where he was drafted relative to other top point guards.
The only category in which he beats Randle is “being taller.”
PaulThomas - December 21, 2009
Well, he's definitely not freakishly athletic, but he does have ability to get to the basket nicely
and he can pass rather well, plus he can definitely shoot the ball when he’s not deferring to guys like Monta. He’s taking his lumps in the league so far, for sure. However, watching him on a nightly basis I have seen him gaining confidence in his shot, taking more initiative, and not being afraid to fail. That’s the only way young guys get better in the NBA and Curry is on the right path.
Will he ever be a superstar? Probably not. Will he have a sustainable and respectable career in the NBA? More than likely….the kid is just too smart to not keep himself in the game.
On your statement about NBA games being meaningless, to a degree I would agree with you. But my main beef with the NBA these days has more to do with the diluting of the league and the lack of fundamentally sound team play. There is way too much “Me first” attitude around the league now, and the gangsta-thuggery afoot these days is nauseating.
I’m only 39 but I feel like I am ancient when watching many of these punks attempting to make a watered down version of “streetball” seem passable as professional basketball. There are some good stars in the league still, but the game has changed so much over the years….-mostly it’s the players and the money- it’s hard to justify going to a game and spending your hard earned cash.
Guess it’s time to start getting familiar with this year’s college class. I’ll check out this Wall kid you mentioned. Cheers!
mrod - December 21, 2009
Wall isn't just a PG
Wall is Dwyane Wade. He’s “the next superstar”. He’s not just any random PG.
CaliforniaJag - December 21, 2009
100% true
if he’s the weight room and puts on a few pounds, look out.
stm72 - December 22, 2009
Very well written piece.
Yes, Rajai should be rewarded for his great play last year. No brainer – A’s should keep him.
jdub69 - December 20, 2009
What is beane doing?
On the low end since a couple years ago, he’s made close to 15-20+ trades varying from minor to major ones. They’ve collected a million back rotation starters, OF’s, relievers, and 1B/DH types. The 3b/SS’s we have seen since baisley, cabrera, hannahan, murphy, pennington, petit, and the wallace/cardenas/patterson trades. Now hopefully they use some of this built up depth at other positions to fill the other needs
MagicMike23 - December 20, 2009
To me, the Crisp signing works best if Beane can turn around and package an OFer
to address the left side of the infield. Is something like Chase Headley for Cunningham & Mazzaro possible? (Disclaimer: I suck at trade equity.) Is Headley still regarded as a potentially decent defensive 3Bman? And if so, what might a fair trade look like?
Nico - December 20, 2009
Now now Nico...
You suck in many ways.
grover - December 20, 2009
agrd.
This is all Nico’s fault.
Leopold Bloom - December 20, 2009
Is it January already?
Nico - December 20, 2009
(no ,but wait til you see what I got you for Christmas!)
Leopold Bloom - December 21, 2009
If it's a severed head, I'm going to be very disappointed.
mikev - December 21, 2009
Yeah, get me something I don't already have.
Nico - December 21, 2009
TWO severed heads.
mikev - December 21, 2009
A gun rack?
I don’t even own a gun, let alone many guns that would necessitate an entire rack.
rrryanc - December 21, 2009
see mikev.
he can help you.
LoneStranger - December 21, 2009
To answer your question
In limited duty (25 GS) Headley played average defense at 3B last year. His career line of 263/340/400 is handicapped by a career 218/305/355 line out of Petco. He’s got less than 2 years service time, although he’s got a decent chance of ending up Super 2 eligible.
It would cost the A’s to land him. And with a change in the FO and a total rebuild going on it’s hard to say what the Padres will want in return. However, my next two days at work look horrifyingly boring so I’ll have to think on it!
grover - December 20, 2009
OT - RIP, Luanne Platter.
:-(
Nico - December 20, 2009
I just read that
Brittany Murphy dead at 32.
sirbed - December 20, 2009
Wow!
WaddellCanseco - December 20, 2009
That was sad
And we’ll probably be reading a lot about in the days to come.
worldblee - December 20, 2009
she looked pretty skinny - I wonder if she had an eating thing.
ak_A - December 21, 2009
you mean not eating thing?
Future Ed - December 21, 2009
ODed
for sure
cuppingmaster - December 21, 2009
Most likely, IMO, is she combined upper with downer
That can cause cardiac arrest because in trying to speed up and slow down at the same time, the heart’s rhythm can be sufficiently disrupted.
We know already that she was taking a prescription pain-killer (sedative) — if she took a stimulant she could easily have accidentally caused her heart to go into cardiac arrest.
Nico - December 21, 2009
(induces vomiting and note to self- when finished, flush rx'es)
ak_A - December 21, 2009
I've never heard of either of these.
I gather than one is a character played by the other?
iglew - December 21, 2009
Luanne Platter was a character on "King of the Hill"
voiced by Brittany Murphy, who also starred in Clueless and other fine flicks.
Nico - December 21, 2009
can't say BB isn't making this winter innaresting thusfar
I would keep Raj, our most coachable player with conceivably the highest multi-skill ceiling, and deal Hairston, maybe Ziggy and Cunningham and try for Maicer Izturis or Headley or some serviceable (no, Nico, not in THAT way) infielder person.
emperor nobody - December 20, 2009
So let's save Beane and SD the trouble and get the Headley deal worked out
Who goes to the Padres?
Nico - December 20, 2009
Their choice of Buck/Cunningham/Hairston plus their choice of Demel/Souza/Marks/Donaldson
WaddellCanseco - December 20, 2009
Kinda think you can cross Hairston off SD's list... don't you?
grover - December 20, 2009
Probably, but no harm in giving them the option
WaddellCanseco - December 20, 2009
maybe the A's can get Sean Gallagher for Hairston
sirbed - December 20, 2009
The sad thing is, I'd totally do that trade at this point
The A’s have backed themselves into such an unnecessary corner that getting any value at all out of Hairston, Cunningham, or Buck would be a happy day.
PaulThomas - December 20, 2009
If the A's sell low on Cunningham
I will not be happy. Seriously. Beyond shortsighted move right there.
Blicks - December 21, 2009
me too.
There’s no need to be hasty with Cunningham. Let him tear up s/t and AAA for a couple of months, and then bring him up and play him every day in May or June. If he doesn’t start hot, then don’t bring him up.
Total
noright brainer.Gaijin_Suketto - December 21, 2009
If I were the Padres I'd ask for Taylor for Headley
It’s probably not unreasonable either.
WaddellCanseco - December 20, 2009
Be careful trading with the Padres...
Obi Wan may yet have tricks young Luke does not know.
Gaijin_Suketto - December 21, 2009
I have to say I find it funny that in a post about Rajai Davis
half the posts are about Jack Cust. You know we need the A’s to bring Jack back not just because he’s the only power hitter they have but because I’m convinced AN would cease to exist without Cust on the team.
sirbed - December 20, 2009
in some ways, Crisp has basically replaced Cust
And Crisp, to me and others here, is no better than Davis and more expensive. Hence, why we talk about him now.
cuppingmaster - December 20, 2009
Oh I agree with you I don't like Crisp compared to Davis or Cust
I just thought it was funny that at the end of the day we always end up talking about Jack.
sirbed - December 20, 2009
honestly
even tho my last name is Chase I prefer Izturis, who has been a vital part of a division winner for a few years…. coincidentally, our main rivals.
Like I said, I dunno that the LAAAAA deal with us direct, not sure this can be done outside a three team deal, but Headley or Kouzmanoff are my backup choices right now if I am BB.
As for what brings these players in potential deals, I am so not good at that part; if I were GM we’d have a goat playing third and a bottle of Smirnoff DH’ing, and we would have lost Cust to the Angels for Rex Hudler’s clip-on mic.
emperor nobody - December 20, 2009
epic, exquisite reply fail to Nico above
too many goats, not enough clarity for me on a Sunday.
emperor nobody - December 20, 2009
so can we call you emperor Chase now?
cuppingmaster - December 20, 2009
like the bank
but minus the $, I’m afraid.
emperor nobody - December 20, 2009
Are you David Chase?
If so what did the end of ’The Sopranos" mean?
sirbed - December 20, 2009
Weren't you emperor WaMu once?
Nico - December 20, 2009
I thought you played a fine first base for many years,
but you have the character of a boorish lout.
Gaijin_Suketto - December 21, 2009
No , no, no do not trade Davis!
Let us enjoy some favorite players at least a little before trading them away. Let us enjoy him for at least a few years before he is traded away for some guy hitting .290 in AA I’ve never heard of.
fansince1980 - December 20, 2009
Call up KC
Offering up Rajai for Callaspo and 1b/DH Kila
MagicMike23 - December 20, 2009
Looking at Callaspo's career stats, major and minor,
his BB/K ratios are pretty spectacular along with his consistently high batting average. He comes across, at a glance statistically, as a pretty legitimately fine hitter. And certainly nothing I saw when he hit against the A’s last year contradicted that.
Nico - December 20, 2009
Callaspo's good
Considering that KC is apparently going to kick Callaspo off 2B for Getz (!), they might be holding on to him because they value him more than Gordon and they’re planning to make him their starting 3B next year.
This would maybe explain why Callaspo-to-the-A’s talks never got off the ground floor (KC prob. wanted a lot in exchange for their favored guy) and why Gordon-to-A’s talks have had more legs (he’s the odd man out).
Spass30 - December 21, 2009
There are Gordon-to-A's talks?
Where?
CaliforniaJag - December 21, 2009
None that I've heard.
Nico - December 21, 2009
Has there ever been a solid rumor re: Gordon -> A's?
I’ve read the Callaspo one but the only time I’ve heard of Gordon is AN rosterbation.
vignette17 - December 22, 2009
MLBTR COMMENT SECTION
mikev - December 22, 2009
double negative?
MLBTR = unreliable
comment section = unreliable
so MLBTR x comment section = reliable?
iglew - December 22, 2009
Yes, but then you have to divide that by zero.
Nico - December 22, 2009
oh, I know.
But that’s the only place I’ve ever heard it, and the idea was Sweeney for Gordon.
mikev - December 22, 2009
You want Kila and Kala?
Wouldn’t that be confusing?
WaddellCanseco - December 21, 2009
Holy Jesus
There’s a 232 comment thread in addition to the 600+ one about signing Coco Crisp?
Wild.
(My take: Confusing move, but really pretty inconsequential. They’re gonna be mediocre either way. And, hey, Crisp’s sort of a cool guy to have around. So whatever.)
walk off bunt - December 20, 2009
So I did some quick-and-dirty calculating on the other thread
Early returns: The transition from Cust to Crisp cost the A’s about a million dollars while making the team about 2 wins WORSE for next season.
I’m starting to wonder who kidnapped Beane and replaced him with a body double cloned from Brian Sabean.
PaulThomas - December 21, 2009
What if Beane...
Made this move to get a CF he has liked for years, now allowing him to trade another OF for some legit 3b/SS help. So this buys some time for taylor, possibly opens up an extra spot for buck, cunningham, etc when hairston, rajai is traded away. They have 4 solid CF types and a good amount of teams are just looking for one of them. Lineup the offers and choose the best one. Also padre were willing to go as high as $4 million, so its not a big difference in price.
MagicMike23 - December 21, 2009
Yeah....
He’s now got some very tradeable players.
Of course, he has to trade them at some point, otherwise…..
richwol1 - December 21, 2009
Is trading in this league
really like a convoluted game of chess?
hishnik - December 21, 2009
I think there are some parallels, yes.
You have to think a few moves ahead, and Beane is usually pretty good about it.
LoneStranger - December 21, 2009
Hey now
We didn’t sign Dye and Pedro Martinez…
CaliforniaJag - December 21, 2009
IF Crisp stays healthy, he's a 3 WAR player
Like he has been in Boston and Cleveland
That’s 1,5 mln per WAR, simply a good deal
His BABIP was unusually low last year, but walk rates have gone up.
Again, if he remains healthy he could be in for a surprisingly good season.
OPS2000 - December 21, 2009
He's not a 1.5M per WAR player if he, or someone else that he displaces, is DHing
PaulThomas - December 21, 2009
Something to keep in mind
is that Crisp is overrated in the public eye, and possibly in the eyes of inferior GM’s. He’s gotten a lot of press and been in some postseason games. I hope I’m not wrong, but I would think that Oakland’ park effects wouldn’t hurt Crisp too much, because he’s not a home run hitter. Hopefully he doesn’t hit too many weak pop fouls. I could see a healthy Crisp putting up some saleable numbers in the first half, and then Billy spinning him off to some sap contender for a healthy package in return.
This is a classic poker move of calling a bet that has improper pot odds now, but the implied odds (potential to profit) if we draw out to a winner (Crisp having a decent, healthy first half) are so large that Mr. Beane has to call.
Plus, in the odd event that other teams’ hands go to shit (LA regression, Texas ownership drama, injuries or Bradley-itis in Seattle), there is also the opportunity to hold on to Crisp for the rest of the year if he and the A’s are having a good season.
Obviously, the risk not just 5 million dollars, but also in lost playing opportunities for potentially superior players. Yet, the payoff of trading an overvalued Crisp to a needy contender has the potential to be great.
Only time will tell if Mr. Beane and the club will profit in this scenario, but I’m not mad at him for trying.
Gaijin_Suketto - December 21, 2009
so... overrated players are the new market inefficiency?
moneyball has truly come full circle.
xbhaskarx - December 21, 2009
I don't claim to believe that the free agent market truly works "rationally" in an economic sense,
but I find the notion that a player can be simultaneously overrated and underpaid a difficult one to credit. It’s like Arthur Dent having both tea and no tea simultaneously.
I think a better argument is that Beane is gambling on the risk of under/nonperformance due to injury in return for a potential payout if Crisp is completely healthy. Which is reasonable enough, I guess. I just don’t see why the gamble is being made with a center fielder instead of… well, of just about any other position. It’s not like there aren’t plenty of risky upside plays at SP, for instance.
PaulThomas - December 21, 2009
Overrated AND underpaid?! Tea AND no tea?!?!?
mikev - December 21, 2009
nice graphic...
As for Crisp, he’s not worth big money to a rich team on the East Coast at this moment due to questions about his health. A few months from now, if he’s playing well, 5m might seem like a bargain to those rich teams.
So, he’s not simultaneously overvalued and underpaid. He’s presently overpaid, but can easily change that perception as early as April with good healthy play. I think he’s a reasonable gamble with a profitable upside.
Emotionally, I hate the move, because I BELIEVE IN RAJAI DAVIS and think he’s gonna have an awesome year next year. I have nothing statistically to back me up, and nothing intellectually, other than some interviews from last season, but I have a strong feeling, and as a gambler, I like to play my hunches for a reasonable price.
Gaijin_Suketto - December 21, 2009
See, I don't, I think Davis was a total flash in the pan.
I’d love to be wrong about it though.
mikev - December 21, 2009
agreed...
not sure what the difference is between good and flash in the pan…but i believe that nico’s slash line for rajai of 275/330/390 is reasonable for someone who can steal bases and play above average defense. and he’s cheap.
stm72 - December 21, 2009
oops...just reacquainted myself with rajai's history...
um…275/330/390 would be huge for him…
maybe a better line is 240/300/360
that changes the calculus a touch
stm72 - December 21, 2009
Rajai's career major league line is
.280/.336/.387.
Why is .240/.300/.360 the best projection for him?
Nico - December 21, 2009
Because guys usually don't replicate their minor league numbers when they hit the big leagues?
mikev - December 21, 2009
Those are Rajai's career MAJOR LEAGUE stats
Nico - December 21, 2009
Oops.
That’ll show me to read while on vicodin.
mikev - December 21, 2009
I'm actually kind of surprised that those
who prefer to lean on stats, such as you and PT, are so bearish on Rajai for 2010. I think you’re being overly swayed by 2008.
Rajai was terrible in 2008, no question. He got off to a lousy start with the Giants and was cut loose after just 19 plate appearances, joined Oakland and did not hit well as a part time player (.288 OBP).
But in 2007, his first major league season (other than 16 plate appearances in ’06), he put up a combined line (with Pittsburgh and SF) of .279/.361/.370. I would take that any day of the week from a good defensive CFer who can steal 40-50 bases.
He was even better in 2009, when he got everyday playing time for the very first time in his career.
Davis has, essentially, had two very good seasons hitting and one very bad one. And when played everyday, he’s 1/1.
Why isn’t it just as likely he’ll have a good season than a bad one? Regression and all.
Nico - December 21, 2009
Mostly I just don't like the guy.
BAM, HOW’S THAT FOR A NON-STAT REASON. BOOYAH.
mikev - December 21, 2009
Hey, at least it's fair
I have no good rebuttal to that. I’m curious as to why you don’t like him, though — the guy ignited a lifeless team and made it watchable for 1/2 a season. Fluke or not, I’d think he’d have made friends for that performance.
Nico - December 21, 2009
I think the fluke part is the biggest thing.
I just don’t think he’s that good, and I think he prevented the team from seeing what they’ve got in guys like Cunningham and/or Buck last season.
The likeliness of Rajai Davis being a part of the next good A’s team is probably less than Cunningham or Buck doing so.
Kind of the same reason people aren’t too upset about Cust being nontendered, I suppose.
mikev - December 21, 2009
I'm overly swayed by what I see when I watch him
which is a powerless hitter who lacks a strong line-drive stroke, pulls the ball way too often for a player without any power, and got inordinately lucky on bloop hits in 2009.
Oh, and he also has poor plate discipline and mediocre contact ability.
What exactly am I supposed to be excited about here?
Believe me, I’m fully aware of the irony of me advocating “watching a player over resorting to stats”, but this is really just a bootstrap way of saying that I think that his peripheral stats better reflect who the real Rajai Davis is, and those peripheral stats do not even remotely support the hitting line he put up in 2009. They say he’s basically the same mediocre hitter he’s been for his entire professional career.
No doubt major league production (wOBA and the like) is the most important single statistical feature, but when it’s a glaring aberration from what is otherwise a fairly consistent picture painted by the player’s tools, his minor league statline, his projections, and his peripherals, I’m going with the weight of the evidence.
CHONE projects a line of .267/.326/.372, which strikes me as about right.
PaulThomas - December 21, 2009
CHONE's projection is almost identical to the one I suggested
We’re talking pretty much the same idea for BA (decent but not great) and about .004 points of OBP.
I wonder if Rajai’s plate discipline is deceiving. His OBPs in 2007 and 2009 were both good. His BB/K ratio in 2007 was 21/28, which is pretty impressive for a rookie season.
I also don’t think he tried to pull everything as much as it may have looked to you. I thought a major breakthrough in 2009 was his willingness to use the right side hole and the right field line on pitches away.
I don’t think he’s a great hitter, but given his speed a relative high BABIP is a reasonable projection and he doesn’t strike out that much.
If he can hit in the neighborhood of .267-.280, which is the range of CHONE’s projection and Davis’ own career average, walk enough to add 50-60 OBP points to his BA, steal 40-50 bases, and play a very good CF, he’s far from someone the A’s should “sell high” on — he’s someone they should “enjoy cheap.”
Nico - December 21, 2009
Also, here's what I'm wondering, stat-wise
Rajai has put up an OBP of .360 or better in 2 of his 3 seasons. How are those “mediocre stats”? (Granted, 2008 sucked donkey testes.)
I’d characterize his career line as “average,” but given his base-stealing ability and speed, an average line for a player like Rajai begets an above average offensive player.
Nico - December 21, 2009
begets
mojo.
oaklidiot - December 21, 2009
It's also missing about 20 points of slugging percentage
It’s not “average,” is the point. Full season, you’re looking at a player who is 10-12 runs below average, and possibly even a run or two worse because you can’t platoon him if he’s playing every day.
If his defense is good, you’re looking at basically an average player overall. If his defense is great, maybe a bit above average. If it’s overrated, he’s something of a liability.
If there is a team out there that thinks that he’s an above-average option— or, hell, even one that thinks he’s an average option, now that the A’s have backed themselves into a corner by acquiring 16 zillion outfielders— the A’s would be well served to unload him while he is valued as such and before he goes back to being valued as an anemic glove man/pinch runner type. At that point he goes back to being the kind of player who goes through 20 teams on waivers before reaching anyone who bothers to claim him. Most teams don’t value defense correctly, and unfortunately one of the prime ones that does is both a division rival and the possessor of by far the best defensive outfielder in the game of baseball.
This offseason is, in all likelihood, the last chance the A’s will ever have to actually trade him for significant value. I’d much rather do that than watch him gradually get passed by and relegated to worthlessness by better players from the A’s farm system and ultimately get nontendered after 2011.
PaulThomas - December 21, 2009
Well, my disagreement is well chronicled
in the very post that spawns all these comments. I say keep Rajai and play him in CF and don’t sign Crisp. Use the money saved on Crisp to sign a power hitter like, I don’t know, say, Jack Cust?
Nico - December 21, 2009
By the way, Raj's career slugging pct is .387
Seems like a reasonable projection would be to use his career SLG as a “best guess.”
Nico - December 21, 2009
If you, like me, think that Rajai has been substantially luckier than average over his "career,"
which really spans only a little over a season’s worth of plate appearances, then using career numbers doesn’t follow.
As for Crisp, well, it’s kinda crying over spilt milk at this point, innit? Might as well make the best of the situation.
PaulThomas - December 21, 2009
If the milk is spilt,
that explains why the coco is still crisp.
Nico - December 22, 2009
here's what i saw wit my own two eyeses at real gameses
that rajai has developed more of a tendency to go the other way in the second half, hit gaps more frequently, and pull the ball less. seen him advance and drive in runners accordingly. just luck? maybe. situational hitting skills coming of age? maybe that too. glass half empty, glass half full. i hope we get to see him play for a full season, a very interesting sub-story to the unfolding opera.
oaklidiot - December 21, 2009
Which is why I'm way scared for Pennington
Davis is probably second on my list for guys that could totally suck and yet still get a lot of PT on the 2010 A’s.
vignette17 - December 22, 2009
+1 arthur dent
Future Ed - December 21, 2009
Arthur was a dumbass.
If he’d’a been perceptive at all, he’d’a noticed his friend Ford was an alien years before the drama with the council.
Gaijin_Suketto - December 21, 2009
New Slusser article
Contract worth about $4.5 million w/ team option.
Davis might have to shift to a corner-outfield spot.
Scott Hairston either potential trade bait or primarily a fourth outfielder and DH.
Beane has tried to get Crisp at least twice before.
Initial discussions with the agents for Adrian Beltre and Troy Glaus. Miguel Tejada remains a longshot at best.
Oakland also is pursuing several international free agents, including left-handed pitcher Aroldis Chapman.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/blogs/athletics/detail?entry_id=53877>a=commentslistpos#commentslistpos
MagicMike23 - December 21, 2009
I get all of these other than Troy Glaus
Unless he proves he can throw the ball from 3B to 1B
WaddellCanseco - December 21, 2009
Well, presumably that wouldn't be too hard for him to do, if he can, in fact, do it
PaulThomas - December 21, 2009
fyi SuSlu did not write this,
Vlae Kershner did. he hangs around here occasionally.
oakinboston - December 21, 2009
I did write a story with that information
but it looks like the link above goes to the Drumbeat blog, which Vlae updated yesterday. Here’s the link to the actual story: http://tiny.cc/t2WJE
slusser - December 21, 2009
thanks for the correction!
and I will make one more:
“they both hang around here occasionally”
oakinboston - December 21, 2009
yes, I hang around
partly to see if Nico can write even dumber puns than me.
vk - December 21, 2009
If at first you don't sluss-eed, Vlae Vlae again?
Nico - December 21, 2009
Wow, you've outdone yourself with that one.
iglew - December 21, 2009
Thanks. Or screw you.
I’m not quite sure which.
Nico - December 21, 2009
Ha!
Read more: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2009/12/20/SPLL1B76K3.DTL#ixzz0aM8ZWGu0
micdog2001 - December 21, 2009
This would be even funnier if his name was Charcoal Crisp
PaulThomas - December 21, 2009
Please yes to Chapman
Blicks - December 21, 2009
+ 1 on chapman
oaklidiot - December 21, 2009
Are they really going after Chapman?
That would be awesome for our 2011 and beyond plans. Glaus makes sense more than any other slugger remaining on market. Beltre will be probably too expensive for my taste. Is a great glove guy who is 30 years old and has been very inconsistent (in a lack of other word) with the bat really worth $10MM per year over a prolonged period of time?
Manstein - December 21, 2009
Spend the Beltre money 3/26mil+ on Chapman...
Leave Beltre…Roids
ryanmoser - December 21, 2009
roids? really?
is it 2004 again? He has been a valuable player with seattle. He will continue to be 50 HRs or no.
Future Ed - December 21, 2009
But players tend to decline defensively in their 30s
And with so much of his value tied to his glove, he could end up as a gruesome sunk cost, someone you end up trying to trade for Carlos Silva.
Manstein - December 21, 2009
this is the second time in his career that Mike Lowell has sucked
and was a salary dump.
If it happens to Beltre, it will be the first time.
Future Ed - December 21, 2009
a lively hot toast season.
ak_A - December 21, 2009
Coco+Raj are playing every day.
Scott Hairston career OPS splits:
702 vs RHP
867 vs LHP
Ryan Sweeney career OPS splits:
758 vs RHP
625 vs LHP
Kind of obvious what’s going to go on here:
Crisp-Davis-Sweeney vs RHP
Hairston-Davis-Crisp vs LHP
PL78 - December 21, 2009
Isn't Sweeney a bit young at 25 (almost)
To be written-off as a platoon player? Especially since he showed some signs of life against left-handed pitching in 2009.
Manstein - December 21, 2009
someone's gotta go off the MLB roster in trades
We can’t have this platoon but also have Buck, Cunningham et al at Sacramento languishing.
cuppingmaster - December 21, 2009
I agree, he is too young, its strange that we overstacked the OF
and he’s the RHP option, so its not like he wont get 500 PAs.
PL78 - December 21, 2009
What's the great tragedy in being a platoon player?
WaddellCanseco - December 21, 2009
Less playing time
Less money to be made. And from team perspective, it’s stupid to give up on a idea of a more talented player further developing his skills just to find playing time for a useless piece of barely above replacement level trash you picked up for unexplainable reasons.
Manstein - December 21, 2009
Um, what?
PaulThomas - December 21, 2009
Unless they have a contract with specific incentive clauses,
MLB players are paid the same amount of money whether they get playing time or not. All that matters for their paycheck is that they’re on the roster.
If that were not the case, there would be a pretty easy answer to contracts gone bad, like Eric Chavez’s.
iglew - December 22, 2009
Less money to be made
When they become free agents. And isn’t insurance paying for Chavez’s contract while he’s on a DL? I mean, there must be some kind of insurance on a $66MM deal?
Manstein - December 22, 2009
Insurance
I assume that there’s a policy, but we don’t actually know, and we probably never will.
iglew - December 22, 2009
I don't care about signing Crisp.
But I do oppose getting rid of Rajai. Only because he’s fun. The team’s probably going to suck anyway, but I’d rather watch a sucky with players who are fun. Rajai is fun.
iglew - December 21, 2009
Um, I mean a "sucky team"
This accidental omission was a result of attempting to edit the sentence to make it sound less like a double entendre than my original wording. Fail.
iglew - December 21, 2009
Only to add a new one it seems.
Fail :)
DMOAS - December 21, 2009
Yeah that totally doesn't help
And making people aware of the double entendre just makes it worse.
PaulThomas - December 21, 2009
I just snorted my coffee laughing
OaklandSi - December 21, 2009 via mobile
agreed
I made that point last year before he had a great 2nd half.
micdog2001 - December 21, 2009
well, to be fair
I did make that point in the offseason but after searching my comments I found a few times where I complained about Rajai during the 1st half.
micdog2001 - December 21, 2009
I no like watching a sucky
No love you long time
CaliforniaJag - December 21, 2009
I don't get why the team would play Crisp in center and Rajai in a corner.
It seems that from first glance of UZR numbers Rajai is a better centerfielder than Crisp, is more durable and his bat plays better at the position.
Crisp appears to be a better defensive LFer than CFer and although he’s not a power threat by any means, he sports a career SLG north of .400 and has at least shown the ability to hit 16 homers in a season. Plus, he’s not exactly a super-durable specimen, so maybe playing him in left where he won’t be doing as much diving and ranging to the gaps will be best for his body.
Seems to me that the best alignment would be Crisp-Rajai-Sweeney, which would give the team 3 potential 10+ UZR defenders in the outfield, which would be pretty spectacular. All three could also come close to being league-average hitters for their position.
Taj Adib - December 21, 2009
I'm not necessarily sure that Crisp would bump Davis to LF
Although that certainly is a possibility.
grover - December 21, 2009
This whole sequence of moves is illogical
What’s one more illogicality on top of it?
PaulThomas - December 21, 2009
but crisp makes more money
xbhaskarx - December 21, 2009
and he played for the Red Sox and was ESPN all the time
bobnothing - December 21, 2009
dude, this is a real issue that the A's can profit off of
see my extensive comment about an inch up your scroller.
Gaijin_Suketto - December 21, 2009
Scroller? Is that you kids are calling it nowadays?
WaddellCanseco - December 21, 2009
Maybe Billy Beane is just trying to showcase his talent for Al Davis?
Beane and Davis may be up to something here.
Davis may also be giving Lew pointers about the; "vertical passing game" and Beane interprets this message as "OF defense and speed" ????
Forget BA.,OPS, and HR’s…
Just win baby!!!!!!!!!!!!!
In
DavisBilly we trustMMunoz33 - December 21, 2009
so who is the DH right now, hairston or fox?
they better re-sign cust if that’s the case.
xbhaskarx - December 21, 2009
With the other at 3B!
WaddellCanseco - December 21, 2009
seemingly addicted to flashy trades (the controversy, the drama),
i’m starting to fear that beane has a gambling problem. if his wandering eye starts to target rajai as trade fodder, that would be foolish; rajai is currently the poster child of the a’s rebuild, and was an inspiration to watch during last season’s second half. i’m perplexed at how little confidence most posters on AN seem to have in him (references to a 3-month fluke, etc.). when a young player electrifies and carries an mlb team for almost half a season, i call that positive growth, and if it is an aberration, what better way to find out than keep him and his tiny salary for a full year and see how it plays out? that’s how rebuilding goes— it requires patience. since he ended up batting .305 on the season, does anyone know his BA for the second half?
oaklidiot - December 21, 2009
He hit
.325/.372/.451 (.823 OPS) after the All-Star Break.
Nico - December 21, 2009
I like Rajai Davis in the same way I like Mike Singletary.
They are both natural healer/gurus whom in more useful times, would be wandering the woods, dispensing wisdom to the villagers they meet along the path of the true light.
Except, in these less useful times, they are sports figures.
One of them used to hit people a lot and will drop trou just to shock people. My kinda guy all the way.
The other one is about to have a breakout season and show the world that he can play with the best of them. He will play like a magical weapon, delivering unexpected positive result after unexpected positive result, until the converted naysayers start expecting great results. He will then funnel those energies through himself as a magical weapon and take his game up to an even higher level.
I wouldn’t even bother spewing this gibberish about any but a handful of people who have ever played the game, but seriously, RAJAI DAVIS IS ON A MISSION FROM GOD (just like The Blues Brothers). He would tell you himself, but it would make him look like an ass in the public eye, and that would not be acceptable to him, or to the public.
Enough gibberish… Back to nuts and bolts…
It would be weak poker to perceive Davis’ 2009 season as being a freak event, and an opportunity to sell a deuce of clubs at a five of clubs price. Screw this nickel and dime garbage. Rajai Davis is two connected clubs in the hole, with a straight and flush draw on the board. The implied odds are too tremendously favorable to even chance trading Davis this offseason. If he turns back into a pumpkin next year, so be it. The rest of the baseball kingdom doesn’t see him as much more than a pumpkin anyway. No great loss. But he’s a pumpkin with the potential to be a scary monster, and that potential is not in the future; that potential is now!
Gaijin_Suketto - December 21, 2009
plus the steals!
9Custs - December 21, 2009
huh, why is that? why not someone like brett anderson instead? you do know rajai will be 29 this year, right? he probably won’t even be a part of any potential a’s dynasty…
xbhaskarx - December 21, 2009
ding ding ding
WINNAR. CONGRATULATIONS SIR PLEASE STEP FORWARD TO COLLECT YOUR REWARD
mikev - December 21, 2009
okay for sure anderson, bailey, weurtz, yes-- i was thinking of our *offense*
which seemed the more visible diff to me. also, his performance (from what i remember) stood out as the most markedly improved from the first half. even more evident in that when the hi-profile veteran bats failed and left (giambi, holliday), suddenly the young guys started raking and scoring runs with a vengeance, putting up crooked numbers on several occasions. it was like the parents left town and the party started. it looked like a different team to me (and the 6k or so fans attending the near-empty coli after the break).
oaklidiot - December 21, 2009
Well, Cust is the best hitter on the team
why not him?
Future Ed - December 21, 2009
Because he's about to sign with the Royals?
WaddellCanseco - December 21, 2009
because cust represents the exact opposite
a high-strikeout, slow running, hit for the fences kind of guy. he also represents the (religiously overly-emphasized in oakland of late) theory of taking walks vs putting the ball in play etc.— he’s not small ball at all. it’s hard to ignite a team with all those walks back to the dugout.
oaklidiot - December 21, 2009
Why do people say these things....
lenscrafters - December 21, 2009
I'm gonna let it hang.
I mean, I assume oaklidiot read this entire thead (ad this site over the past 3 years) and saw the comments showing how that is wrong, but chooses to ignore facts.
Future Ed - December 21, 2009
woops, stepped into a rathole-- yeah i do understand cust's value, and
it’s not my intent to dis that, since all the positive stat-supported AN comments for cust do have their merit for sure (as do home runs). for me it’s just that (since futureed asked me) rajai’s hustle represents change to me, and cust’s right now, well, not so much. the truth is, both approaches (and skill sets) have their place, and i’d love to see the reborn a’s offense become more balanced, using aggressive small-ball play plus taking walks when you can plus hitting home runs. maybe too much to ask santa for.
oaklidiot - December 21, 2009
I think at this point, "balance" would require adding someone who can HR!
Nico - December 21, 2009
fo sho that would be nice, but i'm not that concerned about it this year
since we’re rebuilding— we cant have it all right now. i’d rather develop line drive hitters who steal bases with occasional pop than buy one veteran 25 HR guy to be honest. of course in a few years or less, we’ll have taylor (five tool) hitting the HRs, plus carter. that’s when santa will really love us.
oaklidiot - December 21, 2009
rajai davis and adam kennedy are "the young guys"?
xbhaskarx - December 21, 2009
oh i see what you mean, yeah, at 29 he's not so young
and what, 6 (?) yrs older than anderson et al. but it’s also hard to think of him as a veteran (like kennedy, who is only 4 yrs his senior). i’ll just say this— to me, rajai was the spark in the second half that seemed to ignite the young bats; he had the mojo workin, so billy why stomp it out.
oaklidiot - December 21, 2009
Billy beane and Blez
cut a deal to get more AN page hits through december.
Future Ed - December 21, 2009
I love how Slusser unintentionally (facetiously?)
Mentions power and Beltre in the same sentence. I’m not sure if we’ll hit 75 HRs next year, let alone 100 or greater
cuppingmaster - December 21, 2009
KEEP RAJAI DAVIS!!
He was one of the most exciting parts of the A’s this past season. I will be very upset if he is traded.
Your mother does know best on this one, Nico!!
A's Fan in Virginia - December 21, 2009
yes!
9Custs - December 21, 2009
is anyone else having a hard time concentrating at work today?
christmas vacation coming up, not much sleep, rainy weather…
OakA'sHoney - December 21, 2009
if i was at work
I would agree :-D
cuppingmaster - December 21, 2009
lucky you!
OakA'sHoney - December 21, 2009
Adderall FTW
TBRMKane - December 21, 2009
Work was cancelled today because of the two feet of snow we received on Saturday in the Northern Virginia area. Things came to a halt very quickly!! I am dreaming of spring training….
A's Fan in Virginia - December 21, 2009
me too...
OakA'sHoney - December 21, 2009
Nope
I’m keeping up with AN just fine.
grover - December 21, 2009
I like your job. I wish I could get paid for posting on AN.
Wait I do.
WaddellCanseco - December 21, 2009
So do I
grover - December 21, 2009
YES
micdog2001 - December 21, 2009
yes.. I've spent all morning trying to write a cover letter for a job
it kinda reads at the moment ‘uh, yeah, i’m sorta great. but not that good. can i have this job?’
Needs more work.
bobnothing - December 21, 2009
sing your praises, make yourself irresistible so they have to hire you
OakA'sHoney - December 21, 2009
Don't forget to mention
your Montgomery Burns award for Outstanding Achievement In The Field Of Excellence!
Gaijin_Suketto - December 21, 2009
I wonder if you put that in "achievements"
Whether that’d make you memorable enough to get an interview (assuming the position is getting dozens of applications).
Daniel777 - December 21, 2009
I put on "Time Magazine Person of the year 2006"
Future Ed - December 21, 2009
I knew a guy who always ended his bio with
“He is buried in Westminster Abbey.”
iglew - December 21, 2009
And don't be afraid to flash some leg.
Hey, a girl’s gotta do what she’s gotta do, right?
iglew - December 21, 2009
vacation
so no.
Future Ed - December 21, 2009
So last offseason BB tried signing Free Agents to improve the offense
in hopes that it would take pressure off the young pitchers. Obviously that failed, so this offseason he is trying to sign FA to improve the defense to take pressure off the young pitchers?
Hopefully Crisp can catch up to flyballs in the outfield better than Giambi was at catching up to fastballs at the plate.
micdog2001 - December 21, 2009
According to my (probably wong) math,
last year with a BABIP of .330, Rajai would have hit .274/.314/.392.
travdog6 - December 21, 2009
His OBP was 55 points higher than his BA (.305/.360)
Would that change with a change in BABIP? You have his OBP at only 40 points higher, whereas a line of .274/.329/.392 looks a lot better — and is about what I hope for and expect from Rajai in 2010.
Nico - December 21, 2009
Ah I forgot HBP.
Ya something more like .330. Good call.
travdog6 - December 21, 2009
"Stick that f'ing thing out there!"
I think .274/.330/.392 is a totally reasonable projection for Rajai Davis in 2010, and if that comes with 40 SB and very good CF defense, I want him starting for Oakland.
Nico - December 21, 2009
Yup, looks like a damn good player to me.
travdog6 - December 21, 2009
And he doesn't cost you $4.5M.
Nico - December 21, 2009
plus, there is a chance that he won't regress too.
There is a chance he will improve.
Evaluating Mr. Davis assuming it is 100% a given that he will regress is overly pessimistic.
Gaijin_Suketto - December 21, 2009
Decreased batting average with the same number of walks would actually cause the apparent spread to widen slightly
which is why using a player’s actual walk percentage is somewhat more accurate than just subtracting BA from OBP.
PaulThomas - December 21, 2009
Bon point.
Nico - December 21, 2009
Ya, I used his walk rate at 6.9.
I just forgot to count HBP the first time.
travdog6 - December 21, 2009
I'd be rather surprised if it was even that high
PaulThomas - December 21, 2009
new nickname for justin duchscherer
mlbtraderumors notes him as being nicknamed…the duke of hurl. oh man.
the article also says that he plans to sign with a new team within a week.
stm72 - December 21, 2009
"new"
so not texas then?
Future Ed - December 21, 2009
sorry, i assume it's new since i'd never heard it before.
stm72 - December 21, 2009
Nor Boston
WaddellCanseco - December 21, 2009
Is that was ESPN calls him
Former Red sox Duchscherer
Future Ed - December 21, 2009
Only until he goes back home like Curt Schilling
WaddellCanseco - December 21, 2009
When Crisp arrives at spring camp
someone ought to sneak into the club house and make sure the “use by date” on the box is not 06-01-09.
ak_A - December 21, 2009
What I want to know is,
which shoulder went snap and which went crackle, pop?
Nico - December 21, 2009
and why are we signing a guy who broke his shoulders and didn't hit 25 bombs last year?
9Custs - December 21, 2009
the 25 bomb guy does not go on the DL
Not a true Athletic.
Future Ed - December 21, 2009
Is the sound of a shredded Lebrum
Snap crackle pop? My seats are next to 3rd base, I will listen for Chavez this spring to demonstrate.
hishnik - December 23, 2009
What? Wait. No!
Make it stop! And here I’m still trying to get over the CarGon trade.
Keep Rajai, keep!
Sure, they’ll be some regression, but it’s not entirely unbelievable that ‘09 was the start of something the A’s need — a spark. Heed the words of ZiZou: Every team needs their spark.
Rajai = starting CF for ’10!
LeSaboteur - December 21, 2009
I think the main people are concerned about this isn’t just that we’re signing Coco Crisp, it’s that we’re likely paying him $4.5 to $5 mil this year. Compared to the players who have already signed, this seems like a LOT of money for a 1.2 WAR (last year) CF coming off a pair of shoulder surgeries. The only reasoning I can think of is that Beane is trying to set the free agent market for OF. The only OF that have signed so far are Mike Cameron, Jason Michaels, Andruw Jones, and Ryan Langerhans (and Jones barely played in the OF last year). Michaels, Jones, and Langerhans all got small dollars. Cameron, the only comparable to Crisp, got 2/$15.5 mil, but he was also way better than Crisp. If Beane signs Crisp to the rumored deal, it implies to the market that Cameron was signed at a bargain price, and that Crisp’s deal is the actual value of an OF of that caliber. That could possibly hurt other teams in their quest to sign free agent OF.
Yes, I AM reaching for straws…thanks for noticing! Could you hand them to me, please? Thanks!
All-in-all, I think there’s a chance that Beane is bidding against himself. He approached Crisp’s agent and asked what it’d take. “$5 mil? I don’t think I can do that much, but maybe a little less”. As opposed to what he should’ve said: “WHAT?? Ehh I’ll take my chances with Davis. Call me if you feel like a $2 mil deal.”
CaliforniaJag - December 21, 2009
The latter being how he approached O-Cabrera,
and got him.
Nico - December 21, 2009
Another thought
I actually do see the logic in doing this if:
1. Beane sees Crisp as greater than or equal to Davis, AND
2. Davis has trade value
In that case…let’s say Team A is in the market for a good D, decent OBP, good speed CF on the cheap. They’re sniffing around Crisp, thinking perhaps he’d be worth their while. Beane swoops in, grabs Crisp for a clear overpay, and says “I’ll trade you my cheaper version of the same player for [player X]”. In this scenario Beane basically pays cash for whatever pieces he gets for Davis.
If the guy on the way out is Hairston it’s slightly different because Hairston is a slightly different player, but if Davis is the guy he wants to move I could see this making sense.
CaliforniaJag - December 21, 2009
In this scenario,
Say Beane is able to get Kouzmanoff from the Padres, or Morel from the White Sox, or whatever…basically Beane is “buying” Kouz or Morel for $5 mil minus whatever Rajai makes. If the Padres would give Kouzmanoff for Rajai (maybe along with filler), that’s a comparable player to Beltre for half the price. Makes sense to me.
CaliforniaJag - December 21, 2009
And I’m relatively certain most people on here would rather pay $5 mil plus Kouz’s salary for Kouz and Crisp than $10 mil for Beltre and Rajai.
I’ll stop replying to myself now.
CaliforniaJag - December 21, 2009
it doesn't seem very wise to deal for a guy
to use as a trade chip for a specific team. He could have a handshake agreement with the Padres’ GM, but even then — we could just end up with a glut of outfielders that we end up having to get rid of for nothing.
cuppingmaster - December 21, 2009
Huh?
That’s not really what I said at all. Did you mean sign a guy instead of deal for a guy? I was talking about dealing Davis, not dealing Crisp. Still…we don’t HAVE to get rid of anyone; we can give all our OF/DHs plenty of days off to stay fresh all year without sacrificing defense to do it. The logic behind my idea was that a team that would’ve wanted Crisp for, say, $3 mil could instead have “Crisp” (Davis) for $500,000 or whatever in exchange for giving up either a prospect or a guy they almost considered non-tendering due to his salary (Kouzmanoff?). Just a thought, anyway. I’m sure it’ll make perfect sense by the time the season starts.
CaliforniaJag - December 22, 2009
Sign a guy, deal for a guy... same difference
But it would be good to give a small-ish group of guys very regular at-bats to see what they can really do. Right now, we are looking at a platoon with Hairston in the Sweeney/Davis/Crisp mix but why let Buck, Cunningham et al ride the Sacramento-Oakland express for another year? Moreover, there is argument that maybe Davis’ true ability only came out with regular playing time. 4 guys in the mix over 1500 PAs lets you see what any one of those guys can do better than 6 guys over the same PAs.
cuppingmaster - December 22, 2009
I thought I would disagree with your post
based on the title, but your thinking seems valid. If for no other reason than – he stepped up when asked; when needed and exceeded expectations – he should be rewarded with a chance to fill a full time spot. He will need to keep earning it but he deserves the starting chance.
bajablue - December 22, 2009
Don't really get this business about "earning" playing time, or not being traded, or whatever
This isn’t some Horatio Alger story. It’s a business with the goal of winning games. If the team will win more games by trading him, or platooning him, or whatever, it should do so.
There’s a reason why my sigline for a long time was “Your 2008 A’s: It’s nothing personal.” (Actually several reasons, since it was also kind of an entendre, but that was one of them.)
PaulThomas - December 22, 2009
I don't know what others mean by it,
but when I say “earn” playing time, I mean they do so by demonstrating skill at baseball which can lead one to reasonably conclude they’ll play better than the other options. So, for example, if Aaron Cunningham goes back to AAA and continues to embiggen his sample size putting up awesome numbers, and if meanwhile Hairston and Crisp both bat like Bobby Crosby, then we could say that Cunningham “earned” a call-up to take over as a starting outfielder.
This is not inconsistent with your goal of winning games.
Likewise, Rajai Davis “earned” his playing time in the second half last year by playing over his head and continuing to do so. I realize you think Rajai isn’t as good as his numbers, but that’s not the point. You may disagree with the assertion that Rajai really did earn his time, but that needn’t entail rejecting the very concept.
iglew - December 22, 2009
It's only been up for two days and 500 comments,
but I just saw the caption, Nico.
Very nice.
Leopold Bloom - December 22, 2009
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