It was 6-5 Red Sox, second and third, two out, Torii Hunter at the plate and Vlad Guerrero on deck. Terry Fancona's decision was to have Papelbon walk Hunter intentionally, load the bases and pitch to Vlad.
The IBB to load the bases is one of the most overused overmanaging tricks in baseball. It makes sense only when you desperately need the DP (not applicable with two outs) or occasionally when there is a very good hitter at the plate and a very bad one on deck. And here we're talking extremes, where for starters you should only consider the move if the current hitter's batting average exceeds the on deck hitter's on base percentage.
With two outs, it's basically never the right move to walk the bases loaded to pitch to Vlad. It wouldn't have been the right move to walk someone to pitch to Hunter. You don't ask your pitcher to load the bases so he can pitch to a good hitter. With the bases loaded, a walk is too damaging, as is a HBP -- plus the knowledge of this fact turns the pitcher into a poorer pitcher who no longer can so easily come inside, throw to the corners, or pitch from behind in the count.
Vlad singled home two runs to give the Angels the lead, and ultimately the win and the series. Sometimes it plays out as it should.
0 recs | 54 comments
I was surprised at Francona's decision
but am certainly pleased with the results.
OaklandSi - October 11, 2009
I'm reminded (not fondly) of
Geren having E-Gonzalez walk Chris Davis to load ’em up for Taylor Teagarden, and having Springer walk Branyan to load ’em up for Jose Lopez.
Nico - October 11, 2009
ugh...no thanks for reminding me...
what time is today’s next baseball game?
OaklandSi - October 11, 2009
Francona press conference on MLB network now
stormtown - October 11, 2009
I said it on the other thread, why throw Vlad anything down the middle?
you know he’ll swing at everything, why give him a strike?
stormtown - October 11, 2009
Precisely because the bases are loaded
That’s the problem. Vlad doesn’t walk much but it’s not like he never walks (he walked his previous AB). Papelbon became a fastball pitcher who had to throw fastballs in the strike zone to a great fastball hitter.
Nico - October 11, 2009
if you watched MLB Network you'd learn his real name is Vladdy
stormtown - October 11, 2009
Hudler works for them now?
Faust - October 11, 2009
Yes
In an ordinary situation, you pitch around Vlad, and certainly avoid a fastball down the middle.
But you can’t really do that with the bases loaded, in a tie game in the ninth. You can’t just assume he’s going to hack away at some lousy pitch in the dirt (that might get past the catcher anyway).
bear88 - October 11, 2009
The other problem with Vlad, though
is that even when bounce it or throw it over his head, he can still hit it hard.
Nick - October 11, 2009
Best.IBB.ever
That was the time Buck Showalter had Barry Bonds walked with the bases loaded with 2 outs in the 9th and the D-Backs leading by two. He got away with it.
doctorK - October 11, 2009
that one made sense
OaklandSi - October 11, 2009
And then Brent Mayne hit a hard line drive to RF for an out to end the inning.
1998, right?
Coach Cleats - October 11, 2009
That's right
It almost backfired on ol’ Buck.
doctorK - October 11, 2009
Managing is the ultimate part of the game best analyzed for "process," not "outcome," though.
The move to walk Hunter / Bonds was good or bad before the next batter stepped in.
Nico - October 11, 2009
although walking Bonds to pitch to Mayne makes sense
walking Hunter to pitch to Vlad, not so much
OaklandSi - October 11, 2009
IBBs make sense if the guy being walked's name is Bonds or Pujols.
Well, more sense, at least.
Blicks - October 11, 2009
I think Mauer might be in that category now, too
Nick - October 11, 2009
Yeah, him too.
Blicks - October 11, 2009
So two sweeps now with a chance for a third
I hope the twins do something about it
fruitattack - October 11, 2009 via mobile
agree
The odds are, two WC teams in the WS.
Happens waaay too often. Dislike this playoff system very much.
One won lost won - October 11, 2009
The Red Sox were the WC team
and they’re out. So it’s not going to happen this year.
The Rockies are the National League WC team.
bear88 - October 11, 2009
Rockies
I think they’re gonna get smoked today, but we’ll see.
cuppingmaster - October 11, 2009
yeah, plus i like to add insult to injury
likeiwouldtellyou - October 11, 2009
where have you bean?!
It’s bean way too contentious here lately. We need your strong voice of reason and calm.
Leopold Bloom - October 11, 2009
right you are...Twins have the worst W-L record
but they are not the wild card team….only the “least likely to succeed”.
I got carried away.
If not the “wild card”, then the team with a verrrry close to .500 record. Teams like the 2006 St. Louis Cardinals, 83-78.
Say, why does Baseball Reference think “Saint Louis” comes alphabetically after San Diego and San Francisco? Is “St” a word?
One won lost won - October 11, 2009
me too
OaklandSi - October 11, 2009
Scioscia made some blunders too
Like not using a lefty against Ortiz which led to Sox scoring insurance run and pinch-hitting for Mike Napoli with… Gary Matthews Jr. But what Francona did was definitely worse. I guess he was thinking along the ‘Hunter is clutch, Vlad is a choker’ lines.
Manstein - October 11, 2009
No Vlad has a lot more holes in his swing.
The A’s pitchers did pretty well with Vlad this year. I believe he is showing his age. In 2009, Vlad “got himself out” more often than Torii Hunter. Hunter is hot here in the playoffs, Vlad is not.
Having a force at any base is also a plus.
I just don’t find it as such a “bonehead” strategy as Nico made it out to be.
One thing I don’t accept is the idea that a team “lives…or dies…” by the closer. A single and a walk??? He’s lost it. Next pitcher please. Why keep Papelbon in after that? IMO, he’s already FAILed to close.
One won lost won - October 11, 2009
Vlad can still make hard contact on every fastball thrown from head to toe
And your closer throws nothing but fastballs. That’s not a guy you elect to face with bases loaded.
Manstein - October 11, 2009
good point, in that the ball Vlad hit was not a strike (from my POV)
But, as I said, the A’s have been challenging him all season with fastballs, he hasn’t hit one fastball for a basehit during the ALDS, so….
One won lost won - October 11, 2009
Counter-arguments
1) Hunter did have a better on-base percentage than Vlad this year, .366 to .334. But Papelbon would have been facing Hunter with first base open, leaving him the option to walk him. He had no such option with Vlad.
2) Papelbon is a fastball pitcher, and that’s pretty much it. I’m sorry. I don’t want to throw Vlad fastballs when he knows they’re coming, because the bases are loaded.
3) Vlad can’t run. Having a force at any base is irrelvant..
4) I think it’s a mistake to put your pitcher at a disadvantage just to avoid Torii Hunter. He’s not that damned good. Vlad isn’t the dominant force he used to be, but he’s still Vlad.
bear88 - October 11, 2009
Vlad's OBP during the playoffs???
Boston had done very well to get him out.
Papelbon just didn’t have it. Francona should have recognized that after the 8th.
Still, I’m very very VERY happy the Red Sox were eliminated. All the crap about “down 0-3 to the Yankees, last strike in game 4..” can NOW go away far away.
One won lost won - October 11, 2009
the decision to throw to Vlad and not Hunter was sound
but the decision to throw him a meatball, even with the bases loaded, was dumb. He could have thrown something off-speed and maybe got him to rollover. I know that’s a strange thing to say, but you have to have confidence that your catcher can block something in the dirt.
cuppingmaster - October 11, 2009
it was low, and perhaps out of the strike zone
Papelbon should have been taken out. Two batters prior, if not after the 8th.
Teams never take out the failing “closer” for some reason. They’d rather lose.
One won lost won - October 11, 2009
Vlad can't run??
So CF Ellsbury’s play was to first!!
He gets Vlad out, and the game is over!!
One won lost won - October 11, 2009
This is kinda weird to say but...
better the Sox get swept and the Angels advance than the other way around. There is one less team that Fox can suck in the AL Championship Series. Yankees are more than likely going to advance so…
Might end up being the dreaded “freeway series” in L.A. if Angels and Dodgers run the table……????
but hey, I’d rather have at least one Ca team in the WS and if happens to be two, even better.
mrod - October 11, 2009
agree with all that
Anything that destroys the “East Coast Cabal” and all their machinations. ESPN is all about the Red Sox and Yankees, and anything that diminishes that, I am for.
Only reason for disliking the all-LA World Series, is that the weather will be grand. If it was Colorado-Boston, I would love to see snow and dismal East Coast temperatures, all because I hate the fact that baseball doesn’t finish up by October 9th. It’s more like hockey than baseball, with the playoffs, followed by the playoffs, followed by the “finals”.
Greed. Unvarnished greed has shoved tradition down an open manhole.
One won lost won - October 11, 2009
And, the thought of having three, even four teams west of ESPN's covering range
in the LCS is awesome.
Even if two of them are the slegnA and the Dodgers.
Blicks - October 11, 2009
Agree 100%
and agree even more, if we can widespread use of “slegnA” out of this.
“Los Angeles Angels” < The Angels Angels
I like absurdities, but not foolish redundancies.
One won lost won - October 11, 2009
I know it's sorta blasphemous
But I felt yesterday and continue to feel that the die was somehow cast on day 3 of the season, and that the ring is the Halos’ to lose. I know we are supposed to hate them more than death but I’m a baseball fan since age 2 and I see Red People with the trophy this time, they are playing exceptionally, let’s face it.
I’m for a freeway series, make these East Coast chumps stay up/pay attention.
emperor nobody - October 11, 2009
I'm real happy Papelbon gave up the game winning and series ending hit
One of my least favorite closers.
worldblee - October 11, 2009
+1
micdog2001 - October 12, 2009
Here, here!
Red Sux go down!
mrod - October 11, 2009
god damn 49ers
9Custs - October 11, 2009
It frees up my afternoon
so that’s good. Plus, it’s been funny seeing the limitations of Singletary’s rah-rah stuff. His schtick of calling a timeout to rally the defense is great unless the team gives up a touchdown on the very next play.
bear88 - October 11, 2009
This just makes me think that
there are no good managers, just bad and really bad ones.
travdog6 - October 11, 2009
at the end of the day, it's the players who play, not the manager
OaklandSi - October 11, 2009
agreed
Managers can make conditions conducive for good play (Jim Tracy in Colorado) and that is about it. Otherwise, it is up to the players.
One won lost won - October 11, 2009
Weirdly enough I found myself rooting for the Angels (apparently some of you did too).
When Paps walked Hunter, I thought “bad move.” I also had a premonition when Fox flashed that Paplebon had never given up an earned run in the playoffs, right before Abreu jacked one off the wall for the first run in the 9th.
I know some circumstances are quite different from 1986, but I thought it was a little payback for Dave Henderson’s heartbreak in game 6. I’m still waiting for some payback against LA for Kirk G (I can’t even type the word).
JJ Martin - October 11, 2009
It's good you can't.
We don’t say that name here.
And that fucker better never walk in front of my car.
Leopold Bloom - October 11, 2009
Sweet, sweet... Bloom?
Whatever. Run ’im over.
Faust - October 11, 2009
sweet, sweet Faustus.
Leopold Bloom - October 11, 2009
Wasn't Hunter really killing the Sox in this series though?
maybe that is why he walked him.
micdog2001 - October 12, 2009
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