I'm actually coming to terms with Jason Giambi being an Oakland A again. It's tough at times because I still feel like the jilted lover, but at least he's made things right in the end. Granted, it's because he probably didn't have any other options, but it's still good to think of Giambi donning the green and gold.
Before last year started, the biggest thing I was excited about with the A's was to think of getting a chance to see the kids playing regularly and see what they had. It was pretty exciting at times to see Carlos "Mr. Double" Gonzalez. He played some excellent center field. Kurt Suzuki became an absolute joy to watch behind the plate. He called an excellent game but he also developed into a damn good hitter too (he wound up being the second highest position player on the team in terms of VORP). On the other hand, watching Daric Barton and Travis Buck was sort of like diving into the shallow end of a pool with no water (sorry, Daric). You were excited going in, but damn if it didn't hurt a lot. But that's what happens with younger players. They're Forrest Gump's box of chocolates.
The thing with Giambi is that he has a proven track record of success. And Beane has always told me that the best indicator of future performance is past performance and even though that isn't an exact science, it's the best of what is available. Giambi was fifth on the Yankees last year with his 30 VORP rating. He had a .373 OBP and .502 slugging. And I still believe that he can be a better hitter. I do buy into the theory that he adjusted his swing for Yankee Stadium and tried to pull the ball a lot more. When G was with the A's, he focused on going to all fields because the Coliseum demanded it. Now I'm not sure how easy it will be for Giambi to adjust back considering his home/road splits from last year (.929 OPS home, .826 OPS road) but Giambi has always seemed to hit well in the usually hitter unfriendly confines of the Coliseum. I anticipate him picking that right up again immediately.
So while I don't really have a statistical argument as to why G will have a great 2009, I think that the fact that he's returning to a park where he always seemed to hit well and that he won't be trying to pull for a short porch any more will lead to a great year. Well as long as he can stay healthy that is, which is the standard clause invoked whenever talking about an Oakland Athletic. I am really excited about the A's offense for the first time since maybe 2001 or 2002. Matt Holliday, Jack Cust and Giambi, with hopefully a healthy Eric Chavez will be a lot of fun to watch. Maybe it's just me being nostalgic, but I'm still really excited and think G will combine with Holliday and Cust to provide some runs for a run-starved team. What do you think Giambi will provide for the A's in 2009? Do you think he'll be better or worse than his last year in New York?
0 recs | 74 comments
I think we'll know fairly early in the season how much Giambi has left
while of course that’s important, and Holliday’s acquisition was also important, I think the health and performance of Ducschere, Ellis and Chavez will be key to making the A’s a contending club in 2009….and in any event, I’ll be in the stands cheering them on!
OaklandSi - January 31, 2009
Remember...
Frank Thomas didn’t show much at the beginning of the year and went on to hit 39 HRs.
brenarlo - January 31, 2009
That was typical of Thomas though
April is his worst month.
thejd44 - January 31, 2009
that's what I was thinking
OaklandSi - January 31, 2009
dude
Buck Turgidson - January 31, 2009
this
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CWVnPlUCrf8
Buck Turgidson - January 31, 2009
dude
they should’ve got Michael Phelps to do it.
SF Geoff - February 1, 2009
priceless
OaklandSi - February 1, 2009
Given age and park
I’d say it is a pretty good bet that Giambi will have a “small” year— the question is how big the slippage is.The A’s can live with a marginal decline—something more precipitous—partic.injury related— will make this gamble pretty sour.
If I had to venture a more specific projection,I’d say 135 G and about 550 PA. I’ll say 255-360-490. Possibly 25 Hrs or so. Which will be fine.
windyfelix - January 31, 2009
The only bright spot to a potential Giambi injury/so-bad-he's-benched-or-released scenario
Is that it would allow Cust to move back to DH, Buck (or Cunningham or whoever) to return to playing everyday, and Barton to play everyday. I’m fine with all those things.
thejd44 - January 31, 2009
This is why I've been against the Giambi thing from day one
I hope I’m wrong, but I could easily see .230/.340/.470 which, although nice, isn’t worth him playing over Barton’s defense.
nevermoor - January 31, 2009
It is if Barton hasn't drastically improved his hitting...
PaulThomas - January 31, 2009
I dunno why barton has such a bad year.
He has performed well everywhere hes been, all while being young for his level. I think he bounces back. A hitter with that kinda eye almost has to. He still walked an awful lot for his plate appearances.
Syphon - January 31, 2009
just from watching
watching a bunch of Barton’s ABs there were a ton of Ks where it was borderline Ball. I think with a bit more time to get used to MLB level umpire calls, Barton will figure out what goes for a strike in this league. Then we can watch his OBP surge.
this is total speculation based of of watching games, and no statistical data was accrued – I’m way to busy at work to dedicate such efforts
ru155 - February 2, 2009
I disagree.
I hope you’re right, but I see a 38 year old who has been declining for the last several years.
Granted, he’s declined from superstar to merely above average, but there’s only so long a guy can sustain production.
mikev - January 31, 2009
I'm not optimistic either. I see .235/.350/.445 in 240 PA and assorted injuries.
WaddellCanseco - January 31, 2009
Why the "assorted injuries"?
Because he’s one year older than last year? Correct me if I’m mistaken, but has Giambi ever pulled a muscle of any kind? Has he ever broken a bone? I think the only injury he’s had was “undisclosed”… is that what your talking about?
Giambi comes to the ballpark prepared to go to work. And he won’t be playing much 1B, if at all. I just don’t see the “assorted injuries” thing coming to fruition. Are the A’s that cursed in you mind?
Colorado Fan - January 31, 2009
So he has had "undisclosed" injuries/illnesses in 2004 and 2007?
thejd44 - February 1, 2009
He's old, he's always had "old player skills", he's not treated his body as a temple and he's
had a serious illness.
WaddellCanseco - February 1, 2009
I'm just curious-- is there a single A's player you ARE optimistic about?
PaulThomas - January 31, 2009
Anderson and Cahill, apparently.
thejd44 - February 1, 2009
Sure, long term, but not really in 2009.
WaddellCanseco - February 1, 2009
Terrance Long...
oh wait what years is this?
A'sfaninNC - February 2, 2009
Good question. I hadn't thought about it, but not really. Holliday should meet expectations,
but other than that, I see bad times today…or at least this season. I was in most of the game threads the second half of last year.
WaddellCanseco - February 1, 2009
Other than that, I'm somewhat optimistic about Barton, if he's healthy
WaddellCanseco - February 1, 2009
I think he will produce slightly slightly better.
Also I think there is little logic to the fact that his altering his swing at Yankee stadium hurt his offensive output. Clearly he changed his swing to improve his output and he probably left it that way because he felt that it was indeed improving his output. Unless he is a really poor mathematician – very possible albeit – then I doubt he was suffering from a great unrecognized inefficiency. Personally, I just think he is more comfortable in Oakland, knowing he can stink it up for 20 ABs straight if that is what it takes to go on a surge. Little things like that that will help him more than age will hurt him next season.
ChadGod - January 31, 2009
Bad mathematician?
I’m not sure how stinking it up for 20 ABs in order to go on a surge makes mathematical sense either… but whatever. As far as Jason being more comfortable in the Coli, that’s probably our hearts talking more than our heads. My head tells me Giambi will probably put up numbers similar to the past few seasons, perhaps continuing his gradual decline, perhaps enjoying a bit of a comeback. Either way, those numbers project to be an improvement over last year’s offensive stinkfest, and that’s good enough for me!
IowaA'sFan - January 31, 2009
Old habits
Depends on if he starts roiding it up again. If past history is any indicator….ZING!
soccerman8 - January 31, 2009
Starts roiding up again?
He’s back to being huge, and has been for the past few years. He’s clearly using something again, because he’s not the same sized Giambi he was in 2004 – just after his BALCO disaster.
thejd44 - January 31, 2009
Could just be natural
Lot’s of guys balloon up late in their careers.
Helloooo 1st - January 31, 2009
He did get really sick for awhile
Makes sense he’d shrink from that and recover.
nevermoor - January 31, 2009
What would shrink?
Can you give me two examples?
Nico - January 31, 2009
Funny how that "sickness" coincided with the exact time he stopped using.
Sorry, but I don’t trust anybody. Especially those who admitted to wrongdoing, dropped weight, then somehow added most/all of it later on. (And, of course, one of the things he did still isn’t being tested for)
thejd44 - February 1, 2009
Except it's not Frank Thomas aging weight, it's Barry Bonds aging mutatation.
thejd44 - February 1, 2009
PECOTA's outlook isn't so good
But it looks like that may be largely a function of staying healthy.
436 PA, 21 HR, 64 RBI, .232 BA, .346 OBP, .450 SLG
If we can get 550 PA out of him, that would project to a nicer looking 26 HR and 81 RBI.
I think PECOTA is selling Giambi a little short in the batting average department. I’ll say .250/.360/.475 with 24HR and 85 RBI, and I’ll be very happy if he has that season.
HigherPie - January 31, 2009
Projecting RBIs is about as silly as using them as a basis for what makes a successful season
I actually think that line for Giambi is about right. I just don’t see how he doesn’t get worse from last year.
thejd44 - January 31, 2009
Call me crazy...
But if the A’s are in contention Giambi’s line will be .250/.380/.500 with 30 HRs and 100 RBIs. AND, he’ll get some MVP consideration. I think his season will be a lot like FT’s.
But, if the A’s fall out early then he’ll probably take more days off, let small injuries bench him, and will end up with a disappointing year.
brenarlo - January 31, 2009
If there's no water, it doesn't really matter
whether you’re diving into the shallow end or the deep end. Come to think of it, shallow end is probably better because at least you don’t have as far to fall.
iglew - January 31, 2009
I applaud your brillance
grover - January 31, 2009
It was more of an analogy to our boy Daric's off time activities
Tyler Bleszinski - January 31, 2009
I think Giambi will be closer to Mike Piazza 2007 than Frank Thomas 2006
Although that over-exaggerates how not-that-great I think he’ll be, since Piazza was just about useless.
A .350 wOBA is about what I expect out of Giambi. Not terrible by any means, but not good enough for a poor defensive 1B, either. I think he’ll appear to be helping the A’s far more than he actually helps the team.
thejd44 - January 31, 2009
I think he's going to be somewhere
Smack in the middle of those two, possibly closer to Frank than closer to Piazza because Piazza was, as you say, pretty useless.
Tyler Bleszinski - January 31, 2009
Giambi
The PECOTA projection for G’s BA is way off base. He is a career .286 hitter, albeit, with an of injury-filled year and a down year, most recently. Higherpie’s projection of .250/.360/.475 etc. is more reasonable, and I’ll take any bet from someone who thinks that G will hit less than .232.
greenpaddedgloves - January 31, 2009
i bet you -$1000000 he hits less than .232
travdog6 - January 31, 2009
I'm all over that bet!
mrod - January 31, 2009
Ok, but if I win you pay.
If you win I pretend this never happened
nevermoor - January 31, 2009
The career .286 hitter left years ago...
.253, .235 and .247 the last 3 years. He isn;t a high average guy anymore.
OaktownPower - January 31, 2009
.271, .208, .250 the three years before that
Giambi hasn’t hit higher than .286 since his first year in New York.
thejd44 - February 1, 2009
If G stays healthy then I think he's bound to have a hell of a year
I’m interested to see what Geren decides as far as a lineup is concerned. Me thinks a top of the order looks something like:
1)Buck/Sweeney (depends on who has a better spring or if Barton starts the year in AAA or not)
2)Cust
3)Holliday
4)Giambi
5)Chavez
6)Suzuki
7)Sweeney/Buck
8)Ellis
9)Crosby
or something like that. I guess you could alternate Suzuki in the 2 hole if need be, bumping Chavez down to the 6 hole with Cust hitting 5th etc.. but anyway you slice it the A’s are gonna be lefty heavy in this type of lineup. It would be nice if the A"s had one more solid, RH stick in that lineup to balance things out.
mrod - January 31, 2009
I'd move Suzuki down...
He had a good year for a catcher… but it wasn’t even that good of a year.
Buck will out OPS him this year. If Sweeney leads off I’d move Buck ahead of Kurt.
brenarlo - January 31, 2009
Suzuki should hit above Buck/Sweeney since it breaks up the string of lefties
And, of course, Suzuki is developing into a pretty good htiter.
thejd44 - February 1, 2009
Also meant to add I guess the 4th outfielder in this equation might affect things
be it Denorfia or Cunningham. Then you could platoon in the outfield with matchups L/R etc.. I think it it will be Denorfia, myself, with Cunningham starting in AAA, and R.Davis picking up the 5th OF slot.
mrod - January 31, 2009
Giambi's numbers may not be dominant but his presence
in the lineup will be huge. With the combination of Cust, Holliday and Giambi, opposing pitchers will not be able to pitch around any of them. Last year a BB to Cust was a regular occurence because there weren’t a lot of guys to knock him. That all changes this year. I like mrod’s lineup and hope that Cust hits 2-hole all year long. That should be a handful for opposing pitchers and I think we’ll see a lot of runs scored in the 1st inning this year.
If our young staff can pitch with a lead then I suspect that they will be much more successful. Our pitching staff had to be darn near perfect last year and that is too much to ask when the majority of them had little to no experience. I’ve always been down on Crosby but if he’s hitting 9th in ’09 than he has an opportunity to be one of the more productive 9-hole guys in the league. I just hope the negativity surrounding him will finally be enough to force him into making some adjustments in his stance and approach.
For a season that is 6 months long… it seems that the off-season lasts for 9 months. I want some baseball and can’t wait until it gets here!!
ohtobe21likehuston - January 31, 2009
ahem...
To your last line:
One won lost won - January 31, 2009
word my brother.....
Especially since the Warriors season is already over halfway thru the season. ST can’t come soon enough! Go A’s!
mrod - January 31, 2009
Yeah, I told everyone that Jamal Crawford wasn't going to do anybody in Oakland any favors
But he does like to shoot the ball, doesn’t he?
thejd44 - February 1, 2009
Every projection stat tells us that he'll do worse
And I think he will, but I dont really care because he’s still an upgrade from the crap we had last year
ATarHeel - January 31, 2009
Depends...
I think if he hits in front of Holliday he will see some good pitches and probably have a better year as opposed to protecting Holliday and having someone like Cust or Chavez behind him.
On a side not: When did AthleticsNation stick a cork up their butt? My MychaelBourbon name got banned for no reason..i violated no rules and just made a name reflecting recent athletic history….why so sensitive? Why the Nazi hammer? This name will probably get banned as well due to this post but others should know that banning a screenname just for using a little humour in a screenname when no profanities or rules were broken is lame and a reflection of abuse of power by the people that run this place.
Go ahead, Ban this name too..this place is whack…I’ll go back to goldenstateofmind and take my rejection from this lame group of Oakland fans in stride and root for the team that I have been rooting for the past 25 years in private. What a joke.
RonHassy'sMullet - January 31, 2009
exaggeration of the month
The moderator of a privately owned site choosing to block a name that, while a clever pun, will inevitably lead to tedious discussions about a rumor that many people found offensive
vs
exterminating millions of people in the gas chambers.
I think you lack perspective.
iglew - January 31, 2009
And an "e"
It’s Hassey.
Nico - January 31, 2009
Well said
People have to remember that a blog is simply a blog. That said, there is no reason to make one’s name a continous knock on another person. No supportable reason.
One won lost won - January 31, 2009
{deletes NiCo'S g0aT screen name}
Helloooo 1st - January 31, 2009
Man, alcoholism is a serious issue for some folks
You know, some people might be really offended by that. My advice is to chill. I have to agree that user name is completely inappropriate.
Buck Turgidson - January 31, 2009
I dunno, I think him equating the banning of a name on a blog with the genocide of 6 million people more offensive than making fun of somebody's drinking problem
Oh, and protection doesn’t exist.
thejd44 - February 1, 2009
I keep telling 'em protection doesn't exist
I haven’t convinced a single one though.
nevermoor - February 1, 2009
What is AN's stance on sockpuppet accounts, anyway? I'm too lazy to check.
JediLeroy - February 2, 2009
I've got one ... that I've used *very* sparingly
monkeyball - February 3, 2009
*searches for monkeyball related usernames like monkeyballssexlife*
JediLeroy - February 3, 2009
That (user name) doesn't exist
nevermoor - February 3, 2009
Mr. Urban is a member of AN...
and your SN was a violation of the community guidelines because of that. We are not supposed to make fun of each other in mean spirited ways.
IM4Oakgal - February 2, 2009
Back to Giambi...
I’m feeling a .250, 25-30 HR, 90+RBIs season. But it all depends if he wears his green and gold thong or not. Regardless, he’s going to make the other guys around him hit better.
Trotter - February 1, 2009
they'll feel better if he wears his thong?
OaklandSi - February 1, 2009
I'd avoid putting anyone on the major league roster you don't want getting any major
league AB. My bench would be:
C – Powell
IF – Hannahan
IF – Pennington
OF – Buck
OK you don’t want Powell or Pennington to get AB, but then just don’t play them. I’d play Buck in CF against lefties and bring him in to replace Cust for defense late in games. Also play him a couple of times a week against righties and rest Giambi.
I don’t want to see Baisley, Denorfia, Patterson or anyone else except in an emergency, and I don’t want to see emergencies.
WaddellCanseco - February 2, 2009
5th OF?
Denorfia or Davis?
nevermoor - February 3, 2009
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