Two of the more interesting stories for our beleaguered team this year are closer Huston Street and setup man and AN author Brad Ziegler. Having read the title (and not being an Angels fan), you have probably figured out which player will be the focus of this article. AFTER you finish reading this article and commenting on it thoroughly, head over to Hardball Times, where our own salb918 has written a fascinating article on Brad Ziegler and why his slow pitch softball delivery is so effective. He has graphs … I like graphs … I have graphs too, so stay and enjoy my graphs … then go check out his article.
So Huston Street has been a pretty frustrating player for a lot of us. I had always seen him as the heir apparent to Dennis Eckersley. In celebrating that, I hung my signed, framed SI with Eck on its cover next to my signed, framed Beckett with Huston on the cover.
But, see, there is a difference between Huston Street and most closers. Health issues this year, aside, Huston Street is a really, really good pitcher. Over his career, he has done a great job of not allowing the opposing team to score very many runs. The problem, though, is that he has just been too darn consistent. Whereas his overall numbers have generally been in line with the bottom of the top tier or the top of the second tier (depending on how you define them) of closers, he has blown quite a few more saves than you would expect. Why? Because, in accumulating saves and avoiding blown saves, consistency is a bad thing. The more evenly his runs allowed are distributed, the more blown saves he will have. Because of that, though, the A’s win a lot of games that Huston blew the save in. They are 2-3 this year, for example. Because of that, saves and blown saves underrate Huston’s ability as a closer. How much, exactly, is a story for another column.
This year, though, it has been different. Huston has given up more runs, hits, homeruns and walks than he has in the past. Why? Well many suggest that it is due to a declining fastball, likely due to health problems. But is that true?
Well, at first glance, his fastball has definitely slowed down a bit over the years.
2005: 91.2 mph
2006: 91.7 mph
2007: 90.4 mph
2008: 89.8 mph
source: fangraphs.com
Yep, that is slower – but I am still not convinced. This is Staturday and we demand more rigorous analysis than that. Thanks to 74mk, that analysis is now possible. Note, this data does not include games in Japan, as those did not have reliable pitch data and runs through July 27.
As you can see, his fastball velocity has trended down over the course of the season but it is pretty all over the place and it is hard to make much out of it.
All of a sudden -- when we use a rolling average, instead of single games – the data becomes a lot more clear. Huston’s velocity plummeted in late May. In April and most of May, he was typically working at nearly ninety miles per hour. Since June, though, his velocity has typically been around eighty-eight. So, yes, I think it is pretty clear that Huston as lost velocity – but that leaves the question, is that loss of velocity the reason for his sub-par play?
To determine this, I separated games by the speed of his fastball. Based both on simplicity and comparable sample size, I broke the games into three categories – those in which his average fastball was 88.49 mph or less, those where his average fastball was 89.5 mph or more and those in between. The difference in results was stark:
When Huston was working in the upper range, he was flat out dominant – striking out more than a batter per inning and only allowing a hit every third inning, a batting average of roughly .120.
The middle group of games sees a small drop in strikeouts but a huge increase in hits, homeruns and, not surprisingly, runs.
The slowest group is event worse. He strikes out very few, gives up more than a hit an innings and allows a ton of runs. The only redeeming quality of this set is that he managed to keep the ball in the park.
So Huston’s fastball becomes very hittable when it drops below ninety? Not so fast.
Ninety-one of the batters Huston faced saw their plate appearance end with a fastball. In those at bats, batters put up a .200/.253/.341 line. Clearly, hitters have not done much damage to Huston’s fastball. What is more, it does not really matter how fast the fastball was thrown:
Batters have been even less productive against Huston’s slider, with a .194/.237/.333. No, the damage has almost entirely been done against his changeup, allowing a .280/.333/.520 line. It seems that the loss of velocity does not make Huston’s fastball any easier to hit – but the loss of separation from his changeup makes it much, much easier to hit. Perhaps Huston should start throwing fewer changeups until he gets his velocity back. He has not made that adjustment yet, though, as he has been throwing it about 16% of the time all season. Hopefully the couple of hours will not make this article someone else’s problem … unless it is Tampa Bay’s problem.
UPDATES:
Spurred on my grover's questions, here are a couple more charts.
Average velocity and movement of change up by outcome:
As you can see, there is no real difference in the velocity or movement of his change ups based on the results of that pitch.
Separation between average velocity of fastball and change up:
The results are a bit interesting, but somewhat rational. The less separation he has, the more hittable he is -- but in games with the least separation, he also has the best control. Curiously, it is the last group of games when he threw the most change ups. The first two were virtually identical, with 2.38 and 2.32 CU/IP, respectively. The group with the least separation, however featured 3.5 CU/IP. 
As far as Faust's question, it seems that his change up's velocity has more or less tracked his fastball velocity.
0 recs | 68 comments
nice article
and Sal’s article in THT has stupendous pictures. Not that yours aren’t nice, devo, but they don’t move and stuff. It would be interesting (and hard) to see if Street’s release point is changing as well. I recall people estimating his peculiar release adding a few virtual mph to his pitches.
Apricot - August 2, 2008
Very Impressive Info Devo
All the stats and graphs have a lot of great info there and makes perfect sense. I have also noticed the drop in velocity. I was not really aware of any health issues that Street has been having, did I miss something?
Well, as much as I think you are absolutely right in the points you made, I think that his troubles could also be attributed to one of two other things.
1. I think Huston has become very predictable. I made a comment to my Dad the other day that I would be I able predict each and every pitch Huston would throw during that at bat. And of course I did, more or less. Fast-ball strike one, fastball strike two, slider on the outside corner ball one, slider supposed to be on the outside corner – more like skimming the ground and almost getting away from Suzuki ball 2, change up inside for a hit. I was pretty much spot on. (I may have gotten the pitch name wrong, but my locations and outcomes were right!)
My point is if Huston has become so predictable that a blonde in California can predict which pitches Huston is going to throw, don’t you think baseball brainiacs, scouts and coaches can predict it as well. A drop in velocity is a serious problem, but the fact remains that there are plenty of pitchers who don’t have the fastest stuff, but they keep batters on their toes, thus being dominant. Huston is not surprising anyone!
2. The other thing that I believe might be at issue here is: SEX! Yes! That is right, I said it. SEX! I don’t think it is a coincidence that Mr. Street was married in January and now he is having velocity problems! Maybe he should try a little abstinance and see if his velocity returns. Put all that sexual tension back into his fastball! At this point, it really couldn’t hurt trying!
BobbyCrosbysGirl - August 2, 2008
number 2... what?
old wive’s tales and urban legends.
rebus - August 2, 2008
Who says marriage = more sex?
rightbackin - August 2, 2008
Which came first (mind out of gutter) -- sex or the lower velocity (mind back in gutter)?
WaddellCanseco - August 2, 2008
Can someone say Open Letter to Curt Young?
vignette17 - August 2, 2008
I'm couldn't agree more...
if you consistently give up runs as a closer, you’ll pretty much suck as a closer. I’m kinda startin’ to like all this stat shit.
FoolshGame22 - August 2, 2008
see, now, there's a good example of where the...
5 minute edit rule should apply.
FoolshGame22 - August 2, 2008
I have irrational love for Huston Street
probably inevitable that he’s traded sometime, but that’ll be a sad day
closetasfan - August 2, 2008
Nice work, devo
Question: You’ve shown the drop in fastball velocity, I’m curious to know if there have been any change in the speed/movement on his change-up. I’m guessing the speed has stayed the same but since you’d already be looking at the data it would be nice to confirm that.
grover - August 2, 2008
I'll see what I can do ...
devo - August 2, 2008
Tell ya what
Just link the page and I can take the look.
grover - August 2, 2008
There's no page yet ...
devo - August 3, 2008
See the new charts above
devo - August 3, 2008
WOW
If I read this thread correctly, fastball velocity can predict when a guy will get laid. That explains it!
movetotexas - August 2, 2008
That's it...
I’m officially abandoning my change-up.
oblique - August 2, 2008
Has the long-ball theory,
been officially repudiated?
alox - August 2, 2008
this might explain why Beane won't let Braden throw his screwball
monkeyball - August 2, 2008
Very nice, Devo.
Glad I let you go this week!
salb918 - August 2, 2008
Awesome article sal!
I liked the one on good team, bad team as well
(back to praising Devo)
WaddellCanseco - August 2, 2008
Yours was awesome, too ... this way everyone wins!
devo - August 2, 2008
opposite of aphrodisiac is
(drumroll please) wedding ring.
oakath - August 2, 2008
very interesting, devo
I’m surprised you were able to tease such a strong correlation out of the data. Very suggestive.
Your hypothesis that the change is getting hammered because of the lesser gap between fastball and changeup velocity is plausible, and I suppose it’s the most likely explanation, although I’m a little skeptical that this factor would have that much of an effect. It could also be, for example, that some mechanical flaw (say, with his release point or arm slot or some such thing – I don’t pretend to know anything about pitcher mechanics) that causes the fastball to be slower also causes the changeup to be straighter or something. For that matter, we don’t even know that the fastball-changeup gap is actually smaller when his fastball is slower – since both pitches are thrown with the same motion, maybe his change is also down a couple mph whenever his fastball is down a couple mph.
Just throwing that out there – I don’t know the real explanation. (And I don’t expect you, using your own time on an unpaid gig, to be able to track down and analyze every damn thing – this is quite interesting as is.) Your suggestion is the most straightforward and therefore no doubt the most likely.
BTW, you should edit that “29.5 mph” that appears before your first table. I think you meant “89.5 mph”, but it’s confusing.
Faust - August 2, 2008
Thanks for the catch, it's fixed ...
I’ll take a quick peak at his change up’s velocity and movement over the course of the season … I’ll throw up a quick fanpost with my results …
devo - August 2, 2008
See the graph above ...
the movement would be too much work with the data set up as it is at this point.
devo - August 3, 2008
Very good article, Devo
And I find myself enjoying trying to think in terms of numbers and stats, so please allow me to test the waters a bit here.
So his velocity is down on his fast ball. That does not necessarily mean that his change-up is ineffective, though, right? There is the fact that when the fastball is faster, the difference in speeds can be more effective. But isn’t it also true that if the fastball is more effective, then the fastball is more effective?
See if I’m making sense here. If they’re getting wood on the 89 mph fastball, and he can’t blow it past them like he can when it’s 90+, does it necessarily dictate that his change-up stops working? Isn’t it just as likely that his fastball is ineffective, so he has no “out” pitches and must rely more upon his third-best pitch?
It would seem that the problem isn’t that he’s throwing his third-best pitch. It’s that his second-best pitch is less effective, and he must rely upon his change-up more. Am I way off and out of my realm—well, I mean, I’m obviously out of my realm, but…
Leopold Bloom - August 2, 2008
But hitters aren't hitting the slower fastball that hard. They're murdering the change
when the fastball is slower.
WaddellCanseco - August 2, 2008
but are the two directly correlated?
Couldn’t the reason be that they’re hitting the change-up when the fastball’s speed is down that the fastball is not reliable to get the batter out? If he’s going to his second or third-best pitch because the fastball can’t get the batter out, then the problem might not be the change-up. The problem could be the loss of velocity makes his fastball useless in go-to situations.
Though I think this is all moot, based on Nico’s question and the chart that 74mk put below, and it may actually point to a lack of variance on the part of Street’s pitch selection. Which means this is all Suzuki’s fault. Or Rob Bowen. Or perhaps Adam Melhuse…
Leopold Bloom - August 2, 2008
I blame Van Burkeleo
Seems safe.
Nico - August 2, 2008
For Crosby's approach? Me too.
For calling the wrong pitches? That should go on Curt Young.
ohtobe21likehuston - August 2, 2008
As always, correlation does not imply causation ...
I feel that the data suggests that my hypothesis - that his change up becomes hittable because he loses separation - is likely to be true. But it does not say that it is true.
But, like I replied to your initial post, he isn’t actually throwing his change up more often.
devo - August 2, 2008
They aren't hitting the fastball, though, period ...
hitters have been very, very unproductive against his fastball. They have done nothing against it at all, no matter how fast it is thrown. All of the damage happens in games when he doesn’t have his good fastball, but happens against his change up.
Also, as I pointed out at the end, he hasn’t been throwing his change up more often as his velocity has gone down. He has actually thrown it slightly less often—but that’s a SSS thing.
devo - August 2, 2008
My question is: What about the factor that
Street only throws his changeup to lefties, and has always had more trouble getting lefties out? Wouldn’t this be a “correlation is not causation” problem – that the changeup isn’t the problem so much as lefties are?
I don’t disagree, btw, with the notion that fastball velocity is an issue, for the reason Leopold Bloom cites – the effect on the rest of his pitches when hitters don’t have to “start” (commit) as early, and the use of his third-best pitch too much. I’m just adding a point to the analysis.
Nico - August 2, 2008
Very good point
There’s unquestionably a strong selection bias there.
Faust - August 2, 2008
It would be nice to know how hitters were hitting the change when the
fastball was faster.
WaddellCanseco - August 2, 2008
I'll look into the L-R thing too ...
devo - August 2, 2008
nevermind, looks like 74mk already did ...
devo - August 2, 2008
Someone above said paging Curt Young
But shouldn’t someone let Suzuki know? He’s the one calling the game. The other thing is that it looks to me that Street seems to have a hard time throwing the change up for strikes. He threw something like three in a row to, I think it was Drew, and couldn’t seem to hit the zone.
Tyler Bleszinski - August 2, 2008
Shouldn't Curt Young page Suzuki? Everyone is always blaming the players
for not doing the right things. What are the responsibilties of coaches in this day and age?
ohtobe21likehuston - August 2, 2008
Their responsibilities are to be available
to be fired when the players screw up.
alox - August 2, 2008
Why do we presume...
...that the coaches and other players don’t know what is going on, whatever that ‘what’ may be? Granted, they’re human and don’t catch literally everything, but they do have the same (or better) access to live observation, video, stats, etc. Plus, it’s their job and they spend far more time worrying about these things than even the most rabid fans do.
UncleLeo - August 2, 2008
I think it's because we are on a blog and each have an opinion.
Not saying that I’m right or wrong. Just my two cents.
ohtobe21likehuston - August 2, 2008
My take is hitters aren't chasing the good changeup with two strikes
Jason Giambi, when he walked to set up the run in the 9th at New York, and yesterday Lowrie, took perfect changeups that started at the knees and dipped out of the zone. Those should be swing-throughs. That they aren’t tells me hitters aren’t having to commit early enough – which may go right back to fastball velocity.
Nico - August 2, 2008
Yes
I can’t get the image out of my mind of Wilson F’ing Betemit reaching down for an ankle-high fading changeup on the outside corner and flicking it over shortstop to beat us. Looked like a pretty damn good pitch – if someone like Wilson Betemit can hit that pitch, I have to think he’s got no fear of either the fastball or the inside corner.
Faust - August 2, 2008
That one was actually a slider -
the fact that it could be mistaken for a changeup tells you a lot about why Betemit handled it so easily.
Nico - August 2, 2008
Actually, I think that just tells you about the difficulty of identifying pitches
based on a TV camera angle…
PaulThomas - August 2, 2008
For what it's worth
Not sure what any of that means, really, but there it is. (all those swing & miss percentages are well above league average, by the way)
74mk - August 2, 2008
So he predominantly throws
the change-up versus lefties and the slider versus righties, so his second and third-best pitches change, depending upon who’s at-bat…interesting. He’s historically done equally well against both, right?
Leopold Bloom - August 2, 2008
By the way
Thanks, 74mk, for doing the grunt work. The Staturday crew appreciates any and all help.
grover - August 2, 2008
1. I think Street is finally healthy.
2. Given #1, (I assume/hope) he’ll pitch well over the course of the next two months.
3. Given #2, (I assume/hope) he’ll fetch a more appealing trade bounty during the offseason than he would have had
wethe A’s moved him at the deadline, and, failing that, he’ll perform excellently forusthe A’s in 2009. Win-win.4. The multitude of television commentators who constantly claim that velocity is nice and all but doesn’t really matter, that actually pitching boils down to guile and location and mystical sixth sense strategy know-how, are full of horses—t. Velocity matters.
5. All Staturday posts should contain the following: a) two graphs, minimum b) at least one counterintuitive conclusion, and c) three bits of math jargon that I have to google in order to keep up with the analysis.
6. I dislike Jonathan Papelbon intensely.
Caveat to #4: Of course there are exceptions.
Caveat to #5: If grover wants to post a trade/prospect/roster machination diary in the guise of a Staturday offering, that is also acceptable.
Addendum to #6: During the 9th and 10th innings last night, I found myself entering into various imaginary pacts with the devil, such as “if Barton lines one into the gap here, and the camera pans to and lingers on a sufficiently amusing expression of horror and disappointment on Papelbon’s face, I will offer my soul up on the spot”.
74mk - August 2, 2008
You either really really hate Papelbon, or undervalue your soul
Velocity matters, but not without command. Here’s a couple extremely complex scientific equations:
Command without velocity = Duchscherer.
Velocity without command = Henry Rodriguez.
Nico - August 2, 2008
Both, probably
As to your equation:
a) I did say there are exceptions, and
b) the league leaders in average velocity correlate pretty strongly with the league leaders in awesome pitching. (again, not perfectly, but strongly enough to suggest that throwing 95mph is pretty useful)
74mk - August 2, 2008
To your point number four,
if it were all (or even most) guile, location and heart, then:
1. The Esteban Loiaza’s of our pitching staff would not scare the hell out of me like they do/have.
2. The Esteban Loiaza’s of the world would have significantly greater job security.
And, agreed, Papelbon needs to learn a little humility.
Leopold Bloom - August 2, 2008
I didn't see yesterday's game. Did Papelbon do something irritating?
WaddellCanseco - August 2, 2008
showed up
mikev - August 2, 2008
showed up
to the game, or showed up a player?
flipgatey3 - August 2, 2008
Awesome article Devo!
(I have nothing else useful to add)
WaddellCanseco - August 2, 2008
Sal's article at THT
is pretty frickin’ awesome too.
Leopold Bloom - August 2, 2008
Nice work
Any way we can break down swingthrough/foul percentages for his various pitches based on the velocity of the fastball? I’m trying to isolate what is causing his K rate to drop when his velocity is down.
I don’t think you can really read into the batting averages against various pitches, because changeups are hit harder (league-wide) when they’re hit and because of the selection bias in terms of lefty and righty batters (lefties get the change, righties get the slider) and lefties hit Street harder in general. Or do they? Is Street’s fastball more hittable by lefties? Or are they better against him solely because of mashing the change?
Also: I think that groin problem is still bugging him. The rolling-average velocity graph shows it pretty starkly. The A’s might be well served to DL him for a bit so it can heal. And strengthening it needs to be a point of emphasis in the offseason, because groin pulls recur frequently.
PaulThomas - August 2, 2008
I had a groin pull getting out of bed one morning. The pain lasted for about 6 months
so I can’t imagine how difficult the healing process can be when pitching/running on a daily basis.
ohtobe21likehuston - August 2, 2008
The relevant part ...
isn’t just that most of the damage is done against his change—it’s that hitters aren’t any more effective against his bad fastball than his good one.
I’m not sure what can be done with the tool … just getting into it …
devo - August 2, 2008
When I first read the title I thought "Oh no. We re-signed Street."
ohtobe21likehuston - August 2, 2008
Street no longer full time closer
Ken Korach pre-game show with Marty Lurie:
Bob Geren -Huston Street is no longer is the full time closer.
situation will dictate who closes games.
closer by committee
Ziegler, Devine, Casiila, Blevins ,Embree.
my guess is this is likely filler until street gets in a nice groove then will take his spot back full time
Asfan4ever723 - August 2, 2008
another question based on incomplete/anecdotal observation: is the velocity a cause or an effect?
My experience watching Street this year has been that if you watch his warm-up pitches, or the pitches against his first batter, and his offspeed pitches (whether sliders or changeups) are “floating” rather than diving, he’s bound to get hit hard.
Isn’t it possible that if Street knows (consciously or not) that his offspeed stuff is off (and he can count on neither throwing one for a strike nor feeling confident that a hitter will swing through it), he may “back off” his velocity on the fastball in an attempt to gain better control over it?
To me, it’s been easy to see when Street’s offspeed stuff has been hittable—and a hittable pitch is a hittable pitch, regardless of what the less-hittable pitches are like.
It seems as though when Street drops his arm slot, and fails to “get on top of” his pitches, he allows his offspeed pitches to float. That to me is less suggestive of a recurrence of the groin injury, and more suggestive of either just a mechanical flaw that needs to be corrected more assiduously … or arm problems.
monkeyball - August 2, 2008
(also, if he's dropping his arm slot, that could account for the velocity drop as well)
monkeyball - August 2, 2008
If he recognized that his change up was sucking on a given day ...
why wouldn’t he just not throw it?
devo - August 3, 2008
Well, for one thing, I guess that might work if he *only* had to face righties
Per 74mk’s table above, he doesn’t seem to want to throw the slider to lefties.
For another thing, it doesn’t seem to me (and, again, these are just my visual observations from seeing maybe half of Street’s appearances on tv [insert disclaimer + griping about paucity of A’s tv coverage]) that it’s just the change that floats when he’s off, but the change and the slider alike—and I think it’s the slider floating that does more to damage his effectiveness.
monkeyball - August 3, 2008
whoops -- reverse L/R in the subject line
Boy, this is good rum!
Anyway … He doesn’t want to throw the change to righties - so, if his change isn’t working, most of the time (given the majority of hitters are righties), what - he’s SOL?
monkeyball - August 3, 2008
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