For our NBA fans out there, do you remember the 1996-97 season? The Spurs suffered season-ending injuries to David Robinson and Sean Elliot and tumbled all the way to a 20-62 record.
I'm sure it was a miserable time for their fans - similar to what many A's fans are feeling right now. But the Spurs ended up receiving the No. 1 overall pick in the draft, and fortunately, that was a great year year to have the No. 1 overall, because there was a consensus No. 1 overall pick that year, a franchise-changer: Tim Duncan, perhaps the last great four-years-of-college player. Duncan has since led the Spurs to four titles and been named to 11 all-NBA teams.
It's an admittedly far from perfect analogy, for an elite basketball player can have a greater impact on his game than a baseball player can to be sure. But what I'm getting at here is that the A's of '08 are spiraling toward a top-5 pick in next year's draft themselves, and there just so happens to be a guy who might be the consensus No. 1 overall pick in next June's draft as well.
As the Spurs of 1997 can attest (or the Rays with David Price in '07), that's a good time to have the No. 1 overall pick - not in a Kwame Brown year, but in a Tim Duncan year. When the stats and the scouts and all 30 franchises agree that this guy's as close to a sure thing as it gets.
The 2009 MLB Draft might end up being a year with one of those consensus No. 1 players - Steven Strasburg of San Diego State.
And since it appears A's fans will inevitably be watching sub-.500 baseball for the remainder of the year, I thought it would be fun to look at something a little more tangible than our usual "we'll get a top-10 pick next year." That thought is more inspiring than picking at No. 12 and taking Jemile Weeks, but it'd be more interesting if we could actually put an exciting name, face, and stats to it.
So, who exactly is this elite amateur talent that might be procured with a top-3 A's draft pick next year? Strasburg is a 6'5", 215-pound righty who dominated the NCAA this year as a sophomore for the Aztecs. His fastball has reportedly reached 99 and his slider is equally dominant. One great indicator of his talent is the fact that he's the only amateur on the USA Baseball Olympic roster.
Here's a video link to Strasburg's 23 strikeout game earlier this season, and here's a short article that Dave Cameron of fangraphs wrote about him earlier this year.
Not only does Strasburg have the tools, but he measures up better than anyone in the country statistically, too. As I'm writing this, unfortunately the SDSU athletics website is down, so I can't access the stats I'd like to and I'm going from memory. (Perhaps someone can help me out in the comments with the official numbers from '08 and '07). But we're talking about an unheard-of-for-Divison I-baseball ERA of 1.74 in a full season as a starter, better than 10 K's per nine innings, and only 16 walks (IIRC) in an entire season! That's Mark Prior at USC-type dominance...and Strasburg did this in only his sophomore year.
I realize many ANers might be thinking, "We already have enough pitching! We need a an elite hitter!" But if Strasburg stays healthy and dominant in '09 and emerges as the next David Price - a consensus No. 1 overall - I think any team would be thrilled to have him. When a consensus No. 1 comes around, it's probably best to take him and let the positions sort themselves out later, even if you're stocked at that position. Just ask the Spurs.
Anyways, something to discuss during the down times. Looking at an actual, tangible, terrific player who could one day be in an A's uniform is a hell of lot more exciting for me than some vague, fuzzy concept of a top-10 pick next year.
0 recs | 37 comments
Pitching
Although I agree we have enough pitching, what you can never have enough of is elite pitching.
We’ve all seen what having three ace caliber pitchers on a staff can do, and also the return they can bring if for whatever reason you can’t retain them. I think if you find a guy that will be an almost sure future ace you do whatever you can to get him, whether that be paying an international free agent an all time high signing bonus or sacrificing your first round pick.
Threepwood XX - August 11, 2008
No. Many ANers are thinking “what on earth makes you think the A’s will get one of the top 3 draft picks this year.” They are thinking: “what is the point of this article, given that the A’s chances of landing Strasburg are in the realm of 0%?” They are thinking, “some lucky team, not the A’s, will land Strasburg, who is a great pitcher.” What on earth is the point of this article? Strasburg is the consensus #1 pick. Ok, you saved someone from looking that up…
mikeA - August 11, 2008
Sometimes there is a signability issue, and a number 1 falls
to a number 5. There is always the Boris factor. So, you never know, the A’s might have
a crack at him.
Mikko O - August 11, 2008
what about the Natasha factor?
And does Mike Mussina have anything to do with their dastardly machinations?
monkeyball - August 11, 2008
I realize that's what you are thinking Mike, and I understand it
But some people will be interested to read about Strasburg, for the reasons posted in the article. Unlike a vague concept of a future top-5 or top-10 pick, he’s tangible, and fun to hope for.
I think you’re mimicking of Mikko below might’ve been an attempt to mock him (if not, I do apologize), but he makes a valid point. Wieters fell to No. 5 just last year and he was better than the fifth overall talent.
It’s also too premature to say that Strasburg is the consensus #1 pick. He may be, by June ‘09, and that’s the word that I used in my article. He’s worth writing about now because of what he’s accomplished so far. A minor injury or mediocre performance could knock him down a few slots easily, and put him in the range that you and xbh and many others expect the A’s to be drafting.
I personally think the A’s may be drafting pretty close to No. 1. They’ve won 3 of their last 22 games, and the remaining August schedule is still brutal. I think they may end up finishing in the bottom 3, and I don’t think they’ll finish better than fourth. I realize bottom 3 would require the Padres, Nationals, or Mariners to play much better the rest of the way, but two of those three were considered playoff contenders entering this season. An August-September rally isn’t out of the question for them. Unfortunately, neither is a continued stretch of horrible baseball for the A’s.
notsellingjeans - August 11, 2008
yes strasburg could drop a few slots due to injury or bad performance. but he could also drop to like #20 or out of the first round for those same reasons, couldn’t he?
two of the padres, nationals, and mariners were considered playoff contenders by who, you? BP had them at 79, 73, and 76 wins.
also, those are just the bottom 3 teams, the a’s would also have to do worse than the orioles, royals, indians, pirates, reds, rockies, and giants. that’s 10 teams. again, it could happen, but what do you think the probability of that is?
xbhaskarx - August 11, 2008
so, what you're saying is ...
... Beane should have kept Harden and Blanton, traded pitching prospects for Manny and LaRoche, the A’s could have won the World Series, and we still could have gotten Strasburg?
Damn yoo Billee Bean!!!
monkeyball - August 11, 2008
you mean hardin?
xbhaskarx - August 11, 2008
OK,
yeah, I was too harsh there.
mikeA - August 11, 2008
sometimes
when times are tough a pitcher (pun intended) of yummy kool-aid is just the thing to make you feel better. my complaint about the “plan” starts with the same question…”what are the chances?” if we are going to dream, why not dream big???
cvdoug - August 11, 2008
Strasberg is a hell of a talent
I covered the Aztecs last year (Strasberg’s freshman year), and the coaches have had nothing but praise for him. Because the entire rotation got drafted, they bumped him up to the rotation and he was dominating game in and game out. He was one of the leaders in the country in ERA, as I recall.
JLaff - August 11, 2008
Here's a guy that seems like an A's pick...
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/A/Dustin-Ackley.shtml
OMG OBP MONEYBALL
Gallagher's Watermelons - August 11, 2008
yeah
except he plays first base and has no power. hey, sounds like daric barton
flipgatey3 - August 11, 2008
Do he and his average both take unfortunate dives?
Nico - August 11, 2008
rimshot
flipgatey3 - August 12, 2008
what is the point of this?
what are the chances the a’s finish with a worse w-l record than the mariners, nationals, AND padres?
xbhaskarx - August 11, 2008
Sometimes there is a signability issue, and a number 1 falls
to a number 5. There is always the Boris factor. So, you never know, the A’s might have a crack at him.
mikeA - August 11, 2008
damn, meant as reply to xbx
mikeA - August 11, 2008
xbhaskarx - August 11, 2008
That's all very interesting, but
you will never get me to root for the A’s to lose.
Even if on Sept 28, the A’s and Mariners are tied for last place in the majors, I will still root for the A’s to win and settle for the #2 draft pick.
iglew - August 11, 2008
I'm a bad fan
..cause in that scenario, I’d take the loss. As long as Ziggy pitches his 60th straight scoreless inning.
JediLeroy - August 11, 2008
Not a chance the A's Sink this Low
This is a fanstasy post. Strasberg is the consensus number one pick. The A’s are not as horrific as the Mariners. The M’s are even behind the Nationals for the number one pick.
hokecole - August 11, 2008
What might be more exciting than pining for Strasberg,
knowing he’ll actually be snatched by someone else, is to look at who are five really appealing matches for the A’s who might fall as far as #8-#10 or so – wherever you think the A’s might wind up. Is there a slugging 3Bman who might be a “fast track” candidate? Is there a SS with plus defense who can also hit for average? Is there a LaPorta-type masher whose lack of defense might scare teams away but who has .300/30/100 potential?
I’d be interested in seeing such a list so I can follow those guys as the draft unfolds and decide who I’m rooting for to be drafted when.
Nico - August 11, 2008
+1
xbhaskarx - August 11, 2008
why are you attacking notsellingjeans?
monkeyball - August 11, 2008
Because I want jeans and he's not selling them.
I especially want Jean Tenace and Jean O’Petralli.
Nico - August 11, 2008
Would that qualify as a Jean-On-Jean Offense?
monkeyball - August 11, 2008
Many people are saying this is a fantasy post
But nothing can top this one:
http://www.athleticsnation.com/2008/7/20/575122/the-final-sell-off-how-the
RLangford - August 11, 2008
What about the one where we acquire
Jose Lima’s wife, Jamie Kotsay, and a bimbo to be named later, all for the rather average-looking Chris Carter? Think of it this way: With this deal, if I’d be happy just to hit ONE homerun.
Nico - August 11, 2008
I can live with watching sub-.500 baseball the rest of the season...
...as long as there is at least reasonable hope it’s building toward something better in the future, but I’m not up for watching .200 baseball for the rest of the season.
UncleLeo - August 11, 2008
I've been watching .100 baseball for the past few weeks
WaddellCanseco - August 12, 2008
Lookout Landing and the Strasberg debacle
I’ve got some connections around San Diego, and from what has been passed to me (and that is as much info as I can safely mention, without friendship repercussions) I think Strasberg has his heart set on playing for the Padres, much like John Elway did not want to play for the Colts as the Colts’ number one pick. He plays for “Mr. Padre” Tony Gwynn and his favorite player is Jake Peavy. He grew up in Santee (I think) and has lived in San Diego his whole life, and it is not as if he’s looking for the money to buy his parents/mom a house, as someone from Backwoods, Mississippi might desire to do. Money is a lesser motivator in this case. So far… (I’m not sitting at their kitchen table 8^d).
Whenever the Mariners are losing, the LL denizens write “Strasberg!!” to attempt to salve their wounds. In my opinion, I would NEVER like that kind of attitude to infect the Athletics AN site. When I rebutted one of those “Strasberg!” messages, saying he’d skip the draft before the Mariners got him, that he wants the Padres, I was told to “knock it off” or get banned. Twice!
Am I banned?? Who knows? As of today all I know about LL is that it is okay to insult someone personally, like JI did to me, and continue on their foul-mouthed ways. But, say something that breaks into their fantasy…”banned!”
Reality: Yesterday is gone, and the future never gets here.
Whatever is happening game day, in my opinion, let’s stick with that game, and never, EVER, consider the “happy” consequences of losing. The future is only that. The future. And may not arrive…
just read this Wayne Estes story:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wayne_Estes
One won lost won - August 11, 2008
well he’ll probably get his wish, the padres may be even worse than the mariners.
whether you turn out to be right or not, it’s a bit thuggish for LL to threaten you with a ban if you were explaining why that may be the case as opposed to saying that just to be a troll.
hopefully jeff or someone else from lookoutlanding will comment on this…
xbhaskarx - August 11, 2008
Here's what really happened, from an LL poster.
This person posted a couple of times on one of our threads that Strasburg would sooner skip the draft than sign with the Nationals or Mariners. (I am an M’s and Nats fan, FWIW.) It was done purely to be antagonistic, without any of the context he is now providing, and the same post was repeated several times a la spam.
Moreover, it is utterly preposterous. “One won lost won” is apparently so tuned into Strasburg’s thoughts on this matter that he can’t even spell his name correctly. Additionally, the idea that Strasburg would refuse to sign as the #1 draft pick, and thus lose the massive signing bonus and fasttrack career path and risk the chance of falling significantly the next time around, is absurd. Utterly absurd. Nobody expected the Padres to be anywhere NEAR to having a chance to pick him #1 in 2009 – they were one game away from the playoffs last year – and the idea that anyone would be planning on this contingency is a laughable bit of retrospective logic. Strasburg will go where he is drafted to go. “But oh noes!” you say, “the Mariners and Nationals are horrible franchises? Who would ever want to sign with them?” Don’t be foolish: this never stopped the Rays’ #1 draft picks from signing with them.
In summary, “One won lost won” was an ignorant poster posting a theory that he could not possibly have believed in – because it is so facially absurd that nobody could advance it save in bad faith – and he did so in a forum where he was guaranteed to provoke an angry response. The only reason he posted it was to make us feel bad, to piss in the figurative beer we were drinking to console ourselves. In point of fact, he didn’t even GET that much of an angry response: a couple of posters made fun of him and that was that. It’s amazing that he still cares about this, but I’m glad I have the opportunity to set the record straight.
esoteric - August 11, 2008
Hmm...I've carefully considered both sides
and concluded that I don’t really give a s—-.
Nico - August 11, 2008
This is a valid position.
esoteric - August 11, 2008
Strasburg's numbers
(The San Diego State athletic website is back up again, apologies for not having these in the article).
Here are his freshman year stats, when he allowed 4.4 hits per 9 and had a 47/15 K to walk ratio in 37 relief innings.
And here are his full stats from his sophomore year in ‘08, in which he started 13 games, pitched 97.1 innings, boasted a 133-16 K to walk ratio, and allowed only 61 hits.
And here’s his player bio from the team website.
notsellingjeans - August 12, 2008
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