So I was halfway through a story when I saw yet another question regarding the 40-man roster in 2009. This was a topic I was going to address once Beane finished dealing (which was the nature of the earlier story) come July 31st but as there seems to be continued confusion on the topic, I'll dive in now.
This is based on what we know about the organization and existing contracts today. In other words, Mark Ellis is a FA-to-be and will therefore NOT be on next year's 40-man roster.
We'll start simple. The following is a list of 23 players who are almost guaranteed to make the 40-man roster in 2009.
Jerry Blevins, Dallas Braden, Andrew Brown, Santiago Casilla, Joey Devine, Justin Duchscherer, Dana Eveland, Sean Gallagher, Henry Rodriguez, Greg Smith, Huston Street, Brad Ziegler, Kurt Suzuki, Daric Barton, Eric Chavez, Bobbu Crosby, Gregorio Petit, Travis Buck, Jack Cust, Carlos Gonzalez, Matt Murton, Eric Patterson, Ryan Sweeney.
Barring major injury or trade, those 23 players are going to be on Oakland's 40-man roster next year.
There are 5 players on the 2008 40-man roster who will not be around next year, based on their current contracts.
Frank Thomas, Emil Brown, Mike Sweeney, Mark Ellis, Keith Foulke.
There are 10 key players within the organization who will, for the first time, need to be placed on the 2009 40-man roster or risk losing them to the Rule 5 draft.
Jimmy Shull
Jason Ray
Mike Massaro
Michael Madsen
Shull, Ray and Madsen are all coming back from surgery so there's a good chance they could slip through the Rule 5 draft without adding them to the 40-man. Madsen was pitching in AAA last year so he'd be most likely to go if someone grabbed him in the 1st round but the A's wouldn't be losing much if he went elsewhere. I've linked the 6 guys I think will make the cut and get added to the 40-man roster in 2009.
So our hypothetical 2009 40-man roster stands at 29 players. We've got 11 more spots and here is where some decisions have to be made.
Do the A's want to bring back Mark Ellis?
Are the A's going to go after any free agents?
As things stand now, the A's have about $23 million committed towards salaries next year, plus arbitrition cases for Duke, DiNardo and Street (2nd year Arby) and Cust and Bowen (1st year Arby). So rough guess we'll tack on an extra $13 million to the total... call it a $36 million payroll for next season. That's an awful lot of payroll flexibility so a significant purchase could happen.
There are 13 more players on the 2008 4-man roster to consider as well.
If I'm right on the first 29 players, then at least two of the above are getting dropped from the 40-man roster even if the A's don't make another move. The A's have a team option on Embree for 2009, if he continues to pitch poorly then I doubt the A's invest another $3 million on him. Do the A's want to go to arbitration with DiNardo again? If my math is right, Dan Meyer is out of options next season. Either he's on Oakland's roster or they have to put him on waivers.
Herrera and Robnett are ultra-toolsy outfielders who, for various reasons, haven't developed as hoped. Gray kinda sucks, Conrad is basically roster fill, Hannahan and Davis are an important step above roster fill.
What happens at Catcher? Do the A's give Bowen arbitration or do they call up Powell and let him be the back-up? (This answer is probably heavily dependent on how Powell plays through the rest of the season.)
At this point, it looks like Conrad and Embree are the odd men out with Gray next in line. You could probably swap Gray and Conrad and I wouldn't argue.
So that's how the 2009 40-man roster shapes up for now.
1 recs | 22 comments
Sounds good to me.
They could also take off Recker and DiNardo and have three slots available for new additions, and I’d be fine with it. Webb and Kilby would be the next on my list. This gives them lots of flexibility to trade for multiple prospects too.
WaddellCanseco - July 26, 2008
Random things:
1. Duke is going to be a third-year arbitration player. He’s a free agent after 2009.
2. Matt Murton will probably be a Super Two next year.
3. Danny Putnam is also Rule 5 eligible if the A’s want to protect him.
PaulThomas - July 26, 2008
Oops on Duke, thanks for the pick-up
I wasn’t going to mess with Super Two as it doesn’t effect the 40-man.
And Putnam’s so buried on the depth chart he kinda slipped my mind.
grover - July 26, 2008
Since they already dfa'd Putnam, then he didn't get claimed, and he hasn't done much since
it seems like there’s little reason to protect him.
mikeA - July 26, 2008
A's may try Aaron Cunningham in the Majors next year, if all things go well
but that decision will be made after Spring Training.
Zonis - July 26, 2008
Casey Blake to Dodgers
does this mean they dont need andy laroche at 3b anymore? anyone? bueler?
johnjahafanclub - July 26, 2008
6-Year Minor League Free Agents
I think Brooks Conrad is a 6-Year Minor League Free Agent.
Anyone else?
Hang Man - July 26, 2008
Not if he's on the major league roster, he isn't...
but we forgot Jesus Guzman, who will be a MILB FA (and definitely should be rostered in preference to some of these guys).
PaulThomas - July 26, 2008
Another good catch
Guzman’s been on the DL since joining the Rivercats and I overlooked him.
grover - July 26, 2008
Free Agents
I know there’s a logjam at middle infield in the minors, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the A’s brought Ellis back. At least, I wouldn’t be surprised to see us bring in some free agent hitting. I don’t think it’s only a question of money. (Yes, I know it’s the A’s).
I was surprised to see the payroll was $79 million last year. Of course we know it’s around $47 million this year, but if our pitching is looking good enough going into next year, I wouldn’t be surprised to see us spend some money on some hitting. We’ve spent money before under this management.
Eggman - July 26, 2008
Thanks for this, grover
I’m not as deep into roster speculation as some others here, but I do appreciate seeing the information laid out in a clear and organized fashion.
I was confused by your sentence about Ellis in the second paragraph. It sounded like you were asserting that there’s no room for him on the roster and therefore he’s definitely going, but then the rest of the article doesn’t demonstrate that at all. Did I misread the initial sentence?
I know the arguments against keeping him, and the evidence that suggests the team is looking to let him go, but if they do decide to keep him, it’s not hard to find room for him on the roster. It just means bumping one more marginal guy.
Also, in your rule 5 paragraph you don’t mention Massaro. Was one of those two “Madsen”s supposed to be “Massaro”?
iglew - July 26, 2008
Massaro's an org. soldier
I doubt the A’s protect him and it’s even more unlikey he gets grabbed in Rule 5.
I was using Ellis as an example of a FA-to-be and as of today his contract ends at the end of the season. He won’t be signed with anyone, that includes the A’s. Since we don’t know where he’ll be playing next year I didn’t add him to the 40-man.
grover - July 26, 2008
decent trade filler
for some that may have fringe spots like a gray, meyer, webb etc i’d use as trade throw in’s
Asfan4ever723 - July 26, 2008
What is Jose Garcia's status?
mikeA - July 26, 2008
He will be a free agent if the A's don't roster him
One presumes that they will evaluate where he’s at before deciding whether to add him, but he is a possible add.
Man, this number keeps expanding. No way they can protect all of these guys. Someone is going to get a decent player out of Oakland’s farm system this offseason.
PaulThomas - July 26, 2008
I need to completely re-do this thing
How about adding Gio freakin’ Gonzalez?
grover - July 27, 2008
Nah, no one would ever take him
nevermoor - July 27, 2008
Gio and Cunningham
Hi
Great stuff!
Gio Gonzalez is playing in his 5th season as we speak and was signed out of high school. Does this make him eligable?
Cunningham is in his 4th season but he was at CCollege.
It has something to do with being 19 years of age, but the A’s may need to keep both.
Thanks again, as allways a great read.
dougald1 - July 26, 2008
Yeah, Gio and Cunningham are both eligible
and both need to be protected.
notsellingjeans - July 26, 2008
Not so much Gio
considering that he’s got a very good chance of making the club next year.
muffinpryde - July 26, 2008
Well yeah
But to be on the team he needs to be on both the 25-man and the 40-man so he still takes a spot.
nevermoor - July 27, 2008
Damn, you're right
I didn’t double check the guys we traded for and forgot that some of them have been maturing for a while. Thanks for the double check.
grover - July 26, 2008
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