I was there when Texas broke a 4-4 tie in the 15th with 12 runs, and I was there when A's pitchers set a team record for walks issued in a nine-inning game. I remember when Fernando Arroyo made his only ever appearance for Oakland, walking all three batters and finishing his A's career with an infinite ERA. And I was there when Billy Martin picked the A's lineup out of a hat. Those were the days.
And they're back. Tonight the A's put up a 5-spot in the bottom of the third, an inning which ended with Jack Hannahan being thrown out at the plate on Ryan Sweeney's single. Oakland would not get another hit until the bottom of the 9th, but was very efficient in giving the five runs back, starting with a Brooks Conrad error, and ending with a Ryan Goleski Josh Hamilton homerun.
And then the 8-run top of the 9th, which suggested two things: Alan Embree seems to be in an indefinite "slump" and Andrew Brown's fastball appears to have come from his appendix.
How bittersweet a night it was for two A's rookies. On a night when Brad Ziegler tied the major league record for "scoreless innings to start a career," he also gave up the hit that scored the go-ahead run in the 7th inning. And on a night when Brooks Conrad got his first (and second) major league hit, and first (and second) major league RBI, he made the error that opened the floodgates - to put it mildly.
I did not like the mid '80s A's. I did not like them on a boat, I did not like them with a goat, I did not like them wild and pathetic (though cool steal off Doc Medich) - it's giving me a headache!
Oy.
0 recs | 161 comments
Crap. Junior High again.
< gets ass kicked >
oblique - July 25, 2008
That really did happen to me
I have a dimple to prove it.
lynnzgal - July 25, 2008
I'm guessing Leopold Bloom would like to see it.
oblique - July 25, 2008
Well, its not on my ass but
perhaps.
lynnzgal - July 25, 2008
Wait...you got your ass kicked,
you have a dimple to prove it, and the dimple’s NOT on your ass?
I don’t get it.
oblique - July 25, 2008
Punched in the face,
K?
lynnzgal - July 25, 2008
Hey, you're not talking about your ass anymore
{yawn}
{leaves}
Nico - July 25, 2008
Haha!
Sorry to dissapoint you Nico.
lynnzgal - July 25, 2008
Ooh..I'm sorry.
I got punched in the head, but it was to the temple so it left no mark…only this addled psyche.
oblique - July 25, 2008
No worries.
We actually made up in the girls bathroom in our senior year. The dimple is cute.
lynnzgal - July 25, 2008
That's not at all how my story ended.
oblique - July 25, 2008
I'm sure.
Leopold Bloom - July 25, 2008
I didn't read "up" in my first pass through this
monkeyball - July 26, 2008
I tuned in just in time to see Ziggles let the run score
And was very sad, until the announcers (FINALLY) said it was credited to Blevins. After that, I was just happy we scored 5 runs.
nevermoor - July 25, 2008
I guess I left almost at the right time - right after it got to be 8-5
I’m just glad I got to see Ziggy tie the Major League record, even if he allowed the inherited runner to score. At least, all those runs in the 9th made it a little easier to stomach him giving up the run.
Still planning on going to the rest to see him hopefully break it.
Flashfire - July 25, 2008
At least we got exciting players
exciting for us:
Zippy ERA Ziggy
Patrol Craft
Slutty Sweeney
exciting for the other team:
Alan “no game I can’t give away single-handedly” Embree
Jack “best contact-less swing in the league” Kust
asfansince1989 - July 25, 2008
Ugh!
Hard to watch.
lynnzgal - July 25, 2008
Just don't watch the score
And have about 5-6 shots lined up, one for each time Cust hits, and Embree pitches
asfansince1989 - July 25, 2008
If Embree faced Cust, would the universe explode?
Nico - July 25, 2008
the unavoidable pitch vs the unhittable bat
asfansince1989 - July 25, 2008
HBP
It’s the only way out
MobiusKlein - July 25, 2008
Maybe a walk
Nico - July 25, 2008
A brisk 30 minute walk
oblique - July 25, 2008
ooooh
that’s another thing. I like to walk a lot, right? It’s almost impossible to go outside here in the summer. IT’s too damn hot.
Leopold Bloom - July 25, 2008
Come home soon.
I walk all the time along Crown Beach.
lynnzgal - July 25, 2008
that is one thing they have in common
asfansince1989 - July 25, 2008
I know!
Wild pitch strike out.
Cust Gunned down at second after baserunning gaffe.
MobiusKlein - July 25, 2008
one second though
how ‘bout we get them to go for a walk in the woods… with Guido
asfansince1989 - July 25, 2008
Will it ever be defined
Is that what a severe late career decline and indication of retirement called these days?
If we’re getting younger, let’s make it official—DFA Embree!
oaklandSMASH - July 25, 2008
DFA?
or cut?
lynnzgal - July 25, 2008
trap door
oaklandSMASH - July 25, 2008
falling anvil
oaklandSMASH - July 25, 2008
chopsticks on piano
with one key attached to a dynamite fuse
oaklandSMASH - July 25, 2008
painting a tunnel
with a real train barreling though
oaklandSMASH - July 25, 2008
Is he an organ donor?
Nico - July 25, 2008
I was honestly expecting Pucking Insane to reprimand me on my posts
I can hear him now:
“If you think a player should be blown up by dynamite, tricked into holding a baby made out of acme bombs, or left holding a gun with a cork placed on the barrel—then you are a loser!”
oaklandSMASH - July 25, 2008
"Hi,
I represent a company by the name of Acme, and I think we should do business together.”
Leopold Bloom - July 25, 2008
Damn you, acme!
You killed my mother (with rocket boot skates that shot off the cliff) and my father (with a boxing-glove-extender-in-mallet misfire)!
Both were proud coyotes!!
oaklandSMASH - July 25, 2008
"I'm sorry, sir, but
our indemnity clause is quite clearly labeled on the box:
“Once item is purchased and/or removed from showroom, and/or removed from box and/or used in any fashion whatsoever, the manufacturer has no liability whatsoever nor are any guarantees or claims made upon said product valid. Note: void in Botswana—product not for use in Botswana, near small children, or web site moderators with penchant for goats.”
Leopold Bloom - July 25, 2008
You guys have a showroom?
How haven’t you died yet?
oaklandSMASH - July 26, 2008
send the black cats
asfansince1989 - July 25, 2008
To find the orange one
Nico - July 25, 2008
So if I understand you correctly, Nico
We have reverted to that byegone era of…
(Sorry if this conjurs up unhappy memories ;)
PortlandPachyderm - July 25, 2008
How did you find my yearbook picture?
Nico - July 25, 2008
You'd be amazed at what you can find on that "Internet thingy" these days.
PortlandPachyderm - July 25, 2008
How do you think I found the goat in the first place?
Nico - July 25, 2008
I guess I was under the impression
that the goat found you.
PortlandPachyderm - July 25, 2008
What's the difference whether I answered an ad,
or posted flyers on every side of every barn West of the Mississippi?
Nico - July 25, 2008
I'm guessing
prolly none, but we sill love you.
lynnzgal - July 25, 2008
*still
lynnzgal - July 25, 2008
Zig on the comcast recap
We still love ya, zig!
oaklandSMASH - July 25, 2008
Except when you're pitching to Ian Kinsler -
next time I want notsellingjeans – Kinsler.
Nico - July 25, 2008
What did he say?
ZigFan31 - July 25, 2008
He just wanted to take the RBI pitch back
and he was going to look at the tape.
Regular pitcher stuff
oaklandSMASH - July 25, 2008
Thanks.
My feed cuts out right after the game. I never get the post game. :-(
ZigFan31 - July 25, 2008
If anything, Zig had the "much more I need to work on to stay with it" look
oaklandSMASH - July 25, 2008
That's good to hear. :-)
ZigFan31 - July 25, 2008
I hate this team...
No… I really do.
FoolshGame22 - July 25, 2008
We know.
lynnzgal - July 25, 2008
You should make a fanpost about that
monkeyball - July 26, 2008
Don't encourage him
nevermoor - July 26, 2008
He went and did it anyway
PaulThomas - July 26, 2008
Tryouts
The A’s should hold tryouts in the Bay Area and guarantee at least one roster spot on the 25 man roster. Are you telling me there’s not one guy in the bay that could replace Conrad? Or Brown? Or Hanrahan? It would be a great promotion and maybe sell a few seats – hell I would pay to tryout and they could do it as a fundraiser to get some money to actually sign someone in the offseason.
DC Athletics - July 25, 2008
Like a 30yr old bartender...
SwisherThresher - July 25, 2008
Along with Hannahan?
Bad idea.
Nico - July 25, 2008
Or marky mark
oaklandSMASH - July 25, 2008
what about the funky bunch?
Won’t they feel left out?
Leopold Bloom - July 25, 2008
No
The A’s offense it funky enough as it is.
oaklandSMASH - July 26, 2008
The N and the C aren't remotely near each other on the keyboard dude
Did anybody get it? sigh
Gallagher's Watermelons - July 26, 2008
I did
but is that even a word?
i suppose with the ‘08 A’s it is
oaklandSMASH - July 26, 2008
oops typo
Hannahan not Hanrahan
DC Athletics - July 25, 2008
I think the last week+
has seen me go from asking “WTF?”...
to remembering that this year was never really “expected” to produce a contender.
Yes, we were teased for the first 3+ months, and It’s tough to swallow this terrible play that’s caught up with our
offenseteam, but I still have quite a bit of hope for the not-too-distant future.If W.L. Beane has a plan, then as long as running a baseball team remains second fiddle to his fútbol fetish, we should be in good shape. Right? RIGHT?
PortlandPachyderm - July 25, 2008
Well, one reason Cactus League games are meaningless predictors
is that the game is often decided when at least 1/3 of the lineup isn’t guys who will be on the team anyway. The 2009 team will not have Conrad, Hannahan, or Emil Brown in the lineup (I hope). So these games really aren’t a great predictor of next year’s success or failure.
Nico - July 25, 2008
Thanks Nico
For being there when I don’t want to be.
Things for the A’s have not been a bed of roses but at least Gallagher was able to pitch effectively until he got run support…
Hit4TheCycle - July 25, 2008
He may have been too stunned to recover -
He’s used to trying to match the number of runs the A’s just scored, so it was probably just force of habit.
Nico - July 25, 2008
That, and only 1 run was earned
So you can’t blame him too much.
nevermoor - July 26, 2008
Apart from the "that scoring is utterly preposterous" part
Again, when you give up like 6 more hits in the inning after an early error…
Gallagher did not pitch well yesterday at all. The Rangers were hitting line drives all over the place.
PaulThomas - July 26, 2008
In fairness, the Rangers are a pretty talented offensive team
I didn’t see him pitch, but it appears that but for Conrad’s throw he’s out of the inning with 1 run given up. If that’s wrong then the official scorekeeper messed up.
nevermoor - July 26, 2008
The official scoring was fine - it was just like
Duke in Anaheim. Several unearned runs, but he pitched worse than the ER line would suggest.
Nico - July 26, 2008
Haha! Yeah.
How often does that happen? Night y’all!
lynnzgal - July 25, 2008
Dan Meyer's line tonight:
8 IP, 5 hits, 2 ER, 3 BB, 2 K (106 pitches, 62 strikes). Not as stellar as his previous two starts, but still solid.
Nico - July 25, 2008
are you kidding?
he’s had two starts better than that line?
closetasfan - July 26, 2008
Yes - last night was 3 BB, 2 K
but prior to that he had an 8 IP, 0 ER, 0 BB, 8 K outing and another similarly outstanding one.
Nico - July 26, 2008
Is there some reason we're giving starts to Braden?
Unless he’s doing it with pure smoke and mirrors, it seems like our stud pitcher from the Harden deal is arriving
nevermoor - July 26, 2008
You mean Hudson deal, and yeah I'd like
to see what Meyer could do for two months before he is out of options.
Nico - July 26, 2008
Right, my bad.
nevermoor - July 27, 2008
I thought he meant the Swisher deal
WaddellCanseco - July 26, 2008
I don't think so - the comment is right after
my chronicling of Meyer’s recent success.
Nico - July 26, 2008
Why isn't he getting another shot?
Seriously, put him in instead of Craig Smith or Dana Eveland. I know we have to be patient, but it would be nice to go for a free agent hitter who we could keep for a while, not someone like Frank Thomas or Mike Sweeney who are broken down. It makes me sick that the Stankees got Xavier Nady, but I like that they gave up all those prospects. Ugly game tonight. Hopefully Duke can win tomorrow and get us back into 2nd place. Go A’s!
A'sfansince1970 - July 25, 2008
GREG Smith is awesome
I love pickoffs.
With onions.
Gallagher's Watermelons - July 26, 2008
GIARC!
iglew - July 26, 2008
missed Buan's show...any listeners who
caught some of the chat?
ak_A - July 25, 2008
Think of it as a Pythagorean correction
PaulThomas - July 25, 2008
I actually thought of that
whilst the Rangers were piling on in the 9th.
Leopold Bloom - July 25, 2008
Bitter meet sweet
Tonight’s game exemplified everything that I love and everything that drives me crazy about the A’s better than any game that I can immediately recall. On the one hand there was the third inning. Bobby’s AB was a thing of beauty and it was a lot of fun to be in the bleachers when Brooks’ single fell in. I knew, of course, that the game was a long way from being over, but it still felt, after a shaky beginning from Gallagher, that we had claimed the momentum and would be able to ride it out.
Um, yeah, that didn’t work out so well. By the time Blalock scored in the ninth, the bleachers were as devoid of energy as I’ve ever seen them. Hell, the coliseum, as a whole, felt more annoyed and just plain angry than I’ve ever felt it. (And that includes A Game That Shall Not Be Mentioned.) It was honestly a bit stunning, but then, maybe it just surprised me since I’m more inclined to mope than lash out when it comes to the A’s.
Still, as dispiriting as the end result was, I’m glad I was there. The fact that I was able to usher my friends, Will and Renata, into the Nation went a long way into making the night an enjoyable one. It always makes me smile to be with people taking in their first Major League game and to have my experience tonight involve two good friends only made me smile wider. Now if only they could have been treated to a win.
Wes7 - July 25, 2008
just got in
and was about to watch the game, but after reading this, I think I’ll just skip it and watch the highlights.
sf drift king - July 25, 2008
I highly recommend the bottom of the third.
Avoid both the top of the fourth and the top of the ninth, if you currently enjoy any level of serenity.
Leopold Bloom - July 25, 2008
Now is a good time
To buy MiLB TV.
Oh, there isn’t a sale. But it’s more uplifting than watching this. I leave the house and it’s 4-0 A’s. I get to the restaurant and it’s 5-5? I leave the restaurant and it’s 6-5 Rangers. I get home and the final is 14-6.
I need a drink.
Gallagher's Watermelons - July 26, 2008
This is just my opinion
but it looks to me like several players have already mailed it in … Jack Cust has gone from “well, we’ll take the strikeouts that come with the power” to “I’m embarassing myself everytime I swing the bat”.
With hitting coaches, batting cages, and film rooms, how the hell do you not get better? In fact, it seems to me that he’s gotten worse. If you put the ball on a tee for him - just like Little League - Jack Cust would still strike out at least once a game. He’s that friggin’ awful.
Vacafan - July 26, 2008
Cust has been unbelievably bad....he looks like he has no idea what he's...
doing when he’s at the plate. The K’s are piling-up and his walk rate is down. He’s turned into a 2/3 (K) – 1/3 (BB) guy – not much else in between. I think it would do him some good to sit a few games so he doesn’t completely lose his confidence. I never been a huge fan of this guy, he had 2 or 3 great months, but beyond that he’s been average to below average. I appreciate OPS, but on the 07 & 08 teams it doesn’t matter how many times you get on because nobody is driving you in. On a good team his skill would be useful as a 7th-place hitter, but hitting 4th or 5th on a bad team serves no purpose. His OPS is below .800 and continuing to slip…let’s hope he figures it out and proves he’s part of the team’s future – if not, maybe it’s time to move on from the Jack Cust experiment.
athleticsBB4life - July 26, 2008
This month is 39 K's in 66 at bats
That is flat out unacceptable.
Just my opinion but match him up against any Ace pitcher and he gets owned.
He cannot hit breaking stuff and many a fast ball gets by him.
The home runs are great but they are few and far between.
If we had a healthy team and he was hitting in the 6 hole, it would be fine but we don’t, and we are not contending but even so, it is still pretty pathetic to see him look this bad at the plate
I know alot of people here don’t care about the fact that he K’s often but as an example, just imagine if say a healthy Mike Sweeney had every one of his 66 at bats. There no doubt would be about 30 K’s less and more production.
Trainman - July 26, 2008
Also
I do not think Cust is mailing it in.
He is just flat out lost at the moment. That is all
Trainman - July 26, 2008
Cust's had a terrible month. But it's just a terrible month.
I’d need to see another terrible month before I’d do anything about it.
WaddellCanseco - July 26, 2008
He's had a terrible month 75% of the season
Flashfire - July 26, 2008
The positive from last night's game
With our dreadful offense we somehow put up 6 runs. If we did that in every game we’d be sitting around 75-27….
itsgemme - July 26, 2008
Mailing it in
It appears to be part of the statman canon that players do not “mail it in.” They are professionals, therefore they ALWAYS either rise or fall to the occasion no matter what the situation of the team, where they are in the batting order, what the score is, etc etc. As a human being, I don’t buy it, not one bit. Players and teams do respond to outside stimuli because they’re human beings. Trading away 2/5 of the rotation and writing off the season, I’d think, affects everyone on the team. Excitement breeds quality work, success usually builds on success, and I don’t care what field you’re working in. You can’t quantify these kinds of intangibles because..well..they’re intangible, and they vary person to person, team to team, moment to moment. The free fall of the past week, I think, is directly attributable to Beane/Forst’s decisions, and not simply to “regression to the mean.”
The A’s may or may not snap out of their funk. They may or may not have been able to keep it up if the trades hadn’t happened. But my feeling is they lost it when the trades happened, and it will be very very hard to get it back - whatever “it” is.
Also —only parenthetically -- regarding Alan Embree. Veteran relievers have up years and down years, and after a couple of up years, a down year is to be expected. Relievers with a handful of down years in a row unexpectedly have a couple of up years. Alan Embree was brilliant last year. Beane should have traded him over the winter. I was really hoping he would. Embree’s 2008 season is unsurprising.
richwol1 - July 26, 2008
Please identify the specific players and in-game plays that you feel are a result of this supposed losing miasma
monkeyball - July 26, 2008
I am a robot
I am not a human being. Nothing affects me. bzzzz bzzz bzzz
richwol1 - July 26, 2008
OK. I win.
monkeyball - July 26, 2008
It's not specific plays that prove it, Monkey
It’s a general team-wide deflation. I not only agree with richwol1, I think it was predictable.
Nico - July 26, 2008
so, did you predict it?
And how is Gallagher having one bad inning, Conrad showing a combination of rookie nerves and unimpressive fielding skilz, Embree continuing to suck, and Brown continuing to look bad a “team-wide deflation”?
I don’t necessarily dispute the thesis out of hand—it’s just if you’re going to say it, you need to back it up with some evidence and call out the players who have 98th percentile baseball skills but 33rd percentile wills.
monkeyball - July 26, 2008
If it's that important to you, yes I actually did
predict both a 1-5 road trip out of the ASB and the team tanking in general following the Harden/Blanton trades. It seemed inevitable that when you pull the rug out from an overachieving team you will see a “double regression” – one part skill to one part spirit.
Nico - July 26, 2008
what's more ...
... what, exactly, constitutes (or is even the worth of) a “prediction” that has no real conditions of assessing its truth or falsity?
monkeyball - July 26, 2008
I'll bite
But please let me preface my comments by saying I’m not sure ... like mentioned above, this is something that cannot be proven .. I can only go by what it looks like to me.
1. Jack Cust has gotten worse. It really looks like he doesn’t even give a damn anymore. Why? Because he doesn’t show one sign - not one - of making adjustments and/or working on his game. He’s embarassingly bad. Not kinda bad. Not sorta bad. He’s become the little kid on the T-ball team that you would pay a million dollars to see get one hit - just one, measly hit - because you feel so bad for him and his parents. Just flat-out, no excuse, AWFUL.
2. During Texas’ 5-run outburst yesterday - was Gallagher visited one time? I don’t think so. I don’t even think Suzuki went out there. I could be wrong, I can’t remember for sure - but it looked to me like the coaching staff said, “Aw hell, just let him go … see if he can get out of it … we got nothing to play for anyhow.”
3. How does Kurt Suzuki not score on the single into left by Gonzalez? Just absolutely horrific baserunning—no, make that LAZY-ASS baserunning.
4. Did Alan Embree get a visit during his inevitable implosion? Again, you think maybe Curt Young could trot out there one time and say something like, “Please Alan, not again … can you get anybody out anymore?!”
These are just some examples from last night … again, I have no idea if anyone has “quit” or not. I do know that it certainly looks like the team has quit, in general. Body language sucks, hustle sucks, just one horrible “effort” after another.
Vacafan - July 26, 2008
A couple things
1) Cust has always been like this, for better or for worse. For whatever reason, it seems even the A’s aren’t asking him to change.
2) Gallagher was visited, yes. By Suzuki and later by Young.
3) I’m not sure because I was watching the ball drop and the run score, but I don’t know if Suzuki had to hold up at all just in case it WAS caught. Hard to say.
4) Beats me. I left after the homer that made it 8-5.
Flashfire - July 26, 2008
Suzuki scored anyway
As for Cust, I have accepted the utility of his streaky hitting approach—specifically, he’s a player who can weed out the people who have some idea of what they’re talking about from the ones who do not.
PaulThomas - July 26, 2008
I disagree about Cust
He’s little more than a storied power hitter who walks a lot, but he’s actually not that good a hitter overall. The walks would be nice if he played for a team that was better at taking advantage of him getting on base, but when it comes to pure hitting ability he is sorely lacking.
Don’t mistake having a good eye for being a good hitter when he’s pretty incapable of actually hitting well for long, long stretches of time.
Flashfire - July 26, 2008
People who are anti-Cust are not all people
who don’t know what they’re talking about. He is an .800 OPS guy who can carry a team when he’s hot. He’s also a .220 hitter incapable of making adjustments when he’s stone cold – which is more than half the time. Ultimately, he’s a very good #6 hitter who is a very poor #3 hitter.
Nico - July 26, 2008
I think you summed it up pretty well there Nico
Trainman - July 26, 2008
Agreed
And I wouldn’t call myself anti-Cust. I just see him for what you just summed up: a very streaky hitter who’s solid when hot, absolutely horrible when not.
There’s little in-between with him.
Flashfire - July 26, 2008
I'm not "anti-Cust", either.
I’m anti-anybody who has no clue what he’s doing. We need to remember that simply because some of us point out shortcomings in a player doesn’t mean we don’t “like” the guy. Cust may be a great person - but that’s completely beside the point. When I criticize someone, it isn’t personal.
Jack Cust is a horrible hitter. “When he’s hot” very rarely happens. Very. rarely. “When he’s cold” is most of the time. A lot of the time. All the time.
And he doesn’t get better …. someone explain this to me …. how is it possible to work hard at your game - study, pracitce, study, practice—and not get better? I’ll answer for you. It isn’t possible. If you work hard at something, you will get better. It may not be much, it may barely be measurable. But you will get better. Jack Cust has gotten worse. I’m just sayin.
Vacafan - July 26, 2008
A career 127 OPS plus is worse than who exactly on the A's?
Anyone? Anyone?
If Cust is a “horrible hitter”, what does that make Suzuki, Barton, Ellis, Crosby, Hannahan, Sweeney and Gonzalez?
WaddellCanseco - July 26, 2008
A combination of very young hitters,
very poor hitters, and a unicorn.
Nico - July 26, 2008
Hee
WaddellCanseco - July 26, 2008
perfect answer
OaklandSi - July 26, 2008
It doesn't matter how the others on the team are
We’re talking about Jack Cust. When people are trying to act like a guy batting .223 and has stunk for 75% of the season is somehow all right just because he walks a lot and has twice as many homers as anyone else on the team when that number is 18 in 97 games, that doesn’t say a whole lot about his competition.
Jack Cust has not had a good season. How this could even be up for debate, I don’t know. It’s not his fault everyone else around him aside from Ryan Sweeney and Kurt Suzuki can’t hit for crap and it’s not his fault the offense is bad enough that he has to bat third in a weak lineup, but it doesn’t change the fact that he’s really struggled this year. All of his key offensive stats are down compared to the pace he set last year and his strikeout rate is up while his walk rate is down.
He’s also had 15 games this year with 3+ strikeouts, 4 of those with 4 in a game. Last year he struck out 4 times in a game only twice and had 3 strikeouts 12 times. In 27 fewer games this year he’s already passed those ugly strikeout games. If you need it broken down by percentages, last year he had 3+ strikeouts in 11.3% of his games (14/127). This year it’s already at 15.5% (15/97). If you have a slugger striking out that much, he’d better be homering a lot more than once every 5.4 games.
Ryan Howard may not hit for average, strike out a lot and walk less, but at least he’s homering once every 3.4 games this year, which is just under his career rate of once every 3.2 games. Cust’s career rate is a shade under once every 6 games but it was helped by his rate of once every 4.8 games last year.
A career 127 OPS+ is nice but it’s down to 120 this season from last year’s 147. If he was still at that level we wouldn’t be complaining nearly as much. Even Howard’s OPS+ this year is only at 110, though is career is still 142. I’m not trying to say Cust should be hitting as many homers as Howard does, but with all this talk of Cust being such a power hitter he needs to do more than he is this year.
Whatever the case, Cust is not having a good year.
If you think these criticisms are unfair, just imagine if I hated him.
Flashfire - July 26, 2008
Cust is having a 120 OPS+ year
(as you yourself mentioned). That means he’s been significantly above average. 120 will never lead the league (lowest AL leading OPS+ is 144 by Snuffy Stirnweiss in 1945, recently its more like 160-175). It does, however, demonstrate a good offensive year.
Strikeouts are bad, low average is bad, high OBP is great.
I can understand why people come on here with the “he’s only hitting .220, he sucks!!!!!1 LOL” argument, but I don’t see how you can cite his OPS+ and say he’s having a bad season and is not all right.
nevermoor - July 27, 2008
The only reason the OPS+ is at 120 is because he walks a lot
Again, it doesn’t mean he’s having a good year. Anyone who watches him can see he isn’t.
Note I said watching him. Stats don’t always tell the entire story.
Flashfire - July 27, 2008
Neither does watching him
a lot of walks is valuable (although more valuable on a team where there’s a chance you’ll be driven in).
Basing your opinion on unscientific observation “he looks bad” or “he always looks bad” or “75%” of the time he looks bad is substantially less accurate because you’ll remember the times he doesn’t produce (more than 60% for all but 58 players in the history of baseball, Ted Williams’ 0.482 career OBP is the best and he still failed more than half the time) and ignore the times he doesn’t.
Basically, I’m convinced my stats trump your selection bias.
nevermoor - July 27, 2008
Let me put it to you this way
For someone who walks as much as Cust does, his OBP should be much higher than the .370 it is this year, which is only good for 19th in the AL. Last year his .408 OBP was good for 7th by comparison.
Looking at the Top 10 in the AL for walks this year, and their OBP, we have the following (I’d use the ‘pre’ tag but it wouldn’t leave enough room to show all the numbers):
Player BB OBP AVG DIFF OPS
Jack Cust 73 .370 .223 .147 .793
B.J. Upton 67 .378 .269 .109 .771
Nick Swisher 64 .353 .231 .122 .756
Nick Markakis 64 .393 .291 .102 .870
Jim Thome 62 .384 .256 .128 .894
Milton Bradley 62 .436 .308 .128 1.015
Grady Sizemore 61 .378 .273 .105 .917
J.D. Drew 59 .401 .287 .114 .955
Lyle Overbay 57 .377 .273 .104 .779
Joe Mauer 57 .415 .320 .095 .873
Of those Top 10 players, he has the largest difference between OBP and AVG, and only one player (remember Nick Swisher?) has a lower OBP than he does. Swisher’s OPS is also the lowest of the Top 10 among walks, thanks in large part to his own dismal .231 AVG.
I think this is proof enough that just walking a lot isn’t enough. You have to be a good hitter for average as well. Cust and Swisher are not and that’s a big reason they stand out so much here. With the exception of Thome, everyone else on this list is hitting about .270 or better, a good .050 higher than Cust.
You can take your 120 OPS+ and say Cust is fine if you want. Most of us know he’s not.
Flashfire - July 27, 2008
Most of you are being irrational then
If he had a higher batting average he’d be better. Yes. I concede this point (obviously). If he hit .273, maintained his AVG/OBP differential and his AVG/SLG differential he’d be one of the best players in baseball (.273/.420/.474).
Simply because he isn’t one of the best players in baseball doesn’t make him bad. He’s the best hitter on the A’s (and comfortably above average amongst all of his peers).
Finally, being 19th highest OBP in baseball is a good thing not a bad thing. He’s worse than last year (by 27 points of OPS+) but he was fantastic last year so that means he’s just good this year.
As to the point you’re making with your list, I’m not saying he’s better than Sizemore/Bradley this year. I’m saying he’s a good hitter and miles away from stinking.
If he didn’t walk and didn’t hit for power, you’re right that he’d stink. Fortunately for the A’s he does those things.
nevermoor - July 27, 2008
Here. This works a little better.
And you can call “selection bias” all you want. I’m actually making a valid comparison to others who walk a lot to prove most of them are much better at getting on base in other ways than Cust is.
Flashfire - July 27, 2008
One more thing
The OPS+ for those 10 players this year?
Cust is 7th of those 10. Make of that fact what you will, because without those walks Cust is nowhere near being in this group (again, neither is Swisher for that matter).
Flashfire - July 27, 2008
And I can't find a full list of OPS+ leaders...
...this year in the AL, but the current Top 10 range from 141 to 170. Checking Baseball Reference further, of those with 275+ AB for the year there are 22 others in the AL with a higher OPS+ than Cust’s 120.
I chose 275 because it looks like the current total ABs to qualify for most league-leading stats is about at that point.
I’m off to the game, so have fun with this if you really want to.
Flashfire - July 27, 2008
So he stinks because he's ranked 22 in the league in OPS+?!?!
Since there are 14 AL teams, that means he’s likely to be the best on several teams (A’s included).
You define “stink” extremely liberally, if that’s the cutoff.
nevermoor - July 27, 2008
If you search for "stink" you'll find I never said that.
I think the points I’ve made are very clear.
Flashfire - July 27, 2008
You're right, you said stunk. My bad
If a tense of stink argument is all you’ve got left my work is done.
nevermoor - July 28, 2008
Well, I missed that. I just searched for "stink" because that's what you said.
But yes, he has stunk for much of the season. The brief time he didn’t stink is the only reason he’s not much lower in many of his numbers.
Flashfire - July 28, 2008
By the way, currently Cust's career OBP of .382 would be good...
...for about 150th on that list.
If he was a better hitter, that figure could be so much higher.
Flashfire - July 27, 2008
So what?
He sucks because a better player would be better? That’s true of every baseball player to ever play the game.
nevermoor - July 27, 2008
Add Gonzalez to the list. I like how he's coming along.
And at least he’s not Hannahan, Ellis, Crosby etc. at the plate.
Flashfire - July 26, 2008
One other thing, because I just checked and it stands out a lot
Cust has 31 more strikeouts than the two hitters next on the list in the AL (Gomez of MIN and Pena of TB, both at 99 compared to his 130).
Ouch?
Flashfire - July 26, 2008
One legitimate concern about Cust is that
baseball is a game of adjustments and Cust is not a hitter who can, or should be asked to, make adjustments. You get what you get, which means that when he is stone cold he is a complete and utter liability – and unfortunately he is stone cold more than half the time.
The trouble even with batting him 6th or 7th all the time is that his high OBP only sets the table for the bottom of the order, so really his value is batting 2nd-5th when he’s hot and 7th, or maybe even 9th, when he’s cold. But you have to have other good power hitters on your team to be able to weather Cust’s cold streaks, so his value is heavily tied into others. Which lowers his “absolute value” in my eyes.
Nico - July 26, 2008
Why is a hitter who's Babe Ruth one month and Neifi Perez the next
month worse than a hitter who’s Ryan Sweeney every month?
WaddellCanseco - July 26, 2008
Because Ryan Sweeney is capable of
putting the ball in play early in the count with a man at third and one out, then working the count leading off an inning, beating out a bunt against a pitcher he can’t handle, pulling a pitch away from him to advance a runner to third when the count is 0-2 and he’s overmatched – and he can do all of that during a stretch where his swing is off and he’s in a slump.
Whereas Cust is a “stratomatic” player – no matter what the score, inning, or situation, you get a HR if you roll a 2 or 12, a walk if you roll a 3, 4, 10, or 11, a strikeout if you roll a 6, 7, or 8, and the very occasional single/double or out on a ball in play.
And during the stretches when he’s Neifi Perez, you have Neifi Perez batting 3rd in your lineup and there’s nothing either of you can do about it.
Nico - July 26, 2008
Excellent analysis
Anything referencing, “craps” with this team has to be right on the money. Now if only you can work in some innuendo with the, “come” line. Of course, that would probably involve the other team.
alox - July 26, 2008
I'm thinking Cust in the #2 spot might be better
You limit his futility in RBI situations, and you take better advantage of his walks. This also lets Sweeney do the things you describe.
2B Patterson
DH Cust
RF Sweeney
CF Gonzalez
seems like a good top of the order to me. I don’t care that they’re all lefties. If the pitcher is a righty, let’s worry about getting runs off him before we worry about late inning matchups.
WaddellCanseco - July 26, 2008
"team chemistry"
Does winning produce ‘team chemistry’, or does ‘team chemistry’ produce winning?
And for sure, anybody who has had more than one job knows that some places are buzzing with action, some are places you can skate. And it’s hard to quantify what causes the difference.
MobiusKlein - July 26, 2008
I'd go one further
I’d say that not only is it hard or even impossible to quantify the difference, but it’s hard to pin down any particular example of what that difference is. It’s the over all effect. We all have good days and bad days. When you’re constantly wondering which of your co-workers will disappear over the next couple of weeks and how it will affect your job, it DOES affect your job, in ways that are way too subtle to understand.
richwol1 - July 26, 2008
uh, there are entire business and academic disciplines devoted to quantifying those effects and outcomes
monkeyball - July 26, 2008
And most of them suck
richwol1 - July 26, 2008
But more to the point
Aside from the fact that a lot of those “business and academic disciplines” are plain voodoo —I’ve seen enough companies that actually get WORSE after management training seminars which are supposedly based on quantifiable behavior -- I was talking about how baseball players are affected by events within the baseball team. I know there’s the idea that AAAA players are working extra hard to stay in the big leagues, that these are pros. But I also know that these are mostly guys under 30 years of age and baseball is still a game.
richwol1 - July 26, 2008
"players are human beings who respond to outside stimuli."
here’s why I think these AAAA players aren’t mailing it in: they need jobs, jobs that pay exceedingly well for a few years if they perform well. there’s an outside stimulus for you, one that I’d bet would outweigh some imagined malaise related to the dread of impending trades and a sub-500 record.
skutch - July 26, 2008
Arroyo
Pitched for the A’s in 1982 in 10 games as well.
Just sayin’
Emmett89 - July 26, 2008
Barry Zito wishes this story was about his fastball
monkeyball - July 26, 2008
According to mlbtraderumors.com:
athleticsBB4life - July 26, 2008
I wish Keith Law had asked the Dodger sources that question
monkeyball - July 26, 2008
I see Casey Blake is now a Dodger
I typed in Ken Gurnick and Dodgers and up it came
Trainman - July 26, 2008
Santana and Meloan sounds like great haul for Blake, even if the Indians paid his salary.
I was hoping the A’s could be in on Santana.
WaddellCanseco - July 26, 2008
Watching this team....
makes me think that Blez’s on-line bar theme has become an on-line support group.
I’ll start. “Hi, my name is Alox….....
alox - July 26, 2008
It got pretty lonely there at the end of the game.
Fortunately, we didn’t have to wait at all to get out of the parking lot.
I must have had a presentiment of disaster after the bottom of the 3rd, because I took a picture of the scoreboard during that brief time when we had a 5-run lead. Didn’t know if I’d ever see something like that again.
The loudest cheers of the night? After the 3rd out in the top of the 9th, rivalled only by the cheers after the 2nd out in the top of the 9th. (Okay, well, it might have been louder when the A’s actually scored, but the silence-to-noise differential was much larger in the 9th.)
whiteshoes40 - July 26, 2008
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