UPDATE, 2:20pm PDT
RE TAILGATE LOCATION FOR AN DAY V: If you are coming to the AN Day festivities, we are now set up in the East side of Lot A, at the end of rows 12-14.
Hello AN, miss me?
Well, your vacation from lovable, furry me is over.
For now.
The A's have had a bit of a roster shake-up since last I visited and while this post will certainly touch on the recent trade I'm not gonna go all in-depth on a subject that has been ridden hard and put away wet. No, the nearly dead Staturday articles were meant to focus on the numbers... to use hard data and statistical analysis in an attempt to achieve a deeper understanding of the Oakland A's in particular and baseball in general. So today I'm going to ask you to do some heavy lifting while I'm off frolicking at AN Day V...
The A's have invested heavily in 5 guys currently in AA or above to play the 3 outfield spots in Oakland. Make that 6 guys if the A's sign Mark Ellis to an extension, thereby bumping Eric Patterson into the outfield mix.
How does that math work itself out?
I'm a stinker, aren't I? Asking a question like that and then making you jump to find the answer. Guess what! I'm not going to tell you the answer because I'm not sure what the answer is.
Travis Buck, Carlos Gonzalez, Matt Murton, Ryan Sweeney, Aaron Cunningham and maybe Eric Patterson. Any combination of the above group could be you starting 3 come Opening Day, 2009. Sure, the logjam is lessened if Ellis moves on and Patterson takes his place at 2nd base but I seriously hope the Oakland FO continues to work on an extension for Ellis. Patterson might be able to replace or even surpass Ellis' offense but defensively it's no contest... Ellis is the best in the AL and maybe all of baseball. Letting Ellis go because Patterson could replace him would be bad for the A's.
So let's assume that the A's do keep a player that most of us want to see stick around and thusly push Patterson into the OF mix. Eric has the skill set to maybe bat lead-off. Travis had a .851 OPS his rookie year. Gonzalez was the centerpiece in the Haren trade plus he's one of the most talented youngsters in the game, he's going to get plenty of chances. Murton has the most experience and bats right handed... the A's have leaned left for several years. Sweeney's played well this year and Cunningham looks to be ready for a chance by the start of next season.
Yikes.
So what's the answer? Well, if you had been paying attention to the top of the page you'd know that I don't have any answers! Although I admit to a buzzing in my brain that suggests a trade is on the way.
As for the whole trade thing that went down... I'll be honest with you. If someone told me the A's moved Harden for Gallagher, Donaldson and a warm body like Patterson I'd have thought that Beane had pulled off a Hell of a deal. Not quite Fucking-A quality but a definite plus. Two things bug me about the deal.
1) I don't think Murton will ever be more the an average corner outfielder, the kind of guy you're already looking to replace. I don't like Matt Murton.
2) If I see the deal as Harden for the 3 guys, then that must mean that I see the rest being Gaudin for Murton straight up. And I hate that view because Gaudin the SP is worth a lot more then Matt Murton. But Gaudin the bullpen arm (a Billy Beane creation, mind you) can only net Murton.
In my eyes the A's traded two SP and they did not get equivlent value in return. I understand Harden's health is an issue but the upside for the Cubs is two SP that they'll control for at least the next season and a half should they choose to spend the money. In that light I don't think the A's got a fair return.
But that subject has been beaten to death.
I'm off to Oakland to venture forth and mingle with the others who have left the sanctuary of their mothers' basements for the light that is the Coliseum. Today will also be my son's 1st baseball game. So have at it AN, let me hear whom you think will be the starting 3 outfielders in 2009. I won't be around to pick on you until Sunday.
Oh yeah... Go A's!
And baseballgirl rocks.
0 recs | 64 comments
I'm not convinced Buck is done
He really had one of the best, most level swings I’d ever seen last year. So, ideally I would like to see Buck, Gonzalez and Sweeney. Course then that makes your whole outfield left-handed.
Tyler Bleszinski - July 12, 2008
The difference with Buck this year
is that he was swinging wildly at EVERYTHING. He’s hitting well in AAA, but maybe, just maybe, he couldn’t/can’t handle the adjustment big league pitchers made to him.
sggut95 - July 12, 2008
Even if that OF works out
Murton is still a very valuable 4th OFer.
mrrickyg - July 12, 2008
Yep
I think it’s funny how his name kept coming up as someone we’d love to have until… well.. we got him.
nevermoor - July 12, 2008
It will be...
CarGon, RSweeney, and TBuck/ Cust. The first three don’t have enough power by themselves, so Cust will continue to be the left fielder/ DH when needed. I believe Travis will get healthy this offseason and then have a nice season next year.
crb29 - July 12, 2008
Ugghhh
I tried to just click ‘post’ and I had to refresh my browser to reset and then click preview, then post to get it to work. Sometimes I love new technology and sometimes I hate it.
crb29 - July 12, 2008
note on Murton:
I hadn’t seen him play until last night… what do the A’s see in this guy?
Good range, probably good OBP, but it seems like that’s it. His approach reminds me of a right handed hitting Hannahan, only he crouches even lower and is more closed at the plate. I don’t know how he ever hit for power that way. Cubs fans seem to be right about him hitting weak grounders to the left side of the infield. And it looks like he also has a Shannon Stewart ‘throwing’ arm.
Bleck.
On the future OF in general, I think the As are highest on Gonzalez and Sweeney. They should let Cunningham and Buck battle for that last position, though Cunningham may spend the beginning of 2009 at Sacramento anyway. I don’t think Patterson sticks there unless he learns to play a great CF. And that’s not so necessary if the OF is Sweeney/Gonzalez/Cunningham. Those 3 would be my preference.
rebus - July 12, 2008
Murton
One game = not enough.
He was, at best, mediocre defensively with the Cubs. He had an amazing defensive game last night, and I’m not sure if that was a fluke, if he’s improved, or if left field at Wrigley really is that difficult. But either one, one game isn’t enough time for me to change that original perception.
Murton is a couple years younger than Hannahan, and has hit for a much higher average. They’re really not comparable, except neither guy provides a ton of power. But you mention Murton’s lack of power as if he’s ever had any. He really hasn’t.
The weird thing about your post is you seem to be bringing up his known flaws, but you act as if these were supposed to be strong points and since they’re not, this is proof he’s no good.
thejd44 - July 12, 2008
What impressed me about Murton's defense last night
is that he has literally never played at the Coliseum. So kudos for that.
Nico - July 12, 2008
really?
I thought I had read somewhere that his defensive numbers were up there.
The Hannahan/Murton comp was more about approach – long swing, below average bat speed.
On the power, well, I thought I might see a little bit of it in his approach. I can understand how Ellis hits them out, but not Murton. I thought they had about the same power potential. And of course you’re right, one game’s not enough. But these were my initial impressions.
My post came out more sour than I wanted in general. I thought the A’s picked him up because they thought he was more than a league average left fielder, and I was disappointed when I couldn’t see that. That’s all.
rebus - July 12, 2008
Bankston vs Barton
Sending Bankston down and keeping Barton makes no sense. Bankston in his shorrt stint swung better, hit more balls to the outfield, and generally looked relax.
aerobicsman - July 12, 2008
Six of one...
.. half dozen of the other. I think maybe either guy is just keeping the seat warm for Sean Doolittle. Just promoted to Midland, and he’s got four hits in his first ten at bats. 21 years old, and he hit .305/.385/.560 with 18 HR in 334 AB in the CAL league. Seems at the outset to be the more prototypical corner infielder. Haven’t heard anything about his fielding, but if the guy keeps hitting, and Barton doesn’t, I figure the job’s his by 2010.
sggut95 - July 12, 2008
Doolittle
His Glove is awesome.
Colorado Fan - July 12, 2008
As I said on the minorleagueball thread about him,
I’m an agnostic on this newfound power stroke of his. I’ve seen what the CA league does to guys’ numbers. Remember what Brandon Wood did down there? And he looks like a bust at this point.
Not saying that Doolittle is Brandon Wood—I like him, don’t get me wrong—just sounding a note of caution here.
If he does make it to the bigs and produce, that then begs the question of where Barton ends up. I really don’t think the A’s are going to give up on him, but if they aren’t (and he doesn’t miraculously become adequate at third base) that pushes him into the outfield… where they have all these other dudes. I don’t think there’s a spot for him at DH.
Cunningham could probably make some use of one more season in the minors at AAA, but I think he’s basically big league ready at this point. I don’t see how he’s not strictly better than Murton—similar hitting but younger (hence more upside) and substantially better defense.
PaulThomas - July 12, 2008
Doolittle/Wood
One thing they have in common is a high strikeout rate. Doolittle struck out 99 times in 384 PA (26% of the time) at Stockton. That’s a lot. Wood was at 21% in the Cal league, and Dallas McPherson 24%, and both saw those rates go up as they moved to higher levels.
I don’t get bent out of shape about Cust’s strikeouts, because he’s proved that he can be productive in the majors in spite of them, but they are a big red flag for a prospect, partly because (as with Wood and McPherson) the problem often gets worse when they face better pitching, and partly because players with the combination of skills that Cust has are fairly rare.
andeux - July 12, 2008
My question would be, how does he handle breaking pitches?
If he’s striking out a lot on minor leaguers’ best offspeed stuff, he could easily be Graham Koonce when tackling the best junk major leaguers have to offer – because it’s a lot better.
Nico - July 12, 2008
What's interesting about him
is his numbers indicate a fairly radical change in approach. His Ks were pretty normal prior to this year, but he had no power and low babip, so it seems like the main thing is he’s swinging a lot harder this year. Perhaps he can improve his contact with more experience with that type of swing.
On the other hand, just looking at his numbers this year is not too promising, and the BBs really should be higher with all those Ks. I would probably bet on Chris Carter (as a hitter) at this point before Doolittle.
mikeA - July 12, 2008
Carter's exciting - he seems to be
improving his batting average without losing power. Given how young and raw he is, you can’t help but be a little excited – especially given the A’s lack of, and need of, power.
Nico - July 12, 2008
I was going to point out his seemingly very low LD rate
but then I checked a couple of other Stockton players, and they also appear to have BABIPs that are absurdly unsupported by their LD rates. Which makes me think that there is some serious noise in the data from that ballpark (or that league). Josh Horton has a 15% “LD rate” and a .372 BABIP. Doolittle’s “LD rate” is down around 12%, and he has a .390 BABIP. Jermaine Mitchell is more or less the same, and he’s not even having a good season.
That actually makes me feel a little better about Carter, as it’s probably the case that balls that would be considered liners in other parks are somehow being scored as fly balls in Stockton.
PaulThomas - July 12, 2008
Yes
http://firstinning.com/stats/?type=batting&min=245&lg=CALIF&season=2008&desc=ld_rate
Definitely different classification in that league.
mikeA - July 12, 2008
Defense also maybe?
I was at a AAA and the defensive level was pretty bad on a lot of balls the would be routine in the majors. I can only imagine how much worse it is in the lower minors.
mrrickyg - July 12, 2008
Where's the pop?
When are the A’s are going to wake up to the fact that the corner outfield spots are supposed to be where you place players with, you know, power? It’s pretty damning that precisely NONE of the six in the mix have decent power. I don’t subscribe to the theory that the power will come as they get older. Just don’t see it with this lot.
Don’t get me wrong, I really love CarGon and Sweeney and expect them to be the core of the A’s outfield for years to come. In fact I like pretty much all of them (even Murton) but we really need some bangers somewhere in the lineup – even one would be nice – so I would love to think that we’re looking for a power hitting left fielder. The farm is so stacked now that we’ve definitely got the trade chips to do it.
itsgemme - July 12, 2008
and Grover, shouldn't the title have a "don't" in it?
itsgemme - July 12, 2008
HR power is an overvalued commodity
And thus, the A’s can’t afford it.
You’re certainly right that we need some, but it’s going to have to come from unexpected/unreliable places (Big Frank as an example).
Hopefully one of our young guys will develop that way, but you need a lot of power to hit HRs reliably in Oakland, and not that many guys have that kind of power without PEDs.
nevermoor - July 12, 2008
Not really overvalued
Good HR power is rare and good HR hitters are always the most valuable hitters to have in a lineup for run creation. If there was a way to compensate for the lack of HR power of a lineup, Beane would have exploited it by now.
baseb3383 - July 12, 2008
agree on "not overrated"
HR power is certainly expensive, and it makes things much easier.
It’s kind of like owning a car (as opposed to rent/mortgage, which is an absolute necessity; the baseball equivalent is pitching; and, yes, that makes the Rangers homeless overpass trolls)—you can, if you arrange your life just-so, get by without it (and with occasionally paying a small one-time premium for a car-substitute such as a taxi or a rental).
monkeyball - July 12, 2008
er, duh: “not overvalued“
monkeyball - July 12, 2008
You're absolutely right that it's overvalued
Homers are, of course, the best possible thing you can do with an at bat. That doesn’t mean teams don’t place more value on that than it’s actually worth relative to other things. If the A’s could get a bunch of guys who hit 45 doubles a year, but only 15 homers, their offense would be drastically improved. I thought that’s what Buck would be. I think that’s what Sweeney could max out at. But right now, they’re not getting the power in any form (10th in doubles and homers). Crosby is the only guy with more than 17 doubles this year, and that’s a big reason why this team isn’t better offensively.
thejd44 - July 12, 2008
I think that's exactly right
there’s a difference between SLG and HRs (although, of course, a correlation). It’s very hard to score runs with walks and singles, it’s easy to score some runs with HRs and Ks (plus chicks dig the long ball), but you can get good offense with OBP and doubles.
HRs are nice, they’re exciting, and I wish we had more of ‘em, but I do think they cost more than they help the offense (even though they do help the offense)
nevermoor - July 12, 2008
A man can dream...
... and I’m not even wasting those dreams on a Carlos Lee or Pat Burrell type of LF’er but how about someone like Scott Hairston? He hits in a park that’s even worse than Oakland for hitters, he’s on a team that desperately needs some talent so should be willing to trade, and he’s not a superstar so the A’s might be able to pull it off.
itsgemme - July 12, 2008
Let's all welcome Mr. 311
He of 38 CAREER HR’s, SCOTTY HAIRSTON
mrrickyg - July 12, 2008
The outfield I see
LF Buck
RF Gonzalez
CF Cunningham
4th: Sweeney
5th: Murton
Even in his ‘good’ first full year, Sweeney hasn’t exactly put up awesome numbers. And he’s proved every bit as fragile as Buck did last year.
Zonis - July 12, 2008
Sweeney has an OPS+ of 112 and is 23 years old
And he’s showing development. The injuries are a concern, but other than that I think your criticism is pretty far off base. He’s 1 year older than Cunningham and producing in the majors. Cunningham is in double A.
thejd44 - July 12, 2008
And that was with a very slow start for Sweeney
He took forever to start hitting for extra bases, but since he’s gotten rolling, it’s been fun to watch.
Joey C. - July 12, 2008
My two favorite prospects:
Chris Carter: he started out crushing homers, but with a low average, but in June and July, he’s still hitting the crap out of the ball, but now with a .300 + average. The dude is raking. I think he has 24 homers on the year so far. He’s 21 and will undoubtedly be promoted very soon.
Landon Powell: I’ve always rooted for this guy since his various surgeries. He also started out slowly this year, probably because of lingering injury issues, but in July, he’s been clubbing the ball.
With these two plus Cunningham and Doolittle and Patterson (who’s started out well with us) and Donaldson and even Sulentic and others … we’ve got some real offensive prospects down there right now. I think 2009 or 2010, we’ll see most of those guys up with the big club, to go with Cahill, Anderson, etc.
Quick thing about Cahill: obviously the guy’s a stud. Everyone in baseball knows that. He might be an A or A- prospect now. Remember when Billy drafted him he was our first pick, but all the way in the second round? Nobody thought much of it in the national press … just a high school arm. But when Billy is the one doing the picking, he finds the gems. The guy really is the best GM in baseball, as if we needed more convincing.
Crosbino - July 12, 2008
Also, anyone who knows more about this than I do ...
Care to rank our top 10 prospects right now?
Crosbino - July 12, 2008
I'm going to do a midseason top 30 during the break...
Patience, grasshopper.
PaulThomas - July 12, 2008
You rock.
Leopold Bloom - July 12, 2008
OF
2010:
LF Ryan Sweeney
CF Aaron Cunningham
RF Carlos Gonzalez
4th/starter against lefties: Matt Murton
5th/DH: Jack Cust
How we get between here and there is up in the air, and mostly involves playing whoever is healthy. Rajai is the perfect complement to Cust, as long as Cust is in the OF, so he’s #5 on the list for now. Once we get 3 or 4 regulars in front of him, he is gone. Probably right around the time AC comes up.
I don’t know what is wrong with Travis Buck, but his recent struggles, and seemingly endless injury woes took him off this list. Although we seem to have a surplus at OF, I’d be willing to bet there aren’t more than a few games where someone isn’t injured or slumping. That being said, I don’t think they acquired Patterson to play the OF.
Mark Borgschulte - July 12, 2008
I don't understand why Cust neccesarily fits into these 2 year projections
He’s adequate right now with no alternatives, but really in 2 years Daric Barton will probably be a lot more productive and be being pushed by other 1B in the system to be moved to DH. Cust will be out of the mix by then…
mrrickyg - July 12, 2008
Sweeney has been everything we wanted..
but he still has no power. If it doesnt come then hes a 4th OF. If it does come then hes a border line All-Star.
Syphon - July 12, 2008
Welcome back, grover!
We’ve been eagerly awaiting your take on the trade all week, so I’m going to beat it a little more.
I think the way you describe it in your narrative is exactly how it played out. Harden for Gallagher + Donaldson + Patterson is probably exactly what Beane was looking for originally. All accounts agree that Hendry wanted Harden, but Beane insisted on Gallagher. For weeks Gallagher was deemed untouchable, but eventually Hendry gave in and said he could let go of Gallagher but it was going to take a another starting pitcher to get it done. Beane wanted to get it done, so that second pitcher became Gaudin, and then Murton was added to the other side to even it out again.
When you break it down into two pieces like that, I think you can clearly see a future and a present component. The first half, Harden for Gallagher, is for the future. Gaudin and Murton, I think, are more about right now. Whatever future Gaudin might have, we were getting very little value out of him right now. I don’t know why he got stuck in the bullpen as the sixth starter, but once he was there he was going to waste. Any value he has this year is more likely to be realized on another team than on ours. That made him marginally more tradable.
Murton, too, I think is about right now. As you’ve laid out, we’ve got a crowded outfield for the future, but at the moment we’re intermittently short-handed and sorely lacking in decent RH bats. Murton may not be great, but he’s very likely an upgrade as a bench outfielder for the rest of this season.
For this season alone, Gaudin for Murton makes our team better. Over the long haul, Harden for Gallagher-plus makes our team better. I think that’s the logic behind it.
iglew - July 12, 2008
I think this trade is going to
work out well for both clubs, very similar to the dbacks trade. harden is pitching a gem today. 8 k’s in 4 innings
TheGreenGoldCrush - July 12, 2008
That would be the best result.
I thought it was foolish to wish injury on Harden just for the sake of calling ourselves the “winner” in the trade. How does it make our team better if Harden sucks for the Cubs?
iglew - July 12, 2008
I'd agree
Even though I’m one of the people who said that Harden going down would make the A’s a “winner”. Doesn’t mean I wanted him to go down.
Hey, if the A’s improve the team for the future AND help the Cubs beat the Red Sox in the World Series, wouldn’t that be sweet?
eastcoasta'sfan - July 12, 2008
Plus everyone, from you and I to the Cubs,
knows Harden will go down eventually. We traded away having to suffer when that inevitably happens – the Cubs can afford it, we can’t.
Nico - July 12, 2008
If Harden were to go down right away
I would think it would actually HURT our club. Billy Beane already has a reputation. Harden pitching really will and making the Cubs better would help in future trades. Harden’s arm falling off and never pitching again before making his first start would have hurt future trades.
Bigtoe - July 12, 2008
I've taken issue with this idea before
So I’ll try to keep this one short. The return Billy got—and what he gave up, considering he traded Gaudin as well—are a direct reflection of Jim Hendry’s knowledge that he was very possibly trading for 1 start for the rest of the year. I don’t think Harden getting hurt would alter anyone’s perception of Beane. Everyone in the game knew Harden was a gamble, and you can’t be pissed at the house when you lose all your money. Well, you can, but Crusher and Low Blow might make summer homes for their fists in your pancreas.
Joey C. - July 12, 2008
So you interpret that buzzing in your brain
as meaning a trade is coming?
You go with that, grover – you tell yourself whatever you need to. It’s cool. ;-)
Faust - July 12, 2008
It's not a tumor!!!
grover - July 13, 2008
This weekend, Gallagher = Harden + Gaudin
Gallagher Fri: 7IP, 2H, 2R
Harden + Gardin Thur+today: 8IP, 7H, 1R
I say the trade is holding up well for both sides.
asfansince1989 - July 12, 2008
Harden's great start goes to waste
The Giants just scored 2 in the 8th and 5 in the 9th to tie the game.
thejd44 - July 12, 2008
My fear with Carlos Gonzalez is that the very momnet he breaks out and becomes the great player he is projected to be, the A’s will be in their last year of control and we walks else where and become a Hall of Famer. But i guess that goes with all young players though.
A'sfaninNC - July 12, 2008
My worry is that 4 walks in 138 at bats is a problem that never goes away
thejd44 - July 12, 2008
For all the "Harden is God" talk
Thats a very solid line (especially since he scattered the 8 baserunners and gave up no runs) but it’s hardly best in baseball. A WHIP of 1.5 is asking for trouble.
nevermoor - July 12, 2008
That's 5 hits on 11 balls in play
No wonder his WHIP looks bad.
PaulThomas - July 12, 2008
He looked good, though
The 5.1 IP is a problem, but he was dominant overall until he tired in the 6th.
Nico - July 12, 2008
as we've seen with RIch before,
completley dominant until one inning in the 4-6 where he gets knocked around a bit but usually limits any or all damage
TheGreenGoldCrush - July 12, 2008
Murton may only be league-average...
... but it certainly feels like it’s been a while since the A’s have gotten some consistent league-average offense and defense out of left field. I guess it’d be a stretch to call him the LFer of the future, but I think he’ll do just fine for now.
Gonzalez (barring injury) is a lock for one spot. I’d like to see Sweeney continue to improve on his power game and hold down RF, if for nothing else than I’m looking to invest in an authentic jersey, and he’s on the short list of candidates. And I will by God be pissed if I sink $200 in some schlameel who’s riding the pine, or worse yet, playing for another team.
RF – Sweeney
CF – Gonzalez
LF – Buck/Murton platoon (although I’m not sure Murton is long for this team)
Cust needs to DH, and effectively become the 5th OF. Emil Brown needs to stop playing baseball for Oakland. Rajai Davis needs to join the men’s relay team in Beijing and never pick a bat up again. Patterson has the bat for 2B and nowhere else. Please, dear Lord, let the A’s re-sign Mark Ellis.
It’s a lefty-heavy OF, but unless Cunningham really blows everyone away next spring, this seems the most likely scenario to me.
Joey C. - July 12, 2008
Consider the roster flexibility
of Cust as our 5th of. (starting dh)
with Patterson as our 4th of & backup 2b
then you take Murton in Left
Cgon in cf
Brown in right
this changes when Sweeney’s hand gets better
at that point if we can’t trade brown, we bring sweeney back & send Cgon down
connie mack - July 12, 2008
I hate work
but I love money!
I wish I was able to go to AN day :(
oaklandSMASH - July 12, 2008
For those concerned about Doolittle K's are you also concerned about Cunningham?
Why not Patterson at 3B? Even if he hits like Hannahan, at least he can run. My take:
LF Buck
CF Sweeney
RF Gonzalez
4th Murton (maybe Cunningham if he cuts his K’s)
DH Cust
3B Patterson/Murphy
SS Petit in for Crosby
1B Barton—he’s a lot more impressive than Doolittle or Carter at the same age.
Gonzalez should be in the minors as soon as Buck recovers from the concussion.
WaddellCanseco - July 12, 2008
Patterson has a crappy throwing arm
As such, he’s pretty much limited to 2B, 1B, LF or (stretching a point) CF.
PaulThomas - July 12, 2008
Irony...
My article was used to let people know that the location for the AN tailgate was moved to the East side.
Guess which ANer didn’t get the message and parked on the opposite side of the stadium?
Me.
grover - July 13, 2008
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