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Monday Mid-Morning Minors Musings

We're just about at the halfway point of the minor league season and many of the A's affiliates either clinched first-half playoff spots or came within a game or two of clinching. Here's the current situation:

Current Standings

Sacramento River Cats: 41-29, 1st Place PCL South Division

Midland Rockhounds: 33-35, 3rd Place, Texas League South

Stockton Ports: 42-28, 2nd Place for 1st Half Cal League North Division (just missed playoff spot by 1 game)

Kane County Cougars: 39-29, 2nd Overall Midwest League (clinched playoff spot)

Draft Update

The A's have now signed 18 of their 50 total draft picks, including 6 of their top 10 selections. Top pick Jemile Weeks is still competing in the College World Series while 4th rounder Anthony Capra is probably still recovering from his meltdown in the Super Regionals, so they should be signed fairly quickly once the tourney ends or when Miami gets eliminated. The other two top-10 round picks that have yet to sign, RHP Brett Hunter from my alma mater Pepperdine and OFer Tyreace House, might be more difficult to sign. Hunter began this year as a potential 1st rounder but quickly fell down draft boards after sustaining a shoulder injury. If the A's determine that Hunter is close to being 100-percent healthy, he is someone they should offer over-slot money to. He's a little raw as far as collegiate pitchers go, but as far as potential closers go, he's pretty solid: potential to hit 100mph with the fastball in addition to a nice curveball.

As far as the CWS goes, Capra got hammered in the elimination game of the Super Regionals after lasting less than an inning against Florida State back on June 8th, giving up 6 runs on 3 hits and 3 walks and was lifted after only 40 pitches. Hopefully, his professional career will start a lot better than his collegiate career ended. Weeks has been hitting very well for Miami as they march towards a national championship. In NCAA tourney action so far, Weeks is 8-for-27 (.296) with 5 RBIs, 6 walks against only 3 Ks and 1 homer.

 

Star-divide

Player Highlights

AAA: 3B Jeff Baisley (.871 OPS) & OF Danny Putnam (.848 OPS)

Baisley and Putnam have put up eerily similary stat lines so far this season (albeit from opposite sides of the batter's box) to anchor the RiverCat offense. Baisley has a .291/.378/.493 line so far this year with 8 homers and a nice 27/31 BB-K ratio. Putnam has a .271/.354/.494 line with 9 homers. Neither of these guys are top-prospects nor are they on the 40-man roster (translation: they don't have a bright future with the Big Club) however Putnam got his feet wet last season with the big club and didn't completely embarrass himself in his limited time, while Baisley has some pop in his righty bat, which is an attribute sorely missing in the organization. At the very least, both guys are nice to have as AAAA-insurance.

AA: RHP Vincent Mazzaro, 7-3, 2.29 ERA, 86.1 IP, 60K - 24BB

Sometimes minor league performances can be very flukey and vary wildly from year to year and sometimes, oddly, minor leaguers can perform better at higher levels than they do at lower ones for oftentimes inexplicable reasons. Enter Vince Mazzaro. Vince has been the only one of the many high school arms taken in recent drafts who has stayed completely healthy for his entire professional career. He has also, interestingly, shown some of the least amount of promise, until this year. In 2006 & 2007 Vince tossed nearly 275 innings between Kane County and Stockton, where he put up uninspiring ERAs above 5.00 at both spots. Yet, even though he struggled at those lower levels and was only 21 to start this season, the organization decided to move Vince up to Double-A regardless to start this season. The move has paid off. Vince is sporting career lows in ERA, WHiP, HR per 9, and Batting Average Against. His K/9 rate is still not amazing as he's only averaging about 6.28 strikeouts per game, but his walk rate is fairly low at 2.5 per game and he's kept the ball on the ground (56% Groundball rate) and in the park. He's getting better every month that goes by (2.79 ERA in April, 2.17 ERA in May, 1.80 so far in June) and he just chews innings as he's gone at least 6 innings in all but one of his last 10 starts and has pitched at least 7 innings twice.

Despite these encouraging trends and the fact that he's accomplishing them against older competition, it's unlikely that Mazzaro will ever develop into a front or even middle of the rotation starter in the major leagues. His stuff just doesn't overwhelm and his control isn't really all that great.  But regardless, Mazzaro has proven that he's a highly durable, improving pitcher that will generally keep the ball in the park and give the team a chance to win. Since he's still relatively young with some projectability left, he's an intriguing pitcher, but one I could see Beane part with if the right deal for a veteran bat came along.

A+: DH/1B/OF Chris Carter .230/.359/.481 (.840 OPS)

While Sean Doolittle and Trevor Cahill have grabbed most of the attention at Stockton this season, Carter has been steadily improving his game and could be in for a big 2nd half to the season. Carter's had an uneven beginning so far and it shows in his overall stat line. The raw power is still in full effect for Chris as he's blasted 15 homers on the season and has a strong Isolated Slugging Percentage of .254. However, he's well on pace to set a new career high in strikeouts as he already has 75 on the season and his batting a full-season career low of .230.  Carter's BABIP is partly to blame since it's a relatively low .274, but since his line-drive percentage is at a career low 7%, he's not giving himself a lot of chances to find the holes in the defense. Granted, Carter is a Custian-like all-or-nothing slugger, so you don't expect a lot of contact in his game, however, you'd still like to see an ability to hit for an even modest overall average.

Despite Carter's struggles making contact, he still has several good things going for him. For one, despite being a raw, high school product, Carter actually has drawn a fair amount of walks this season and actually sports a slightly better BB-K ratio than his ultra-polished, slightly-older and college-trained teammate Doolittle (Carter 45-75, Doolittle 39-77). He also finished the first half of the season on a mini roll, going 10-for-36 with a homer, 7 RBIs, 7/6 BB-K ratio and even a stolen base. He's also shown some defensive versatility as he started 6 of the last 10 games in right field after being primarily a 1B/DH for the past few seasons. If Carter can get his average up in the 2nd half of the season, keep slugging the homers and show that he can adequately handle a defensive position or two, he could turn himself into a very promising power prospect that could reach his considerable potential.

Low-A: RHP Charles Kerfoot, 2-0, 2.08 ERA, 21.2 IP, 3 Saves, 20-4 K-BB

With a great starting pitching staff but a typically-Oakland moribund offense, the Kane County Cougars play a lot of low-scoring close games where they call upon their bullpen to hold leads or close out games. In recent days the team has turned to the awesomely-named Kerfoot in those close game situations, and he hasn't disappointed. I don't know much about Kerfoot, but I'm liking what I'm seeing so far. He is a late-bloomer out of the University of Delaware where he played all four years and was a swingman for the team, putting up fairly unimpressive numbers until his senior season where he put up a 3.24 ERA and 1.09 WHiP with a 7+ K/9 rate in 75 innings. He then got drafted and signed in the 30th round by the A's and went to short season Vancouver last season where he put some solid numbers. In 36 innings, Kerfoot had a 3.47 ERA with a 37-8 K-BB ratio and a 9.17 K/9. He has carried that success over to Kane County this year, where his K/9 remains high (8.57), his walk rate remains low (1.71 per 9), while giving up less than a hit an inning, to give him a stellar .97 WHip, second best on a very good pitching team. Chad also seems to be more than just a one-inning reliever as he has gone multiple innings in relief in 7 of the past 10 games he's pitched, although he does have the ability to close out games, as evidenced by his 3 saves in 3 chances.

As a 30th-round draft pick, I don't believe that Kerfoot has "plus stuff" or a lot of upside, and he's definitely a little old for the Midwest League (23), but he gets guys out and he's a late bloomer who seems to have finally harnessed his stuff late in the development curve. He's a flyball-oriented reliever that might have trouble in say, the California League when he gets promoted, but he's worth watching as someone with a chance to make it as a decent middle reliever. There are probably a lot more exciting pitchers to watch in the A's system, but none with such a distinct name. So I'm pulling for him.

International Free Agent Signing Period Rumblings

On July 2nd the International Free Agent signing period begins and contrary to recent years, the A's are being mentioned as one of the primary movers and shakers in the sweepstakes for the top Latin American talent. Leading the INTL draft class is 6'7, 16 year old Dominican pitcher Michel inoa. Beane has reportedly made the trip to the Dominican to see Inoa first hand, and industry sources speculate that the A's are prepared to (gasp) potentially outbid the Yankees, Red Sox and any other rivals for his services. While the other clubs are willing to offer $3 million for Inoa, the A's are reportedly prepared to offer $4 million.

That the A's have allocated more resources to international scouting and signee bonuses was well evident earlier this year, but if these reports are true, it would take the A's commitment to Latin America to a new level. I, personally, would love to see the team make a statement by signing this guy for more than the Yanks and Sox, even though it's very high risk and we would probably not see the kid on a major league mound until the middle of next decade. He's supposed to be the real deal, and if Beane brings him into the fold, along with the rest of the 2008 draft class and the prospects from Haren and Swisher trades, you're talking about a seriously deep farm system that could pay dividends to the major league club for years to come.

Prospects in the News

Those Fightin' Ports- Last weekend, the Ports were involved in a nasty brawl with the Modesto Nuts . Reportedly, the fight began after little Matt Sulentic supposedly retaliated after getting plunked by trying to spike the Modesto 2nd baseman while breaking up a double-play. Benches and bullpens cleared and punches were thrown. Jose Fragoso, a reliever with the Ports, broke some cheek bones in the fight and will miss a majority of this season as a result. The Cal League levied suspensions on Ports players Sulentic, Jermaine Mitchell, Fragoso and Catcher Raul Padron as a result of the incident.

BA's Hot List Mentions Several Prospects- LHP Brett Anderson has popped back up at #6 on Baseball America's Hot List after coming back from injury to dominate Cal League hitters once again. However, Corey Brown and Henry Rodriguez also made the list under the "Not Hot" header.

 

1 recs  |  60 comments

Comments

ESPN = *sigh

Aww, how cute!

I read the article and it made me happy. Pete was my favorite player when I was 7 years old.

However, if what he truly wanted was to be back in baseball, how come he didn’t get back into coaching or managing in college or independent ball. I believe he was offered the Manager job with the Sacramento Steelheads of the now-defunct Western League back in 1996 or 1997, but he turned it down, supposedly because he thought it would make him look bad in the eyes of MLB to be affiliated with an “outlaw” league.

I think that Pete isn’t in love with the game; he’s in love with MLB. Otherwise, even a rockhead like Pete would realize that they’re never going to reinstate him, and the most he can hope for is to be elected to the Hall after he’s dead.

The reason Jack Cust is able to be successful at the major league level

is not his power (which is considerable) or his batting eye (Iikewise). Those are nice, but plenty of pure-power sluggers have fallen by the wayside before.

The reason he is able to be successful is his line drive rate. For his career, he has an LD rate of over 23%. It’s actually down a touch this year, but well within normal ranges.

Batters can hit the ball at a variety of launch angles, from choppers straight down to pop-ups straight up. Most of these are unproductive for most hitters. Cust has probably the widest spread of productive launch angles of any hitter in baseball, because he hits the ball so hard that many grounders get through the defense and many balls that would be easy outfield flies for most players become home runs. He also very effectively limits the number of balls he hits outside these launch angles (especially popups—caveat, FanGraphs’ statement that he has zero popups this season has to be some kind of error because I know he has a couple). Basically, he gets everything it is possible to get out of balls that he puts into play.

If Chris Carter has an LD rate that low, he is not going to mirror Cust’s success. He’s more likely to hit like Brandon Wood.

Then again, I suppose it was semi-statistically inevitable that one of the guys the A’s got for Haren would have a sucky season…

Carter's career LD% is about 10% higher than where he's at now.

Which is not in itself all that great, but promising. Not every slugger can be Jack Cust and Carter certainly never will be, but he’s a decent power prospect.

Great points with the LD% and its relation to production

I checked Richie Sexon’s, and sure enough, as his LD% plummets, so does his OPS

Sure, I'm not saying he has no future

But sometimes we can identify problems in a player’s approach from his LD rate. Or at least try to. (Coughbuckcough)

Carter seems to be trying too hard to hit homers (>60% fly ball rate). Maybe the team can work with him to move his swing plane a little bit higher to hit some of those balls on the nose instead of getting under them.

By contrast, Corey Brown’s problems appear to have come from swinging over the ball (almost 50% GB rate). This lines up with what we hear about him struggling to hit breaking pitches, because if the ball is lower than you “think” it’s going to be, you will tend to hit grounders.

Both of them are power prospects who’ve had uneven first halves, but the (theoretical) solutions are diametrically different.

Very interesting.

I was just about to look up Corey Brown’s LD%. He’s at 17% right now and between the two I think that Corey has the better chance to even-out his swing based purely on his athleticism, but that’s pure speculation. Hopefully they’ll both make the necessary adjustments to get their averages up.

My only source of minor league news

Thanks Taj!

brett anderson

anderson is now 3-0, 1.14 in 23 2/3 innings, 27k 1bb since returning.

rodriguez had a pretty good start since making the not hot list: 6 innings, 10k 2bb.

is baisley the reason jesus guzman is still in AA, and brooks conrad isn’t doing much, so can either one play 2b?

Guzman can play 2nd base.

No idea why he hasn’t been promoted yet. Although, there seems to be an organization-wide reluctance to promote guys this season. I read an interview with Farm Director Keith Lippman a few weeks back that indicated that with increased depth this year in the minors, the team is more likely to let guys play at one level all season and even dominate that level all season rather than rush them. While I understand that theory, you’d still like to see guys rewarded and/or challenged once they clearly master a level.

you'd think with mark ellis likely gone after this year

they would make an exception for guzman.

May be jumping the gun on Ellis being "gone"

Not sure the A’s have someone that can just fill those shoes…Anyone coming out in the free agent market?

Ellis and Hudson will be the best 2Bs available.
I sure hope the club keeps Ellis...

He really wants to stay, too.

Is 3yrs23m with vested option for a 4th year for 9m reasonable for either party?

i’m not sure how “likely gone” is jumping the gun on ellis being “gone”...

“might as well” see if guzman can handle
-2b
-AAA
“JUST IN CASE” ellis is gone next year.

also known as having a “contingency plan”....

"In the event the A's don't get Ellis an extension......"
All-Star games

probably play a role. I understand that teams often like to let their guys play at a level long enough to appear in the All-Star game as a reward for having a nice season.

Guzman, Italiano and Doolittle are guys I’d expect to move up after the respective All-Star breaks.

Agreed - but also Cahill
There's no real hurry with Cahill

Keep in mind he’s a year younger than Italiano, yet a level ahead.

Ditto with Brett Anderson (who also looks dominant once you remove his Lowry-esque “I can’t grip the baseball so everything I throw is a changeup” start). The team can afford to let them take levels at a reasonable pace. Not saying they have to, just that I wouldn’t be disturbed either way.

Cahill

See below

what do people think of andrew carignan?
he’s finally starting to not walk as many batters in AA (5k 0bb in his last 4.1 innings), hopefully he can keep that up.

He's turned into a bit of a flameballer

Apparently he’s amped his FB up several MPH since entering the pro ranks, but it seems to have negatively affected his command. If he finds the combination of the two, he could turn into a good setup guy (he’s not going to be elite until/unless he develops a polished offspeed pitch).

Speaking of amping up fastballs, incidentally, someone at minorleagueball claimed that Mazzaro had added speed to his sinker this season (perhaps accounting for his increased success). It’s a good sign if he’s gone from “projectable” to actually “projecting.”

Folks need to understand that, when a flameballer signs young

...and suddenly his stats go south, it’s not because he’s a bust, it’s often because the coaches are working on his secondary stuff.

Case in point, young Mazzaro. And Lansford. And…

I agree that pitching stats are weird and often unreliable

You can do MLEs for a guy in AAA. Anything below that and you’re probably wasting your time because of things like injuries, new pitches being worked on, etc.

That said, Mazzaro isn’t a flameballer (more of a Brandon Webb type, in the uber-fortunate-peak-case-scenario) and I can’t make head or tail of Lansford.

Working on Pitches

I wrote a couple of months ago about how I thought the Stockton coaches were changing Sam Demel’s delivery. I said let’s see how he’s doing in June. In April, he had a 4.97 ERA, in May he had a 1.69 ERA, and now in June he has a 1.17 ERA. That shows what happens as these young pitchers learn their lessons.

On Carrignan, he’s been walking a ton, but somehow is getting the job done.

Do you think there is room on a single team for both Carrignan and Demel, or will Oakland keep them closing on separate teams as they move up?

They were on the same staff for some of this season (Stockton).

I’m sure if Sam keeps dominating he’ll get moved up to Midland. Relievers are usually the most movable parts in any system, so I’m betting he’ll get moved up and there will be plenty of save opportunities for both of them, especially now since Cahill will be joining the starting staff!

Two more signings.

Petey Paramore is in (3rd round) and Rashun Dixon is passing on football and going to ‘Zona (10th round).

Notes From The Nat

Rashaun Dixon

I’m ecstatic that the A’s signed Dixon. When he got drafted, he was one of two players of whom I bothered to look at their scouting video. He’s FAST. He hit a fly ball that he must have assumed was gone, because he was jogging up the line, and all of a sudden he started absolutely burning and reached third base without a throw in like 3 seconds. He took long, elegant strides. It was pretty amazing.

heh

Just watched it and thought to myself “wtf, he’s a tiny little dude?” but I was looking at the wrong guy…

He was recruited as a running back

not a field goal kicker…

link?
I sort of doubt a link would work

google “mlb ‘draft tracker’ ”, go to the tenth round, etc. and there’s a wmv link.

Very interesting

Isn’t it a given that there’s basically no chance Dixon was signing for slot money (which isn’t much down in the 10th round)?

Wouldn’t this be the first time in… well, since the slotting system was implemented that the A’s have defied the slotting rules?

The A's picks this year make very little sense

unless you assume that they’re going to violate slot for some of them. There’s no way on earth Brett Hunter is taking 7th round money.

True, but did they really take more of those guys than usual?

They always seem to take some guys like that, for reasons I haven’t really understood (because like you said, they don’t make much sense unless you’re willing to violate slot) – not just spending a low pick on Smoak, but like Gary Brown last year in round 12.

Gary Brown was extremely close to signing

He had a last-second crisis of faith and went to college instead (probably the right move, from his perspective), but he was legitimately on the table.

Another reason he might have been drafted...

was to keep him off the draft board for other teams after the 10th round and out of the draft entirely until 2010, giving the team a second shot at meeting his price when he’ll be a more polished product. The way I see it, it was a nice strategy. Draft him, prevent other teams from drafting him, take negotiations with him to their furthest point possible, then wait for him to mature as a player in college and give it another stab in a couple of years.

I agree with this strategy in principle

In fact, I’m on record as saying that there is never any reason to not take the most talented player available once you get past the 10th round. The organizational filler players will still be available later on.

So the A's were ready to go over 12th-round money last year?

Where do you get details like that – BA subscriber?

Random snippet I overheard during the Stanford-Fullerton CWS Super Regional

Probably straight from the horse’s mouth.

Jemile Weeks

hit a 2 run homer in Miami’s game against Florida State… Hurricanes up 4-2 in the bottom of the 5th

Javier Herrera and Trevor Cahill join RockHounds

Cahill has been promoted from Stockton, and Herrera joins the team from his rehab in Arizona

Official Release

Also

they’ve started to add players to the Vancouver Roster. I believe the season there starts tomorrow.

Jaime Escalante Pitching Coach

Mitchell LeVier as OF

I guess that’s the final nail in the coffin for those who hoped of having a lefty catcher.

Great news. Cahill prob spends all year in AA

and Starts next year at AAA. If all goes well he could be with the A’s 2nd half of 2009.

I think at his age,

newness-to-pitching, and injury in 06, caution with the IPs is in order, especially since he seems to already be maximizing what he gets from his stuff. I think it would be dangerous to let him get above 150 this year, or to approach 200 next year.

Im not into

babying pitchers. But Im sure they wont rush him. But late 2009 isnt out of the question.

Awesome.

This will be, what, Herrera’s 3rd attempt to stay healthy and productive in the upper levels of the A’s system? Jeez, and he’s still on the 40-man roster. Gotta hope he can get a few hundred at-bats in during the second half…

Let's hope Cahill handles that big jump better than Henry Rodriguez did

I expect he will, primarily because he has much better command to begin with.

Odd time for it

Cahill’s last start was distinctly his worst of the season to date, and in his last two starts he has more walks than Ks.

I wish the A’s would get their AA squad out of the Texas League and back into the Southern League. It has to be disheartening for young pitchers to work in such a hostile environment. I’d rather see them pitch in something close to neutral.

Both the CA league and the PCL are worse...

and given that the A’s have been significantly more successful at developing pitchers than hitters recently, it would seem that that’s not a bad thing.

It makes sense when you think about it—you’re less likely to be misled by numbers if they’re derived in an environment of similar difficulty to the majors. If the PCL players are 30% worse, but the parks are also 30% harder, pitchers’ stats will be pretty close to “correct” (whereas hitters’ stats will be hugely inflated). In practice I think it’s more like 15%, so you still have to take PCL pitching stats with a grain of salt, but it’s not as bad.

Overall the Cal League and PCL may be tougher on pitchers but this isn’t the case with the home parks. Midland is a bandbox while Stockton and Sacramento are much more in line with the conditions in Oakland. The Cal League’s hitting stats are inflated by High Desert and Lancaster in the Southern Division where the Ports play only 10 of their 140 games.

Uncle Lew do not disappoint us

sign 7 or 8 of these 11 guys

By my count, the Athletics drafted 10 players from your overall Top 200 list. However, half were taken in later rounds because they were either injured, coming off injury or most likely unsignable. Since it’s rare for later-round picks to become better-than-average major leaguers, were these gambles a smart move by Oakland? Dale Carriger San Francisco

The A’s actually selected 11 Top 200 players, including their picks in the first five rounds: Miami second baseman Jemile Weeks (No. 27 on our list), California righthander Tyson Ross (No. 35), Arizona State catcher Petey Paramore (No. 114), Wichita State lefty Anthony Capra (No. 152) and Michigan shortstop Jason Christian (No. 117). All should be signable, and Oakland already has come to terms with 16th-rounder Matt Fitts (No. 195), a Lewis-Clark State (Idaho) righty.

The other five Top 200 draftees are Pepperdine righty Brett Hunter (seventh round, No. 51), South Florida righty Daniel Thomas (13th round, No. 193), Iowa high school outfielder Brent Warren (27th round, No. 130), Wichita State shortstop Dusty Coleman (28th round, No. 185) and Kentucky prep lefty Nick Maronde (43rd round, No. 70).

The biggest coup could be Hunter, who would have gone in the upper half of the first round had he not injured his elbow in his second start of the spring. His signability is a huge question. He was looking at a seven-figure bonus when healthy, but he’ll have no leverage next year if he winds up having Tommy John surgery.

Thomas is a redshirt junior, so my guess is he’ll turn pro now rather than waiting until next year, when he’ll be 23. The other three players will be tough to sign, however. Coleman is a draft-eligible sophomore, so he won’t lose any leverage if he takes his chances again last year. Warren (Oregon State) and Maronde (Florida) are strongly committed to colleges and could develop into first-rounders in 2011.

Even if they don’t sign Hunter, Thomas, Warren, Coleman and Maronde, the gambles were worthwhile. The upside of those players is significantly higher than typical picks in the rounds where they went, and if Oakland lands one or two of them, it will give its draft a nice boost.
http://www.baseballamerica.com...008/266343.html

From BA Chat today

*probably committing cardinal sin by posting this without having checked, but, I’m posting anyways and hoping it’s news, or, was missed earlier.

By my count, the Athletics drafted 10 players from your overall Top 200 list. However, half were taken in later rounds because they were either injured, coming off injury or most likely unsignable. Since it’s rare for later-round picks to become better-than-average major leaguers, were these gambles a smart move by Oakland?

Dale Carriger
San Francisco
The A’s actually selected 11 Top 200 players, including their picks in the first five rounds: Miami second baseman Jemile Weeks (No. 27 on our list), California righthander Tyson Ross (No. 35), Arizona State catcher Petey Paramore (No. 114), Wichita State lefty Anthony Capra (No. 152) and Michigan shortstop Jason Christian (No. 117). All should be signable, and Oakland already has come to terms with 16th-rounder Matt Fitts (No. 195), a Lewis-Clark State (Idaho) righty.

OMG - sorry

and, wow – all I needed to do was read above. sorry guys – just thought it was of particular interest in this discussion, and multi-tasking. my bad. still, good article.

no need to apologize, at least your link works.

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