Athletics Nation

Just overlooked him, typing quickly -

I'll edit in a sec.

An interesting question is:

would you rather have Lackey or Harden right now for just this year?

As far as contending this year, I'm more worried about the A's than the Angels. Four of our best players (Harden, Duke, Street, Chavez) are perhaps the four most injury prone. If these guys are healthy, though, I don't feel at all bad about our chances to contend.

My prediction would be

Harden - healthy for a while, then ???? (impossible to make an intelligent guess!)
Duke - healthy, body prefers starting
Street - mostly healthy but not entirely (that may be optimistic; we'll see)
Chavez - don't wait up

The reason I feel ok about that combination is that Hannahan has really sold me as a solid line drive hitter who can provide good defense. Healthy-Chavy-lite, if you will.

Basically it's all about Harden - per usual.

That sounds pretty plausible

and I would take that outcome. I am also a Dukeophile, and I think he'll be an excellent SP if he stays healthy. It was impossible to hit his 06 cutter solidly.

All about Harden per usual is about right. I like the sound of that a lot more with lower expectations (for the team), than last year when a lot of us said that and it was a bit panic-inducing.

I was just thinking about Duke vs. Zito

Both have a great 12-to-6 curve - Zito's more "unhittable" but Duke able to get called strikes from his more. Both throw mid-80s. Both have only one other key pitch (Zito - changeup, Duke - cutter). The differences? Duke has tremendous command, Zito not terrific command. And Zito makes a bazillion dollars more.

another big difference

Duke has had health issues, Zito has been healthy.

Cy Young...

... and his prestigious award is the only reason-- only-- that Zito made that kind of scratch in free agency. And he won that back before the entire league knew that you could completely ignore that awesome curve which never got thrown for a called strike and sit on that BP fastball that lived year-round in the upper half of the zone. Or you could just wait and let him walk you.

Joey C. - March 15, 2008 reply

OK

What is with the completely ridiculous dissing of Zito around these parts?

2002 was his third season in the league. Hitters and hitting coaches would have had to be shamefacedly awful in their scouting preparation for him if they hadn't figured out his tendencies as a pitcher with a season and a half of video evidence to work with. I'm going to go out on a limb here and guess that by and large, by that point, hitters knew exactly what he was working with, and couldn't hit it because he's, you know, a good pitcher.

PaulThomas - March 15, 2008 reply

IMO, it's not "ridiculous dissing"

Following 2002, Zito was an above-average pitcher who could be counted on to have very mediocre beginnings to the season, very strong finishes, and who was about a 14 game winner who would usually give you a chance to win, never got injured, and wasn't an ace - which is pretty much a description of Joe Blanton today.

Now he appears to have lost a good 3-4 MPH off his fastball and become a league average starter who is getting worse every year. Following a season in which Zito was not an above-average starter, the guy has now pitched 14+ innings in the Cactus League without raising a single dollar for our troops. You think the Giants are a bit concerned, spring training or not? I imagine they are, and with good reason: Zito has never had the command to make it as a guy who topped out at 83-84 MPH.

maybe he's average now but..

Did you watch game 1 of the 2006 ALDS? Were you an A's fan then? How can you diss him?

skalordes - March 16, 2008 reply

How is it "dissing him" to say

He's been good but not great for a few years, and now he appears to be slipping to average?

Saying he's dropped toward average

isn't what I'm complaining about.

It's more comments like "Zito is replacement level" (wrong, you have absolutely no idea what replacement level pitching is), "Zito is done" (it's like two bad starts in spring, OK?), etc. It's sour grapes of the purest variety.

PaulThomas - March 16, 2008 reply

Then I guess you're taking issue with others,

because I've never made those claims. However, I will claim this: From 2006 forward, Zito is on a rather sharp downward trend that, if it continues, will render him a soft-tosser with spotty command and a 4.50+ ERA - a lot closer to "replacement level" and "done" than the Giants feared in "their worst alcoholic nightmares!" when they inked the deal.

a viticultural quandary:

which is the purest variety of sour grapes?

skutch - March 16, 2008 reply

A's fans: we put the "cult" in "cultivar"

monkeyball - March 16, 2008 reply

Zito was done 3 years ago

He is not a good pitcher and has not been a good pitcher in ages.

He is a GASCAN with NO FASTBALL.

I wanted the A's to trade him 3 years ago.

TimTimTimbo - March 16, 2008 reply

OK...

so you wanted the A's to skip a playoff appearance and their first series win since 1990.

Not exactly making the case for your position here.

PaulThomas - March 16, 2008 reply

Actually, I like Zito

I agree with something I read in the 2006 Baseball Prospectus that put Zito as a fringey #1 or an awesome #2. When he's at his best, anyway.

The problem so far as I can see, is that Zito has shown an unwillingness to adapt his game. Other than developing a show-me slider for lefties, his approach is pretty much what I described above: high "fast"balls, curves out of the zone, changeups for strikes. And it leads to a lot of walks. In his contract year, he finished second only to Walk-A-Thon Daniel Cabrera. Zito only gets K's when hitters are overly aggressive and swing at his perpetually out-of-the-zone fastballs.

Nico's comment about the difference in Zito and Duke's curves was what led to what I wrote. I really think if he would just throw his curve for called strikes more often, he'd keep hitters off balance and hesitant. He just won't do it.

Joey C. - March 16, 2008 reply

Lackey. Harden's destined to hit the DL again.

OldhamA - March 15, 2008 reply

obviously injuries can make or break a season

we can only speculate based on the talent on each club.

is the new 2008 A's slogan!

"100% Baseball"

The first series of new commercials is what it would be like to live in a neighborhood with the Athletics (FUN!).

A spot promoting Kurt Suzuki Bobblehead Day shows Suzuki emerging from his house early in the morning, wrapped in a white robe, and squatting to give the paperboy signs.

Outfielder Travis Buck knocks on a neighbor's door to sheepishly retrieve a ball that's been hit through a window. Right-hander Justin Duchscherer pumps his fist after striking out a young boy in a Red Sox cap. Stomper plays "Charge!" on an organ in time with the steps of the mailman. An A's-run, $1-hot-dog stand is packed, leaving the neighborhood kids' nearby lemonade stand desolate.

And on the flip side ...

It's quite clever, in keeping with Oakland's long history of hilarious ads, but there's a serious side to the campaign, too. Some of the spots focus on the club's 40 years in Oakland, starting with footage of vintage greats such as Joe Rudi, Catfish Hunter, Vida Blue and Reggie Jackson before gradually taking the viewer through the years of Billy Ball, the Bash Brothers and the Big Three.

I can't wait to see them!!

gotgreen - March 15, 2008 reply

Can't go wrong with Stomper

did they hire the new Stomper?

I really hope Suzuki has something on under that robe

Or he could give the sign for the fastball without using his hands.

thejd44 - March 15, 2008 reply

Fastball location depends on who is pitching

Fastball down low

Fastball up and in

doctorK - March 16, 2008 reply

I'm not comfortable with Lackey being down low.

WaddellCanseco - March 16, 2008 reply

Maybe he's "on the down low,"

wink, wink, eh? Wait...He's on the DL now...the "down low"? Know what I mean, know what I mean?"

Wot's it like?

Yeah, I'd much rather Alyssa down low

thejd44 - March 16, 2008 reply

Lackey's backdoor slider is pretty effective, though

I've been told that high and inside

is the way to hit the sweet spot.

iglew - March 16, 2008 reply

I had been thinking that this commercial

could be x-rated

OaklandSi - March 16, 2008 reply

Long Shot Possibility

If the young A's can stay healthy, take advantage of the Angel's banged up rotation and play good baseball for all of April, then end the month in one of the top two spots in the division, then it's very possible that the team might be able to compete the rest of the season...

Problem is, the words "healthy" & "hot start" are not allowed in the A's clubhouse.

Taj Adib - March 15, 2008 reply

Not sure

It'll be nice having those two out to start, but the Angels know they are the favorites and won't be rushing these guys back out there until they are ready, because honestly they might not need to. I hope it takes them a while to get into the swing of things, because I'm feeling really good about our team. I actually think, for the first time, that Harden will be healthy and effective. I've never felt really positive about his season-long health, but for some reason this season is different. I've always thought the offense would be better this season, because it would have been tough to be worse than it was last year. Mike Sweeney and Jack Cust will be a formidable duo in the middle, and as long as T-Buck and Barton get on base, which I think they will, the offense will be fine. Is it possible this year we might get some breaks? I mean, no Beckett or Schilling in Japan (not really worried about Schilling ever, but it's nice to not have to face him), no Lackey or Escobar for at least a month, the Rangers are still the Rangers, and we've got a good amount of depth and talent at all positions. Can't wait for the season to start.

sprtsnwyn - March 15, 2008 reply

In keeping with the theme

Getting Mike Sweeney on the field means adding him to the 40 man roster. There are a few ways to do this. The easiest is if Calero goes on the 60 day DL or is given his outright release. Conventional thinking says if Sweeney makes the 25 man cut DJ is gone, which is probably true. An outside the box idea would be to trade AAA OF Richie Robnett, a tools guy who supposedly gets asked about inspite of his mediocre production. With Gonzales and Ryan Sweeney around Robnett's loss wouldn't be too traumatic. An even better idea would be to trade Javier Herrera if you could find anyone willing to part with more then a bag of baseballs for him. Sorry Herrera fans, but I'm done with the guy. He ain't gonna make it and right now all he's doing is taking up space on the 40 man roster.

I'm not sure if there's a Todd Linden fan club on AN but if he keeps hitting like he has he may force the A's to get creative to keep him around. A couple of the ideas I mentioned above could come into play.

grover - March 15, 2008 reply

Herrera

He might be a little overcooked, but a Herrera that lives up to expectations is the kind of player the A`s have been trying to trade for the last few years. Not only could he be that power thret from the right the A`s have been looking for, but he can play center to boot. He`s like (to tempt fate) Rich Harden in that the reward is so great you keep trotting him out until he proves he will never live up to expectations.

Threepwood XX - March 15, 2008 reply

trade em all billy

calero, DJ, robnett, herrera, trade them!

xbhaskarx - March 15, 2008 reply

I'm sure he'd love to...

it's sorta like the housing market now, though, you can't sell when there are no takers.

FoolshGame22 - March 16, 2008 reply

M's fans are pretty cocky about their opening day rotation versus ours...

Really though? As long as we are talking about the opening day rotation, which assumes healthy for both teams (thus far, sorry Halos).

Harden or Bedard? Bedard sure, but by how much? very little...thats how much.

Felix or Blanton? Felix for sure, but its not like he has fulfilled his promise thus far. This is really a question of which pitcher is more likely to improve, and definitely Felix is that pitcher.

Now the last 3 spots..
M's: Silva, Washburn, Batista
A's: Duke, Gaudin, Eveland(after his last outing, come on and recognize)

Hmmm, which group is better based on relevant past performance? I'd have to say its a toss-up because neither group has been too effective in aggregate, although this is hard to evaluate because of Duke. But which group has FAR more upside? I'd don't see anything UP about the Mariners' 3-5 SP's except the probable direction of their ERA trends.

Of course, the M's rotation becomes infinitely better, relatively speaking, if Harden is lost, but Felix hasn't shown himself to be injury free either...(I would never wish that fate for him)

ChadGod - March 15, 2008 reply

In fairness, the M's rotation looks good

and their bullpen is solid too - not sure about their lineup. I think Sexson is overrated, while Beltre and Ibañez have been so inconsistent it's hard to know what to expect. I suspect their "everything broke right" overachieving of 2007, and their legitimate improvement (adding Bedard) will approximately cancel one another out, leaving them a plus-.500 but sub 90-win team. They're in the mix, though - especially with Lackey's and Escobar's health in question.

I agree, M's rotation looks good

but I guess I am just a little disappointed in the Mariners fans. From what I see on their blog and a lot my M's fan friends (I'm from Seattle), they are discounted the A's rotation quite a bit even though more than anyone else they should realize how competetive the A's rotation could be.

ChadGod - March 15, 2008 reply

It's not just adding Erik Bedard

It's also "not adding Adam Jones." They now have Brad Wilkerson playing right field instead. They also gave up their second-best reliever.

One of the ironies about trying to project Seattle is that because of their perverse insistence on playing bad players over good ones, a lack of injuries such as they had last year actually makes the team worse.

PaulThomas - March 15, 2008 reply

yeah

Who is Sexon overrated by? He gets booed by his own fans for being such a horrible player.
But yeah, barring injury the M's rotation is pretty damn solid, and if this is the year King Felix (hate that nickname, don't you really have to do something really impressive before getting a nickname like that?) lives up to his huge supposed potential they'll have two LEGITIMATE aces and a decent 3,4,5 (no more Weaver's probably one of the best 'addition by subtraction' examples). They did give up too much for Bedard in my opinion, but its still going to benefit them more for this season at least having him than any of the people they gave up would have helped them this year. As some earlier posters have said, even with these injuries it will take a lot of luck for the A's to really be competitive in the division race, unless for some freak reason Lackey ends up out for the year. Then we would have an actual shot (long, but there) at the division.

yo - March 16, 2008 reply

'Who is Sexson overrated by?'

1. Casual generic fans who don't watch the Mariners and whose last memories of Sexson are the Home Run Derby in Milwaukee;

2. The Mariners front office; and

3. grover.

(To grover's credit, he doesn't overrate Sexson nearly as much as the other two groups do.)

iglew - March 16, 2008 reply

GROVER

overrates a lot of things, like Kendall's dis-worth to the A's.

Duke, Gaudin, Eveland

certainly may all have higher upsides than Silva, Washburn and Batista. But to say it is a toss-up because neither group has been too effective in aggregate is ridiculous.

All 3 of Silva et al, have shown the ability to be 200 IP league average innings eaters. That is not great, or even good, but it has value. Silva and Washburn may be overpaid, but being overpaid does not mean that they are not effective.

Eveland has done absolutely nothing in MLB as yet. Duke is a great reliever, converted to starting, and has injury issues.

Felix has not been injury free. He also has never missed as much time, and had as many problems as Harden.

rfloh - March 16, 2008 reply

+1

grover - March 16, 2008 reply

I agree that innings have value, but

I'm really not sure I agree that tons of innings from Washburn/Silva/Batista can be expected to be at league average going forward. I suppose I agree my statement is ridiculous in terms of past performance over a full season, but you have to keep in mind that I was talking about the opening day rotation, so longevity was not part of my discussion.

Ignoring longevity, I'd say Silva/Washburn/Batista vs. Duke/Gaudin/Combo of organizational 5th starters would be fairly equitable based on recent past performance.

ChadGod - March 16, 2008 reply

Reliability vs. ceiling -

The trio of Silva-Washburn-Batista has a better chance of giving you a predictable outcome than the trio that starts with Duke-Gaudin. However, Duke and Gaudin could easily have the two best 2008 seasons out of any of the six. Partly because Silva and Washburn and Batista have established that they are aren't usually "very good".

just a caution

Duchscherer hasn't yet been a major league starter. He's been terrific as a reliever when healthy, so we're hopeful. But he doesn't yet have the appropriate track record.

OaklandSi - March 16, 2008 reply

Im just thankful for our organization

The M's are in win now mode and don't want to take chances (Morrow), but I'm just thankful that the A's likely won't put anyone as thoroughly unexciting and unpromising as Washburn and Batista in their rotation.

ChadGod - March 16, 2008 reply

Why not?

Has the pitching of Silva/Washburn/Batista changed since last year? Unless they have, I do not see any reason why they cannot be league average next year.

Sure, Silva and Washburn are the types of pitchers who walk a very fine line. A slight decline in skills, and they go kaboom, but that is true of many pitchers like them. That makes them overpaid, but still useful.

Why would you ignore longevity / durability? The most talented pitcher in the world is not an MLB pitcher if he cannot get MLB outs without injuring himself.

Equitable based on recent past performance? Silva's career ERA+ is 102. Last 4 years, 112, 129, 75, 103. He has topped 180 IP in all 4 of those years.

Washburn, career 110, last 4 years: 97, 132, 95, 100. IP totals: 149, 177, 187, 193.

Batista, career 103, bouncing between starting and relieving, Iast 4 years: 100, 109, 103, 101. IP totals: 198, 74(reliever), 206, 193.

Gaudin's ERA+ last year was 95, in his only full season. Duke has never started in a full season. Eveland, nope. I do not see how the past performances of Gaudin / Duke / Eveland can be said to be a fairly equitable comparison with that of Silva / Batista / Washburn.

The Mariners are likely to have among the best 4th and 5th starters in MLB. That does matter. Look at the crap that most teams cycle through their 5th starter spot in a desperate attempt to find a player who is not a disaster. Combined with very good 1st and 2nd starters, they are likely to have a very strong rotation.

rfloh - March 17, 2008 reply

LOGIC

sets in! The kool-aid drinking continues in these parts. Let's just play an even keel and see how things play out.

by the way, I don't know if I've ever mentioned

how relieved I was that the Angels didn't trade for Miguel Cabrera...

aLRITE!

If they just have a winning April for once they can carry that on for the rest of the season!

Oaktownflav - March 15, 2008 reply

All in all...

if the A's can start the season by staying within striking distance of the Angels until summer, I'm starting to believe that some of our young studs will be ready for the rotation/bullpen come July. As inconceivable as it was last December, we have an outside shot at this thing.

alox - March 16, 2008 reply

It was never inconceivable.

And it won't be until we're mathematically eliminated.

WaddellCanseco - March 16, 2008 reply

4 more cuts

No weekend link dump, so I'll throw this out here:

The Oakland A's on Sunday optioned pitchers Jerry Blevins and Henry Rodriguez to Triple-A Sacramento and reassigned non-roster invitee pitcher Kirk Saarloos and catcher Matt LeCroy to their Minor League camp.

HigherPie - March 16, 2008 reply

I'm thinking Blevins' reassignment is partly

because he could still use some AAA refining (command) and partly because it appears the A's will have plenty of lefties in the pen from among the losers of the #5-spot derby.

Makes sense

If a handful of guys have all performed about equally, you may as well send down the guy who has the options. No need losing a player to waivers or an assignment refusal if it's not necessary.

thejd44 - March 16, 2008 reply

Also the player who could most benefit

from more AAA work. (I wish they had optioned my car.)

FormerHuntsvilleStar - March 16, 2008 reply

It's all good that...

...Jerry Blevins was sent down, but what about Jerry Belvins? He's the one I've really been following. What happened to him??!!

Threepwood XX - March 16, 2008 reply

not to mention our 6 other outfielders

Denorfla, De Norfa, Denrofia, Deforina, Defnoria, and Deon Fria

monkeyball - March 16, 2008 reply

Cal Defornia

You forgot Denofria

(He called me from the plane.)

iglew - March 16, 2008 reply

I thought your handle, Threepwood XX

must have to do with P. G. Wodehouse's character of Galahad Threepwood (Lord Emsworth's younger brother) but then I Googled and apparently there's some video game thingy.

Englishmajor - March 16, 2008 reply

Henry Rodriguez

I'm surprised that H-Rod got optioned to AAA Sacramento though his performance during spring training justifies the upgrade. The biggest concern for me is whether the front office will put him on track to be a starting pitcher or will he be converted to a reliever.

The upgrade to our farm system leaves a small amount of spots to a lot of candidates at our AAA starting rotation. The AAA starting rotation looks to be any of Dallas Braden, Gio Gonzalez, Greg Smith (Eveland or DiNardo will probably be the A's 5th with the other one in the bullpen as long relief), Jason Windsor, Shane Komine, Kirk Saarloos, or Henry Rodriguez. There could be more that I missed but I wonder who will be in the AAA rotation.

Coffee13eans - March 16, 2008 reply

I'd like to see H. Rodriguez primed as a reliever

Focus on being dominant by locating the fastball. We have Gio Gonzalez in AAA, and from Cahill, Simmons, Brett Anderson, Fautino DLS, and Arnold Leon, we have plently of great arms coming up to AA-AAA soon. I'd like to see H-Rod push Street for the closer's job, or replace Street if he's dealt, in 2009-10.

question

Does being optioned to AAA now really mean that he'll be playing for the Rivercats? Or does it just mean that he's going to the minor league spring training camp and then will eventually be sent to Stockton or Midland once their seasons start. Because I agree that AAA would be an extremely aggressive promotion for Henry.

colin - March 16, 2008 reply

I would think it just means "minors"

H-Rod should start no higher than AA, IMO - he's still very young and very raw.

IMO too hehe

"Optioned to AAA Sacramento" is a legal fiction

He will open the year in A+ or, maybe, AA.

PaulThomas - March 16, 2008 reply

by the way

what's for lunch?

OaklandSi - March 16, 2008 reply

and where's our game thread?

Englishmajor - March 16, 2008 reply

Seriously Nico?

You must be stretching for things to talk about

Athletic - March 16, 2008 reply

I'll bite...

No I won't.

Colorado Fan - March 16, 2008 reply

sigh of relief

ahhhh baseball season