Okay, I tried, people. I tried to write a comprehensive, in-depth look at what to watch for at Spring Training. And do you know what I came up with? An article written in complete question format. So I tried again. And you know what I came up with? Yeah, more questions.
I took that as a sign. So here you are; fifty questions about Spring Training and the 2008 season, which we will see answered one by one over the course of the year.
Bonus fun idea: Print this list and take it to Spring Training with you, complete with your ‘I heart baseballgirl T-shirt’.
Bonus fun idea #2: Let’s see your answers in the comments below!
Bonus fun idea #3: Add more questions to the list.
How do you think the 40 man roster will change before Opening Day?
Will Sweeney make the 40-man?
Will Sweeney DH?
Will Cust DH?
Will they let Cust play the field?
Will they let Sweeney play the field?
Are there any more options at DH?
Do you expect any Spring Training surprises, a la Travis Buck of last year?
Who will be the next Marco Scutaro, of the timely hits and awesome chant?
What will the lineup look like?
Will we recognize any of the players’ numbers?
Who are we most excited about getting to know?
Will Travis Buck keep his hair long, or will he cut it NYY style?
Who will be rocking the high socks?
Pitching
Who IS playing outfield for the Oakland A’s this year?
Outfielders from the 40-man roster:
Emil Brown
Travis Buck
Chris Denorfia
Jeff Fiorentino
Carlos Gonzalez
Javier Herrera
Richie Robnett
Ryan Sweeney
Is it bad if Travis Buck looks like an A’s veteran in this list?
Is it really bad if I could barely recognize this as an A’s lineup?
Can any of these players play shortstop?
Infield
Can Bobby Crosby prove 75% of this site wrong and emerge as a serviceable shortstop now that (presumably) his injuries are behind him?
Will the A’s management have the temerity to replace him if he doesn’t?
Is Chavez finally healthy, and if finally healthy, finally good?
Will we see Barton at first base?
Who else will we see at first base?
Will Hannahan understudy for the infield?
Will Donnie Murphy understudy for the infield?
Will both of them make the big league club?
In April, can Suzuki quadruple the number of homeruns that Jason Kendall hit in his entire Athletics’ career?
(optional, may be for a limited audience)
Most importantly, is Chavez still the hottest ballplayer on the field, or will he finally be replaced?
0 recs | 57 comments
This list
is making my head hurt. Except for the last question, that one's easy. And shouldn't even need to be asked!
pam5981 - February 19, 2008
I like what I'm hearing about Chavez
making big progress on his rehab. If he can get back to 75% of what he once was before injuries took their toll, I'll be one happy A's fan.
This is a make or break year for Crosby too. I do hope he proves all of us wrong, and can put together a decent BA, and stay healthy all year long.
As for Harden, if he could just make it through a year without an injury. It's like asking to see the sun often in winter here in Finland, it ain't going to happen.
Mikko O - February 20, 2008
75%?!
So, what is that ... like .225, with 12 HR's and 52 RBI?!
What we need is Eric Chavez at 100% hitting the ball like he's capable ... .270-.280 with 30 HR's and 100+ RBI ... then I'll be one happy A's fan ... with Eric Chavez ... for a change.
Vacafan - February 20, 2008
Wow
Quite a list...
!st off - who doesn't heart baseballgirl??
Dunno about the 40 man roster but Sweeney should make the team and play 1st base occasionally, but mostly DH. I think DJ ends up on another team. Please don't let Cust in the outfield. Surprises - Denorfia, just the fact that he is playing, is surprise enough. Timely hits - Kurt Klutch (Suzuki). Our line up - dunno, but it is way better than the Giants.. Players #'s, let me put it this way, this is 1st time in 10 years that I may have to buy the A's media guide. I would like to see Carlos Gonzales play, after all, he is the jewel of the Haren trade. I thought Buck played better with his hair long. High soxs - Ellis and Crosby.
Jairo, will be back - hope he remembers to pack his fastball. I will not comment on Harden - don't wanna jinx him. I think Jumbo Joe will be fine, baseball players usually get their #'s each year. I'm not sure on Duchs ability to start, endurance and ability to get through a lineup 2 to 3 times per start are my worries. I think Gaudin will be fine, more INN than runs allowed. DiNardo, should be a long man. I would like to see Gio Gonzales pitch, I hear his curve ball is the best in the minors. Calero not having surgery, eh, who knows. If 2006 Calero is back, great, but I think we have enough arms in bullpen. I like our bullpen. I see balance, power arms, shut down guys. If the we have a lead @ the end of 6, I expect Brown, Blevins, Casilla, Foulke, Embree, and Street to close it out. I think Street should let the fans help him pick out a song.
equation9 - February 20, 2008
I'll take Mascots for $400, Alex
Will the real Stomper please stand up?
I wasn't expecting a quiz this morning so I'll toss out a few more questions instead in the team category: How many wins for the G&G this year? Placement in the standings? GA/GB? How many brawls with the Angels? Other teams?
Attendance/In Game Experience: Will I have a row all to myself this year? Section? Deck? Will I be able to talk to other AN'ers across the stadium? Will I finally catch a live ball? When will the first fight break out at the all-you-can-eat section? Will they PLEASE get rid of Dot Racing? Will monkeyball bring his own condiments and leave Lew's to the paying customers?
I mailed for my shirt along time ago...what's the ETA on that?
67MARQUEZ - February 20, 2008
I had a dream last night that I caught a foul ball at an A's game
monkeyball - February 20, 2008
I have that dream a lot
but not last night
Last night, me and Chavy were at Taco Bell, arguing over who is hotter, Salma Hayek or Eva Mendez.
We were speaking spanglish.
67MARQUEZ - February 20, 2008
NEVER!!!!
Dot Racing Rules!!! Period!!!
0akFoSho - February 20, 2008
You are verry easily entertained.
I've always thot dot races were the best proof that PT Barnum was right. The fact that our colors are green and gold, and the insipid dots are rw&b just adds to to idiocy. C'mon, Marketing -- we know you're out there lurking -- at least switch 'em to our branded colors.
The Dogfather - February 21, 2008
Cracked AN open at 0520 this morning
while sipping bad coffee. Will have to get some better coffee before I read this listo-questo-maximo more thoroughly.
ak_A - February 20, 2008
Seeing "Travis Buck" and "NYY" in the same sentence
made me throw up in my mouth a little.
LAXile - February 20, 2008
Agreed
I feel like LAXile and I can take turns putting our pointer finger down each other's throat
ru155 - February 20, 2008
2 A's fans 1 cup?
monkeyball - February 20, 2008
ew.
ew ew ew ew ew.
pam5981 - February 20, 2008
2 fans
1 A's cap?
67MARQUEZ - February 20, 2008
That's gonna cost you $10.
LAXile - February 20, 2008
questions?
I don't care about any of the Questions yet! I just want my "I heart BBG' T-shirt!!!!
Satchmo22 - February 20, 2008
you're not mexican enough
oh waiit...
67MARQUEZ - February 20, 2008
hey now
is that a B-12 shot or are ya just happy to see me
Satchmo22 - February 20, 2008
happy to see you
btw, shirts are $22.50
act now and we'll throw in a free book
67MARQUEZ - February 20, 2008
deal!!!
but if you are throwing in a book make it a soft cover. I don't want to crosby myself trying to catch a hardcover book this early in spring training.
Satchmo22 - February 20, 2008
"Crosby myself"?!
LOL. That's good! Did that get invented recently, or did I miss that phrase awhile ago?!
streetfan - February 20, 2008
There's a I♥BBG t-shirt?
Sign me up! XL. I'll have to think about the questions.
WaddellCanseco - February 20, 2008
Will Santiago Casilla make it back to the U.S.?
Sub-questions:
- What will his name be?
- How old will he be?
lurkerD - February 20, 2008
"2H!" "3A!" "3N!"
H - A - DOUBLE N -A, - H - A - N SPELLS HANNAHAN.
WOKE UP FACE DOWN UPON A LAWN IN MIN-NIE,
SINCE THEN AIN'T HAD NO ALCOHOL WITHIN ME.
H - A - DOUBLE N -A, - H - A - N, YOU SEE,
NOT MUCH RANGE, PLAYS WITH PAINGE, FOR LOOSE CHANGE, OUR NEW MAN-CANDY,
HANNAHAN, THAT`S ME!
/apologies to George M Cohan, as he spins in his grave
The Dogfather - February 20, 2008
I can see Carlos and Gio making the
team out of ST like Buck did last year. This addresses a bunch of the other questions about OF and rotation as well. I can see the team not wanting to give Emil and Lenny starting jobs. I'm not expecting it, but I wouldn't rule it out. Their names seem chantable as well. If we're looking for a supersub then I agree with Hannahan.
WaddellCanseco - February 20, 2008
Hokay
What the hey, I'm going to answer all of these.
How do you think the 40 man roster will change before Opening Day?
Harden to DL, DJ to... someone, possibly Sacramento, Sweeney to roster, Eveland and Meyer to the rotation
Will Sweeney make the 40-man?
I think so.
Will Sweeney DH?
No. He'll platoon at first base and DH.
Will Cust DH?
Yes, except against righthanders.
Will they let Cust play the field?
Yes, against righthanders.
Will they let Sweeney play the field?
Yes, on Barton's days off.
Are there any more options at DH?
Landon Powell, later in the season. Plus power as a switch-hitter is pretty appealing.
Do you expect any Spring Training surprises, a la Travis Buck of last year?
If I expected them, they wouldn't be a surprise...
Who will be the next Marco Scutaro, of the timely hits and awesome chant?
"Don-nie Mur-phy" has a euphonic "chanting" name... Jack Hannahan doesn't. Neither does Gregorio Petit. Murphy is your early favorite.
What will the lineup look like?
Very different against RHP and LHP. Against RHP I'd say Buck, Denorfia, Barton, Cust, Chavez, Ellis, Crosby, Ryan Sweeney, Suzuki.
Will we recognize any of the players’ numbers?
I don't know any of them right now.
Who are we most excited about getting to know?
Me? Carlos Gonzalez. If Beane wanted him in spite of his rawness and bad plate discipline, he's got to be pretty darn impressive.
Will Travis Buck keep his hair long, or will he cut it NYY style?
The buzz last year was horrific... he looked like an internment camp victim. T-Buck, if you're reading this, please keep it long.
Who will be rocking the high socks?
Can't help much there.
PaulThomas - February 20, 2008
Cust in the field?
Only if he is lighting it up at the time. He is streaky, and in those times, he should never leave the lineup.
Cust and Barton will be in the lineup against right handers, because they are lefties. Sweeney will DH against lefties, and Cust will sit, unless one of his streaks keeps him in the lineup. The A's will have plenty of OFs available to play, and Cust should never be put in the field. If need be Barton can sit vs. lefties and Sweeney can play at 1st to allow Cust to play at DH.
0akFoSho - February 21, 2008
Pitching
Will Santiago Casilla make it back to the U.S.?
Yes, but the name on his passport will change at least twice more.
Will Rich Harden stay healthy through Spring Training?
No.
Through April?
Heck no.
Through the All-Star Break?
Not bloody likely.
Through the end of the year?
You've got to be kidding me.
What’s the over/under on Harden IP?
25-- either I'm right and his shoulder is shot for full-force throwing, or I'm wrong and he's fine.
Will Blanton step up to the challenge of being promoted in the rotation?
If by that you mean "suddenly become a #1 starter," no. He's still the same pitcher.
Will Blanton pitch to his exact numbers last year?
That would be a feat, probabilistically speaking. (No one has two years that are exactly the same in a row.) I expect a bit of regression but not much-- a 4 ERA or so.
Will Duchscherer remember how to be a starting pitcher?
Given his oft-expressed desire to do it, I would hope so.
Will we miss Duchscherer’s presence in the bullpen more than we enjoy his performance as a starter?
Fernando Hernandez: next Duchscherer. You heard it here first, people.
Can Duchscherer stay healthy through all of this?
I don't like his long-term prognosis, but then again he's not going to be an A long-term anyway. How he feels at age 35 isn't really an issue. Short-term, I think he'll be fine.
PaulThomas - February 20, 2008
FerHer?
monkeyball - February 20, 2008
re: Harden and his shoulder
seems like the tendinitis in his biceps is an indication he has a lingering problem in his shoulder, like an impingement. it won't be long before we hear that he's having problems. I like the "he doesn't make it through ST" prediction.
skutch - February 20, 2008
or an indication of, um ... something else
monkeyball - February 20, 2008
are you suggesting I can't make
a crack diagnosis from 1200 miles using only terse statements in the press as clues? this seemed so much more challenging than weighing in on who's hottest in knee socks.
skutch - February 20, 2008
No, not at all
I'm saying that there's a clear (ahem) avenue for speculation regarding a certain something that's been alleged to occasionally result in arm tendinitis.
monkeyball - February 20, 2008
I should have said
that the impingement he suffered last year apparently is having lingering effects (it's not like the condition went undiagnosed). It would be surprising if Harden did not require surgery on that shoulder before too long.
skutch - February 20, 2008
Pitching part 2
How long will Gaudin be a starting pitcher?
Until he leaves baseball. What's the point of putting him in the pen?
Which will be higher; Gaudin’s IP, or runs allowed?
Wow, pessimistic much? The guy was dominant last year when he was healthy.
Are we really looking at Lenny DiNardo in the starting rotation?
Not really. He's still a 6th starter and long reliever.
Who else do we want to see start?
I'd like to see Mike Madsen get a crack if he shows well in AAA this year.
Did Calero make a good decision when he chose to rehab his arm instead of opting for surgery?
For him, yes. For the team, no. He should have been released.
How has that decision worked out for A’s players in the past?
Can't say for A's guys, but it sure bombed for Colon last year.
Will Foulke be a welcome addition to the A’s ‘pen?
Hopefully he will be a welcome addition to someone else's pen when he gets spun off for prospects.
Will Street be the closer he was during his first year at this level?
Don't get misled by BABIP. Last year was his best year yet, apart from the injury issue. He developed a changeup that dramatically upped his strikeout rate.
Will Embree give Street any competition?
If you think Street sucks as a closer, you apparently haven't studied the rosters of, say, the Orioles. No.
Will Street ever get a closer song that doesn’t put half the crowd to sleep? Will Street let us pick his closer song?
I'm taking the fifth on these; I don't get to enough games to either know what his song is or care very much.
PaulThomas - February 20, 2008
Which will be higher; Gaudin’s IP, or runs allowed?
Wow, pessimistic much? The guy was dominant last year when he was healthy.
I LOVE Gaudin, and I couldn't disagree more with 'dominant'.
baseballgirl - February 21, 2008
Actually, you're kind of right
His first half numbers aren't that dominant. His K rate actually went way up in the second half. (Of course, so did his walks and gopherballs.)
Still, a GB/FB ratio of almost 2:1 is pretty damn effective. It's hard to hit a ground ball home run.
PaulThomas - February 21, 2008
Infield/Outfield
Who IS playing outfield for the Oakland A’s this year?
Buck, Denorfia, and a platoon of Ryan Sweeney and Emil Brown.
Is it bad if Travis Buck looks like an A’s veteran in this list?
Catfish Stew's post on this has to be one of the funniest things I've seen all season.
Is it really bad if I could barely recognize this as an A’s lineup?
It's barely recognizable as an MLB lineup.
Can any of these players play shortstop?
If Mickey Stanley can play shortstop, Travis Buck can, too...
Can Bobby Crosby prove 75% of this site wrong and emerge as a serviceable shortstop now that (presumably) his injuries are behind him?
Well, the problem is that he's bad at baseball. Health won't cure that.
Will the A’s management have the temerity to replace him if he doesn’t?
I think the fanbase will force a change if he's still hitting .220 in June.
Is Chavez finally healthy, and if finally healthy, finally good?
No. He's still in rehab, essentially. I wouldn't expect him to be good before the second half of the season, and that's if he doesn't reinjure anything.
Will we see Barton at first base?
Sure. Why not?
Who else will we see at first base?
Sweeney, probably. Darkhorse: Sean Doolittle is going to be promoted aggressively (the plan is to start him at AA) and could have a cup of coffee as early as this season.
Will Hannahan understudy for the infield?
I think they want him to become a utility guy who can fit in anywhere.
Will Donnie Murphy understudy for the infield?
Sure.
Will both of them make the big league club?
Perhaps not out of spring. I think Hannahan will be sent to AAA to work out as an outfielder and will return to the bigs midyear.
In April, can Suzuki quadruple the number of homeruns that Jason Kendall hit in his entire Athletics’ career?
Since that would put him on pace to break Bonds's single season HR record, I'm guessing "no" on this one.
Most importantly, is Chavez still the hottest ballplayer on the field, or will he finally be replaced?
His insufficient Mexicanness will finally catch up to him once Arnold Leon, who is actually bona-fide Mexican, is old enough to start shaving.
PaulThomas - February 20, 2008
Can Bobby Crosby prove 75% of this site wrong and emerge as a serviceable shortstop now that (presumably) his injuries are behind him?
Well, the problem is that he's bad at baseball. Health won't cure that.
HAHA!!!!
baseballgirl - February 21, 2008
i'll take a stab at it
General
How do you think the 40 man roster will change before Opening Day?
Will Sweeney make the 40-man? Mike? Yes. Ryan? No.
Will Sweeney DH? Mike will DH when Cust is in RF.
Will Cust DH? Yes.
Will they let Cust play the field? Yes.
Will they let Sweeney play the field? Maybe.
Are there any more options at DH? Bonds. Just kidding.
Do you expect any Spring Training surprises, a la Travis Buck of last year? No.
Who will be the next Marco Scutaro, of the timely hits and awesome chant? Donnie Murphy.
What will the lineup look like? Buck lf, Barton 1b, Chavez 3b, Cust rf, M. Sweeney dh, Ellis 2b, Crosby ss, Denorfia cf, Suzuki c
Will we recognize any of the players’ numbers? Maybe a couple.
Who are we most excited about getting to know? Carlos Gonzalez.
Will Travis Buck keep his hair long, or will he cut it NYY style? Probably the same as last year...long at first, then cut it. It gets annoying to keep your hair that long.
Who will be rocking the high socks? Ellis.
Pitching
Will Santiago Casilla make it back to the U.S.? I hope so.
Will Rich Harden stay healthy through Spring Training? Yes.
Through April? Yes.
Through the All-Star Break? No.
Through the end of the year? No.
What’s the over/under on Harden IP? 125
Will Blanton step up to the challenge of being promoted in the rotation? So much that he gets traded.
Will Blanton pitch to his exact numbers last year? No, Cincinnati is a small ballpark.
Will Duchscherer remember how to be a starting pitcher? Yes, if only a little bit.
Will we miss Duchscherer’s presence in the bullpen more than we enjoy his performance as a starter? No.
Can Duchscherer stay healthy through all of this? Doubtful.
How long will Gaudin be a starting pitcher? All season. He's gonna win 15+ games.
Which will be higher; Gaudin’s IP, or runs allowed? IP
Are we really looking at Lenny DiNardo in the starting rotation? No.
Who else do we want to see start? Harden, Gaudin, Meyer, Duchscherer, Eveland.
Did Calero make a good decision when he chose to rehab his arm instead of opting for surgery? For him? Yes. For us? Eh...
How has that decision worked out for A’s players in the past? Not well.
Will Foulke be a welcome addition to the A’s ‘pen? He'll save 20 games. Street will be gone midway through the season :(
Will Street be the closer he was during his first year at this level? No, he'll be a setup man for someone else by July.
Will Embree give Street any competition? Yes, if the competition is who will get traded first.
Will Street ever get a closer song that doesn’t put half the crowd to sleep? You don't like NAS?
Will Street let us pick his closer song? No. The A's reused Crazy Train for Dye after Jaha got hurt. I don't think the players even pick them half the time.
Outfield
Who IS playing outfield for the Oakland A’s this year? Buck, Denorfia, Cust.
Outfielders from the 40-man roster:
Emil Brown: yes
Travis Buck: yes
Chris Denorfia: yes
Jeff Fiorentino: no
Carlos Gonzalez: maybe
Javier Herrera: no
Richie Robnett: no
Ryan Sweeney: maybe later
Is it bad if Travis Buck looks like an A’s veteran in this list? Kinda
Is it really bad if I could barely recognize this as an A’s lineup? Yes.
Can any of these players play shortstop? Robnett. ;)
Infield
Can Bobby Crosby prove 75% of this site wrong and emerge as a serviceable shortstop now that (presumably) his injuries are behind him? No.
Will the A’s management have the temerity to replace him if he doesn’t? Yes.
Is Chavez finally healthy, and if finally healthy, finally good? I think so.
Will we see Barton at first base? Absolutely.
Who else will we see at first base? Sweeney.
Will Hannahan understudy for the infield? Yes. And OF.
Will Donnie Murphy understudy for the infield? Yes.
Will both of them make the big league club? Yes.
In April, can Suzuki quadruple the number of homeruns that Jason Kendall hit in his entire Athletics’ career? I would say yes.
(optional, may be for a limited audience)
Most importantly, is Chavez still the hottest ballplayer on the field, or will he finally be replaced? No comment.
flipgatey3 - February 20, 2008
Missing Duchscherer
I think we will really miss Duke the lights-out long relief guy when Duke the starting pitcher is done after the fifth inning.
Oakville Athletic - February 20, 2008
Magic 8-Ball Says:
Alot.
Maybe.
Likely.
Hell, yes.
Unfortunately.
Affirmative.
Oui.
Hella.
Do we need a new one?
UGLY.
Not likely.
We try to focus on the FRONT of the jersey, 'member?
Long.
Elly.
Indeed. Via mule-back.
Barely.
Almost.
HA HA HA HA!!!
I just shat myself with doubt.
Over the hill. Six feet under.
Joe will be HUGE this year.
Better.
Not a chance.
Not in the least.
Define 'healthy.'
3 months.
IP.
We are.
Johan Santana.
I think so.
Oh, yeah. You have a point.
He will have one good month.
Street will return.
Nein.
Like 'Hate Me After I Give Up a Lead-Off HR and Almost Blow Another Save'?
Sure. How about something from 'Jodie Foster's Army'?
Not GMattJr and Torii Hunter.
Non.
How would that be different?
Let's hope so.
I say he can.
In a heartbeat.
Close, but no Gold Glove.
Occasionally.
Alot of opposing players.
Why not start?
I think he might.
They should.
Kurt will dominate.
Chavez gives straight men reason to doubt their....I mean. Yes. He is a fine ballplayer.
LAXile - February 20, 2008
I went back and matched up your answers...hilarious!
baseballgirl - February 21, 2008
thanks for the questions!
LAXile - February 21, 2008
Street Theme Song
I nominate the theme from Jaws.
jeffro - February 20, 2008
Still think Springsteen's Out in the Street is perfect.
The Dogfather - February 20, 2008
The more things change the more they stay the same
Foulke tweaked: Reliever Keith Foulke did not throw his scheduled side session Wednesday because of a mild injury. Geren said Foulke had a "slight, little strain" in his right calf and was day-to-day.
Uhhgghh!!!
link: http://oakland.athletics.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080220&content_id=2381465&vkey=spt2008news&fext=.jsp&c_id=oak
Let'sGoA's - February 20, 2008
Well, a calf strain put Kielty out for two months
so apparently we should expect Foulke back in late April...
PaulThomas - February 20, 2008
What about the Ball Park Effect for Runs for 2008?
I think most people have reasonably covered the above questions pretty well; however, I would be interested if the Ball Park Effect that McAfee has stays as low as it was last year or if it rebounds to what it was in 2006.
FYI, (it was 0.833 for R in 2007 (29th overall), it was 0.921 in 2006 (24th), and it was 1.064 in 2005 (7th), it was 1.012 in 2004 (13th))
I ask because quite honest I expect it to rebound to at least what the previous 3 year average... meaning that the A's offense will need to score significantly more runs in order to keep up with the opposing offenses. So that is my second question: Will the A's offense be better than 2007?
... unfortunately, I do not know if there were any field dimension changes last year... Okay... enough rambling...
bjk15 - February 20, 2008
Why are park effects so hard to understand?
It's just a function of what teams score at home versus what THE SAME TEAMS score on the road.
It has nothing to do with how good or bad an offense is.
It's also wildly unreliable from year to year. You need like 10 years worth of data to draw any serious conclusions from it. (BTW, this is why I'm suspicious of park-adjusted statistics-- at least ones that are adjusted using single season park factors.)
PaulThomas - February 20, 2008
Park Effects
I think last year was significant. Here are some long term Park Factor averages courtesy of Retrosheet.org this time:
25 year Average - 0.911
10 year Average - 0.945
5 year Average - 0.941
3 year Average - 0.938
2007 - 0.833
So, I would definitely say that last year was interesting as it was the lowest factor since 1995 and I wonder if it is a fluke or the beginning of an old trend:
1983 - 1997 Average 0.889
bjk15 - February 21, 2008
Maybe so
but El Nino, or global warming, or whatever, is going to affect both teams.
PaulThomas - February 21, 2008
Okay
is it the foul ball territory? What if, particularly the A's pitchers had dramatically lower HR rates last year among other things in 2007 and the 2008 pitchers do not comparatively?
PF = ((homeRS + homeRA)/(homeG)) / ((roadRS + roadRA)/(roadG))
I mean look, I get the equation and all I am saying is, is that what if 2007 was a fluke and that the home RA significantly increases to like 0.900? Yeah, the A's batters would still be included, but anyway let's look at the HR park factor averages because the HR away have remained pretty consistent:
Period Ave. - HR-PF
25 year - 0.906
10 year - 0.953
5 year - 0.927
3 year - 0.844
2007 - 0.786
1983 - 1997 - 0.875
Look at the 10, 5, 3, then present trend. That is significant as well. The 2007 year was the lowest Home/Road split since 1996. So, what that indicates to me is, is that the A's defense has been increasingly effective at home compared to the road or the A's pitchers bend on flyballs but do not break or it is a combination of both. Let's look at the actual numbers:
Averages - HR-H / HR-A
25 year - 153.8 / 171.4
10 year - 167.3 / 176.3
5 year - 156.0 / 168.8
3 year - 145.7 / 172.7
2007 - 136 / 173
1983 - 1997 - 144.9 / 168.1
The gap between home and away in the 10, 5, 3, and present trend go: 6, 13, 27, and 37 in HR. That is significant.
All of this means to me is, is that a change in defense, pitching and hitting for the A's directly affects the A's. And I think that with all of these Home/Away splits that is above means that the onus is for all three aspects of the A's to at least replicate last year's performances otherwise they will likely have a worse record. Yeah, I know that is a general statement, but with Swish and Haren gone for example (and maybe DJ), then there will be that much more pressure on the rest of the team to perform at a high level. That's just some 2 cents at ya.
bjk15 - February 21, 2008
OK, I think I see the issue here
You're saying that the A's need to exceed their performance from last year. I think what you really mean is that the A's need to exceed their NUMBERS from last year, which (assuming park factor regresses to the mean) is correct. They will need to score more runs to generate the same W-L record.
I just disagree with the characterization of unadjusted raw numbers as "performance".
PaulThomas - February 22, 2008
I resent...
All the Lenny hating going on around here. How can you say anything bad about a guy named Lenny? You just watch, I'm calling it here that Lenny will pitch his way into the rotation and prove all you naysayers wrong! Goooooo LENNY!!!! :)
raulhukilledu - February 20, 2008
test
finally logged in after many mishaps!!!
anyway the biggest question is who is gonna step up and become leaguer.
elephantman - February 21, 2008
You must Login with your SB Nation account and be a member of Athletics Nation to post a comment.