There is no question that the A's biggest needs are a SS, a hitter, and a veteran starting pitcher. Pretty much the only place the A's feel solid is in their bullpen - yet the bullpen is not quite as deep as it seems, because Oakland did trade Huston Street and that left the bullpen with three, not four, late-inning arms, one of which (Joey Devine) is untested in the closer role and coming off of a season shortened by injury, another of which (Brad Ziegler) is coming off a season no one could reproduce, and Jerry Blevins, who is "young and good" but not "seasoned and great." In other words, if other areas weren't more pressing, the A's would likely be interested in adding depth and strength to their bullpen.
On the free agent front, while Teixeira and Manny are chasing the big money, other sluggers like Burrell and Dunn are hardly under the radar due to their 30-40 HR numbers, while Derek Lowe figures to command plenty of interest and money because that's what successful starting pitchers do.
And then there's Trevor Hoffman. Here's a guy who was lowballed and ignored out of town by a Padre team that should be planning its first Trevor Hoffman Appreciation Day. And maybe it's just the overshadowing of so many other big names, but Hoffman does not appear to be drawing much attention from the other 29 teams, even though he is not only one of baseball's finest closers ever but he finished strong last year and would make a good closer or a great set-up man for any team.
So here's my question: As the A's pursue a solution at SS, another solid bat, a veteran starting pitcher, if the "bargain-of-the-offseason" proves to be Trevor Hoffman should the A's sign him, even though bargains too cost money that could be spent elsewhere?
0 recs | 139 comments
The all times saves leader
would be a great mentor for Devine to take over in 2010. Plus, it wouldn’t hurt to add veteran leadership.
green_and_gold - December 16, 2008
no reason for there not to be mutual interest...
we know beane will put Rajai Deais on the roster for the right price… so if hoffman comes cheap enough he can be a mentor to the young bullpen. Also, he would be close to home(relatively)
9Custs - December 16, 2008
He'd be about $8M/year....wouldn't he?
Why would he be a bargain?
WaddellCanseco - December 16, 2008
I'm not sure he'll get that kind of money
Of all the FAs out there, he just seems to have the least buzz/interest – now that may or may not reflect reality, because we don’t know what conversations have been had more quietly, but it could be that given his age, and that he’s not a SP, teams are focused elsewhere and not about to open their pocketbooks for him. So if he was ready to settle for half that, he’d be a bargain but he’d also be 4million more than not signing him.
Nico - December 16, 2008
At $4M he makes sense as possible pump and trade bait at midseason.
WaddellCanseco - December 16, 2008
He wouldnt be a bargain to get
I guess I would be ok with it, if it was the last thing we did on top of some other moves, but Hoffman is pretty close to not being able to throw over 75 mph any more so Im not sure I would want him on my team. Spend the money elsewhere. I dont really get why people would want him anyways, he would basically be an expensive Keith Foulke next year.
pbra17 - December 16, 2008
interesting idea, Nico
At this point, unless Beane pulls several proverbial rabbits out of hat/aces out of his sleeve, I’d be inclined to stock up on as many bargain-priced free agents and buy-low trades as possible, irrespective of position or roster needs—and then hold a fire sale in July.
monkeyball - December 16, 2008
yes this is a good strategy
but I doubt we would get much for hoffman in a July fire sale b/c of his age and position etc. … most teams are smarter than that now
johnjahafanclub - December 16, 2008
Wouldn't Milwaukee and the Mets have been pretty interested this past year?
Nico - December 16, 2008
If they're interested they can just sign Hoffman now
WaddellCanseco - December 16, 2008
I meant at the trade deadline, when they were eyeing Street and others
The Mets now have K-Rod and Putz; things they change over time.
Nico - December 16, 2008
I'll take "Diapers" for $1000, Alex
monkeyball - December 16, 2008
Rabbits, seals, sheep
WaddellCanseco - December 16, 2008
Totally.
You never know who will get hurt and leave a gaping hole on some team.
Svidrigailov - December 16, 2008
Our free Agent Signings
cannot be traded away lightly. I suspect we are not the world’s favorite destination right now in part because getting traded is such a constant risk. Trades uproot players. To sign Hoffman, and then trade him midseason (or to do this to multiple players, as you seem to suggest we should) would damage our ability to sign FA’s even further.
ohmangoAs - December 16, 2008
Gotta be upfront about it, at least in this sort of case
Tell the guy you plan on potentially trading him midyear. If he doesn’t like that, either give him a no-trade clause or wish him luck and send him on his way.
PaulThomas - December 17, 2008
I'm sanguine with that result
1. We already have that reputation
2. What PT said
3. If and when we start offering big money to premiere FAs, the money will outweigh the rep
4. It’s looking less and less likely that we’ll be pursuing premiere FAs in the next 2-3 years anyway
5. Beane’s no good at assessing/negotiating with non-washed-up/untouchable/undesirable FAs and probably shouldn’t/won’t bother
monkeyball - December 17, 2008
He wasn't exactly ignored
Though the situation wasn’t handled particularly gracefully, the team did leave an offer on the table for more than one month without an answer from their closer.
Hoffman did ask for a meeting with owner John Moores, which the team appeared to grant as long as Hoffman’s agent was not there. The idea was to ensure the request was not an end run around team management and an attempt to use the personal feelings Moores and convince the owner to make a poor business decision. Which incidentally is exactly why Moores hired Sandy Alderson in the first place, so Moores wouldn’t be tempted to interfere with baseball operations.
Alderson also stated that the $4 million dollar deal on the table was negotiable, my guess is could have gone into the $6-$7 million dollar range, with a vesting second year option. Of course, the deal would also include a wink wink guaranteed closer gig, and all the benefits Trevor would receive by continuing his career in San Diego.
While not impossible, I think it’s highly unlikely another team will beat that offer, at least by enough of a margin to make it worth Hoffman’s while to leave. And that isn’t because he’s been “forgotten”, but more along the lines is due to his poor performance the past few years in situations on a national scale, among other things.
Melvin Nieves - December 16, 2008
Thanks for the expanded info
Sounds like a team offering him a one-year deal might indeed get a bargain, in that he’s still a very good pitcher, just not an elite closer, who probably won’t be offered what he’s worth.
Nico - December 16, 2008
I still think he's going to get paid partly as a "proven veteran" and "FHOF" rather than purely
for his pitching skills. I don’t see how that makes him a bargain.
WaddellCanseco - December 16, 2008
Hoffman requested a meeting with
Moores AND Alderson AND Towers:
rfloh - December 17, 2008
I didn't mean to imply otherwise
But I think there are lots of details about what happened that we’ll never know, so it’s kind of silly to make too many judgments.
Melvin Nieves - December 17, 2008
What's he worth in terms of WAR?
DyeLongJustice - December 16, 2008
Just extremely roughly -- tRA* has him at 3.54.
If the average reliever is at 4.50, then he’s something like 4.5 RAA
If the replacement reliever is at 5.50, then he’s something like 9.4 RAR or 1 WAR.
A 3.54 tRA* looks pretty good on the A’s. Some 2008 A’s tRA*:
Devine – 3.31
Ziegler – 3.95
Street — 4.05
Blevins – 4.30
Casilla – 4.44
But the overall impact isn’t much given the low number of innings. He only makes sense to me if you believe the A’s are “going for it” in 2009, and he’s used in very high leverage situations. Otherwise I’d try to develop some of the younger guys for the future pen — Mazzaro, Outman, Carignan, Lansford, Rodriguez, Bailey.
WaddellCanseco - December 16, 2008
thanks for the info, fyi
DyeLongJustice - December 16, 2008
BTW I used 43 IP in these numbers
WaddellCanseco - December 16, 2008
sounds fair, assuming he doesn't implode as a result of his age
So his fair market value is going to be around 4 mil…exactly what Nico said above. If we’re still ‘going for it’ and we can get him for 4m or less, i don’t see why not, i suppose. But i’d first want to use that money on other more pressing needs, like say a SP or SS.
DyeLongJustice - December 16, 2008
I'm assuming a "try to compete" mode
(I don’t like the term “going for it” because it implies at the expense of the future – blow your wad in trying to win in the coming year). So you’re still hoping to address SS, add a starting pitcher if you can, etc. Spending, say, $3million on Hoffman makes that harder, but not so much harder that it would hamstring you from making another move that became available.
Nico - December 16, 2008
But you're also not trading Holliday for a young SS and/or prospects in that case
Nor Duke.
WaddellCanseco - December 16, 2008
Nope
That’s not the direction I currently see Beane going.
Nico - December 16, 2008
(Flips a bitch.....heads in wrong direction....)
mrod - December 16, 2008
If your head is in the wrong direction,
for you does that mean it’s DOWN your ass?
Nico - December 16, 2008
I thought it was up my ass?
No, that’s Fu-CKALL!
mrod - December 16, 2008
Well the $4M would be higher if you included leverage, and if you thought he was good for
60 IP. The 43 IP was his 2008 number rounded. Heck if I were his agent I could probably argue for $13M or something.
WaddellCanseco - December 16, 2008
And what's he worth in terms of GWAR?
Nick - December 16, 2008
i'll rec that
flipgatey3 - December 16, 2008
Great question
How much fake blood is he really worth?
kbtoyz - December 17, 2008
As long as it's possible...
…to devote the next several weeks of my life to speculating about Hoffman, I’m game.
Something’s got to fill the hole left by Furcal.
GreenNGoldSooner - December 16, 2008
A hole left by someone leaving who was never here
Sounds like a line from a Hemingway novel.
Nico - December 16, 2008
a furchole?
pronounce that how you wish
alea iacta est - December 16, 2008
In Boston, they pronounce
Rafael’s name “fu-CKALL” – now that’s how they pronounce in my house too.
Nico - December 16, 2008
What was Cindi's reaction?
Was she heartbroken?
mrod - December 16, 2008
To yesterday's haircut? Yes.
To today’s news about Furcal? She’s still trying to sort out “which Los Angeles Dodger of Los Angeles player he is – the one with the dreadlocks or the other white one?”
Nico - December 16, 2008
Is she talking about the cowboy on the motorcycle?
mrod - December 16, 2008
I want to see Beane finish his other business first.
Then, we can start talking about Trevor Hoffman.
For some reason, I just can’t get excited about adding him to the 2009 roster right this moment.
“Daddy, I want a brand new shiny shortstop for Christmas! Do you think Santa Beane is listening?”.
mrod - December 16, 2008
"I don't know, I'll ask the elf -
Hey Forst!"
Nico - December 16, 2008
Precisely....
:{
mrod - December 16, 2008
so other ss options?
cabrera 2yr/ 12mil?
9Custs - December 16, 2008
Dream on
PaulThomas - December 17, 2008
God, please.......No!
mrod - December 16, 2008
I don't see why the "God please..No!" response,
other than his reputation for being a selfish d/bag. As a player, at that salary he is almost identical to Crosby, who if traded then makes it a salary wash. Cabrera is a two-year solution who will hit like a decent #9 hitter (maybe .270/.320/.380 with good speed and good contact skills) and who will play a decent SS.
And I’m not going to go ape-doodoo over the 2nd round draft pick. Given the state of SS right now, it’s a pretty minor concern compared to “playing Crosby,” “trying P/P and hoping for the best,” or “trading the farm to land an elite SS.”
Nico - December 16, 2008
I'd rather have Hu -- better defense, cheaper, more upside
And it’s not like his team values him that much.
WaddellCanseco - December 16, 2008
His team just failed to land a SS
and DeJesus isn’t ready. I’m not sure they’ll part with Hu now – had Furcal signed with LAD, I’d be more optimistic.
Nico - December 16, 2008
True. I'm still interested in a 3-4 year option though.
What about Brignac or Bartlett?
WaddellCanseco - December 16, 2008
i don't really think hu is all that good
every time i’ve watched him he’s either made an error or had a bad at-bat. maybe i am jinxing him.
flipgatey3 - December 16, 2008
if we do get him
your no longer allowed to view a’s games
travdog6 - December 17, 2008
Was he playing while blind?
WaddellCanseco - December 17, 2008
maybe
flipgatey3 - December 17, 2008
It's an interesting idea
If he’s cheap and Beane thinks he’ll be worth more in a trade at midseason than a 2nd round pick, it’s worth a look. Of all the things on this team to worry about, bullpen is pretty far down the list right now.
MrIncognito - December 16, 2008
Hoffman wasn't offered arbitration.
Melvin Nieves - December 17, 2008
Never mind, I'm confused.
Melvin Nieves - December 17, 2008
Let Ziggy remain the A's closer
Waiting appears to be the hardest thing for A’s fans to do. I’m thinking the A’s should just chill until something obvious presents itself.
Ran - December 16, 2008
Dude.
Repeat after me.
AAAAHHHHHHHHHH!!!!
WE’RE ALL GONNA DIE!!!!!!
oblique - December 16, 2008
Nooooo!
I’m not ready for the fork!
lynnzgal - December 16, 2008
Spoon?
oblique - December 16, 2008
Right here?
In front of everyone?
GeorgiaBoy - December 16, 2008
Trust me,
it would not be a first.
lynnzgal - December 16, 2008
And besides
Spooning in front of everyone is better than forking in front of everyone, right?
oblique - December 16, 2008
Indeed.
So much more discreet, and tonight, well yeah!
lynnzgal - December 16, 2008
Funny!
alox - December 17, 2008
We don't need Hoffman
Hopefully Devine will do most of the closing
Ziggy is great but lefties were starting to get to him at the end of the season.
I guess Geren is going to use them both depending on the situation
Trainman - December 17, 2008
Ziggy did insanely great for a rookie
Sample size is kind a small of course. But I agree that Ziggy and Devine are a powerful one two punch no mater who goes last. I imagine that the A’s are looking elsewhere for improvement.
Ran - December 17, 2008
Two relievers doth not depth make
And one missed time last season with injury. The bullpen is in relatively good shape, but it’s not as awesome as one might think – losing Street really does make a difference.
Nico - December 17, 2008
Shrug
Schroder is better than he gets credit for, and there are plenty of reinforcements on the way.
It’s not a problem area.
PaulThomas - December 17, 2008
You're basing optimism on a player
who brings his keyboard with him when he plays defense? Which reminds me: If Snoopy is still available, I think he’s an upgrade at SS.
Nico - December 17, 2008
Peppermint Patty has a higher OPS
mikev - December 17, 2008
You're weird, ma'am
Nico - December 17, 2008
Looks like I have to be the adult here and say
WHU-WHA-WU WAH WAH
5Aces - December 18, 2008
Put Ziggy back in the "runner on first" situation
and see how many double plays he can get in a row. This should be where he is used anyway.
adragon - December 18, 2008
Are you new or something?
Default mode is always PANIC.
pam5981 - December 16, 2008
I swear, we deal with this every offseason...
oblique - December 16, 2008
Thank god,
we have each other.
lynnzgal - December 16, 2008
Ken Blames McAfee
Apparently, we suck unless we get a new stadium.
Masaryk - December 16, 2008
If the shoe fits then I guess the A's...
have to wear it. I have often been embarrassed by some of the crowd behavior at the Coli. Especially now that I have visited other parks and been treated well by other teams fans. Our crowd treats visiting fans in a disgraceful way.
IM4Oakgal - December 16, 2008
I've not seen that.
I’ve been embarrassed by the way Raider fans have behaved, but never by how A’s fans treat visitors. Visiting baseball fans have been awful on more occasions by far. Jmho.
lynnzgal - December 17, 2008
Really?
I have seen it more times than I care to remember.
IM4Oakgal - December 17, 2008
True.
But I always did wonder why you kicked that little Royals fan down the stairs from the upper deck. I’m sure the little bastard had it coming mind you…. ;)
alox - December 17, 2008
LOL
I used to sit on the upper deck a lot. I did feel like kicking a Halo fan over the railing once…It’s annoying to sit by fans of that team. I often find them so smug.
IM4Oakgal - December 17, 2008
Unruly crowd?
What unruly crowd? The 10,000 fans on a Monday night in May really scares anyone? Please, when the place is filled its always a fun and respectful place, and when its empty, sure the diehards can get crazy, but who is really freaked out by a 1/5 filled stadium?
kbtoyz - December 17, 2008
The A's accountant?
Nico - December 17, 2008
As for this thread...
I think the A’s should pursue a SP and another quality bat…I won’t mention BB…it gets folks too riled up.
IM4Oakgal - December 16, 2008
Hmmm....Billy Beane...Bobby Brownlie....Betty Jo Bradley.....
WaddellCanseco - December 17, 2008
kerry wood got 10 mil a year
and hes unproven and have a troubled past with injuries
i dont see trevor hoffman being a bargain, there will be a team that will sign him
for a good chunk of cash.
plus the A’s need hitting, and maybe some one to anchor the rotation. the bullpen is fine
Wreckonized - December 17, 2008
How the heck is Kerry Wood unproven?
WaddellCanseco - December 17, 2008
Unproven in that he's struck out 20 batters in a game?
Twice?
mikev - December 17, 2008
Unproven and injury prone are not the same thing.
Kerry Wood is very, very proven.
Blicks - December 17, 2008
this could be the bargain of the offseason
Rocco Baldelli just got a killer Christmas present
link
scatterbrian - December 17, 2008
great news
i think everyone is rooting for rocco
travdog6 - December 17, 2008
Damn you, Earl Holloway!
Nico - December 17, 2008
Yeah, 34% off the cover price at Amazon
But it seems a bit heavy as a gift idea.
LowcountryJoe - December 17, 2008
It’s always amusing when someone whose highest educational achievement is a liberal arts BA tries to write economic history. Actual economists are not so impressed.
MrIncognito - December 17, 2008
Interestingly,
There are many libertarian-leaning economists that have echoed and praised Shlaes work. And then there’s Volcker and Levitt 9thogh not a traine economist) who have blurbs on the back cover of this book. Though I can understand why Krugman would be put off: his sacred cow being gored.
LowcountryJoe - December 17, 2008
Praise from libertarian-leaning economists strikes me as an excellent reason to dismiss someone's work as rubbish
PaulThomas - December 17, 2008
I consider waking up in the morning to be
an excellent reason to dismiss someone’s work as rubbish.
Nico - December 17, 2008
I don't even need to be awake.
mikev - December 17, 2008
It was actually a trick -
Seriously, who wakes up in the morning?
Nico - December 17, 2008
Depends on the time zone.
mikev - December 17, 2008
Not a big fan of economic liberty, I take it.
LowcountryJoe - December 17, 2008
Guys, maybe call it a dialog before someone gets "hurt"?
Nico - December 17, 2008
A's fans
I have to agree with IM4Oakgal. I have been attending A’s games since 1969, and the way many fans behave in Oakland is embarrassing. I saw Pete Rose get hit by tomatoes while playing in the outfield in during the ‘72 World Series, fans hitting Royals bullpen pitchers with umbrellas during a game in ’76, Rick Manning given a shower of beer while playing center for the Indians, the knife thrown at Billy North, etc. I’ve been to Mariners, Dodgers, and Angels’ stadiums, and fans don’t act that way. It’s no wonder free agents check Oakland off their list first, when deciding where to play.
Flamethrower - December 17, 2008
But this would argue *for* signing with the A's
if only to make sure you’re on the home team whenever you play at the Coliseum ;-)
green star oakland - December 17, 2008
This would be relevant if you referenced anything this millenium
kbtoyz - December 17, 2008
I
would love it if they signed the Big Unit. I’m actually hoping for it.
Dub_TC - December 17, 2008
The A's already signed this winter's best bargain
He plays second base and has a horn sticking out of his forehead.
PaulThomas - December 17, 2008
6/40 for Pedroia is more of a bargain than Ellis' deal, no?
mikev - December 17, 2008
Not really
Pedroia was making league minimum next year, and then had two years of arby coming up, so the Bosox had a lot more leverage and Pedroia wasn’t on the open market to begin with.
Also, while Pedroia has been worth about 15 runs more with the bat, Ellis makes up a good chunk of that difference with the glove. Unless you figure on Ellis collapsing or Pedroia improving significantly, they come up pretty similarly in terms of dollar per marginal win over the next two years.
MrIncognito - December 17, 2008
You can't compare pre-arb contracts to free agent contracts.
and Mark Ellis would have been a free agent had the A’s not resigned him.
Blicks - December 17, 2008
Juan Rivera is the bargain of the offseason
Drays bay has a good argument for signing John Rheinecker as a LOOGY.
connie mack - December 17, 2008
The only good argument I can think of is
that it would restrict Rheinecker to facing only one batter per game.
Nico - December 17, 2008
Here's my theory
I think Billy Beane knew all along that Furcal was never intending to come here. I think he met with Furcal in a posturing move to get Atlanta or the Dodgers to get him there in order to get them to free up Escobar or Johnson or Hu. There is no way Crosby is our SS next year. I also think Beane undervalues closers and will just have a closer by committee with Devine/Ziggy/Blevins. That’s just my little theory. Other free agents have had no problem signing here. See Frank Thomas/Esteban Loiaza/Mike Piazza. What do you all think of this theory?
A'sfansince1970 - December 17, 2008
Johnson should not be allowed to play SS, period.
But, besides that, I say this actually might work.
Blicks - December 17, 2008
Why not. He would be able to throw out anyone at first with his arm
Eastbayjim - December 17, 2008
The idea of Randy Johnson at SS made me laugh.
WaddellCanseco - December 17, 2008
Who would dare catch that?
A’s would set another injury record.
Ran - December 17, 2008
I dunno about
Beane manipulating other teams to open an opportunity for himself. I always felt Beane was attempting to fill the shortstop hole in 2010 and beyond and not so much in 09. It would have been nice to dump Crosby a year early, but I kind of doubt that Beane ever allows himself to fall into a position of desperation. I’m certain he’s content to play out Bobby’s string this season and perhaps fill the future SS needs as the opportunities present themselves.
I don’t think Furcal was ever that important to him. It seems to me that he’s always planning for a year or two down the road.
alox - December 17, 2008
So the Holliday trade was about the draft picks?
WaddellCanseco - December 17, 2008
Maybe it was about having the option to try to contend in 2009
if enough pieces fell into place. Furcal was one, R. Johnson another, Giambi or Nick Johnson a third.
Nico - December 17, 2008
Who knows how Beane is viewing the
Holiday trade? The mans not stupid and he’s been doing this for quite a while now. He didn’t give up all that much for him. Besides, he may believe that he will be able to flip him at the trade deadline for more pieces. Maybe even a SS. More than likely, he viewed it as an opportunity not to be passed on.
alox - December 17, 2008
Maybe he felt about the same way as the rest of us
watching the A’s score 0 or 1 run 25% of the games.
Nico - December 17, 2008
Namely, he liked it so much he thought he'd help the 2010 team repeat the experience?
PaulThomas - December 17, 2008
Right this makes sense. It was such a good deal he couldn't pass it up.
At worst he trades Holliday for more than Street and Carlos were worth. But then Wolff confused my be deliberately stating that he’d rather see Holliday walk than trade him.
WaddellCanseco - December 17, 2008
No at worst would be...
Holliday gets hurt and loses all value.
IM4Oakgal - December 17, 2008
No at worst would be...
He dies unsuccessfully trying to break up a fatal fight between Cahill and Anderson.
Nico - December 17, 2008
Heh..
You can’t top that for disaster.
IM4Oakgal - December 17, 2008
So then you didn't hear about Suzuki.
Nico - December 17, 2008
I did hear about ...
how the team plane went down…now top that!
IM4Oakgal - December 17, 2008
It crash landed -
only Crosby and Larry Davis survived.
Nico - December 17, 2008
That was worth the ....
23 minute wait.
IM4Oakgal - December 17, 2008
sign him
the bullpen needs one veteran arm out there, especially if Devine’s back starts acting up again.
jclay09 - December 19, 2008
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