Billy Beane, circa September 2004, from In Billy We Trust: Billy Beane Visits Athletics Nation, Part Two:
The best team that we've had here and the one that was the most disappointing, and this is going to sound crazy, but it was the 2001 team. I thought that was a great, great team. It had everything. It was a dynamic club, it had speed, it had defense, it had everything you'd want in that kind of a situation.
(Italics courtesy of me).
Billy Beane's teams of the past decade-plus have not often been characterized as dynamic, speedy or particularly strong defensively...at least not all at the same time. And yet, the man himself believes his best work came when his team had all three such components back in 2001. I think that since that time, he's been attempting to re-create the multi-dimensional aspect of that club. But with limited payroll flexibility for the better part of this decade, he's had to settle for whatever he could cobble together with his meager resources.
But now with an owner willing to spend a little and a young, relatively inexpensive core to build around, Beane may finally have the "perfect storm" brewing from which to realize his goal of fielding a truly "dynamic" club for 2009. I think Beane took a big first step toward that goal by trading for Matt Holliday. Holliday not only brings a much needed righty power bat with good contact skills, but he's also a very good baserunner (28-for-30 in stolen base chances last year) and he's a solid defender in left field. Holliday is quite the offensive dynamo all by himself, but Beane is obviously not stopping there.
With his aggressive courtship of Rafael Furcal, Beane is giving the strongest indication yet that he's placing a premium on adding a "true" leadoff hitter and speed to the top of the batting order in an attempt to better balance the offensive attack. On top of that, Beane may also go back to his OBP/power roots and re-acquire Jason Giambi.
If the grand plan were to come together in such a way (i.e. free agent contracts to Furcal & Giambi) the A's could feature 4 players who could all conceivably hit 30 or more homers next season (Cust, Holliday, Giambi, Chavez) and 4 players who could conceivably steal 20 or more bases (Furcal, Holliday, Ellis, Davis). When was the last time that happened? That's what is called "balance" folks and Beane is definitely trying to build it into his system.
There's probably a lot more work necessary to make the pitching staff truly dynamic for 2009, but that's for another day...
0 recs | 104 comments
I agree
I think the A’s are trying to be diversified and dynamic. Holliday is an outstanding baserunner and one of the things that Beane has always preached is that stolen bases aren’t bad, it’s getting caught that is bad. Giving away outs on the basepaths. But if you have a guy with a ridiculous percentage like Holliday then you can set him free and generate more offense on the paths.
I think the 2009 team is going to be a lot more exciting and varied in terms of offense than any team we’re seen around here in a while, especially if they do successfully sign Furcal.
Tyler Bleszinski - November 30, 2008
Holliday does seem "holy grail"ish, making one wonder
just how aggressively Beanewolff will pursue him beyond 2009. Maybe he’ll love Oakland, dump Boras…Well, anyway…
Nico - November 30, 2008
maybe we should
take it in turns to invite him over for tea and cake?
just to make him feel welcome in the area, like. to the best of my understanding, this is way to go about these things.
alea iacta est - November 30, 2008
Locking him in Jennifer's basement is another possibility
“You can come out when you sign an extension! Also, there’s tea and cake!”
Nico - November 30, 2008
He'd have to share the basement with Sweeney though.
I think that Jennifer’s basement is reserved space.
Blicks - November 30, 2008
More people will come if we have punch and pie!
Gallagher's Watermelons - November 30, 2008
happy hollidays!
etc.
i suspect that’s not the last time i’ll use that little gem all year
alea iacta est - November 30, 2008
Spike the punch and they'll stay.
Blicks - November 30, 2008
I don't think it's conceivable that Giambi hits 30 homers next season
He only had 32 last year in a park that was designed for left-handed hitters to hit home runs.
thejd44 - November 30, 2008
It's probably more conceivable than Chavy hitting 30
If 100% healthy 100% of the time, Chavy might have more like 25HR power post surgeries, and the odds of him being 100% healthy 100% of the time are, like, not 100%. I’m hoping for 130 games, and 20/80 with a high OBP (.370), if all goes well.
Nico - November 30, 2008
Has Chavez ever had a .370 OBP in his life?
Actually, thanks to the internet… he’s had it once, in 2004. Man, he was good in 2004. F***ing Rhodes.
Anyway, I think a league-average OBP would be about as much as we could hope for. Something like .270/.340/.450. Which would still be a damn sight better than what the A’s saw out of the position in 2008.
PaulThomas - November 30, 2008
I think he's a more mature hitter than he was,
and won’t tank as much against LHP (he was already making strides), and for whatever reason even at his worst he seemed to strike fear into opposing pitchers even when he was hitting without arms. Maybe .370 is a bit lofty, but I could certainly see .350-.360, which is not that different.
Nico - November 30, 2008
you knows what's funny about everyone saying that?
Last year Giambi did hit 32 homers.
BUT
How many of those homers did he hit at NY?
16
How many did he hit away?
16
Over his career Giambi has hit 396 homers, 196 of them being at his home park and 200 being at the away park.
Franky, I’m surprised no one has bothered to look this up…
stranahanahan - November 30, 2008
"Please Stop Abusing Jason Giambi's Home/Road Splits"
If you ever find yourself using home/road splits to make an argument, please rethink doing so. Also, why not rethink your life philosophy while you’re at it?
[/Dr. Phil]
PaulThomas - November 30, 2008
This has to be rec'd for how you got the point across
Blicks - November 30, 2008
c'mon PT, hold on a second...
Im not defending Giambi so dont use your condescending bullshit with me until you hear me out. I, for one, dont want Giambi, hes too pricey, too risky, and frankly there is nowhere he can be used. Find one post I’ve made of recent that advocates a Giambi signing. Cuz you won’t find it.
I’m simply saying that I don’t believe his homer numbers (this is disregarding his slugging percentage because its typically been much better of recent at Yankee stadium) would diminish much at McAfee.
Again, all Im saying is that his homer numbers would probably show little of a decline, while most of his other stats will.
Simply put, Im saying that there is a better argument than that for why not to sign Giambi…
stranahanahan - November 30, 2008
Hey, ease off, man, I was joking
I thought the “Dr. Phil” thing would get the point across.
Still better to use park-adjusted numbers than home/road splits though.
PaulThomas - November 30, 2008
i know
and I agree with using park-adjusted numbers, I’m really just pointing out the lack of a real thought process in the argument of “Giambi won’t hit as many homers in Oakland”…
On a side note, I just had a friend go on the Dr. Phil show and he said that Dr. Phil is a douchebag…
stranahanahan - November 30, 2008
Dr. Phil being a douchebag was precisely the point of the joke
PaulThomas - November 30, 2008
[you-point-curvyarrow.img]
oakinboston - November 30, 2008
PT can you back that up with statistics? How is Dr. Phil at home and away?
Is his home adjusted numbers that much different than away?
Eastbayjim - November 30, 2008
He does well in parks where the wind will
blowhard.
Nico - November 30, 2008
sorry buddy
that was an overreaction!!!
stranahanahan - November 30, 2008
I dealt cards for Dr. Phil when he hosted a poker night at his home.
I am still waiting for the payment he promised me. What a prick.
miggyk2 - November 30, 2008
He turned me into a newt!
oblique - November 30, 2008
....it got better...
oblique - November 30, 2008
"Stop abusing PaulThomas' abuse of Dr. Phil!
You seriously need to re-examine your life if you’re abusing abuses abusively. And I plan to keep talking so that nothing can get accomplished."
[Dr. Philibuster]
Nico - November 30, 2008
"Stop talking"
You seriously need to just cut it with all this “statistics” crap. Giambi’s the man and will hit 50 homers next year at the Coliseum.
[/Dr. Philistine]
oblique - November 30, 2008
Dr. Phil would be proud.
Blicks - November 30, 2008
Thanks!
Would you like a flower?
[/Dr. Philodendron]
oblique - November 30, 2008
Or would you like --
Oh never mind.
{/Dr. Latio}
Nico - November 30, 2008
You and your cunning linguistics.
still bills kingdom - November 30, 2008
I consider myself an oral historian
Nico - November 30, 2008
I guess I haven't been watching enough Dr. Phil
What’s the big problem looking at a player’s Home/Road splits?
grover - November 30, 2008
I'll just link you to the original posts
Link
Link
PaulThomas - November 30, 2008
Ya know
I love the Oakland A’s, I love this site, I love all the posts, and I love Eric Chavez…..but you guys have GOT to get over the fact that Chavez will never be who we all thought he could become. I would be 150% shocked if Chavez not only scored 500 at bats this season, but compiled 30 home runs in the process.
Can we just accept who he is? Can we stop expecting him to be a top 25 hitter in the league? He is a fantastic defensive 3B with a career 830 OPS.
I’m not hating on Chavez, and I would love to see him hit 35 homers this year and OPS 900, but it’s all time we start appreciating Chavez for what he is and stop expecting him to be what he isn’t.
WhatElse - November 30, 2008
I'm in the camp that believes Chavy will come back "strong" in 2009
But by strong, I mean that if he doesn’t try to play more than 130 games, tops, he could hit around .270/.370 with 20 HRs and play a great 3B with a weak throwing arm.
Nico - November 30, 2008
This is exactly what people were saying
before 2008. I have no reason to trust that Chavy does anything, really.
hero66 - November 30, 2008
The situations are different, because before 2008
Chavy and the team decided – for reasons that probably make sense to no one but Larry Davis and a drunk gerbil – to do some of the necessary surgery work but not all of it. And Chavez did not feel great after, and consequently Beane did not respond to the outlook by “adding a big piece,” he responded to the outlook by trading Haren and Swisher.
Nico - November 30, 2008
+++1
swerv - November 30, 2008
Chavvy gives us no reason
to doubt that, IF, he is healthy, that he won’t
a. give us a solid glove at third
b. hit .250
c. drive in 80 runs
d. hit 25-30 hrs.
If. and of course, if if’s and but’s were candies and nuts we’d all be happy squirrels.
OptimistPrime - November 30, 2008
Pretty much agree with this.
UncleLeo - November 30, 2008
My Chavy expectations are rather low-ish
As long as he’s
1. Healthy (as in, at least 120-130 games)
2. Plays the defense like he always has
3. Hitting decently. I’ll take a .750 OPS from him.
I’m pretty happy
Blicks - November 30, 2008
I would disagree with the idea that Giambi makes the team any more "balanced" ...
since, more than likely, you are effectively replacing a guy who will put up something like 15-10 and quality defense with a guy who will put up 30-1 with terrible defense.
I doubt BB cares that much about having a “balanced” team … I just think that the players thought to be traditionally favored by Moneyball, say a guy like Ryan Howard or Prince Fielder, have become pretty thoroughly over valued, leaving defense that gets the job done but doesn’t result in a lot of Web Gems, effective base running that does not result in gaudy steal totals, on base skills among guys who don’t weigh 250 pounds and gap power as highly desirable but generally under appreciated abilities.
The seemingly big things — massive power and on base skills — have become unaffordable. (while the team may have 3 or 4 30 HR guys, it isn’t likely to have any 40 or 50 HR guys) So instead, he’s focusing on the little things.
devo - November 30, 2008
Agreed.
I’ve always thought that it was more about picking up and exploiting market inefficiencies and undervalued skillsets (defense, etc.) to build an effective team.
Blicks - November 30, 2008
This is sort of a peeve of mine.
I know a lot of people who read Moneyball and thought it was all about walks and on base percentage. They missed the point.
Jack Cust is valuable damnit - November 30, 2008
Well, obviously it is a peeve of yours
Your moniker is of a market inefficiency.
Blicks - November 30, 2008
I wouldn't consider it particularly "efficient" or "digging up the undervalued"...
by essentially paying market rate or more to a 31-year old injury risk to a free agent contract of, probably, 4 years in length. If gap power and decent speed on the basepaths were really all that undervalued, you’d think that there would be a way to add that to the team in a much more cost-efficient and less-risky way than to go for Furcal on a free agent deal.
That’s what makes me think that Beane has some fondness for Furcal’s all-around game. When was the last time that Beane and Company laid on this type of full court press on a highly desirable player? I would think that the last, and maybe the only time he did that, was for Inoa and you could tell that they REALLY wanted that guy for a variety of reasons…and none of those reasons were because he (Inoa) was “undervalued”. In fact, paying a 16-year old Dominican 4+ million (and outbidding the Yankees and Reds in the process) before he even throws a single pitch was pretty darn riskey…pretty darn un-“Moneyball” in my interpretation of the term/theme of the book, which seemed like a treatise on how to minimize risk but maximize value…
Taj Adib - November 30, 2008
I think he's pursing Furcal because he believes
that if he overpays Furcal a little (but not a lot) it will sitll be worth it, due to how much Furcal can improve the team’s chances in 2009, and in 2010-11, based on the current payroll situation and on what’s out there – including within the A’s own system.
Nico - November 30, 2008
Sure it is ...
because of the real life replacement levels … it’s far more cost efficient to replace probably the worst player on the team, even if the replacement himself isn’t nearly as cost efficient as he might be …
And how many high end free agents get signed for appropriate contracts? A free agent who isn’t over paid IS under valued …
devo - November 30, 2008
Adding Giambi seems
like it would be counterproductive to the plan. Sure he can still be a high OBP/OPS guy but either he or Cust would then have to play the field and there goes the “dynamic defense” and kills some of the flexibility that Beane also covets. The offensive boost to the lineup would surely be canceled out by the defensive ineptitude.
jbxchico - November 30, 2008
I just want to point out...
That Jack Cust > Jason Giambi.
And LF is harder than 1B. Thank you.
Jack Cust is valuable damnit - November 30, 2008
More like
Cust = Giambi
And 1B is the only positiion easier than LF.
jbxchico - November 30, 2008
No. Cust > Giambi
Custian defense, albeit bad, is better than Giambino defense.
Cust is also in his prime, while Giambino is poised to decline, and Cust hit his HRs in a pitcher’s park, which Yankee Stadium is not. They both provide relatively similar offensive production, so they’d be equal if both were to be DH’ed.
When taking into account contract status, Cust > Giambi, and its not even close.
Blicks - November 30, 2008
Plus
Giambi is more of an injury liability.
Jack Cust is valuable damnit - November 30, 2008
Yeah. That too.
Blicks - November 30, 2008
Well, obviously if you take into account contract, he's better ...
and the only reason that we’re having this conversation is because Giambi is well past his prime …
The first is a truism and the second is irrelevant and non-germane because Giambi of 2001 >>>> Cust of 200_ …
devo - November 30, 2008
Oh of course Giambi of 2001 and his prime is better than Cust will probably ever be
I was talking about right now.
Blicks - November 30, 2008
Which is why the fact that Giambi is past his prime is a precursor to the discussion ...
not a valid argument germane to the discussion itself.
devo - December 1, 2008
Custs contract
only makes him a better value, not a better player. Offensively they are equal except Cust had a ton more strike outs, a lot of those came in RBI situations which contributed to him having about 20 less steaks.
jbxchico - December 1, 2008
Wow. Just Wow.
Who could possibly explain why Giambi has more RBIs than Cust last year? Might it be his team has other professional hitters?
Cust was better than Giambi last year (and the year before).
nevermoor - December 1, 2008
A team dependent stat measures a hitter's worth now?
Please look at the guys in front of Cust, as opposed to the guys in front of Giambino.
A’s 2008 OBP: .318 (T-28th in MLB)
Yankees 2008 OBP: .342 (6th in MLB)
Difference, yes. Huge difference. That’s why Giambi has more RBIs than Cust.
Blicks - December 1, 2008
Except DH.
mikev - November 30, 2008
I don't agree with your reasoning behind the A's pursuit of Furcal
I don’t think Beane is as interested in pursuing a “true” lead-off hitter as he is in finding a SS capable of providing some offense. It just happens that Furcal’s contributions come as a traditional lead-off type.
And the Giambi speculation is just that, especially since there’s no good place to play him in the Oakland line-up.
grover - November 30, 2008
"2nd DH"?
Nico - November 30, 2008
3rd lunch?
grover - November 30, 2008
4th meal?
mikev - November 30, 2008
Taco Bell FTW.
Blicks - November 30, 2008
5th wheel :-(
oblique - November 30, 2008
6th sense
iglew - November 30, 2008
7th sentence
Nico - November 30, 2008
8th leg
Blicks - November 30, 2008
NINE GOLDEN ONION RINGS!!!
grover - November 30, 2008
TEN FINGERS!!!!
You choose what kind.
Blicks - November 30, 2008
Eleventh hour...
oblique - November 30, 2008
Twelfth night
Blicks - November 30, 2008
13th floor
grover - November 30, 2008
14th amendment
iglew - November 30, 2008
15 yard penalty for unsportsmanlike conduct
automatic first down.
5Aces - November 30, 2008
16 Days Campaign
devo - November 30, 2008
17th century
Blicks - November 30, 2008
18- she's legal
stranahanahan - November 30, 2008
19 Apostles of Bahá'u'lláh
devo - November 30, 2008
20/20
a.k.a. hindsight
oblique - December 1, 2008
21- you're legal
Blackjack!
GoA's - December 1, 2008
and that should be, 18 - She's legal!
devo - November 30, 2008
Catch - 22
Eastbayjim - December 1, 2008
23rd hour
Blicks - December 1, 2008
Jack Bauer.
oakinboston - December 1, 2008
Silver Anniversary
alox - December 1, 2008
Three cubed
Blicks - December 1, 2008
You skipped 26.
Clinton Portis?
Gallagher's Watermelons - December 1, 2008
28 Days (or Weeks) Later ...
devo - December 1, 2008
What are the chances of Rickie Weeks playing as #28?
1 in 99?
grover - December 1, 2008
probably better than that ...
since they don’t often give out the higher numbers … probably somewhere along the lines of 1in 30 or 40
devo - December 1, 2008
Biggest prime integer under 30.
Blicks - December 1, 2008
OT - I like how Colorado's scouts,
knowing their own home park and scouting the A’s said, “How do we get Greg Smith and Alan Embree to come pitch for us?”
Nico - November 30, 2008
That reminds me of the time we signed Esteban Loaiza...
“It was a darrrrrrrrrrk and stormy night…”
Gallagher's Watermelons - November 30, 2008
Interesting comment from John Perrotto of Baseball Prospectus
NL Rumors and Rumblings: The Dodgers have ruled out the idea of re-signing shortstop Rafael Furcal because of concerns about the back surgery he had this year, making it that much more likely that he will land with either the Giants or Athletics, though the Reds are a potential dark horse. …
Eastbayjim - November 30, 2008
That horse is dark all right!
Nico - November 30, 2008
Dark red?
Maybe it’s just a “red” herring.
PaulThomas - November 30, 2008
Or just a red scare
nevermoor - November 30, 2008
Baseball Prospectus is run by ZOMG COMMUNISTS!!!!!!
Blicks - December 1, 2008
Better than ZOMG COLUMNISTS
nevermoor - December 1, 2008
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