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Monday's Minor League Report

The A’s have at least 23 players participating in various winter leagues across the Western hemisphere with several of the performances looking to have an impact on the 40 man roster. 39 of those 40 spots are already filled, assuming Keith Foulke, Emil Brown and Frank Thomas don’t re-sign. After that, there are 12 players currently on the 40 man roster that are fighting to maintain their status versus at least 5 players already in the organization who need to be added to the 40 man roster in the next few days or the A’s risk losing them through minor league free agency or the Rule 5 draft.

 

Here’s a list of whose playing winter ball.

 

Star-divide

Arnold Leon

Jose Garcia

Brad Kilby

Anthony Recker

Pedro Figueroa

Frank Martinez

Jeff Baisley

Gregorio Petit

Jesus Silva

Raul Padron

Jesus Guzman

Javier Herrra

Rajai Davis

Andrew Bailey

Andrew Carignan

Jeff Gray

Jared Lansford

Adrian Cardenas

Josh Donaldson

Sean Doolittle

Corey Brown

Brett Hunter (Replacing Sam Demel, shut down due to a tired arm)

Chris Carter

Sam Demel

 

The highlighted names are the players currently on the 40 man roster. The italicized names are players not on the 40 man roster and will either be declared minor league free agents (Garcia, Guzman) or be exposed to the Rule 5 draft (Kilby, Recker) in the next few days.

 

Here’s the list of players currently on the 40 man roster (and not mentioned above) that I think need to look over their shoulder.

 

Chris Denorfia

Matt Murton

Eric Patterson

Richie Robnett

Jack Hannahan

Dan Meyer

Joe Dillon

 

My opinion of the current 40 man structure is worth a separate post, but I feel compelled to ask a question before moving on: Do the A’s really need to carry 11 outfielders on the 40 man roster?

 

Mexican Winter League

 

Paul Thomas man crush Arnold Leon hasn’t exactly dominated in the MWL but he’s only allowed runs in 1 of his 8 appearances and has pitched a lot over the past 6 months.

 

Dominican League

 

Jose Garcia’s numbers aren’t much to look at, but they are a sign he’s healthy for the first time since 2006. And what did he do in 2006? He pitched himself from High-A to the Florida Marlins in less than 6 months. Garcia turns 24 in January and he needs to be added to the 40 man roster or he’ll be declared a minor league free agent.

 

Brad Kilby had a rough start and then got hit in the head by a line drive, so he hasn’t pitched in a few days. The injury isn’t serious but it’ll probably be another week or so before he’s back on the mound. Kilby is another pitcher who needs to be added to the 40 man roster or he’ll be exposed to the Rule 5 draft. Look at his AAA numbers; someone is going to give him a shot to be their LOOGY next year. Why should the A’s give up a cheap arm that’s had success in the upper levels of the minor leagues?

 

Anthony Recker is a very strong guy. His physicality should serve him well as a bouncer in a few years.

 

Pedro Figueroa. Meh.

 

Frank Martinez is an organizational soldier that the A’s will plug in wherever they have an infield hole in their minor league farm system. He hasn’t done enough to make Oakland take him seriously as a prospect.

 

Venezuelan Baseball League

 

Jeff Baisley has struggled thus far in winter ball and has had problems staying healthy his last two minor league seasons. But he is healthy now and the more I look at the 40 man roster, the more I think there simply isn’t enough room for both Baisley and Hannahan. The A’s (read: Billy Beane) continues to believe that Eric Chavez is physically capable of manning the hot corner in 2009 and beyond. Hannahan has the glove to play 3B but his lefty bat proved woeful when exposed over the course of a full season. Baisley has shown some pop and a solid glove and his fondness for LH pitching makes him an ideal compliment for Chavez. Personally, I think Baisley can become another Olmedo Saenz.

 

Gregorio Petit is hitting 353/404/549 but his 5/14 BB/K rate in 51 at bats is at least a caution flag. He’s got the glove, range and arm to compete for the A’s starting SS job next ST but the bat remains a question mark.

 

Jesus Silva. Less than meh.

 

Raul Padron is thus far best known as the A’s minor league catcher who got handed a 50 game suspension for using a performance enhancing substance. Do you see anything that’ll change his claim to fame? Me neither.

 

Jesus Guzman is a rather polarizing figure for a guy the A’s picked up as a minor league free agent about a year ago. His AA numbers and infield versatility (2B, 3B, SS… well, not so much the last one) scream keeper and worthy of a spot on the 40 man roster. His AAA numbers and age (he turned 24 in June) give one pause. A 382/485/691 line with a 9/9 BB/K rate tilts the balance back toward keeper. The A’s are thin at 3B, especially if Eric Chavez’s shoulder looks more like hamburger than filet mignon after his most recent surgery. If Jeff Baisley is the guy who’s likely to make a competent big league back-up, then Guzman is the one with the tools to maybe be a starter. I am certain there isn’t enough room on Oakland’s 40 man roster for Guzman, Hannahan and Baisley. At least 1 of these 3 will be playing for another organization next year. If Guzman isn’t added to the 40 man roster he’ll become a minor league free agent for 2009.

 

Javier Herrera. Guess who still has no clue of the strike zone? 1 more minor league option left in 2009, is his athleticism enough to warrant a spot on the 40 man roster?

 

Rajai Davis is an interesting player. He really doesn’t have the bat to start, although he’s shown a little ability to maybe hit LHP. He can steal a base, play a decent bit of CF and seems willing to accept a bench role.

 

Arizona Fall League

 

Andrew Bailey has struck out 10 in 6.2 IP. 1 ER, 10 hits and no walks makes for a solid AFL stint. On a side note, for anyone who wonders why folks like myself are so willing to offer up Vincent Mazzaro in trade discussions… keep in mind that this time last year Bailey was regarded in the same way Mazzaro is now.

 

Andrew Carignan has been dominant… no, over-powering… hmm… over-poweringly dominant in his last 3 appearances. 3 IP, 1 hit, 1 walk, 8 strike-outs!

 

Jeff Gray hasn’t allowed a run in 7 IP thus far. It’s the type of performance he needed to stay on Oakland’s radar after a rough season in AAA.

 

Jared Lansford would prefer that I did not talk about his Oct. 25 outing when he gave up 4 ER without recording an out. And you all know how compassionate I am.

 

Adrian Cardenas. I know the scouts love him and he projects well but seriously… where’s the power?

 

Josh Donaldson. The short term move to 1B hasn’t done anything to boost his offensive production.

 

Sean Doolittle is a guy who’s going to draw a mixed opinion from the scouting community. He seems to be doing all right in the outfield and a .603 slugging percentage doesn’t bring frowns, but 16 strike outs in 73 at bats is something to keep an eye on. One thing is for certain, this isn’t the hitter the A’s drafted a year and a half ago.

 

Hawaii Winter Baseball

 

Corey Brown continues to display power potential, a dash of speed and serious contact issues.

 

Brett Hunter. Kicked ass in his debut. Ass kicked in the encore.

 

Chris Carter must be too busy trying to get lei’d.

 

Sam Demel. Tired arm.

 

Just a quick footnote, Henry Rodriguez and Carlos Gonzales plan on playing Winter Ball, they just haven’t signed with any team yet. All written stats are as of the night of Nov. 1.

2 recs  |  82 comments

Comments

thoughts

I think Donaldson’s move to 1B is not to improve his bat, but simply to limit the amount of time he stays behind the plate now that the regular season is over. No sense adding to the wear and tear playing Catcher in winterleagues.

I am in favor of trading Mazzaro. His value is at its highest that it could ever be at, and I think he could be used to acquire a bat.

I thought Herrera had no options left. Same with Meyer.

Is there any doubt that Robnett is gone in the next couple days? I think he and Herrera are going to be DFA’d soon.

Unless Barton turns things around

Doolittle will be playing 1st base opening day 2010.

Love Donaldson. I think he replaces Kurt. His power is potential is a good bit above Kurt’s.

I still see Bailey as a starter. He should be starting in AA with a AAA promotion at some point next year if theres no probs in AA.

Also gonna be interesting where they stick Inoa next year.

Kane County too high? Prob AZ Rookie ball.

he's gonna be 17 (if his age is actually true). I'd put him in rookie ball for sure to start.
Yeah, I don't let him above rookie ball.
His power numbers are a little better, but Suzuki has proven

unbelievably durable so far, clutch, with good defense and a very good ability to handle his pitchers.

Donaldson has a lot to prove before he can replace Kurt

"Donaldson has a lot to prove before he can replace Kurt"

Without a doubt. But I believe he will.

Couldn't agree with you more Nate

Zooks is a stud behind the dish and he strikes me as someone who will only improve each year. I’m interested to get a look at Donaldson in Stockton next season if possible.

Donaldson will be 23 next year

Gotta figure he’s heading to AA to see if his Stockton explosion was the real deal or not.

Speaking of real deal...

… I imagine this has already been addressed on this great site of ours, but was Zook’s high average last season a result of lots of luck or a sign of actual improvement? Just curious— I never expected .279 year out of ’im.

He hit considerably better ...

his line drive rate increased three percentage points his strikeout rate by more than five percentage points. If anything, based on those numbers, we should have expected his avg to increase more than it did. It’s not a lock to continue into the future but it has a godo chancce of doing so.

When I looked at the batted ball rates of the A's hitters last season, I noted

that Suzuki would have to improve his performance to create the same outcome as last season. As far as I can tell, that’s exactly what happened— he hit better but was less lucky, thus appearing to regress slightly.

The good news is, we can expect him to move forward a bit next year; I’d project him at around a .740 OPS, which is pretty solid for a catcher.

Thanks, good to know
I'm not criticizing Donaldson

But Suzuki is already one of the 10 best catchers in baseball (probably closer to 6-7). I think it’s unfair to project him to be better than that, just because it’s a lot to ask for a guy who hasn’t even played AA ball yet.

Jack Hannahan

Is there any reason for Jack to be on the 40 man roster?
Last season started with positive feelings for Jack but as his season continued I began to ask myself, “WHY THE HELL $(^%# IS HANNAHAN PLAYING!?!?!?!?!!”
Yes, he made me yell at myself in my head.
So, why is he on the 40 man roster?

You are correct

Hannahan should be playing in the minors for another franchise. Dan Meyer should not be on 40 man roster. He is taking up valuable space in my opinion.

Looks like the Marlins just claimed Dan Meyer off of waivers so we don't have to worry about his

taking up a spot on the 40 man roster.

I'm really wondering what the "$(^%#" word in this sentence is

Is this the new “fuck the heck”?

ive been thinking about this all day.

my best guess is that athleticsfanandrunner suffers from tourette’s?

Looks like a temper tantrum in the middle of a sentence.
Inoa

He has not even played a season in the Dominican Summer League yet. He needs that opportunity before being moved up to the Arizona Rookie League.

He's coming to the states next year

and rightly so. Rookie leagues are not about performance, they’re about skill development. The A’s will want to work on his game at Team Central.

Agreed

Plus it’s a great place for him to become more acclimated to both the A’s and the US

Denorfia

I think he should stay on the roster. he’s always been able to hit, just not to stay healthy. and he’s right-handed. and he projects a lot higher than Davis or CarGon.

He projects

“a lot higher” than Cargon??? Could you please explain?

i assume he means for next year only.

I hope so.

There are only a handful of guys who project higher than CarGon, and let me tell you, a guy we got for Marcus McBeth ain’t one of them.

yes, that's what I meant

ZiPS projections aren’t close between them.

High as in stoned?
I'm not sure he even projects higher than Davis

People here really, really underrate just how awesome Davis is defensively.

i dont think they give up on denorfia either

do either have remaining options?

Davis doesn't.
I think one of those guys gets DFAd at the end of spring training

But, for now, guys like Murton and Herrera are is much more danger of losing their 40-man spot.

It's possible Denorfia has an option left

We know he used one in 2006 and one in 2008, but I’m not sure if he used one in 2005 or not.

Davis is definitely out of options.

I just fear his bat, and not in the good way
i wouldnt trade mazzaro

he might have the most value outside of any pitching prospect among cahill/anderson. but by end of 09 or so, i wouldnt expect eveland part of the A’s long term plans. with many teams needing lefties he might be wanted. plus add in an expendable reliever and you i think you can get some decent value.

if they choose, they could always return lansford/bailey back to the rotation for more sp depth…that wouldnt surprise me

is carter injured or they just decided to sit him after playing horrible in the hwb?

I would rather see Smith traded than Eveland.

I think Eveland will be the better starter over Smith in the long run.

And yeah, they have value.

Just look at the contracts guys like Jon Garland get.

Eveland has great stuff, Smith doesn't.

It’s just a matter of whether he can put it together and pitch with a head like Smith’s. You can teach people to pitch smart, you can’t teach stuff. Eveland showed flashes last year.

And, Smith doesn't control his stuff well enough to account for a deficiency in "stuff"
I wouldn't call Eveland's stuff "great"...more like average and Smith below average.

I’d use K-rate as a proxy for “stuff”, while taking into account GB rate and IF/F rate maybe.

Carter hasn't been horrible

There are huge sample size issues with these winter leagues. Carter’s regular season started off much worse than his HWB trip did.

Batting average fluctuates, but his power is OK (not great, but Hawaii is tough to hit for power in) and his isoOBP is outstanding.

What makes Hawaii a tough power place?

I’m not debating the fact, just curious why. I don’t really know much about Hawaii’s elevation or any of the other factors that would play a role here.

Damp, humid air would be my guess

More air resistance = balls don’t fly as far.

Gonzalez and rodriguez

They are in the roster already, Gonzalez is supposed to be playing tomorrow. Rodriguez not sure yet if he’ll be in the bullpen or starting.

Javier Herra

  How many years have I heard this guy is the next great prospect. Time to take him off the 40 man. I also don’t see Matt Murton on the 40 man too. That is 2 off. If they take off Meyer they should trade him first. He has some value so I rather get a low A ball prospect or a player to be named later and cash for him.

What exactly is Meyer's value?

Are we talking in rubles, here? The dude’s got a 7+ career ERA.

wasn’t dan meyer like #2 or 3 in FIP in AAA last year, about the same as giogon?

(i’m also sick of him)

Meyer just got claimed off waivers by the Marlins

I linked to the Miami Herald story in today’s DLD

I loved the post, but grover you are downright wrong....

Rajai Davis is a hitting MACHINE! Did you miss that grand slam he hit? Rajai for president! Rajai for 3b! Rajai for 4th OF!…lol I jest of course. Great post, always good to learn about what options Billy has for the team.

the more i think about it

the more i think we need more hype surrounding Rajai Davis. im thinking a Save Rajai Davis Fanclub, informational pamphlets, promotional t-shirts… the works. for me, Rajai Davis is the new Kraut of Oakland Coliseum.

BP Dbacks top 11

notice 2 A’s unsigned 07 picks schlereth/cowgill make the cut, although in a bad system

Five-Star Prospects
1. Jarrod Parker, RHP
Four-Star Prospects
2. Daniel Schlereth, LHP
Three-Star Prospects
3. Gerardo Parra, OF
4. Wade Miley, RHP
5. Cesar Valdez, RHP
6. Kevin Eichhorn, RHP
7. Evan Frey, OF
Two-Star Prospects
8. Tony Barnette, RHP
9. Collin Cowgill, OF
10. Brian Shaw, RHP
11. Barry Enright, RHP

They really took a hatchet to this group with the Haren trade...
imagine if they hadn't? would they even have sniffed the playoffs last year?
Probably.

The NL West is that bad.

I'm not saying it was a bad trade... Haren is awesome

It’s just a bit disappointing from their end that they did not get a breakout performance by anyone in the system this year.

a hatchet *and* a scalpel!
The DBack system will look pretty after all those draft picks they're getting.
Unless they pick Jeremy Brown and Stephen Obenchain.
They're re-entering the draft?

I suppose someone will want a catcher that’s hit .300 in the majors. ;-)

They may change their names, but dont' be fooled!
The more relevant measure for a team like Arizona

is my favorite part of Goldstein’s rankings, the “under 25 rankings.” That list is:

1. Justin Upton, OF
2. Max Scherzer, RHP
3. Chris B. Young, OF
4. Jarrod Parker, RHP
5. Daniel Schlereth, LHP
6. Mark Reynolds, 3B
7. Miguel Montero, C
8. Gerardo Parra, OF
9. Yusmeiro Petit, RHP
10. Wade Miley, RHP

Arizona’s farm system is definitely down, but they still have a very talented young team. They were one of the few teams in baseball that could have made the Haren trade without gutting their young talent, and probably the only one with the ability and willingness to do so. Ultimately, it worked out pretty well for both teams. Deciding to extend Byrnes while dumping Quentin . . . ouch.

Good call here

The DBacks system is down, but they do have a lot of good young players in the majors. Of course, I wouldn’t consider Chris Young good. Chris Young sucks, although he did walk more this year so he might be good eventually.

As for Byrnes: It was a bad deal, but there’s only 2 years left on it. It won’t hamstring them for very long, and Byrnes, if healthy, isn’t useless. He’s just not worth that money.

Chris Young is a cautionary tale

for those people who make the mistake of assuming that a strikeout is just another out for a hitting prospect. Statistical projection systems (PECOTA particularly) and stat guys loved Young as a prospect, and scouts liked Young too. Unfortunately, the high strikeouts in the minors were a precursor to huge contact issues in the majors, and Young may be one of those prospects that had a weakness that was not exploited in the minors but will always be exploited in the minors.

Byrnes’ deal won’t hamstring the D-Backs for too long, but the D-Backs would have made the playoffs this year if they had punted on Byrnes and kept Quentin. That’s the true detriment of the Byrnes extension, the decision on Quentin that it forced.

He's only two years into his MLB career ...

and is league average CFer … he’s not a very good cautionary tale …

Don’t do drugs, you’ll never be anything …
I can be mayor!

Yusmeiro is still under 25?

i feel like i’ve been hearing about him forever.

Bailey v Mazzaro is really a silly comparison.

Bailey was coming off an age 23 season split between low A and high A, showed serious control problems, and had a history of arm injury (major arm surgery in college IIRC). I think he made the back half of BA’s Cal league top 20.

Mazzaro is coming off an age 21 season split between AA and AAA, ahs had no arm issues, and ranked as BA’s 4th ranked prospect and top ranked pitcher in the Texas League. He’s not without his flaws, but the comparison has absolutely not basis in fact.

Newsflash: Meyer claimed on waivers by Marlins

That’s another open 40-man roster spot! Let the battles continue!

I really want the A's to add Guzman and Garcia to the 40 man

I think both could eventually make and stick on the team. Herrera is really intriguing with all the tools he has, but he only has one option left and the team already has a ton of OFers. Eventually, I’d leave him on the roster for one more year (at the expense of Denorfia, Robnett, or Hannahan) and see if he can hit AAA. If it comes down to Jav or Guzman/Garcia, I hope Herrera passes through waivers.

Wouldn't exposing him to the Rule 5 draft now be less risky than DFAing him in spring 2010?

Can he really stay on a 40-man roster all of 2009?

I really want to keep Garcia
+1

on both guzman and garcia, i’d rather have those two than herrera or robnett.

thanks

this report is a great resource. i had been following the AFL group but it’s nice to keep tabs on the rest of the org.

Hannahan & Davis put the RP in VORP

If you have players that actually have long term potential to be a starter at the major league level, you don’t lose them to keep guys like Hannahan and Davis.

There is only one reason to keep Davis

And that is to use him as your 5th Outfielder. Davis’s value is purely as a Pinch Runner, Defensive Replacement for CF. And that can be valuable on a team if you are playing Jack Cust in the outfield.

If you are not, however, he doesn’t really have a place.

Not true

Davis’s defense rates so well that he’d be, at worst, a league average player as a major league starting CF. In the NL, he’d probably be a bit above average.

The guy is more than a 5th outfielder.

you must have read the informational pamphlet

i was distributing earlier today.
save rajai davis!

Hey!

I think the A’s have a Jack Cust type on the roster!

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