Athletics Nation

that's true

I love Ellis, but I still like Sweeney. I haven’t heard many people say anything bad about him… and all the players seemed to like him a lot.

#14fan - November 2, 2008 reply

Yeah but Ellis isn't the nicest player in baseball.

Sweeney is a great influence on anybody he’s around

NateHST - November 2, 2008 reply

he's close, though.

but I agree. Sweeney was/is a great influence.

#14fan - November 2, 2008 reply

I ask myself if Sweeney's health

deteriorated after the Thomas acquisition, it was to make room for Big Frank that moved Sweeney to 1b.
I would be interested in getting him back as a RH pinch hitter, DH and backup 1b.

connie mack - November 3, 2008 reply

This is a great question to raise, Taj

How valuable was Embree, as he gave up far too many runs but provided a leadership that the young pitchers cited as real and significant?

I am just reminded of the saying “Do as I say, not as I do” when I think of Embree and Foulke!

Veteran who can still hit and is affordable

“Cowboy Up” Kevin Millar.

Could take Barton under his wing and be a veteran leader.

He was signed for under 3 million had a good year so over paying for a 1yr contract I am sure he could be had for 5 million.

I agree a Foulke or someone like that for the pen is also needed.

Bud Light - November 2, 2008 reply

Completely Disagree

Veteran-ness as a quality that one should trade for or seek to acquire? Count me out. If you want to see how well that works hire Bill Bavasi as a consultant and look how well that has worked for the Seattle Mariners? The list of youngsters caste off in favor of keeping worthless veterans is the main reason why the Mariners suck. I will take talent first any day, of any week, at any time.

The hacks in Seattle constantly talked about the special quality that veterans bring, and Bavasi spent millions acquiring overpaid veterans that were supposed to bring special quality to the clubhouse. Nonsense. The game is not won in the clubhouse. Veterans are fine if they have talent, and are affordable, but the inherent value of veterans is as overrated as the power of “bulletin board” material in a locker room.

hokecole - November 2, 2008 reply

Or Ed Wade, or Dave Drombowski, or Chuck LaMar,

So many bad GM examples on the trade youth for vets.

But, I half disagree. The same reason that teams often get rid of their “clubhouse cancer” players. Elijah Dukes OPSed almost .900 this year in RF for the Nats, and would without a doubt have been an improvement in RF over what the Rays had this year, but he was traded due to clubhouse/personal issues.

Although “clubhouse cancer” is overblown by the media, there is a positive to be gained from moving the players who cause friction among teammates.

The converse is true. If a player is playing a notable positive influence on the team, even if he isn’t performing so well, if he can be brought back at a reasonable price for his performance level, he should. This “reasonable price” includes whether he is blocking someone younger, and monetary costs.

I agree with this 99.5%

The young players have to realize for themselves that they belong. Having Jason Giambi on the team isn’t going to improve Daric Barton’s hitting, any more than having Embree on the team made Dallas Braden pitch well (hint: he didn’t). Embree was cited as a positive influence because of his work ethic and leadership skills, not his tenure.

WaddellCanseco - November 2, 2008 reply

I agree with Hokecole

Veteran-ness is overrated. Its not like these guys don’t have decades of experience already playing baseball, and years of pro baseball. Talent wins, that’s the fact of it. If a player has talent, he will succeed. If he has talent AND experience, he will do better. Its when that talent fades with age and all that is left is experience when they start failing. Only a few players in the history of the game are able to keep going based on pure experience (Maddux and Moyer immediately come to mind), while others are sometimes able to use their experience to help mitigate their loss of talent gradually (Randy Johnson), and then there are some who never seem to lose their talent (Clemens, Bonds?).

If I have a young talented player and an aged grizzled veteran, even if they put up the same numbers, I am going to go with the young guy.

Zonis - November 2, 2008 reply

Yes on Measure Bonds

No on Measure Nanny Poker…………

mrod - November 2, 2008 reply

3MM is steep for Embree

They could always sign him for less.

The young pitching got whatever they were going to get out of Embree

And I’m glad he is off to his next gig. But I will always wonder what he imparted to the young pitchers, particularly fellow lefty Dallas Braden, who came back to Sacramento last season after his stint with the A’s bullpen standing taller, acting more confident, and with what seemed like some newly-nasty tweaks to his pitches.

catfan - November 2, 2008 reply

This is more backing as to why Huston Street should be traded.

Going to the media and complaining when he lost his “closer” role (which is bullshit anyways) is downright low and is a great way to spread negativity in the clubhouse.

Especially when he “lost it” because he was blowing a ton of saves (although not as many as K-Rod will blow next year) and Ziegler and Devine were both MUCH better alternatives.

This post is ridiculous

Street’s “complaints” were almost unbelievably meek and invariably hedged around with a ton of qualifiers about how he would continue to do his best for the team.

As for the second paragraph, there’s really no argument for either of those guys being a better pitcher than Huston Street. Street has four seasons worth of pitching with an ERA under 3.00 and a strikeout per inning. Devine and Ziegler, while I like them, are not even close to that kind of track record.

I didn't say Ziegler and Devine are better alternatives permanently.

I said they were better alternatives at the time. When Street’s out there slumping, you put him in a lower pressure role and put in one of the two, who were pitching well, and see what’s going on. And, the team is rebuilding anyways, and its nice to see what these two can do.

And yeah, his complaints were meek. But still, saying that you believe that you are able to do the best for the team out of the “closer’s role” after you’re demoted from the role, isn’t exactly being a “leader”. Talk to the manager, not the press.

Earn the role back if you want it. I still like Street, although I think he should be traded.

I think he felt he HAD earned it back by giving up just 3 runs in his last 20-odd innings of the season.

while striking out 20.

Since he came back from the injury he has had a problem in his head.

Some may have been getting his strength back as his FB was a lot slower in 2008 but I think he was playing a mind came with himself and being put into the setup role helped take the pressure off of him and allow him to regain his control. He also seemed to gain some of the power back in his FB later.

Eastbayjim - November 2, 2008 reply

His FB was 0.4 MPH slower this year

Not exactly dropping to Moyer proportions, I’d say.

It did appear to fluctuate during the season, however, with some impact on his performance. Still, isn’t that an argument for giving him the job back when it was back at “healthy” levels?

I agree

But like I said, the reason he was pulled down was because he wasn’t performing up to what a closer should be. Afterward he seemed to regain much of what was missing.
I really think the biggest problem he has was in his head and that may be a problem in the future if they feels that the A’s aren’t treating him right.
I do agree that he has the talent and at times last year he showed it but generally those were times when he wasn’t the closer so the pressure was off of him.
H

Eastbayjim - November 2, 2008 reply

I think there are a lot of explanations more plausible than Street suddenly suffering a nervous breakdown about closing

particularly given that he wanted to continue doing it.

I’m 99% certain that the performance fluctuations we saw last year were a combination of random variation and whether his groin was hurting or not.

I don't think Street suffered a nervous breakdown about closing,

but I do think he started to go to his slider a lot more during periods where his fastball velocity – or maybe just its overall “giddyup” – were not as good. There were times, during his darkest stretches, where he often threw 4-5 sliders in a row, and they were outings where the radar gun readings on his fastball were more 89ish than 92ish.

I almost replied to this earlier....

The A’s never did give a plausible reason for his pitching woes. It seemed to me that the ball didn’t have the same bite over the plate when he was struggling. That fact coupled with the reduced velocity resulted in a lot of balls being put over the fences.

I think Street finally admitted

he had been “working through some groin issues the last few weeks” – which seemed like an admission that there were in fact physical reasons his stuff was not as sharp.

So can we DFA Street's Groin and keep the parts that work?

Eastbayjim - November 2, 2008 reply

I think it would get picked up

Probably by Jennifer.

I wonder if the AN female contingent

would claim those parts off waivers?

I seem to recall that he was hinting

at what was “wrong”. But there was never any official diagnosis as far as I can remember. Curious.

What, the A's being closemouthed about injuries?

There are many words which can be used to describe that, but “curious” isn’t the one I’d pick, personally.

True, true.

I just happen to find the A’s whole medical apparatus curious.

I feel that he earned it back as well

However stating stuff like that to the media isn’t really mature. That should be taken up with the manager, not the media. And, didn’t he also say stuff as soon as he was told by Geren that Ziggy would be closing though? But then, it really isn’t a big deal. It just peeved me a bit.

Of course, I also believe that the closer system is absolutely archaic.

I thought Street was very restrained with the media

You would hope he cared and wanted the closer’s role enough to say so – I thought he handled himself with grace throughout, especially coming on Extra Innings right after a particularly devastating blown save.

Oh yeah. He does have class and grace.

He was generally restrained, although a few things did peeve me.

One might have to consider

that when you and I are demoted at work, rarely do tens of thousands of people talk and write about it.

Very true, very true.

Embree and Street

I’m not sorry to see Embree go; he had a good year in ‘07 and then an awful year last year. Every time he came into a game I knew he’d give up at least one run and he always proved me right. We have much better options from the left side (Blevins, Outman, Braden) and I also don’t buy into the experience aspect. If you need to turn to a veteran pitcher look no further than Duke. He’s been a late-inning reliever and a starter so he can help everyone on the staff if need be. But really all it comes down to is can you get the job done when it counts? If you can’t or you’re too mentally fragile then you’re probably not going to be counted on at all anyway.

As for Street, I’m getting tired of his public whining. Every quote I see from him seems to be taking little jabs at the front office. I like him a lot as a player and I think we should hang on to him because you can’t have enough good, battle tested bullpen arms. However, someones got to step in and tell him shut his trap because you shouldn’t hear so much negative talk from a supposed team leader. Instead of saying that the loss of Embree is huge he should be saying that everyone will miss him but that they’re also all ready to step up and fill his spot.

Helloooo 1st - November 2, 2008 reply

Agreed on Duke.

He has the relief track record, and he’s had some time as a starter.

I don't see Outman or Braden as better options than Embree.

WaddellCanseco - November 2, 2008 reply

Really? How so?

Helloooo 1st - November 2, 2008 reply

They both could/will be in the starting rotation and/or traded?

Because neither is very good. Embree has a good enough fastball to have a chance.

Yeah, he's got a negative 1.2 MPH velocity advantage over Outman!

PaulThomas - November 3, 2008 reply

I suppose I should have looked that up first, but Embree does have better control of

said fastball. ZiPS has Embree at a 4.11 ERA and Outman 4.99. See this time I looked it up.

Where is this public whining that people are talking about?

All I see is a quote praising a friend and teammate—one that I would hope he would make. I don’t see a single criticism of the front office.

JediLeroy - November 5, 2008 reply

I don't have a problem with having a veteran or two for a stabilizing influence

but I do have a problem with going around hunting for them. Players should be signed because they are going to help the team win in some capacity. Giambi will probably do that; Kevin Millar (eg) probably will NOT do that.

I actually think someone like Dillon, or for that matter Hannahan, who has had the experience of having toiled in obscurity for many years, probably has as much of a beneficial influence as any washed up ex-star.

i would think your ultimate "clubhouse leader"

would be someone that grew up within your organization and has gained the respect of teammates, coaches and fans over the years. To that end, maybe letting the kids sort it out amongst themselves is the best route to follow.

easyrichboy - November 2, 2008 reply

someone that grew up within your organization and has gained the respect of teammates, coaches and fans over the years and is Mexican enough

Corrected.

ummm.... true.

easyrichboy - November 2, 2008 reply

Hey! PT!

You’re offending me!!!!!!

How dare you insinuate that I am not Mexican enough!!!!!!

mrod - November 2, 2008 reply

I think you're too Mexican, so it all evens out

Oh! So you did see my latest full length feature film.....

“Enter The Mexican”………….?

mrod - November 9, 2008 reply

Trade for Maddux!...except he'd be supernumerary...

DyeLongJustice - November 2, 2008 reply

We go to 11!

WaddellCanseco - November 2, 2008 reply

Is your favorite aging player a joke on the mound?

Is your formerly great catcher hitting like Woody Allen with pneumonia?

Well, have no fear! The intangibles are here!

I don’t want to be too dismissive, because like most debates, it’s rare that one side is completely right and the other completely wrong. It’s usually somewhere closer to the middle. So I’ll say that veteran leadership probably does have some degree of impact on younger players— after all, Huston said so. Still, I think it’s way, way, way overblown. Not unlike the “handling the pitching staff” argument for keeping catchers around way after they’ve tanked at the plate, or letting a subpar player go out there every day because “he’s a gamer.”

It all comes down to performance. If you can’t get anybody out, I don’t care if you lead like General George S. Patton, the team don’t need ya.

Joey C. - November 2, 2008 reply

George S. Patton would probably just slap Eric Chavez silly anyway.

{cough}

monkeyball - November 3, 2008 reply

Believe it or not, I had not seen that comment when I posted mine

PaulThomas - November 3, 2008 reply

Ignorantia simianis neminem excusat

monkeyball - November 3, 2008 reply

And would immediately be served with papers

from the Mexican government…………

oh, wait!……..they’re not Mexican enought either!]
Doh~

mrod - November 2, 2008 reply

Adam Dunn

Has anyone noticed that Adam Dunn, who is a “veteran presence” who can hit, is left off some of the mainstream media sports lists of top free agents, or at least appears rather far down the list for someone who has hit 40 home runs in a season as many times as he has? Either Sports Illustrated or the NY Times listed Derek Lowe before Dunn. The idea that Lowe would have more positive impact on a team’s W-L record than Dunn seems kind of far-fetched. It may be wishful thinking but perhaps group-think on Dunn’s value will make his price reasonable for the A’s, which would help at least partly solve their power issues for a number of years.

SA - November 2, 2008 reply

I would take Raul Ibanez before Adam Dunn

OBP .358 but .327 with RISP

Dunn is .386 but 80 or more points lower with RISP and way less RBI

I think Beane would go for him before Dunn.

Just my opinion but I don’t want to see Cust and Dunn hitting back to back. It’s just one opinion and I am sure there are many that disagree. I want someone to make contact with men on base. Not walk their way on base and get stranded by a strikeout.

More aggression is needed by the A’s in these situations.

Trainman - November 2, 2008 reply

Brace for the replies, T-man

This opinion will anger the gods, or at least many fans who post on AN.

Cust is Dunn Lite, except cheaper and a better bang for the buck.

I don’t think Cust and Dunn should be in the same lineup. Way too unbalanced. And, if its one or the other, salary and other factors taken into consideration, I take Cust. When you look at his 2007 BABIP (really high) and his 2008 BABIP (low), you’d expect a line for 2009 somewhere in the middle. Which is solid.

I would definitely take Ibanez over Dunn for the A’s.

Although, I want to see neither Ibanez nor Cust in the field.

But then, my love of Cust is probably irrational.

How about an outfield of Cust, Ibanez, and Burrell?

CF would be interesting.

As long as we have an infield of Prince Fielder, Ryan Howard (playing 3rd), Ellis at 2nd (gotta have defense somewhere), and Furcal at SS.

I know it's a small sample, but I think lately

Furcal is on a pace to commit 486 errors/season.

When you take salary into account Cust >>> Dunn and its not particularly close

Cust will make 1/6 (probably even less) of Dunn’s salary.

Actually, there seems to be a bit of a Dunn backlash building

Some people think he might not get more than about 4/60.

In which case, I say, let it be Oakland’s 4/60!

Still, two DHs who strike out way too much.

Dunn is a great player; I just don’t think he fits the A’s well. Although, it could work.

The A’s were already 4th in MLB in strikeouts without Dunn, they’d dominate the K leaderboards . Flat out dominate.

I’m not into the idea of trading Cust, as he is way undervalued.

Shrug

The Marlins had a ton of strikeouts, yet they also scored a lot of runs.

Also, I’m fairly certain that a strikeout is better than an out in play if one of those two is up and the other is on base, because damned nearly any ground ball is going to be a double play.

Somewhat agreed.

Although I could see it working out, and Dunn would be a positive influence on the A’s club, I don’t want the A’s to be relying too much on the HR ball, and when you look at clubs like the White Sox who rely on the HR ball, they’re absolutely spent when the HR isn’t hit (I think the Sox are like 9-30 or something when no HR is hit).

If the A’s can get him for 4/60, I’d say go for it. Not much more than that IMO.

Just don’t trade Cust. He is grossly undervalued in the market. But Beane knows that. Yes, I irrationally love Cust.

And of course the K is better than the GIDP.

Of course, if they added Dunn they'd jump from 125 hrs to 165 as a team

Going from “crap” to “middle of the pack” in the AL, power wise.

mikev - November 2, 2008 reply

Unless they want to move Ibanez to 1st on the A's, he's got nowhere to play

He’s a huge liability in the OF

MOAR LAWN DART

credits to LL on that one, btw.

Can't ... stop ... LMAO

doctorK - November 2, 2008 reply

Go to LL, now.

Raul Ibanez takes pride in his defense.

GO THERE

All of those are awesome, but nothing beat the LAWN DART

doctorK - November 2, 2008 reply

Career OPS: .900

Career OPS with RISP: .890

Surprisingly, it turns out that when you don’t randomly cherrypick unfavorable seasons to score cheap shots at a player, you end up doing better analysis!

Why would you want Raul Ibanez over Dunn?

Career OPS:
Dunn: .900
Ibanez: .818

2008 OPS
Dunn: .898
Ibanez: .837

Career OBP
Dunn: .381
Ibanez: .358

Career RC/27
Dunn: 7.36
Ibanez: 5.86

Career Isolated Power
Dunn: .272
Ibanez: .186

Win Probability Added 2006-2008 (from FanGraphs, WPA/LI):
Dunn: 8.25 wins
Ibanez: 6.05 wins

By any objective measure (using recent stats or career numbers), Dunn is the better player by a considerable amount. Ibanez is also a terrible defender and below-average baserunner, so it’s not as if he makes up some of the difference there. He wouldn’t kill you if he played first, but you would have to bump Barton out of the lineup to do that. I realize that Barton was all sorts of awful last year, but his development is among the principal goals of the rebuilding plan.

The only real advantage Ibanez has is monetary, since he is likely to cost considerably less than Dunn would. On a performance basis, however, the contest just isn’t close.

Two Custs are better than one!

Now to get Ryan Howard involved somehow….

Ziggy and Ryan Howard were friends in college, so that might have some leverage on Howard.

But that silly CBA and its pre-FA years keep getting in the way

Wait till he becomes FA

Two more years.

Depends on the team

Lowe has posted FIPs of 3.68, 3.97, and 3.26 the past 3 years with an incredible . He’s a very good pitcher and I think you’re selling him a bit short, though the media is certinaly doing the same for Dunn if he’s not appearing. His HR/FB rate was a bit out of line this year, but other than that I think his numbers look fine.

In fact, thinking about this more (like 10 seconds worth)

Considering the A’s current OF shape and Offense + Defense and the rotation I’m not convinced Lowe wouldn’t help the A’s win more than Dunn would (for next year).

Lowe is about what I hope/expect Cahill to turn out to be:

One of the league’s best sinkerballers who isn’t Brandon Webb.

I salivate at the thought of Cahill becoming Lowe.

Even though I don’t like Lowe for what happened in 2003, he’s still a stud pitcher.

Same. I think Webb is an unrealistic hope,

but since Lowe is better than a lot of fans realize, a Cahill-Lowe comp, while realistic, is also pretty awesome.

Lowe is understandable as being above Dunn, although I don't like him, but a few others.

4. K-Fraud
8. Orlando Cabrera and his .705 OPS.
9. Oliver Perez
10. Dunn.

Per Reiter on SI.

Heyman on SI also has K-Rod, Fuentes, Dempster, Orlando Cabrera, and Pat the Bat over Dunn

I read "Dempster" as "Dumpster"

Given what I think of his true ability, perhaps that was a freudian slip.

Bwahahaha.

Whoever signs him is going to be in for a fun “ride”.

Assuming Demp stays a Cubbie, Sweet Lou could have his hands full with the “bad pitching” bonanza.

Add in Marquis, and Rich’s injuries, and it could be entertaining up in Wrigley.

Dempster is kind of this year's Suppan

Only with a far weirder windup.

He looks like he's trying to unscrew the top of the ball with his glove

Perfect Analogy

Someone’s gonna get burned so bad with the Dempster contract. If Gillick wasn’t retiring, you would have to imagine he would be the front-runner. Him and Sabes, that is.

Or Ed Wade, or Jon Daniels.

Gillick and Wade were the last two Phillies GMs, no?

Yes.

They just won the World Series, no?

They did.

Ed Wade has done some bleh things with the Astros though.

I wasn’t the person who said Gillick. I think he’s a really good GM.

Derek Lowe is actually really good...

Shit, it wouldn’t be the worst idea ever for the A’s to sign HIM. Although I think the money can be better spent.

Second that

Although the money WOULD be better spent in other areas, Lowe is one of the best FA options available this offseason. Given the salary he’s likely to get, he might be the best.

Lowe

I’ll retreat on Lowe and concede I probably should have used K-Rod as an example of a free agent ranked higher than Dunn. Lowe actually had a better year than I thought and has put up much better numbers than his Red Sox days. But I still find it surprising that one of the top home run hitters in baseball does not get more positive press. I guess if he played in New York that wouldn’t be the case

SA - November 3, 2008 reply

Ahhhhh!!! Flip-flopper!!!

Wishy-washy!!!! Makes mistakes!!!! Don’t vote for SA for anything!!!!!

Paid for by Americans Against SA

Nico - November 3, 2008 reply

SA has Politician Syndrome.

Okay...

I deserved that….you got me…But I still think for the A’s that Dunn, who is younger than Lowe, would be more valuable to the team, since the A’s had no power threat last year other than Cust. Hey, I never said I was change we can believe in. I’m just a guy posting on a blog…

SA - November 7, 2008 reply

Rays Analogy

The problem I see with the Rays bullpen analogy is that regardless of the murky effect Percival might have had on the squad, they were better for the following reasons:

1) Despite only throwing one pitch, Grant Balfour cut his homers in half and his walk rate by 25%.
2) J.P. Howell cut his homers nearly in half and got pretty lucky (2.22 ERA, 3.39 FIP).
3) Dan Wheeler threw B.P. all year but put up an ERA one run lower than his FIP.
4) Their defense was awesome. Moving Upton out of the infield, replacing Brendan Harris with Jason Bartlett and calling up Evan Longoria will do that.

When you combine crazy, 2005 Chicago White Sox-level bullpen performances (Cliff Politte? Neal Cotts? Dustin Hermanson?) with one of the best defenses in baseball, a lot of good stuff is going to happen regardless of the effect that Percival had.

I don’t mean to completely discount the effect of a veteran presence in the bullpen/clubhouse. I do, however, think it tends to be vastly overstated.

I do completely discount the effect of Percival's veteran presence when he stopped pitching.

...and started throwing BP?

Yes, that had no positive impact on the younger players, other than maybe getting Price

onto the postseason roster

"At this point in the organization's rebuilding process, the A's are certainly not looking to add huge, long-term pieces for tens of million of dollars."

Why the heck not? If you’re not contending in 2009, why not sign someone for 5-6 years so they’ll be there when you are contending in 2010 and beyond? The guy you don’t acquire is someone who’s most valuable in 2009. This is Reason Number 2 why I’d rather have Dunn than Giambi.

Exactwy.

Nico - November 3, 2008 reply

Agreed.

And, when you’re not giving up your first round draft pick to do it, since when your team’s doing well, the pick isn’t protected.

I’m way too flip-floppy on this issue.