Athletics Nation

HB, bg!

Poppy - November 10, 2008 reply

Happy Birthday!

Did you ask for a right-handed stick to fill out the A’s lineup when you blew out your candles?

Indeed!

Happy Friggin Birthday Batgirl!

mrod - November 10, 2008 reply

Happy Birthday to you!

Gah... I don't like this at all at first blush

Buck Turgidson - November 10, 2008 reply

Seems like a target of opportunity for BB

To me Street and Smith are totally expendable. Cargon is worth it for player like Holliday.

I absolutely love it.

Smith is the definition of expendable. Unless he learns how to control his fringe stuff, he’s looking at 5 ERAs for a long time. Him in Coors could get ugly.

Street’s nice, but I think Devine is better.

Cargon is the wild card of course, he could be absolutely nothing or could turn into .320/.370/.540 or something crazy. I think he’s going to be one extreme or the other.

Emmett89 - November 10, 2008 reply

Well, time to refer back to my rosterbate post the other day...

I had the A’s picking up Holliday, Swisher, Furcal, And Giambi.

I really really don’t like this signing if we don’t add Giambi +

However, I think we will be adding Giambi, at least, very soon. Our lineup is going to be siiiiiiick!!! We have been waiting around for a good lineup for like 5 years now.

Also, props to Beane for giving up 3 over-rated players and holding onto Duke, whom the Rockies were reportedly interested in. This definitely helps us in ’09.

Sigh

I’ll say it again. Giambi is an older, more expense, worse hitting Jack Cust that we’d have to allow play 1B.

No thank you. Much better to sign Furcal, Blake, or anyone besides Giambi (unless Giambi does a $1M incentives-deal)

Anyone decent will be more expensive than Cust, and most won't hit as well.

Most importantly, we’re talking about a huge upgrade from Barton.

Furcal/Giambi/Holliday = playoffs

I'm not so convinced

Not many 38-40 year olds still hit >30 HR. The cliff is coming for Giambi, the only question is whether he’s already fallen off of it.

He seemed effective last season. I think he'll be okay if he's healthy enough for ~130 games.

Really?...

After Giambi all we need is John Jaha and we have the good ‘ol Homerin’ A’s.

They forgot that whole mantra about defense tho…

gdub171 - November 10, 2008 reply

People who think Cust is an irrefutably better offensive player than Giambi...

= Lay off the Kool-Aid Bro.

Who said "irrefutably". Just most probably.

How about this:

By any rational system of measurement, Cust has been an irrefutably better hitter than Giambi for the last two years.

Strickouts1!!111!!!! are rational

Yicks! You're all a bunch of crazy fukes

Go back to Phrenology school

Snap!

Blake is useless

Average bat, waaaaay below average glove. The A’s could do a whole lot better than him, unless they want a place-holder for a year or so.

+1

i don’t understand all the casey blake love around here. it’s not like he’s 28

Yes but neither are we anymore

fair enough

A whole lot better? Whom?

The point in getting a guy like Blake is precisely because he would be a placeholder, and shouldn’t cost much, thus allowing the acquisition of other people like Furcal.

I have mixed feelings about this trade. I like it for next year, and losing Street and Smith

doesn’t bother me that much. CarGon doesn’t bother that much either because you have to give up someone like him to get Holliday. however, I’m not a big fan of one year rentals especially when Scott Boras is involved.

Erin6 - November 10, 2008 reply

ok is it just me or are you guys

expecting either a few more moving parts either way or at least one more body on either side?

3 for 1 deals just don’t seem like BB style. I would figure that it would be more likely of a 4-2 deal with Oak including one more closer to the MLB ready average type and Clo including a far off high risk high reward type.

Just something that BB can throw in as a potential high return bonus on this whole thing

laxtonto - November 10, 2008 reply

BBeane's style

If you acquire a penchant for a certain style, it’s time to change styles…IMO.

it just seems like this deal

doesn’t seem right…

I don’t know, I haven’t really put my finger on it, but it seems off…

laxtonto - November 10, 2008 reply

perhaps more will unfold

it was written that Colorado will flip Street, and perhaps something coming the A’s way as part of that.

so colorado trades street eventually, and just decides to send the a’s something as part of it? i’ll bet against that happening.

I'm approbative!

I just hope Holiday likes the West Coast and sparse crowds.

I think he was used to it until the Rockies huge run end of last year.

drmmerchk - November 11, 2008 reply

CarGon has all kinds of potential

but this deal signals that Beane thinks the A’s can contend in 2009. I think it also signals that he’s far from done this offseason, since Holliday alone doesn’t say “contender” in my opinion.

Yeah

and Holliday doesn’t make much sense acquiring him and doing nothing else. That’s why you have to assume that the A’s sign a free agent bat or two.

we're all gonna die!

somebodyelse - November 10, 2008 reply

+1

i’m really feeling a giambi signing. my neighbor who works in the clubhouse insists giambi is on the way, word is that giambi and beane have been on the phone together all week.

I know Beane shot down the Alejo-Giambi connection, but..

A’s sign Gallego, trade for Matt Holliday.
A’s sign Alejo…

Yeah, Giambi's coming

It’ll make it easy for me to rationalize my ambivalence about success… because I f***ing hate Giambi as a person. Worst douchebag in baseball, bar none.

God, I wish Daric Barton had actually been competent this year.

How dare you

..forget Selig in a discussion of baseball douchebaggery

Ya Jason's got some serious competition for that title.

I’d put any anti-competitive owner near the top of the list — Pohlad, Loria, McClatchey. Then you have Elijah Dukes and Barry Bonds, who may or may not actually be in baseball.

AJ Pierzienskieirieirieirier

Clemens. Ozzie Guillen. Jose Canseco. Jeff Kent. dor-K.

What did Ozzie Guillen ever do to you?

K-Rod doesn't belong on this list

Aside from playing for a rival team and celebrating more visibly than you care to watch when your team just lost, what has Rodriguez ever done to warrant the label of “douchebag”?

You may not like him, but he’s not even close to these other guys we’re discussing.

You just said it

Those celebrations alone make him a douchebag.

Yeah, that's pretty much it.

Enh, I don't buy it.

Clemens, Canseco, Giambi etc are douchebags as human beings regardless of what team they play for. K-Rod is a douche only because he played for the Angels. Big big difference.

BS

K-Rod will still be a douchebag even when he’s doing his celebrations for some other team next year.

methodrampage - November 11, 2008 reply

why is Giambi a douchebag?

mikeA - November 11, 2008 reply

Agreed

He’s always seemed like a nice guy to fans and media. If you think he’s a douchebag because of the whole steroids issue and leaving the A’s then I can understand that.

Helloooo 1st - November 12, 2008 reply

Dukes and Bonds are just criminals

Dukes is clinically psychopathic— he can’t help himself (although that doesn’t mean he shouldn’t be locked up). Bonds is just selfish, nothing inherently wrong with that.

I have to admit I wasn’t including owners. Loria is a Grade A douchebag.

What makes you think Loria is anti-competitive?

I mean, his 2 world series rings surely don’t.

The Expos experience

Plus he's not marketed the Marlins any better than Crowley's marketed

the A’s. It’s all about “hold up the local population for a new stadium” in my monopoly region. It’s guys like him that got Selig elected commissioner in the first place. The Twins have been pretty good on the field too, but not because Pohlad’s been a strong revenues minded owner.

Giambi announcement within a week...

probably less. Daric can learn from one of the masters (how to juice and not get caught).

How to juice and get caught and then not get caught

I might throw John Lackey into that running, too

due solely to the permanent snarl…

giambi at least semi-apologized for something, how does that make him a worse douchebag than bonds and clemens?

That's where I stand

Though he totally screwed the A’s over. I’m quick to forgive, though

His "apology" was far worse than Bonds' denial

in that he sought to obtain the beneficial consequences of confession without leaving himself open to the liabilities of admission.

Come on Paul,

As a future attorney surely you know that Giambi would have been out of his freaking mind to confess to anything. Especially after he’s been deposed by a Federal grand jury. Would you, as an attorney, ever advise a client to “confess and apologize” on national TV?

The dude screwed up…..no doubt about it. But I don’t expect him to put his head in a noose while simultaneously pulling the trip lever. He’s paid in full for his transgressions as far as I’m concerned. If the dude can produce, show him the dotted line.

alox - November 11, 2008 reply

If I knew people would be suckered in by that ridiculous travesty,

I’d have advised him to do exactly what he did. It appears to have worked. I don’t know HOW it worked, but it did.

I’m not annoyed at him for his pseudo-confession (although I am annoyed that he’s a jackass), I’m annoyed at the general public for paying any attention to it.

I can tell you why it "worked".

He was sincere, or at least appeared sincere. Coupled with the fact that by all general accounts, he’s a likable enough guy, he gave the people enough of what they wanted to hear to assuage their sense of morality. Most folks realize that he didn’t even have to do what he did, limited in scope though it was.

alox - November 11, 2008 reply

Plausible denial is Beane's M.O.

What does this mean? Who is he denying to, and what is he denying?

It means...

…that Beane denies pretty much everything as part of his standard operating procedure, whether it’s true or not.

that’s not true

I don't belive that.

+1 Oak Si!

mrod - November 10, 2008 reply

Do the A's have a definite interest in Furcal or is it all just AN speculation?

Erin6 - November 10, 2008 reply

It's been discussed by national media

so, to the extent that any of these rumors are ever credible, those ones are.

BobbyCrosbysGirl - November 10, 2008 reply

I am super excited about Holliday

Seriously! Very, Very Happy!

But… I am very sad to lose Smith. I really like him and love watching him pitch. Plus he is the one player my BF doesn’t have a problem with me drooling over because he looks just like him! I feel like we didn’t get enough time with Greggy. It would have been nice to have him around for another year, see what he could really do. I will miss him.

enough time with Greggy

that’s what I was feeling in May (the second coming of Tom Glavine) but by September, the second coming of Ariel Prieto…

You're probably going to have to change your username soon as well.

Who’s betting Crosby is getting shipped out for a bag of balls.

I'll take him for a bag of balls.

I can turn him into my pet.

Good Crosby… good Crobsy. No, don’t swing at that slider.

Keep in mind you'd have to pay his salary too...

What's the point of getting rid of him now?

If you have to pay his salary, might as well keep him. He’s not good, but he’s got speed and he can defend. He wouldn’t be the worst utility infielder in the world if they sign a better SS.

He's worth more to a team with a replacement level SS (read St. Louis)

than he is to Oakland as a bench player. Pennington is a much better bench player because he’s an outstanding basestealer.

I'm not convinced Crosby is better than Izturis

Nor am I

In 2008, he sucked offensively AND defensively.

Smith was one of my favorites, too.

But his awesome pick-off move is probably even more valuable in the NL than in the AL. Also, someone said he’s a decent hitter (well, decent for a pitcher).

iglew - November 10, 2008 reply

Definitely the best A's hitting pitcher now that Harden is gone, lol

Duke was just embarrassing at the plate last season.

You're forgetting The Cupcake Slugger

But he didn't get his chance until he left Oakland

God, who’s the best A’s hitting pitcher at this point— Eveland?

Unrelated, but the 49ers really, really suck. Not a good idea to throw interceptions in your own end when you have a 1-point lead.

unfortunately, they don't suck as bad as the Raiders...

that was my one saving grace for this season. The Whiners would be worse… but, they’re not.

Why would anyone project Cust in our lineup, let alone in the 4 hole?

Jesus haven’t you seen enough already?

Cust is a very valuable player, btw.

He’s a major bang for the buck. He makes most of his outs via strickouts, but he still gets on base at a great clip.

Exactly

And having him in front of Holliday could ensure that our best hitter has someone who will get on base hitting in front of him consistently.

I like Cust as the #2 hitter personally

Especially if by some miracle Chavez returns to form

Cust, what an asshole

kaweahkaweah - November 10, 2008 reply

Yeah.

How dare that selfish bastard take walks instead of purposefully fouling off pitches so he can get more hits like Ichiro.

rofl

Buck Turgidson - November 10, 2008 reply

lolling

Best hitters should be 1-2-4, in descending order of OBP

Holliday probably should hit #2.

In case you’re wondering, BTW, my experience with video game baseball confirms that this is, in fact, the best batting order…

I'm so relieved.

I was wondering how video game baseball analysis tied into that.

Ah but which video baseball games?

MVP Baseball 2005

Best baseball game ever. Ever. No contest.

But I’ve never played MLB The Show, so.

I'm right there with you. Ever.

I was asking PT which game he’s using as support.

Best baseball game ever not called Out Of The Park

Yes Sir!!

I was so pissed when they stopped making the game

Spidz34 - November 10, 2008 reply

The Show is really good

but it’s no MVP. Even though it’s several years old, it still beats the show on any of the next-gen systems. Amazing stuff.

Yeah

Both The Show and MLB 2K7 made some nice cosmetic changes here and there, but neither matches the overall fun of playing MVP.

You folks apparently haven't found the joys of playing

RBI Baseball

The game where ALL the players look like Cust, even the black ones!

I like Major League Baseball more than RBI

Neither can hold a candle to Little League Baseball or Baseball Stars

Bases Loaded.

salb918 - November 10, 2008 reply

That Paste/Bay combo was deadly

I'll always remember the umps: Yuk, Dum, Boo, Bum

salb918 - November 10, 2008 reply

Love it

To this day, I sing that tune whenever I see a relief pitcher come into a game

Ken Griffey, Jr. Baseball

The first one, not the sequel. Terry Steinbach 4EVR!

+1

That was totally my childhood. Abusing baserunning and scoring on every play.

rightbackin - November 10, 2008 reply

Base Wars

DMOAS - November 10, 2008 reply

I enjoy this game, and still occasionally play it

But there’s a few strange bugs in there that just annoy me.

Over the course of a 162 game season, I’d estimate getting 5-10 guys picked off THIRD with the medium lead. And there’s the weird thing where teams frequently leave starters in until they get hurt (meaning they’re at 0% for a LONG time, then their arm falls off).

thejd44 - November 10, 2008 reply

That's not a bug...

It’s a team managed by Dusty Baker.

I'm specifically thinking of MVP NCAA 2007

I played as Oklahoma State, and had Corey Brown’s alter ego hitting second…

GreenNGoldGirl - November 10, 2008 reply

COREY BROWN!!!!!!!

As in with the Stockton Ports last season Corey Brown??

Yes

He’s ridiculously good in that game. He was something like 1100 OPS, 30 steals, 25 HR for me in that season.

...and how many strikeouts?

franks a lot - November 10, 2008 reply

A lot... but keep in mind that a typical 9-inning video game for me involves 9 or 10 strikeouts...

I don’t have the greatest joystick discipline.

[I know what you’re thinking. Don’t even go there.]

i was thinking you

probably wouldnt be a good fighter pilot

I'm pretty sure he asked you not to go there.

That's not where I asked him not to go...

If you don't have good joystick discipline

You better have her close her eyes.

Is that where we shouldn’t go?

Am I going to get banned for this post?

thejd44 - November 10, 2008 reply

Last I checked, "go" = urinate and "come" = ejaculate. You're safe.

I love your work

Especially the remix to “Ignition.”

Never really like MVP '07

Couldn’t get into the whole joystick swing concept.

best 2nd and 4th, favoring OBP 2nd and SLG 4th

No reason to waste SLG in the first spot.

Hey, its BtB guys!

If we sign Furcal, he’s a lock at #1.

Holliday, I assume, is a lock at #3.

So the question is do you put Cust at #4 for the HR or #2 for the OBP? I always liked him as a 2 hitter, but we really don’t have a #4 this way, and Sweeney is every bit the stereotypical high average no SLG #2.

The point is that you do NOT want your best hitter hitting #3

Not, not, not.

Why? Because he has a ton of innings where he’s batting with 2 outs and no one on base.

Really?

It would seem that the extra ABs of batting 3 instead of 4 make up for the 36% (or so) of first innings where your #3 comes up with the bases empty.

It's from The Book.

Again, not all that much of a difference, but that’s the result you get when you nitpick all the details.

Interesting

In addition to that

If the best hitter has to come up with nobody on base, you’d rather have nobody out (beginning of 2nd) than with 2 outs.

thejd44 - November 10, 2008 reply

i find that untrue

because if theres anyone you want batting in front of you its your one and two hitters, presumably two of the best guys on your team at getting on base. They don’t call them table setters for nothin’.

UOSportsDude - November 10, 2008 reply

You want Holliday hitting 4th

with Cust hitting 3rd. We have a .400 OBP (almost) guy that we can hit ahead of our run-producer. Sounds good to me.

no

because they get less at bats than if they were hitting 2nd and 3rd.

That is only true if the #3 hitter makes the last out of the game.

How many last outs of the game do you think the #3 hitter will make, especially when it’s a guy that gets on base 40% of the time? I’d say MAYBE 20 times. Out of those 20, how many of them are in games that actually matter, rather than just being at the end of the 9th in a 8-2 win or a 7-1 loss? Probably not a meaningful number. That batting order stuff is a load of crap. You bat Holliday behind Cust because the probability that Cust is on base and Holliday drives him in is a HELL of a lot higher than the probability that Holliday gets on and Cust drives him in.

all the strickouts!!!!!11

naw i understand what you’re saying. the difference may indeed not be a huge number, but it’s still a fact.

that said, i put sweeney 2nd, holliday 3rd, giambi 4th, cust 5th. ;)

flipgatey3 - November 11, 2008 reply

You'd be surprised.

There’s about an 18 PA gap between each spot in the batting order. Even .400 OBPs make outs 60% of the time.

Awesome

Now I rest easy, knowing why I got bumped down from 3rd to 4th on my JV team.

methodrampage - November 10, 2008 reply

People laugh at the video game thing

But I go with the 1, 2, 4 thing. My 4th best hitter is usually my #3 hitter in all my Out of the Park games, and I frequently score more runs than I should “on paper.” And OOTP is a sim, so it’s not like I have much control over the guys doing well.

The best hitter, overall, should be your #2 guy if possible (according to The Book, anyway). If I recall correctly, you want the overall best guy #2, the best OBP guy (assuming he doesn’t have a ton of power) #1, and #4 should probably be the “classic #4 hitter” type. The whole “best hitter batting third” thing is a weird wrong thing to do.

Of course this is all worth probably not even one full win over the course of a season, so it’s a fairly moot point. But still, may as well do the optimal thing.

thejd44 - November 10, 2008 reply

Also, COME JOIN THE GUBA DAMMIT.

mikev - November 11, 2008 reply

I hate TTO players in the middle of the lineup

I’m sure someone could prove me wrong statistically, but I hate having Three-True-Outcome (walk, strikeout, homer) batters like Cust (and Durazo before him) hitting in the middle of the lineup. These types of players are essentially unable to adjust their approach to the situation, and it drives me nuts. With RISP and the bases not loaded, the walks are less valuable than the average plate appearance, the strikeouts more costly, and I never feel like the occasional random home run makes up for all the lost opportunities to get a run home by simply making contact.

I prefer to see players like Cust hitting 6th or 7th or 8th, where you don’t expect as much, and a positive result feels more like a bonus. Yeah, that’s probably an emotional argument, not a logical one. And yeah, perhaps Cust is the best #3 hitter in this new lineup. But to me, if a TTO batter is the optimal batter for the middle of your lineup, then your lineup still isn’t constructed very well.

kenarneson - November 10, 2008 reply

Are you Klaw-baiting us?

If so, $5 please.

Hey it's Ken Arneson!

You still feel this way after a year of the RBI Machine?

Yes, I do.

I like Cust. I appreciate what he can and cannot do. I just want a team where there are better options for the #3, #4, and #5 hitters than a guy like him.

Kinda how I felt about Buddy Groom in the late ‘90s. He was a useful reliever, but if you’re a winning team, he’s at the back of your bullpen, not the front. When he’s getting more high-leverage innings than anyone else, it’s a symptom of your team’s overall weakness.

kenarneson - November 10, 2008 reply

That simile just exploded your credibility

Dude, it's Ken Arneson

He could light his credibility on fire and toss it down a 500-foot mine and still be worth listening to…

And after that was he known as Arneson the Gray

Oddly enough

I am posting this from the bottom of a 500-foot mine. I fell down here in an incredible explosion.

kenarneson - November 10, 2008 reply

OK, so, your margin for error is gone

Watch yourself, pal.

There's a whole in my heart, as deep as a mine

We’re sending out love down the mine

There's a hole in this mountain, it's dark and it's deep

and God only knows all the secrets it keeps

There's a hole in my bucket

Dear Liza, dear Liza

-w

I always liked them at the top of the order

Cust is always on base, and at the end of the day, that’s the most important thing. Bat him 2nd. He isn’t that slow.

Believe it or not, Cust adjusts his approach to the situation.

His BA is higher and his walk rate lower when he has RBI opportunities on the pond. Ie runners at 2nd or 3rd with no outs, or 3rd with 1 out.

that may or may not be true, but no one will believe it.

+1

the lesson is, never try.

flipgatey3 - November 11, 2008 reply

He's a coward, that's what he is.

A strickout-loving coward boy. A prancing Nancy OBP walkathon coward face.

Valuable for a losing team maybe

You don’t win anything with a 230 #4 hitter who strikes out at a record pace

The man’s a defensive liability who takes way too many close pitches. If they A’s really are going to try and make a run they better not be counting on Cust to be the cleanup hitter.

Please attempt to understand baseball a little.

+1

We have people in here talking about hitting Cust 2nd

and you’re telling me I need to understand baseball? a 230 hitter who strikes out close to 200 time a year in the #2 hole?

Just when I think this place can’t get any more ridiculous.

no, he'd be a #2 hitter getting on base about 38% of the time

forget about batting average

your reply is a lot friendlier than than the one I was typing

i’ll defer to you.

2nd is exactly where I'd bat Cust

Furcal or Sweeney or Buck
Cust
Holliday
Chavez
Suzuki

and go from there. People getting on base followed by people who drive in runs. Yay!!!!

I'd go for

Furcal
Buck
Cust
Holliday
Sweeney
Chavez
Suzuki
Ellis
The SS

Get our best RBI guys, Holliday and Sweeney, right behind Cust.

Is Furcal playing outfield?

I assume you mean the other OF

Yeah yeah whatever

I’m not used to making lineups with actual hitters in them.

I like that lineup with Cunningham.

Actually the one I forgot was Barton.

Good thing I left that nine spot open…

In all seriousness, I really hope he rediscovers his stroke, because a 1-4 of Furcal/Barton/Cust/Holliday could be potentially very good.

I had Cunningham playing the second shortstop position, of course

In all honesty, we really can't expect much worse

from Barton, right? He has to be better than last year, I would hope.

.279/.419/.500/.919 in September

He still is a talented hitter, and he’s still young. I expect him to turn it around.

One thing's for sure, he is excellent in September.

Do people on here even understand the value of productive outs?

Cust hitting two means far less balls in play as well as clogging the bases up for people that run well (like Holliday) A #2 hitter has a job to do that goes beyond walks and OBP. I swear half the people on here have been brainwashed by Beane.

Friendly, non-condescending reply

Whew, I feel much better

Personally, I find walks more productive than outs

but that’s just me.

Last year, batting in the middle of the lineup, Jack Cust had 12 ABs with a runner on 3rd and less than 2 outs. He picked up 10 RBIs in those 12 ABs, so would you please stop talking until you become more informed about baseball? Thanks.

You are a very ignorant baseball fan.

So this is what's become of my swingin' A's fan base?

It’s now a bill beane cult?

This baseball by the numbers bull can only go so far. At some point you have to use so good old fashioned baseball sense.

Cust is in no way a #2 hitter or even a #4 hitter for a winning team. If you can hide him at 7 or 8 then fine. But we have to get off this sabermetrics obsession.

Yeah, what did a sabermetrics-minded GM ever accomplish?

At some point you have to use so good old fashioned baseball sense.

Why?

At some point we need to get off this "electricity" thing and go back to good old fashioned.. "not-electricity" thing

I'm all about the hunter-gatherer thing

Back in my day, my car got 40 rods to the hogshead and that's the way I like it.

Back in my day the A's won championships

When did they win a championship while valuing outs

over walks?

It's not valuing walks over outs

It’s put outs vs strike outs

It’s having different parts to your lineup and having players that know their roles. you don’t need or want 9 players that all do the same thing offensively.

If you value someone with a worse OBP than Cust

with fewer K’s you’re valuing Outs over Walks

You can't make a blanket statement like that

If I have a player who’s OBP is 20-40 points lower than Cust but strikes out half as much I would argue he’s more valuable as a #2 hitter. And that’s what really kicked this whole thing off… people talking about Cust hitting 2.

Sure you can argue that, but you'd be

valuing outs over walks.

throws up hands and leaves post

it’s not worth arguing over

but I doubt you’ll see Cust hitting second ….. and us winning any way

peace

you wan to "hide" cust at 7 or 8

in what magical fantasy land do the a’s have all these hitters with a .360 OBP, who strike out half as much as cust?
or is it that you prefer some imaginary guy hitting ahead of cust?

Perhaps you are talking about Sandy Alderson?

Because he was into numbers too. Hate to tell you.

Go look at the walk totals for the 88-90 A’s.

I'm not against walks or OBP at all

but it isn’t the answer for everything. especially when players have other major short comings

Like the ability to hit 500-foot home runs

33 times a year

Who the hell is hitting 500 foot HRs?

33 times a year?

Cust?

33 HRs last year. Silly.

33 500 foot home runs?

if u say so

They'd have rolled that far eventually

Sorry, I fall prey to my own hyperbole sometimes

only 32 of them went 500 feet.

The 33rd went 600.

I hear you

Regarding your Cust at #2, you have to expand on your point more precisely or people on AN will jump all over you like you are an Angels fan.

If I’m not mistaken, I think what you were trying to say is that having 9 players that have the same strengths and weaknesses as hitters is worse than having hitters with a diverse range of strengths and weaknesses. And I think everyone agrees with that.

The question is, how much team OBP is that worth. I see it as a question of OBP at what cost of versatility rather than Walks versus Outs.

I don't agree with "that", at least not to any significant degree

I'd much rather have 9 TTO players than 8 TTO players and an Eckstein clone

Diversity for the sake of diversity is bad. Homogeneity, on the other hand, is impossible anyway so I think this tangent is meaningless.

yeah, what are we talking about here

we shouldn’t have cust because we already have cust-like hitters at every other position?

who are all these guys and why are they not hitting 30 home runs and walking 100 times a year?

Back in the small ball days of productive outs

When Canseco bunted McGwire to scoring position

With the two Hendersons and the top of the lineup

and Carney Lansford before the power

They knew how to put a winning lineup together

Lansford behind the power I mean

You were right the 1st time

Lansford never hit behind the power. As much as I liked Carney, he wasn’t a good choice to hit #2.

http://www.baseball-almanac.com/box-scores/boxscore.php?boxid=198707120OAK

Lansford hit 5-7 most of the time

He saw more of the two hole from 89 on.

And he was a good choice for a #2 hitter. You want someone there that can put the ball in play and doesn’t strike out a lot. Lansford fit that bill.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/OAK/1989_bo.shtml

You have serious issues with data

Finding a single box score from 1987 in which lansford hit 5th is seriously not convincing. First off, they were an 81-81 team that year. Secondly, even in 1987 Lansford hit 3rd more often than he hit in any other spot in the lineup.

Moving on to the WS winning team, here’s every A’s batting order from every game in 1989:

Lansford hit 2nd more frequently than any other player, and hit 2nd in the majority of his games.

In the other playoff years, it was similar. In 1988, Lansford hit leadoff most frequently, in 1990 he hit 2nd almost exclusively.

You’re busy bragging up your 35 years of baseball experience in the other thread. It would be helpful if you either accurately remembered those 35 years or double checked the data to see if it fit with your perceptions.

MrIncognito - November 11, 2008 reply

sigh

Rickey is one of the greatest players of all time. So, yeah, obviously having Rickey on the team would be great.

bring back rickey!!

Rickey Henderson would've been the best leadoff hitter ever

Even if he never attempted one steal. His stolen bases obviously helped and made him a better player, but they’re not the REASON he was a great leadoff hitter.

He was a great leadoff hitter because he got on base 40% of the time.

thejd44 - November 10, 2008 reply

good post

flipgatey3 - November 11, 2008 reply

I dream of bringing antelope down with my teeth

That’s real living there.

QOTM

rebus - November 11, 2008 reply

Yes, why discuss rational concerns when we can have Truthiness?

You argue about productive outs, and then when facted with the fact that Cust made very productive outs, you revert to your need for every hitter to appeal to your sense of the Way Things Ought To Be.

Let's go get Nick Swisher back too

You can’t have enough 240 hitters with high OBP

And some point you have to have someone that drives in runners and moves people with some consistency. There’s a reason the A’s have come up short in the playoffs during the Beane era.

I nominate you

to run the rest of the AL West.

Pretty please

Please don't :(

Ok, but you have to take Bavasi back

I don't actually see the difference.

Actually, Bavasi was funny. So I guess there’s that.

Because the playoffs are pretty random and you've been unlucky?

But we haven't been lucky enough to get out of round #1

but once?

run those odds through your computer

About 1/16 off the top of my head?

Hardly spectacular.

You have a computer on the top of your head?

Pretty much

He has a slide rule and computer taped to his head-- all in his mother's basement

You forgot the TI-89 surgically implanted in my right knee

..Titanium

Hey now

I’m not taped to anyone’s head, last I checked.

Sliderule - November 10, 2008 reply

Playoff record, by year:

2006: 3-4
2003: 2-3
2002: 2-3
2001: 2-3
2000: 2-3

That’s bad luck, period.

Also, Jeremy Giambi and Miguel Tejada forgetting how to run the bases has nothing to do with walking, nor does Jermaine Dye snapping his leg in half.

Technically, Dye's injury does..

QOTM

Scottbass - November 11, 2008 reply

If only he had swung and missed like Cust rather than hitting the ball

I think JL means he wasn't able to walk after

I realise.

Was making a snarky comment all on my own!

Actually Tejada was walking

which was the problem.

Who lead the team in RBI last year?

I’ll give you a hint. It was Jack Cust.

33 home runs and only 77 RBI

Take a look at the RBI of other players who hit 33

Grady Sizemore 90
David Wright 124
Chase Utley 104
Mark Teixeira 120
Pat Burrell 86
Hanley Ramirez 67
Jim Thome 89

Cust scored 77 runs as well. Now let’s look at runs scored by other players with a 375 OBP

Ryan Ludwick 104
Carlos Beltran 115
Justin Morneau 97
Ian Kinsler 102
Johnny Damon 95
Dustin Pedroia 118
Jason Bay 111

Now of course you’re going to score more runs if you’re on a team with better hitters …… but even Randy Winn scored more runs (86) than Cust, despite have an OBP a few points lower at 363. Randy Winn who played for the power house known as the 2008 SF Giants.

Bottom line is the game is about scoring and driving in runs. OBP is important but it can’t be used as an all in one defense.

NO ONE WAS ON BASE IN FRONT OF HIM

AND NO ONE HIT BEHIND HIM.

The A’s had no offense last season. At all. Jack Cust was THE ONLY GOOD HITTER ON THE TEAM. Runs and RBIs are functionally team stats, not individual stats.

you can't get rbi's if nobody's on base.

If you organize the teams in OBP, the teams with the highest avg OBP are the teams with the most runs scored(with the exception of the twins who hit something like 320 w/ risp, a feat they will not repeat). OBP correlates to runs more than any other stat.

Cheezombie - November 11, 2008 reply

So your argument is that leading the teams in RBIs and runs (which don't even measure individual performance) makes him bad at driving in runners and scoring runs?

Fail.

nevermoor - November 11, 2008 reply

Hence us trading for Matt Holliday

He drives in runs.

You are advocating guys that move runners around on the bases while making outs. I’d prefer guys that can steal a bag without our guy having to sacrifice the out. The name of the game is to get guys on base and then get them home from said base. There’s no need to waste outs moving them from first to second or second to third, just get them home.

The worst managing I’ve ever seen is when managers get the first guy on base in the bottom of the ninth to try to tie the game, and then immediately bunt him to second. The next guy usually grounds to second, moving the runner to third, and then the next guy flies to center and ends the game. Useless baseball.

I am not advocating that

I said Cust makes a poor number #4 hitter and even poorer #2. More balls in play mean more runs being driven in. A walk isn’t moving anyone unless you have a force… and even then it’s one one bag at a time. Base hits move runners more than one bag at a time and score runs. It’s dangerous to elevate the importance of OBP and discount the batting average all together. If you look at the OBP then I want to see runs scored to go with all the times your getting on base. If you’re a poor baserunner it’s not going to be as high. If you’re going to hit 3-4-5 then I want to see your RBI totals … OBP doesn’t help a lot there. Cust is deficient on both fronts.

More balls in play mean more runs being driven in

At least we’ve identified the problem: somehow you have come to believe this statement, which is unequivocally, absolutely, blatantly NOT TRUE.

Paul, it is true

given a fixed number of runners in scoring position in front of you (call it 100-completely made up), more balls in play would increase the number of RBIs. Specifically, if BABIP is .300, then you’d have about .3 of a hit with RISP per extra ball in play.

Note that this is all Ceteris Paribus, I’m just saying that assuming nothing else is sacrificed for the extra balls in play, those do have marginal value in terms of RBI.

ohmangoAs - November 11, 2008 reply

Oh, sure

More balls in play with RISP means more runners being driven in.

More balls in play with men on first results in LESS runners being driven in, because you GIDP and end innings.

Since the two basically cancel out…

Good point on the GIDP

hadn’t considered that.

But I’m not sure you can emphatically say

More balls in play mean more runs being driven in

At least we’ve identified the problem: somehow you have come to believe this statement, which is unequivocally, absolutely, blatantly NOT TRUE.

based on

the two basically cancel out…

Also, batting a player in from first rarely happens, so DP’s don’t lower RBI much.
the only scenario in which DP hurts RBI is in a 1 out, bases loaded or 1 out, first and second situation.

I doubt those come up that often, while the extra hits with RISP I brought up should happen more often. So I doubt they cancel out.

ohmangoAs - November 11, 2008 reply

For an individual player, yes

but he didn’t say more balls in play led to more RBIs for a certain hitter, he said they led to more runs being driven in. Which isn’t true. The extra RBIs for the first player are just “stolen” from the players hitting behind him. They don’t help the team any.

OK, what about the Twins?

Are they not a team that has players that can drive in runners and move people over with consistency? Are they not a team tat emphasises this?

So, I presume the Twins have won a WS?

You know what's much more valuable than productive outs?

Not getting out.

Productive safes! Yay!!!!!!!

I will definately use that phrase.

brilliant

We need a sarcastic saying like Productive OOts for situations like this

OOts

Is that Canadien?

I think it's South African

Canadian would be “oats.”

I'm all about pOOts

There should be a glossary for stuff like this

“productive outs”? “clogging the bases”?
welcome to AN, dusty baker!

I've been brainwashed by Beane

So brainwashed that I don’t even believe in “clogging the bases”!

Just half? There's some work to be done.

You can't ground into a double play when you don't hit ground balls...

oh good

I was worried that at an emotional time like this we would be missing out on some good ol visceral Cust bashing.

Don't you guys have a primer on Ks/AVG/OBP you can just link to at times like this?

No, we just call people morons until they go away.

[hides behind sturdy object]

[watches PT enter room]

I like it.

methodrampage - November 10, 2008 reply

HAHAHAHA

Best reply ever.

I hate you and find you stupid.

Nothing personal, though. It’s just a reaction to people who think Jack Cust isn’t good.

For serious

what’s with the Cust hate? He walks and hits the ball a mile. It’s effing beautiful. What is so much more exciting about the Ecksteins of the world that never strike out but never hit it out of the infield?

Don't get me wrong,

I loves me some Cust, but watching the guy try to hit a curveball is torture.

Sliderule - November 10, 2008 reply

because he's looking fastball

like every other baseball player in the world

He's actually pretty good at laying of the pitches he can't hit

Yup

Pretty tough to OBP what he does if you’re just hacking at slop. See Feliz, Pedro.

jsullivan - November 11, 2008 reply

Yet in 2006 Feliz drove in more runs and scored as many as Cust did last year

With a 281 OBP

I in no way am saying Feliz is a good player but be careful thinking HRs and OBP always translates into scoring or driving in runs.

I'll give you a hint why he drove in and scored more runs than Cust did

The hint is: he had the fucking greatest hitter in baseball history in his lineup hitting 2 spots ahead of him.

Ha! I read his comment as 2008 and thought you had lost your marbles.

rebus - November 12, 2008 reply

…

johnjahafanclub - November 10, 2008 reply

jack cust is the man

you have insulted his honor. take that back sir les I challenge yee to a duel.

Glove slap...

baby, glove slap…

Finally...

A chance to bust out my “I heart dueling” bumper sticker and demand satisfaction.

OkayJay81 - November 10, 2008 reply

Did you know that trial by combat has not been officially abolished as a common law doctrine?

Dude, yer killin' me

Res ipsa yesterday, trial by combat today… I come here to escape law school.

So do I

Just handed in my final memo of the semester about 3 hours ago… hence the drunk posting.

Oh, then congratulations are in order

Ugh, I don't even want to think about Memo's

Reminds me what I should be working on.

OkayJay81 - November 10, 2008 reply

It reminds you about having wayward apostrophy's?

(pun intended)

Finding Memo?

you know what they call it if you badger the witness?

Trial by wombat.

And if you badger the witness to death

Mortal Wombat

Wombat wombat wombat wombat

fungus fungus!

Actually, a badger isn’t even remotely related to a wombat from a taxonomic perspective. I blame monkeyball for that.

That is to say

I don’t blame him for MAKING a badger unrelated to a wombat, I blame him for confusing the issue.

God, it’s a good thing I’m not writing that memo right now.

That's only because you refuse to recognize the legitimacy of a flat, regressive taxonomy

Correct

Dictatorship of the wombat is inevitable.

Ryan Howard?

Or do #3 hitters who hit .250 not count at all?

Blikes hates strickouts

double plays?

how bout all the double plays with 1st and 2nd no outs?

you fail so hard for that

I think it's too much

especially if it’s just for a one-year rental. Why trade Carlos Gonzalez (the prize piece in the Haren deal) for a player that leaves after one season?? And please don’t tell me that we get two draft picks … that hardly seems worth it.
Street and Smith I can totally do without … no big deal. But either Beane and Co. really saw something in Gonzalez that scared them to death, or they’re planning on working out an extension for Holliday … but trading Carlos Gonzalez straight up for Holliday for one season doesn’t even seem worth it to me … what am I missing?

The "straight up" was supposed to be bold ... sorry, my head's spinning.

Turns out Anderson was the prize of the Haren deal.

Syphon - November 10, 2008 reply

Agreed, I would not trade Anderson for Gonzalez in a one-for-one swap

Plus, Cunningham could very well be better than CarGo next year.

I said before, CarGo has a much higher ceiling, but he’s also less likely to reach it.

I really like how he played in center field...

Cunningham could outhit him significantly and be less valuable if Patrol Craft keeps playing good defense up the middle.

I agree.

However, there is already a bad hitting fantastic defensive CF on the roster. His name is Rajai Davis.

No, I’m not saying CarGo will amount to nothing more than Davis.

That's the reason why I'm surprised at this deal

Gonzalez was really a standout defender last season, one of the best CF in baseball. The A’s typically don’t let that kind of defender get away.

How did his D compare to Rajai Davis?

Gonzalez was slightly better last season

If you don't think draft picks are worth it, you're clearly not in the same boat as Beane.

I think they gave up a lot so they COULD sign him long term. Hopefully they will. If they don’t… I’d probably rather have CarGon, but the A’s have a track record for failing to develop hitters consistently, and CarGon was almost ALL tools, so there was a strong chance he wouldn’t have lived up to his potential IMO

Yeah, I guess you have to ask yourself ..."Self, would you trade CarGon for two draft picks next year?

I’d answer “No.”

Gonzalez had no plate discipline before coming to the A's

And I’m guessing that the A’s just don’t love that approach. I think that would have a lot to do with it. It’s funny, in some ways I expect Gonzalez to suddenly have more power at Coors because a lot of those doubles will turn into home runs. But I think C-Gon needs more seasoning in the minors.

Yeah, my take on it is that Beane & Co.

acquired Gonzalez for his trade-value down the road, in hopes that he would be a chip that would be valuable in getting somebody like, perhaps, Matt Holliday.

He is not the type of hitter that fits in with the Oakland mold, but he is still vluable as a top prospect.

but does cargon have more trade value now than he did a year ago when the a’s traded for him?

No

A prospect loses value every down year he has. If you look at Gonzalez’s stats between AAA and Oakland last year, they were very subpar. If he never improves his plate discipline, Beane made a damn smart sell-high here. We’ll have to wait and see.

and he probably had more value today than he will have after another year like last year...

despite all his touting, it seemed to me that he had a lot more seasoning to do down in the minors before he really becae an impact bat in the majors.

Also, somebody else brought up the point, too, that Holliday probably has more value at the deadline than Street + CarGon, but I’m not really sure on that one either. I guess that all depends on the first halves they have in 09.

excellent post

my thoughts exactly

well, thats not really true

Colorado doesnt turn doubles into homers, only thing you can really expect is more XBH and a higher BABIP there then other places, but its not the launching pad it used to be.

compensation picks

And please don’t tell me that we get two draft picks … that hardly seems worth it.

don’t we actually lose draft picks?

even assuming smith is worthless in 3-5 years…
+2 picks for holliday in 2010
-2 picks for street in 2011
-2 picks for cargon in 6 years

Assuming CarGo is a Type A, I guess.

And if CarGon is a Type A, the A's lost a lot more than two draft picks.

This assumes Street is healthy enough to qualify

And it assumes Cargon is good/healthy.

thejd44 - November 11, 2008 reply

street will almost certainly qualify. it could potentially be 2-6, i was trying to be reasonable with 2-4.

I like it

My pros:

1. Whether or not you believe in “protection,” I would put Cust in front of Holiday. Pitchers will be less likely to throw him all the junk that he can’t hit because he, of course, will take a walk, setting the table for Holliday.

2. Holliday fills the right handed power hole that everybody in the entire world is aware of…makes the A’s less susceptible to lefties.

3. Takes car of the carousel that the A’s had in left (Cust, Murton, Cunningham, Denorfia, Davis, etc etc etc)

4. Several articles lately about the possibility of Beane having up to 80 million in payroll indicates they may be able to sign him long term. If not, they get a year of Holliday plus draft picks, which we all love anyways.

5. Greg Smith was expendable, Huston Street was a whiner

My Cons

1. CarGon was our future CF and our only five-tool prospect, but we all know tools don’t always = success. Granted, I think he had a lot of success ahead of him, the A’s weren’t helping in his development because you know… he was a hitter and not a pitcher.

2. He’ll be expensive.

3. The A’s were anything but locks to make a run at the playoffs next year. It helps. But Anaheim is Anaheim and Texas has a slew of good prospects, just like us.

My solution to Con #1… Switch Jemile Weeks to CF. He won’t be ready for a couple of years, but I think he’s the only solution to our current gap in CF. Unless Sweeney develops SOME power, I don’t think he’ll be good enough to stay his whole career. This also leaves 2B of the future open for Cardenas, who’s not good enough to play short and doesn’t have enough power to stick at 3rd.

I ultimately expect Jemile Weeks to play CF for the 2011 Athletics

He just does not seem like an infielder to me.

Here's to hoping to BJ Upton-esque transition to CF.

methodrampage - November 10, 2008 reply

Since protection has been proven time and again to not exist

It would be wiser to have Holliday in front of Cust. If pitchers are ever less likely to risk walking Cust, it’s when Holliday is already on base.

thejd44 - November 11, 2008 reply

Other way around makes more sense

They’ll both be on base a lot and Holliday is more likely to drive in Cust than the other way around. And it’s perfectly fine

mikeA - November 11, 2008 reply

When

was the last time we had this problem?

The Boras Thing

I know it’s fashionable to say “OMG Boras, ewww”, and believe me I hate him as much as the next sports fan, but there is a silver lining here.

The A’s are – at best – a lightly attended potentially contending team. All we have to lure Holliday is money. Boras, coincidentally, would murder his grandmother for $20. If we can make Holliday the deal he wants (6/120? 7/150? Whatever it is.) Boras is exactly the kind of agent who will make sure he takes it rather than signing for less with the Red Sox or something.

We have the money, it won’t cripple us. Lets get the deal done.

For $20, he'd demand an option to murder his grandfather, too

GreenNGoldGirl - November 10, 2008 reply

That's an awful thing to say about Scott Boras

but it most certainly made me laugh out loud. One of the reasons Pacific was appealing was that Scott Boras graduated from the Sport Management program here in 1982. I strive for his success, without the money-sucking fiend part of it ;]

True, although Boras had a leg up in that he actually played pro ball

Boras's "success, without the money-sucking fiend part of it"

= “Eric Chavez, when healthy”

iglew - November 10, 2008 reply

good post

Happy with mixed emotions

Sad to see Carlos go because I thought he would be special but again we would probably lose him as soon as he got to that point. I want to see the A’s try to sign Holliday and then just let Chavez go or trade him for nothing just to get rid of that contract. Does anybody know if there is real interest in Furcal from the A’s or is this just a seculation and hope on here? because if they added Furcal and combined with the current pieces you havea good team and makes perfect sense even if they do not attempt to resign holliday.

Why do the majority think we are over paying?

Street= going down hill, was demoted late last season.

CarGon= No discipline and was not developing, thus sent down.

Smith= Average at best. Great pickoff move which we will all miss
but the biggest thing not mentioned at all today is the guy had Elbow surgery
this off-season.

Great point on Smith

"Was not developing"

Geez, can we give a guy who most teams would’ve kept in the minors another season or two, a little time??!!

Sure

But his numbers in the minors aren’t that great. He’s the same age as Cunningham. Cunningham as a 880 OPS in the minors. Gonzalez, 813. Cunningham has shown the ability to produce offensively in the minors, regardless of league or home park. Gonzalez not so much.

Anderson aside, I’d take Cunningham over Gonzalez too.

100% Agree

Ok, you guys follow that stuff closer than I do ...

perhaps I drank the Kool-Aid when we traded Haren, and I considered him a “can’t miss” when he really can (miss, that is.)

Cunningham has definitely been more consistent

But Gonzalez was/is one of those guys that has practically unfair tools. And he had all five of them. More power potential, better defense, ridiculous arm.

It’s comparing two different types of prospects…

Well, OK, I should have pointed out that Gonzales' has good tools

But to date, except for a season here or there, he’s not translated his tools into actual production, even in the minors. And unlike Cunningham, prior to coming to the A’s, he spent his whole career in environments favourable to hitters. Cunningham, when he was with the WS, was in more pitcher friendly enviroments, and yet, he still outhit Gonzales.

Also, Gonzales has good tools. But I wouldn’t say that he’s got “unfair” tools. They aren’t out of this world great. They aren’t better than other young toolsy OFs really.

Yeah, they’re 2 different type of prospects, but, they’re both OFs, they’re both competing for the same spots.

His plate discipline is also an issue.

Don't give up on Street.

Unless he’s hiding an injury, he has too much pre-2008 success to think 2008 is his new level of performance.

We aren't

We’re just (1) Tired of him, because with closers you remember the failures more than the successes and (2) looking forward to the Devine era.

Oh, and (3) already 99% sure he was gone before spring training.

You know, I really like Joey Devine

But seriously… this place is going to fucking melt down the first time he blows a save.

And why's that?

I’d hope everyone here is intelligent enough to not overreact over a couple blown saves. If he starts blowing saves right and left then, sure, go into panic mode.

You must not have seen all the overreaction from Street's blown saves.

Because, blown saves or not, Street is still a REALLY good pitcher.

+1

AN game threads are never rational when street or cust are involved.

I'm glad somebody agrees with me on that

While I’m ok with trading Street, people here were acting like he had no value.

Turns out he’s the best player going to thye Rockies in a trade for Matt Holliday.

thejd44 - November 11, 2008 reply

Which is why Ziggy shouldn't be closing this year

Love the guy, love the delivery but you can’t have a K rate that low with iffy command and just keep hoping that the ground balls keep finding gloves.

Unless we can clone Mark Ellis three times, that is. That could work…

Ziggy has excellent command

Command isn't the same as control

If I’m Ziggy, I’m totally OK with walking guys with 0 or 1 out, because I figure I just nail them on a DP ball.

Ziggy is the rare player whose command is better than his control.

Just so he doesn't walk around "going controllo"

[waves hand over head in pathetic gesture of incomprehension]

notsellingjeans - November 10, 2008 reply

commando!

Come on DrunkPaul. SoberPaul would’ve gotten that.

Objection, assumes facts not in evidence

SoberPaul is a great misser-of-jokes as well.

He overanalyzes them too much,

like most sobermetricians.

(And so ends my brief foray into punnery. I bid adieu to you nevermoor, Nico, and the goat community).

Well played sir

67MARQUEZ - November 11, 2008 reply

You have to understand, most of AN values Street

at somewhere between Scott Proctor and Paris Hilton from a competency standpoint.

Do we value Proctor or Paris more?

Are you saying that

1) Street isn’t a very valuable reliever (he’s a product of the defense and ballpark)

or

2) He’s overrated because he’s a “closer”.

Because he’s a very good reliever. The strikeouts ticked down a bit last year and the walks ticked up, but that’s probably the result of injury more than anything.

PT's a big Steet booster, I believe

He’s referring to the uninformed opinion of much of AN based off a couple blown saves

this is right

{rifles through CGV Manual of Reprehensible Epithets to find "big Steet booster"}

Sorry, typo

It should’ve read “big teets booster”

This

what I don't like about it is

what was the point of starting the rebuilding process last year if we trade away the prospects for one year players this year?

and the coloseum isn’t exactly coors fields….

tosk - November 10, 2008 reply

And his road OPS last year (.896 or something) isn't exactly shabby

And why do you say he’s a 1 year player?

on the A's for a year I mean..

I don’t expect him to get an extention.

but your right on about the road OPS.. and the 2009 A’s are now better than the 2008 team.

tosk - November 10, 2008 reply

I agree on no extension.

I doubt Holliday signs for anything resembling a good deal, especially for a relatively low-payroll team like the A’s. The two draft picks coming back are pretty valuable.

wouldn't Street alone have nabbed the A's 2 picks?

IF Street kept up production at the same level for 2 more years.

which is somewhat of a wildcard, although highly likely.

Ah, for some reason I was under the impression he'd be gone at the same time. Never mind.

no.

Doubt a mid-reliever would land much. Remember nobody wanted him at the deadline.

Market value has little to do with Elias value

Yeah

but we are not talking about Huston Street of the past (1st 2 years in the league).
He is NOT what he used to be and hasn’t been for a couple of seasons now.

Huston Street would easily have landed the A's 2 picks

http://www.statcorner.com/pitcherRP.php?id=434718&team=OAK&year=2008&leag=A_L

By tRA, Street's best season was 2007.

And even though he seemed to suck last year, his tERA was 3.20ish

Street's post injury 2007 was totally insane

One of the best half-seasons any reliever has posted in recent memory.

Street's consistently been worth

somewhere between 15-20 runs per year over ~~average~~ during his career. He’s pretty criminally underrated these days.

Putting '-' around things makes a strikethrough?

Learn something new every day.

It's in the formatting glossary at the bottom where you post without replying

There’s a whole bunch of those

Stupid SBN 2.0

I believe reliever value is highly tied to saves.

So maybe the A’s keep him as a setup guy next year to keep his arb cost down, then they let him close in 2010 to bump up his Elias value. Or maybe that’s playing god a little too much.

well

Smith having elbow surgery reduces his value for sure so all they really gave up in the rebuilding process was Carlos? I mean that is only one guy anyone will tell you the farm system is loaded

We traded one prospect.

We still have very many of them left.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/as-grab-holliday

well the coors field thing is really misunderstood

especially post humidor implementation.

here is a very well written article about it.

when you see people pointing to his road numbers as a proxy for his true talent level, you should immediately reject the rest of their conclusions, because despite the ease of that kind of analysis, it simply isn’t accurate. You cannot just throw out Holliday’s performance in Colorado and pretend that it didn’t happen simply because the park is hitter friendly. Instead, the correct way to project his future performance is to adjust his past results to account for the park effects, and use the entire sample of data that we have.

Even with the move out of Coors Field and into pitcher friendly Oakland Coliseum, Holiday should be expected to be [at least] a .300/.380/.500 hitter. Considering he’s been both durable and a quality defensive outfielder, that makes him something like a +4 win player for 2009.

I recall when Soriano got traded from the yanks to the rangers people were projecting 50-50 seasons because of “park effects” he actually had his two worst seasons there. But he had pronounced huge HOME splits, so when he was traded from texas to the hitters graveyard that was RFK many pundits projected horrible decline in AVG/Power. Yet he had his best season ever (or one of them).

Texas is actually almost as a big (in some years its worse) as coors field in home splits in favor of hitters, since the humidor got implemented.

Now oaklands offense was the worst in the AL, but the Rockies was about 15th in all of baseball, and Oakland was in the 20s. With adding holliday, a full season of Thomas (is he still there), some improvement from Buck, maybe the acquisition of some other decent free agents, could push this offense toward the middle of the AL. So it is not like the Rockies offense was producing a ridiculous amount of runs.

In the end I think your looking at a guy who is going to bat .300+ with a near .400 obp and a low 500 slg, and by the way he also stole 28 bases and only got caught twice last year thats a 93% rate, extremely valuable, even for a team that doesnt run that much, when he does run he makes it.

The bigger question is, who else needs to be brought in for this move to make some sense?

Im sure I'm repeating people but,

I don’t really like this trade. Holliday is a great player no doubt, but his stats may be Coors inflated. What gets me though is the years on his contract and I just don’t think that this will really make the A’s a World Series team next year.

I think Carlos will be something special and it is sad to see him go. I just think it is a lot to pay for a one year guy.

Possibility they just get him to trade at the all star break, which would be weird but it could get us a nice prospect or two.

JamesCaprio - November 10, 2008 reply

see the above

There's a difference between saying that

Holliday’s stats are inflated by Coors, and pointing to Holliday’s road stats.

Holliday’s stats ARE inflated by Coors. BUT, simply using road stats, and throwing out what happened in Coors isn’t a good idea either. Those games, against MLB pitchers, in MLB games happened in Coors. Unless Holliday was using a metal bat or something like that there’s no reason to throw them out.

So, it’s better to just use a stat that does park adjustment, such as OPS+ or EQA.

rfloh - November 11, 2008 reply

Fantasy Expert

A fantasy expert on Espn.com projected .321 30 hrs 115 rbi’s 10 stolen bases in the colliseum…take that as you will

He stole 28 bases last year, caught twice

He was one of the top 10 baserunners in baseball last season. Anyone who steals at that success rate will have a green light even on the A’s.

Rockies

Rockies attempted 70 more steals then the A’s last season…not saying I completely agree with the numbers but he will see a reduction from last year and it is proven fact the A’s dont run that much…Id love if they ran more

The A's were actually a smallball team last season

Not by much, but they attempted quite a few sacrifices and steals.

I don’t expect Holliday will be asked to bunt too often, but I see no reason why Geren would rein him in on the basepaths.

the rockies attempted 70 more last year and plus the A's hate giving up outs on the base paths

But Holliday doesn't (hardly) make outs on the base paths

The A’s don’t run much because typical success rates are actually bad for total runs scored. 26/28 is good for runs scored, so we should let him run.

I wont disagree they should let him run but they wont…I mean who besides rajai davis had the green light last year?

Who besides Rajai Davis had Holliday's baserunning skill?

Rajai Davis is a better baserunner/basestealer than Holliday

Make you a deal if he breaks 25 ill give you 25 you were rights

Besides?

hard to tell

I’d say that Sweeney and Gonzlez had some good baserunning skill…I just think its hard to tell when they dont do much on the basepaths as a team…Again Ill say it the Rockies attempted 70 more steals last season then the A’s did…That is a lot more action on the basepaths

The Rockies had Taveras...

Take him out of the picture and replace him with an average speed guy and the Rockies would have attempted probably ~20 more steals than the A’s. INSIGNIFICANT.

Likely wont break 20 with the A's

I’d love it if he did but I watch the A’s play and they sit around on the basepaths…Id love to see more sacrifices and steals…The opened it up a lil bit last year and I think that was out of necessity because the offense was so dang bad

I'd love to see more sacrifices as well

that’s why I am a big fan of ulama. I wish that would bring back the old rules though.

Future Ed - November 10, 2008 reply

well that and hes never broken 20 in any other season either

so to expect it in general is probably not realistic, but he has demonstrated the ability to steal a lot of bases without getting caught, so “money ball” wouldnt be against him running.

28/30, actually

Going by the rule of thumb that 1 CS cancels 3 SB, that’s +22 SB or about 6 offensive runs from steals.

Appropriate post-Apocalypse theme

Lew: I don't want to set the world on fire

I just want to start raising funds for a new park.

I like your thought

I didn’t like the deal at first, but after looking at all the talks here, I believe your right! The real gamble here is CarGon, Street and Smith is totally replaceable. Lets say Holiday didn’t help us contend in 09, we can always sell him before the deadline, and get some good kids back.
If! ONLY if !! CarGon turns into the next Beltran, we would be looking silly.
But after all these years we are finally looking at NOW!

danquadtwo - November 10, 2008 reply

exactly

and if these furcal hopes turn out to be true it would really be looking at now…

CarGon played like a rookie last year

Check that — he played like a rookie that most teams would never have considered bringing up so soon. Someone explain to me how he looked so bad … just seems like the prognosis went from “promising, potential All-Star” to “bust” almost overnight. He looked awfully good to me — raw, yes — but pretty darn good.

Dude, if his prognosis was "bust" there's no way he'd be getting traded for Matt Holliday

He still has a ton of potential, it’s just a question of whether he reaches it.

Thank you, PT

That’s why we’re all saying that he’s the biggest loss in this deal. No one is calling him a bust. Hell, he could still turn into Carlos Beltran but the plate discipline thing has always concerned me.

So, PT. You were vocally against trading for Holliday in earlier posts

Whaddya think of the deal? Just curious.

I'm not a big fan

I think the added probability of making the playoffs with this signing is not sufficient to justify giving up the talent package that they did. I think they could have obtained 90% of the production for 75% of the cost with someone like Dunn or Burrell.

That said, it’s not the end of the world.

with this trade*

don't you ever get sick of waiting

It’s like the warriors, it’s always next year. Probably a bad comparison given the recent success the A’s have had this decade but it’s nice to have a big time player on our team. I’m even pumped the A’s have a fantasy first rounder. Cargon was a small price to pay for the big league club. Buck, Holliday, and Sweeny will be just fine in the outfield and our entire lineup will be better with the presence of Holliday. Look at the dodgers with Manny.. I’m not saying we will be as good as the dodgers were but definitely better. So, after all my ramblings my only point is it’s nice to have an all-star on the squad

Spidz34 - November 10, 2008 reply

(drops cow from the rafters)

Dammit Jack Cust just landed on my house

I'd blame PaulThomas

and his lack of piloting skills, but apparently it’s a sensitive topic..

it’s nice to have an all-star on the squad

every team gets at least one of those. woo, i’m glad we gave up two valuable players so holliday can replace duke at the all star game!

You know

I kind of agree, in that objectively speaking I can’t say it’s a great trade. Seems like a so-so deal to make, at best.

But if you ignore that for a second….Matt Holliday is a pretty sweet ballplayer. And now he’s on the A’s. Fun change of pace, if nothing else. (And we keep Anderson and Cahill, to boot.)

walk off bunt - November 10, 2008 reply

One point I'm sure Beane would make

is that he got a very, very good hitter, still in his prime, without giving up any of our good pitching prospects, who are the real core of the team to come.

And the best player we gave in the deal plays the position with 10 players on the 40-man roster.

Nick - November 10, 2008 reply

+1 w.o.b.

No Anderson, Cahill, or Duke.

mrod - November 10, 2008 reply

That's pretty much what I think.

No, I hear ya

no one’s calling him a bust … I just thought he was much more valuable than two draft picks after next season — which is what it looks like we’ll get for him in the long run.

Plus a year of Holliday

You can’t completely ignore the value of adding a pretty good hitter for a year. While it might have very little value if the A’s don’t make any other moves, if this is the first step to a play-off run this year then you could make an argument that a year of Holliday is pretty valuable.

Right now I’m still not completely sold on this deal, but there is a chance Holliday help the team contend in 2009 even if he isn’t extended.

OkayJay81 - November 10, 2008 reply

holliday for a year +two draft picks… a year earlier!
but maybe beane knows the 2010 draft class is way better than 2011’s…

There was no way Street was sticking around long enough to net the A's draft picks

grover - November 11, 2008 reply

okay, but then the a’s would be trading him with the other team understanding that they could get 2 draft picks for him in 2011.
street’s value is still “2 years of a pretty good closer + 2 compensation picks”.

I don't remember what it's like to NOT be rebuilding

I don’t know what to expect next season

Is there any chance we'll flip Holliday?

I haven’t seen that possibility mentioned. Couldn’t we still trade him to one of the other teams who wanted him, and get a 3B or SS plus prospects or something?

Elvez - November 10, 2008 reply

Yeah

But I’m guessing if the A’s are going to flip him, it won’t be until the trading deadline and the A’s have failed to be competitive in the AL West in 2009 AND it appears like there is no chance to re-sign him to a long-term deal. I don’t see them flipping him immediately. It wouldn’t make much sense.

I doubt they would flip him but there is always a possibility

The Cards wanted him and my question is, can the A’s get a ton of value from the cards in that trade?
Beside Rasmus who else would we want that they would consider trading for Holliday?

Eastbayjim - November 10, 2008 reply

Wallace

I hadn't even thought about that...

If the A’s are contending next year at the deadline, they can keep him and make a run. If not. They could flip him to the Cards or somebody for a guy like Wallace. There’s no way I see them trading him soon, they could have just done a 3-way. Who knows… This trade is mind boggling as is

Jon Jay

Totally a Beane player. Not toolsy at all, but the man can put up the numbers.

Hard to be very toolsy when you're several centuries dead.

He probably can’t even stink for power anymore.

Yes

And Kotchman will be in the top 10 of them, once you count his defense.

if you guys are worried about cf

and are not sold on sweeney/cunningham/denorfia/davis etc

A’s have been trying to get crisp for 2-3 yrs now they have enough ammo for him…i’m guessing it wouldnt take much

Rosenthal says Nats are showing interest in cargon who could still be traded again

you better believe, beane will then inquire about his favorite lastings milledge if that happens

Crisp is pretty ass-tastic, I'd rather play Sweeney out there even if he was free...

I'd rather put Cust in CF

Ya what's Crisp got that Rajai hasn't got?

His own cereal

Erroneous! ERRONEOUS!

Crisp was born after the cereal was made.

Okay, sorry...let me try again.

A vagina?

Boobs

I like where this is headed.

He's a man, baby!

I really don't want Cereal boy.

Crisp is stale...

lasting?

he didnt leave a lasting impression last year with the Nats
i think BB is thinking less of him as a potential star now

There are a lot of guys who Beane WAS very interested in getting.

Youkilis, Nady, Giles, etc.

Doesn’t mean he still wants them now.

iglew - November 10, 2008 reply

I'd want Youkilis and Giles now. Nady not really with Holliday.

I love watching Youkilis play...

I don’t care what laundry he’s wearing…

How 'bout Jeremy Reed?

Sure the more the merrier

September 2008

I think Cunningham went way up in standing, and Cargon commensurately down.

CGonzales has that “Beltran” potential, but potential is only worth so much comparing one player to another.

Beltran has Beltran potential too, and I'm still waiting for him to reach it

Boy was he ever something in that NLCS with Houston.

DiegoSegui - November 10, 2008 reply

Beltran is a top 3 CF in baseball

How much higher does he have to reach?

But he's the highest paid, so he's needs to be Top 1

Meh

The two guys in front of him will be higher paid when they hit free agency.

He is top 1,

if only barely.

here: http://blogs.trb.com/sports/baseball/blog/2008/11/transaction_analysis_matt_holl.html

If they turn around and sign him long term, awesome!

I expect they will.

Everything we’ve heard about the A’s is that Wolff is willing to spend the money on the right players, and Holliday is certainly the right player. He’s the right player even if his numbers take a small dip by moving parks, but I think he’s a good enough hitter to minimize any potential drop. 35 to 30 homers? I’ll take it!

If they don’t re-sign him, then it was a crappy deal because 2009 is not the year when they should be going for broke, but again, I think Wolff and Beane et al. are in it to significantly change the team for the better by spending a little money and working with the system.

RenoTy - November 10, 2008 reply

I just read that Holliday probably wouldn't sign long term anywhere before FA.

Shoot. I don’t like it, if that’s the case.

RenoTy - November 10, 2008 reply

We'll see

Yes, in the links today they said that Holliday talked to Beane and Forst for awhile. He may be open for a long term deal with an up and coming team.

Eastbayjim - November 10, 2008 reply

If I'm Holliday

I’d take 6/120 now before my Oakland Coliseum numbers kick in (they’ll be great, but not as great).

His contract might be the big loser in this...or might not if he puts up big numbers anyway

He actually might make money if he’s shown to not be a Coors construction. OTOH if his numbers are superficially worse, we might be able to sign him. OTOOH if his numbers are worse he may hate hitting in Oakland. OK I’m out of hands now.

Boras S.O.P.

You got the acronym backwards

Forgive me for bringing up law school again

but am I the only one amused by the fact that Statute of Limitations and Scope of Liability both abbreviate as “SOL”?

My doctor once referred me for a bunch of tests

with a prescription that read “Nico…SOB.” Only after I decked him did the receptionist inform me that it stood for “short of breath”.

Nice cover... I'm surprised you fell for it.

You forgot the third one...

…Shit Outta Luck.

How do you sleep at night?

For the A's SOL is

struck out looking

LOL!!! I ain't arguin'.

RollOnYouBears667 - November 10, 2008 reply

Great Trade,

even though I don’t think that the acquisition of Holliday will put them in contention for the playoffs in 2009. The infield is mediocre defensively, Chavez will get hurt 10 games into the season and still get paid $11 million, and the pitching staff is too inexperienced. I don’t think there’s any way that Beane resigns him to a long-term deal because, frankly, the A’s don’t keep stars (not to mention it isn’t exactly most peoples dream to play in the Coliseum or, for that matter, the city of Oakland). They make stars and they give them away. But if the A’s are contending at the end of the season, the can keep him and let him walk during winter, and take their consolation draft pick, or whatever it’s called. If they aren’t contending in July, they can deal him for draft picks and/or some very talented prospects.

Mediocre defensively?

I’m wondering how you get that impression, because just about every defensive stat around suggests that the A’s have a very good defensive team.

RollOnYouBears667 - November 10, 2008 reply

I meant offensively. You’re right about the defensive side.

I'm just wondering, what is most people's dream?

Cause I can hardly remember mine from last night?

Buck Turgidson - November 10, 2008 reply

BB see an opening in the AL west

if the Angels are not able to agree to terms with Tex and CC and they are losing K-Rod.
BB sees that his team have a chance to reclaim the AL west and possibly go deeper into the Playoff and bring October baseball back to Oakland.

this could possibly mean more deals to get this offense swinging and contend for the WS

If this is true,

and the Angels lose more than they gain this offseason, then maybe I like this trade.

Otherwise, it’s trade chips inefficiently spent.

if the angels lose out on tex, cc, and k-fraud

they will just sign 1-2 other top free agents, or maybe make a trade like the a’s just did.
no way they just decide to not spend money.

Furcal and Giambi next

Im a Giambi lover

but I have trouble seeing how he would fit, now that he’d essentially be full time first base.

DH?

or he could replace jack cust at DH

Then where does Cust play?

RF?

And if Cust/Holliday are the corner OF, where do Buck/Cunningham play?

We can’t sign Giambi except as a 1B, and I don’t think he’d be a smart signing in that context.

this has been beat into the ground, but maybe you missed it.

He is not an improvement over Cust at DH.

Giambi OPS+
2007: 108
2008: 128

Cust
2007: 147
2008: 132

higher avg and not reliable fielder at first?

im having trouble figuring out who you are talking about

but when you say “higher avg” it makes me think that’s probably a good thing.

I saw an exchange between Geren and CarGon

During the last week of the season or something.. Somebody had nocked Gonzales in, and when he was headed down the steps Geren greeted him with a stiff “You see a green light on 3-?”

And Gonazales just rolled his eyes and marched past.

I wonder if the coaches were having a hard time communicating with him, and that made him a bit expendable..

tosk - November 10, 2008 reply

Good Point

Something I was wondering about myself. This is one of those negative “intangibles” that rarely get factored into analyses. If CarGon was a bad fit for the A’s, or someone who didn’t pay attention to coaches or managers, his value as a member of the team declined, and he needed to be traded.

PT’s analysis of the Angels a few weeks ago indicated they’re extremely catchable. If Beane & Forst come up with the same conclusions, then the addition of a quality hitter makes sense.

The A’s could compete in 2008 IF Chavez comes roaring back, Barton and Buck start realizing their potential as hitters, Eveland and Gallagher start realizing their potential as pitchers, and Cahill and/or Anderson make the same kind of jump to the majors as Zito and Hudson did in their day. Lots of ifs here, but not impossible.

richwol1 - November 10, 2008 reply

They'll for sure need to add more than Holliday.

Say, Furcal and Dunn?

Deal Crosby to the Tigers for whatever the hell they’ll give up, sign Furcal to a 2/30 with a 3rd option year if necessary, and give Dunn a 4/60 deal to play 1B

Send Barton down to play 3B, then bring him up once Chavez falls apart.

SS Furcal
CF Sweeney
DH Cust
LF Holliday
1B Dunn
3B Chavez
2B Ellis
RF Buck/Cunningham

Would be nice

But I doubt we can sign both of them. As sad as it is for me to say, my shameless flogging of the Adam Dunn to the A’s fan club might now be over.

Derek Lowe would be a better sign than Dunn in this scenario

Furcal best of all though, so we might as well focus all our hoping on that until it happens.

KEEP YOUR BOSTON FILTH OUTTA HERE, DAMMIT

Unless, of course, he’s willing to sign a cheap contract. I wouldn’t mind Lowe in the rotation at all.

He DOES have that awful Red Sox stigma with him, though.

i take offense

Does that mean you're offended or that you want to improve the offense?

Also, I'm an idiot and realized that I forgot to include Suzuki at Catcher.

I agree

But I assume you mean 2009, right? Cause they really didn’t compete well in 08 ;-)

Good point

I also see Clinton beating Giuliani in the 2008 presidential election.

richwol1 - November 10, 2008 reply

LOL

CGV!!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GJFHvCo6RtI

about 40 seconds into this

is how i feel about the trade

alea iacta est - November 10, 2008 reply

I think you guys should trade for Beltre.

lailaihei - November 10, 2008 reply

Please try not to get me too excited, I'm in public

SkipT - November 11, 2008 reply

Who thinks CarGon will turn into the next Carlos Pena

in which the A’s gave up on him too early

streetisclosedin08 - November 10, 2008 reply

If it takes CarGo 7 years to reach his potential like it did Pena, this is a FANTASTIC trade.

True

Pena would have been a free agent already by the time he broke out.

Whether he was a minor league FA or a major league FA is fairly irrelevant.

It took Pena falling to the bottom of the barrel

with Tampa Bay before he righted himself. It wasn’t until this year that the team was good. When Pena wound up playing first for them, that was basically his last chance. Had he stayed with the A’s even for the 7/8 years it took him, I seriously doubt he’d be as good as he is now.

DMOAS - November 10, 2008 reply

I seem to say this very often, so I'll just say it again

Pena was signed to a MINOR LEAGUE contract after the 2006 season. The A’s could have had him if they wanted him. Any team could have.

Yep

And every team has given up on someone that became good – especially the Rays (Josh Hamilton).

I'm so confused!

Why are we getting the big-name player instead of losing him? Why is Carlos, the much-heralded five-tool player that Fosse loved to say we’d be watching play in an A’s uniform for years to come, now going to the Rockies? Just when I think I have Billy figured out, he goes and does this.

As for Huston… I still love and will always love Huston. I wish he would’ve been given back his closer’s job last year, especially since he was pitching well again, and I would’ve loved for him to still be on the team in ‘09 because he is still awesome. But the good part about all the “Huston to [insert team here]” rumors is that this trade is not a complete shock to my system (see: Hudson, Mulder, Haren, Swisher). I will miss him, but this isn’t as painful as past trades (it helps that we’re getting a very good player)… oh, :P, I’m sad for you that you’re going to the Rockies (if that is where you end up), but you will always have a spot in my A’s heart. Farewell, Utter Hotness.

Also: does this mean we don’t get to call anyone “Greggles” anymore?

whiteshoes40 - November 10, 2008 reply

4 things this means

1. Chavez back is better and they expect him to be back next year
2. Holiday will be traded for another player
3. Carlos has to many holes in his swing
4. Beane is drunk

Arcman - November 10, 2008 reply

1. i hope
2. i doubt it
3. yes
4. it’s possible

still bills kingdom - November 10, 2008 reply

Arcman, your point about Chavez

totally jumped out at me as something I really hadn’t thought of yet.

I think you’ve got a great and interesting point there- for the A’s to be adding somebody like Holliday now (unless they’re just scheming to trade him at the deadline or seriously think they can re-sign him) for 2009 probably means they’re convinced (not hopeful, but convinced) Chavez will be back and ready to play 3B again.

Now that would be a reason to start getting more optimistic about 2009- Holliday AND a healthy Chavez at the hot corner…

What about all the other outfielders?

Just now heard about the Holliday thing and I think it’s good – but it still doesn’t solve the problem of too many outfielders: Sweeney, Buck, Davis, Cunningham, Denorfia, and now Holliday. So I imagine another one will go in another trade. Just don’t let it be Sweeney!

sacto - November 10, 2008 reply

Denorfia and Davis don't count, they're basically free agents or useless

streetisclosedin08 - November 10, 2008 reply

I wouldn't call Davis useless.

He’s insanely fast and he’s fantastic defensively in CF.

He’s a really good 24th/25th guy on a roster. Defensive sub, pinch runner, etc.

I like Davis too

just because he is so freakin fast.

micdog2001 - November 10, 2008 reply

I wouldn't call Denorfia useless

but I’m hardly objective on this subject.

PMR has Davis as the BEST defensive CF in baseball

That is very, very valuable, even though some of Pinto’s numbers this year are a bit quirky looking.

thejd44 - November 11, 2008 reply

I wonder what Beane's plans are for him.

funny

rockies may not even keep cargon/street

i’m okay with the deal, but beane call them back and get a 3b/SS in a separate deal

I knew I should have worn my A's cap instead of my Sharks cap today.

LoneStranger - November 10, 2008 reply

Lesson Learned

ALWAYS WEAR YOUR A’S HAT!!!!!

yawedout21 - November 11, 2008 reply

Haren + Street for Holliday, Anderson, Eveland, Carter, and Cunningham.

Smith + CarGon are basically 2 of the 6 guys we got for Haren. We still have Eveland who is equal and slightly better than Smith, Anderson, Carter, and Cunningham who may turn out to be a decent player. So the trade basically worked out to be Haren + Street for Holliday, Anderson, Eveland, Carter, and Cunningham.

Would you make that trade? I would in a heart beat.

I also think the A's will try to resign Holliday

Interesting perspective

But I agree with you.

muffinpryde - November 10, 2008 reply

sorry, but that makes no sense

because the a’s already traded haren for cargon, smith, anderson, eveland, carter, cunningham.
two separate events.
if the a’s traded eveland for brian bocock tomorrow, that wouldn’t be acceptable just because the overall haren trade was still a positive.

You'd think mlb.com would have tons of pictures to choose from

and yet they go with these. Although they do kind of fit: Holliday is trying to rip that Rockies uniform off (because he wants to come to the A’s) and Huston is angry, like he was much of ’08…

whiteshoes40 - November 10, 2008 reply

I like Huston in the 1968 uniform. It's like he's Billy Martin or something,

even though Billy wasn’t on the 1968 A’s.

Another way to look at the FA resignability issue for Holliday

If we doubt that Holliday will be with the A’s in 2010, we can think about if we see Smith/Street/Cargon being with the A’s in 2010. Smith I think is unlikely, we have too much talent coming up in 2009-2010. Street may even be bumped, or at least traded in some minor deal, we won’t get much for him. CarGon has a good chance to be part of A’s long term plan. But equally we have a good chance to be competitive in2009 with Holliday. if we are not competitive and don’t look good resigning him, then we trade him in for someone we can use in the long term, maybe another CarGon level prospect, maybe 1-2 year behind CarGon in terms of development. In that case I don’t we really haven’t lost anything significant at all.

Exciting trade

Good post, Blez and always interesting comments from AN. I’m still a bit shocked that something like this happened and happened early.
Can’t help but think of those last games in Oakland when the crowd boo’ed Street. Somebody, Skigurl?, was saying those might be the last times we saw him in Oakland in an A’s uni.
Glad it is across league trade.
I like Gonzalez a lot, but I can start liking Holliday very easily.
Go A’s!

LongTimeFan - November 10, 2008 reply

RE: signing Holliday

After the 2001 season, the A’s offered Giambi a 6/$91M contract [~$15.2 per season]. He was also already a liability at 1B, a poor base-runner, and he was going to be 31 on opening day. If Giambi accepted, it would have been structured in such a way that the A’s would have likely been paying him around a quarter of the payroll by the end of the deal.

Holliday is two years younger than Giambi, healthier, and a plus defender [and almost the opposite of guys like Cust, Dunn, or Burrell, for that matter]. Oh, and he was 28-for-30 in steal attempts last year. I don’t understand why this gets overlooked. I know the A’s aren’t the runningest of teams, but that at least shows he’s a smart baserunner, and points to him being a smart player overall.

So, if the A’s were serious about keeping Giambi until he was 36, I don’t see why Holliday couldn’t be worked into the payroll.

streetisclosedin08 - November 10, 2008 reply

times have changed, Holliday would laugh at 6/$91M

my guess is it would take 7/$130 to keep him around

if he can make the A's competitive in 09

then I think he’ll be worth every penny. If his number falls off drastically due to ball park adjustment, we basically took a bad gamble. But still we didn’t risk any of our core guys who are going to be around for long after 2010, except for maybe CarGon.

I like the fact that the A’s took this risk and trying to make the team fun to watch, and not just sitting on our pile of prospects, twiddling their thumbs, and keep repeating “just wait till 2010”

WhoNeedsReligionWhenYaGotBaseball - November 10, 2008 reply

I can understand your point of view asfaisince1989, however, I want more than fun to watch. To me, if the A’s do not sign Holliday to a contract extension, then I will be quite upset. Imagine having a Holliday in his prime, two to three years from now when Cahill, Anderson, Gio Gonzalez, Mazzaro, and _ are pitching. I salivate at the future if we can sign Holliday to a big contract without crippling our ability to pay all the other studs who are due.

True, don't want to break the bank

we still want to be able to pay all the other young guys when they get good.

My point is that, even if we didn’t trade for Holliday, the list of young studs that you see being the core of the team in 2010-2011, they don’t include Street, Smith, and maybe or maybe not CarGon.

in that sense, what have we lost that is so significant for the long term? not much. Our MLB team will look roughly the same in 2010-2011 if we traded Holliday but can’t resign him, or if we didn’t trade for him.

In the mean time we get a much more competitive team in 09, and get 1st crack at signing Holliday for the long term.

I don't want to pay all the other young guys when they get good.

Who’s that good anyway? Cahill and Anderson are pitchers. 6.5 years of them is plenty. If they turn into Maddux and Glavine we’ll find the money for them. Who else is so good that you want to pay him, and will be expensive within seven years? Carter is 2+ years away.

I didn't mean that 6/$91 would get it done

just that Beane has shown a willingness to allocate 25% of the payroll to one player. If the A’s are saying they can go up to $80M in payroll next year, they could afford to sign Holliday.

And in a way, they can't afford not to -

in that they can’t expect to compete seriously, for years, without paying a lot for a great player instead of paying some for a good player.

Scott?

they can't rely on just outsmarting everyone year in and year out

considering the rise in Anaheim’s payroll over the last six years or so, the A’s have to be a little more competitive financially.

Who have we outsmarted the last two years?

I know the answer to this one.

It's funny because it's true.

Looks like Holliday already likes wearing white shoes.

From the USA today article.

Athletix Man - November 10, 2008 reply

And slapping 5's with Gallego

So he’ll feel right at home with the A’s?

WiscoFan - November 10, 2008 reply

So that's why we hired Gallego.

The angle everyone missed.

It adds weight to the Giambi rumours though...

Suspicious weight...

I read somewhere today

that Greggles said something about being excited to wear black cleats again and getting to hit. I can understand him wanting to be in the NL so he can show off his mad hitting skillz, but really, Greg, why must you hate on the white shoes?

whiteshoes40 - November 10, 2008 reply

I hope the Rockies switch to white shoes just to annoy him

I really hope his elbow injury is career ending!

What, too much? :-P Yeah, maybe, but the white shoes rock!

yes, his anti-white shoes comment was very irksome

batgirl - November 11, 2008 reply

Big contract

For a group of fans that bristles at Eric Chavez’s 6-year/$66 million deal (maybe that doesn’t describe everyone here, but there are plenty that it does), a lot of people seem to want to give Holliday a quarter of the payroll to play well past his prime. Another $20 million wrapped up in one player may be workable for now, but what about down the road? More money gets wrapped up as players become arby eligible, free agent signings become less feasible… I’unno. I’m not saying it can’t be done, but I question the wisdom behind it.

Which brings me to my next worry, which is that, assuming the A’s aren’t looking to go long-term with Holliday, this deal makes even less sense to me. It’s not as if the minor league system is packed to the brim with potential perennial All-Star position players. I can understand some of the nonchalant attitude about letting Smith go, what with the talent depth, but Gonzalez is a horse of a different color.

So they let go of a potential centerpiece for 1 year of the assured quality of what is admittedly one of the better RH bats in the game. Maybe he’ll sell more tickets, maybe the A’s will have more than just a prayer of making the postseason. Still… the former is something that is pretty low on my personal priority list, and the latter is something we were promised in perpetuity after we had to watch Haren and Swish go.

Oh, well. 2009 is certainly more interesting now.

I agree

Trade is straight IGNANT if A’s retain Holliday and don’t go to the playoffs?

But Honestly….What are the odds of that happening? I’d say not bloody likely. We will either a) make the playoffs b) trade him or c) sign him

i see the 20 mil workable now, as well as down the road since we will have a new stadium

theoretically

Cheezombie - November 11, 2008 reply

But will Matt Holliday make up for the anagram roster's loss of "Utter Hotness"?

Hot Tidy Llama…
Had Alloy Mitt… (ooooh! GG!)
Madly Hail Tot…
Madly Hit Alto…
Lady Total Him… (you complete me?)
Hi. Totally Mad. (quoting ilovegregsmith?)
Loyal Matt Hid (…so Greedy Scott couldn’t find him and make him take too much money to stay in Oakland past 2009)

Poppy - November 10, 2008 reply

No, no, no. You missed the obvious.

Madly Hot Tail.

lulz

drmmerchk - November 11, 2008 reply

he's a sekrit sporkman

I do math tally

(Or, repunctuated, he was the Nate Silver of Prop 8.)

MoneyManWilliam - November 10, 2008 reply

LOL

also, don’t tell Nico there’s a hot llama on the roster

batgirl - November 11, 2008 reply

2010

I always thought we were looking to compete in 2010, 11, etc…if that is true, then I ask you: With this trade, are we better off in 2010 than we are before the trade?

I have to say that we aren’t…unless Beane looks to trade Holliday this July for excellent talent..

I would ask the opposite

Are we worse off in 2010 for having traded for Holliday? I don’t see Street/Smith being a significant part of the team. So it comes down to whether you think there is a better chance of CarGon developing into a great player by 2010, or we have a better chance of either resigning Holliday or trading him for someone good. If this is poker, I like the second scenario, it gives me two outs. Betting on CarGon has only one good outcome, but with Holliday in hand, we have many options.

That's like saying a hand with an inside straight draw and a full house draw

is better than a flush draw.

It’s not… the first has 2 scenarios and the second, 1, but the first has 6 outs and the second 9.

What's a full flush,

and does it beat a three pair? I find blackjack really confusing. :-(

-Cindi

I think three pair beats it in seven card Brag

but it’s been a while since I read Hoyle’s Rules of Games closely…

Doesn't three pair beat a higher two pair in Canadian Casinos?

Or is that just an NHL power play rule?

dammit... I knew I shouldn't be folding all those...

flush draws!

asfansince1989 - November 11, 2008 reply

Are you saying the odds of CarGon getting good is the same as a flush draw?

I’d put CarGon’s odds at becoming a good player in the next 1-2 years at 50% maximum.

There are 3 outcomes with Holliday trade that i can see:
1) A’s try to resign him. I’d give A’s a 5% chance of resigning Holliday
2) A’s trade him mid-season for a CarGon caliber prospect, maybe slightly younger than CarGon. The chance of this happening I would say is way over 50%
3) A’s get in the playoff mix, hold on to Holliday, then lose him and get 2 draft picks, I’d say the chance of this happening is maybe around ~30%.

In the most likely scenario (2), where we trade Holliday mid-season for a prospect, I’d say we are only giving up 1-2 years of development time in a young OF, instead of having a CarGon being ready for 2010-2011, we will have him ready for 2011-2013.

In the next likely scenario (3), where we get a shot at playoff, but lose Holliday and just get draft picks, I’d be Ok with losing the potential of CarGon getting good for a play off run.

And last but not least, I’d be perfectly fine with resigning Holliday.

If we extend Holliday (and we should) then absolutely

FormerHuntsvilleStar - November 10, 2008 reply

Beane vs. Boras

Two men. One cage. Two thick binders of stats.

FIGHT!

I'll say it again--for the A's, this trade makes 0 sense.

This is the kind of trade the Angels should be making. A team that is one bat away from winning a pennant. The A’s just acquired a one year rental for a year in which they will be very lucky (though not if you listen to PT) to compete in their own division.

Pucking Insane - November 10, 2008 reply

july trade deadline...

3 months of…

CC- got laporta + 3 other prospects
Manny- Bay
Yeixiera – kotchman

unless holliday get injured or ompletely fails…Beane will get something good

of course you keep holliday, lure a couple FA’s, do some trades and you can contend also in 09

street//smith- who cares
cargon – they seem to like sweeney/cunningham just as much at the same age

Kotchman isn't that good. It was Manny plus $7M plus Moss and Hansen for Bay

Don't diss Casey Kotchman

Mark my words, he’s a true-talent top 10 1B by the end of the decade.

The reason I like Sean Doolittle so much is that he reminds me of Casey Kotchman.

Yep

Aren't there about 25 arguable candidates for Top 10 1B?

Yeah, but Kotchman's already in the top 15, assuming last year in the NL was an abberation

His glove is excellent, which makes up for his bat being a tick below average for a 1B.

I guess. He isn't exciting enough to salivate over as a comp for deadline booty.

If you can secure cheap average players for years, you can throw way more money at superstars

It’s not Kotchman that you should want, but the roster flexibility without any real sacrifice in wins having such players gives you.

Defense= not exciting

Like moose turd pie, it’s “good though.”

And it makes your pitchers look better.

See, eg, Joe Blanton

I'm definitely getting my moose turd pies

from the wrong bakeries.

Nabolom's??

usually, all their stuff is great…

except for folkie cognoscenti

Utah Phillips and “Moose Turd Pie” are trapped in an eternal cultural embrace. only thing I ever think of when I hear “Utah Phillips”.

You don't own "The Moscow Hold," do you...

One won lost won - November 11, 2008 reply

no sir I do not

at least, not within memory. I pretty much stopped listing to NPR in the 1980s, as well as dropping “Prarie Home Companion” at that time.

Bad comparison

Manny’s contract is over $7M more than Holliday’s if I’m not mistaken and he HAD BEEN much worse than Holliday. Even if you believe in his aura of holiness his defense sucks and Holliday’s is awesome.

FormerHuntsvilleStar - November 10, 2008 reply

Kind of cautious happiness

First, it’s nice to see the A’s add a pretty good hitter in Matt Holliday to the lineup. What does concern me is that there’s a decent chance it’s for one-half to one year, unless the A’s do pull off an extension. So I’m not fully sure what to make of it yet.

I think this trade might best be evaluated in the context of the transactions yet to come this offseason. I just wish I knew what they were…

Kinda neat seeing Oakland putting a jump start into the hot stove, though!

I love this trade...

only if we get an extended contract for Holiday. I don’t want to get rid of CarGon for a one year rental. Even more pathetic would would be to trade Holiday mid-season for 2 or 3 unproven minor league prospects with mediocre upsides (which seems to be the the favored stance much of the time here at AN).

Now let’s go get 2 solid starting pitchers, Adrian Beltre, and Mark Texiara and win the damn world series already.

jdub69 - November 10, 2008 reply

I love it too. And I'm on board with getting more guys! A's -- 2009 World Series Champs!

dont like it

this trade doesnt seem to make sense in terms of the teams current direction. losing street and smith is no prob, but gonzalez? none of the young pitching is ready to back up the o that holiday will bring anyway.

the only thing that keeps me from thinking this is a disaster, is the fact that it probably fits perfectly into beane’s master plan. now i just pray he doesnt pay attention to this board (no big risk) and try to pick up some injury prone waste of cash like furcal.

exebache - November 10, 2008 reply

Bah! I didn't like the direction. Let's win now that we've got Kendall, Kotsay and Loaiza off the books

we can spend the money on something good for a change.

catfish hunter - November 10, 2008 reply

I really, really

think people should not count the A’s out on resigning Holliday. This deal obviously was well under way last week when we started hearing the rumors from the GM meetings. For people who don’t remember, or maybe never knew Holliday showed up at the meetings and sparked all kinds of talk. How do we know that things weren’t bein talked about at that point between Boras, Holliday, the A’s and Rockies?? The A’s have a large chunk to spend, and I can see Beane trying to field a very good team in 09’ in a great organization with a great reputation as being one of the best clubhouses in baseball. Holliday might be interested in sticking with a team that has a very good chance of being a top team starting next year. Regardless of what people say, Holliday has the final say, not Boras. I think the A’s can definitely make an offer to Holliday that won’t cripple them financially, and will be well enough for him to stick around. Let’s just sit back and see what happens because things are getting interesting to say the least.

JPShark - November 10, 2008 reply

love it

hot damn!
I’m really excited about this trade – I love it when we make a big splash, and I think this will go down as a BIG splash (in a good way). I will miss Carlos (I think he’ll be a good ballplayer for the Rockies), loved Smith (though I got tired of the nibbling) and Huston as well(I think he’ll do real well for the Rockies too), but Holliday is the real deal, and we’ve not had someone like him on this team for awhile!

Coors field inflation be damned – I think he’ll have an awesome year with the A’s, and I’m really looking forward to it! Can’t wait to get those Sox / A’s tickets and watch all the games (and for that matter, Spring Training is going to be a blast!) I will be a bit bummed if the Rockies now turn around and deal Huston for even more pieces; that would make me think we could’ve also included someone else as a bullpen / closer, and done the same with Huston, but, in the end, I’m really glad / excited to see Holliday, and would like to see him signed to an extension for the new ballpark!

Someone mentioned Milledge, and I’d still like to see Billy try to get Lastings at a discount. I’m also glad to see that we didn’t really kill our pitching strength, which I think will show itself sooner rather than later. Hot damn Holliday! Bring it!

Buck for Lastings?

catfish hunter - November 10, 2008 reply

I would do that

They would probably want at least five Bucks

Can I have $10?

No, but you can have a Buck

Oh deer.

I meant Michael Redd

I've been in "upset" mode all week with sports

and am at present watching the “lousy” 49ers dominating the “great” Cardinals in Monday Night Football. Lots of fun while it lasts…and I think the players are scared to death of Mike Singletary — which is a good thing!

Methinks you spoke too soon

I'm so glad that I'm not a big football fan anymore

Between the pathetic play calling and the downright AWFUL officiating, I’d have been pretty pissed off had I been actively rooting for the Niners to win.

Which was the worst call of the week?

The no PI on Bruce in the end zone, or the Unsportsmanlike on Clements?

Not to mention they jobbed the Cardinals a couple times too. Thank god MLB has professional umpires rather than part timers.

I'm voting for option C:

The noncall on the ~~use both hands to rip off Robinson’s helmet by the mask~~ blatant facemask on the last play of the game.

As crappy as everything else was, there should have been a dead ball penalty on that play and the ball on the 1 foot line with no time left.

50 lashes

For jinxing my poor Niners.

Wait and see on Beane

For some reason I believe that Holiday will be flipped very soon. If the braves are realy shopping Escobar and Kelly Johnson then its time to do a flip. Or is the brewers willing to do a Fielder/Hardy trade for Holiday/Crosby/eveland that would be a sweet deal.

Arcman - November 10, 2008 reply

sober up

Why?

because then

you post things like fielder and hardy for holliday, crosby and eveland, which would never happen. and the braves are looking for escobar + to bring back peavy, not holliday.

The Braves are shopping one of Escobar or Johnson

They’re willing to trade one of them, not both.

rfloh - November 11, 2008 reply

Just screamed at Monday Night Football

Went like this:
Matt Holliday is traded…(meh, guess those A’s rumours are over)

…to the Athletics (Ahhhh!)

I had to hear about it through football :(

the comment on MNF was

“A’s are buyers instead of sellers”

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2008/11/10/657328/valuing-the-free-agent-sta

Sign Lowe Now?

Sure, we signed Foulke, why now Lowe?

Because unlike Foulke, Lowe is VERY good.

Typo, I meant why not Lowe

YES

Buy Lowe, sell high?

We still have Haren?

http://www.denverpost.com/rockies/ci_10899898

Holiday and money

I don’t know if this was already mentioned (though I’ve pretty much read through the entire series of threads, it could be that I missed something…) but Holliday doesn’t care as much about the money as he does about the post-season:

http://mvn.com/thepitch/2008/11/mlb-09-off-season-starter-can-la-afford-to-lose-manny-the-obama-effect-on-free-contracts-big-name-pi.html
(about 1/3 of the way through the audio)

and this article from the Denver Post, with this tasty tidbit:
“I specifically don’t want to spend my career collecting paychecks and having October off. I want to be in a situation where I feel like I can make the postseason every year, not only if the perfect storm comes together,” Holliday said.
“I am not saying Colorado can’t do that. But approaching free agency and making decisions about being somewhere long term, you have to consider more than money. The money gets to the point, it’s a lot either way.”

Ladies and gentlemen – I believe we’re going to be watching Holliday and our A’s for an extended period of time (and I believe, in October’s for years!)

catfish hunter - November 10, 2008 reply

Remember when Mike Hampton signed with the Rockes for $18M/year because of the schools in the Denver area?

Holliday's going to love the Oakland schools.

salb918 - November 10, 2008 reply

You don't go to school on a holiday

Man, you're like the school on a holiday...

no class.

5Aces - November 11, 2008 reply

Correction-- Holliday's going to love the Piedmont schools

I love gerrymandering.

I like gerrymandering,

but his wife, Jessica Mandering? B. I. T. C. H.

Don't all the A's live in Danville/Blackhawk?

uhh

If hes saying he wants to sign somewhere where they make the postseason every year, why the hell would you take that as he has a good chance to sign in Oakland? We have not made the postseason in years, and aren’t projecting to in the immediate future. That quote most likely points to Boston/NY siging him… unfortunately. But I agree that the A’s will try to sign him maybe. We need a franchise player, a cornerstone, and we are not really contending this year. Billy wouldn’t give away prospects for a one year rental if we’re not gonna be contending the year hes here would he? Honestly I just think bill is smarter than that

yo - November 10, 2008 reply

We (or "The A's" as some people prefer) made the playoffs 2 years ago, not that long ago.

but yeah I wouldn’t think a player looking to be in the playoffs every year would think of Oakland right away. heres hoping that will change.

micdog2001 - November 10, 2008 reply

why does that tasty tidbit mean holliday will be with the a's for an extended period of time?

the a’s last made the playoffs three years ago, whereas the rockies were in the playoffs last year and went to the world series.

Just got home, logged on, saw the news, and well...hmm...wow

Did not see it coming with Carlos Gonzalez. If the A’s can keep Holliday long term, then it’s a great deal, but if not I just don’t see it. So I’m hoping the A’s know they have an inside track to extended negotiations, even though you wouldn’t think it was a possibility.

I was in the camp who felt Gonzalez could turn out to be special – heck, even playing poorly this year he was already a plus defensive CFer with 25HR potential. So if we’re not going to see him in Oakland in 2010, I want to see Holliday.

I just cant believe Beane would make this trade

if he couldnt sign Holliday.

Syphon - November 10, 2008 reply

I dunno, I'm not convinced he can, and I'm trying to reason out why that's ok

I can see us trading him mid-season if we arent doing well, and we’d probably get a decent prospect or two.
Otherwise, 2 picks.

… other than that, I have nothing. except that Beane and co. possibly have a much lower opinion of Cargon than I do.

or grover's suggestion below

that the A’s are going to make another big move, and there’s going to be a serious push this year

That push might require a SS AND a pitcher

Oakland’s rotation in 2009 doesn’t look that stellar, with Duke dependable only for 25 starts, Gallagher still young/rough, Braden, Gio, Eveland? Add Furcal and Derek Lowe and you might be in business.

As is, the bullpen depth just took a shot and the rotation doesn’t figure to be special until 2010. It’s not like the A’s lineup, even with Holliday and Furcal, would be good enough to support an “ok” rotation. Especially with all the uncertainty surrounding Chavez and the lack of repalcements if/when he can’t play 3B.

completely agree

in all the analysis we’ve done on our poor hitting, I sometimes forget that our good pitching is still about youth and potential. our rotation next year is not that of a team that contends in the playoffs

furcal - lowe

i could understand this trade if that happened, but i’m still not convinced that’s the best way for a small market team to be spending its money.

Ah the small market myth lives....

let me clarify...

“a team willing to spend between $40-80 million on payroll.”
a small payroll team, relative to the other 29 mlb teams.

of course, if they sold out every game like the red sox, or had the tv audience of the cubs, maybe they would be willing to spend more money. but they’re not a small market team, that’s a myth. they’re just a team almost no one actually watches on a regular basis.

Good for 16th overall (last year).

A $80 million payroll would put a team in just about the middle of the pack.

methodrampage - November 11, 2008 reply

methodrampage - November 11, 2008 reply

$40 to 80 million

a hypothetical $80 million would have put the a’s 16th last year, but the reality payroll of $47 million put the a’s 28th last year.
after trading blanton and harden, they must have challenged the rays for 29th.

Holliday alone doesn't make the 2009 A's a contender

so if they intend to go for it in 2009 this is only the first of several moves

Since guys like Furcal and guys like Lowe both cost money,

and the A’s do have a budget even with all the payroll flexibility, it might make sense to put FA dollars into a pitcher (Lowe) and trade for a guy like Wiggington to further bolster the offense.

The idea of Lowe is looking better and better to me, to allow first Gallagher, then Gio, then Cahill/Anderson, to slot into the middle of the rotation rather than having to push towards the top end in the next couple years.

Florida just traded Olsen and Willingham to the Nats for Bonifacio, Dean and Smolinsky

Think they’d trade Uggla to us for 1B and backup 2B/3B/LF/RF? Our minor league system is deep. Really deep.

SRSLY?

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/8779806/Sources:-Nats-trade-for-Marlins%27-Olsen,-Willingham

If you believe Rosenthal

Olsen is terrible.

As a person sure, but he's not a terrible pitching prospect

What did he do again?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Olsen

Wikipedia has a summary

Nothing that big, ehh.

The A’s would NEVER want a guy like that.

Wow, a pitcher who's an asshole and got a DUI?

He's literally the spawn of Satan.

He runs around as two twin girls, corrupting our children with straight-to-VHS movies

Here in California, we're ok with that

It’s the gay-to-VHS movies we need to protect our children from being taught about in schools.

No he really is terrible

He’s been among the worst pitchers in baseball the past two years, and while you can cite the fact that he’s developing in his favour, he apparently has all the coachability of a dessicated mongoose – and worse, he’s losing speed on his fastball.

2006: 90.7 mph
2007: 90.1 mph
2008: 87.8 mph

Oh yeah, I agree.

If only his vehicle MPH worked that way

Or his blood alcohol level.

Yeah, but

he’s still only 25 in 2009, and he was decent in 2006.

Pick your poison

Adding Holliday kicks the payroll up to around $48 million. You’re walking a fine line to add both Furcal and Lowe on top of that, plus both players are risks beyond 1-2 yearss. Furcal’s back & Lowe’s age must be factored in here.

I'm thinking either/or, just speculating

that signing the pitcher and dealing for another bat might be more feasible than trying to sign a bat (expensive, $$-wise) and then deal for a pitcher (expensive, talent-wise).

Dealing for a bat

SD picked up Brian Giles $9 million option with the obvious intent to trade him. A’s inquired last year, the two sides talked a bit but couldn’t work anything out.

another corner OF?

1st name to pop into my head

Sorry.

I wouldn't mind Corey Hart

Brian Giles >>>>> Corey Hart

I mixed my Brewers up.

I meant JJ Hardy. I was thinking shortstop.

mikev - November 11, 2008 reply

My first reaction?

This deal doesn’t make sense unless the A’s sign Rafeal Furcal.

Which means Furcal is going to get his 4 year deal, because even with Holliday in the fold Oakland is going to have to pay top dollar for Furcal. I’m hoping it’ll be a 3+1 but I’m not holding my breath.

2 years of Street is worth 1 year of Holliday.

2 years of Street + Nibbles is worth it for Holliday.

CarGon is going to Boom-or-Bust, if he Booms then the trade wasn’t worth it.

Not only does CarGon have a high ceiling,

and you need some of those in the mix, but he’s also the only one who plays a true CF. So I guess I wish it had been Sweeney or Buck instead – but maybe Sweeney and Buck are simply going to be better players than Gonzalez will. I guess Billy is paid the big bucks to figure this stuff out before it’s knowable.

Or maybe the Rockies really like Carlos and don't like Sweeney and Buck as much

My question is why do they want Smith, of all choices?

A fly ball pitcher in Coors – wonder how that will go.

was Smith the throw-in?

or was Street? Beane probably said “no” to Gallagher or Eveland, so they settled on Smith. If Street was the throw-in, it just shows you that Beane’s opinion of him is much less than PT’s.

I don't think any of the players were "throw-ins".

one of 'em was...

Beane didn’t start at the top of the negotiation ladder.

Yeah, but it doesn't mean it was a "throw-in" as much as "We have to get the deal done"

A throw in is a filler piece. Think Connor Robertson in the Haren deal.

The story from earlier today (accuracy unknown) was that we started at Street + Cargon

So Smith was the throw in.

smith was the throw-in

don't like the trade at all for one reason

holliday will be a FA at the end of the season. not that i think it was an unfair trade in terms of talent. however, there is no way in hell holliday resigns in oakland. and, unless we gut our just-rebuilt system in trades to land us a few more players (or spend some serious dough in FA), i can’t see us competing in 2009. unless beane thinks he can flip holliday around for a nice haul in july if we’re not in first place…but would we really get a huge haul for a guy who’s going to be a FA at seasons end? i dunno…

guy incognito - November 10, 2008 reply

We might get a bigger haul for Holliday than for Street, Smith and Carlos. I think the gamble is

that plus the value of getting Holliday in the first place. I think we want to look competitive in negotiations with CSN and Fremont

For what it's worth

Cunningham Buck and Barton all had better stats at similar ages in the minors than Carlos Gonzalez. Carlos had the scouts love.

niallmack - November 10, 2008 reply

Plus the awesome defense at a premium position

I really think we can resign Holliday.

1. Right now, the A’s have UNDER 30MM committed for 2009. This is including Eric Chavez. With Cust’s arbitration raise, it should still be in the 30MM range (remember, Cust is undervalued by too many people.

2. Chavez comes off the books just as most of the current crop of young players hit arbitration (2011) assuming his option is declined. Net gain b/w Chavez and Holliday is 10MM per year.

3. The most Holliday will need in terms of years is probably 6-7. 6/120 is pretty feasible for the A’s and not franchise crippling, as long as the team is run efficiently. If you run your team efficiently, you can pay superstars big money and still stay on a budget. And, as I said before, Chavez will be off the books before the young players start getting expensive. BB just has to budget accordingly for the youth hitting arbi.

I would just prefer to bet the franchise on someone who has been awesome outside of Coors Field

Holliday's away numbers have been skewed by where he plays most of his away games at

about as much as his home numbers have been skewed.

Look at the parks of most of the Rox’ division rivals. Big pitchers paradises, with the exception of Chase Field.

Yes I know

But a contract like that is literally betting the franchise for the next 6-7 years, so I would prefer to make a safer bet. You can adjust the stats for parks, etc., all you want. On the average, the translations will hold up, but the sample size you’re betting on is one person. I like a little more reassurance.

I'd bet the franchise on Holliday. But I'm in a giddy mood.

Except its not betting the franchise.

as long as the rest of the team is kept under reins and managed appropriately.

And, Holliday isn’t a one trick pony. He’s not Manny Ramirez.

And, remember the natural trends of inflation…

Welcome to the (possibly) deflationary economy

If the economy stays in the toilet, I don’t see how salaries continue to increase.

I was having arguments with people last year who were saying their houses would be worth way more in a year, even if they were overpaying.

MrIncognito - November 11, 2008 reply

Tax breaks and government funded stadia?

Signing Furcal to a subsequent 4 year deal is betting the franchise.

The A’s have a farm system.

I don't know a whole lot about contract design/structure, but would this work:

If we front-loaded a contract for Holliday, say 6y / $120 mil (seems like a pretty acceptable figure that would fly with Boras), and pay Holliday significantly more in the first 3 years (when our payroll will be a lot lower anyways) I realize the “hit” on the payroll is the average, $20 million/year. But at that point, if we’re only paying Holliday the smaller amounts in the last three years, does it really matter the payroll hit (which is only on paper)? Basically the A’s payroll may be higher on paper but less coming out of pocket in the latter years of the contract…Does this seem like a feasible way to go about trying to extend him?

The problem is that once he's done with the frontloaded parts and the small part kicks in there's a real potential for unhappiness/restructuring demands

yea I see that side of the argument, but most guys would probably rather take

6/120 than 4/100, because after four years, they’re not guaranteed the other 20 if they fizzle out. So I guess front-loading would have to be the compensation one takes for getting that extra 20, albeit getting paid less in the latter years.

What is this, the NFL?

Holliday would absolutely be guaranteed the other 20.

I think he means that he could get injured after four and not have the additional 20 million he would have

..had he taken the 6 year deal

pretty much

One thing to keep in mind

No salary cap in MLB. There’s no need to “fit” a contract into a fixed budget, to pay a guy more, when the payroll is lower.

And there $20M today, is going to be worth more than $20M in 3 years time, not just from a standpoint of real world inflation, but also MLB inflation.

That amount that you’re not paying Holliday today can be either used on other players, or invested.

Another reason why signing Holliday now might be more prudent

because eventually the A’s will have to bite the bullet on somebody, somewhere down the line, if they want to try and sell the whole being contenders idea. They may be stuck paying more for less down the line.

Who knows, I like Holliday in an A’s uniform, and I don’t want the A’s to be married to a horrible contract for too many years, but I would be pretty bummed to see Holliday walk in a year, he seems like the right guy to “bet the franchise on” as somebody coined it earlier.

Mike Singletary: you are not a good head coach

Time to root for another 7 losses and getting a high draft pick.

Balderdash!

I like Singletary, and not just because linebackers are in general incredibly handsome and the best athletes on the field. Gimme summathat ooooold schoooool. I betcha it was Martz what called that last-second dive.

Whoever it was:

Please note, 3 pass plays > 2 running plays.

Depends on who is doing the passing

In this case, world class RB > fourth rate QB.

Michael Robinson is a world class RB?

No. That - I assume - was an attempt to surprise a defense expecting a spike.

We should absolutely have spiked the ball.

why would they be expecting a spike?

there was a review right before it, so there was plenty of time to set up the final play.
even the mnf crew were not expecting a spike.

because there was only time for one play, and it was third down

Spiking the ball allows a more leisurely snap, hard count, etc.

nevermoor - November 11, 2008 reply

Thank you

This was exactly my thought process. I don’t care if this was directly after a review— there’s time for only one play anyway. Spike it, get your bearings together completely, and make a well-thought-out decision. From 2 and 1/2 yards out, I want to see some play-action, a naked bootleg (Hill showed he had some quicks in that run for the first down earlier in the game), even a straight-ahead sweep. Shit, even fake a quick dive to Gore and pitch it out to Robinson, but don’t put a guy like Robinson—who is not a banger between the tackles—in that situation.

Blerg. Bad call, entertaining game. I just want to know who the hell they’re going to draft at QB at the end of the year, and if they’re going to be smart enough to let the kid sit for a while.

Hopefully Colt McCoy declares for the draft after Texas wins the NC.

mikev - November 11, 2008 reply

It's not his fault

I mean do the Niners even bother to practice end-of-game shots at the end-zone?

Why do we alway let go of the #1 prospects named...

…Carlos? It’s a latin conspiracy i tell ya!

Carlos Pena 2008 aka Carlos Gonzalez…..wish you well out in Corona Field, err Coors!

ST - November 10, 2008 reply

If he takes 7 years to develop, this is awesome.

Holliday!

ballin - November 10, 2008 reply

Celebrate!

A'sfansince1970 - November 10, 2008 reply

Butts in seats.

Given all the discussion, pro and con, going on here about the long-term v. short-term advantages of the trade, the one thing that has seemed to be missing (sorry if I haven’t read every single comment) is that signing Holliday, adding the big bat now, has the potential to add some attendance to the A’s home games. Which I think the A’s need to do as they’re trying to sell the Fremont stadium deal. If you add that plus all the tangible offensive pluses to the lineup in 2009, it could work out to be positive regardless of how CarGon progresses, Smith stabilizes, and Street’s slider bites in the thin CO air.

sslinger - November 10, 2008 reply

Agreed. Great trade.

Street was negative, CGon was unteachable and had no discipline at the plate, and Nibbles nibbled. Holliday is a great right handed bat and a smart player who will help us win games and teach the young guys. And I believe he will be signed long term. Let’s all be happy for a change!

Holliday in Oakland

First time that’s been seen on an 880 billboard.

True

California Highway employees are very punctilious about their spelling.

So, you two are dictionary salesmen?

You would be punctilious in assuming that.

Imagine how punctilious we would be if we were Blue Book salesmen

Car Gone!

Oh really?

Tell that to the City of ~~Millbrea~~ Millbrae

Logic says that Billy will be adding a few more components

to go with Holliday for 2009. No way he’s done after this pick up.

I think he felt CarGon was not going to be the superstar some of us thought because if he did, he would not be trading him. Greg Smith to me was nothing more than a #5 starter with a below average fastball. Huston Street was surplus as long as Devine stays healthy.

Let’s add Furcal at the top. Euthanize Crosby, Pray that Chavy is healthy or better still Take Stewart off the Rockies while we are dealing.

All this will help our pitching which currently is so so. I like Gallagher and think he will improve out of sight next year. Hope Duke is healthy and Eveland cuts the walks in half.

I am excited in anticipation of more trades.

Go A’s

Trainman - November 10, 2008 reply

I do think it's inaccurate to say Street was surplus

Yes, the team can probably absorb losing him and still have a solid bullpen. But can it now afford a key injury? Is it still especially deep? No. The team could afford to lose Street, but losing him will still hurt as he was a very good reliever.

He did pitch better the last month with a 1:74 ERA

I guess “surplus” was the wrong word to use.

Anyway, by adding Holliday to help the pitching, do you think that he is now going to add a pitcher or does he think the young pitching prospects are further ahead than first thought?

Trainman - November 10, 2008 reply

Or to put it in economic terms,

Street’s marginal value to the A’s was lower than his marginal value to many teams. Doesn’t mean it was zero, though. I’m projecting the loss of Street as giving back one full win that Holliday provides.

Not really seeing the logic of this one

Look, I’m all for having a big right-handed hitter, as the A’s haven’t had one since Tejada left.

But why now? The A’s aren’t serious contenders unless they add a lot more, including pitching that’s ready in 2009.

There is no reason to think the A’s will be able to sign Holliday now. Boras clients always wait for free agency and sign with the highest bidder. Should the A’s be the highest bidder for a guy in his 30s? You could make an argument for that, but I serioiusly doubt the team will be able to sign him.

I don’t really know Beane’s plan here. I guess it’s to add a bunch of talent and hope that things break our way next year?

I’ll say this. Billy Beane got my attention.

bear88 - November 10, 2008 reply

Maybe Nico is on to something?

NNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Sign an arm, add another bat via trade and maybe you’ve got something in 2009.

What would it take to land Beltre?

Cahill and Anderson...

I told ya’ll they’d be up in 2009. Believe.

I HOPE the A's do not rush Cahill/Anderson.

It would be bad if they don’t pan out. Like, really bad.

one of those two will be on the opening day roster...

the other will join it during 2009. Pitching problem solved.

Don't make me post the .jpg again...

What .jpg?

Can not see

Fail.

Odd, looks fine from my end

Link?

http://www.afforums.com/ppost/data/662/awjeez.jpg

link didn't work, either

OK

Just imagine I know how to post that “Aw, jeez, not this shit again” jpg.

I imagined that...

the first time you tried to post it.

Epic Fail

Olivia Munn: Yes, please

maybe it looks fine from your end...

because it’s on your computer. Nobody else can see it.

It's saved to your computer, not hosted on a web server.

which is why nobody else can see it.

was it apicture of Derek Lowe?

Cahill will not be on the opening day roster.

Stupid to have him up that early. Cahill has all of 37 innings beyond A-ball. He needs more time in AA/AAA before being called up.

Anderson was NOT dominant in the Olympics (less dominant than Cahill), and also has about 30 innings beyond A ball.

In conclusion

Putting a bandaid on current pitching issues is NOT worth screwing with the development of the A’s two best prospects.

ooops...

that didn’t work. ;-)

dude, how are you unable to successfully post images? it’s a lot easier than calculating vorp.

Gammons certainly thinks so

His article on ESPN.com echoes a lot of Holliday’s sentiment, although Gammons seems openly admiring of the move. Strangely, he makes no mention of Carlos Gonzalez’s potential worth. Maybe he really has lost a lot of esteem this past season. I personally don’t see it, but whateva, Billy does what he wants.

Check that, echoes a lot of OLNEY'S sentimentS

My take

The Way A’s fans SHOULD be looking at this is that the A’s consolidated value from fleeting talents and not-so-talented talents, Street and Smith, with CarGon to net a more valuable single piece. Id say the A’s can definitely swing Holliday for something worth a lot more than CarGon and, if nothing else, trading Holliday will be a lot easier than trading Street and CarGon for the same combined value. Couple that with the fact that there was a lot of risk with CarGon and I think its pretty clear the A’s are in a better position for 2010 now.

Then again, I never liked CarGon. Those that believe in him will inevitably dislike this trade and those that didn’t won’t. Also, I agree with the above, if it takes CarGon 4 years to develop into something than it doesn’t matter that we traded him, if it takes 0-2 years then OUCH

I liked CarGon...

I thought he was possibly the best defensive CF in baseball. Given a couple of years, he will be a Gold Glover, if he can stick offensively. I guess that’s why I’m okay with the trade. I’m not sure he would have. I did like Greg Smith, though.

I liked CarGone a lot...

and was looking forward to seeing him develop over the next 2 to 3 years as a super stud but you have to give up talent to get talent. Holiday is immediate proven top-notch talent and that is why I love this trade (although only if Holiday is signed to a multi-year deal immediately).

jdub69 - November 10, 2008 reply

http://www.mercurynews.com/athletics/ci_10952274

“I am excited about getting a chance to play in the A.L. West (and) I know at least one familiar face with (Mike) Gallego there,” Holliday said, referring to the new A’s third-base coach who spent the past four seasons in Colorado.

And LOL Huston first heard of this from Holliday
Although Street, 25, lost his closer’s job last season to Brad Ziegler, he finished strong and is the A’s most experienced ninth-inning reliever. But he has long been a trade target and, with the Rockies set to lose Brian Fuentes to free agency, they need a late-inning reliever. Street was playing in a charity golf tournament in Austin on Monday and was inundated with text messages when news of the possible trade broke.

One of the people he heard from, oddly enough, was Holliday. The two are friends.

But Street hadn’t yet heard from the A’s.

“I’m the same as everybody else, I’m just reading as this thing develops,” he said.

Trainman - November 10, 2008 reply

I wonder if Gags is part of a plan to extend the contract

CarGone is gone, but it's all good we're on Holliday

I love it. Go A’s!

oaklandSMASH - November 10, 2008 reply

Olney, as always, is an idiot

Video at the top of http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/clubhouse?team=oak

Didn't seem that bad.

I have concerns with the trade, but they aren't major concerns.

Mainly the (probable) one-year aspect of Holliday. Ok, if we don’t re-sign him we could get a couple draft picks. This does not impress me as much as it seems to impress others. I’m just not that enamored with never-ending building/rebuilding. Seems to me that that would just put off the alleged upcoming glory years that much more… and I see Gonzales as a player that could have been a long-term solution to making that a reality sooner rather than later, i.e. 2010 instead of 2012+.

Having said that, I do feel that this team is a couple good moves away from potentially contending, and I see this as the first of several planned moves that could very well bring this about. For those reasons, I think the one-year of Holliday aspect is a gamble, but a gamble worth taking.

Street, I feel is over-rated, so no big loss there, IMHO. He’s good, but replaceable.

Smith has encouraged me at times this year that he is open to learning to pitch and be more aggressive, and I think he will develop into a fine and serviceable starter, but he will probably never be a front line guy.

I absolutely love this thread.

Today has been a great AN day.

Hear, hear

A little bit of humor, a little bit of hope, a little bit of fear and loathing.

i'm surprised street hasnt been alerted

he’s the one with the injury issues and could need a physical before anyone else

could this trade hinge on first finding a trade for the rockies to move him on again..otherwise, A’s replace him with someone else in the deal…please no anderson

so who are the remaining trade bait?

crosby dump
patterson i’m convinced he can fill a 2b need for some teams like stl, az, etc
would A’s trade another reliever like cassilla?
OF is still pretty crowded, what do you ddo with a denorfia/murton?